电解铝 ：商品情绪转弱 铝市场中期仍看好 研究员：陈婧 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 铝策略展望 ◼ 衍生品：暂时观望。 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 宏观：美联储降息预期、地缘政治风险叠加去美元化预期推动资金青睐实物资产有色金属，去年四季度以来资金持续流入推动铝价随板块 上涨，同时关注伊朗地区地缘政治风险。但近日市场风险偏好有所变化，前期强势上涨品种的市场氛围降温带动沪铝资金流出。商品市场 情绪转弱，引发多品种回调。 ◼ 产业供应：供给端刚性预期明显，安哥拉新项目如期投产，越南电解铝项目投产预期从二季度推迟至7月初；欧洲部分产能寻求复产但仍 处于前期规划阶段、所处国家寻求欧盟补贴以应对高昂的电力成本。负基差较大带动短期铸锭增加、铝棒加工费短期转负，后续持续关注 铝水就地转化率。 ◼ 产业需求：表观需求短期有所 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market in 2025 experienced significant changes, primarily driven by valuation increases across various sectors, with the non-ferrous metals industry leading the gains [4] - The overall A-share market performance can be divided into four phases: Phase 1 (Jan-Mar): Technology concepts led the "tech bull"; Phase 2 (Apr-Jun): External shocks and internal support boosted the market; Phase 3 (Jun-Nov): Liquidity and economic conditions resonated, accelerating trends; Phase 4 (Nov-Dec): A period of consolidation after the main index rise [4] - Key characteristics of the 2025 A-share market include a new level of total market capitalization, continuous inflow of new funds, and a shift in market structure, with the electronics sector reaching the highest market value for the first time [4] Group 2 - Yonyou Network expects a reduction in losses for 2025, projecting a net profit of -1.3 billion to -1.39 billion yuan, with revenue expected to be between 9.17 billion and 9.27 billion yuan [6][8] - The company is transitioning to a subscription-based business model, which is expected to impact revenue growth rates, despite a recovery in contract signing amounts starting from the second quarter of 2025 [7] - The launch of the BIP "Ontology-Driven Agent" aims to enhance AI capabilities in enterprises, shifting from probabilistic generation to logical execution, providing a new foundation for high-quality AI applications [10][11] Group 3 - Ant Group's collaboration with Weining Health has led to the rapid deployment of AI products, with the monthly active users of the Ant Health app exceeding 30 million, indicating strong market penetration [12][13] - Weining Health's WiNEX series AI products have been implemented in nearly 150 medical institutions, enhancing clinical decision-making and documentation efficiency [14] - The Chinese medical software system market is projected to reach 11.5 billion yuan by 2029, with Weining Health focusing on domestic innovation and adaptation [15][16] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China reported stable loan rates and increased corporate loan issuance, indicating a positive outlook for the banking sector [18][19] - The December social financing data showed a year-on-year increase in new loans, primarily driven by corporate loans, suggesting a robust lending environment [19][20] Group 5 - The UK AR7 offshore wind auction results exceeded expectations, with a total auction volume of 8.4GW, marking a 58% increase from the previous round, indicating strong future demand for offshore wind projects [21][22] - Domestic manufacturers are expected to benefit from increased orders as a result of the AR7 auction outcomes, with significant growth anticipated in the offshore wind sector [24] Group 6 - Tencent Holdings is projected to achieve a revenue of 195.4 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with strong growth in its gaming and advertising segments [25][26] - The company is expected to maintain robust performance across its core businesses, with AI capabilities enhancing its overall ecosystem [27] Group 7 - The coal market is expected to see price support due to seasonal demand and supply constraints, with current prices at 695 yuan/ton [28][31] - The coking coal market is experiencing a recovery in demand as steel production increases, leading to a rise in coking coal prices [29][30] Group 8 - The State Grid's investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, significantly boosting the power equipment supply chain [41] - The focus on new energy systems and AI integration in power operations is expected to enhance operational efficiency and support the growth of emerging industries [41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [2]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment is mixed, with domestic policies aimed at boosting demand and liquidity, while external factors like the US Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook are causing caution in the market [7]. - The aluminum market is experiencing a seasonal inventory accumulation, driven by high prices and reduced downstream purchasing willingness [8]. - Long-term prospects for the aluminum industry remain positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases, leading to a sustained high level of industry activity [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of January 16, 2026, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $3,134.0 per ton, down $2.0 from the previous week but up $530.0 year-on-year, reflecting a 20.4% increase [25]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is 23,925.0 CNY per ton, down 405.0 CNY week-on-week but up 3,740.0 CNY year-on-year, indicating an 18.5% increase [25]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang is 24,000.0 CNY per ton, down 60.0 CNY week-on-week but up 4,040.0 CNY year-on-year, a 20.2% increase [25]. 2. Production - In December 2025, the aluminum production reached 3.781 million tons, an increase of 144,000 tons month-on-month and 197,000 tons year-on-year, marking a 5.5% increase [55]. - The alumina production for December 2025 was 7.520 million tons, up 80,000 tons month-on-month and 18.1% year-on-year [55]. 3. