Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention any investment ratings for the industry. Core Views - **Copper**: Macro factors continue to drive up copper prices, but caution is needed for a potential high - level pullback before the New Year's Day holiday. Last week, copper prices accelerated their upward movement, with SHFE copper reaching the 100,000 - yuan mark and open interest rising to 660,000 contracts. The market liquidity recovered after the yen interest rate hike in late December, pushing up copper prices. However, the pressure on the mid - and downstream industries has been increasing, with the basis and calendar spreads weakening and the social inventory of electrolytic copper rising significantly. The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long - term contracts in 2026 is set at $0/ton, much lower than in 2025, which may lead to production cuts and intensify supply shortage expectations. The short - term upward momentum is strong, but the price is at a historical high, and there is a divergence between the domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) and the strong macro expectations. Also, with the approaching New Year's Day holiday, there may be an increasing willingness to close positions, so a high - level pullback risk should be watched out for [5][60]. - **Aluminum**: Macro factors are positive, while industrial factors are negative, leading to high - level oscillations in aluminum prices. Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The macro environment improved after the yen interest rate hike. On the industrial side, as aluminum prices rose, downstream hesitation increased, and the spot discount remained weak. The expectation of aluminum replacing copper in the home appliance sector provides support for long - term demand. The short - term rise in aluminum prices is largely driven by the strong performance of copper prices, and its own upward momentum is weak, with significant divergence between bulls and bears. Attention can be continuously paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6][60]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - After the yen interest rate hike, market liquidity recovered, the US dollar index showed a weak performance, and copper prices trended upward [10]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices accelerated their upward movement, with SHFE copper reaching the 100,000 - yuan mark, and open interest rising to 660,000 contracts, indicating high short - term capital attention and a significant increase in volatility [5][16]. 2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to recover from a low level and was approaching the same - period level of previous years. On December 26, Mysteel's port inventory of copper ore was 670,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 10,000 tons. The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long - term contracts in 2026 is set at $0/ton and $0 cents/pound, which lays a price support foundation for 2026 from the industrial perspective [25]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 25, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 202,200 tons, a weekly increase of 27,700 tons. On December 26, the combined inventory of COMEX and LME was 640,000 tons, a weekly increase of 17,400 tons. The continuous rise in copper prices has significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventory [27]. 2.4 Downstream Primary Processing - SMM expects the total output of the copper rod industry in December to decrease by 45,000 tons month - on - month to 1 million tons. In terms of operating rates, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 65.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.53 percentage points. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 19.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.73 percentage points [29]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and the volatility increased. The macro environment improved after the yen interest rate hike [6]. 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On December 26, the port inventory of bauxite was 2.60207 billion tons, a decrease of 5.93 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 821.07 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina prices rebounded significantly, driven by the macro improvement, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum plants shrank in the short term as the electrolytic aluminum price oscillated at a high level [45][46]. 3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction - On December 25, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 612,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous week. The overseas inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 527,500 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the previous week. The high - level operation of aluminum prices has suppressed downstream consumption, and the domestic inventory has increased significantly [50]. 3.4 Downstream Primary Processing - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased significantly, reflecting the suppression of downstream demand by high aluminum prices. On December 25, the inventory of aluminum rods was 96,000 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous week, indicating a decrease in downstream operating rates and the start of inventory consumption [55][57]. 4. Conclusion - **Copper**: The short - term upward momentum is strong, but the price is at a historical high, and there is a divergence between the domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) and the strong macro expectations. With the approaching New Year's Day holiday, a high - level pullback risk should be watched out for [5][60]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term rise is largely driven by the strong performance of copper prices, and its own upward momentum is weak, with significant divergence between bulls and bears. Attention can be continuously paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6][60].