Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in industrial production, construction activity, and freight volume, indicating a slight recovery in industrial production and construction, while highlighting the ongoing challenges in the real estate market and fluctuations in freight metrics [2][5][53]. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production has shown a slight recovery, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing by 0.8% year-on-year [2][5]. - The chemical production chain has seen improvements, with soda ash and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 3.3 percentage points to -2.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 6%, respectively [2][17]. - The automotive sector has also experienced improvements, with semi-steel tire operating rates up by 3.2 percentage points to -3.1% [2][17]. Group 2: Construction Activity - Construction activity has shown signs of recovery, with the national grinding operating rate increasing by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year to -2.3% [2][29]. - Cement shipment rates have significantly improved, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points to -0.6% [2][29]. - Despite a slight decline in asphalt operating rates, they remain higher than the same period last year, indicating overall stability in construction activity [2][29]. Group 3: Freight Volume and Demand - Real estate transactions remain low, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year to -26% [2][53]. - Freight volume has seen a recovery, with port cargo throughput and container throughput increasing by 1.3 percentage points to 8% and 4.4 percentage points to 5.2%, respectively [2][65]. - The migration scale index has increased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year to 17.4%, indicating stronger movement of people [2][77]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are generally weak, with pork, vegetables, and fruit prices declining by 0.1%, 0.1%, and 1.0% respectively, while egg prices have slightly increased by 0.1% [3][107]. - Industrial product prices have generally risen, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index increasing by 1.0% [3][119]. - The energy and chemical price index rose by 0.9%, and the metal price index also increased by 1.0% [3][119].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of "anti-involution" policies is driving a significant rally in the domestic industrial commodity futures market, with various products experiencing substantial price increases. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 23, multiple commodity futures, including polysilicon, coking coal, and coke, saw substantial gains, with polysilicon futures reaching a new high of 5.3165 yuan/ton [1] - Polysilicon futures have recorded a cumulative increase of over 60% for the month, with a weekly increase exceeding 19% [2] - Coking coal futures also experienced a surge, with the main contract reaching a five-month high of 1135.5 yuan/ton [2] Group 2: Policy Impact - The market sentiment has shifted positively due to anticipated policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to release a work plan focusing on structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity in ten key industries [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the positive market sentiment, there are concerns regarding the actual supply-demand balance, particularly in the polysilicon market, where the supply-demand contradiction remains unresolved [4] - Current market conditions indicate that while polysilicon prices are rising, the overall demand from downstream sectors is still weak, leading to cautious optimism about the sustainability of the price increases [6][7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the current rally is driven by policy expectations, the actual impact of these policies on supply and demand will be critical in determining the market's future trajectory [4][6] - The coal and coke markets are expected to transition from a state of oversupply to a more balanced condition, supported by high profits in steel production [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Slightly Bearish [2] - Silicomanganese: Slightly Bullish [4] - Ferrosilicon: Slightly Bullish [4] 2. Core Views - The coal supply disruption has led to an increase in commodity valuations [1] - The market sentiment for glass and soda ash is optimistic, with prices continuing to rise [1] - The market sentiment for silicon alloys is positive, with prices oscillating strongly [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Glass and soda ash futures prices rose significantly yesterday. In the spot market, downstream procurement of glass was cautious, while soda ash trading fluctuated with the futures market [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Glass supply is stable, but inventory remains high. In the long - term, supply and demand are relatively loose. Soda ash production is stable, but with the expected reduction in photovoltaic glass production, demand is likely to weaken, and inventory pressure is high throughout the year [1] - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate, while soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly [2] Silicon Alloys (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) - **Market Analysis**: Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon futures prices were strong yesterday. In the spot market, suppliers of silicomanganese were firm on prices, and the ferrosilicon market sentiment was positive [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Silicomanganese production is stable, and demand is resilient, but high inventory suppresses prices. Ferrosilicon production has increased, demand has slightly decreased, and inventory is at a medium - high level. The short - term coal supply disruption has increased its valuation [3] - **Strategy**: Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate strongly [4]

