Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 50 tons to 137,175 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 129,350 tons and a cancellation ratio of 5.70% [1][3] - Aluminum inventory remained stable at 487,125 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 405,650 tons and a cancellation ratio of 16.73% [1][5] - Zinc inventory decreased by 700 tons to 37,325 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 24,425 tons and a cancellation ratio of 34.56% [1][9] - Tin inventory remained unchanged at 2,735 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 2,555 tons and a cancellation ratio of 6.58% [1][11] - Nickel inventory decreased by 54 tons to 250,476 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 244,356 tons and a cancellation ratio of 2.44% [1][13] Group 2: Warehouse Specific Changes - In Rotterdam, copper inventory decreased by 50 tons to 14,500 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 1.21% [3] - In Singapore, zinc inventory decreased by 700 tons to 35,875 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 35.89% [9] - In Hamburg, aluminum inventory remained stable at 3,075 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 0.00% [5] - In Kaohsiung, tin inventory remained stable at 40 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 0.00% [11]

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the changes in warehouse inventories for various metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and nickel, highlighting the fluctuations in registered and canceled warehouse receipts. Group 1: Copper Inventory Changes - The total copper inventory decreased to 137,225 tons, down from 137,450 tons, reflecting a change of -0.38% [1][3] - Registered warehouse receipts for copper increased by 3.64% to 7,825 tons, while the cancellation ratio rose to 5.70% [1][3] Group 2: Aluminum Inventory Changes - Aluminum inventory stands at 491,225 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from the previous day, marking a change of -0.83% [5][7] - The cancellation ratio for aluminum is reported at 17.42%, with registered receipts totaling 85,575 tons [5][7] Group 3: Zinc Inventory Changes - Zinc inventory is recorded at 38,025 tons, showing a decrease of 275 tons, which is a change of -0.72% [9] - The cancellation ratio for zinc is 35.77%, with registered receipts at 13,600 tons [9] Group 4: Tin Inventory Changes - Tin inventory increased to 2,735 tons, up by 160 tons, reflecting a change of +7.05% [11] - The cancellation ratio for tin is 8.41%, with registered receipts at 230 tons [11] Group 5: Nickel Inventory Changes - Nickel inventory rose to 250,530 tons, an increase of 186 tons, marking a change of +0.07% [13] - The cancellation ratio for nickel is 2.46%, with registered receipts totaling 6,168 tons [13]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.65% at 45952.24 points, the S&P 500 down 0.63% at 6629.07 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.47% at 22562.54 points [1] - Most large-cap tech stocks declined, including Tesla down over 1%, Facebook down 0.76%, Apple down 0.76%, Amazon down 0.51%, and Microsoft down 0.35%. However, Nvidia rose over 1% and Google increased by 0.17% [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly fell, with Luokung down nearly 9%, Century Internet down over 5%, New Oriental down over 5%, Pony.ai down nearly 4%, and iQIYI down over 3%. On the other hand, Daqo New Energy rose nearly 2%, Atour Hotel increased nearly 2%, Bilibili rose over 1%, and Manbang Group increased over 1% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 0.38% at 24272.93 points, France's CAC40 up 1.38% at 8188.59 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.12% at 9436.09 points [1] Commodities - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 3.40% at $4344.3 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 3.99% at $53.43 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil futures fell, with the main contract down 1.54% at $56.95 per barrel, and Brent crude down 1.37% at $61.06 per barrel [1] Currency and Bonds - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.31% to 98.36, while the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose by 55 basis points to 7.1246 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2-year yield down 8.14 basis points to 3.418%, the 3-year yield down 8.02 basis points to 3.422%, the 5-year yield down 7.63 basis points to 3.543%, the 10-year yield down 5.94 basis points to 3.973%, and the 30-year yield down 4.76 basis points to 4.581% [1] - European bond yields mostly fell, with the UK 10-year yield down 4.2 basis points to 4.499%, France's 10-year yield down 0.6 basis points to 3.333%, Germany's 10-year yield unchanged at 2.569%, Italy's 10-year yield down 2.2 basis points to 3.356%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 1.1 basis points to 3.087% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After a previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. The market risk appetite has decreased, and short - term indices face uncertainties due to concerns about Sino - US tariffs. However, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the mid - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Recent Sino - US trade disputes have led to a short - term decline in risk appetite, which is beneficial for the bond market's repair. But the progress of tariffs is highly uncertain in the later stage. In the fourth quarter, the bond market needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall bond market may maintain a volatile trend, and it may oscillate and repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [8]. - Precious metals have shown strong price performance due to dovish remarks from Fed officials and a tight silver spot situation. Although prices have fallen after a short - term rapid increase, it is still recommended to hold long positions [9][10]. - For various metals and non - metals, the Sino - US trade situation is uncertain, and each product's price trend is affected by its own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. Some products are expected to have limited downside space, while others may face downward pressure [13][15][27]. - In the energy and chemical sectors, different products have different price trends and trading strategies based on their supply - demand balances, inventory levels, and cost factors. Some products are recommended for short - term observation, while others may have opportunities for long - or short - term operations [52][54][55]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different supply - demand situations. Some products are expected to have price increases, while others are expected to decline, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed accordingly [74][75][84]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: In late September, M2 balance was 335.38 trillion yuan, up 8.4% year - on - year; M1 balance was 113.15 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year - on - year; M0 balance was 13.58 trillion yuan, up 11.5% year - on - year. By the end of 2027, 28 million charging facilities will be built nationwide. US nuclear power concept stocks rose strongly, and the rumor of a large robot order for Sanhua Intelligent Control was false [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence. The market risk appetite has decreased, and short - term indices face uncertainties due to concerns about Sino - US tariffs. However, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the mid - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts had different changes. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In late September, M2, M1, and M0 balances had year - on - year increases. The central bank conducted a 435 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Wednesday, with a net investment of 435 billion yuan [5][6][7]. - **Strategy View**: Recent Sino - US trade disputes have led to a short - term decline in risk appetite, which is beneficial for the bond market's repair. But the progress of tariffs is highly uncertain in the later stage. In the fourth quarter, the bond market needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall bond market may maintain a volatile trend, and it may oscillate and repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.39% to 962.08 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 3.97% to 12,138 yuan/kilogram. Fed officials' dovish remarks and a tight silver spot situation led to strong precious metal prices [9]. - **Strategy View**: Although precious metal prices have fallen after a short - term rapid increase, it is still recommended to hold long positions. The reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 921 - 980 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 11,368 - 13,000 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight, Powell mentioned the possible end of balance - sheet reduction. The copper price first rose and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic spot premiums varied. The domestic copper spot import loss narrowed, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased [12]. - **Strategy View**: Trump's threat to impose high tariffs on China is uncertain. Fundamentally, the expected tightening of copper supply in the next two years and the decrease in domestic refined copper production support the price. The short - term decline in copper prices may be limited. The reference operating range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 84,400 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M copper contract is 10,450 - 10,750 US dollars/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price oscillated and rebounded. The LME 3M aluminum contract rose slightly, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at a certain price. Domestic and overseas inventories decreased, and the downstream consumption sentiment improved [14]. - **Strategy View**: The Sino - US trade situation is uncertain. Domestically, with the increase in the proportion of aluminum water, seasonal consumption recovery, and resilient exports, the pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is small, and the downside space for aluminum prices is expected to be limited. The reference operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,740 - 21,050 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M aluminum contract is 2,720 - 2,770 US dollars/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index fell. LME zinc prices also decreased. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the basis and spreads had different values [16]. - **Strategy View**: During the holiday, domestic zinc smelters continued production, and some downstream enterprises had long holidays. The LME registered zinc warrants are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support for Shanghai zinc. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will oscillate at a low level in the short term, with increased risk and volatility [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose. LME lead prices also increased. The domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the basis and spreads had different values [18]. - **Strategy View**: The visible lead ore inventory increased slightly, and the production of primary lead smelters remained high. The waste lead inventory decreased, and the production of secondary lead smelters increased slightly but remained at a low level. The lead ingot factory inventory increased. The downstream storage enterprises had shorter holiday times than in previous years, and the industrial data improved marginally. On October 10, a large number of LME lead warehouse warrants were cancelled, increasing the structural risk of LME lead. It is expected that Shanghai lead will run strongly in the short term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price oscillated. The spot market trading was average, and the price of nickel ore and nickel iron remained stable. The price of MHP remained high due to increased demand [20]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may drive down market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. The recent weakening of nickel iron prices and the significant inventory pressure on refined nickel may drag down nickel prices. However, in the long term, the US easing expectations, China's anti - involution policy, and the RKAB approval are expected to support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider going long on dips if the price drops significantly. The reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose. The domestic futures registered warehouse warrants increased, and the price of tin concentrate decreased. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar and Indonesia was tight, and the smelter's operating rate decreased. The demand in the new energy and AI sectors was strong, but the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors were weak. The demand in the peak season improved marginally, but high prices still inhibited consumption [21]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may drive down market risk appetite, but the short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance, and the demand in the peak season is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 34,000 - 36,000 US dollars/ton [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, and the futures contract price increased slightly. The spot premium was flat [22]. - **Strategy View**: The warehouse warrants of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased this week, and the inventory continued to decline. The available spot for circulation is tight, and the premium is strengthening. If consumption remains strong and resonates with the macro - environment, the upside space for lithium prices may be opened. It is more likely to oscillate strongly in the short term. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 71,880 - 75,280 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell. The domestic and overseas spot prices decreased, and the import window was close to closing. The futures inventory increased, and the ore price remained stable [24]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price is supported in the short term but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may intensify the over - supply situation. However, the increased expectation of Fed rate cuts may drive the non - ferrous metal sector to run strongly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for the resonance of macro - sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract fell slightly. The spot prices in different markets had different changes, and the raw material prices remained stable. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [26]. - **Strategy View**: After the holiday, the social inventory increased significantly, but the terminal consumption was weak, and the market did not show the characteristics of the traditional peak season. The prices of Tsingshan products led the decline, and the market trading was light. It is expected that the market trend will be weak [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The AD2511 contract rose. The trading volume decreased, and the warehouse warrants decreased. The price difference between the AL2511 and AD2511 contracts increased. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price remained unchanged, and the import price increased. The domestic inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy View**: The market sentiment is volatile, and the delivery pressure on the near - month contracts of cast aluminum alloy is still high, and the upside space for prices is relatively limited [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot decreased. The registered warehouse warrants and open interest increased [30]. - **Strategy View**: The overall commodity market atmosphere was weak yesterday, and steel prices continued to decline. Trump's tariff remarks disturbed the market, but the direct impact on steel is limited. Fundamentally, the demand for steel during the National Day holiday was significantly weaker than last year, and the inventory continued to accumulate. In the short term, the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract fell. The spot price and basis had certain values [32]. - **Strategy View**: In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased seasonally, and the near - term arrival volume increased. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output remained stable, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. The inventory accumulation level of steel during the holiday was high, and the post - holiday de - stocking situation is under test. Fundamentally, if the situation of finished steel weakens after the holiday, the iron ore price may adjust accordingly. The terminal demand is weak, and the macro - disturbance continues. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract fell. The spot prices in different regions had different changes, and the inventory increased. The open interest of long and short positions increased. The soda ash main contract fell slightly. The spot price decreased, and the inventory increased. The open interest of long and short positions also increased [34][36]. - **Strategy View**: For glass, some production lines are planned to resume production, and the cost has decreased. The terminal demand is weaker than expected, and the supply pressure is increasing. The market sentiment is cautious and bearish. For soda ash, the supply is stable, but the price has decreased. The demand is weak, and the market trading is light. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [35][36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon main contract rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon main contract also rose. The spot prices were higher than the futures prices. The manganese silicon price is in an oscillation range and is currently close to the lower limit. The ferrosilicon price has broken through the support level and is weak [37]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by short - term demand pressure, the black sector has experienced a downward correction. The high pig iron output still exerts pressure on prices. The price may first decline to release the bearish sentiment and then rise with the expectation of the Fourth Plenary Session. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities on dips. For manganese silicon, if the black sector strengthens, pay attention to the disturbance from the manganese ore end. For ferrosilicon, it is likely to follow the black sector's trend [38][39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures main contract rose. The spot prices remained stable, and the basis was positive. The polysilicon futures main contract rose. The spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis was positive [42][44]. - **Strategy View**: For industrial silicon, the short - term price oscillates. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation is stable in the short term. In the future, the supply pressure will decrease, and the far - month contract valuation is expected to increase. There is still room for price repair. For polysilicon, the market may enter a fundamental correction stage. The short - term price is constrained by high inventory and weak demand. The supply - demand pattern may improve after November. The current price fluctuation is regarded as a technical correction [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and showed signs of stabilization. The long and short sides had different views. The tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday, and the export of semi - steel tires slowed down. The domestic natural rubber inventory decreased. The spot prices of some rubber products increased [47][48][49][50][51]. - **Strategy View**: The macro - disturbance may temporarily decrease, and the rubber price may stabilize in the short term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long on dips with a short - term and quick - in - quick - out strategy. It is also recommended to partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures and related refined oil futures fell. The Singapore ESG oil product inventory data showed different changes in gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil inventories [53]. - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly, so the oil price should not be overly bearish in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, it is recommended to wait and see and wait for the verification of OPEC's export price - support intention when the oil price falls [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol spot and futures prices had different changes, and the basis turned positive. The 1 - 5 spread increased [55]. - **Strategy View**: The import disturbance has weakened, and methanol is expected to return to its own fundamental pricing. The domestic supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is large, and the fundamental situation is weak. However, the downside space is relatively limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [55].

