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综合晨报-20250916
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 02:12
Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil has short - term upside risks and medium - term downside pressures, suggesting holding a combination of short positions at high prices and out - of - the - money call options [1] - Precious metals are strong, with market focus on the Fed meeting's rate - cut amplitude and Powell's speech [2] - Copper, aluminum, and related alloys show different trends. For example, copper may see short - term price increases, while aluminum awaits demand feedback in the peak season [3][4][5] - Other metals like zinc, lead, nickel, etc. also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics, such as zinc having potential cross - market arbitrage opportunities [7] Summary by Category - **Crude Oil**: Short - term geopolitical premiums support the oil market, but medium - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, with surpluses of 164万桶/天 in 2025 and 267万桶/天 in 2026 [1] - **Precious Metals**: Market expects three consecutive Fed rate cuts this year, and tonight's US retail sales data is to be watched [2] - **Copper**: Driven by Sino - US consultations and precious metal trends, short - term Shanghai copper may rise to 8.2 - 8.25 million yuan, and long positions can take profits [3] - **Aluminum**: Downstream start - up is seasonally increasing, and short - term resistance at the March high is to be tested [4] - **Other Metals**: Each metal has unique supply - demand situations, such as zinc's tight overseas spot and potential cross - market arbitrage, and lead's supply reduction and resistance at 17,300 yuan/ton [7][8] Group 2: Industrial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Different industrial products like industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, etc. have their own price trends and influencing factors, mainly affected by supply - demand, policies, and cost [12][13] Summary by Category - **Industrial Silicon**: Boosted by coal - related news, but fundamental improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract fluctuates between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and news from this week's industry self - discipline meeting is to be watched [13] - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to be strong in the short term, supported by cost and market sentiment, but demand improvement needs attention [14] - **Iron Ore**: Expected to fluctuate at a high level, affected by supply increase and demand support from high - level molten iron [15] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices are affected by "anti - involution" policies, with high volatility in the short term [15][16] Group 3: Chemical Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Chemical products' prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policies. For example, some products' prices are expected to be stable or fluctuate, while others may face supply or demand pressures [20][21] Summary by Category - **Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has declined, and high - sulfur may be stronger than low - sulfur in the short term due to geopolitical risks [20] - **Asphalt**: Expected to have short - term slowdown in shipments, but demand has room for improvement, and inventory is decreasing [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas market is strong, and the short - term oil price ratio is expected to be strong [22] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical has its own supply - demand and price characteristics, such as urea's supply - demand balance and PVC's high - supply, low - demand situation [23][28] Group 4: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors like supply - demand, policies, and international trade. For example, soybean and related products' prices are affected by the Sino - US trade negotiation [35] Summary by Category - **Soybean and Related Products**: The Sino - US trade negotiation may cause soybean meal to fluctuate, and long - term cautious optimism is maintained for domestic soybean meal [35] - **Vegetable Oils**: Consider buying soybean and palm oils at low prices in the long term, but pay attention to risk control [36] - **Other Agricultural Products**: Each product has its own supply - demand and price trends, such as corn's price differentiation and egg's potential long - term opportunities [39][41] Group 5: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Financial products like stock index futures and treasury bond futures have their own price trends and influencing factors, mainly affected by macro - economic factors and policies [47][48] Summary by Category - **Stock Index Futures**: The market risk preference is expected to continue, and it is recommended to allocate positions to different styles and consider the Hang Seng Technology Index [47] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The price increase is expanding, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]
铝周报:宏观基本面共振,铝价偏强-20250915
Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The revision of the US non - farm payroll data截止March this year by 911,000, the lowest since 2000, indicates weak employment. The US 8 - month PPI was lower than expected and CPI met expectations, leading to high expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. Chinese economic data were mixed: the export growth rate declined in August, the core CPI rose steadily, and the new social financing scale exceeded expectations [3]. - On the fundamental side, the operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum supply side was basically stable, but the proportion of molten aluminum continued to increase, and the subsequent supply of aluminum ingots was expected to decrease. The downstream aluminum processing开工率rebounded last week, but there were differences among sectors. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased to 625,000 tons, 1,000 tons less than last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 132,500 tons, 7,500 tons less than last Thursday [3]. - Overall, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was strengthened, market risk appetite increased, and the aluminum price was supported. The operating capacity on the supply side was stable, and the supply of aluminum ingots might decrease. Consumption improved marginally, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots showed signs of destocking. Both the macro and fundamental aspects were positive, supporting the aluminum price to break through the previous high and remain strong in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum for 3 months increased from 2,602.5 yuan/ton on September 5, 2025, to 2,701 yuan/ton on September 12, 2025, a rise of 98.5 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum continuous - three increased from 20,650 dollars/ton to 21,060 dollars/ton, a rise of 410 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 7.9 to 7.8. The LME spot premium increased from 1.86 dollars/ton to 6.35 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 600 tons to 485,275 tons, and the SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 12,508 tons to 72,469 tons [4]. - The average spot price increased from 20,656 yuan/ton to 20,818 yuan/ton, a rise of 162 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 0 to - 40 yuan/ton. The average price of Southern Storage spot increased from 20,608 yuan/ton to 20,762 yuan/ton, a rise of 154 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from 48 yuan/ton to 56 yuan/ton. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.1 tons to 62.5 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 16,539.76 yuan/ton to 16,383.85 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 4,116.24 yuan/ton to 4,434.15 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - The average weekly price of the spot market was 20,818 yuan/ton, a rise of 162 yuan/ton compared with last week; the average weekly price of the Southern Storage spot was 20,762 yuan/ton, a rise of 154 yuan/ton compared with last week [5]. - In the macro - aspect, the US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000 as of March this year. The US 8 - month PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, and the CPI was in line with expectations. The initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021. China's 8 - month import and export value increased by 3.5% year - on - year. China's 8 - month CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, while the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting [5]. - On the consumption side, the domestic downstream aluminum processing开工率increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots decreased to 625,000 tons, 1,000 tons less than last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 132,500 tons, 7,500 tons less than last Thursday [6]. 3. Market Outlook - The macro - aspect strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, increasing market risk appetite and supporting the aluminum price. However, attention should be paid to whether the Fed's interest rate decision on Thursday morning would lead to the situation of "buy on rumor, sell on news". The fundamental supply side had stable operating capacity, and the supply of aluminum ingots might decrease. Consumption improved marginally, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots showed signs of destocking. Both the macro and fundamental aspects were positive, supporting the aluminum price to break through the previous high and remain strong in the short term [7]. 4. Industry News - In August, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1% and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8%. From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time [8]. - It was rumored that on Tuesday, US President Trump proposed at a meeting in Washington that the EU should impose a 100% tariff on India and China for purchasing Russian energy to pressure Russia to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. 5. Related Charts - The report provided 10 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum month - to - first - continuous spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium of Wumaoyi, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [9][10][15]
铝行业周报:旺季需求继续提升,铝锭库存拐点初现-20250914
Guohai Securities· 2025-09-14 12:04
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for aluminum continues to rise during the peak season, with signs of a turning point in aluminum ingot inventory [1] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may further support aluminum prices [6][11] - The aluminum processing sector is experiencing a recovery in operating rates, indicating a potential increase in demand [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of September 12, 2025, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2701.0 per ton, up $98.5 from the previous week, a 3.8% increase [23] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 21120.0 CNY per ton, up 425.0 CNY from the previous week, a 2.1% increase [23] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 21050.0 CNY per ton, up 370.0 CNY from the previous week, a 1.8% increase [23] 2. Production - In August 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 373.3 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.1 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 5.0 million tons [56] - The production of alumina in August 2025 was 773.8 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 8.8 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 56.5 million tons [56] 3. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.35 CNY for 2024, increasing to 2.89 CNY by 2026 [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.96 CNY for 2024, increasing to 1.27 CNY by 2026 [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.91 CNY for 2024, increasing to 2.56 CNY by 2026 [5] - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.72 CNY for 2024, increasing to 0.99 CNY by 2026 [5] - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.27 CNY for 2024, increasing to 2.07 CNY by 2026 [5] 4. Inventory - As of September 11, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was recorded at 625,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1,000 tons [7] - The aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas was 132,500 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 750 tons [7] 5. Demand - The arrival of the traditional peak season has led to improved order conditions for most profile enterprises, with various downstream sectors showing varying degrees of recovery [7] - The operating rate of aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% [7]
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20250911
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 12:28
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has increased expectations of three interest rate cuts within the year due to the decline in the US PPI to 2.6% and the weakening of the US non - farm payroll data. Copper supply is facing disruptions, and the market is expected to have a pattern of "increased supply and weakened consumption" next week [3][4]. - The alumina supply - demand surplus is becoming more apparent in the spot market, with prices showing a downward trend, but there may be interference from the "anti - involution" sentiment [11][13]. - The aluminum price is supported by the increase in market interest rate cut expectations and the improvement in fundamental factors such as the decrease in ingot casting volume and the reduction in social inventory [17][21]. - The policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry have initially shown their impact, but the actual influence is still limited to local areas. The alloy ingot spot price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong [25][29]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increased social inventory and weak consumption, and the short - term price trend is not clear [34][37]. - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [41]. - The nickel market is affected by factors such as the increase in LME inventory and high supply growth, and the price has limited upward space and a weak trend [48][49]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern due to concerns about recession risks and the accumulation of supply pressure [57]. - The tin market has tight ore supply and uncertain demand recovery, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63][66]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight - balance state, and short - term long positions are recommended [70]. - The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [75][76]. - The lithium carbonate market has a stage - tight supply - demand situation, and short - term rebounds can be considered for short - selling opportunities [81]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE copper 2510 contract was 80,130 yuan/ton, up 0.56%, with the index position increasing by 8,972 lots to 494,900 lots. The spot premium in Shanghai rose to 85 yuan/ton, while the premiums in Guangdong and North China decreased [2]. - **Important Information**: Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the possible restart of its closed copper mine. As of September 11, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons compared to Monday, but is expected to increase slightly next week [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic factors increase interest - rate cut expectations, and the copper supply is affected by production accidents and policies, with tight supply and weakened consumption [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a weak oscillation [14]. 