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View In the short term, rubber prices continue to rebound due to macro - sentiment and rainfall in the producing areas. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being and pay attention to the improvement of raw material supply after the weather in the main producing areas gets better [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 22, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 0.67% from the previous day. The basis of whole - latex rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) was - 110, down 144.44%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The price of cup rubber in the international market was 49.30 Thai baht/kg, up 1.44%. The price of raw materials in Hainan also increased to varying degrees [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 795 yuan/ton, down 3.92%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 125 yuan/ton, down 38.89%; the 5 - 9 spread was 920 yuan/ton, up 7.60% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's rubber production was 272,200 tons, up 157.52% from the previous month; Indonesia's production was 200,300 tons, up 3.19%; India's production was 47,700 tons, up 5.07%; China's production was 97,000 tons, up 38,900 tons from the previous month. The weekly starting rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in May was 102.749 million pieces, up 0.74%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 60.31 million pieces, down 2.44%. The total import volume of natural rubber was 463,400 tons, up 2.21% [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory was 636,383 tons, up 0.63%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 36,691 tons, down 0.82%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed to varying degrees [2]. Group 2: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View On July 22, 2025, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon opened high and closed higher, with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit. Driven by the rise in coal prices and the smooth transmission of price increases in the silicon - based photovoltaic industry chain, there may still be room for price increases in the future. However, as the delivery month approaches, investors need to pay attention to position control and risk management [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 46,000 yuan/ton and 43,000 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of N - type material (average price) was - 3,105 yuan/ton, down 1013.24%. The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were stable, while the average price of Topcon components (distributed) and N - type 210mm components (for centralized projects) increased slightly [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The price of the PS2506 contract was 49,105 yuan/ton, up 7.54%. The spreads between different contracts also changed to varying degrees, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increasing by 15.56% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly, the silicon wafer production was 11.10 GM, down 3.48%; the polysilicon production was 23,000 tons, up 0.88%. Monthly, the polysilicon production was 101,000 tons, up 5.10%; the import volume of polysilicon was 11,000 tons, up 16.59%; the export volume was 22,000 tons, up 5.96%. The silicon wafer production was 58.84 GM, up 1.34%; the import volume was 6,000 tons, down 15.41%; the export volume was 61,000 tons, up 11.37% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, down 9.78%; the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02 CM, down 11.64%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2,780 hands [4]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View On July 22, 2025, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon opened high and closed higher, with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit. Driven by coal price increases and the smooth transmission of price increases in the silicon - based photovoltaic industry chain, the price of industrial silicon may continue to rise. However, attention should be paid to the inventory pressure caused by the decline in silicone demand. For the 09 contract with a large open interest, it is recommended to control positions and manage risks [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 22, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 2.11%. The basis of different grades of industrial silicon changed significantly, such as the basis of SI4210 industrial silicon (benchmark) being - 505 yuan/ton, down 62.90% [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2508 - 2509 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, down 25.00%; the 2509 - 2510 spread was 85 yuan/ton, up 21.43%; the 2510 - 2511 spread was 60 yuan/ton, down 25.00%; the 2511 - 2512 spread was - 320 yuan/ton, down 52.38%; the 2512 - 2601 spread was 85 yuan/ton, up 70.00% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly, the national industrial silicon production was 300,800 tons, down 12.10%; Xinjiang's production was 167,500 tons, down 20.55%; Yunnan's production was 13,500 tons, up 9.35%; Sichuan's production was 11,300 tons, up 145.65%. The national industrial silicon starting rate was 51.23%, down 11.37%. The production of silicone DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy increased, and the industrial silicon export volume was 60,500 tons, up 1.64% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory was 123,600 tons, down 0.24%; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory was 27,300 tons, up 0.37%; the Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory was 23,000 tons, down 1.29%. The social inventory was 547,000 tons, down 0.73%; the warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,300 tons, down 0.18%; the non - warehouse - receipt inventory was 296,700 tons, down 1.19% [5]. Group 4: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View On July 22, the log futures first rose and then fell. In the short term, due to the high - temperature season being the off - season for log demand and the decline in spot prices, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. One can consider buying on dips. