证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-02-03 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4067.73 | 14127.10 | 4660.10 | 15290.00 | 4148.91 | 1471.06 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 1.29 | 2.19 | 1.17 | 2.30 | 2.66 | 1.39 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 11107.20 | 14335.11 | 6666.26 | 4888.38 | 6773.19 | 988.26 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ (4) [ (4) 36 $\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$] 宏观与策略 宏观深度:宏观经济深度报告-有形之手（1）：财政 ABC 之"四本账" 固定收益深度:固收+系列报告之十 ...

1月29日晚，三只松鼠（300783）发布2025年度业绩预告。去年全年，企业实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润1.35亿至1.75亿元之间。 此前，三只松鼠围绕"一区一品一链"供应链战略，已先后投资建设安徽无为华东供应链集约基地、芜湖弋江零食产业园、天津武清北区供应链集约基地、 四川简阳西南供应链集约基地，占地面积均超8万㎡，通过工厂、物流、研发、检测、渠道等要素集中，保障资源、管理、业务高效紧密协同，实现从坚 果到零食，从单一基地到全国化落子的供应链制造整体布局。 三只松鼠"主动掌控"产业链上游的动作还包括，通过与国际原料大农场的直采合作模式，在国内云南、广西、新疆、内蒙古、东北、安徽等多地建立坚果 果干原材料供给基地，锁定长周期价格，积极发挥规模集采效应。 在消费场景分化、行业普遍遭遇成本波动等挑战背景下，深剖三只松鼠的战略布局和业务本质，不难发现这一表现更多源于当下的行业特性与企业主动转 型的叠加效应。报告披露，经营业绩阶段性承压，主要源于坚果原料价格大幅上涨，企业2025年货节销售旺季结构性错档、主动调整销售结构及进军社区 新零售赛道的战略性投入等多方面因素。 数据之外，预告内容显示，2025年，三只松 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights that Mondelez China is launching a series of Chinese New Year gift boxes that integrate traditional culture and creative design [1] - Mondelez China is introducing a "custom gift box" option for the first time, allowing distributors to create personalized gift boxes based on regional preferences [1] Group 1 - Mondelez China is promoting multiple brands, including Oreo, Chips Ahoy, and others, through these new gift box offerings [1] - The new gift box initiative aims to meet the growing consumer demand for personalized and culturally relevant products [1] - The flexible packaging and product selection empower distributors to mix and match products to create unique New Year gift boxes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The snack giant Three Squirrels (300783.SZ) has struggled with its "high-end cost-performance" strategy, leading to a significant decline in expected profits for 2025, with net profit projected to drop by approximately 60% year-on-year [1][5]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, the company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 1.35 billion to 1.75 billion yuan, a decrease of about 2.73 billion to 2.33 billion yuan compared to the previous year, representing a year-on-year decline of 57.08% to 66.89% [5][6]. - The company reported a net profit of 1.61 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 570 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 52.91% and 78.57%, respectively [2][6]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be the worst in nearly four years, with projected net profits ranging from a loss of 260 million yuan to a profit of 140 million yuan [7]. Strategic Challenges - The company has faced challenges due to structural misalignment during peak sales seasons, significant increases in nut raw material prices, and strategic adjustments in sales structure, which have collectively contributed to profit declines [4][9]. - Despite the downturn, the company remains committed to its "high-end cost-performance" strategy, aiming for quality and differentiation [9]. Marketing and Sales Expenses - In 2024, the company spent 1.2 billion yuan on customer acquisition, and sales expenses exceeded 1.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 24% increase year-on-year [4][14]. - The high sales expenses are primarily attributed to platform service and promotional costs, which are closely linked to the company's reliance on online sales [15][16]. Comparison with Competitors - Competitors like Wancheng Group and Mingming are implementing "extreme cost-performance" strategies, achieving significant profit increases, while Three Squirrels' strategy has not yielded similar advantages [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][10]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, with a focus on four main investment themes: cost advantages, efficiency improvements, innovation-driven growth, and opportunities for recovery in distressed segments [3][10][14]. - The report highlights the increasing signals of a bottoming out in the liquor market, particularly for baijiu, and emphasizes the importance of sales performance during the Spring Festival [2][10]. - The report suggests a diversified approach to investment, recommending leading companies in various sub-sectors, including dairy, beverages, snacks, and restaurant supply chains [2][3][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor - Baijiu prices are stable with an upward trend, and the report emphasizes monitoring sales during the Spring Festival. Key recommendations include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with a focus on their market positioning and growth potential [2][10][11]. - The report anticipates a continued decline in production for smaller liquor companies, while larger firms are expected to manage inventory effectively [10][11]. Beer - The beer industry is experiencing healthy inventory levels, with expectations for demand recovery. Recommendations include Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer, focusing on their growth potential and market strategies [11][12]. Snacks - The report identifies strong growth potential in the konjac snack segment, recommending leading companies like Weidong and Yanjinpuzi for their innovative product offerings and competitive advantages [12][17]. Dairy - The dairy sector is advised to focus on leading companies like Yili, with expectations for steady demand recovery and improved profitability in 2026. The report notes the importance of managing inventory and product innovation [14][15]. Beverages - The beverage sector is characterized by a focus on inventory reduction during the off-season, with key recommendations for companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expected to benefit from market expansion and product innovation [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - Qiaqia Foods has experienced a decline in stock price and significant decreases in revenue and net profit for the year 2025, indicating potential challenges in its financial performance and market position [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On February 3, Qiaqia Foods' stock fell by 2.00%, trading at 23.48 yuan per share with a total market capitalization of 11.877 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has increased by 8.60% year-to-date, with a 3.71% rise over the last five trading days, 4.82% over the last twenty days, and 6.15% over the last sixty days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Qiaqia Foods reported a revenue of 4.501 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 168 million yuan, down 73.17% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, Qiaqia Foods has distributed a total of 4.693 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.654 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Qiaqia Foods was 54,300, a decrease of 5.84% from the previous period, with an average of 9,297 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 6.20% [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the third-largest shareholder, holding 3.9811 million shares, a decrease of 15.9915 million shares from the previous period [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, with a focus on four main investment themes: cost advantages, efficiency improvements, innovation-driven growth, and opportunities for recovery in distressed segments [3][10]. - The report highlights the increasing bottom signals in the liquor market, particularly for baijiu, and emphasizes the importance of sales performance during the Spring Festival [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor - Baijiu prices, particularly for Moutai, are stable with a slight increase, and attention is drawn to the sales rhythm during the Spring Festival. The report recommends Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao as top picks, while also suggesting to monitor other brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Wuliangye [2][10]. - The report anticipates a continued trend of small liquor companies exiting the market, with a projected production decline of 12.1% for baijiu in 2025 [10]. Beer - The beer industry is experiencing healthy inventory levels, with expectations for demand recovery. The report recommends Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer as key players to watch [11][10]. Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of strong alpha stocks in the snack sector, particularly focusing on konjac snacks, with companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi showing strong product innovation and competitive advantages [12][10]. Food Supply Chain - The food supply chain is entering a peak season for stocking and sales, with a focus on pre-prepared dishes. The report recommends leading companies like Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring, as well as companies that are expanding their channels like Qianwei Yangchun [13][14]. Dairy Products - The report suggests a cautious outlook for dairy companies due to competitive pressures, but highlights the potential for recovery in 2026, particularly for leading companies like Yili [14][10]. Beverages - The beverage sector is currently in a de-stocking phase, with stable preparations for the Spring Festival. The report continues to recommend companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, which are accelerating their national expansion [15][10].

Core Viewpoint - The snack giant Three Squirrels (300783.SZ) has seen its "high-end cost-performance" strategy fail after three years, leading to a significant decline in expected profits for 2025 [1][7]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, the company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 135 million to 175 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of approximately 60% [1][3]. - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 45 million to 65 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year decrease of around 80% [1][3]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 161 million yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 57 million yuan, both showing significant declines of 52.91% and 78.57% respectively compared to the previous year [4][11]. Strategic Challenges - The company attributes the profit decline to several factors, including structural misalignment during the sales peak season, significant increases in nut raw material prices, and proactive adjustments to the sales structure [5][6]. - Despite the downturn, Three Squirrels remains committed to its "high-end cost-performance" strategy, aiming for quality and differentiation [7]. Marketing and Sales Expenses - In 2024, the company spent 1.2 billion yuan on customer acquisition, and in the first three quarters of 2025, sales expenses exceeded 1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24% [2][12]. - The high sales expenses, primarily due to platform service and promotional costs, have significantly impacted profitability, with the net profit margin dropping to 1.97% [11][14]. Comparison with Competitors - Competitors like Wancheng Group and Mingming are implementing "extreme cost-performance" strategies, achieving substantial profit increases, while Three Squirrels' strategy has not yielded similar results [8].

