【光大宏观】假期海外地缘局势动荡，全球权益市场多数上涨，港股能源、半导体、软件表现偏强；大宗商品涨 跌分化，金银油齐涨，美元走强压制港股，但人民币升值及特朗普访华，总体提振节后权益市场的风险偏好。 美国较强的通胀和经济数据对于降息预期带来掣肘，短期降息交易较为波折～ 【光大宏观】假期海外地缘局势动荡，全球权益市场多数上涨，港股能源、半导体、软件表现偏强；大宗商品涨 跌分化，金银油齐涨，美元走强压制港股，但人民币升值及特朗普访华，总体提振节后权益市场的风险偏好。 ...

据环球时报，根据德国总理府网站公布的访华行程，默茨24日从德国启程，将于25日在北京出席德中经 济顾问委员会座谈会，并与中国领导人举行会晤。在北京访问期间，他还将参观故宫以及德国车企梅赛 德斯-奔驰。之后，默茨将前往杭州，访问中国机器人企业宇树科技以及德国企业西门子能源。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：山上 ...

作为一键布局"一带一路"核心资产的高效工具，一带一路ETF富国（515150）覆盖了基建、能源、资 源、通信等关键领域的龙头企业，精准捕捉沿线经济复苏红利。场外投资者也可通过联接基金（A类 007786/C类007787/E类022096）参与布局，把握节后主题行情的修复机遇。 每日经济新闻 春节后首个交易日，"一带一路"主题强势回归，一带一路ETF富国（515150）盘中涨幅突破3%，截至发 稿的最新涨幅为3.12%。从指数成分股的表现来看，能源与航运板块成为今日领涨主力。南网能源、石 化油服、中远海能、招商轮船等多只个股收获10CM涨停，中海油服、中国巨石、烽火通信、云天化等 能源股涨幅均超7%。 相关机构指出，节后市场的强势表现，源于多重利好的集中兑现。一方面，项目落地提速。春节期间， 多个"一带一路"重点项目的开工计划密集公布，直接带动相关产业链景气度回升；另一方面，外贸韧性 凸显。节后跨境贸易需求快速恢复，进一步强化了市场对沿线贸易与投资的信心。 ...

