Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices continued to rise, opening at $2952 per ton and currently at $2959 per ton, with an increase of 0.24% [1] - The highest price during the day reached $2965 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $2948 per ton [1] Group 2 - On December 29, LME aluminum futures had an opening price of $2966.0, a highest price of $2997.5, a lowest price of $2939.0, and a closing price of $2949.0, reflecting a decrease of 0.25% [2] - As of December 29, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts of 78,455 tons, an increase of 1,697 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 447,825 tons, with canceled receipts at 71,425 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons [2] - LME aluminum inventory stood at 519,250 tons, also down by 1,800 tons [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.51, with an import loss of 2,221.25 yuan per ton, compared to a loss of 2,502.53 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]

综合来看，当前铝供给端有增量但空间受限。淡季及高铝价致需求趋弱，社库累积抑制铝价上涨幅度。 但市场情绪高涨，沪铝随板块上行。鉴于铝明年供应约束强，预计铝价仍被看好，建议偏多操作，注意 控制仓位。 国内期货：今日沪铝主力月2602合约开盘跳水后震荡拉升；开盘价报22350元/吨，盘中最高22980元/ 吨，最低22110元/吨，昨日结算22385元/吨，尾盘收至22570元/吨，涨185元，涨幅0.83%；沪铝主力月 2602合约全天成交量618612手增加264975手，持仓量289226手增加10415手。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 CCMN现货市场评述：今日长江现货成交价格22470-22510元/吨，涨470元，贴水210-贴水170，跌5元； 广东现货22375-22425元/吨，涨460元，贴水305-贴水255，跌15元；上海地区22460-22500元/吨，涨470 元，贴水220-贴水180，跌5元。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 宏观层面，美联储降息预期持续、油价反弹，12月26日国家发展改革委产业发展司发布《大力推动传统 产业优化提升》 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy market is experiencing price increases driven by macroeconomic factors and strong demand, although future demand uncertainties and high inventory levels may limit further price gains [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy (2602) opened with a brief drop but rebounded, closing at 21,590 yuan, an increase of 195 yuan or 0.91% [1]. - The trading volume for the day was 9,139 lots, a decrease of 3,705 lots, while open interest fell by 1,147 lots to 6,056 [1]. Group 2: Price Movements - On December 29, the average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 23,900 yuan/ton, up by 300 yuan; A380 ingots averaged 23,500 yuan/ton, also up by 300 yuan; ADC12 averaged 22,100 yuan/ton, increasing by 200 yuan; ZL102 averaged 23,300 yuan/ton, up by 300 yuan; and ZLD104 averaged 23,200 yuan/ton, rising by 300 yuan [1]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - The current price surge for ADC12 provides strong support for futures prices, while high scrap aluminum prices and tight supply continue to exert cost support [2]. - As of December 26, aluminum alloy weekly inventory stood at 52,300 tons, slightly down from the previous week but still at historically high levels [2]. - The market is experiencing a positive trading atmosphere, with increased buying activity driven by bullish expectations and pre-holiday stocking needs [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite strong support for aluminum alloy prices, expectations of weakening demand and high inventory levels in the recycled aluminum sector may limit upward price momentum [2].

中金预计，2026年铝供应前低后高，但整体增量仍然有限;而电力瓶颈制约下，印尼远期电解铝项目落 地节奏或低于预期，并维持中金年度展望中的供应预测，2026年全年电解铝净增量约为110万吨，同比 增长1.5%。进入2027年，以上投产项目将释放产量，或带来较大的供应压力。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，本轮有色金属的上升浪潮中，铝价的表现大幅逊于铜价。年初以 来LME铜3个月合约上涨27.2%，而LME铝3个月合约仅上涨11.2%，铜铝比价一路上升至4.4。中金认为 其背后主要有两方面因素，一是宏观顺风下铜具有更强的金融属性，二是美国虹吸带来全球库存失衡的 催化。 但中金认为，从平衡表的角度来看，2026年铝或表现得比铜更紧，且流动性利好带来的金融属性顺风或 已被市场充分计价。中金判断协整关系并不会轻易失效，铝价或将补涨以带动铜铝比向中枢回归。 但展望后续项目，中金认为尽管账面上来看印尼的远期规划产能充足，但电力供应并没有为之做好准 备，这或将阻碍印尼电解铝产能的进一步释放。更长期来看，中金认为电解铝供应约束本质上反映的是 一套高效工业体系的稀缺性，这是一个外生于电解铝行业的因素。单纯的矿山资本开支不足或 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：氧化铝受政策提振拉涨 铝锭小幅累库 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周沪铝震荡走强。宏观上市场预计 2026 年美联储将两次降息， 第一次可能在年中左右，市场猜测美国总统特朗普可能会任命一位鸽派的 美联储主席，这强化对更宽松货币政策的预期。国内受发改委发布的《大 力推动传统产业优化提升》的文章提振，市场普遍预测该政策将推动氧化 铝行业企业加速产业链一体化整合进程，倒逼缺乏铝土矿资源配套、能效 不达标或成本高企的中小产能氧化铝企业退出市场，氧化铝价格快速拉涨 ...

