Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Credit demand is generally weak, and the loan growth rate is expected to continue to slow. The bond market will maintain a volatile recovery trend, and the 10-year Treasury bond rate (old active bond) is expected to recover to the pre-adjustment level of 1.6%-1.65% by the end of the year [1][6]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Credit Situation - In October, the new credit was 22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28 billion yuan, and the new credit scale has decreased year-on-year for four consecutive months. Except for bill financing, the new scale of medium and long-term loans for residents and enterprises decreased year-on-year to varying degrees, and short-term corporate loans were the same as the previous value [1][9]. - In terms of corporate credit, the new corporate credit in October was 35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22 billion yuan, mainly due to bill financing. The new medium and long-term corporate loans were 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14 billion yuan; short-term corporate loans were -19 billion yuan, the same as the previous year; bill financing was 50.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.12 billion yuan [2][9]. - In terms of household loans, the new household loans in October were -36.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.04 billion yuan in reduction. The new medium and long-term household loans were -7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18 billion yuan in reduction; short-term household loans were -28.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.56 billion yuan in reduction. Short-term loans have decreased year-on-year for four consecutive months, and real estate sales have continued to decline since mid-October, indicating weak social terminal demand [2][9]. Social Financing Situation - The growth rate of social financing further declined. In October, the new social financing was 81.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.71 billion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. The issuance of government bonds was stable, with a new scale of 48.93 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 70 billion yuan and a year-on-year decrease of 56.02 billion yuan [3][13]. - Assuming that 1 trillion yuan of next year's issuance quota is issued in the fourth quarter of this year, it is estimated that government bonds from November to December will still decrease year-on-year. By the end of the year, the social financing growth rate may drop to about 8.3% [3][13]. Money Supply Situation - In October, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 dropped from 7.2% to 6.2%, partly due to the base effect and partly related to the outflow of household deposits. The two-year compound growth rate of M1 in October was 1.85%, basically the same as the previous value. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month [4][17]. Deposit and Loan Situation - In October, new deposits were 61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1 billion yuan. The stock index broke through 4,000 points on October 29, and household and corporate deposits may have flowed to non-bank institutions. Household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 770 billion yuan in reduction; corporate deposits decreased by 1.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 355.3 billion yuan in reduction; non-bank deposits increased by 1.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 770 billion yuan [5][19]. - The overall deposit growth rate in October was 8.0% year-on-year, the same as the previous month, while the loan growth rate dropped slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 6.5%. The gap between deposit and loan growth rates widened to 1.5 percentage points, indicating a continued asset shortage [5][19]. Bond Market Situation - The broad-spectrum interest rate continued to decline, and the bond market continued to recover in a volatile manner. The year-on-year growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 all declined in October, and household credit decreased, indicating a weak recovery in the current fundamentals. The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile recovery trend, and the interest rate is expected to decline more smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter [6][21].

风险提示：货币政策的不确定性、外部环境不确定性 宏 观 研 究 近几个月，企业和居民端信贷表现持续偏弱，不过央行已明确淡化对贷款数量目标 的关注。而且全年经济目标完成压力已不大，临近年底，政策重心转向存量工具落 地与效果观察，增量刺激的紧迫性阶段性下降，或要等待明年进一步部署发力。 投资要点： | | 021-23185645 | | --- | --- | | | yingjiaxian@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040060 | | | 贺媛(分析师) | | | 021-23185639 | | | heyuan3@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040129 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 做好逆周期和跨周期调节 2025.11.12 核心通胀缘何持续攀升 2025.11.09 出口：低增速会持续吗 2025.11.07 弱通胀助力美联储降息 2025.10.2 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 10 月稳增长政策发力带动委托贷款走高，M1 增速继续处于较快增长水平 ——2025 年 10 月金融数据点评 王青 李晓峰 冯琳 事件：2025 年 11 月 13 日，央行公布的数据显示，2025 年 10 月新增人民币贷款 2200 亿，同比少增 2800 亿；10 月新增社会融资规模为 8150 亿，同比少增 5970 亿；10 月末，广义货币(M2)同比增长 8.2%， 增速较上月末低 0.2 个百分点；狭义货币(M1)同比增长 6.2%，增速较上月末低 1.0 个百分点。 基本观点： 总体上看，10 月新增贷款规模大幅走低，符合季节性规律，同比较大幅度少增主要是受新增居民贷款 大幅多减拖累。背后反映当前居民消费偏弱、房地产市场持续调整带来的影响，特别是 10 月一些地方国 补资金收紧；与此同时，三季度以来经济下行压力有所加大，10 月出口转为同比负增长，与个体经营相关 的居民短期、中长期经营贷需求也会减弱。10 月企业中长期贷款继续同比少增，除需求偏弱、隐债置换扰 动外，可能与新型政策性金融工具对企业中长期贷款的拉动效应还未充分体现有关。10 月稳增长政策发力， 主要在社融中的委 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financing structure of enterprises in China is shifting from reliance on bank loans to a more diversified approach that includes bonds and stocks, reflecting changes in the economic and financial landscape [1][2]. Financing Structure - As of October 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing reached 30.9 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 14.52 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan year-on-year [1]. - Net financing through corporate bonds was 1.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 136.1 billion yuan year-on-year, while government bonds saw net financing of 11.95 trillion yuan, up 372 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. - Other financing methods, excluding loans, accounted for over half of the total social financing increase this year, with government bonds nearing a 40% share [1]. Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - M2 (broad money) balance reached 335.13 trillion yuan at the end of October, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%. M1 (narrow money) balance was 112 trillion yuan, growing by 6.2% year-on-year [4]. - The M1-M2 spread was -2%, indicating a shift towards more funds being converted into demand deposits, reflecting increased business activity and consumer demand [4]. - The overall economic performance remains stable, with the composite PMI output index at 50.0% and the non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.1%, indicating expansion [6]. Loan Growth and Structure - In the first ten months, RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.55 trillion yuan compared to the previous year. The loan interest rates have remained low, indicating a generally sufficient supply of credit resources [10]. - Corporate loans increased by 350 billion yuan in October, with a year-on-year increase of 220 billion yuan. However, there was a decrease in short-term loans by 190 billion yuan and a slight increase in medium to long-term loans [10]. - Residential loans decreased by 360.4 billion yuan in October, with both short-term and medium to long-term loans showing significant year-on-year reductions [11]. Future Outlook - The focus of future policies will be on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, with an emphasis on increasing social security spending, stabilizing employment, and improving income levels [12]. - The implementation of supportive policies for small and medium-sized enterprises is expected to enhance credit demand and improve the overall credit structure [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan, and the credit balance growth rate dropped to 6.5%. The new social financing scale was 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan, and the social financing stock growth rate declined from 8.7% to 8.5%. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 decreased from 8.4% to 8.2% due to the base effect, and the growth rate of the new M1 caliber dropped from 7.2% to 6.2%. Overall, October is a small month for credit at the beginning of the quarter, mainly relying on on-balance-sheet bills to make up for the shortfall. Among them, short-term household loans are the main drag, and the "shopping festival" effect has limited driving force. In the fourth quarter, due to the high base of government bond issuance, the growth rate of social financing continues to decline. The M2 growth rate slightly declines, with non-bank deposits being the main supporting item, and the M1 growth rate ends its six-month upward trend [1][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Credit: Short-term Household Loans as the Main Drag, and Long-term Corporate Loans Weakening - **Household Sector**: In October, short-term household loans decreased by 286.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 335.6 billion yuan, continuing to be significantly lower than the seasonal level. Long-term household loans decreased by 70 billion yuan, recording a negative growth for the first time in recent years, a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion yuan. The month-on-month sprint effect of new and second-hand housing sales is not significant. Under the high base and policy stability, the overall sales performance is weaker than that in September [2][10]. - **Corporate Sector**: In October, long-term corporate loans only increased by 30 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 140 billion yuan. The relatively strong corporate loans at the end of September may have partially overdrawn the quota for October. Coupled with the limited driving force of policy-based financial instruments and the approach of the economic "off-season" at the end of the year, it is difficult for long-term corporate loans to have a significant increase. In terms of bills, bill financing increased by 500.6 billion yuan in the same month, a year-on-year increase of 331.2 billion yuan, and the demand for bills to "make up for the shortfall" significantly increased [2][15]. Social Financing: The Support of Government Bonds Declines at the End of the Year, and Entrusted Loans Increase - **Government Bonds**: The issuance of government bonds decreased in October, with new government bonds of 489.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 560.2 billion yuan. In the fourth quarter, it enters the off-season for bond issuance. The net financing of government bonds from November to December may be 1.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1 trillion yuan. The growth rate of social financing may decline to around 8.2% by the end of the year [3][17]. - **Entrusted Loans and Undiscounted Bills**: Driven by the "500 billion" policy-based financial instruments, entrusted loans increased by 165.3 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 187.2 billion yuan, becoming an important supporting item for social financing. In addition, undiscounted bills decreased by 289.4 billion yuan in October, 149.8 billion yuan lower than the same period last year. Due to the relatively strong credit performance in September, the conversion of undiscounted bills to on-balance-sheet was limited. In October, banks' concentrated "ticket grabbing" in the secondary market led to a significant decrease in off-balance-sheet bills [3][23]. Deposits: High Growth of Non-bank Deposits, Possibly Driven by Both Wealth Management Growth and the Equity Market - **M1 and M2 - M1 Spread**: The month-on-month increase of the new M1 caliber was lower than that of the same period last year, and the M2 - M1 spread slightly widened. In October last year, there was a high base for M1. In October, the new M1 caliber decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, 1.0 trillion yuan more than the decrease in 2024. In terms of growth rate, the year-on-year reading of M1 decreased from 7.2% to 6.2% [4][27]. - **Non-bank Deposits and Household Deposits**: Among the M2 components, non-bank deposits increased significantly beyond the seasonal level again, while household deposits were slightly lower than the historical average. By sector, non-bank deposits increased by 1.85 trillion yuan in October, 770 billion yuan more than the same period in 2024. Household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan in the same month, 770 billion yuan more than the decrease in the same period last year. Since October, the equity market has continued to be strong, and the growth of wealth management product scale at the beginning of the quarter may jointly drive the decrease in household deposits and the significant increase in non-bank deposits [4][31].

