Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures showed significant divergence in performance from October 13 to October 17, with precious metals, black metals, and base metals leading gains, while energy, chemicals, and agricultural products experienced collective declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 5.54% and crude oil by 6.34% for the week; in the black metal sector, iron ore dropped by 3.02%, while coking coal and coking rose by 1.55% and 0.57% respectively [1] - Precious metals saw substantial increases, with Shanghai gold rising by 10.90% and silver by 10.53% [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market faced multiple bearish pressures, with WTI crude futures dropping below $80 and Brent crude near $82 per barrel; domestic crude oil prices fell by 12.41% [2] - OPEC+ continued its production increase plan, adding 137,000 barrels per day, while U.S. shale oil production showed resilience, slightly increasing to 13.636 million barrels per day [2][3] - Demand weakened significantly, with U.S. refinery utilization dropping by 6.7 percentage points to 85.7%, and Chinese refinery rates also declining [2] Group 3: Livestock Market Trends - Domestic live pig futures continued to decline, with the main contract dropping 3.87% to a three-month low, driven by slow market sentiment and increased outflow from large-scale farms [4] - The supply side remains robust, with the number of breeding sows at 40.38 million, indicating a sufficient long-term supply base [4][5] - Despite expectations for improved demand due to cooler temperatures, actual sales have not met expectations, leading to continued price pressure [4][5] Group 4: Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, although the rate of decline narrowed compared to previous months [7][8] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0%, marking the first increase in 19 months, driven by improved performance in industrial consumer goods [8] - Exports in September grew by 8.3% year-on-year, with a cumulative export growth of 6.1% for the first three quarters, indicating a recovery in trade despite challenges with U.S. exports [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than the market" investment rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market shows initial signs of recovery, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.6% and the Nasdaq by 2.1% [3] - Among 22 sectors, 20 experienced capital inflows, with significant inflows into semiconductor products and equipment (+$46.6 billion) and automotive and automotive parts (+$22.5 billion) [4] - Earnings expectations for the S&P 500 constituents have been adjusted upward by 0.4%, with notable increases in banking (+1.7%) and semiconductor products and equipment (+1.0%) [5] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 increased by 1.6%, while the Nasdaq rose by 2.1% [3] - The automotive and automotive parts sector saw the highest increase at +6.1%, followed by media and entertainment (+4.0%) and food and staples retailing (+3.6%) [3] Capital Flows - Estimated capital inflow for S&P 500 constituents was +$91.7 billion this week, up from +$12.5 billion the previous week [4] - The semiconductor products and equipment sector led with a capital inflow of +$46.6 billion [4] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the S&P 500 has been raised by 0.4% this week [5] - The banking sector saw the largest upward revision in earnings expectations at +1.7% [5]

同比：猪肉价格继续下降 从同比看，安徽省居民消费价格同比由上月持平转为上涨0.3%。 其中，食品价格下降4.6%，降幅较上月收窄1.0个百分点。食品中，鲜菜价格下降16.6%，降幅较上月收 窄5.7个百分点；牛肉价格上涨7.3%，涨幅较上月扩大1.2个百分点；猪肉价格延续下降态势，同比下降 21.0%，降幅较上月扩大2.1个百分点。非食品价格上涨1.5%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。非食品 中，服务价格上涨2.2%，工业消费品价格上涨1.2%。 大皖新闻记者 赵明玉 国家统计局安徽调查总队10月17日发布数据，9月份安徽省居民消费价格总水平环比上涨0.3%，涨幅与 上月持平；同比由上月持平转为上涨0.3%，扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比上涨1.9%。1-9月平均，安 徽省居民消费价格比上年同期上涨0.2%。 环比：CPI上涨0.3% 9月份，安徽省居民消费价格总水平环比上涨0.3%，涨幅与上月持平。具体来看，食品价格上涨1.2%， 涨幅较上月扩大0.2个百分点，影响CPI上涨约0.23个百分点。受高温雨水天气影响，加之临近国庆中秋 假日，居民消费需求增加，鲜菜价格上涨10.6%，涨幅高于季节性8.7个百分点 ...

