首先，瑞银指出，美股正处于历史高位，估值水平也相当高。上周，标普500指数创下新高，目前较4月 份的低点已上涨了30%。与传统衡量标准的长期平均值相比，当前的估值水平偏高。标普500指数的预 期市盈率为22.5倍，席勒周期市盈率为37.9倍，这两项指标均处于过去20年的第99百分位水平。此外， 还有一些泡沫迹象，比如meme股表现强劲，一些首次公开募股在初始交易中也大幅上涨。 简言之，瑞银认为，美股市场表现稳健，近期屡创新高，预计未来6至12个月还将继续上涨。瑞银对美 国股票的评级为"中性"，但这并非是一种"消极"的态度。瑞银重点关注美国的特定行业，包括金融、科 技、医疗保健、公用事业和通信服务行业，同时也在寻找人工智能、电力和能源等领域的结构性增长机 会。 不过，瑞银并不认为市场存在泡沫，企业盈利正在增长。该行近期将标普500指数的每股收益预期上调 至2025年的270美元(增长8%)和2026年的290美元(增长7.5%)。投资者的情绪似乎并未过于乐观：美国个 人投资者协会的调查在最近几周显示净看空情绪。机构的持仓也显得谨慎。历史上导致泡沫破裂的常见 原因之一——利率上升——短期内不太可能出现。瑞银预计美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the overall industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - China's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August rebounded to 50.5, with new orders supporting the expansion of manufacturing output, and domestic demand driving sales growth [7][8]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver prices have risen significantly, and the market continues to be bullish on the unilateral trend of gold and silver, with gold expected to reach $3,600 per ounce and silver to reach $45 per ounce [9][10]. - Black commodities: Strong macro - expectations are fully priced, and the valuation is facing a test from fundamentals. Short - term fundamentals may limit the upward drive of black commodity valuations, but potential policy - related positive risks should be noted [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: As of the latest data, COMEX silver reached a maximum of $41.76 per ounce, and COMEX gold reached $3,557 per ounce. SPDR Gold ETF had a weekly increase of 20.91 tons, and the net long - position ratio in the Shanghai gold market reached a record high [9][10]. - **Driving Factors**: Powell's dovish attitude towards interest rate cuts and the in - line PCE data have increased the expectation of interest rate cuts this year to 75bp. Technically, the breakthrough is the core driver of the upward movement [9]. 3.2 Black Commodities - **Fundamental Situation**: Inventory characteristics of various commodities may have shown signs of loosening, such as the inflection point of coking coal inventory, the slow start of iron ore port inventory accumulation, and the continuous accumulation of downstream steel product inventory. The expected resumption of production after the parade and high pig iron output may deepen inventory contradictions [11]. 3.3 Copper - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,780 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.47%. The spot price was firm due to a high premium [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's August manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the eurozone's August manufacturing PMI rose above the boom - bust line for the first time in three years. Some copper mines and factories had production - related news such as maintenance completion and production resumption [21][23]. 3.4 Zinc - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,175 yuan, with a 0.16% increase. It is expected to trade in a range [24]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI rebounded, which had an impact on the market [25]. 3.5 Lead - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,855 yuan, with a 0.15% decrease. The continuous decrease in inventory supported the price [27]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI improved [28]. 3.6 Tin - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 273,240 yuan, with a 1.94% decrease. It is expected to trade in a range [31]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were various macro - level news such as the performance of the stock and futures markets and international events [32]. 3.7 Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,645 yuan, and the Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 3,008 yuan. The fundamentals of aluminum were weak, and alumina was in low - level oscillation [34]. - **Comprehensive News**: The ECB's inflation target and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI had an impact on the market [36]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 123,450 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,950 yuan. They are expected to have narrow - range oscillations [37]. - **Industry News**: There were many news about nickel production in Indonesia, such as production suspension, quota adjustment, and environmental issues [37][38][39]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate closed at 75,540 yuan, and it is expected to continue its weak - oscillation trend due to the partial suspension of the "trade - in" program [43]. - **Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the automobile "trade - in" subsidy policy in Guangzhou was adjusted [44][45]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon closed at 8,495 yuan, and the PS2511 contract of polysilicon closed at 52,285 yuan. Industrial silicon is recommended to short at high prices, and polysilicon's spot price increased with amplified market fluctuations [46][47]. - **Industry News**: Yunnan's new energy power - grid connection policy was released [47][48][49]. 3.11 Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The 12601 contract of iron ore closed at 766 yuan, with a 2.73% decrease. It is expected to have wide - range oscillations due to repeated macro - expectations [50]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI increased slightly [50]. 3.12 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,039 yuan, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,320 yuan. The rapid inventory accumulation led to price oscillations and corrections [52]. - **Industry News**: There were data on steel production, inventory, and demand in August, and the manufacturing supply index decreased [53][54]. 3.13 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Performance**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures decreased, and the market sentiment was weak, with expectations of weak oscillations [56]. - **Industry News**: There were price and production data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and South Africa's manganese ore export data [57][58]. 3.14 Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,118.5 yuan, and the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,594.5 yuan. They are expected to have wide - range oscillations [59]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI increased slightly [59]. 3.15 Logs - **Market Performance**: Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [61]. - **Macro News**: China's August manufacturing PMI increased slightly [64]. 3.16 Paraxylene, PTA, and MEG - **Market Performance**: The main contract of paraxylene closed at 6,866 yuan, PTA at 4,772 yuan, and MEG at 4,427 yuan. Paraxylene is in a tight supply - demand balance, and PTA and MEG have trading strategies of long PTA and short MEG [65][66]. - **Market News**: There were price changes and trading situations of paraxylene and PTA in the Asian market, and the difficulty in contract price negotiations [67][68].