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a positive trend, with Shanghai aluminum futures experiencing fluctuations, reaching a high of 22,980.00 yuan/ton and a low of 22,110.00 yuan/ton, with an increase of approximately 1.99% [1] - The Yunnan Provincial Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized strengthening resource-based industries, particularly in aluminum, silicon, phosphorus, and precious metals, to enhance their position in the national supply chain [2] - Major aluminum producers have raised the premium for primary aluminum sold to Japanese buyers for January to March from an initial range of $190-203 per ton to $210-225 per ton [2] Group 2 - Analysts from Zhengxin Futures suggest that macroeconomic expectations and supply-side stories in the overseas non-ferrous sector will support a strong market, with aluminum prices expected to maintain a strong trend [3] - Dongzheng Futures predicts a tight balance in global aluminum supply and demand, recommending a strategy of buying on dips, with the price range for domestic electrolytic aluminum expected to be between 21,000 and 24,000 yuan/ton in 2026 [3] - Environmental regulations in regions like Luoyang and Gongyi have led to the suspension of operations in some local aluminum processing companies, resulting in a decline in spot demand, which is expected to gradually recover after the New Year holiday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **Aluminum**: The domestic operating capacity is at a high level while overseas construction projects are progressing slowly; demand is growing steadily, and the tight supply - demand situation supports prices. Industry profits are high, and low inventory is a key price support. High aluminum prices suppress downstream purchases, and concerns about macro - liquidity tightening lead to a high - level oscillation of the market [3]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and new capacity is being gradually put into production. Demand growth has slowed down, weakening market sentiment. Current inventory is accumulating, but policies encouraging industrial mergers and reorganizations have sparked "capacity clearance" policy expectations, and the futures price has rebounded sharply. A short - term bottom for alumina may be gradually emerging [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream Supply - **Bauxite**: The report shows the national and provincial monthly production seasonality, monthly import volume seasonality, and port inventory seasonality of Chinese bauxite [20][21]. - **Alumina**: It presents the monthly production seasonality of Chinese alumina, the monthly production of major production areas, national and provincial weekly operating rates, monthly import volume seasonality, and import profit and loss [23][25][29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The report includes the monthly and weekly production seasonality of Chinese electrolytic aluminum, monthly net import seasonality, and spot import profit and loss, as well as the monthly production seasonality of global electrolytic aluminum [32][33][34]. 3.2 Downstream Demand - **Product Output**: It details the weekly and monthly output seasonality of various aluminum products such as aluminum ingots, aluminum rods, aluminum profiles, aluminum plates, aluminum foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots [36][39]. - **Operating Rates**: The report shows the weekly and monthly operating rates seasonality of different aluminum product industries, including aluminum profiles, aluminum strips, aluminum foils, aluminum cables, and primary aluminum alloys [40][49]. - **Exports**: It provides the monthly export volume seasonality of unforged aluminum and aluminum products and the export profit of Chinese aluminum products [51][53]. - **Related Industries**: It presents the data related to industries consuming aluminum, such as the cumulative year - on - year of housing start - up and completion areas and fixed - asset investment, the monthly output seasonality of automobiles and new - energy vehicles, the monthly investment completion amount of power grid projects, and the monthly new - installed capacity of photovoltaics [57][59][62]. 3.3 Inventory - **Bauxite**: It shows the monthly inventory seasonality of Chinese bauxite in the whole country and in specific provinces like Guangxi, Henan, and Shanxi [66][67]. - **Alumina**: It includes the factory - level inventory seasonality of alumina enterprises, the number of inventory days, and the SHFE alumina warehouse receipt total seasonality [68][69]. - **Aluminum**: It shows the LME aluminum inventory seasonality, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt quantity seasonality, Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory seasonality, inventory days seasonality, aluminum rod and aluminum ingot + aluminum rod spot inventory seasonality [69][70][72]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Raw Materials**: It presents the prices of domestic and imported bauxite, 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda, pre - baked anodes, power coal, Dutch natural gas TTF, and European electricity prices [74][75][76]. - **Production**: It shows the cost of alumina and the cost - profit situation of Chinese electrolytic aluminum [74][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - The market sentiment is overly high recently, and there is a risk of a decline. Attention should be paid to the macro - situation and the supply - side recovery [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The strong cost and weak demand make the price of ADC12 have limited upward and downward space. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20800 - 21800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Industry - For alumina, the policy is more sentiment - driven and difficult to reverse the supply - demand fundamentals in the short term. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract reference range of 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, the market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. The price is expected to remain in a high - level wide - range fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc Industry - The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The support comes from the tight domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc ingot inventory, while the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores. Attention should be paid to the import profit and loss, TC inflection point, and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract focusing on the 22850 - 22950 support [7]. Copper Industry - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but the short - term price is over - estimated to some extent. In a market with high speculative sentiment and risk preference, the price may remain strong in the short term. It is not advisable to short on the left side before the bullish logic reverses and the price shows a peak signal. Attention should be paid to overseas inventory changes and CL premium changes [10]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The short - term supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. The destocking has slowed down. The price may remain strong in the short term under the support of capital sentiment, but attention should be paid to the risk of regulatory tightening and profit - taking adjustment of funds [14]. Nickel Industry - The expectation of increased nickel ore control in Indonesia drives the recent sentiment to strengthen, but the short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 123000 - 130000 [15]. Stainless Steel Industry - The supply pressure has eased slightly, and the cost support of ore and ferronickel has strengthened, but the demand boost in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term market sentiment is boosted, but the supply - demand game continues. