Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback in July, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 1.18% at 3573.21 points, the Shenzhen Component down 1.73% at 11009.77 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.66% at 2328.31 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.936 trillion yuan, an increase of 91.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Over 4200 stocks in the market declined, indicating a broad-based downturn, while sectors related to computing power, such as liquid cooling servers and optical modules, saw gains [1] AI and Communication Sector Performance - The AI hardware sector, represented by optical modules, showed resilience with the Guotai AI ETF rising by 0.95% and a 60-day increase of 32.57%. The Communication ETF also rose by 0.57% with a 60-day increase of 45.11% [2][3] - Positive earnings reports from overseas companies, including Meta and Microsoft, contributed to the upward momentum in the optical module and AI hardware sectors. Meta reported Q2 revenue of $47.516 billion, a 22% year-over-year increase, while Microsoft reported Q4 revenue of $76.4 billion, an 18% increase [3][4] Capital Expenditure Insights - Meta raised its annual capital expenditure forecast from $64 billion to a range of $66 billion to $72 billion, while Microsoft anticipates its capital expenditure for Q1 FY2026 to exceed $30 billion due to strong demand for cloud and AI products [4] - The communication industry in China is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by advancements in 5G, IoT, and AI technologies, with significant infrastructure investments anticipated [4] Economic Policy and Market Sentiment - Recent meetings expressed optimism about the economic outlook, suggesting that a growth rate of 4.7% in the second half of the year would suffice to meet annual targets. The focus is on maintaining existing policies rather than introducing new ones [6][8] - The emphasis on service consumption and private investment growth indicates a strategic shift towards enhancing domestic demand and economic resilience [8][9] Sector-Specific Trends - The steel and non-ferrous metals sectors experienced significant declines, attributed to the government's cautious approach towards "anti-involution" policies and the removal of specific low-price strategies [6][8] - The Guotai AI ETF tracks the AI index, which includes companies involved in machine learning and smart chips, highlighting the sector's growth potential. The top three holdings are Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, and Tianfu Communication [5]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.18% to close at 3573.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.73% to 11009.77 points, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.66% to 2328.31 points [2][3][4] - This marks the largest single-day decline since April 7, with a total trading volume of 19.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 91.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day [4][12] Index Performance - The CSI 300 Index, which represents major stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, saw a larger drop of 1.82%, indicating significant contributions from heavyweight stocks to the overall market decline [5] - Out of 4274 stocks in the two markets, only 1060 stocks rose, highlighting a broad-based sell-off [5] Sector Analysis - Only six sectors showed positive performance, primarily driven by pharmaceutical stocks due to ongoing speculation in innovative drugs, and sectors related to information technology [6] - The sectors with the largest declines included coal and non-ferrous metals, with steel and photovoltaic equipment also experiencing drops of over 2.63% [6] Individual Stock Impact - Major negative contributors to the Shanghai Composite Index included China Life, Ping An Insurance, Kweichow Moutai, Yangtze Power, and China Mobile [7] - For the Shenzhen Component Index, CATL, BYD, Midea Group, Wuliangye, and Dongfang Caifu had the most significant negative impacts, with CATL experiencing a 4.45% drop following disappointing revenue expectations [7][8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market's sudden downturn occurred shortly after a political bureau meeting emphasized stabilizing the capital market, leading to concerns about irrational panic selling [9][10] - Despite the overall market decline, major banks showed resilience, with Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Bank of China all posting slight gains [11] - The recent speculative trading behavior, particularly in stocks like Weiwei New Materials, which surged 1200% in a month, has raised concerns about regulatory scrutiny and potential repercussions for the broader market [11][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - A-share major indices collectively declined significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3,600 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased notably. Most industry sectors dropped, with the steel, non-ferrous metals, and real estate sectors weakening substantially. [3] - In July, China's official manufacturing PMI declined from the previous month and has been in the contraction range for four consecutive months. Although the non-manufacturing PMI and composite PMI remained above the boom-bust line, they also decreased from the previous values. The decline in manufacturing sentiment negatively affected market sentiment. [3] - China and the US reached a 90-day tariff truce extension as scheduled. The Politburo meeting on July 30 did not announce more incremental policies, which was weaker than market expectations. [3] - The third trade negotiation provided more flexibility for the market, but the decline of China's three major PMI indices in July indicated that economic recovery still faced challenges. After the Politburo meeting, without unexpected policies, market bulls might take profit, and stock index futures were expected to enter a wide-range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub-main contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2509) dropped to 4,057.0, down 73.2; the IH main contract (2509) fell to 2,777.0, down 40.6; the IC main contract (2509) decreased to 6,124.0, down 85.8; the IM main contract (2509) dropped to 6,538.0, down 58.2. [2] - There were changes in the spreads between different contracts. For instance, the IF - IH current month contract spread decreased to 1,293.0, down 32.6; the IC - IF current month contract spread dropped to 2,117.0, down 7.2. [2] Futures Position Holdings - The net positions of the top 20 in IF increased by 401.0 to -24,341.00, while those in IH decreased by 729.0 to -15,476.00, IC