Core Insights - Fosun International has achieved significant breakthroughs across multiple business segments in the first half of 2025, focusing on deepening its industry advantages and accelerating global market penetration [1] - The company's total revenue reached 87.28 billion yuan, with overseas revenue accounting for 53% at 46.67 billion yuan [1][3] - The core businesses of healthcare, cultural tourism, and financial insurance have shown steady growth, contributing to the overall performance [1][2] Financial Performance - Fosun International's four core subsidiaries generated a total revenue of 63.61 billion yuan, representing 73% of the group's total revenue [2] - Fosun Pharma reported a net profit of 1.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.96% [2] - The cultural tourism segment achieved a record revenue of 9.53 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit growth of 42% [2] Strategic Focus - The company is committed to a strategy of streamlining operations and focusing on high-growth core industries while divesting non-core assets [2] - Innovation remains a core capability, with R&D investments reaching 3.6 billion yuan, supporting a global innovation ecosystem [2][3] - The financial strategy emphasizes resource concentration on potential industry leaders and aims to reduce interest-bearing debt to below 60 billion yuan [3] Global Expansion - Fosun International's overseas business revenue has increased, with international operations contributing significantly to overall income [3][4] - The company is expanding its global footprint through various projects, including lithium mining and energy initiatives in Africa and Southeast Asia [4][5] - Club Med's global performance reached a new high, with revenue of 9.25 billion yuan, reflecting strong demand for vacation services [5] Technological Integration - The company is embracing AI technology to enhance business innovation and operational efficiency, particularly in the cultural tourism sector [6] - A partnership with Alibaba Cloud aims to develop an AI-driven tourism assistant, expected to launch in late September 2025 [6]

Group 1 - The event held in Dongtou, Zhejiang, showcased the region's modern infrastructure, cultural heritage, and economic potential, attracting nearly 40 Taiwanese youths for cultural exchange [1][2] - Participants experienced local industries, including energy and e-commerce, highlighting the market potential and manufacturing capabilities in Wenzhou [2][3] - The event emphasized the cultural connections between Taiwan and the mainland, with activities such as traditional folk performances and music sharing to strengthen ties [2][3] Group 2 - Taiwanese youths expressed surprise at the rapid development in mainland China, with many encouraging peers to visit and witness the changes firsthand [3] - The local government in Wenzhou provides substantial support for Taiwanese entrepreneurs, including free office space and accommodations, fostering a conducive environment for startups [3] - The transformation of Dongtou from a traditional fishing village to a modern tourist destination reflects the broader trend of high-quality development in mainland China [3]

巴基斯坦最近的"连环三笔交易"无疑让不少人看了心头一紧。雷科迪克铜金矿出售给加拿大的巴里克黄 金。石油开采权转手给美国能源公司。而就在此时，巴方又与中国续签了300亿元人民币的互换协议。 这一波操作看似背离中巴"铁哥们"的传统友谊，却让人忍不住思考：巴基斯坦究竟是在表达诚意，还是 演技满满？ 越来越看不懂了巴铁了！一边把矿卖给加拿大，一边把油给了美国，转头却跟中国续签300亿互换！ "朋友"有时比债务更沉重。最近，巴基斯坦三笔让人心惊的交易引发广泛关注。从卖矿石到签协议，巴 基斯坦在美加中三方之间游走。背后藏着怎样的生死抉择？当巴铁的财政危机与战略考量交织在一起， 真诚与演技之间，谁才是它真正的伙伴？ "打两张牌"这一策略显得尤为鲜明。巴基斯坦表面上与美加合作时言辞恳切："共享资源红利"与"强化 能源合作"。而与中国的关系则宣称"中巴关系不可撼动"。这种左右逢源的外交风格，实质上并不是"两 面派"，而是一个处于生死存亡边缘的国家在找饭吃。财政捉襟见肘、军费连年压缩，巴基斯坦无法单 纯依靠情义度日，它只能选择多方合作，寻求更多的"活路"。 近期，印度媒体试图炒作巴基斯坦与中国的军购波动，声称"中国向巴出售导弹价 ...