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.77 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 11.4 [6]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 1.28 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 14.1 [6]. - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.56 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 12.2 [6]. - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 0.92 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 14.4 [6]. - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.07 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 15.7 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength - weakness analysis of the casting aluminum alloy industry is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the bullish sentiment in the market first soared and then declined. The price of Shanghai aluminum strengthened and then fell, driving the price of casting aluminum alloy to fluctuate at a high level, once reaching a high of 23,940 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, during the Spring Festival stockpiling period of recycled aluminum enterprises, the demand for scrap aluminum increased, and the supply of scrap aluminum raw materials remained tight. However, the high price motivated traders to increase their shipment enthusiasm, leading to an increase in market liquidity. The operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry this week was stable at 58%. Due to repeated regional environmental protection restrictions and the suppression of downstream demand by high aluminum prices, the subsequent operating rate may continue to weaken. In terms of demand, downstream die - casting enterprises showed strong fear of high prices, and enterprise orders declined significantly. Overall, with high raw material prices and the maintenance of the seasonal off - peak demand, the price of casting aluminum alloy may maintain high - level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the overall sentiment changes in the non - ferrous market [6]. - As of January 16, the combined inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.32 million tons from the previous week to 12.95 million tons, with a high level of visible inventory. From January 1 to 11, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 328,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a 42% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 328,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 32%. The central economic work conference in 2026 will optimize the "two new" policies, with a more precise subsidy method and different subsidy intensities for different price - range models, benefiting mid - to - high - end cars more [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction End - Volume and Price - Showed the price difference curves of AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03, as well as the capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest trends of casting aluminum alloy [9] Transaction End - Arbitrage Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2601.shf and AD2602.shf contracts on January 16, 2026, the spread was 100 yuan/ton. The fixed cost was 16.05 yuan/ton, mainly including the value - added tax of the spread. The floating cost was 90.47 yuan/ton, including storage fees and capital costs. The total cost was 107 yuan/ton [12] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The actual market spot price fluctuates around the Baotai price. Taking January 16, 2026 as an example, the spot price was 23,500 yuan/ton. After calculating various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs, the warehouse receipt cost was 23,652 yuan/ton [14] Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Scrap aluminum imports are also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [16][21] Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has strengthened. The regional spread of casting aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy is flat, while the monthly operating rate has declined. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy and the output and inventory of recycled aluminum rods are also presented, along with their regional proportion data [32][37][42] - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, it is estimated to be in a loss state. The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy has slightly decreased, while the social inventory has slightly increased. The import window for casting aluminum alloy has opened [48][53][58] Demand End - Terminal Consumption - In the terminal consumption market, fuel - powered vehicles have entered the year - end sales rush stage, which has been transmitted to the die - casting consumption market. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel - powered vehicles, motorcycles, and household appliances are also provided, along with the PPI of auto parts and the auto inventory warning index [65][66]

Group 1 - The core strategy focuses on enhancing pricing power in resource and traditional manufacturing sectors, recommending an increase in non-bank financial assets while considering counter-consensus varieties to reduce portfolio volatility [1][3][18] - The market is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend in thematic and small-cap stocks until after the Two Sessions, driven by improved domestic demand expectations [3][20] - The aluminum industry is projected to see a price center of 23,000 yuan/ton by 2026, supported by sustained demand growth in electricity grids and automotive sectors, despite potential supply increases from Indonesia [5][22] - The rare earth industry is entering a high-quality development phase, with a forecasted widening supply-demand gap starting in 2026, leading to stable price increases and improved profitability across the industry chain [6][23] Group 2 - The electronic sector is experiencing price increases across various sub-segments due to rising upstream metal costs and strong demand driven by AI, suggesting a focus on segments like storage and wafer fabrication that are likely to benefit from this trend [7][25] - The non-bank financial sector is expected to see improved operational quality and valuation potential, with current PB ratios indicating a favorable investment environment [8][26] - China's social financing growth has slightly slowed, but export resilience has strengthened, indicating a stable outlook for 2026, supported by robust non-US export performance [9][33][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Shanghai aluminum may experience short - term high - level fluctuations and adjustments [53]. - The price of aluminum alloy may follow the price of electrolytic aluminum and undergo high - level shock adjustments [51]. - The alumina market is expected to continue to have an oversupply situation [21]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Report Summary - The report analyzes the aluminum industry from multiple aspects, including macroeconomic data, supply and demand of raw materials, production and sales of products, and inventory changes. It also provides a forecast for the future price trend of aluminum [53][51]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to be accumulated, but the production operation can be maintained, and the end - user side hopes to maintain resilience [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: The US dollar index is high, and the sentiment of the non - ferrous metal market has turned weak with macro data showing a rebound [7]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Macroeconomic Data**: In the US in December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. The CPI rose by 2.7% year - on - year. In China in December 2025, the CPI rose by 0.8% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year with the decline narrowing [9][14]. - **Raw Material Supply**: From January to November 2025, China's bauxite cumulative production reached 55.2135 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. In November, imports reached 15.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.3%. In 2025, the new domestic alumina production capacity was 9.8 million tons, and it is expected to reach 8.6 million tons in 2026 [16][19][22]. - **Production and Sales of Products**: In December 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.9% year - on - year and 4.0% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio dropped by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month. The domestic downstream aluminum processing enterprises' average opening rate increased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 60.2%. In December 2025, the domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 640,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41,800 tons [27][29][43]. - **Inventory Situation**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly to 490,000 tons. The SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 10.79% to 143,828 tons in the week of January 9. As of January 15, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 749,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons compared to Monday. As of January 16, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 69,300 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons compared to last week, and the in - plant inventory was 60,200 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared to last week [36][39][48]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The price of Shanghai aluminum may experience short - term high - level fluctuations and adjustments. The price of aluminum alloy may follow the price of electrolytic aluminum and undergo high - level shock adjustments [53][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum price may experience high - level volatility and adjustment in the short term, and the aluminum alloy price will follow the electrolytic aluminum price and may also undergo high - level volatility and adjustment [5][72][75]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Report Summary - US employment data supports the rebound of the US dollar index, increasing pressure on non - ferrous metals. The domestic "structural interest rate cut" and moderately loose policies help support the fundamentals, but market sentiment has weakened due to the high - level volatility of precious metals [5]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased slightly, and the production volume has also increased. The downstream processing sector has shown differentiated performance among leading enterprises, with the overall operating rate increasing slightly due to pre - holiday inventory preparation. The aluminum ingot social inventory has continued to accumulate, but the inventory level is not high, and the pressure on aluminum prices is limited [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating production capacity has changed little, the social inventory has continued to accumulate but the inventory level is not high, and the processing end operating rate is expected to remain resilient [8]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The rebound of the US dollar index has increased pressure on non - ferrous metals, and the macro sentiment has weakened [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Aluminum Ore Supply - **Domestic Supply**: The domestic bauxite supply is tight. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 4.21% year - on - year, but the November output decreased by 5.26% year - on - year. The performance in different regions was significantly different. The northern region faced a phased supply shortage [20]. - **Overseas Supply**: Overseas bauxite supply may be relatively loose. In November, the import volume increased by 9.8% month - on - month and 22.3% year - on - year, with a significant increase in imports from Guinea [23]. 3.3.2 Alumina Market - The alumina market is expected to continue to have an oversupply situation. In 2025, the new domestic production capacity was 9800000 tons, and it is expected to reach 8600000 tons in 2026. If all new production capacity is released as expected, the oversupply will exceed 10000000 tons [27]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Production - In December 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.9% year - on - year and 4.0% month - on - month. The aluminum water ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month to 76.5%. It is expected that the operating production capacity will increase slightly at the beginning of next year, and the aluminum water ratio may continue to decline [32]. 3.3.4 Aluminum Processing - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 60.2% due to pre - holiday inventory preparation, but high aluminum prices restricted downstream consumption and the recovery of the operating rate [35]. 3.3.5 Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly to 490000 tons, while the SHFE aluminum inventory increased significantly by 10.79% to 143828 tons in the week of January 9 [45]. - **Social Inventory**: As of January 15, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 749000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons from Monday. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, but the pressure on aluminum prices is limited [49]. 3.3.6 Price and Premium - On January 19, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumaobao aluminum was - 140 yuan/ton, with an expanded discount, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium changed from a discount to a premium of 1.42 US dollars/ton [53]. 3.3.7 Recycled Aluminum - In December, the domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 640400 tons, a decrease of 41800 tons month - on - month. Small and medium - sized enterprises faced raw material procurement difficulties, and the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry is expected to decline slightly in January [56]. 3.3.8 Aluminum Alloy Import and Export - In November 2025, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 28.2% year - on - year and 4.2% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 51.5% year - on - year and decreased by 1.0% month - on - month. The import volume is expected to remain low in December [63]. 3.3.9 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - As of January 16, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 69300 tons, an increase of 1100 tons from last week, and the in - plant inventory was 60200 tons, a decrease of 4300 tons from last week [68]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The aluminum alloy price will follow the electrolytic aluminum price, and both may experience high - level volatility and adjustment [72][75].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the raw material price is falling and supply is increasing, while demand from the electrolytic aluminum industry is stable. The recommendation is to trade the main alumina contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - Regarding electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable but demand is cautious due to the off - season and high prices. The suggestion is to trade the main Shanghai aluminum contract with a light position in a weakly volatile way, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For cast aluminum, the supply is converging and demand is weakening. It is recommended to trade the main cast aluminum contract with a light position in a weakly volatile way, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Considering the potential increase in aluminum price volatility in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on volatility expansion in the options market [69]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum fell from a high, with a weekly change of - 1.66% to 23925 yuan/ton; alumina trended weakly, with a weekly change of - 3.24% to 2751 yuan/ton; cast aluminum's main contract rose and then fell, with a weekly change of - 1.09% to 22735 yuan/ton [5][7]. - **Market Outlook and Views**: Alumina has an oversupply situation with stable demand; electrolytic aluminum has stable supply and cautious demand; cast aluminum has converging supply and weakening demand. Corresponding trading strategies are provided for each [5][7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Aluminum Futures**: As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum closing price was 23850 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan/ton (2.47%) from January 9; the LME aluminum closing price on January 15 was 3167.5 dollars/ton, up 76.5 dollars/ton (2.47%) from January 9; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.63, down 0.22 from January 9 [10][11]. - **Alumina and Cast Aluminum Futures**: As of January 16, 2026, the alumina futures price was 2627 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.61%) from January 9; the cast aluminum alloy's main closing price was 22735 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton (1.09%) from January 9 [14]. - **Shanghai Aluminum Positions**: As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum position was 697874 lots, down 40763 lots (5.52%) from January 9; the net position of the top 20 was 4602 lots, up 87729 lots from January 9 [17]. - **Futures Spreads**: As of January 16, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 825 yuan/ton, up 1185 yuan/ton from January 9; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 76845 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan/ton from January 9 [20]. - **Spot Markets**: Alumina spot prices in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang fell; the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) rose; the A00 aluminum ingot spot price fell, and the spot discount increased [24][27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased, the SHFE inventory and domestic social inventory increased; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the LME registered warehouse receipts increased slightly [30]. - **Bauxite**: The import volume of bauxite in November 2025 increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the nine - port inventory increased [35]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The scrap aluminum price in Shandong fell, the import volume increased in November 2025, and the export volume decreased [39]. - **Alumina**: The alumina output in November 2025 increased year - on - year, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased [42]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum import volume in November 2025 decreased year - on - year, the output increased year - on - year, the in - production capacity, total capacity, and operating rate increased in December 2025 [45][49]. - **Aluminum Products**: The total output of aluminum products in November 2025 decreased year - on - year, and both imports and exports decreased [53]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The production capacity of cast aluminum alloy decreased in December 2025 compared to the same period last year, and the output decreased [56]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The total output of aluminum alloy in November 2025 increased year - on - year, imports decreased, and exports increased [59]. - **Real Estate**: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index declined, and the new construction and completion areas from January to November 2024 decreased year - on - year [62]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: Infrastructure investment increased from January to November 2025; automobile sales and production in December 2025 decreased year - on - year [65]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the potential increase in aluminum price volatility in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on volatility expansion [69].