Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the U.S. is attempting to dominate the global energy market through various means, including political manipulation and coercion [1]. Group 1 - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov claims that the U.S. employs tactics such as coups, kidnappings, and even assassinations to achieve its energy market goals [1]. - Lavrov emphasizes that the U.S. prioritizes its own interests over any international agreements, particularly aiming to marginalize Russia in the European energy market [1]. - The article suggests that for the U.S. to collaborate with Russia, it must respect Russian interests [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading activity in the commodity options market decreased this week, with the average daily trading volume at 8.28 million lots and the average daily open interest at 9.05 million lots, showing a -22.31% and +5.14% change respectively compared to the previous period. The geopolitical impact in the Middle East led to a continued strong upward trend in commodity option underlying assets, especially in the energy and chemical sectors. Many varieties' implied volatility is at a high level in the past year, and investors are advised to pay attention to short - volatility opportunities [1][8][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Option Market Activity - The trading activity in the commodity options market decreased from March 16 to March 20, 2026. The average daily trading volume was 8.28 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 9.05 million lots, with a -22.31% and +5.14% change respectively compared to the previous period. The actively traded varieties included styrene (770,000 lots), methanol (650,000 lots), and silver (520,000 lots). Three varieties' trading volume doubled, namely asphalt (+368%), lead (+191%), and silver (+112%). The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were staple fiber (-84%), propylene (-84%), and caustic soda (-75%). The varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal (750,000 lots), cotton (550,000 lots), and corn (520,000 lots). The varieties with a rapid increase in average daily open interest were asphalt (+154%) and p - xylene (+102%) [1][8]. 3.2 This Week's Key Data Review of Commodity Options - **Underlying Asset Price Movements**: Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, commodity option underlying assets, especially in the energy and chemical sectors, continued to rise. The varieties with high weekly increases included LPG (+19.08%), ethylene glycol (+13.20%), and methanol (+11.66%); the varieties with high weekly decreases included silver (-15.76%), polysilicon (-10.17%), and tin (-8.45%) [2][17]. - **Market Volatility**: The geopolitical impact in the Middle East kept the market sentiment high. The implied volatility of 47 varieties was above the 80th percentile of the past year. The varieties with a significant increase in implied volatility included ethylene glycol (+14.27pct), gold (+11.49pct), and tin (+10.01pct); the varieties with a significant decrease in implied volatility included pure benzene (-85.51pct), styrene (-54.17pct), and p - xylene (-36.17pct) [2][17]. - **Option Market Sentiment**: Currently, the trading volume PCR of silver, copper, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a downward trend; the trading volume PCR of oilseeds, LPG, soda ash, and urea is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an upward trend. The open interest PCR of PVC, asphalt, plastic, and soybean meal is at a historical high, indicating a high level of bearish sentiment; the open interest PCR of live pigs, silver, polysilicon, and rapeseed meal is at a one - year low, indicating a bullish sentiment [3][18]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Major Varieties - This chapter presents key data of major varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [23]. - **Energy**: Relevant charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil [24][25][26]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of PTA [30][31][33]. - **Caustic Soda**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of caustic soda [40][41][42]. - **Glass**: Charts present the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of glass [49][50][52]. - **Soda Ash**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soda ash [58][59][60]. - **Precious Metals**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silver [66][71][68]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of iron ore [75][76][77]. - **Silicomanganese**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silicomanganese [84][85][86]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Charts present the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of copper [92][93][95]. - **Aluminum**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of aluminum [101][102][103]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean Meal**: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soybean meal [109][110][114]. - **Palm Oil**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of palm oil [118][119][121]. - **Cotton**: Charts present the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of cotton [126][128][130].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to undergo a three-phase evolution: "short-term emotional shock → mid-term fundamental transmission → long-term structural differentiation" if a prolonged conflict occurs between the US and Iran. The macroeconomic environment is characterized by "low growth, high interest rates, and persistent inflation," but the valuation advantage, high dividend characteristics, and support from southbound funds provide relative resilience for Hong Kong stocks among non-US assets [1][3]. Market Performance - During the week from March 16 to March 20, Hong Kong's three major indices all declined: the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.74%, the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.12%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 1.12% [2]. - Among sectors, three industries saw gains while eight experienced declines. Notably, the industrial sector rose by 2.54%, the financial sector increased by 1.71%, and the energy sector grew by 0.96%. Conversely, materials fell by 10.09%, communication services dropped by 3.7%, and information technology decreased by 3.19% [2]. Liquidity Analysis - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 284.51 billion, a decrease of HKD 8.92 billion from the previous week [2]. - Southbound funds recorded a net outflow of HKD 6.329 billion, a significant reduction of HKD 58.769 billion compared to the previous week's net inflow [2]. - As of March 18, global active foreign funds experienced a net outflow of USD 1.28 million from Hong Kong stocks, while passive foreign funds saw a net outflow of USD 2.04 million, marking an increase in outflows compared to the previous week [2]. Valuation and Risk Preference - As of March 20, 2026, the Hang Seng Index's PE and PB ratios were 12.38 times and 1.27 times, respectively, placing them at the 81% and 63% percentile levels since 2010 [3]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 11 basis points to 4.39%, with the Hang Seng Index's risk premium at 3.69%, which is -1.82 standard deviations from the 3-year rolling mean, positioning it at the 2% percentile since 2010 [3]. - The Hang Seng Stock Connect AH premium index decreased by 2.36 points to 119.81, which is at the 16.60% percentile level since 2014 [3]. Investment Strategy - Three main investment lines are recommended: 1. **Cyclical Sector**: Focus on traditional energy resources like oil, natural gas, and coal, as well as precious metals and key metals related to military and hard technology [4]. 2. **Financial and Consumer Discretionary Sectors**: The financial sector is currently at historical low valuations, providing a significant margin of safety. Consumer discretionary is expected to benefit from recovery and is seen as a defensive growth sector amid geopolitical disturbances [4]. 3. **Technology Sector**: Emphasis on hard technology with self-controllable logic, particularly in AI, semiconductors, electronics, and communications, which are expected to show strong resilience amid external uncertainties [4].