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and policy expectations [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: On July 22, the price of log 2507 was 825 yuan/m³, up 0.61%; the price of log 2509 was 838 yuan/m³, unchanged; the price of log 2511 was 842 yuan/m³, down 0.30%; the price of log 2601 was 853 yuan/m³, down 0.93%. The 9 - 11 spread was - 4 yuan/m³, up 2.5; the 9 - 1 spread was - 15 yuan/m³, up 8. The basis of the 09 contract was - 98 yuan/m³, unchanged. The spot prices of logs in major ports remained stable [6]. - **Supply**: In June, the port shipping volume was 1.76 million m³, up 2.12%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 53, down 8.62% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 3.29 million m³, up 2.17% from July 11. The inventory in Shandong increased by 2.01%, while the inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 0.67% [6]. - **Demand**: As of July 18, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 62,400 m³, up 6.12% from July 11. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 5%, while that in Jiangsu increased by 25% [6]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The market sentiment was boosted by coal - related information, and the futures prices of glass and soda ash hit the daily limit. For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is still in excess, and there is pressure on the demand side in the second half of the year. For glass, although the spot market has improved, it is currently in the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. In the short term, the market fluctuates greatly due to policy and news, and risk avoidance should be noted [7]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - Related Price and Spread**: On July 22, the price of glass in North China was 1,200 yuan/ton, up 1.69%; in East China, it was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1,140 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; in South China, it was 1,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of glass 2505 was 1,317 yuan/ton, up 6.21%; the price of glass 2509 was 1,173 yuan/ton, up 8.51%. The 05 basis was - 117 yuan/ton, down 95.00% [7]. - **Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread**: The price of soda ash in North China was 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China, it was 1,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 1,020 yuan/ton, up 4.08%. The price of soda ash 2505 was 1,390 yuan/ton, up 6.43%; the price of soda ash 2509 was 1,295 yuan/ton, up 6.05%. The 05 basis was - 40 yuan/ton, down 190.91% [7]. - **Supply**: The soda ash starting rate was 84.10%, up 3.42%; the weekly soda ash production was 733,200 tons, up 3.41%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 157,800 tons, down 0.38%; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 91,840 tons, down 2.70% [7]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory was 64.939 million heavy boxes, down 3.22%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory was 1.9056 million tons, up 2.26%; the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory was 246,600 tons, up 3.61%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory was 23.4, up 11.34% [7]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 18.73%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points; the growth rate of construction area was - 33.33%, a decrease of 7.56 percentage points; the growth rate of completion area was - 11.68%, an increase of 15.67 percentage points; the growth rate of sales area was - 1.55%, an increase of 12.13 percentage points [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction materials industry [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of anti-involution policies in the construction materials sector, highlighting three main paths: limiting capital expenditure, clearing existing capacity, and constraining current output [23][24]. - The report identifies that the anti-involution policies aim to alleviate deflation and stabilize employment, addressing the long-standing issue of overcapacity in various industries [19][23]. Summary by Sections Anti-Involution Paths - The report outlines three paths for anti-involution in the construction materials industry: 1. Limiting capital expenditure, which benefits demand-driven sectors like photovoltaic glass and carbon fiber [23]. 2. Clearing existing capacity, particularly in sectors like cement and glass where demand has peaked [23]. 3. Constraining current output, which may lead to short-term profit recovery but complicates long-term capacity reduction [23][24]. Cement Industry - The cement industry is currently facing overcapacity issues, with an estimated 40% excess capacity and a utilization rate projected at 60% for 2024 [70]. - The report forecasts a continued decline in cement demand over the next three years, with a projected decrease of 5% in 2025 [73]. Glass Industry - The float glass sector is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices and profits at historical lows. The average price for float glass is around 70 yuan per heavy box, indicating a return to low profitability [28][49]. - The report notes that the industry is currently operating at a capacity utilization rate of approximately 74.7% [31]. Photovoltaic Glass - The photovoltaic glass sector is also in a challenging position, with prices at historical lows and the entire industry facing losses. The average price for 3.2mm photovoltaic glass is about 18.5 yuan per square meter [49]. - The report highlights the need for controlling new capacity and suggests that the industry may benefit from policies aimed at reducing overcapacity [55]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on demand-driven sectors like photovoltaic glass and fiberglass, which are expected to benefit from anti-involution policies [23]. - It also recommends monitoring industries with strong self-discipline foundations, such as cement, which may see more stable profits [23].