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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250721
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 02:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - For soybean meal, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all positive. In the short - term, it's expected to be strong, in the medium - term, it's also strong, and the reference view is oscillating strongly. The core logic is that due to trade concerns, the forward purchase rhythm is slow, the supply pressure is not transmitted to the far - month, and the forward supply is tight. With high refinery operating rates, the refinery's soybean meal inventory has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the negative basis persists. Short - term soybean meal futures prices are dominated by supply expectations, with futures stronger than spot and stronger than US soybeans, and the rebound continues [5]. - For palm oil, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly. The core logic is that the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy boosts future biodiesel demand, which supports palm oil futures prices. Domestic palm oil follows the international market. With the return of funds due to energy demand, the price gets support. However, as international oil prices fall again, the palm oil price oscillates weakly in the short - term [8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by trade concerns, the forward purchase rhythm is slow, so the supply pressure is not transmitted to the far - month, and the forward supply is tight. With high refinery operating rates, the refinery's soybean meal inventory has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the negative basis persists. Short - term soybean meal futures prices are dominated by supply expectations, with futures stronger than spot and stronger than US soybeans, and the rebound continues [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: The implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy boosts future biodiesel demand, which supports palm oil futures prices. Domestic palm oil follows the international market. With the return of funds due to energy demand, the price gets support. However, as international oil prices fall again, the palm oil price oscillates weakly in the short - term [8]. Other Considerations - For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, refinery operating rhythm, and stocking demand [7]. - For soybean oil 2509, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and refinery inventory [7]. - For palm 2509, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [7].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250718
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 01:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the report is that several key agricultural commodities in the futures market, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, are showing a tendency of being "oscillating strongly" in the short - term or intraday, with different fundamental driving factors for each [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and mid - term views are "strong", and the intraday view is "oscillating strongly". The reference view is also "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Positive expectations for US soybean exports boost the rebound of US soybean futures prices, and strong US soybean crushing demand is an important support. The "ambiguous deadline" of the China - US trade agreement extends the South American supply window, and the traditional US soybean export peak season faces pressure from Brazilian soybean discounts. Domestic supply pressure is concentrated in the near - term, and forward purchases are low. In the short - term, supply expectations dominate the market again, with futures stronger than spot, and the internal - strong - external - weak pattern continues, keeping the futures price in an oscillating and strong pattern [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: The intraday view is "oscillating strongly", the mid - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating strongly" [7]. - **Core Logic**: The increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the increase in export taxes may lead to a decline in palm oil exports, weakening the fundamental support of Malaysian palm oil. However, positive expectations for Indonesian biodiesel demand support palm oil prices. Driven by the energy attribute of palm oil, a small amount of capital flowing back boosts the futures price performance, making palm oil lead the rebound in the oil and fat sector again. In the short - term, the palm oil futures price should be treated with a rebound mindset [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and mid - term views are "oscillating", the intraday view is "oscillating strongly", and the reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].
宝城期货橡胶早报-20250715
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 02:26
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile; Overall reference view: strongly running [1][5] - **Core Logic**: A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. The supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and large month - on - month output pressure. Downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a terminal demand off - season. Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in June, the 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed a strongly volatile trend in the overnight session on Monday, with the price slightly rising 0.87% to 14,430 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Tuesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile; Overall reference view: strongly running [1][7] - **Core Logic**: A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. The operating loads of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have increased slightly, driving up production and capacity utilization. Downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a terminal demand off - season. Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in June, the 2509 contract of synthetic rubber futures showed a strongly volatile trend in the overnight session on Monday, with the price slightly rising 0.22% to 11,570 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Tuesday [7]
达利凯普: 套期保值业务管理制度
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-10 12:10
Core Viewpoint - The company has established a comprehensive set of guidelines for its hedging activities to mitigate market price volatility risks, ensuring that these activities align with its operational needs and comply with relevant regulations [1][2]. Group 1: Hedging Business Overview - The hedging business includes financial derivatives and commodity futures hedging to mitigate risks associated with exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices [1][2]. - The company must conduct hedging activities in a legal, prudent, safe, and effective manner, ensuring that these activities do not interfere with normal operations or involve speculative trading [2]. Group 2: Organizational Structure - The company's board of directors and shareholders' meeting serve as the decision-making bodies for hedging activities [3]. - A dedicated working group is established to manage hedging activities, comprising key executives such as the chairman, general manager, and financial officers [3][4]. Group 3: Approval Authority - The company must prepare a feasibility analysis report for hedging activities, which requires approval from the board of directors [5]. - Certain transactions, particularly those involving significant financial commitments, must also be submitted for shareholders' approval [5]. Group 4: Risk Management - The company is required to conduct thorough assessments of financial institutions before engaging in hedging activities [27]. - Regular audits and checks are mandated to ensure compliance with risk management policies and to identify any operational risks [28][30]. Group 5: Emergency Procedures - In the event of significant market changes or natural disasters, the company must promptly report and take necessary actions to mitigate risks, including closing or locking positions [37][39]. - Contingency plans are in place for operational disruptions, ensuring that trading can continue through alternative means [40][41]. Group 6: Documentation and Record Keeping - All documentation related to hedging activities, including applications, approvals, and transaction records, must be archived for a minimum of ten years [41]. - The company is responsible for maintaining confidentiality regarding its hedging strategies and financial information [25].