Commodity Market - As of March 20, London spot gold decreased by 3.42%, closing at $4,491.670 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures fell by 2.47%, settling at $4,492.0 per ounce [1] - London spot silver dropped by 6.80%, ending at $67.897 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures declined by 4.78% [1] - LME copper fell by over 2%, while LME zinc saw a slight increase; LME aluminum and LME tin both decreased by over 1%, and LME nickel experienced a minor decline [1] Oil Market - As of March 20, ICE Brent crude oil rose by 0.61%, and NYMEX WTI crude oil increased by 2.66% [2]

Group 1 - The report highlights the resurgence of input inflation and suggests capturing steepening curve trading opportunities in the bond market [1] - The current inflationary pressures are primarily driven by supply constraints and external shocks, particularly in the context of rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [5][12] - Historical analysis indicates that the causes of inflation are more critical than the inflation readings themselves, with demand-driven inflation having a more significant impact on the bond market compared to supply-driven or input-driven inflation [72] Group 2 - The report discusses the implications of the recent Middle East conflicts on inflation expectations and the bond market, noting a significant rise in oil and gas prices, with Brent crude and natural gas prices increasing by 49.90% and 66.98% respectively from February 27 to March 19, 2026 [16][19] - It emphasizes that if oil prices remain high, the Producer Price Index (PPI) could see a substantial increase, potentially elevating annual PPI growth rates to between 0.9% and 5.8% depending on the extent of oil price increases [23][24] - The analysis of past PPI uptrends reveals that the bond market typically reacts more to the underlying causes of inflation rather than the inflation figures themselves, with historical data showing that bond yields tend to rise during periods of demand-driven inflation [72][26]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reported that CK Hutchison's (00001) 2025 performance met expectations, with a basic net profit of HKD 22.3 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase, excluding a one-time loss of HKD 10.5 billion from the merger of 3UK and Vodafone UK [1] - The group's EBITDA grew by 7% year-on-year in local currency, indicating stable performance across various business segments [1] - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 1.6, with an annual dividend of HKD 2.3, representing a 5% increase and a stable payout ratio of approximately 40% [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised its earnings per share forecast for CK Hutchison by 11% for this year, while maintaining the forecast for next year and introducing projections for 2028 [2] - For the fiscal year 2026, Goldman Sachs predicts a 16% year-on-year growth in core earnings to HKD 25.9 billion, driven by synergies from the UK telecom merger and the benefits from rising oil prices for Cenovus Energy [2] - Sensitivity analysis indicates that a USD 1 increase in oil prices could lead to an increase in CK Hutchison's earnings by approximately HKD 300 million or 1-2% [2]