3.2 Alumina - **Market Review**: The price of the alumina 2511 contract increased by 16 yuan to 2,925 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [8]. - **Relevant Information**: India has postponed the approval of an alumina project, and some electrolytic aluminum enterprises are conducting alumina procurement tenders. The industry's average profit in August was 368 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus is obvious, and prices are falling. The flow of goods from the north to the south is increasing, and the market is in a weak state [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: After a correction, consider long positions on dips, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [11]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE aluminum 2510 contract was 20,915 yuan/ton, up 1,305 yuan, with the position increasing by 27,022 lots to 569,300 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [17]. - **Relevant Information**: The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, and China's CPI and PPI data were released. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, and some overseas projects are progressing [17][18]. - **Trading Logic**: The market's interest - rate cut expectations support the price, and the improvement in fundamentals such as inventory reduction drives the price up [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be considered on dips. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [22][23]. 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 125 yuan to 20,475 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 2,314 lots to 14,012 lots. Spot prices remained stable [25]. - **Relevant Information**: Policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry are affecting the market, the industry's profit in August was 104 yuan/ton, and the futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [25][26][28]. - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes, tight raw material supply, and increasing downstream demand support the price, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly with aluminum, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [30][31]. 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review**: The SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 22,250 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 970 lots to 222,700 lots. The spot market trading was dull [33]. - **Relevant Information**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and the CZSPT released the reference range for the import zinc concentrate processing fee [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of smelters may decline slightly in September, consumption is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [35][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and consider short positions on rallies [38]. 3.6 Lead - **Market Review**: The SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 742 lots to 89,300 lots. The spot market had weak demand [39]. - **Relevant Information**: The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may move sideways in the short term [42]. 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review**: The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 130 yuan to 120,620 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 5,412 lots. The premiums of different nickel products changed [43][44]. - **Relevant Information**: SMM expects the Indonesian domestic trade ore price to rise slightly in the second half of September [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in LME inventory and high supply growth limit the upward space of the price [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [50][51][52]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract fell 30 yuan to 12,795 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 1,990 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported [54]. - **Relevant Information**: The stainless - steel inventory in Foshan decreased, and a new project's environmental impact report was being approved [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: Concerns about recession risks and supply pressure lead to a wide - range oscillation pattern [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [58][59]. 3.9 Tin - **Market Review**: The main SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 271,260 yuan/ton, up 1,780 yuan/ton or 0.66%, and the position decreased by 532 lots to 57,067 lots. The spot price rose, but the trading was slow [61]. - **Relevant Information**: US and Chinese economic data were released, and the domestic tin production in August decreased [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The ore supply is tight, the demand recovery is uncertain, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate weakly, and temporarily wait and see for options [66][67]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Affected by market rumors, the industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 8,740 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price generally rose 100 yuan/ton [68][69]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [70]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The market is in a tight - balance state, and the price has an upward trend [70]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and consider reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts [71]. 3.11 Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract rose slightly, closing at 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price remained stable [74]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released, and the demand and supply situation of polysilicon in September was analyzed [75]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [76]. - **Strategy**: Participate in light long positions with timely stop - loss, conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [77]. 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 880 yuan to 71,000 yuan/ton, the index position decreased by 17,672 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 290 tons to 38,391 tons. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased [78]. - **Relevant Information**: Shanghai's new energy上网电价 reform notice was issued, and the national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [79][80]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand situation is stage - tight, and the price may have a short - term rebound [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds, temporarily wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [80][81][83].