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13200 [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both stable with a downward trend, and the expectation of production reduction is further heating up. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction intensity [20]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon price remains in a high - level shock. In January, under the background of weak demand, there is further production reduction pressure if supply - demand balance is to be achieved. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the production reduction situation and price adjustment acceptance [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.60%, SMM 1 tin premium increased by 900.00%, etc. The import profit and loss decreased by 13.49%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed significantly [2]. Fundamental Data - In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.81%, etc. SHEF inventory increased by 4.72%, and social inventory increased by 2.02% [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 0.23%, and the refined - scrap price difference of some varieties changed. The monthly spread of some contracts also changed [4]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 6.93%, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 2.06% [4]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.18%, and the prices of alumina in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 44.9 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%, etc. The operating rate of some aluminum products decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 6.75% [5]. Zinc Industry Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.52%, the import profit and loss decreased by 177.63 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, refined zinc exports increased by 402.59%. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased, and the seven - place social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 6.14% [7]. Copper Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 3.14%, the refined - scrap price difference increased by 6.95%, the import profit and loss decreased by 129.00 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [10]. Fundamental Data - In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and imports decreased by 3.90%. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased by 16.77% [10]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 6.67%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [14]. Fundamental Data - In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, demand increased by 5.11%, imports decreased by 7.64%, and exports increased by 208.75%. The total inventory decreased by 23.36% [14]. Nickel Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.81%, the futures import profit and loss increased by 83.57%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [15]. Fundamental Data - In November, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.82%, and social inventory decreased by 1.43% [15]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 0.72%, and exports increased by 13.18%. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.43% [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [20]. Fundamental Data - In November, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, the organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, and the export volume increased by 21.78%. The Xinjiang inventory increased by 2.33%, and the social inventory increased by 0.36% [20]. Polysilicon Industry Price and Spread - The average price of N - type re - feed increased by 0.10%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed significantly [21]. Fundamental Data - In November, polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%, imports decreased by 27.05%, and exports increased by 108.68%. The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.88% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Overseas inventory is structurally imbalanced, and terminal demand is significantly suppressed. The copper price continued to rise yesterday, with short - term price fluctuations intensifying. - The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory structural imbalances and Fed's actions. Although the 2026 long - term TC is 0, smelters can maintain cash - flow profit if by - product profits are high enough. - SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to rise in December, with sufficient spot supply. High prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to a large discount in spot this week, inventory accumulation, and weakened downstream开工率 and order release. - The upward drivers are further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; the downward driver is weak demand. The short - term price is volatile, and the main contract should focus on the 95,500 support level [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures maintained a low - level oscillation. The fundamental pattern of oversupply has not improved. The supply is rigid, and the whole - industry chain inventory has reached a new high, forming a self - strengthening mechanism. The cost support level is moving down. Alumina prices are expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. - Electrolytic aluminum futures maintained a high - level oscillation. The macro environment is favorable, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market showed a strong - oscillation trend. The core contradiction is the game between strong cost support and weakening demand. - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the procurement cost is high. The high aluminum price has suppressed the purchasing willingness of downstream die - casting enterprises. - The social inventory has been decreasing slightly for several weeks. The ADC12 price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and the terminal demand is weak. The zinc price is oscillating weakly. - Domestic zinc ore production has decreased in November, and the import window has opened. The smelter has reduced production due to profit pressure. - The downstream processing industry's开工率 is stable. The social inventory has been decreasing, but the overall demand is general at the end of the year. The LME inventory has increased significantly, and the squeeze - out risk has eased. The main contract should focus on the 22,850 - 22,950 support level [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, and the export volume of Indonesia has increased significantly in November. - The tin - soldering enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more restricted. - The supply in Myanmar and Indonesia shows improvement signs. The previous long positions should be gradually closed, and subsequent macro and supply - side recovery should be monitored [11]. Nickel - The nickel futures price fell slightly. The market is trading around the expectation of tightened nickel ore supply. - The domestic spot nickel price has decreased, and the spot trading is average. The supply of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel is still tight. - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has decreased, and the Indonesian ore production target in 2026 has been significantly reduced. The price of nickel iron has strong bottom support. - The terminal demand is weak, and the overseas inventory accumulation has slowed down, while the domestic social inventory pressure has increased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate and recover, with the main contract reference range of 123,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures price oscillated narrowly. The spot market's inquiry atmosphere has cooled, and the trading volume is average. - The Fed has cut interest rates, and the domestic central bank has injected liquidity. The market expects tightened nickel ore supply. - The supply is at a relatively high level, but some enterprises may conduct annual maintenance at the end of the year. The demand is in the off - season, and the social inventory is decreasing but still at a high level. - The short - term market sentiment has improved, but the supply - demand game continues. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - [missing in the report] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated widely. The main contract LC2605 rose 0.44% to 123,520. - The recent news is abundant. Some production lines of Hunan Yueneng will be under maintenance in January, and Wanrun New Energy will reduce production for maintenance. - The current fundamentals show both supply and demand growth. The production is expected to increase in December, and the demand maintains certain resilience. The inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term price is supported by the tight - balance fundamentals, but there is limited new driving force [16]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price oscillated and recovered after a low opening. - The supply and demand are both decreasing steadily. The expectation of industrial silicon production reduction is rising. Multiple enterprises plan to shut down furnaces for maintenance. - The demand from polysilicon is expected to decrease significantly in January. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price rose significantly. - The exchange has introduced cooling measures. Upstream enterprises hope to drive up the whole - industry chain price, and downstream enterprises have raised their quotes, but profits are still under pressure. - The demand in the first quarter has no bright spots. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the futures price is still at a large premium to the spot. Attention should be paid to production - reduction implementation and price - fall pressure [19]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 94,760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (0.07%); the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was - 330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 21,980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton ( - 0.23%); the SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 170 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 was at 21,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 23,080 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton ( - 0.77%); the premium was 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin was at 332,750 yuan/ton, down 3,600 yuan/ton ( - 1.07%); the LME 0 - 3 premium was 130 US dollars/ton, up 65 US dollars/ton (100%) [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 127,400 yuan/ton, down 2,800 yuan/ton ( - 2.15%); the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 7,250 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton (7.41%) [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) was at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton ( - 0.38%) [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan/ton (3.35%) [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Huale Tongyang SI5530 industrial silicon was at 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [18]. - **Polysilicon**: N - type polycrystalline silicon (average price) was at 52,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In November, electrolytic copper production was 110.31 million tons, up 1.15 million tons (1.05%); imports were 27.11 million tons, down 1.10 million tons ( - 3.90%) [1]. - **Aluminum**: In November, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, down 34.6 million tons ( - 4.44%); domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 363.66 million tons, down 10.6 million tons ( - 2.82%) [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, up 3.7 million tons (5.74%); the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 30.27 million tons, up 1.7 million tons (5.84%) [5]. - **Zinc**: In November, refined zinc production was 59.52 million tons, down 2.20 million tons ( - 3.56%); imports were 1.82 million tons, down 0.06 million tons ( - 3.22%) [9]. - **Tin**: In October, tin ore imports were 11,632 tons, up 2,918 tons (33.49%); SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, up 5,580 tons (53.09%) [11]. - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production in [month not clear] was 33,342 tons, down 3,453 tons ( - 9.38%); imports were 9,741 tons, down 18,626 tons ( - 65.66%) [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) in [month not clear] was 178.70 million tons, down 1.30 million tons ( - 0.72%); Indonesia's was 42.35 million tons, up 0.15 million tons (0.36%) [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, lithium carbonate production was 95,350 tons, up 3,090 tons (3.35%); demand was 133,451 tons, up 6,490 tons (5.11%) [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: National industrial silicon production in [month not clear] was 40.17 million tons, down 5.05 million tons ( - 11.17%); Xinjiang's was 23.76 million tons, up 0.20 million tons (0.83%) [18]. - **Polysilicon**: In [month not clear], polysilicon production was 11.46 million tons, down 1.94 million tons ( - 14.48%); imports were 0.11 million tons, down 0.04 million tons ( - 27.05%) [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The overall direction of monetary easing and ongoing contradictions in the mining end continue to support non - ferrous metals. However, due to factors such as capital outflows during Christmas, the sector experiences a round of strong consolidation. There are differences in fundamentals among non - ferrous metals, leading to a differentiation in strength. It is recommended to focus on opportunities where macro and micro factors resonate [12]. - Copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving central value in the future, driven by its financial attributes, valuation repair, and the global inventory structural contradiction. It is advisable to gradually go long on Shanghai Copper on dips [3]. - Zinc is in an oscillatory state. As long as the lower support level holds, one can go long on dips [4]. - For the aluminum industry chain, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or long - biased approach. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is suggested [5]. - Tin is recommended to be on the sidelines, and attention should be paid to the trends of other non - ferrous metals and policy regulations [6]. - Lead shows a short - term upward trend, and one can go long on dips [8]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a short - term bullish state, but attention should be paid to macro - liquidity changes and the implementation of Indonesian policies [9]. Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. Monetary easing continues, and contradictions in the mining end support the sector. Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market weakens the US dollar, which is beneficial for non - ferrous metals. However, the appreciation of the RMB may lead to relatively stronger performance in the external market. During Christmas, capital outflows increase volatility, and non - ferrous metals experience a round of strong consolidation. The US economic data shows mixed performance, and China's economic data such as power consumption is positive. The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted but moved away from lows, with internal differentiation in strength. Copper, with its tight supply - demand situation, drives the sector upward. As weak - performing varieties make up for losses, the sector may experience profit - taking and increased volatility. Attention should be paid to spot - market feedback [12]. - **This Week's Focus**: This week, the US will release a large amount of economic data, with the focus on the third - quarter real GDP on December 23. China will release the November industrial enterprise profit data on December 27. The Christmas holiday leads to market closures in the UK and the US [13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy** - **Copper**: Driven by factors such as the high - than - expected US GDP and inflation, and the global inventory structural contradiction, copper prices are expected to rise. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying near - month slightly out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Zinc**: With a relatively warm macro environment and a slowdown in the decline of processing fees, zinc is in an oscillatory recovery state. It can be bought on dips as long as the support level holds, with an upper pressure range of 23,500 - 23,600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips, with an upper pressure range of 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,300 yuan/ton. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is recommended, with an upper pressure range of 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. For recycled aluminum alloy, a wait - and - see or long - biased approach is suggested, with an upper pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: Affected by sector adjustment, policy利空, and nickel market resonance, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 350,000 - 355,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - **Lead**: With a weak US dollar and cost support, lead prices are rising. It is advisable to go long in the short term, with a lower support range of 16,700 - 16,800 yuan/ton and an upper pressure range of 17,200 - 17,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the expected reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and potential policy changes, nickel and stainless steel are short - term bullish. For nickel, the upper pressure range is 128,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 123,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the upper pressure range is 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton [9]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [17]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report presents the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, lead, copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum alloy, aluminum, industrial silicon, gold, zinc, alumina, tin, and nickel [19]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [20][22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides relevant charts for each non - ferrous metal in the industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [25][28][30] Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the Shanghai - London ratio changes, basis spreads, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [56][57][59] Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals options, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and other aspects of copper, zinc, and aluminum [74][76][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Short - term fundamentals remain strong. Tin prices are expected to stay strong within the year. Maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold long positions, and consider buying on dips. Monitor subsequent macro and supply - side changes [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The market is in a state of strong cost and weak demand. ADC12 prices have limited upside and downside space. The price is expected to continue to oscillate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Focus on changes in scrap aluminum supply, regional environmental policies, and downstream orders [4]. Polysilicon Industry - Polysilicon prices remain in high - level oscillation, and futures prices are still at a significant premium to the spot market. Pay attention to the reduction in production or price decline pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for now, and focus on the subsequent production cuts and price adjustment acceptance. Remind investors to manage their positions [5]. Industrial Silicon Industry - Some industrial silicon spot prices rose slightly. Futures prices oscillated and declined. Supply and demand both decreased moderately, and the expectation of industrial silicon production cuts further increased. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in December, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. If production drops significantly, it may break through 10,000 yuan/ton; otherwise, it will fall [6]. Zinc Industry - TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and zinc prices are oscillating. Domestic zinc concentrate production is in the off - season, while overseas zinc ore imports have increased. Refining production is limited due to profit pressure. Downstream demand is stable, and domestic spot zinc ingots maintain a premium with continuous inventory depletion. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the squeeze risk has eased. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 22,850 - 22,950 [8]. Copper Industry - Against the background of the overseas inventory structural imbalance, copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; the downward drivers are the weak demand feedback. In the long - term, the bottom center of copper prices may continue to rise, and the main contract should pay attention to the support at 92,500 - 95,000 [12]. Alumina and Aluminum Industry - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate at a low level around the cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Pay attention to environmental protection policies and corporate production cuts. Aluminum prices lack a one - way driver and are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the SHFE aluminum main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton. Focus on macro - expectations and domestic inventory changes [15]. Nickel Industry - The nickel market sentiment has improved due to low valuations and mine - end news, but the short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose. The price upside is restricted. The short - term is expected to continue oscillating and repairing, but the driving force is limited. Pay attention to the possibility of a callback after the news is digested, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 124,000 [16]. Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless - steel market sentiment has improved, but the supply - demand game continues. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 13,000. Pay attention to nickel - mine news and steel - mill production - cut implementation [18]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The lithium carbonate market has a short - term wide - range oscillation. The price may continue to test the high and then retreat and adjust. Pay attention to policies and news [19]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices rose by 1.04%, and LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 82.26%. The import loss increased by 4.56% [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Some spreads changed significantly, such as the spread between 2602 - 2603 increasing by 52.78% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports, SMM refined tin production, and the average SMM refined tin operating rate increased significantly, while refined tin imports and exports decreased [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF weekly inventory and social inventory increased, while SHEF daily warehouse receipts and LME daily inventory decreased [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions rose by 0.46%, and the scrap - to - refined price difference in some areas increased [4]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots increased, while the import and export of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased. The operating rate of recycled and primary aluminum alloys increased [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.38% [4]. Polysilicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Some N - type silicon product prices rose, and the N - type material basis increased by 17.85% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price decreased by 2.32%, and most inter - month spreads changed significantly [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly silicon wafer and polysilicon production decreased, polysilicon imports decreased, and exports increased [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory remained unchanged, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 7.73% [5]. Industrial Silicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: Some industrial silicon spot prices rose slightly, and the basis increased [6]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Some spreads changed significantly, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 100% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: National and regional industrial silicon production decreased, while the production of organic silicon DMC and recycled aluminum alloy increased. The national operating rate decreased [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang and Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased, while social inventory decreased by 1.43% [6]. Zinc Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot prices decreased slightly, and the import loss increased [8]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production and imports decreased, and exports increased significantly. The operating rates of downstream processing industries were basically stable [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory and LME inventory decreased [8]. Copper Industry - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper prices rose by 1.43%, and the import loss increased [12]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: All inter - month spreads decreased [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased, and imports decreased. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production decreased, while that of recycled copper rod production increased [12]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social, bonded, and SHFE inventories increased, while LME inventory decreased [12]. Alumina and Aluminum Industry Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: Alumina prices in different regions decreased slightly, and the import profit decreased [15]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the AL 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased, and the operating rate increased slightly [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: Alumina factory - warehouse and port inventories changed, with the port inventory decreasing by 7.69% [15]. Aluminum - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum prices rose by 0.50%, and the import loss increased [15]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the AL 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased, imports decreased, and exports increased [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod social inventories increased [15]. Nickel Industry - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel prices rose by 1.42%, and the import profit increased [16]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread increasing by 40 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: In November, China's refined nickel production and imports decreased. SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [16]. Stainless Steel Industry - **Prices and Basis**: 304/2B stainless - steel coil prices in some regions rose slightly, and the spot - futures price difference decreased [18]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the 2603 - 2604 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production decreased slightly, imports decreased, and exports increased. The 300 - series social inventory decreased [18]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Prices and Basis**: SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices rose, and the lithium spodumene concentrate price also increased [19]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: All inter - month spreads decreased [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, imports decreased, and exports increased. The total inventory decreased significantly [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The alumina market is expected to be in a stage of excess supply and stable demand. Traders are advised to conduct light - position oscillating trades, controlling the rhythm and trading risks[2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market is likely to be in a state of tight supply - demand balance with a slight reduction in industrial inventory and long - term positive expectations. Traders are recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades on dips, controlling the rhythm and trading risks[2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may face a situation of slightly decreasing supply and slowing demand, with high - level industrial inventory and slight destocking. Traders are suggested to conduct light - position oscillating trades, controlling the rhythm and trading risks[2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 22,220 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the main contract position was 314,299 lots, down 7,940 lots; the LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,945 US dollars/ton, up 29 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 519,600 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.54, down 0.06[2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,498 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 111 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the main contract position was 151,207 lots, down 11,147 lots; the inventory of alumina was 197,566 tons, down 61,270 tons[2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 21,290 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 95 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the main contract position was 17,184 lots, down 32 lots[2]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 21,930 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 21,840 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan[2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,655 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan[2]. Upstream Situation - The production of alumina was 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons[2]. - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and fragments was 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; the export quantity was 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons; the export quantity of alumina was 17.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons; the import quantity was 23.24 million tons, up 4.31 million tons[2]. Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,524.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the production of electrolytic aluminum was 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the export quantity of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 57.00 million tons, up 7.00 million tons[2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons; the export quantity of aluminum alloy was 3.06 million tons, down 0.03 million tons[2]. Downstream and Application - The production of automobiles was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24.00 million vehicles; the National Housing Prosperity Index was 91.90, down 0.52[2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 12.82%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.38%, down 0.07%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money IV was 13.48%, up 0.0147; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.60, down 0.0142[2]. Industry News - The central economic work conference listed "insisting on innovation - driven and accelerating the cultivation and growth of new kinetic energy" as one of the key tasks for next year's economic work, and relevant departments are actively deploying the work focus for 2026[2]. - The central economic work conference proposed to "promote the construction of a unified national market in depth and rectify 'involution - style' competition", and for the first time proposed to formulate regulations on the construction of a unified national market. The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a compliance guide on price behavior in the automotive industry[2]. - In the context of the overall real - estate sales market not yet turning positive, some cities showed a stable and positive trend. From January to November this year, the total transaction volume of new and second - hand houses in seven cities such as Shenzhen and Nanchang increased by more than 5% year - on - year[2]. - Different Fed officials had different views on interest - rate cuts. Some advocated cutting rates, some thought it was due to technical factors and were not in a hurry to adjust monetary policy, and some were worried about high inflation and preferred to keep interest rates stable until next spring[2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global economy in 2026 is expected to grow at around 3%, with loose global liquidity benefiting low and middle - income countries. The K - shaped economy in the US deepens, with AI investment as a new growth driver, while China's economic transformation shows initial results, and Europe's economy is under pressure due to the Russia - Ukraine war and trade tariffs [1][33] - For the copper market, supply is limited due to shortages in copper concentrates and refined production, and demand shows a mix of old and new trends. The US tariff expectation distorts global demand, and the price is expected to range between $11,000 - $12,500 [1][68] - In the aluminum