宝城期货橡胶早报-20250710
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 01:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday night, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a volatile rebound, with the futures price rising 2.28% to 14325 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Thursday [5] - **Core Logic**: Recent high - level meetings may bring a new round of supply - side reform, boosting domestic commodity futures. However, the supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations, and downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a coming off - season for terminal demand [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday night, the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed a volatile rebound, with the futures price rising 1.78% to 11445 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Thursday [7] - **Core Logic**: High - level meetings may bring a new round of supply - side reform, boosting domestic commodity futures. The load of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China has increased slightly, driving up production and capacity utilization. But downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a coming off - season for terminal demand [7]
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250710
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 01:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term trends of various agricultural commodity futures are mainly in a state of oscillation, with different degrees of strength or weakness in the short - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic**: Good weather in US soybean - producing areas, rising trade concerns, a well - supplied domestic soybean market, 8 - week consecutive low - level increase in oil mill soybean meal inventory, high - level continuous soybean meal pick - up volume, and an un - reversed negative basis of soybean meal. The short - term soybean meal futures price is affected by import cost, supply pressure, and trade concerns and turns to oscillating [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: The recent oil market is affected by the volatility of international oil prices, and market funds' attention to palm oil has increased. The palm oil market focuses on whether the Malaysian palm oil inventory can decline as expected. The phased supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil has tightened, Indian demand for importing palm oil has increased, and with the attention of funds, palm oil performs relatively strongly in the oil sector [7]. 3.3. Other Related Information - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [6]. - **Factors Affecting Different Varieties**: For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand; for soybean oil 2509, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory; for palm 2509, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250709
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 01:24
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View - The short - term trend of soybean meal futures prices has turned to a volatile state under the influence of weakened support from US soybeans and domestic supply pressure [6]. - The short - term trend of palm oil futures prices is volatile and strong, and the sustainability needs to be monitored [9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trends**: Intraday view is volatile and weak, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile and weak [6]. - **Core Logic**: Good weather in US soybean production areas has strengthened the expectation of a bumper harvest, causing US soybean futures prices to run weakly. The domestic soybean market has abundant supply. Under the background of high operating rates of oil mills, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks at a low level, and the提货 volume remains high [6]. For Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trends**: Intraday view is volatile and strong, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile and strong [9]. - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market is concerned about whether this week's Malaysian palm report can fulfill the bullish expectation of inventory decline. The short - term supply and demand of Malaysian palm is tightening, and the international soybean - palm spread has turned in favor of palm oil exports. Driven by multiple positive expectations, market funds have actively entered the market, pushing palm oil futures prices to lead the rise in the oil and fat sector [9]. For Other Related Information - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [8]. - **Variety Strategy Factors**: For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operating rhythm, and stocking demand; for soybean oil 2509, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory; for palm 2509, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [8].
宝城期货原油早报-20250708
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 02:56
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation with a slight upward bias [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trend and Views - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of the crude oil 2509 contract are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a slight upward bias respectively, with an overall view of running strongly [1]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed up 2.03% at 507 yuan/barrel on the overnight session of Monday, and the 2508 contract is expected to maintain an oscillation with a slight upward bias on Tuesday [5]. Core Logic - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has re - emerged due to Israel's air strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, leading to a rebound in geopolitical premium and an increase in the confidence of oil market bulls after a previous significant decline [5]. - The demand factor of crude oil has come into play with the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. - Market sentiment has been repaired as Trump extended the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs, and the bullish atmosphere has supported the sharp rebound of domestic and international crude oil futures prices [5].
原油早报:原油早报:多空分歧出现,原油震荡偏弱-20250707
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 01:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2509 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. - Due to the Israeli air strikes on Lebanese Hezbollah, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has emerged again. After a sharp decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. With the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand factor for crude oil has come into play. Against the backdrop of the divergence between bulls and bears, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillatory and weak trend in the night session last Friday, with the futures price slightly down 0.70% to 497.6 yuan/barrel. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract may maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Monday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1]. - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the closing price of the day's daytime session to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and weak, an increase of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and strong, and an increase greater than 1% is a rise [3]. - The concepts of oscillatory and strong/weak only apply to the intraday view, not to the short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.2 Crude Oil (SC) Market Analysis - The intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is weak operation [5]. - The core logic is the combination of geopolitical risks, the rebound of bullish confidence, and the peak oil - using season, leading to the oscillatory and weak trend of the crude oil futures contract [5].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250707
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 01:11
Group 1 - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils dated July 7, 2025 [1] Group 2 - The short - term is defined as within a week, and the medium - term is from two weeks to one month, based on the previous day's night - session closing price [7] Group 3 - For the soybean meal (M) 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "bullish", the intraday view is "oscillating bullish", and the reference view is "oscillating bullish". The core logic involves import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operating rhythm, and stocking demand. With the release of imported soybean arrival pressure, domestic soybean supply is abundant. Oil mill soybean meal inventory has risen for 8 consecutive weeks. Downstream's expectation of future supply tightening supports procurement demand, and the short - term futures price may be oscillating bullish, affected by external markets and domestic supply [6][7] - For the soybean oil (Y) 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "bullish", the intraday view is "oscillating bullish", and the reference view is "oscillating bullish". The core logic includes US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. US soybean oil inventory decline and new tax bill boost demand, and the domestic market is in a balanced state between inventory pressure and cost support, with short - term prices likely to be oscillating bullish [7][8] - For the palm oil (P) 2509 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "bullish", the intraday view is "oscillating bullish", and the reference view is "oscillating bullish". The core logic involves biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand. Malaysian palm oil production decline and strong exports may lead to inventory decrease, and domestic inventory has risen for 5 consecutive weeks, with prices following the international market and short - term volatility increasing [7][9]