Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, suggesting a bottoming opportunity for investment in high-end liquor brands and potential cyclical recovery in beer and yellow wine sectors [2][11][12]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on sales due to external risks and a need for demand improvement, with expectations for the price of original box Feitian Moutai to stabilize around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The beer industry is showing signs of stabilization with a recovery in dining demand and potential for high-frequency sales tracking, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming peak season [3][12]. - The yellow wine sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and market promotion efforts by leading brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3][13]. - The snack food industry remains robust, driven by channel expansion and new product penetration, with expectations for continued high growth in Q2 [3][12]. - The soft drink sector is seeing demand improvement driven by health-oriented and functional beverages, with a positive outlook for brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [4][14]. - The seasoning industry is stabilizing at a low point, with growth relying on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant sector [5][15]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Feitian Moutai's original box price is stable between 1900-1950 RMB, with expectations for a price stabilization around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The industry is under pressure, but the market's expectations for short-term performance have been adequately priced in, suggesting a potential for recovery [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is expected to stabilize with a recovery in dining demand and increased focus on non-drinking channels [3][12]. - The industry is positioned for a favorable performance in the upcoming peak season, with anticipated steady mid-year earnings [3][12]. Yellow Wine Industry - The trend towards premiumization is becoming a consensus among leading brands, with increased marketing efforts and a focus on younger consumers [3][13]. Snack Food Industry - The snack food sector is maintaining high growth due to channel expansion and new product introductions, with Q2 performance expected to continue the positive trend [3][12]. Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink market is improving, driven by health and functional beverages, with brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring expected to perform well [4][14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing, with growth dependent on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant industry [5][15].

Core Viewpoint - Qiyunshan Food is preparing for an IPO, heavily reliant on its main product, South Jujube Cake, which contributed 2.94 billion RMB in revenue for 2024, accounting for 86.7% of total revenue [1][3]. Revenue and Product Performance - The South Jujube Cake has dominated the company's revenue, contributing 88.7%, 84.7%, and 86.7% of total revenue from 2022 to 2024 respectively [1][3]. - Other products, including South Jujube Granules, South Jujube Jelly, South Jujube Soft Candy, and South Jujube Frozen, are also based on South Jujube but have significantly lower revenue contributions [2]. - Revenue from South Jujube Granules increased from 10.44 million RMB in 2022 to 31.26 million RMB in 2024, but its share remains small at 9.2% [3]. Production Capacity and Strategy - The company strategically reduced production capacity for other products from 1,100 tons to 677 tons while increasing South Jujube Cake production capacity to 9,224 tons to meet rising market demand [4]. - The focus on a single product may enhance short-term efficiency but could limit long-term market adaptability due to a lack of product diversification [4][6]. Marketing and Sales Channels - Qiyunshan Food has a high marketing expenditure, with sales and marketing costs reaching 75.84 million RMB in 2024, accounting for 23.11% of revenue [10]. - The company relies heavily on offline sales channels, with 89.3% of revenue generated through 230 distributors, of which 199 are offline [7][9]. - Online sales have been declining, with online direct sales contributing only 10.4% of total revenue in 2024, down from 12.7% in 2022 [9][10]. Customer Concentration - In 2024, a single customer contributed 22.9% of total revenue, indicating a growing reliance on a few key clients [12][13]. - The share of revenue from the top five customers has increased from 26.4% to 38.7% over the past three years, raising concerns about customer concentration risk [13]. Industry Trends - The snack industry is witnessing a shift towards volume-based sales channels, which has become a new growth driver for companies [14]. - However, this model may pressure brand owners on cost management and supply chain efficiency due to lower profit margins associated with volume sales [15]. Supply Chain Risks - Qiyunshan Food faces supply chain risks as it relies on local farmers for raw materials without formal contracts, making it vulnerable to supply shortages and price fluctuations [16].

【导读】齐云山 IPO 疑云：单一产品撑局、线上转型失速，传统老字号如何讲出新故事？ 然而， " 南酸枣依赖症 " 已经深入齐云山食品的骨髓。 2024 年，其南酸枣糕单品贡献了 2.94 亿元收入，占总营收的 86.7%； 而其他产品收入仅为 1300 万元，占比萎缩至 3.8% 。 招股书中，齐云山食品多次提及 " 多元化 " ，但过去三年，其研发投入远远低于销售及营销 开支。从营收占比来看，齐云山食品在营销上比先后签约杨幂、肖战、时代少年团等明星的 溜溜梅更敢 " 砸钱 " 。 在消费需求迭代加速、新锐品牌层出不穷的零食 " 战场 " ，老字号齐云山食品依赖的野果故 事，未来又如何在资本市场上书写新篇章？ 大单品魔咒：一款糕点撑起 IPO 梦 南酸枣糕的绝对主导地位，成为齐云山食品最醒目的标签。 2022 年至 2024 年期间，该产 品分别贡献了公司总收入的 88.7% 、 84.7% 和 86.7% 。 此外，齐云山食品推出的另外 4 种产品：南酸枣粒、南酸枣凝、南酸枣软糖及南酸枣冻，均 以南酸枣为核心原料。 | | | 2022财年 | | | 2023财年 | | | | 2024财年 | | ...