中国外交部发言人2月23日宣布，德国总理默茨将于25日至26日应邀对中国进行正式访问。默茨上周在 社交平台X上发文称，"愿马年为德中关系注入力量、带来新动力"，并表示期待不久后启程访华。欧洲 问题专家23日对《环球时报》记者表示，这是一次迟来但意义重大的访问，近期国际形势的变化，让德 国及默茨政府逐渐意识到，必须进一步提升对华关系的重要性。对默茨本人而言，这次访华也是一次重 要的认知更新契机。 根据德国总理府网站公布的访华行程，默茨24日从德国启程，将于25日在北京出席德中经济顾问委员会 座谈会，并与中国领导人举行会晤。在北京访问期间，他还将参观故宫以及德国车企梅赛德斯-奔驰。 之后，默茨将前往杭州，访问中国机器人企业宇树科技以及德国企业西门子能源。 据欧洲新闻台20日报道，默茨在基民盟党代会上宣布访华消息时表示："我们需要与全球各国发展经济 关系，这当然包括中国这样的国家。"他同时强调，将率领一支"庞大的商务代表团"一同访华。他表 示："当今的外交政策同样也是对外经济政策，而对外经济政策是我们经济政策的核心组成部分。" 据德国《商报》报道，这支"庞大的商务代表团"包括约30位高级商业代表，其中包括拜尔制药、 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Energy ETF Guangfa (159945), which opened with a gain of 1.15% at 1.321 yuan on February 24 [1] - The major holdings of the Energy ETF include China Shenhua, which rose by 0.68%, China Petroleum by 3.42%, China Petrochemical by 1.57%, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical by 1.14%, China National Offshore Oil by 4.10%, Jereh Group which fell by 0.41%, Yanzhou Coal Mining by 2.02%, China Coal Energy by 1.04%, Guanghui Energy by 2.22%, and Shanxi Coking Coal by 0.57% [1] - The performance benchmark for the Energy ETF Guangfa is the CSI All Share Energy Index, managed by Guangfa Fund Management Co., with a return of 30.72% since its establishment on June 25, 2015, and a return of 7.72% over the past month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations and declines due to the Chinese New Year holiday, with a recommendation to focus on sectors such as precious metals, energy, consumer, and technology for potential investment opportunities [1][5]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market had only two trading days during the week (February 16 to February 20), with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.58%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 2.78%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreasing by 0.81% [2]. - Among the primary industries, eight sectors rose while three fell, with energy, materials, and industrial sectors showing the highest gains of 3.65%, 2.27%, and 1.03% respectively. Conversely, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and communication services sectors faced declines of 1.86%, 1.50%, and 0.13% respectively [2]. Market Liquidity - Due to the holiday, the Hong Kong market had a half-day trading session on February 16, with a trading volume of HKD 85.056 billion. On February 20, the trading volume was HKD 165.461 billion, lower than the previous week's average of HKD 240.643 billion [3]. - Short selling amounted to HKD 23.727 billion, representing 14.43% of the total, significantly higher than the previous week's average of 12.56% [3]. - Over the past week, there was a net inflow of USD 321 million from active foreign funds and USD 697 million from passive foreign funds into Hong Kong stocks, both lower than the previous week's inflows [3]. Valuation and Risk Appetite - As of February 20, the Hang Seng Index had a PE ratio of 12.09 and a PB ratio of 1.23, which are at the 79% and 55% percentile levels since 2010 [4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.08%, with the risk premium for the Hang Seng Index at 4.19%, positioned at the 5% percentile since 2010 [4]. - The AH share premium index for the Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect decreased by 1.02 points to 116.40, at the 9% percentile level since 2014 [4]. Investment Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 was revised down to an annualized rate of 1.4%, below the expected 2.5% and the revised 4.4% from Q3 [5]. - President Trump announced an increase in the import tariff on global goods from 10% to 15% [5]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as precious metals and energy due to rising geopolitical risks and adjustments in U.S. tariff policies, as well as the consumer sector, which is expected to benefit from increased consumption policies [5]. The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with potential rebounds anticipated due to advancements in AI [5].

Group 1 - The global commodity market showed a mixed trend during the Spring Festival holiday, with precious metals leading the gains and a strong performance in the energy sector [1] - Significant increases were observed in COMEX silver and gold futures, as well as Brent and WTI crude oil futures, drawing market attention [1] - Factors such as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, US tariff policy decisions, and tight silver inventories supported the price increases of precious metals and crude oil [1] Group 2 - Future market outlook indicates that commodity price volatility is likely to increase due to supply uncertainties, seasonal demand fluctuations, and macroeconomic disturbances [1] - Precious metals and crude oil are expected to remain the core commodities driving market volatility, necessitating close attention to related risks [1]

（来源：千龙网） 新华社北京2月23日电 题：赶订单、保供应、抓安全——春节假期企业持续生产扫描 机器轰鸣声不绝于耳、自动化生产线高速运转、工人们紧张有序地忙碌……新春佳节，年味漫溢城乡街 巷，全国不少企业生产车间依然是一番忙碌景象。 宁波超260家企业、数万名员工坚守生产一线；洛阳超280家规上工业企业保持连续生产，较2025年增加 约30家；天津有约90家重点工业企业在春节期间连续生产，预计2月24日重点工业企业的整体复工率达 86.3%……保供应、赶订单，各地共同绘就一幅春节不停工、实干促发展的奋进画卷。 稳产保供，确保春节货丰价稳年味浓。 在南京华信藤仓光通信有限公司，也是一派繁忙场景。随着人工智能浪潮席卷全球，高性能光纤光缆的 需求激增，并直接传导至生产端，企业订单已排到下半年。 拉丝工艺工程师李红军大年初一就早早返岗："订单已经饱满，春节期间，我们38条光纤生产线全开， 争分夺秒保交付。" "春节不打烊"，既是稳住客户、稳住市场的主动作为，也是企业抢占全年发展先机的重要一环。 抢抓生产，安全这根弦须臾不可松懈。 拉网式排查危化品罐区等重点区域、开展安全教育培训、增设重点看护岗位……在广西太阳纸业有 ...