2025 年 12 月 29 日 多头氛围浓烈 铝价偏强 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 核心观点及策略 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面，宏观面美国三季度GDP及消费数据强化了 美国经济韧性，市场对明年1月美联储降息预期升温。 国内发改委文章拉动整体有色板块情绪，多头氛围浓。 基本面供应端国内及印尼新增产能继续释放增量，同时 前期西北发运问题解决，有集中到货供应小增。消费端 受订单疲弱、环保管控、铝价高企等因素，下游开工淡 季继续深入。铝锭库存较上周增加1.7万吨至61.7万吨， 铝棒库存12.45万吨较上周四增加0.15万吨。整体，国 内政策发文加上铜价强势 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the aluminum and alumina markets, focusing on supply-demand dynamics and price forecasts for 2026 [1][2][3][4][6][13]. Key Insights and Arguments Aluminum Market - The 2026 electrolytic aluminum market is expected to have limited production growth, with an overall increase of less than 2% due to capacity constraints and energy disruptions [2][12]. - Domestic production profits for electrolytic aluminum are anticipated to remain strong into 2026, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions [2][12]. - The domestic aluminum water ratio has increased, alleviating inventory pressure, despite a slight accumulation of spot inventory in Q4 [2][7]. Alumina Market - The alumina market is projected to remain oversupplied in 2026, with approximately 15 million tons of new domestic capacity and 7.5 million tons of overseas capacity expected [3][4]. - Prices for alumina are expected to fluctuate around cost levels, making it suitable for strategic allocation during price peaks [4][13]. Lithium Hydroxide Production Costs - The production costs of lithium hydroxide are significantly influenced by upstream resource availability, particularly from Guinea, where supply is expected to increase [5]. - Current market conditions suggest a potential decline in production costs for lithium hydroxide, with spot prices still in a bottoming phase [5]. Macroeconomic Impact on Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals market is closely following trends in precious metals, with expectations of price increases driven by anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [6][9][10]. - Demand from emerging sectors such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and energy storage is becoming a crucial driver for non-ferrous metal consumption [8][12]. Additional Important Points - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum import window remains closed, primarily sourcing from Russian aluminum, with overall inventory pressures being manageable [7]. - The market is currently experiencing a shift in demand from traditional sectors like real estate to emerging sectors, which is expected to reshape the consumption structure of non-ferrous metals in the coming years [8][12]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a gradual increase, which may support non-ferrous metal prices in the next two years, despite current spot data indicating widening discounts [11]. Conclusion - The outlook for both electrolytic aluminum and alumina suggests a complex interplay of supply constraints, macroeconomic factors, and shifting demand patterns, indicating potential investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [2][3][6][13].

铝年报 铝价中枢有望稳步上 价中枢有望稳步上 移 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-12-26 中航期货 目录 01 后市 研判 02 行情回顾 03 宏观 面 04 基本 面 | 几 | 为 | 继 | 国 | 面 | 铝 | 市 | 注 | 境 | 已 | 动、 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 化 | 端 | 点， | 关 | 号 | 环 | 氧 | 求 | 变 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 性 | 信 | 点 | 长 | 需 | 本 | 量。 | 重 | 的 | 动 | 增 | 成 | | | | | | | | | | | ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-26 氧化铝现货成交价格回落 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21980元/吨，较上一交易日变化-50元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-170元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21820元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-330元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录21880元/吨，较上一交易日变化-60元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-265元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-25日沪铝主力合约开于22300元/吨，收于22275元/吨，较上一交易日变化65元/吨，最 高价达22300元/吨，最低价达到22060元/吨。全天交易日成交229349手，全天交易日持仓290474手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-25，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存61.7万吨，较上一期变化1.7万吨，仓单库存76758 吨，较上一交易日变化322吨，LME铝库存521050吨，较上一交易日变化1450吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-25SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2705元/吨，山东价格录得2630元/吨，河南价格录得 2715元/吨，广西 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the foundry aluminum market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract closing at 21,290 yuan, an increase of 140 yuan or 0.66% [1] - The trading volume for the foundry aluminum main contract increased by 259 hands to 4,594 hands, while the open interest decreased by 32 hands to 17,184 hands [1] - The average price of foundry aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) rose by 200 yuan to 23,400 yuan/ton, while other grades such as A380, ADC12, ZL102, and ZLD104 also saw price increases ranging from 100 to 200 yuan [1][2] Group 2 - On the macroeconomic front, the market sentiment is cautious due to the Christmas week and upcoming third-quarter GDP data, but global stock markets and rising oil prices have improved risk sentiment, positively impacting metal demand [1] - The supply and demand for foundry aluminum have both decreased to some extent as the year-end approaches, leading to a stalemate in the market [2] - The cost side remains high, with aluminum alloy prices sustaining at elevated levels, while the smelting sector faces losses, limiting the increase in operating rates and supply capacity [2][3] Group 3 - The overall trading atmosphere in the spot market has improved, supported by orders from the automotive consumer market, leading to increased trading activity [2] - The price performance of foundry aluminum is primarily supported by the cost of scrap aluminum, and it is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation trend in the future [3]