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the magnesium industry [7]. Core Viewpoints - The magnesium industry is approaching a "singularity moment" as the penetration of magnesium alloys in the electric vehicle and humanoid robot sectors accelerates, with leading manufacturers expected to see a rapid release of orders [4][14]. - The magnesium-aluminum ratio is at a historical low, opening up cost-effective opportunities for magnesium to replace aluminum in various applications [10][12]. - Technological advancements are addressing the corrosion resistance and processing challenges of magnesium alloys, facilitating broader application [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Lightweight Cycle Review - The penetration rate of magnesium alloys has lagged behind expectations, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, where the aluminum usage per vehicle is significantly higher than that of magnesium [23][24]. 2. Low Magnesium-Aluminum Ratio - The magnesium-aluminum ratio has dropped below 1, indicating that magnesium alloys are becoming more economically viable compared to aluminum [10][12]. - The supply of aluminum remains tight due to high overseas electricity prices and operational challenges, while the magnesium supply is gradually stabilizing [34][46]. 3. Technological Breakthroughs - Advances in semi-solid forming technology are improving the mechanical properties and corrosion resistance of magnesium alloys, thus expanding their application potential [10][11][32]. - The demand for lightweight materials in electric vehicles and humanoid robots is increasing, with projections indicating a significant rise in magnesium alloy usage [10][12][41]. 4. Summary - The magnesium industry is expected to experience growth driven by increasing demand and supply optimization policies, benefiting leading magnesium refining companies [54][56]. 5. Listed Companies - Key investment targets include Baowu Magnesium Industry (002182, Buy) and Xingyuan Zhuomag (301398, Not Rated), both of which are positioned to benefit from the industry's growth [4][14].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - and medium - term, the supply - demand of tin ingots is expected to improve, and nickel and zinc have supply - related speculations. After a rapid price increase, profit - taking by funds led to an adjustment. However, the logic of a weak US dollar expectation and supply - disruption concerns remains unchanged. Opportunities to buy copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel at low prices should be watched for, and downstream industrial customers should pay attention to restocking opportunities during the adjustment. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply - disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin persist, leading to an expected tightening of supply - demand and a positive outlook for their prices [2]. - For each metal: - Copper: Supply disruptions continue to increase, and the copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly [3][7]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, and the alumina price is under pressure and expected to fluctuate [3][8]. - Aluminum: Inventory continues to accumulate, the aluminum price has declined, but in the short - term, it is expected to remain strong with fluctuations due to positive macro - expectations and a tight supply - demand outlook [3][12]. - Aluminum alloy: Cost support persists, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][14]. - Zinc: The LME has suspended the delivery of KZ and YP zinc, and the SHFE zinc price has broken through 25,000 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [3][17]. - Lead: Social inventory has significantly increased, limiting the upside potential of the lead price, and it is expected to fluctuate [3][22]. - Nickel: Policy expectations are in a game with the weak reality, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate [3][23]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price continues to rise, and the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate [3][26]. - Tin: Supply remains in short - supply, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Information analysis**: The US December CPI data was in line with expectations. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at 0 dollars/ton. December SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper on January 15 had a higher average premium than the previous trading day. A Chilean copper mine's union will start a strike, and the production of a mine in Ecuador has been postponed [7]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, the Fed may continue to be loose, supporting the copper price. On the supply - demand side, copper - mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak and inventory is accumulating, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [8]. - **Outlook**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to supply constraints and increasing disruptions [8]. Alumina - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the spot prices of alumina in various regions declined, and the alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. - **Main logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, high - cost capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient, and the cost support is weak. However, as the valuation is in a low range, price fluctuations may increase [9]. - **Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate due to an oversupply in reality and a low - range valuation [9]. Aluminum - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the SMM AOO average price and the premium/discount of aluminum decreased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum bars in major domestic consumption areas increased, and the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts also increased. The Q1 2026 aluminum - ingot premium in Japanese ports increased significantly, and the December 2025 export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [12]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, the US interest - rate cut expectation and China's new - infrastructure policies are positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is high, and overseas new - project progress is uncertain. On the demand side, high prices have suppressed demand, and inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term price is expected to remain strong with fluctuations [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong with fluctuations. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and the price center is expected to rise [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the prices of some aluminum - alloy products decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased. An Indonesian electrolytic - aluminum project has started production [14]. - **Main logic**: The cost is supported by a tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is restricted by raw - material shortages and profit issues, and policies may also affect supply. The demand is mainly for刚需 in the short - term and is expected to improve marginally in the medium - term. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the warehouse - receipt inventory has increased. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short - and medium - term, the aluminum - alloy price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to cost support and a tight supply - demand balance [16]. Zinc - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the spot premiums of 0 zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc - ingot inventory decreased slightly. The LME has suspended the further delivery of certain zinc brands since January 14, 2026 [19]. - **Main logic**: The macro - outlook is relatively stable. The zinc - ore supply is tight, and the smelter's profit has declined. The domestic zinc - ingot supply pressure is not significant in the short - term. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. In the short - term, the zinc price may remain high and fluctuate, and in the long - term, it may decline [20]. - **Outlook**: In January, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate as the production has increased slightly, the demand is in the off - season, but exports and the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector support the price [21]. Lead - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the price of waste electric - vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of SMM1 lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased. The LME has suspended the further delivery of a certain lead brand since January 14, 2026 [22]. - **Main logic**: The spot premium and the original - recycled lead price difference have increased, and the futures warehouse receipts have increased. The supply has increased as some smelters have resumed production, and the demand is mixed, with a decline in electric - bicycle orders but an improvement in automobile - battery orders. Overall, the lead price is expected to fluctuate [23]. - **Outlook**: As the lead - ingot production recovers and the demand weakens marginally, but the waste - battery cost remains high, the lead price is expected to fluctuate [23]. Nickel - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts and the LME nickel inventory increased. An Indonesian nickel - mining company has fully resumed operations, and Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel - ore production quota in 2026. The SMM expects a significant increase in the Indonesian domestic - trade nickel - ore price in the second half of January 2026 [24]. - **Main logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure as domestic and Indonesian production remains high. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall fundamentals are in surplus. The Indonesian nickel - ore quota is uncertain, and its actual implementation needs to be monitored [25]. - **Outlook**: In January, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate as the fundamentals are not significantly improved, but the Indonesian policy may affect the supply - demand balance [25]. Stainless Steel - **Information analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On January 15, the spot price of stainless steel in Foshan had a certain discount compared to the futures contract. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the SMM expects a significant increase in the Indonesian domestic - trade nickel - ore price in the second half of January 2026 [26]. - **Main logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the increase in nickel - iron price. The production in December decreased, and there may be a slight increase in January. The terminal demand is cautious. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the warehouse receipts are at a low level [26]. - **Outlook**: In January, the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate as the production may increase slightly, the demand is weak in the off - season, but the cost is supported [26]. Tin - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the SHFE tin warehouse receipts increased, and the SHFE tin positions decreased. The average price of 1 tin ingots increased [27]. - **Main logic**: The supply of tin is a major concern. Supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa are expected to limit production. The demand is expected to increase due to the global economic situation and the growth of industries such as semiconductors, photovoltaics, and new - energy vehicles. Overall, the tin price is expected to be strong [28]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to high supply risks and low inventory in the industry chain [28]. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On January 15, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial - product index of CITIC Futures all decreased. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.09% on the day, 2.13% in the past 5 days, 12.72% in the past month, and 6.27% since the beginning of the year [156][158].