春节余韵未散，资本市场已将目光聚焦于节后A股走势。其中最受关注的焦点问题莫过于：春节后A股是否会受到美国关税政策变动的影响？ 经过全面分析特朗普政府关税操作逻辑及其对中国企业与资本市场的实际影响，可以明确得出结论——这种影响基本可以忽略，但背后蕴含的深层逻辑值得 细细拆解。 自2025年特朗普重掌白宫以来，美国对中国商品接连加征"芬太尼关税"与"对等关税"。这两项政策看似突然，实则深植于美国国内政治土壤：通过贸易保护 措施扶持本土产业、缩小贸易逆差，是特朗普一贯推行的经济民族主义政策延续。经过多轮中美经贸磋商，美方最终将这两项关税税率设定为各10%，叠加 后形成20%的额外关税壁垒。 然而，戏剧性转折发生在美国最高法院，该机构以程序瑕疵为由裁定两项关税无效，理论上让税率瞬间归零。特朗普政府随即援引《贸易法》第122条紧急 加征15%临时关税，形成"先减后增"的税率波动。 从数字表面看，20%关税撤销后新增15%关税，实际税率净减5%，这种微小变动对贸易流量影响微乎其微。 更值得关注的是美国贸易代表办公室启动的301调查程序。 这一调查机制在美国贸易工具箱中具有特殊地位，其设计初衷正是通过法律化、制度化的调查流 ...

Group 1: Financial Derivatives - The overall macro environment is optimistic, with low inflation data stimulating interest rate cut expectations, leading to increased liquidity and risk appetite in the markets [1][2] - U.S. and Iran negotiations are ongoing, with tensions remaining due to unresolved nuclear issues, while U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks are gradually cooling down [1] - Recommendations include a cautious approach post-holiday, suggesting to observe market movements before making significant investments [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - During the Spring Festival, precious metals experienced significant volatility, initially declining before rebounding due to U.S. GDP growth data falling short of expectations [2][3] - The announcement of new tariffs by Trump on global imports has raised concerns about trade conflicts and economic downturns, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [2] - Silver saw a notable increase of nearly 8% in a single day, indicating strong market reactions to geopolitical developments [2] Group 3: Shipping Index (European Route) - Shipping rates on the European route remained stable during the holiday, with no new positions taken by major shipping companies [3] - The overall sentiment in the market is positive due to a rise in commodity prices, although the shipping rates are expected to face downward pressure in the coming months due to seasonal demand fluctuations [3] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper prices fluctuated between $12,500 and $13,100 per ton during the holiday, influenced by weak domestic demand and rising inventories [4] - Aluminum prices increased by approximately 1.34% during the holiday, with inventory levels in China expected to reach a five-year high post-holiday, potentially pressuring prices [5] - Zinc prices remained stable, with expectations of a slight rebound in processing fees as domestic mines resume production [6] Group 5: Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices rose over 5% during the holiday due to geopolitical tensions, with U.S. crude oil inventories decreasing unexpectedly [16] - PX prices increased by $25 per ton, driven by higher oil prices and strong demand from the polyester sector, although overall supply and demand are expected to weaken in the first quarter [17][18] - Ethylene glycol prices are anticipated to face downward pressure due to high port inventories, despite expectations of improved demand in the second quarter [19] Group 6: Agricultural Products - U.S. soybean prices fluctuated, influenced by trade expectations and supply concerns from Argentina, with a slight overall increase of about 1.67% [35] - Palm oil prices rose by approximately 1.89% during the holiday, but are expected to face downward pressure as the traditional demand season approaches [36] - Corn prices are expected to remain stable post-holiday, with supply pressures from increased market activity and demand from deep processing enterprises [37]