Core Viewpoint - The company has strategically invested in acquiring key mineral resources globally, focusing on nickel, lithium, and phosphorus resources [1] Nickel Resources - The company is continuously expanding its layout around high-quality laterite nickel mines in Indonesia [1] Lithium Resources - The company has established a presence in Argentina with salt lake lithium mines, expecting to control over 10 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) [1] Phosphorus Resources - The company possesses nearly 100 million tons of phosphate rock resources [1] Nickel Smelting Capacity - The company's nickel smelting capacity in Indonesia is close to 200,000 tons [1]

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the changes in metal inventories at the London Metal Exchange (LME), highlighting fluctuations in copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and nickel stocks. Inventory Changes - **Copper Inventory**: Increased by 275 tons to 139,475 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 131,050 tons and a cancellation rate of 6.04% [1][4]. - **Aluminum Inventory**: Rose by 2,200 tons to 508,600 tons, with a registered stock of 403,475 tons and a cancellation rate of 20.67% [2][6]. - **Zinc Inventory**: Remained stable at 38,250 tons, with a registered stock of 22,850 tons and a cancellation rate of 40.26% [9]. - **Tin Inventory**: Decreased by 115 tons to 2,390 tons, with a registered stock of 2,155 tons and a cancellation rate of 9.83% [12]. - **Nickel Inventory**: Increased by 4,260 tons to 236,892 tons, with a registered stock of 229,536 tons and a cancellation rate of 3.11% [14]. Regional Inventory Insights - **Copper**: Significant increases noted in various locations, including Kaohsiung (+200 tons) and Rotterdam (unchanged) [4]. - **Aluminum**: Notable increases in locations such as Klang (+125 tons) and Kaohsiung (unchanged) [6]. - **Zinc**: Stable across regions, with no changes reported [9]. - **Tin**: Decreases observed in multiple locations, including a drop of 40 tons in Singapore [12]. - **Nickel**: Increased stock levels in Singapore (+4,284 tons) and other regions [14].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Tin Company Limited has reached a transaction volume of 1.642 billion RMB, marking the highest level since March 18, 2025, with a stock price increase of 8.90% and a turnover rate of 4.03% [2] Company Summary - Yunnan Tin Company Limited was established on November 23, 1998, with a registered capital of 1.645801952 billion RMB [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the expansion of QDII fund scale and the increase in the number of Southbound Connect investors, the demand and allocation ratio of overseas bond assets by Chinese - funded institutions will rise, and Japanese US - dollar bonds may have high allocation value [22]. - There is a 'long - holiday market' pattern in the bond market this year. Given the large - scale adjustment of yields and a favorable slope, the market during the last two trading days before the National Day holiday may be positive [22]. - Favorable cyclical factors of emerging from low inflation and structural institutional designs such as reducing the savings rate, A - share volatility, attracting long - term funds into the market, and increasing the dividend payout ratio will improve the long - term return of A - shares relative to bonds [23]. - The US bond market is large - scale and mature. However, risks in US municipal bonds should be noted due to the possibility of local government bankruptcy [23]. - The cost - performance of chasing pan - technology stocks in the stock market is decreasing. It is recommended to shift to mid - cap stocks and deploy traditional sectors with low valuations and policy expectations and non - banking sectors. Convertible bonds still have room for performance [23]. - The yield spread has reached a long - cycle bottom. With the end of debt - resolution policies, risks may be re - priced [24]. 3. Summary of Different Sections 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the 4.7% of the same period last year [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, slightly higher than the previous month's 50.1% and the same as the same period last year [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.7%, 6.0%, and 8.8% respectively. New RMB loans in financial institutions reached 590 billion yuan [1]. - In August 2025, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year [1]. - In August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 0.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.64% [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export and import values were 4.4% and 1.3% respectively [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, emphasizing high - quality development during the '15th Five - Year Plan' period [2]. - The new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan can leverage about 6 trillion yuan in investment [2]. - The PBC's Monetary Policy Committee will maintain the stability of the capital market. The A - share market has shown a positive trend this year [3]. - China's water conservancy infrastructure construction has made new progress. The investment in water conservancy construction is expected to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan during the '14th Five - Year Plan' period, 1.6 times that of the '13th Five - Year Plan' [3]. - The US has introduced export control rules, and China firmly opposes this and will safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose. Gold prices hit a record high. London base metals mostly increased. The eight - department plan for the non - ferrous metal industry will support the demand for base metals in the long term [5]. - Bank of America raised its copper