宏观面偏利多的支撑下 铝价或偏强运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-11 08:05
Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed a positive trend on September 11, with the main contract for aluminum futures rising by 0.63% to 20,915.00 CNY/ton [1] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a significant cooling in the U.S. job market, with a downward revision of approximately 910,000 jobs for August non-farm data, leading to expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August increased by 2.6% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.3%, and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, which is significantly below the anticipated 0.3% [1] Group 2 - Electrolytic aluminum smelting enterprises are expected to continue increasing production due to high profit margins, with 100% of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity being profitable in August [1] - The consumption of aluminum is expected to improve marginally as the traditional demand season begins, although rising aluminum prices may suppress downstream procurement [1] - As of September 8, aluminum ingot social inventory was 631,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from September 4, while aluminum rod inventory decreased by 5,500 tons [1] Group 3 - New Lake Futures predicts that supply will continue to increase slightly, with consumption expected to improve marginally, supporting a strong aluminum price outlook [2]
天山铝业:石河子市锦隆能源产业链有限公司累计质押股数约为3.09亿股
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-10 09:56
Company Summary - Tianshan Aluminum Industry (SZ 002532) announced that as of the announcement date, Shihezi Jinlong Energy Industry Chain Co., Ltd. has pledged approximately 309 million shares, accounting for 33.9% of its holdings [1] - Shihezi Jinhui Energy Investment Co., Ltd. has pledged approximately 173 million shares, representing 50% of its holdings [1] - Zeng Chao Yi has pledged approximately 188 million shares, which is 47.77% of his holdings [1] - Zeng Chao Lin has pledged approximately 137 million shares, accounting for 45.42% of his holdings [1] - For the first half of 2025, Tianshan Aluminum's revenue composition is 100% from the aluminum industry [1] - As of the report, Tianshan Aluminum's market capitalization is 48.5 billion yuan [1]
旺季周期内需求存超预期可能 沪铝维持区间震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-04 06:01
Market Review - The main contract for aluminum futures closed at 20,710 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.02% compared to the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - As of September 4, the aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas is 140,000 tons, down by 3,000 tons from Monday, but up by 6,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - On September 4, 2025, the total aluminum rod inventory in Guangdong and Wuxi is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period [2] - According to research, the preliminary value of China's primary aluminum production in August 2025 is 3.7879 million tons, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year and 0.29% month-on-month; the average daily output in August is 122,200 tons, an increase of 300 tons month-on-month [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, the rapid inventory buildup in various downstream sectors ahead of the peak season in September indicates a potential for demand in the electrolytic aluminum sector to exceed expectations, with profits in the aluminum industry continuing to shift from upstream to downstream [3] - Yide Futures notes that the operating rate in the aluminum processing sector is recovering, supporting aluminum prices; however, aluminum ingot inventories remain below seasonal levels, and terminal consumption has not significantly started, indicating insufficient upward driving forces [3]
新能源及有色金属日报:电解铝宏观微观共振向上-20250903
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 06:32
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged, consumption shows positive signs, and the spot discount is slightly repaired. The social inventory is expected to decline, and the macro - situation is favorable [6]. - The alumina price is neutrally treated due to factors such as ore - end disturbances, winter storage expectations, and the Guinea election event. The supply - demand balance is slightly in surplus [7]. - The production profit of aluminum alloy is significantly repaired, indicating actual consumption recovery. Attention can be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,710 yuan/ton, with a change of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 20 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 20,570 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount is - 160 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day [1]. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,650 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 75 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. Aluminum Futures - On September 2, 2025, the main Shanghai aluminum contract opened at 20,650 yuan/ton, closed at 20,720 yuan/ton, a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,755 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,640 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 103,466 lots, and the position was 213,947 lots [2]. Inventory - As of September 2, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 623,000 tons, a change of 0.3 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 58,654 tons, a change of 125 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 479,600 tons, a change of - 1,450 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On September 2, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,165 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,135 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,180 