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Short - term rubber prices are rebounding due to macro - sentiment and rainfall in production areas. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the improvement of raw material supply after the weather in the main production areas gets better [2] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 22, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber in Shanghai was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.67% from July 21. The basis of whole milk switched to the 2509 contract was - 110, down 65 or - 144.44%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.69%. The non - standard price difference was - 410, down 65 or - 18.84%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market was 49.30 Thai baht/kg, up 0.70 Thai baht or 1.44%. The FOB intermediate price of glue in the international market remained unchanged at 54.50 Thai baht/kg [2] - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's rubber production was 272,200 tons, up 166,500 tons or 157.52% from the previous period; Indonesia's production was 200,300 tons, up 6,200 tons or 3.19%; India's production was 47,700 tons, up 2,300 tons or 5.07%; China's production was 97,000 tons, up 38,900 tons. The weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires was 75.99%, up 3.07 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of all - steel tires was 65.10%, up 0.54 percentage points. The domestic tire production in May was 102.749 million pieces, up 0.74%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in May was 60.31 million pieces, down 2.44%. The total import volume of natural rubber in May was 463,400 tons, up 2.21% [2] - **Inventory Changes**: On July 22, the bonded area inventory was 636,383 tons, up 0.63% from the previous value. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 36,691 tons, down 0.82% [2] Group 2: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View On July 22, 2025, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon opened high and closed high, with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit. Driven by coal price increases and the smooth transmission of price increases in the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry chain, there may still be room for growth in the future. Attention should be paid to the opening of arbitrage space after the price rises and the increase in warehouse receipts and arbitrage positions. It is necessary to control positions and manage risks [3][4][5] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 22, the average price of N - type re - feeding materials remained at 46,000 yuan/ton; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained at 43,000 yuan/ton; the basis of N - type materials (average price) was - 3,105 yuan/ton, down 3,445 yuan or - 1013.24% [4] - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: On July 22, the price of the PS2506 contract was 49,105 yuan/ton, up 3,445 yuan or 7.54% from July 21. The spread between PS2506 - PS2507 was 260 yuan/ton, up 15.56%; the spread between PS2507 - PS2508 was 235 yuan/ton, up 62.07% [4] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly, the silicon wafer production was 11.10 GM, down 0.40 GM or - 3.48%; the polysilicon production was 23,000 tons, up 0.88%. Monthly, the polysilicon production was 101,000 tons, up 5.10%; the polysilicon import volume was 11,000 tons, up 16.59%; the polysilicon export volume was 22,000 tons, up 5.96% [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, down 9.78%; the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02 CM, down 11.64%; the polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2,780 lots [4] Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View On July 22, 2025, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon opened high and closed high, with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit. Driven by coal price increases and the smooth transmission of price increases in the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry chain, the price may continue to rise. Attention should be paid to whether the spot price will continue to increase. There is a risk of inventory accumulation due to the decline in silicone demand, and it is recommended to control positions and manage risks [5] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On July 22, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 2.11%. The basis of oxygen - passing SI5530 was - 195, down 81.25%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 9,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 2.05%. The basis of SI4210 was - 505, down 195 or - 62.90% [5] - **Inter - month Spread**: On July 22, the spread between 2508 - 2509 was - 25 yuan/ton, down 25.00%; the spread between 2509 - 2510 was 85 yuan/ton, up 21.43% [5] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, the national industrial silicon production was 300,800 tons, down 41,400 tons or - 12.10%. Xinjiang's industrial silicon production was 167,500 tons, down 43,300 tons or - 20.55%. Yunnan's industrial silicon production was 13,500 tons, up 9.35%. Sichuan's industrial silicon production was 11,300 tons, up 145.65% [5] - **Inventory Changes**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory (weekly) was 123,600 tons, down 0.24%. The Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory (weekly) was 27,300 tons, up 0.37%. The Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory (weekly) was 23,000 tons, down 1.29%. The social inventory (weekly) was 547,000 tons, down 0.73%. The warehouse receipt inventory (daily) was 250,300 tons, down 0.18%. The non - warehouse receipt inventory (daily) was 296,700 tons, down 1.19% [5] Group 4: Log Futures Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Recently, the sentiment of the log futures market has improved. However, currently, due to the high - temperature season, the demand for logs is in the off - season, and the spot price has declined. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up in the short term and consider buying on dips during callbacks. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and policy expectations [6] Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 22, the price of log 2507 was 825 yuan/m³, up 5 yuan or 0.61%. The price of log 2509 remained at 838 yuan/m³. The price of log 2511 was 842 yuan/m³, down 2.5 yuan or - 0.30%. The price of log 2601 was 853 yuan/m³, down 8 yuan or - 0.93% [6] - **Supply (Monthly)**: In June, the port shipping volume was 1.76 million m³, up 2.12%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 53, down 8.62% [6] - **Inventory**: As of July 18, the national coniferous log inventory was 3.29 million m³, up 70,000 m³ or 2.17% from July 11 [6] - **Demand**: As of July 18, the daily average log delivery volume was 62,400 m³, up 0.36 m³ or 6.12% from July 11 [6] Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market is greatly affected by policies and news in the short term, with significant price fluctuations. In the medium - term, the demand for soda ash has no obvious growth, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the production adjustment of upstream soda ash plants and risk avoidance [7] - **Glass**: The glass market is also affected by market sentiment. Currently, it is in the off - season, and the demand is under pressure. The industry needs to clear production capacity to reverse the situation. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate greatly, and risk avoidance is necessary [7] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, the north - China glass quotation was 1,200 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 1.69%. The east - China quotation remained at 1,250 yuan/ton. The central - China quotation was 1,140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.88%. The south - China quotation remained at 1,290 yuan/ton. The price of glass 2505 was 1,317 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan or 6.21%. The price of glass 2509 was 1,173 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan or 8.51% [7] - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The north - China soda ash quotation remained at 1,350 yuan/ton. The east - China quotation remained at 1,230 yuan/ton. The central - China quotation remained at 1,200 yuan/ton. The northwest quotation was 1,020 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 4.08%. The price of soda ash 2505 was 1,390 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan or 6.43%. The price of soda ash 2509 was 1,295 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan or 6.05% [7] - **Supply**: On July 18, the soda ash operating rate was 84.10%, up 3.42%. The weekly soda ash production was 733,200 tons, up 3.41%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 157,800 tons, down 0.38%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 91,840 tons, down 2.70% [7] - **Inventory**: As of July 18, the glass factory inventory was 64.939 million heavy boxes, down 3.22%. The soda ash factory inventory was 1.9056 million tons, up 2.26%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory was 246,600 tons, up 3.61% [7]

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Overseas, the US dollar index continues to decline, and global risk appetite has generally increased. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stock indices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; government bonds are at a high level and volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **General situation**: Overseas, the US dollar index and US bond yields are falling, and global risk appetite is rising. Domestically, economic growth is higher than expected in H1 but slows in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Assets**: Stock indices are volatile and slightly stronger, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Government bonds are at a high level and volatile, and cautious observation is advised. For commodities, black metals are expected to rebound from low levels, non - ferrous metals are expected to rebound, energy and chemicals are volatile, and precious metals are at a high level and volatile, with cautious long positions recommended for relevant sectors [2]. Stock Indices - **Market performance**: Driven by sectors such as hydropower, engineering machinery, and civil explosives and cement, the domestic stock market continues to rise [3]. - **Fundamentals and policy**: Economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but consumption and investment slow down in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term macro - upward drivers are strengthened. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Market trend**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline and other factors support the strength of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down. The volatility of precious metals is expected to increase, and they are short - term strong. Gold's medium - and long - term upward support pattern remains unchanged, and its strategic allocation value is prominent [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Policy expectations are strengthened, and steel prices continue to rebound. The real demand is weak in the short term, and the demand for plates is stronger than that for building materials. Speculative demand has increased. The output of five major steel products has decreased, and cost support is strong. Short - term, it is recommended to view it with a volatile and slightly stronger mindset [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rebounds. Under the policy expectation, the black metal sector rises, driving the iron ore price up. The steel demand is in the off - season, but steel mill profits are high. The iron ore supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The cost of silicon manganese production in southern factories is high, and the production profit is low. The cost of silicon iron has increased slightly, and the production rhythm is stable. Short - term, the prices may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract rises significantly. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, the demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the supply - demand pattern. Short - term, the price is supported [8]. - **Glass**: The glass main contract price hits the daily limit. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The price is supported by the "anti - involution" policy [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan boosts sentiment. The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time, and there is uncertainty. Short - term, the plan is positive for copper prices [10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, it is weak in the near term. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document boosts market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited, and the increase is expected to be limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has increased. The industry is in a loss state, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is better than expected, and the mine supply tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term upside is restricted [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract rises significantly. The production has increased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the re - pricing of the industry chain. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the polysilicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The industry is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the market should pay attention to the margin adjustment [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As the US trade negotiation deadline approaches, the oil price has fallen for three consecutive days. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and be in a weak and volatile state [15]. - **PX**: PX follows the upstream raw materials and is in a range - bound state. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [15]. - **PTA**: The spot is weak, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is driven by the "anti - involution" resonance but has limited upside. There is a risk of production cuts due to low processing fees [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported at a certain level. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is slightly lower, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern [16]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang has risen and then fallen slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The price is short - term strong under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, but the upside is limited [17][18]. - **PP**: The PP price is slightly adjusted. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the upside is limited [18]. - **PL**: The propylene futures are newly listed, and the price is affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is large, and the price increase driver is limited [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE is adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price may rebound in the short - term but has limited upside and is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term [19]. - **Urea**: The urea price has risen with the market sentiment. Fundamentally, the demand is weakening, and the supply is loose. The price is expected to rise in the short - term but be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to weather conditions. After a short - term heatwave, there are expected to be showers, which may limit crop stress [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal is expected to have a pattern of inventory accumulation and weak basis. The rapeseed meal consumption is far below expectations, and the inventory is slow to decline. The short - term market is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The rapeseed oil has high port inventory and slow circulation. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may widen [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory of palm oil has increased, and the futures price has risen. The short - term market is bullish, but the resistance to price increases has increased. The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the export improvement is less than expected [22].

在"反内卷"政策的刺激下，工业品期货全线大涨！ 7月22日，商品期货午后大爆发，焦煤、焦炭、多晶硅、工业硅、玻璃、纯碱等6个品种涨停，市场情绪高涨。 今日市场传出国家能源局开展煤炭核查的消息，对超能力生产的煤炭一律责令停产整改，被业内认为煤炭"反 内卷"开启，这引发午后黑色系的狂飙。 在钢铁、光伏以及煤炭行业相继传出减产消息后，这一轮商品行情的持续性备受市场关注。 大宗商品再现暴涨 7月22日，商品期货早盘强势震荡，尤其是光伏产业链品种，多晶硅、工业硅等走出单边上涨的行情。午后， 工业品期货全线爆发，尤其是黑色系，焦煤、焦炭直线拉升封死涨停。截至收盘，工业硅、多晶硅、焦煤、焦 炭、玻璃等6个主力合约涨停。 其中，焦煤已经迈过1000元/吨的大关，收盘涨幅为7.98%，报1048.5元/吨，持仓量大减6.28万手，减仓涨停意 味着空头出现了大面积平仓；焦炭收盘报1697.5元/吨，涨幅也为7.98%，持仓量减少3388手；此外，黑色系品 种中，螺纹钢大涨3.12%，铁矿石涨2.49%，热卷涨2.84%。 光伏产业链则延续强势走势，从多晶硅蔓延至工业硅，两大品种今日双双涨停。截至收盘，多晶硅主力合约涨 幅为8.9 ...