price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [5]. - As of September 26th, the inventory of some metals on the London Metal Exchange changed, with tin and zinc inventories decreasing, nickel and aluminum inventories changing, and copper and lead inventories hitting new lows [5]. - As of September 29th, the position of SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.60% [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Beijing Iron Ore Trading Center launched the 'Iron Ore Port Spot Price Index' to challenge the international pricing system [7]. - After the Trump administration's policies, some US coal mining companies' stock prices rose [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC + may increase oil production again in November, and a meeting will be held on October 5th to discuss the increase [9]. - TotalEnergies' CEO said that if the EU bans Russian LNG imports, it can be shipped to Turkey or India. The company expects gas demand to grow by 6% - 7% in the next few years [9]. - Crude oil from the Iraqi Kurdistan region is flowing into Turkey's Ceyhan Port at a rate of 150,000 - 160,000 barrels per day [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Chinese customers have reduced purchases of US soybeans, and South American soybeans are replacing US soybeans in the Chinese market [10]. - The US Department of Agriculture released data on the export inspection volumes of soybeans, wheat, and corn [10]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On September 29th, the central bank conducted 288.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 48.1 billion yuan [12]. 3.3.2 Important News - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, emphasizing high - quality development during the '15th Five - Year Plan' period [13]. - The new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan can leverage about 6 trillion yuan in investment [13]. - In August, local government bonds worth 980.1 billion yuan were issued. From January to August, the total issuance was 7.6838 trillion yuan [14]. - From January to August, the operating income of state - owned enterprises was 53.96 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.2%; the total profit was 2.79 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.7% [14]. - Shanghai issued a document to promote the high - quality development of free - trade offshore bonds [15]. - The US and Japan have introduced export control measures, and China firmly opposes these and will safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [15]. - Banks and wealth management subsidiaries are promoting holiday - themed financial products, but investors need to be aware of risks [15]. - The stock - bond constant ETF is expected to be launched this year [16]. - As of the end of June 2025, China's banking industry's external financial assets, liabilities, and net assets were 1.7721 trillion US dollars, 1.5377 trillion US dollars, and 234.4 billion US dollars respectively [16]. - Some bond - related events include defaults, asset seizures, mergers, and judicial auctions [16]. - Some overseas credit ratings were confirmed, adjusted, or revoked [17]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market weakened, especially the ultra - long - end bonds. The 30 - year treasury bond yield rose by more than 2bp, and the corresponding futures contract fell by 0.47% [18]. - In the exchange bond market, some bonds rose, and some fell [18]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.87%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose by 1.10% [18]. - On September 29th, most money market interest rates rose, and the performance of inter - bank repurchase rates varied [19]. - European and US bond yields generally fell [20]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose by 143 points, and the central parity rate was raised by 63 points. The US dollar index fell by 0.26%, and most non - US currencies rose [21]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Japanese US - dollar bonds may have high allocation value [22]. - The bond market may have a positive trend during the last two trading days before the National Day holiday [22]. - Long - term A - share returns relative to bonds may improve [23]. - The US bond market has its characteristics, and risks in US municipal bonds should be noted [23]. - Stock and convertible bond investment strategies are recommended [23]. - The bond market is at a crossroads, and the yield spread may face re - pricing [24]. 3.4 Stock Market Highlights - A - shares rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.74%. The trading volume was 2.18 trillion yuan [27]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.89%. Southbound funds had a net sell - off of 16.54 billion Hong Kong dollars [27]. - Over 60% of private equity institutions plan to hold heavy positions during the holiday, and most are optimistic about the post - holiday A - share market, with a preference for technology - related sectors [27]. - The capital market is cracking down on illegal activities such as financial fraud [28]. - The stock - bond constant ETF is expected to be launched this year [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. Core Views - The stock market's high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence, and short - term indices face uncertainty due to reduced trading volume, but in the long - run, it's advisable to buy on dips as policy support remains unchanged [4]. - The bond market may improve in the fourth - quarter supply - demand pattern and is likely to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - Precious metals are likely to benefit from the Fed's future easing cycle, and it's recommended to buy on dips, especially for silver [9]. - For most metals in the non - ferrous sector, prices are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, trade