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,290 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 368 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On September 2, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,015 yuan/ton, closed at 3,022 yuan/ton, a change of 13 yuan/ton (0.43%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 3,046 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,994 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 310,480 lots, and the position was 242,297 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On September 2, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil - use scrap aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, and the mechanical scrap aluminum was 15,900 yuan/ton, a change of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 20,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 54,600 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 61,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,027 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 373 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The supply side remains unchanged, consumption shows positive signs, and the spot discount is slightly repaired. The downstream processing enterprises' production and operating rates are increasing, showing signs of a transition from the off - season to the peak season. The social inventory accumulation has slowed down, and de - stocking is expected. The macro - situation is favorable, and overseas consumption remains strong [6]. Alumina - In Guangxi, 5,000 tons of alumina were traded at a spot - cash price of 3,180 yuan/ton. The rainy season affects the import of Guinea ore and domestic ore mining. The alumina price lacks the driving force to fall further due to potential cost increases. The supply - demand balance remains slightly in surplus, and inventories are increasing. The alumina price is neutrally treated [6][7]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, but the production profit is significantly repaired, and the price difference between the spot price and aluminum ingots shows a seasonal repair trend, indicating actual consumption recovery. The increase in social inventory is mainly due to the transformation of invisible inventory to visible inventory. Attention can be paid to the spread arbitrage of the AD2511 - AL2511 contract [7]. 3. Strategy Unilateral - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] Arbitrage - Shanghai aluminum positive spread arbitrage; Long AD11 and short AL11 [8]
有色金属月报(氧化铝与电解铝及铝合金):美联储9月降息预期几无悬念,传统消费淡季转旺季支撑铝价-20250902
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 05:35
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation is heating up, and the transition from the traditional off - season to the peak season in the domestic market supports aluminum prices [1]. - The domestic alumina supply - demand is expected to be loose, but the rising cost may limit the downside of prices; the electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be cautiously bullish; the aluminum alloy price is expected to be volatile and bullish [5][7][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side Changes**: The construction of China Aluminum's bauxite mine and the start of the bauxite project in Qingzhen may reduce the domestic bauxite production and import in September. The domestic alumina production capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the production may decrease in September. Overseas projects may reduce the domestic alumina import in September [4][21][39]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory in ports has decreased, while the total inventory has increased [17][34]. - **Price and Cost**: The bauxite price has increased, pushing up the alumina production cost. The average full - cost of alumina production is about 2890 yuan/ton [21][26]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 2800 - 3000 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side Changes**: Some domestic projects are expected to increase production capacity, but the overall production in September may decrease. Overseas projects may reduce the domestic import in September [6][65][68]. - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory has increased, the bauxite inventory in ports has increased, and the inventory in LME has increased [51]. - **Price and Cost**: The theoretical weighted average full - cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16650 yuan/ton [65]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended that investors go long on dips, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of SHFE aluminum and LME aluminum [7]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side Changes**: The production of waste aluminum may increase, and the production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys may increase in September. The import of unforged aluminum alloy may increase [9][80][91]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises' raw materials and finished products may increase [91]. - **Price and Cost**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy is close to loss, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended that investors go long on dips for the main contract or short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy, paying attention to the support and resistance levels [9].
天山铝业:9月1日召开董事会会议
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-01 09:30
Group 1 - Tianshan Aluminum Industry held its 17th meeting of the 6th Board of Directors on September 1, 2025, in Shanghai, where it reviewed the proposal for the first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 [1] - For the first half of 2025, Tianshan Aluminum's revenue composition was 100.0% from the aluminum industry [1] - As of the report date, Tianshan Aluminum's market capitalization was 46.4 billion yuan [1]