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海外研究|当欧盟的“重新武装”遇到美国的“关税大棒”
中信证券研究· 2025-05-06 00:50
文 | 韦昕澄 崔嵘 李翀 贾天楚 "美国优先"的卷土重来正促使欧盟迈向"战略觉醒"的时代,白宫加征关税的措施则让欧盟经济暌违已久的复苏前景日益扑朔迷离。我们预计美国 加征关税对欧盟经济的负面冲击可能会比财政扩张的正面提振更早显现,直至今年四季度起后者的积极影响会逐渐抵消并超越关税的消极影响。 当"重新武装"遇到"关税大棒",欧盟财政扩张的前景较明确、欧美之间的关税博弈过程则可能会较坎坷,投资者在此期间审慎的态度与灵活的策 略都很重要,既需留意博弈进展反复对风险资产的掣肘,也可考虑在避险情绪浓厚时适度逢低布局、等待下一个"Tr ump Pu t "的惊喜。 ▍ "美国优先"的卷土重来正促使欧盟迈向"战略觉醒"的时代。 特朗普政府的单边主义正加重欧洲各国的焦虑心态,欧盟内部增加国防开支的主张逐渐成为共识。德国约一万亿欧元"不惜一切代价"的财政扩 张方案已完成立法流程,待新政府组阁后即可商议细节。欧盟约八千亿欧元的"重新武装欧洲"提议也正如火如荼推进,各成员国的国家例外条 款(NEC)激活申请计划于7月获批。然而,白宫近来的加征关税措施显著冲淡了欧洲财政增支计划的光彩,目前美国对欧盟的钢铝关税、汽 车关税和1 0 ...
各中央企业扎实开展学习教育——以优良作风凝心聚力、干事创业
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-05-05 22:00
深入贯彻中央八项规定精神学习教育开展以来,国务院国资委党委精心研究谋划、迅速启动部署,引领 带动国资央企学习教育走深走实。各中央企业聚焦主题,注重实效,一体推进学查改,以优良作风凝心 聚力、干事创业。 抓好学习研讨,提高思想觉悟 "一幅幅生动的图片、一句句发人深省的名言警句、一个个模范人物的典型故事,触及心灵。"日前,中 国移动山西公司党风廉政教育展馆里,一场面向党员干部、青年员工的"云直播"正在进行。 学习教育中,中国移动党组建立党组领学、干部轮学、支部研学、网格讲学的多层次学习机制,不断提 升学习教育的针对性、实效性。 连日来,各中央企业抓好学习研讨,深入学习领会习近平总书记关于加强党的作风建设的重要论述和中 央八项规定及其实施细则精神,引导党员干部锤炼党性、提高思想觉悟。 中国华电党组召开会议,强调坚持读原著、学原文、悟原理,将学习教育的有关内容纳入各类培训安 排,确保学习教育全覆盖、无死角。党组理论学习中心组举办专题读书班,深入研读《习近平关于加强 党的作风建设论述摘编》,党组领导班子交流学习体会。各基层党支部通过"三会一课"、主题党日等开 展学习,引导党员干部深学细悟,为查摆问题、集中整治打牢思想政 ...
【广发宏观贺骁束】4月高频数据与五一假期最新变化
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-05-05 11:59
广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一, 4月工业部门开工率同比涨跌互现,其中钢铁、焦化等内需链仍偏强,外需相关度较高的纺服产业链 率开工率呈回落迹象。截至4月第四周,全国247家高炉开工率(期末值,下同)同比增长3.7pct;焦化企业 开工率同比增长8.8pct。苯乙烯开工率同比增长1.7pct;PVC开工率同比增长1.8pct。汽车半钢胎开工率同 比回落2.9pct,全钢胎开工率同比回落1.0pct。PTA江浙织机负荷率同比回落9.0pct,环比回落5.8pct;涤 纶长丝江浙织机开工率同比回落17.3pct,环比回落8.5pct。纺服产业链开工率回落的情况和PMI数据也较为 匹配,在报告《哪些行业景气度逆势上行:4月PMI简析》中,我们指出:从出口订单来看,纺服、化工、中 游装备制造降幅最大。 第二, 4月建筑资金到位率延续改善,传统基建相关实物工作量仍偏弱,电力侧实物开工相对偏强。据百年 建筑调研,截至4月29日,全国工地资金到位率58.8%,相较3月末环比回升0.9pct,非房建、房建项目资金 到位率环比分别增长0.8、1.7pct。 ...