Core Insights - The annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank are taking place in Marrakech, Morocco, with the participation of Moroccan officials [1] - Morocco has deepened its collaboration with the IMF and World Bank since hosting the meetings in 2023, securing significant financing for development projects [1] Group 1: Financing and Projects - Morocco has received over $28 billion from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) for 215 ongoing projects by the end of 2025, focusing on infrastructure, social security, and climate resilience [1] - The IBRD offers loans at lower costs compared to commercial loans, with interest rates ranging from 5% to 6% [1] - The International Finance Corporation (IFC) has invested nearly $200 million in Morocco's agriculture, financial services, green energy, and earthquake recovery projects, providing financing to private enterprises [1][2] Group 2: Risk Management and Conditions - The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) provides political and sovereign risk guarantees to investors, with Morocco paying millions annually for these assurances [2] - The IMF approved a $1.3 billion project under the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) for Morocco in September 2023, which includes policy conditions for reforms in electricity, subsidies, and public-private partnerships [2][3] - The IMF will conduct three reviews of Morocco's reform progress, with the final loan disbursement scheduled for March 2025 [2][3]

Group 1 - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) postponed the voting on the global shipping net-zero framework (NZF) for one year, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from ships [1] - The NZF includes two components: global fuel emission standards and a pricing mechanism for greenhouse gas emissions from ships, requiring vessels to gradually reduce the greenhouse gas intensity of their fuel [1] - The framework applies to large ocean-going vessels over 5,000 gross tons, which currently account for approximately 85% of global shipping CO2 emissions [1] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has emphasized promoting green transformation in the shipbuilding industry, including expanding the market for LNG engines and developing low-carbon fuels like methanol and ammonia [2] - A comprehensive support system for promoting green shipping has been established in China, with major companies like Sinopec, PetroChina, and Shanghai Electric already making advancements in the production and supply of green marine fuels [2] - Domestic ports such as Shanghai Yangshan Port and Ningbo Zhoushan Port have the capability to refuel vessels with LNG and green methanol [2] Group 3 - The transition to green energy in the shipping industry faces challenges in terms of cost and technology, but the global trend towards green shipping is expected to continue [3] - Industry experts recommend that relevant departments and companies gradually improve their industrial layout to effectively respond to future challenges [3]

