食品饮料 2025 年 11 月 14 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒底部布局，兼顾成长型标的— 行业周报》-2025.11.9 《三季报业绩压力增大，白酒报表持 续出清—行业周报》-2025.11.2 《底部修复，柳暗花明—行业投资策 略》-2025.10.31 底部布局，柳暗花明 ——行业投资策略 | 张宇光（分析师） | 张恒玮（分析师） | 张思敏（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | zhanghengwei@kysec.cn | zhangsimin@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | 证书编号：S0790524010001 | 证书编号：S0790525080001 | |  市场表现：食品饮料年初至今跑输大盘 | | | 食品饮料跑输大盘，零食板块表现较好。2025 年 1-10 月食品饮料板块下降 1.1%， 跑输沪深 300 约 3 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Tencent reported a quarterly profit of 70.6 billion HKD, an increase of 18% compared to the previous year, exceeding expectations[2] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,073 points, up 150 points or 0.56% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 34.96%[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose to 4,029.50 points, reflecting a daily change of 0.73% and a year-to-date increase of 20.22%[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The foreign exchange fund earned 274 billion HKD in the first three quarters, marking a record high for the same period[2] - The foreign exchange fund's investment income for the last quarter was 60 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 48%[2] - China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in Q3, surpassing market expectations of 4.7%[14] Group 3: Stock Recommendations - Wei Long Snacks (9985.HK) has a suggested buy price of 11.50 HKD, with a target price of 13.00 HKD, currently trading at 12.01 HKD[14] - Tencent Holdings (700.HK) has a target price of 550 HKD, with a current price of 554 HKD, reflecting a 6.18% increase from the suggested buy price[11] - BYD Company (1211.HK) has a suggested buy price of 125.22 HKD, with a target price of 141.89 HKD, currently trading at 135.6 HKD[11]

靠卖饼干起家，泉州老板成为福建首富 又一福建企业顺利实现权棒交接。 近日，达利食品集团（下称"达利食品"）宣布，创始人许世辉的女儿许阳阳正式接任集团总裁。至此， 这一成立超过30年的福建食品饮料巨头，正式实现二代接班。 达利食品由1958年出生的福建泉州人许世辉创立于1989年，旗下有"达利园""好吃点""可比克""和其 正""乐虎""豆本豆"六大国民品牌，2018年至2021年，达利食品的营收均超过200亿元。背靠闷声赚钱的 达利食品，许世辉家族在2016年到2019年蝉联胡润百富榜福建首富。 正式掌舵达利食品的许阳阳，是许世辉的女儿，出生于1983年。2008年，留学归来的许阳阳进入达利食 品生产车间实习，从车间流水线工人做起，历经17年磨炼，直至成为达利食品总裁。 同为女承父业的80后继承人，许阳阳的接班路径与娃哈哈宗氏家族的宗馥莉有着诸多相似之处。与许阳 阳平稳接班不同的是，宗馥莉与娃哈哈还处于"内忧外患"的阵痛中。 图源：pexels 达利食品的前身，是许世辉于1989年在福建泉州惠安县创立的美利食品厂。在那个零食相对匮乏的年 代，饼干以散装称重为主，留意到消费者对高品质饼干的需求，许世辉推出了一款 ...