为一场比赛,奔赴一座城!赛事经济如何跑出“新赛道”?
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing significance of sports events in driving urban economic growth and highlights the need for cities to leverage sports events to stimulate consumption and enhance development opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Sports Events - Sports events are becoming a crucial part of urban development, serving as a key driver for economic growth and fulfilling the public's demand for a better quality of life [2][3]. - The current structure of China's sports events is suboptimal, with issues such as supply-demand imbalance and low spectator engagement, indicating that the economic potential of sports events has not been fully realized [2][3]. - The hosting of major sports events leads to significant economic benefits, as evidenced by the Chengdu Universiade generating 43.83 billion yuan in related consumption and the Hangzhou Asian Games contributing 48.96 billion yuan [5][6]. Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The "one event, one city" model exemplifies how sports events can enhance urban infrastructure, with examples like the transformation of Shougang Park into a sports consumption space following the Beijing Winter Olympics [3][4]. - Major sports events catalyze rapid urban infrastructure development, which in turn supports the hosting of future events and enhances the city's overall appeal [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Structure Adjustment - The integration of sports events with other industries is essential for fostering new business models and enhancing urban economic structures [4][5]. - Initiatives like the "Follow the Event to Travel" campaign in Hebei Province illustrate how sports events can stimulate tourism and related industries, thereby promoting economic diversification [4][5]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Spending - Sports events drive various forms of consumer spending, including ticket purchases, travel expenses, and related retail consumption, which collectively boost local economies [5][6]. - The economic impact of events is amplified during peak seasons, as seen during the Hangzhou Asian Games coinciding with national holidays, leading to increased consumer spending [5][6]. Group 5: Challenges and Considerations - The economic benefits of sports events can lead to displacement effects, where increased spending on events reduces expenditures in other sectors like tourism and dining [8]. - The concentration of sports events in certain cities can create regional disparities, potentially leading to underdevelopment in neighboring areas [8][9]. Group 6: Future Directions - Increasing the number of sports events and optimizing resource allocation are critical for building a robust urban sports event ecosystem [10][11]. - Emphasizing green development in sports event planning can align with broader urban sustainability goals, promoting eco-friendly practices in venue construction and event management [12][13].
非农报告超预期,细节暗示关税影响!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-02 12:52
Group 1 - The latest non-farm payroll report indicates that the U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding the expected 130,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, aligning with market expectations [1] - Average hourly wage growth year-over-year was recorded at 3.8%, slightly below the expected 3.9% [1] Group 2 - The revisions for February and March non-farm employment numbers showed a downward adjustment of 58,000 jobs combined [1] - The healthcare, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance sectors continued to see job growth [3] - The construction sector added 11,000 jobs, which was anticipated due to expected spring activity [3] Group 3 - The transportation and warehousing sector added 29,000 jobs, potentially indicating an increase in tariffs [3] - Average hourly wage growth was slightly below expectations at 0.2%, compared to the anticipated 0.3% [3] - Year-over-year wage growth of 3.8% outpaced consumer price inflation, leading to real income growth [3]