Core Viewpoint - The global trade system is undergoing an irreversible green restructuring, with sustainability becoming a core element of market access and competition, and China is actively contributing to the formation of a global green trade system [1][3][6]. Group 1: Global Green Trade Trends - The global green transition is shifting from conceptual consensus to institutional construction, recognizing that trade systems must support sustainable development alongside economic growth [3][4]. - Sustainability is being elevated to a normative goal equal to fairness and openness in international trade principles, as seen in discussions among WTO members [3][4]. - The integration of carbon emissions into trade considerations is increasing, with practices like the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) becoming more common [4][5]. Group 2: China's Role in Green Trade - China is a steadfast practitioner of green transition, establishing competitive advantages in renewable energy, energy storage, and electric vehicles, thus providing key momentum for the global green supply chain [6][7]. - The country is actively participating in international rule-making, promoting cooperation in green standards, green finance, and green industrial chains [6][7]. Group 3: Implementation of Green Trade Policies - The issuance of the "Implementation Opinions" aligns with global green trade trends and China's strategic role, focusing on low-carbon transformation in foreign trade products [13][14]. - The policy emphasizes integrating carbon footprint management and product standards into international systems, enhancing China's global competitiveness in industries like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [14][15]. - Financial policies are shifting to support the green transformation of export-oriented enterprises, with the People's Bank of China including green trade in its green finance support scope [15][16]. Group 4: Market and Financial Mechanisms - The national carbon market has expanded to cover over 60% of total CO2 emissions, enhancing market support for green transition [11]. - The green electricity trading and green certificate systems provide flexible options for enterprises to meet emission reduction obligations, with significant growth in green electricity trading volumes [11][12]. - The government is building a comprehensive green support system across products, industries, finance, and markets, facilitating deeper integration of domestic actions with global green trade [12][13]. Group 5: Global Governance and Cooperation - The "Implementation Opinions" reflect China's strategic shift from domestic green manufacturing to shaping international green advantages, responding to the institutionalization of global green transition [13][17]. - China aims to participate in global carbon trade rule negotiations through multilateral mechanisms, promoting inclusive and fair international green trade rules [17]. - The formation of a global green trade system is seen as a critical step towards sustainable development, requiring cooperation and gradual advancement rather than confrontation [17].