Industry Environment - Japan's consumer market thrives on high-frequency innovation, evolving from imitation to user-driven innovation since the 1980s, with companies establishing consumer research centers to deeply explore needs [3][4] - The "medicinal food" industry in China has surpassed 370 billion yuan, with a total industry valuation exceeding 2 trillion yuan, driven by health awareness and policy support [5] - The plant-based protein beverage market is facing pressure, but leading companies are preparing for peak seasons with channel expansion and new product promotions [6] Beverage Market Trends - HPP cold brew tea, combining high-pressure cold sterilization with cold brewing, is gaining popularity among young consumers, despite its higher cost and niche market status [7] - The beverage market is witnessing a return of sugary drinks, with brands like Yuanqi Forest and Wahaha launching new sugary products, reflecting consumer preferences for taste and pleasure [8] - The bottled water market is shifting from price competition to value competition, with companies like Nongfu Spring and China Resources leading through product innovation and channel transformation [9][10] Brand Dynamics - Mondelez International reported a 5.9% revenue growth in Q3 2025, but faced profit margin pressures due to rising costs and declining consumer confidence in emerging markets like China [20] - Xu Fu Ji's Meilu energy biscuits have rapidly gained popularity in the sports nutrition market, leveraging event sponsorships and targeted marketing strategies [21] - Coca-Cola's Q3 2025 revenue reached $12.455 billion, driven by price increases and strong sales of sugar-free products, despite a slight decline in the Chinese market [22] Plant-Based and Health Trends - Yangyuan Beverage is enhancing its leadership in the plant-based protein beverage sector through product innovation and channel restructuring [23] - The low-sugar trend is becoming mainstream, with brands like Holleyou launching new products that balance health and taste [25] - Mengniu's milk powder business has achieved double-digit growth by focusing on emotional marketing and channel optimization to meet diverse consumer needs [26] Emerging Opportunities - The plant milk market is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2025, with B2B channels becoming crucial for growth [14] - The sports drink segment is rapidly growing, with brands like Magic leveraging product upgrades and sports marketing to strengthen their market position [33] - The electrolyte drink market is dominated by brands like Dongpeng and Alien, with both focusing on channel strategies and product diversification to capture market share [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - Liuliu Fruit Garden Group Co., Ltd., the parent company of the "Liuliu Mei" brand, is urgently seeking to enter the capital market, having submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the fourth time after previous attempts failed due to various challenges [1][3]. Group 1: Listing Attempts and Financial Pressure - The company has faced significant pressure from a bet agreement with investors, which requires it to go public by the end of 2025 or face substantial financial penalties [2][3]. - Liuliu Fruit Garden's cash flow has been severely impacted by the repayment of 261 million yuan, which includes the original investment and interest, far exceeding the initial investment of 135 million yuan [3][4]. - As of the end of 2024, the company's cash and cash equivalents were only 78.05 million yuan, while interest-bearing bank loans reached 321 million yuan, indicating a deteriorating financial position [5][6]. Group 2: Revenue Growth and Channel Transformation - The company has shown steady revenue growth, achieving 1.174 billion yuan in 2022, 1.322 billion yuan in 2023, and 1.616 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit increase from 68.43 million yuan in 2022 to 148 million yuan in 2024 [7][8]. - A significant shift in sales channels has occurred, with the revenue share from traditional distribution channels dropping from 74.5% to 31.2%, while revenue from snack specialty stores surged from 1.1% to 35.3% [8][10]. - The company’s reliance on a few major clients has increased, with the top five clients accounting for 43.7% of revenue in the first half of 2025, raising concerns about potential revenue volatility if these relationships change [10]. Group 3: Profitability Challenges - Despite revenue growth, the company's gross margin has been declining, from 38.6% in 2022 to 34.6% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to a low-price volume strategy adopted to compete in new sales channels [11][12]. - The gross margin for core products, such as dried plums, has also decreased significantly, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability amid aggressive pricing strategies [11][12]. - The company faces a critical need to balance expansion and profitability while navigating the pressures from both capital requirements and market competition [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the liquor industry is entering a phase of adjustment, with a consensus on reduced growth rates for 2024 and an expansion of performance declines in Q3 reports [1][2] - The food and beverage sector is expected to show stable overall volume and structural differentiation by 2025, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenues growing by +2.5%/+2.4%/-4.77% year-on-year, and net profits declining by +0.3%/-2.1%/-14.6% [1] - The report highlights that the macroeconomic policies in Q4 could catalyze stock price increases due to low expectations in the capital market and low institutional holdings [1] Group 2 - The liquor sector is recommended for investment, particularly companies with pricing power and regional influence, such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai, which are expected to achieve greater growth [2] - The consumer goods sector is anticipated to stabilize and improve in 2025, driven by inventory reduction and macroeconomic policy support, with leading companies in segments like sugar-free tea and functional beverages showing strong revenue growth [3] - The snack food segment reported a revenue increase of +22.4% and an 8.6% rise in profits in Q3 2025, despite rising costs from certain raw materials [3]

Core Viewpoint - Salted Fish has experienced a stock price increase of 24.81% this year, with a recent decline of 2.00% on November 12, 2023, indicating potential volatility in the market [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Salted Fish achieved a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 605 million yuan, up 22.63% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 1.318 billion yuan, with 923 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of November 12, 2023, the stock price was 76.88 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 20.971 billion yuan and a trading volume of 146 million yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a net outflow of 4.3246 million yuan in principal funds, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 65.13% to 18,000, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 39.44% to 13,663 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with changes in holdings noted for several funds [3].

Core Viewpoint - Youyou Food's stock price has shown a significant increase of 38.50% year-to-date, indicating strong market performance despite recent fluctuations in trading volume and net capital outflow [2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 12, Youyou Food's stock price was 13.49 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 5.77 billion CNY [1] - The stock has increased by 2.43% over the last five trading days, 11.21% over the last 20 days, and 9.32% over the last 60 days [2] - The company has appeared on the trading leaderboard five times this year, with the most recent appearance on June 23, where it recorded a net buy of -36.22 million CNY [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Youyou Food achieved a revenue of 1.245 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.39% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 174 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43.34% [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 925 million CNY, with 547 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Youyou Food was 23,600, an increase of 40.75% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder was 18,141, a decrease of 28.95% from the previous period [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable funds, with Penghua Consumer Preferred Mixed Fund holding 2.393 million shares, an increase of 47.52% from the previous period [3]

Core Viewpoint - Black Sesame's stock price has shown volatility, with a year-to-date decline of 3.66% and recent fluctuations in trading performance [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Black Sesame reported a revenue of 1.469 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 7.52%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.8193 million yuan, down 83.67% year-on-year [3]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 211 million yuan, with 75.349 million yuan distributed over the past three years [4]. Stock Market Activity - As of November 12, Black Sesame's stock price was 6.58 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 4.958 billion yuan. The stock experienced a 2.08% decline during the trading session [1]. - The stock has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" twice this year, with the most recent instance on January 7, where net purchases amounted to 5.8916 million yuan [2]. Shareholder Information - As of October 31, the number of shareholders for Black Sesame was 95,000, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 1.05% to 7,779 shares [3]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the eighth largest, holding 2.4879 million shares as a new shareholder [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Wancheng Group has shown significant stock performance and financial growth in 2025, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit [1][2][3] - As of November 12, Wancheng Group's stock price increased by 137.78% year-to-date, with a market capitalization of 35.846 billion yuan [1] - The company operates primarily in the food and beverage sector, focusing on the research, cultivation, and sales of edible mushrooms, with snack products accounting for 98.95% of its revenue [1][2] Group 2 - For the first nine months of 2025, Wancheng Group achieved a revenue of 36.562 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 77.37%, and a net profit of 855 million yuan, up 917.04% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 1.7 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.36 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 44.39% to 11,400, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 25.90% [2][3]