中国光谷崛起“国之重器” ——探访汉江国家实验室科研总部项目
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-05-01 22:01
Core Insights - The construction of the Hanjiang National Laboratory in Wuhan is progressing rapidly, with a focus on addressing key technological challenges for national strategic needs [1][3] - The project aims to gather over 2,000 high-end research talents and attract investments exceeding 10 billion yuan [1] - The laboratory will serve as a significant part of China's strategic scientific force and is expected to enhance Wuhan's status as a national innovation center [1] Construction Progress - The project officially started in September last year and covers an area of approximately 210,000 square meters, including various functional zones [1] - The construction is on track to complete the topping out of all five buildings by the end of June this year [1] - The first research tower is currently under construction, with workers installing steel structures on the 11th floor [1] Technological Innovations - A unique tower crane, developed by China State Construction Engineering Corporation, is being utilized, which integrates 5G technology for real-time monitoring, significantly reducing operational risks [2] - The crane can complete tasks in 90 minutes that would traditionally take four hours, showcasing advancements in construction efficiency [2] Project Management - The project employs a digital management system to optimize resource allocation and enhance construction speed [3] - High standards are set for the laboratory's construction, with specific requirements for seismic resistance, cleanliness, and electromagnetic shielding [3] - The laboratory is part of a broader initiative in Hubei to establish a robust scientific research framework, including one national laboratory and multiple research institutions [3]
川台携手共育发展新动能
川台产业合作推进会、川台青年就业创业发展交流会、巴蜀文化艺术季、"掌上蜀show·舌尖上的四 川"两岸新媒体创意拍摄……在日前举行的2025海峡两岸融合发展四川交流会中,丰富多彩的活动让两 岸嘉宾有机会充分交流沟通、畅谈合作机遇。 本次活动以"共育新动能·融合促发展"为主题。中共中央台办、国务院台办主任宋涛在开幕式上致辞表 示,我们始终尊重、关爱、造福台湾同胞,将继续完善促进两岸经济文化交流合作制度和政策,扩大两 岸交流交往,深化两岸融合发展,支持台商台企扎根大陆更好发展。 "对饕客,成都是一个美食的天堂,麻辣鲜香的口感令人难忘;对年轻人,成都是一个创业的福地,每 个年轻人都想成为下一个'饺子';对企业家,成都是一个投资兴业的宝地,它的资源禀赋优异,产业种 类齐全,更是欧亚大陆的重要联结点。"多次赴川的全国台企联会长李政宏生动概括了四川和成都的独 特优势。 畅谈合作机遇 关注青年成长 看好大陆发展 "四川与台湾虽远隔千里,但两地情谊深厚、交往合作密切。"开幕式上,四川省委书记王晓晖说,近年 来,四川全面深化川台各领域合作交流,与台湾同胞共享四川现代化建设新机遇。 两岸企业家峰会台湾方面理事长刘兆玄表示,两岸在 ...
“成绩单”揭晓:2024年沪市主板公司合计营收49.57万亿元 净利润4.35万亿元
Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's main board companies demonstrated strong resilience and stability in 2024, achieving a total operating revenue of 49.57 trillion yuan and a net profit of 4.35 trillion yuan, supported by a series of incremental policies [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the total operating revenue of the main board companies was 49.57 trillion yuan, maintaining stability year-on-year; net profit reached 4.35 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9% [2]. - Approximately 80% of companies reported profits, with 40% experiencing year-on-year net profit growth; over 230 companies saw net profit increases exceeding 30%, and 78 companies turned losses into profits [2]. - The annual trend showed a decline in net profit of 1% in the first half, followed by a significant recovery with a 5% increase in the second half; operating cash flow improved notably, with a 15% year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter [2]. Group 2: Stability and Growth - Over the past five years, the main board's operating revenue and net profit have both seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% [3]. - A total of 744 "long-distance running" companies achieved positive compound growth in both revenue and net profit over five years, contributing nearly 70% of total revenue and over 80% of total profit [3]. - Key sectors such as finance, energy, construction, and transportation played a significant role, contributing over 80% of profits, while emerging sectors like automotive, biomedicine, and intelligent manufacturing showed a net profit CAGR of 10% over three years [3]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - In the past