2025 年 10 月 18 日 Eles of 35 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 奕强 A0230524110003 luangiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 苗伟平 (8621)23297818× huangwp@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 地产市场回升，港口吞吐量下行 高频经济周报 (2025.10.12-2025.10.18) 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ● 工业生产：生产季节性回升。从上游来看，本期全国电厂样本区域用煤量周度环比下行 1.27%，石油沥青装置开工率周度环比上行 1.30pcts 至 35.80%，高炉开工率周度环比 持平上周 84.25%，粗钢产量周度环比上行 7.57%。从地产链来看，螺纹钢开工率周度环 比上行 1.35pcts 至 41.33%，浮法玻璃开工率环比上行 0.34pcts 至 76.65%，磨机运转 率周度环比下行 0.49pcts 至 37.89%。从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ESG China Innovation Annual Conference (2025) and the first ESG International Expo will be held in Beijing from October 24 to 26, aiming to stimulate ESG innovation among Chinese enterprises and promote the construction of a Chinese-style ESG system [2][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The annual conference is co-hosted by the China Enterprise Reform and Development Research Association and Shougang Group, focusing on "full-chain innovation leading green transformation for the future" [2]. - The event aligns with national strategies such as Chinese-style modernization and green low-carbon development, serving as a key practice to advance China's ESG initiatives [2]. Group 2: Conference Structure - The main forum will include leadership speeches, the release of seven core outcomes, industry leader presentations, and roundtable discussions, featuring the "2025 Annual ESG Practice Report" and China's first ESG large model [3]. - Fifteen parallel sessions will cover topics like "theoretical innovation driving development in Chinese-style ESG" and "ESG innovation and new opportunities in green finance," creating a comprehensive logical chain from concept to practice [3]. Group 3: International Expo - The first ESG International Expo is the world's first international expo focusing on Chinese-style ESG practices, featuring three innovations: bilateral exchange of local achievements and international experiences, precise zoning by state-owned enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, and financial sectors, and interactive formats like VR experiences [3][4]. - The expo has attracted over 70 participating organizations, including 15 central enterprises, 14 local state-owned enterprises, 10 private enterprises, 18 foreign enterprises, one local government, nine international organizations, and four public welfare organizations, showcasing diversity, internationalization, and public welfare characteristics [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in the Chinese stock market and gold prices, analyzing the driving forces behind these trends and providing investment advice for ordinary investors. Stock Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the 4000-point mark, indicating a ten-year high in the stock market [3] - The stock market's momentum is attributed to various factors, including improvements in listed companies' fundamentals, declining interest rates, and policy stimuli [10][12] - The market is characterized by high turnover rates, leading to elevated valuations, making it challenging for investors to profit [6][7] - The concept of a "slow bull" market is discussed, suggesting that a sustained upward trend over three to five years would be necessary to confirm this classification [9][10] Investment Psychology - Investors often struggle with greed and fear, which can lead to poor investment decisions [4] - The importance of understanding the fundamentals of listed companies and avoiding herd mentality is emphasized [5][6] Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have surged, recently surpassing $4300 per ounce, raising concerns about potential overvaluation [3][41] - The article suggests caution in investing in gold at current high prices, advocating for a more strategic approach to asset allocation [36][40] Economic Context - The article highlights the disconnect between stock market performance and economic growth, noting that corporate profit growth remains low despite rising stock prices [16][19] - The potential for a shift in asset allocation from real estate to the stock market is discussed, as traditional investment avenues become less viable [28][29] Future Outlook - The article posits that for a sustainable "slow bull" market, corporate earnings growth must exceed 10% [16] - The need for a more mature capital market that embraces value investing and improves corporate governance is emphasized [8][12]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The gold market is experiencing a surge, with signs of increasing market enthusiasm, including rising implied volatility and domestic gold premiums [1] - There is a concern about the possibility of a short-term peak in gold prices, despite the long-term bullish trend [1] - Historical patterns suggest that if the current environment is indeed a super bull market for gold, prices may continue to rise for another 2-3 years [1] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - The current silver market is characterized by a significant short squeeze, differing from earlier market conditions influenced by tariffs [2] - The arbitrage mechanism between New York and London is crucial, with the current situation involving a reverse arbitrage strategy [2][3] - The complexity and risk of the reverse arbitrage mechanism are higher than the traditional arbitrage, as it requires holding physical silver [3] Group 3: U.S. Trade Policies Impact - The U.S. has implemented new port fees for Chinese shipping companies, increasing costs significantly for both West and East Coast routes [4] - A 100% tariff on imports from China is set to take effect in November, which may weaken demand in the short term but the impact is expected to be limited [5] Group 4: Copper Market Outlook - Recent U.S. tariffs have heightened concerns about global economic prospects, impacting copper demand expectations [11] - Supply constraints are emerging, particularly with the Grasberg mine facing significant production cuts, leading to a projected copper supply deficit [11][12] - Global copper inventories have increased recently, but ongoing supply tightness may lead to further inventory depletion [12] Group 5: Macro Economic Trends - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and the domestic "anti-involution" trend may lead to a structural bull market in commodities [13] - The Chinese economy is showing signs of weak recovery, with internal demand issues exacerbated by real estate sector challenges [14][16] - The market is closely monitoring the execution of anti-involution policies and their impact on economic recovery [17]

Core Points - The ESG China Innovation Annual Conference (2025) and the first ESG International Expo will be held from October 24 to October 26 in Beijing, focusing on "full-chain innovation leading green transformation" [1] - The conference aims to stimulate ESG innovation actions among Chinese enterprises and promote the construction of a Chinese-style ESG system, responding to national strategies such as modernization and green low-carbon development [1][3] - This year's conference marks a transition from the previous focus on ESG concept popularization and industry chain collaboration to a deeper emphasis on full-chain innovation and transformation [1][2] Event Structure - The conference will adopt a "1+15+1" structure, featuring one main forum, fifteen parallel sessions, and one ESG international expo, serving as a "showcase, connector, and accelerator" for ESG practices in China [2] - The main forum will include leadership speeches, the release of seven core outcomes, industry leader presentations, and roundtable discussions, with key outcomes such as the "2025 Annual ESG Practice Report" and the first ESG large model [2] - The fifteen parallel sessions will cover topics like "theoretical innovation driving development," "new opportunities in ESG innovation and green finance," and "digital technology empowering ESG innovation," ensuring a comprehensive discussion from concept to practice [2] Participation and Impact - The conference is expected to gather over a thousand representatives from government, various enterprises, international organizations, and academic institutions across dozens of key industries, including energy, manufacturing, finance, and technology [3] - The first ESG International Expo has attracted over 70 participating organizations, including central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, foreign enterprises, and international organizations, highlighting the diversity and internationalization of the event [3] - Notably, over 37% of the participating organizations are from overseas, showcasing the global influence of China's ESG practices and facilitating efficient connections between domestic and international ESG systems [3]