点击上图▲立即收听 " 近几年 ' 内卷式 ' 竞争的出现，并非是企业、雇员变得 ' 急功近利 ' 所致，其背后有深刻的宏观经济背景，受经济周期变化、体制机制问题和技术发展规律综合影响。 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 一股"刀刃向内"的改革正在一些重点行业展开。 汽车行业在这轮行动中最出圈，轰轰烈烈的60天账期革命备受关注，与此同时，近日，全国工商联汽车经销商商会又向各大汽车生产厂家提出缩 短返利兑现账期、简化返利政策、取消复杂限制条件等呼吁，打响了"反内卷"第二枪。 据路透社报道，中国新能源一家头部企业近期在多家工厂取消夜班、将部分产线产能削减至少1/3，并推迟新增产线计划。 还有"二师兄"。近期， 多家头部猪企接相关部门要求，去产能、二育调控、头部企业带头稳价格，集团场暂停能繁母猪扩产，出栏体重也需要控 制在120公斤左右。 光伏行业在主动踩刹车。自7月起，国内头部光伏玻璃企业计划集体减产30％，预计供应量将由此前的约64GW降至约45GW。 水泥行业则在展开自查。中国水泥协会发布文件，要求各会员企业对照备案产能与实际产能差异，依法依规按备案日产能和年产能组织生产。 " 7月的第一天， 中央财 ...

当商业的效率与公益的温度相遇，会产生怎样的化学反应?好想来就给出了自己的答案。就在近日，量 贩零食行业头部品牌好想来携手腾讯公益，以"会员积分助力+品牌捐赠"的创新模式，助力乡村儿童营 养加餐，帮助其健康成长。这一创新模式不仅让千万消费者的日常消费，变成守护乡村儿童成长的力 量，更通过商业与公益的深度融合，重新定义了零食品牌的社会价值。 在公益领域，捐赠往往会面临"后劲不足"的难题，而好想来深知，真正的公益需要"细水长流"。因此， 品牌没有选择直接捐钱，而是用积分搭建了一个连接消费者与乡村儿童的桥梁。 具体而言，会员消费 得积分，积分可捐赠，品牌按比例折算捐款，最终转化为乡村儿童的营养加餐。如首期"爱加餐助成 长"将以350积分/人为上限，用户可自愿选择助力积分数额。助力结束后，好想来会将周期内会员助力 积分总额按照100：1的方式折算为现金，捐赠至对应公益项目。这种"消费-积分-助力-爱心"的良性闭环 设计，让公益从"品牌的单独行动"变成"千万人的共同参与"。而消费者的"自愿选择"，也恰恰体现了商 业对公益的尊重。 在量贩零食行业，同质化竞争日益激烈，而好想来的"积分助力"项目推出后，品牌收获的不仅是公益口 ...

Group 1 - The company plans to invest up to 200 million RMB to enhance its supply chain, focusing on the construction of snack industrial parks and supply chain bases in various regions [2][3] - The strategic focus of the company is on "high-end cost performance," aiming to improve the self-production ratio of snack categories while maintaining reasonable pricing for consumers [2][3] - The company's revenue has fluctuated, increasing from 900 million RMB in 2014 to 10.2 billion RMB in 2019, then declining to over 7 billion RMB in 2022 and 2023, with a projected revenue of 10.6 billion RMB in 2024 [2] Group 2 - The company has been working to expand its offline channel presence, having previously relied heavily on e-commerce platforms [3] - A planned acquisition of the snack brand "Ai Ling Shi" for 200 million RMB was terminated due to disagreements on core terms, highlighting the company's challenges in offline expansion [3] - The company's offline store revenue was 404 million RMB in 2024, accounting for only 3.8% of total revenue, indicating a weak position in offline retail [3]