Group 1 - Guangdong courts have concluded over 17,000 securities false statement liability disputes from 2022 to 2024, with a 34.7% year-on-year decrease in new first-instance cases in 2024 [1] - The total number of securities false statement liability disputes adjudicated is 17,515, with 5,357 cases withdrawn, resulting in a withdrawal rate exceeding 30% [1] - This judicial approach aims to deter financial fraud and information disclosure violations, enhancing investor confidence and supporting Guangdong's goal of becoming a financial powerhouse [1] Group 2 - Shenzhen's import and export volume reached 2.17 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for 9.9% of the national total, with exports at 1.31 trillion yuan and imports at 858.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [2] - Shenzhen's trade data underscores its strategic value as a model for open economies, contributing to high-quality foreign trade development in the Greater Bay Area and nationwide [2] Group 3 - Four companies from Huizhou made it to the list of China's top 500 listed companies by market capitalization, with a total market value of 446.66 billion yuan as of June 30 [3] - The companies include Shenghong Technology, Yiwei Lithium Energy, TCL Technology, and Desay SV, highlighting Huizhou's significant industrial cluster effect [3] Group 4 - Guangdong financial institutions have issued 39 transformation loans totaling 3.36 billion yuan, covering industries such as cement, glass, ceramics, steel, aluminum, chemicals, and water transportation [4] - This initiative marks a shift towards leveraging financial tools for the green transformation of traditional industries, indicating Guangdong's exploration of a low-carbon economic upgrade path [4] Group 5 - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11,099.83 points, up 0.84% [5] Group 6 - The top gainers in the Shenzhen market include Zhuhai Design at 20.86 yuan with a 20.02% increase, Ankao Intelligent Electric at 44.08 yuan with a 20.01% increase, and Weiman Sealing at 35.51 yuan with a 20.01% increase [6] - The top decliners include Jinshi Technology at 16.65 yuan with a 10.00% decrease, Lianfa Co. at 10.12 yuan with a 9.64% decrease, and another company at 45.60 yuan with an 8.80% decrease [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the continuous upgrade of special fabrics and the focus on the promotion of anti-involution policies in the construction materials sector [6] - The glass fiber industry is expected to perform well, with a focus on construction materials and anti-involution measures [2] - The report anticipates that the anti-involution policies will lead to structural adjustments and the elimination of backward production capacity in key industries, including construction materials [6][7] Summary by Sections Basic Situation - Cement prices continue to decline, with a national average shipment rate of approximately 45.5%, a 2.4 percentage point increase month-on-month but a 0.5 percentage point decrease year-on-year [8] - The average price of cement nationwide is 348.87 yuan/ton, down 3.87 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 46.29 yuan/ton year-on-year [24] - Glass prices are showing slight increases, with a national average price of 69.59 yuan per weight box, up 0.14 yuan per weight box month-on-month but down 11.89 yuan year-on-year [37] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on special fabrics and the African supply chain, with key players such as China National Materials Technology benefiting from domestic substitution in special glass fiber fabrics [10] - It also suggests paying attention to companies like Huaxin Cement and Western Cement, which are expected to benefit from the structural optimization of demand in the construction materials sector [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of existing leading companies in the construction materials sector as a main line for investment throughout the year [2][10]