decreased by 1,765.0 to -12,414.00, and IM decreased by 56.0 to -37,444.00. [2] Spot Prices and Basis - The spot prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. The basis of the IF main contract decreased to -18.6, down 3.8; the basis of the IH main contract increased to 1.0, up 0.4; the basis of the IC main contract decreased to -102.3, down 3.1; the basis of the IM main contract decreased to -123.2, down 8.9. [2] Market Sentiment - A-share trading volume reached 19,618.49 billion yuan, up 908.73 billion yuan. Margin trading balance increased by 21.07 billion yuan to 19,847.48 billion yuan. Northbound trading volume increased by 57.13 billion yuan to 2,391.44 billion yuan. [2] - The proportion of rising stocks decreased to 19.58%, down 12.04 percentage points. The Shibor increased to 1.392%, up 0.075 percentage points. [2] Industry News - The Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, emphasizing the need to continue and strengthen macro - policies, release domestic demand potential, expand high - level opening - up, and resolve local government debt risks. [2] - China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, and agreed to extend the 24% reciprocal tariff suspension and China's counter - measures for 90 days. [2] - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, both remaining above the critical point. [2]

（原标题：收评：沪指放量跌逾1%，资源股集体下挫，AI产业链股逆市活跃） 31日，沪指盘中震荡下探，尾盘加速跳水；深证成指、创业板指跌近2%，场内近4300股飘绿，全A成 交额明显放大。 截至收盘，沪指跌1.18%报3573.21点，深证成指跌1.73%报11009.77点，创业板指跌1.66%报2328.31点， 上证50指数跌1.54%，沪深北三市合计成交19621亿元。 盘面上看，煤炭、钢铁、化纤、石油、有色、地产、券商、保险、电力、酿酒等板块均走低，AI产业 链股逆市活跃，液冷服务器、算力概念等走强；辅助生殖概念走高，人脑工程、创新药概念等活跃。 东兴证券指出，当前A股处于中长期慢牛阶段，指数波动性下降，热点轮动合理。建议投资者维持较高 仓位，以持有策略为主，关注景气度较高的行业。重点推荐大科技、高股息和消费板块，同时可关注创 新药、军工及周期品等具备成长性的细分领域。 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a mixed performance with significant volatility, as the three major indices all fell by over 1% on July 31, 2023. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3573.21 points, down 1.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 11009.77 points, down 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index at 2328.31 points, down 1.66% [2]. Sector Performance - The innovative drug concept saw a rebound, with stocks like Nanjing New Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit [1]. - AI applications remained active throughout the day, with stocks such as Yidian Tianxia also reaching the daily limit [1]. - AI hardware stocks showed mixed results, but the liquid cooling server concept was strong, with companies like Invec hitting the daily limit [1]. - Conversely, cyclical sectors such as steel and non-ferrous metals collectively weakened, with Anyang Steel dropping over 7% [1]. - The financial sector was sluggish, with Zhongyin Securities falling over 5% [1]. Trading Volume and Stock Movement - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.94 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 917.56 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Out of the total stocks, 1061 rose while 4287 fell, with 49 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 6 hitting the limit down [2]. Sector Highlights - The sectors that performed well included liquid cooling servers, assisted reproduction, Google, biopharmaceuticals, chemical pharmaceuticals, and computers [1]. - Sectors that faced declines included aquaculture, PTA, iron ore, energy metals, steel, and minor metals [1].

人民财讯7月31日电，午后指数走弱，沪指、深证成指均跌逾1%，创业板指跌0.8%。煤炭、钢铁、有色 等板块跌幅居前。 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodities futures mostly closed higher, with the crude oil sector generally rising [1]. - Overseas commodity demand is experiencing a short - term weak recovery, housing prices are weakly stable, and job vacancies are lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and earnings reports. The US tariff policies may be implemented, with uncertainties remaining [7]. - The tone of the domestic policy meeting is in line with expectations, focusing on improving the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. Policies will be more flexible and forward - looking. There are administrative production - cut expectations in some industries, and domestic demand is stable with resilient exports [7]. - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Pay attention to the progress of China - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. Overseas, be aware of tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. A weak US dollar pattern persists in the long - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US May FHFA housing price index monthly rate was - 0.2%. US consumers' willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating at a low level. US June JOLTs job vacancies were 7.437 million, lower than expected. US tariff policies may be implemented before August 1st and 12th [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Politburo meeting's policy tone is in line with expectations, emphasizing using existing policies effectively. There are administrative production - cut expectations in some industries. Domestic demand is stable, and exports are resilient [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities. Overseas, pay attention to multiple risks. Maintain strategic allocations to resources like gold and copper [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the strengthening of the technology - growth sector. Index options may experience volatile movements. Treasury bond futures will be affected by the Politburo meeting and China - US economic and trade talks [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase, affected by Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies [8]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment of the shipping industry has declined. The focus is on the sustainability of the increase in the June loading rate of container shipping to Europe [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: The trend of black building materials has reversed. Most varieties are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as production, cost, and policy [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Non - ferrous metals are expected to receive support from the upcoming stable - growth plan. Most non - ferrous metal prices are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil supply is increasing. Most chemical products are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. Some products like asphalt and high/low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to decline [10]. - **Agriculture**: Cotton prices have declined, and the month - spread has decreased. Most agricultural products are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [10].