亿滋国际旗下的奥利奥、趣多多、闲趣、怡口莲、吉百利等都是中国消费者耳熟能详的标志性品牌。作 为全球领先的零食制造商，亿滋目前拥有三家灯塔工厂，分别位于中国苏州和北京、 印度斯里城。其中，坐落在苏州的工厂和研发中心已成为亿滋在亚洲、中东和非洲地区烘焙相关制品的 研发和生产中心，它还是全球零食饼干行业第一家"端到端灯塔工厂"。 不久前，麦肯锡全球董事合伙人 侯文皓 与亿滋亚洲、中东和非洲大区供应链高级副总裁 张凝芳 女士就 全球化与本土化、中企出海需修"耐心课"、灯塔工厂的榜样、AI和试错、员工培养的方法论、女性领导 力等话题展开了深入对话。 以下为编辑后的访谈实录。 全球化的平台，是品牌的平台，也是技术和人才的平台 侯文皓：从供应链的角度，您怎么看待供应链全球化和本土化的关系？ 张凝芳： 在全球化和本土化上面，我们要找到一个更好的平衡。全球化的平台，是本土的创新加整 合。首先我需要去贴近本土的消费者，贴近本土的消费环境，贴近本土的生态，但是我又不能忘记 作为一个全球公司是有一些优势，是可以为本土所用的。我们在讲本土的创新和整合的时候，更多 是在讲供应链的设置和供应链的解决方案需要满足本土消费者和本土客户的需求， ...

三只松鼠"高端性价比"战略再落一子。7月2日，三只松鼠宣布加大零食供应链及集约基地建设投资，拟追加不超过2亿元自有或自筹资金，用于完善华东 （芜湖）、华北（天津）、西南（简阳）三大区域供应链基地。为落实"高端性价比"总战略，实现从坚果到零食的供应链制造布局，提升零食品类整体自产 比例，近期在华东区供应链集约基地南陵零食园区成立了安徽松鼠布特食品有限公司、安徽松鼠星选食品有限公司和安徽松鼠一麦食品有限公司，注册资本 分别为1000万元、1200万元、2245万元，覆盖饼膨、方便速食、沙琪玛等品类。 三只松鼠由线上平台起家，主要经营坚果和休闲零食，随着流量成本攀升、平台转化效率下降，2020—2023年，三只松鼠营收分别下降了3.72%、0.24%、 25.35%和2.45%。其中，2022年净利润同比下降68.61%。 前不久，三只松鼠在2025全域生态大会上宣布正在孵化33个子品牌，涉及饮料、日化、咖啡、水饮、预制菜、女性用品等多个领域。为支撑全品类拓展，三 只松鼠近年来大力投入供应链建设，计划在芜湖、天津、成都、佛山等地打造四大供应链集约基地，仅芜湖基地就已布局7个工厂、17条产线。此外，通 过"一品一链" ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-07-03 股票投资评级 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 26.92 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）4.01 / 2.80 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）108 / 75 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 40.32 / 15.86 | | 资产负债率(%) | 58.1% | | 市盈率 | 26.39 | | 第一大股东 | 章燎源 | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 三只松鼠(300783) 多品类协同+全渠道共振，业态布局全面开花 ⚫ 投资要点 产品维度多品类矩阵持续深化，坚果百亿目标路径清晰，入局软 饮赛道目标破亿。坚果作为第一大品类，公司仍将持续深耕品类空间， 优化坚果礼盒产品线，推出高端子系列"大满坚果"，主攻一二线城市 及高端渠道，强化差异化竞争力。瓜子品类爆发力凸显，网红口味 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The liquor sector is experiencing a decline in sentiment due to fluctuations in the price of Feitian Moutai, with leading companies actively exploring new consumption scenarios and demographics [2][13] - The health products, soft drinks, and snacks sectors are viewed positively due to high growth potential, low base effects, and upcoming peak seasons [4][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.88% from June 23 to June 27, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.95% [1][22] - Specific sector performances included health products (+3.65%), baked goods (+2.72%), and soft drinks (-0.58%) [1][22] Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor sector declined by 1.66%, attributed to seasonal demand weakness and price fluctuations of high-end products like Feitian Moutai [2][13] - Current prices for 25-year Moutai (original/scattered) are 1870 RMB/1800 RMB, down by 80 RMB/100 RMB from the previous week [2][13] - The Shunwan white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18X, which is considered low compared to the historical average [2][13] Health Products and Snacks - The health products sector is experiencing a growth trend, with a 3.65% increase this week, driven by new consumption trends [20] - The snack sector is expected to benefit from low base effects and new product launches, with companies like Three Squirrels and Salted Fish being highlighted [17][21] Soft Drinks and Beer - The soft drink sector saw a slight decline of 0.6%, with notable performances from brands like Master Kong (+5.4%) and Nongfu Spring (+5.3%) [4][15] - The beer sector declined by 1.9%, but there is optimism for recovery with upcoming consumption policies [4][15] Investment Recommendations - Focus on strong alpha companies in the liquor sector such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, which are expected to benefit from market consolidation [4][21] - In the consumer goods sector, companies that align with cost reduction and market share growth strategies are recommended, including Li Gao Foods and Nongfu Spring [4][21]