Trade Performance - In the first two months of 2026, China's total import and export value reached a historical high of $6,565.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.80%[9] - Exports totaled $6,565.78 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 21.80%, while imports reached $4,429.60 billion, growing by 19.80%[9] - The trade surplus was recorded at $2,136.18 billion, expanding by 26.25% year-on-year[9] Export Dynamics - Mechanical and high-tech products were the main growth drivers, contributing 16.17% to export growth, with integrated circuits, automobiles, and data processing equipment being the most significant contributors[10] - Integrated circuit export prices rose by 55.60%, while automobile export volumes increased by 57.90%, indicating strong resilience in high-end manufacturing[2] - ASEAN, EU, and Hong Kong were the largest markets for exports, while exports to the US continued to show a negative impact, dragging down growth by 1.54 percentage points[12] External Environment - Global manufacturing PMI showed marginal improvement in February, providing a favorable external environment for China's export resilience[2] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has led to rising international oil prices, but China's energy self-sufficiency rate reached 84.4% in 2025, mitigating the impact on industrial production[3] Future Outlook - The external environment and internal support for China's foreign trade are expected to remain positive, with ongoing regional trade cooperation and policy support enhancing export competitiveness[27] - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, signed in October 2025, is anticipated to provide institutional guarantees for stable trade growth with ASEAN[27]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a reasonable price increase to support economic growth, employment, and consumer spending, countering the misconception that lower prices are always better for the economy [4][5]. Group 1: Economic Context and Price Dynamics - The government aims for a price increase target of 2% to stimulate consumer spending and improve employment and income levels [4]. - A commentary in "Qiushi" magazine highlights the relationship between reasonable price levels and better employment and wage conditions, advocating for a proactive approach to price recovery [4]. - The article discusses the misconception that lower prices are beneficial, warning that persistent low prices can lead to a vicious cycle of low consumption and low profits for businesses, ultimately harming employment and income [4][5]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Manufacturing Dominance - Since 2020, it has been recognized that China operates as a low-price society, with the cost of modern living being the lowest globally [7]. - China's infrastructure projects, such as high-speed rail and highways, significantly support its high consumption rates, with global shares in various sectors like high-speed rail at 70% and electric vehicle sales at 65% [8][9]. - The article lists impressive statistics on China's infrastructure, including 5.04 million kilometers of high-speed rail and 18.4 million kilometers of highways, which bolster its manufacturing and consumption capabilities [8][9]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Global Trade - China's manufacturing sector holds a dominant position globally, producing 70% of the world's mobile phones and 80% of solar batteries, among other products [12][14]. - The country is the largest importer of various commodities, including iron ore and soybeans, indicating its critical role in global supply chains [15]. - The article argues that China's manufacturing output and import capabilities position it as a global production leader, countering narratives of insufficient domestic demand [16]. Group 4: Economic Challenges and Future Directions - The article warns of potential overcapacity in manufacturing sectors, suggesting that the scale of production may exceed global demand, leading to challenges in maintaining cost reductions [30]. - It highlights the need for a shift from price competition to value competition, advocating for improved labor conditions and reduced working hours to enhance overall economic health [32][34]. - The government is taking steps to address "involution" in competition, aiming to optimize market conditions and promote a more sustainable economic environment [26][34].

Group 1 - Brent crude oil briefly surged to $119 per barrel before retreating, currently up 6.56% at $114.42 per barrel, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and increased market volatility [1] - Major European stock indices mostly declined, with the UK FTSE 100 and Germany's DAX index dropping over 2%, and France's CAC40 index down 1.76% [3] - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin currently priced at $70,214 per coin, down 5% in the past 24 hours, and Ethereum falling to $2,177.10 per coin, down 5.83% [5][6] Group 2 - Iranian armed forces have stated that their offensive and defensive actions are ongoing and unprecedented, warning that attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure would lead to severe retaliation against the U.S., Israel, and their allies [9] - U.S. President Trump claimed he was unaware of Israel's attack on Iranian oil and gas facilities, while Israeli officials indicated that the attack was coordinated with the U.S. [10] - The Israeli Air Force conducted the airstrike, with plans to target additional Iranian infrastructure, while Iran's naval commander warned that oil facilities related to the U.S. would be treated similarly to U.S. military bases and would face severe attacks [11]

Market Overview - The A-share market continued its adjustment trend on March 19, with the Shanghai Composite Index dipping below the 4000-point mark, reaching a low of 3994.17 points, down over 200 points from the year's high of 4197.23 points [1] - Market trading volume has shrunk significantly, decreasing from over 3 trillion yuan at the beginning of March to 2.13 trillion yuan on March 19, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors [1] External Macro Environment - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for February 2026 rose by 0.7% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, marking the highest level since February 2025 and significantly exceeding market expectations [4] - The unexpected rise in inflation data has disrupted market expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve monetary easing, with traders reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts to just one occurrence later in the year [5] Geopolitical and Economic Impact - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have led to increased economic costs, with significant missile strikes reported by Iran against U.S.-related oil and energy facilities, causing a spike in international oil prices [6] - Brent crude oil prices surged over 8.44%, surpassing $110 per barrel, while WTI crude oil exceeded $96 per barrel, indicating a volatile market driven by geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions [6] Market Dynamics and Investment Trends - The market is experiencing a shift in investment style, with a potential move from technology growth sectors to traditional value sectors as the gold-oil ratio has significantly declined [7] - Short-term market movements are expected to revolve around the 4000-point level, with structural opportunities emerging, while medium-term prospects suggest a consolidation around this level, with a slow bull market anticipated [7]