situations, and Fed policy expectations, with different short - term trends [12][14][17]. - In the black building materials sector, prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating before the Fourth Plenary Session, but may have long - term potential [42]. - In the energy - chemical sector, different products have different trends based on supply - demand, inventory, and policy factors [54][56]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products' prices are influenced by supply, demand, and seasonal factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [79][81]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market News**: The Politburo met to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the NDRC is promoting a 500 billion yuan policy financial tool [2]. - **Base Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have specific base ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors have diverged, and short - term indices face uncertainty, but long - term buying on dips is recommended [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market News**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts had specific price changes on Monday, and relevant policies were announced [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 288.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 4.81 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: The bond market may oscillate in the fourth quarter, and its performance is related to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Gold and silver prices in different markets had specific changes, and the US government faces a "shutdown" crisis [8]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to buy on dips, especially for silver, and use put options for risk hedging during holidays [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: LME copper and SHFE copper prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [11]. - **Strategy**: Short - term copper prices may continue to oscillate strongly, with potential risks from trade situations [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices have strong support at the bottom, affected by trade situations and Fed policy [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: SHFE zinc and LME zinc prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term SHFE zinc is expected to be weakly running [17]. Lead - **Market News**: SHFE lead and LME lead prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [18]. - **Strategy**: SHFE lead is expected to show a wide - range oscillating pattern [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: SHFE nickel prices oscillated, and spot and cost data were provided [20]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended, and buying on dips can be considered if prices fall enough [21]. Tin - **Market News**: SHFE tin prices oscillated, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [22]. - **Strategy**: Short - term tin prices may remain high and oscillate, and observation is recommended [23]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: Carbonate lithium prices changed, and contract and spot data were provided [24]. - **Strategy**: Carbonate lithium is likely to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to supply and demand [24]. Alumina - **Market News**: Alumina index prices changed, and base and overseas price data were provided [25]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel contract prices changed, and spot and inventory data were provided [28]. - **Strategy**: Stainless steel prices may face downward pressure if supply - demand imbalance worsens [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: AD2511 contract prices changed, and inventory and price difference data were provided [29]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy futures are expected to be weaker than spot, with support from scrap aluminum prices [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil contract and spot prices changed, and inventory data were provided [32]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are likely to remain weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore contract prices changed, and spot and base data were provided [34]. - **Strategy**: Short - term iron ore prices may be affected by supply, demand, and inventory after the holiday [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: Glass and soda ash contract and spot prices changed, and inventory and position data were provided [36][38]. - **Strategy**: Glass is recommended to be viewed bullishly in the short - term, and soda ash is expected to oscillate [37][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon contract prices changed, and spot and base data were provided [40]. - **Strategy**: Black building materials may first decline and then rise, and long - term buying opportunities may appear after the Fourth Plenary Session [42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon contract prices changed, and spot and inventory data were provided [44][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon may oscillate in the short - term, and polysilicon may decline in the short - term [46][48]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices were affected by factors such as coal prices and expected reserve sales [50]. - **Strategy**: A medium - term bullish view is held, but short - term observation is recommended [54]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil and refined oil contract prices changed, and inventory data were provided [55]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long - positions should be stopped, and observation is recommended [56]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices changed, and base and price difference data were provided [57]. - **Strategy**: Methanol fundamentals have improved marginally, and short - term long - positions can be considered on dips [58]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices changed, and base and price difference data were provided [59]. - **Strategy**: Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - driving situation, and long - positions can be considered on dips [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [61]. - **Strategy**: Styrene prices may stop falling during the seasonal peak season [62]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices changed, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [63]. - **Strategy**: PVC has a poor supply - demand situation, and short - term short - positions can be considered on rallies [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [65]. - **Strategy**: Ethylene glycol may accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and short - positions can be considered on rallies [66]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [67]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of PTA is recommended [69]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [70]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of p - Xylene is recommended [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [72]. - **Strategy**: PE prices may oscillate upward [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [74]. - **Strategy**: PP has a supply - demand imbalance, and short - term no prominent contradictions [76]. Agricultural Products Live Hogs - **Market News**: Hog prices continued to decline, and supply and demand were expected to be stable [78]. - **Strategy**: Short - term hog prices may remain weak, and short - positions on near - month contracts are recommended [79]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices were stable or declined, and supply and demand were in a wait - and - see state [80]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of eggs is recommended, and long - positions on far - month contracts can be considered after price declines [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: Soybean meal prices were stable, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [82]. - **Strategy**: Soybean meal is in a weakly oscillating state, and short - term declines may occur [83]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Palm oil export and production data in Malaysia were provided, and domestic oils and fats oscillated [84]. - **Strategy**: Oils and fats may oscillate strongly in the medium - term, and buying on dips can be considered [85]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar futures prices oscillated, and spot prices and production forecasts were provided [86]. - **Strategy**: Sugar prices are expected to decline in the long - term, and short - term observation is recommended [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton futures prices declined, and spot prices and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [88][89]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are affected by multiple factors, and short - term observation is recommended [90].

Macro Overview - The macro environment was relatively calm last week, with both gold and copper showing upward trends. The ongoing debate around interest rate cuts remains the main theme, with gold continuing to attract market allocation. The rise in copper prices was primarily driven by fundamental factors, particularly the announcement from Freeport regarding the investigation results and production updates from the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which significantly exceeded market expectations [2][6]. Precious Metals - Last week, COMEX gold rose by 1.89%, and silver increased by 6.92%. The SHFE gold contract rose by 3.07%, while the SHFE silver contract increased by 6.63%. In the industrial metals sector, COMEX copper and SHFE copper saw changes of +2.89% and +3.28%, respectively [4][24]. - The silver market experienced a significant rise due to the ongoing increase in borrowing costs, leading to potential short squeezes in the spot market. Under the current interest rate cut expectations, precious metal prices are likely to remain strong, although there are risks associated with rapid price increases and potential adverse factors [8][52]. Copper Market Analysis - The copper price fluctuations were mainly driven by supply-side events, particularly the production updates from the Grasberg mine, which indicated that there would be almost no production in Q4 this year, affecting prices significantly. The ongoing accidents in copper mines have increased supply disruptions, leading to a downward adjustment in copper concentrate growth expectations, which may elevate copper prices in the long term [6][10]. - The SHFE copper price experienced a pullback after an initial surge, influenced by domestic copper smelting capacity measures announced at a copper industry conference. Despite the price increase, downstream demand has not kept pace, leading to a price retreat. The overall demand in Q4 is expected to remain neutral, with potential support for prices if they decline significantly [10][11]. Inventory and Holdings - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 483,000 ounces to 39.95 million ounces, while COMEX silver inventory rose by about 6.3 million ounces to approximately 53.034 million ounces. SHFE gold inventory increased by about 8.4 tons, while SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.2 tons [40][45]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 11.2 tons to 1,006 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 157 tons to 15,362 tons. The non-commercial total holdings for COMEX gold were 399,000 contracts, with a slight increase in both long and short positions [45][46].