·········································································································[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 2 Sep 2025 ```··························································································································································································································································· 东南亚可选消费必需消费 Southeast Asia Discretionary Staples 东南亚指数双周报第 6 期：高位再迎调整，越南逆势上涨 ASEAN Index Tracking：Correcti ...

每经AI快讯，9月1日，波兰能源指数延续跌势，最新下跌5.7%。 ...

新华财经北京9月1日电法国商界领袖警告，法国当前政治动荡可能产生严重经济后果。 英国《金融时报》9月1日报道，法国商界领袖抱怨当前法国政治缺乏确定性，也没有达成如何修复公共财政的政治共识。 法国总理贝鲁8月25日对政府2026年预算草案作解释说明时说，为摆脱政府面临的困境，他要求国民议会9月8日对其领导的政府进行信任投票。 1月14日，法国总理贝鲁在巴黎的国民议会发表演讲。新华社发（奥雷利安·莫里萨尔摄） 《金融时报》预测，这次投票结果前景不妙。反对党已宣布将否决政府财政赤字计划。 法国企业运动组织负责人帕特里克·马丁警告，法国面临真实的"衰退风险"，国家已处于"风雨飘摇的境地"。他在商业会议上告诉媒体记者："订单正在枯 竭，关税压力加剧，如今再次叠加法国式政治风险……这无疑给经济增长带来新的威胁。" 法国政治动荡扰动金融市场。法国基准10年期国债收益率上周突破3.5%，接近欧元区债务危机后最高水平。家乐福超市首席执行官亚历山大·邦帕尔说："现 在只有消费在支撑法国经济增长。不确定性对消费者最为不利……不确定性越强，产生重大冲击的风险就越高。" 安盛集团法国区负责人纪尧姆·博里说："过去18个月政府持续动荡， ...

证券日报网讯9月1日晚间，九丰能源（605090）发布公告称，2025年8月份，公司以集中竞价交易方式 累计回购股份74.5万股，占公司总股本的0.11%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Copper, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Logs [1] - **Bearish**: PVC Pipe, Galvanized Pipe, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Live Pigs [1] - **Sideways**: Aluminium, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Cotton Yarn, Paper Pulp, Asphalt, Styrene, PTA, Naphtha, Short Fiber, Urea, PF, PVC, PG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Report's Core View - After the continuous strong and volume - increasing rise of stock index futures, capital flow amplifies market volatility. With the approaching of key macro - event nodes in September, the index is expected to fluctuate more, and it is recommended to moderately reduce positions and adjust the layout to be mainly long [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Multiple factors drive the prices of different commodities. For example, the expectation of Fed rate cuts and supply - demand situations affect metal prices; seasonal factors, production, and consumption situations influence agricultural product prices; and supply - demand, policy, and geopolitical factors impact energy and chemical product prices [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index futures may experience increased volatility in September, and it is advisable to reduce positions and focus on long positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy favor bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is boosted by safe - haven demand and rate - cut expectations [1]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper is expected to be strong due to Fed rate - cut expectations and tight supply [1]. - Aluminium prices are volatile under domestic consumption off - season and Fed rate - cut expectations [1]. - Alumina has weak fundamentals, but there are opportunities to go long in the far - month contracts [1]. - Zinc prices have limited downside, and short - selling should be cautious [1]. - Nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by macro - sentiment, Fed rate - cut expectations, and supply - demand in the short term [1]. - Tin prices are trending well in the short term due to seasonal maintenance and improved macro - sentiment [1]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore have neutral valuations, unclear industrial drivers, and warm macro - drivers [1]. - PVC pipe and galvanized pipe are bearish due to long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals, and high inventory [1]. - Glass and soda ash are under pressure due to supply surplus [1]. - Coking coal and coke have weakening fundamentals and are expected to be weak [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean oil is re - priced due to factors such as reduced soybean arrivals, consumption season, and trade flow [1]. - Rapeseed oil prices are supported by reduced production and supply - reduction expectations [1]. - Cotton has a near - month squeeze logic, and the 01 contract has limited upside [1]. - Sugar is running strongly but with limited height [1]. - Corn is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and new - grain listing should be monitored [1]. - MO1 has limited downside due to import - cost support [1]. - Paper pulp's 11 - 1 reverse spread can be considered [1]. - Logs are expected to oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - Live pigs are bearish due to increased supply and reduced cost [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil are affected by factors such as India's procurement change, OPEC+ production increase, and tariff issues [1]. - Asphalt's short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent and follows crude oil [1]. - Styrene is affected by rainfall, cost, and inventory factors [1]. - PTA's production has recovered, and profits have been repaired [1]. - Naphtha and related products are affected by industry reform and supply - demand changes [1]. - Short fiber has increased factory maintenance and growing warehouse receipts [1]. - Urea has limited upside and cost - end support [1]. - PF and PVC are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - PG is affected by multiple factors such as capacity reduction, trade, and supply - demand [1]. - Container shipping European Line's freight rate is expected to decline [1].