market, China is approaching its electrolytic aluminum production capacity ceiling, and overseas production is restricted by power bottlenecks. Demand remains stable, and the supply gap is expected to widen, with the price expected to range between $2,700 - $3,200 [2][79] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Situation US Economy - In 2025, AI investment contributed to 1/3 of GDP growth, driving the stock market up. In 2026, AI investment will continue, but the traditional manufacturing industry will face more pressure, with the K - shaped economic structure deepening. Fiscal and monetary policies are both loose, and GDP growth is expected to increase slightly. The biggest uncertainty is the possible bursting of the AI investment bubble [5] - Consumer confidence has declined to a 20 - year low, with consumption growth concentrated in high - income groups. The employment market is expected to slow down but remain generally stable, with the unemployment rate slightly increasing. Manufacturing is in a weak recovery, and the "Big Beautiful Act" will increase the deficit and government spending. The market expects two more interest rate cuts in 2026 [9][12][16] Chinese Economy - In 2025, China implemented an active fiscal policy, and economic transformation achieved initial results. GDP growth is expected to reach around 5%. In 2026, the fiscal support will not be less than in 2025, and the focus will be on promoting domestic demand. GDP growth is expected to slow down slightly to 4.6% [17][20] - Real estate investment continues to shrink, and the contribution of the real estate industry to GDP has dropped from 30% to 10%. Industrial investment has paused after high - speed growth. Central fiscal investment will support fixed - asset investment. Industrial and export growth is expected to remain high, and measures to promote domestic demand will be strengthened [20][25][27] European Economy - In 2025, the Russia - Ukraine war and Trump's tariff war affected the European economy. The European Central Bank cut interest rates four times, and Germany launched a 500 - billion - euro defense plan. GDP growth is expected to be 1.3% in 2025 and slow down slightly in 2026 [29][32][35] - The biggest uncertainty in 2026 is the Russia - Ukraine war. If post - war relations are handled well, the economy may grow strongly. Global liquidity is expected to be loose, which will ease the debt pressure of low and middle - income countries [33] 3.2 New Demand Growth Points for Copper and Aluminum New Energy and AI Investment - The new energy industry has become a major growth source for non - ferrous metal demand. By 2030, the consumption of new energy in copper and aluminum demand is expected to reach over 30% and 25% respectively [36] - The growth of new energy vehicles will slow down. In 2026, the global production of new energy vehicles is expected to be 23 - 25 million, with a copper demand increase of 200,000 tons and an aluminum demand increase of 600,000 tons [36][37] - Photovoltaic growth will slow down. In 2026, the global new installed capacity is expected to be 610 - 650GW. The copper and aluminum demand growth will be less than 100,000 tons and 200,000 - 300,000 tons respectively [37][38] - Energy storage has become a new growth point. In 2026, the global energy storage installed capacity is expected to reach 377GWh, with a copper and aluminum demand increase of 65,000 tons and 200,000 tons respectively [39] - Data center construction is also a new growth point. The global data center copper demand is expected to increase by 100,000 tons annually, and China's data center copper demand may approach 1 million tons by 2030 [39] - The power sector's demand for grid upgrade and transformation is increasing. In 2026, China's main grid investment is expected to grow by about 10%, and the US is expected to invest over $1.1 trillion in power from 2025 - 2030 [40][41][43] Traditional Demand - The demand from the construction industry for copper and aluminum is expected to decline by about 15%. The demand for home appliances will slow down, with a production growth rate of about 2% in 2026. The demand from medium - income countries is growing [44][45][50] 3.3 Copper Market Supply Constraints - In 2026, copper concentrate production will increase, but refined copper production growth will slow down significantly. Long - term supply is limited due to factors such as the lack of new large mines and the aging of existing mines [51][54][55] - In 2026, new copper mine projects are expected to increase production by 570,000 tons. Chinese refined copper production growth will be limited by the shortage of concentrates, and overseas refineries may reduce production. The supply of scrap copper is expected to be tight [54][57][59][60] Demand and Price Outlook - In 2026, global refined copper supply is expected to have a shortage of 150,000 tons, and the shortage may expand to 300,000 tons in 2027. The US tariff expectation distorts global demand, making the US a high - price area for copper and intensifying the supply gap in non - US regions [61][63][67] - The copper price in 2026 is expected to range between $11,000 - $12,500, and the upward price elasticity depends on tariff expectations and speculative funds [68] 3.4 Aluminum Market Supply Situation - The supply of bauxite and alumina is in a high - growth period, and over - supply will intensify in 2026. The price of alumina will fluctuate within a narrow range around the cash cost of high - cost refineries [69][70][74] - China is approaching the 45.5 - million - ton capacity ceiling for electrolytic aluminum. In 2026, domestic production is expected to increase by 800,000 tons, and growth will basically stagnate after 2027. Overseas, new projects are mainly in Indonesia, but power bottlenecks are significant, and production growth has high uncertainty [74][76][77] Demand and Price Outlook - In 2026, global primary aluminum demand growth is expected to be slightly lower than in 2025. In the long term, new energy and emerging country demand will support a 2.7% - 3% compound growth rate [78][79] - The supply is expected to turn into a small shortage in 2026, and the shortage may expand after 2027. The aluminum price is expected to range between $2,700 - $3,200 (or 21,000 - 24,000 yuan) [79]

渤海湾畔，黄河奔流。在滨州高质量发展征途上，科创品质正如强劲的引擎，驱动着这座城市破浪前 行。 在这里，裕航合金攻克铝材精密加工瓶颈，让航空级7055铝合金托举大国重器的飞天梦想；魏桥纺织以 微纳米镶嵌纺技术织就智能衣物，实现"穿着即监测、冷暖皆随心"的功能革命；海忠软管锻造的"深海 蛟龙"，突破2000米深水极限，守护国家能源安全命脉……科技创新带来的不仅是技术突破，更同时激 活"人、产、城"的链式反应。 "十四五"期间，滨州以"走在前、挑大梁"的担当，持续深化产教融合型、实业创新型"双型"城市建设， 搭建一流科创平台、引育一流科创人才、打造一流科创生态，将科技创新这一"关键变量"转化为高质量 发展的"最大增量"，为发展新质生产力注入澎湃动能。 数据见证创新引领：滨州全社会研发投入占GDP比重连续5年位居全省首位；2021年至2024年，全市财 政科技累计支出46.58亿元；高新技术企业达816家，较2020年增长233%；国家科技型中小企业评价入 库2005家，是2021年的2.7倍；67项全球全国"冠军产品"企业中，科技型企业占比高达84%，其中16项产 品登顶全球细分市场。 科创矩阵聚能，全域格局成型 ...