除了经典品牌礼盒之外，亿滋还上市了如奥利奥"新年好运筒"这样的新奇礼盒，将传统文化中的求 签习俗转化为享用零食时的趣味互动，每根威化棒都承载吉祥祝福，寓意美味与马年好运相伴。亿滋旗 下太平结合当代人对仪式感与情绪价值的追求，推出"马上太平"新春礼盒。该礼盒以平安符为设计灵 感，将品牌"太平"寓意转化为可触摸的新春祝福。 随着消费者日益增长的新需求，亿滋中国首次呈现"自制礼盒"方案。该方案提供灵活多元的包装与 产品选择，赋能经销商根据地域需求，自由搭配旗下品牌产品，打造专属且满含心意的新年礼盒。这一 创新举措，彰显了亿滋中国对市场精细化、个性化需求的积极响应，旨在让消费者无论身处何地，每一 份新年祝福都能精准传达。 围绕线上消费习惯与社交传播特点，亿滋中国凭借卓越的产品设计和供应链能力，为各电商平台推 出差异化新春礼盒。天猫平台发布奥利奥"马年灯笼礼盒"和奥利奥"锦鲤灯笼礼盒"，搭配可亲手制作的 手工材料，适合家庭成员共同创作；京东平台推出奥利奥"马年生肖礼盒"与奥利奥"马年钱币礼盒"，以 烫金工艺与典雅设计，契合传统赠礼场景中对质感与寓意的追求；抖音平台上线奥利奥"发财福袋"与奥 利奥"财神拜拜礼盒"，以轻松 ...

Company and Industry Summary Company: Wei Long Key Financial Performance - Wei Long's combined assessment target for January-February 2026 is approximately 1.6 billion yuan, with 70%-80% completion achieved so far, and an expected shipment volume of about 400 million yuan in February, leading to a target achievement rate of over 90% [1][3] - Overall sales growth in January 2026 reached approximately 41%, with the shipment period extended to 25 days compared to the previous year [2][3] - The sales revenue for the konjac category in January 2026 was about 710 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase from 470 million yuan [8] Product Performance - The spicy strips category saw a year-on-year growth of about 15%, while the konjac and vegetable categories grew over 60% [2][4] - Gift box products performed better than expected during the 2026 Spring Festival, with popular price ranges from 9.9 yuan to 59.9 yuan, particularly the 29.9 yuan gift box [5] - The company plans to increase revenue from noodle products by approximately 5% in 2026, supported by new product launches and sales strategies [11] Marketing and Sales Strategies - Wei Long increased its market investment expenses by about 20% in January-February 2026 compared to the fourth quarter, focusing on advertising for konjac products [9] - The company is enhancing its sales strategies in traditional distribution channels and KA stores, with a focus on improving conversion rates and encouraging the sale of higher-priced products [6] - New SKUs, such as the porcini product, have been introduced into leading snack channels, contributing to the sales target [7] Competitive Landscape - Wei Long and its competitor Yan Jin increased their marketing expenditures during the Spring Festival, with Yan Jin's investment being notably higher [9] - The overall market share for the konjac snack market in 2025 was approximately 8 billion yuan, with Wei Long, Yan Jin, and Que Ya Chi holding over 65% of the market share [18] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the sales of gift box products will normalize in the coming quarters, with lower-priced boxes maintaining stable demand while higher-priced boxes may not sustain high sales [13] - Wei Long plans to strengthen its focus on the spicy strips category, but the investment strategy will depend on the growth of high-performing categories like konjac [14] Additional Insights - The average daily sales level for the "Hao Xiang Lai" stores in North China was about 400,000 yuan in Q4 2025, reflecting an 8% year-on-year decline, though the decline has narrowed [20][21] - The company is exploring ways to improve the sales performance of its seaweed products, with plans to increase market penetration and promotional efforts [17] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting Wei Long's financial performance, product strategies, competitive landscape, and future outlook in the snack food industry.