Group 1 - Starbucks is facing new strike threats, including actions planned for Red Cup Day, as unionized baristas demand higher wages and better staffing, which poses operational and reputational risks to the company's profitability efforts [2] - Baidu's chairman, Li Yanhong, addressed concerns about an AI bubble, stating that the AI industry structure is shifting from an unhealthy "pyramid" to a healthier "inverted pyramid," where models and applications must generate significantly more value than the underlying chips [3] - Cai Fang from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences emphasized the need for reform in the pension system and elderly care industry to address the challenges posed by an aging population in China [4] Group 2 - The Japan Exchange Group is reportedly considering measures to limit the growth of listed companies managing digital assets due to concerns over cryptocurrency accumulation, including tightening reverse listing regulations and requiring new audits [5][6] - Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory achieved its highest monthly export record in two years, exporting over 35,000 vehicles in October 2025, with Model Y exports increasing by 214% year-on-year, reflecting strong global demand [7] - Chery Automobile issued an apology following an incident during an extreme challenge test at Tianmen Mountain, highlighting the importance of safety in such events [8] Group 3 - Several banks have raised the threshold for gold accumulation deposits to 1,500 yuan, the highest in history, in response to gold prices returning to $4,100 per ounce, with some banks adopting a dynamic pricing model [9] - China Resources Land announced a placement of 49.5 million shares of China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services, expecting net proceeds of approximately HKD 2.06 billion, to be used for land acquisition and general working capital [10] - Japan's corporate goods price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in October, slightly above expectations, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [11] Group 4 - Xiaomi is set to open its first direct store in Paris, expanding its presence in France after previously exiting due to the pandemic [12] - Various regions in China are intensifying efforts to stabilize economic growth in the fourth quarter, focusing on boosting consumption and accelerating major project investments [13] - Microsoft plans to leverage its access to OpenAI's custom chip technology to enhance its internal chip development projects, with a long-term agreement in place for continued collaboration [14][15]

据悉，本届大会将呈现四大亮点： 一是前瞻性议题，全方位分析金融发展。在议题设置上，大会围绕"金融强国"目标与粤港澳大湾区金融开放，精心设计了"1+4+8"议程体系。开幕式以"金融 强国建设与大湾区高水平对外开放"为主题，强化深圳在新发展格局中的金融支撑与链接功能；四场全体大会分别聚焦"科技创新与国际产融结合""全球金融 市场与政策创新""金融开放与世界经济展望"等核心议题，致力于为深圳探索制度型开放、完善金融市场体系提供理论支撑和实践方案；多场平行会议覆盖 金融文化、跨境生态、保险投资、企业出海与金融人才培养等专业领域，着力构建支持深圳金融高质量发展的全方位研讨体系，助力深圳在现代金融生态培 育和国际化进程中走在前列。 二是嘉宾云集，汇聚全球智慧。大会嘉宾构成具有广泛的代表性与高度的专业性，与会嘉宾来自中央财办、央行、中国证监会、香港证监会、香港交易所等 政策部门，中国进出口银行、中国银行、招商银行、北京银行、中信证券、华润金控、西班牙对外银行等金融机构，中国社会科学院、清华大学、北京大 学、中国人民大学等科研院所，以及国际货币基金组织（IMF）、国际清算银行（BIS）、环球银行金融电信协会（SWIFT）等国 ...

聚焦创新形式，构建多元化普法载体。该行以央行法律服务站为抓手，法律事务部门联合3名外聘律 师，解答干部职工法律问题150余次。依托乡村振兴服务点等阵地普及与中国人民银行履职等20余项相 关法律法规。通过新媒体、报刊媒介、业务大厅电子显示屏等进行金融普法宣传。落实"谁执法谁普 法"责任制，创建金融普法宣教作品24个，将法治央行相关内容融入祁阳渔鼓、零陵花鼓戏中进行宣 传，将存款保险与地方特色相结合，增强普法宣传的趣味性，线上互动覆盖人次突破3万人，线下活动 吸引5000余名群众参与。 聚焦法治实践，构建浸润式普法场景。该行将金融普法与履职重点工作深度结合，在开展金融纠纷调 解、征信争议源头治理、行政执法等过程中，借助不同场景进行浸润式普法。坚持和发展新时代"枫桥 经验"，推进金融消费纠纷多元化解机制建设，积极开展诉调对接，线上视频调解，签署调解协议、司 法确认全流程在线办理，完成全国首例"总对总"平台线上调解成功的金融纠纷案件。对开展执法检查的 金融机构开展"回头看"，宣讲金融政策和中国人民银行履职相关法律法规，进一步巩固提升行政执法质 效。在辖内开展征信争议源头治理专项行动，构建"行动+监管+服务"三位一体源 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year, with a gain of 0.73%[2] - The ChiNext Index surged over 2.5%, outperforming the Shanghai 50 Index which rose by 0.96%[1] - The market showed a broad upward trend, with significant gains in sectors like lithium batteries, chemicals, energy, and metals[1] Capital Flow - On November 13, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange were 38.528 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net inflows of 38.647 billion yuan[3] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were batteries, semiconductors, and energy metals, while the largest outflows were from electricity, state-owned banks, and joint-stock banks[3] Industry Trends - The lithium battery industry is benefiting from rapid growth in the energy storage market and rising raw material prices, attracting significant capital attention[1] - The demand for electricity is expected to rise due to increasing computational power needs driven by artificial intelligence, indicating potential growth in the power industry, including lithium batteries and green energy[1] Investment Strategy - Short-term investors are advised to focus on sector rotation and increase trading frequency while avoiding stocks with rapid price increases[1] - For medium to long-term investors, the emphasis should remain on industry trends, particularly in the domestic technology sector, which still holds substantial growth potential[1] Economic Developments - The Western Land-Sea New Corridor's foreign trade grew by 17.9% year-on-year, with imports and exports reaching 1.35 trillion yuan from January to October[5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is working on policies to support the development of specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises[4]