Group 1 - The A-share market opened with mixed performance on July 31, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.05%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.65% [1] - Sectors that performed well included components, tourism, and CPO concepts, while sectors that saw declines included shipbuilding, non-ferrous metals, and insurance [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the worst phase of economic circulation is likely passing, with a positive evaluation of the first half of the year and a focus on the preparation for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2][9] - Key indicators such as the growth rate of corporate deposits and the difference in year-on-year growth rates of household deposits are showing signs of recovery, indicating a shift from excessive saving to normal spending [2][9] - The political bureau's recent meetings reflect a shift from emphasizing external risks to focusing on domestic economic preparations and the effectiveness of existing policies [2][8] Group 2 - The report highlights that the reliance on extraordinary policies is diminishing, with a focus on maximizing the effects of existing policies rather than introducing new ones [8][9] - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was 5.3%, easing the difficulty of achieving the annual target of around 5% [9] - The upcoming months are critical for validating economic trends, particularly in the absence of extraordinary policies [9][10] Group 3 - The emphasis has shifted from total monetary easing to structural monetary policy, with a focus on supporting specific sectors such as technology innovation and consumption [12][14] - The current household deposits amount to 160 trillion, with a significant portion being excess savings, which influences monetary policy decisions [14] Group 4 - The political bureau's stance on capital markets has evolved from merely stabilizing to actively enhancing attractiveness and momentum [18][20] - The report notes a significant divergence in the Sharpe ratio between stocks and bonds, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation favoring equities [20] Group 5 - The focus has shifted towards optimizing competitive order rather than administrative capacity reduction, with measures to combat unfair competition being emphasized [22][23] - The report outlines a three-phase approach to countering "involution," starting with controlling new projects and potentially leading to industry consolidation [24][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the economic growth, inflation, and related market trends in July 2025, including production, demand, CPI, and PPI indicators, and points out the price changes and influencing factors of various products and industries [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Economic Growth: Cement Prices Approach Previous Lows 3.1.1 Production: Power Plant Daily Consumption Fluctuates at a High Level - Power plant daily consumption fluctuates at a high level. On July 29, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 882,100 tons, a 0.01% decrease from July 22. On July 22, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.18 million tons, a 4.0% decrease from July 15 [4][11]. - The blast furnace operating rate remains at a high level. On July 25, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.5%, unchanged from July 18; the capacity utilization rate was 90.8%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 18. On July 25, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills in Tangshan was 92.0%, unchanged from July 18 [4][14]. - The tire operating rate shows weak and stable operation. On July 24, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 65.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 17; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 75.9%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 17. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions declined moderately [4][16]. 3.1.2 Demand: Cement Prices Approach Previous Lows - The new - home sales in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month. From July 1 - 29, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 201,000 square meters, a 31.4% decrease compared to the same period in June, an 18.8% decrease compared to the same period in July last year, and a 34.7% decrease compared to the same period in July 2023 [4][22]. - The retail sales of the auto market are stable and relatively strong. In July, retail sales increased by 9% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 17% year - on - year [4][23]. - Steel prices maintain resilience. On July 29, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 2.1%, 0.8%, 0.9%, and 0.9% respectively compared to July 22 [4][30]. - Cement prices approach previous lows. On July 29, the national cement price index decreased by 1.6% compared to July 22, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreasing by 2.3% and 2.7% respectively [4][31]. - Glass prices corrected. On July 29, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,182 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease from July 22 [4][37]. - The container shipping freight index has declined for seven consecutive weeks. On July 25, the CCFI index decreased by 3.2% compared to July 18, and the SCFI index decreased by 3.3% [4][40]. 3.2 Inflation: Pig Prices Weaken 3.2.1 CPI: Pig Prices Weaken - Pig prices weaken. On July 29, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.5 yuan/kg, a 1.2% decrease from July 22 [4][46]. - The agricultural product price index fluctuates weakly. On July 29, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.04% compared to July 22. By variety, eggs (+5.1%) > fruits (+1.7%) > mutton (+0.9%) > vegetables (+0.7%) > chicken (+0.4%) > beef (-0.02%) > pork (-1.2%) [4][50]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Rise - Oil prices rise. On July 29, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 71.6 and 69.2 dollars/barrel respectively, increasing by 2.2% and 6.0% compared to July 22 [4][53]. - Copper and aluminum prices decline. On July 29, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 0.9% and 1.2% respectively compared to July 22 [4][58]. - The month - on - month increase of the domestic commodity index widens. On July 29, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 0.8% compared to July 22, and the CRB index decreased by 0.3% [4][58]. - Most industrial product prices rise. Since July, most industrial product prices have increased, with wire rod, cement, and steam coal prices decreasing month - on - month, while other industrial product prices increasing month - on - month, with coking coal and coke having the largest increases. The year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices has narrowed [62].