decade, the proportion of companies in emerging industries such as electronics, communications, biomedicine, and automotive has risen to 40%, with the number of firms in sectors like semiconductors and new energy vehicles doubling [4]. - Emerging industries contributed over 40% of net profits in manufacturing and services, with a net profit CAGR of 11%, outperforming traditional industries by 5 percentage points [4]. - In 2024, industries such as electronics, communications, and automotive saw net profit growth of 11%, 6%, and 4% respectively, driven by trends in AI technology, cloud computing, and electrification [4]. Group 4: R&D Investment - In 2024, R&D investment by companies on the main board exceeded 1 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 40% of national R&D expenditure [5]. - The main board's entities invested approximately 920 billion yuan in R&D, with 723 companies investing over 100 million yuan [5]. - Companies with R&D investments exceeding 1 billion yuan and a CAGR above 5% over three years saw average net profit growth outperforming the overall level by 3.6 to 6.1 percentage points [5]. Group 5: Dividends and Shareholder Returns - In 2024, 1,259 companies on the main board announced cash dividends, with a total dividend amount of 1.77 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% [7]. - The overall dividend payout ratio reached 39%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points year-on-year, with 1,041 companies distributing over 30% of their profits as dividends [7]. - A trend of multiple dividends within a year emerged, with 366 companies implementing interim dividends totaling 574.9 billion yuan, marking a significant increase [7]. Group 6: Share Buybacks and Support Measures - In 2024, the number of disclosed share buyback plans reached 400, and important shareholder buyback plans reached 380, both doubling year-on-year [8]. - The total amount for proposed buybacks and increases reached 843 billion yuan and 537 billion yuan respectively, showing significant growth [8]. - Since the introduction of special loans in September 2024, 205 companies disclosed buyback plans utilizing these loans, with a total loan amount exceeding 52 billion yuan [8].
唱响红旗渠精神的劳动赞歌
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-04-30 22:01
Group 1 - The Red Flag Canal, completed 60 years ago, transformed the water supply situation in Lin County, now Linzhou, alleviating water scarcity for 567,000 people and 370,000 livestock, increasing irrigated land from less than 10,000 acres to 600,000 acres [11][12] - Over the past 60 years, the canal has delivered over 13 billion cubic meters of water, irrigating farmland over 47 million acres and contributing to an increase in grain production by 8 billion pounds [12][16] - The Red Flag Canal has become a symbol of resilience and determination, inspiring local communities to tackle challenges and pursue development opportunities, such as rural tourism [14][15] Group 2 - The construction of the Red Flag Canal involved 100,000 laborers over a decade, who carved out 1,500 kilometers of waterway through difficult terrain, showcasing the spirit of hard work and collaboration [6][11] - The canal's legacy continues to influence local industries, with many businesses in Linzhou drawing inspiration from the Red Flag Canal spirit, emphasizing quality and responsibility in construction [28][29] - The Red Flag Canal has also become a focal point for tourism, with visitor numbers increasing annually, reflecting the growing interest in the region's history and achievements [29]
5400余家公司交出稳健“答卷”
本报记者 孙杰 作为国民经济的基本盘,A股上市公司去年交出一份稳健答卷。截至昨天,除个别企业延迟披露外,A 股已有5405家上市公司发布2024年年度报告。总的来看,超56%的公司实现营业总收入增长,超47%的 公司实现归母净利润增长,4029家公司实现盈利。 117家公司营收迈过千亿大关 据统计,目前已披露年报的5405家上市公司,合计实现营业总收入71.92万亿元,同比下降1.07%;归属 于母公司股东净利润合计5.21万亿元,同比下降1.51%。 从各板块看,主板、创业板、科创板、北交所2024年营业收入分别为65.94万亿元、4.01万亿元、1.42万 亿元和0.18万亿元,较上年增幅分别为-0.39% 、2.73%、0.23%和-1.68%;净利润分别为5.03万亿元、 0.22万亿元、0.05万亿元和0.011万亿元,分别下降1.4%、10.89%、39.8%和21.99%。 企业营收座次也随之出炉。去年,共有7家企业的营业收入超过1万亿元。其中,"两桶油"绝对领跑,中 国石化、中国石油营业收入分别达30745.62亿元、29379.81亿元。中国建筑以21871.48亿元位居第三。 中国中铁、中 ...