Group 1: Commodity Market Performance - On June 27, the domestic commodity futures market saw more gains than losses, with polysilicon leading with over a 3% increase, followed by焦煤 and industrial silicon with over 4% gains [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1377.97 points, up 5.01 points or 0.36% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1910.45 points, up 6.95 points or 0.37% [1] Group 2: Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - Polysilicon surged over 6% on June 27, driven by positive market sentiment and news of production cuts from major manufacturers in Xinjiang, impacting daily output by approximately 1500 to 1700 tons [2] - Industrial silicon also experienced a price rebound, closing above 8000 yuan per ton, but faces potential supply increases due to the resumption of production in the southwestern region [3] Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke continued their upward trend, with coking coal reaching a new high in over a month, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics due to production cuts amid safety inspections [3] - Despite the rebound, the overall supply-demand balance for coking coal and coke remains tilted towards oversupply, limiting the potential for further price increases [3] Group 4: Oil and Gold Market Trends - SC crude oil contracts fell for the fourth consecutive day, with a decline of 1.37%, influenced by improved market risk appetite and a weaker dollar [4] - Gold prices also decreased, with the Shanghai gold main contract dropping by 0.87%, although expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve provide some support [5]

Group 1 - The carbon market is experiencing a short-term price decline due to macroeconomic factors, but market activity and transaction volume are increasing, indicating robust development. Long-term expectations suggest tightening carbon emission quotas from 2026, pushing companies towards green energy and energy-saving technologies [2] - The electricity market reform is driven by the surge in renewable energy installations, leading to increased pressure on grid peak regulation. The reform aims for full market-based pricing for renewable energy, which may create revenue uncertainties and has led to a drop in demand since June [3] - Domestic polysilicon production remains stable at 90,000 to 100,000 tons per month, with annual capacity exceeding 3 million tons. However, high inventory levels and unstable profit expectations from photovoltaic power generation have resulted in weakened demand [4] Group 2 - Industrial silicon prices have unexpectedly dropped below 7,000 yuan per ton, below the optimal cost line for leading companies. Despite losses, production remains stable due to employment and loan pressures, with monthly production at 300,000 tons [5] - The lithium carbonate market is facing increasing oversupply, with projected supply of 1.6 million tons and demand of 1.3 million tons by 2025, leading to a surplus of 200,000 tons. Prices may continue to be under pressure in the short term [6] - The aluminum alloy futures market has low participation and limited delivery sources, with a focus on cost factors such as scrap aluminum prices and industrial silicon [10][12]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - This week, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon both increased. Industrial silicon rose by 8.66%, and polysilicon by 5.95%, due to the positive news of photovoltaic desert control [7]. - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to remain loose. The southwest region's electricity price is decreasing, and there are plans for large - scale enterprises to resume production. The northwest region also offers electricity subsidies [7]. - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is slowing down. Organic silicon production is being cut due to zero profit, polysilicon production is reduced, and the aluminum alloy industry is in a passive de - stocking phase [7]. - The demand for polysilicon is under pressure, with weak downstream demand and high inventory. However, the release of the photovoltaic desert control plan has improved market sentiment [7]. - Next week, industrial silicon is expected to experience basis regression, and the increase in futures prices may be limited. Polysilicon's basis is expected to return to the normal range [7]. - It is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillates in the range of 7600 - 8600, with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon oscillates in the range of 32000 - 34500, with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 36000 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices increased this week. After the news of photovoltaic desert control on Thursday, the market began to reflect the expectation of increased demand, and prices rose significantly [7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply will be loose, while demand from downstream industries is weakening. The overall demand for industrial silicon is expected to slow down [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply is in a state of reduced load operation, and demand is weak. However, the release of the photovoltaic desert control plan has improved market sentiment. Inventory is at a high level [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract of industrial silicon should be mainly in range - bound oscillation (7600 - 8600), with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon should be in short - term oscillation (32000 - 34500), with a stop - loss range of 30000 - 36000 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - This week, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon both decreased [8]. - The price of industrial silicon increased, the spot price rose, and the basis weakened. It is expected that the basis will return next week [13]. - The futures price of polysilicon rebounded, the basis weakened, the spot price rose, and the basis returned to normal [17]. - This week, the production and capacity utilization rate of industrial silicon increased due to the rainy season in the southwest region and the resumption plans of large enterprises. As of June 27, 2025, the national industrial silicon production was about 73,500 tons, and the national industrial silicon capacity utilization rate was 50.61% [23][25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Cost**: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon slightly decreased, the electricity price dropped, and the overall cost decreased due to government subsidies. Although enterprises are still in a loss state, the willingness to resume production during the rainy season has increased [27]. - **Inventory**: This week, the warehouse receipts of industrial silicon decreased, the social inventory increased, and the overall inventory slightly increased. The process of inventory reduction has been repeated, but the overall trend remains unchanged. As of June 27, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 53,234 lots, a decrease of 2386 lots; the total social inventory of metallic silicon was 571,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons [32][36]. - **Downstream Industry**: - **Organic Silicon**: The production and capacity utilization rate decreased. Enterprises chose to continue reducing production to support prices due to profit decline. As of June 27, 2025, the weekly production was 44,200 tons, a decrease of 800 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 67.17%, a decrease of 1.23% [38][42]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price decreased, the inventory increased, and the passive de - stocking continued. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to remain weak. As of June 27, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 20,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 26,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons [50][52]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Chip**: The silicon wafer price decreased, and the battery chip price remained flat. The overall demand for polysilicon was affected, which in turn affected the demand for industrial silicon. As of June 27, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.06 yuan/piece, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/piece; the battery chip price was 0.25 yuan/watt, unchanged from last week [57][59]. - **Polysilicon Production Cost**: This week, the cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) for polysilicon remained flat, and the price of industrial silicon decreased. Overall, the production cost remained stable, and the polysilicon production is expected to gradually decline. In May 2025, the total production of polysilicon plants in China was 97,355 tons, a decrease of 1447 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% [64][66].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Industrial silicon - Interval operation, upstream sell - hedge on rallies; Polysilicon - Neutral [2][8] - Inter - month spread: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Cross - variety: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Spot - futures: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Options: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] Core Views - Industrial silicon futures prices are relatively strong, affected by the rising sentiment of coking coal and the news of production cuts by a leading northwest enterprise. However, with increasing supply and high inventory, the rebound space is limited [1][2]. - Polysilicon futures rebounded, but the fundamentals are weak with high inventory, increasing supply after southwest restart, and possible decline in consumption. The market is easily affected by capital sentiment and policy disturbances [3][6]. Market Analysis - Industrial Silicon - On June 26, 2025, the main contract 2509 of industrial silicon futures opened at 7600 yuan/ton and closed at 7720 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 321342 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 27 was 53234 lots, a decrease of 29 lots from the previous day [1]. - Spot prices remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1]. - The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas on June 26 was 54.2 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons from the previous week. The inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 12.8 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons, and that in social delivery warehouses was 41.4 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons [1]. - The price of silicone DMC was 10300 - 10600 yuan/ton, and the price was temporarily stable, with mainly rigid - demand transactions [1]. Market Analysis - Polysilicon - On June 26, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures rebounded significantly, opening at 30745 yuan/ton and closing at 31715 yuan/ton, a 3.46% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 77132 lots, and the trading volume was 225035 lots [3]. - Spot prices remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 30.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 28.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 27.00 - 30.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 33.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, with the polysilicon inventory at 27.00 tons, a 3.05% increase, and the silicon wafer inventory at 20.11GW, a 7.30% increase. The weekly polysilicon output was 23600.00 tons, a decrease of 3.67%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.44GW, an increase of 4.10% [3]. Market Analysis - Silicon Wafer and Battery - Silicon wafer prices: Domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 0.87 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.23 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.02 yuan/piece [5]. - Battery prices: High - efficiency PERC182 battery was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery was 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery was 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - Component prices: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.70 yuan/W [5]. Factors to Monitor - The resumption of production and new capacity commissioning in the northwest and southwest regions [4]. - Changes in the operating rate of polysilicon enterprises [4]. - Policy disturbances [4]. - Macroeconomic and capital sentiment [4]. - The operating rate of silicone enterprises [4]. - The impact of industry self - discipline on upstream and downstream operations [8]. - The impact of futures listing on the spot market [8]. - The impact of capital sentiment [8]. - The impact of policy disturbances [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Macro and Stock Index - Domestic economic data shows marginal improvement, and six departments including the central bank have issued guidelines to support consumption, with a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market. The international Middle - East situation is short - term eased but still has the risk of recurrence. IC/IM maintains a deep discount. Short - sellers should choose the near - month contract to avoid basis fluctuations in the far - month contract, while long - term investors can focus on basis convergence opportunities. The long - IM and short - IH arbitrage portfolio may still have room, but beware of the callback pressure of small - cap stocks at high levels [2]. Crude Oil - The conflict between Israel and Iran has eased, and the risk premium of crude oil has shrunk significantly. The price has fallen sharply and is seeking support at the 500 - yuan/barrel level of the SC main contract. WTI main contract should focus on the support around $65/barrel [3]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell reiterated "not in a hurry to cut interest rates", but Trump's dissatisfaction has led to concerns about the Fed's policy continuity and independence. The weakening dollar supports gold, while the easing of the Middle - East situation weakens its short - term safe - haven demand. The current gold price is in a shock range, and attention should be paid to the US GDP and PCE data [4][5]. Silver - The internal policy divergence of the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has decreased, suppressing the short - term upward movement of precious metals. The demand growth in key areas of silver is slowing down, but it may have room for a supplementary rise compared with gold. Pay attention to the support at $34.8 - 35.0/ounce [6]. Chemicals - PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term. PVC, PP, and plastics still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term due to weak fundamentals. Soda ash is recommended to be treated with a bottom - shock idea, and glass is recommended to be treated with an interval - shock idea [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Agricultural Products - Corn is in an upward channel but may face short - term callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 2350 yuan/ton. Peanuts are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Cotton's upside space is limited. Bean II and soybean meal may test the platform support in the short term. Soybean oil may fluctuate in the short term. Hogs may fluctuate, and eggs may oscillate at a low level [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. Metals - Shanghai copper is waiting for new signals. Shanghai aluminum can be operated in the short term by aggressive investors or waited by conservative investors. Alumina shows a weak adjustment trend. Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate in the short term. Lithium carbonate may continue to be under pressure, and industrial silicon and polysilicon may oscillate at the bottom [29][30][31][32][33][34]. Black Metals - Stainless steel may fluctuate weakly at a low level. Rebar and hot - rolled coils can be considered to go long lightly at low levels. Iron ore may oscillate in the short term, and coal may also oscillate in the short term [35][36][37][38][39]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Situation**: Domestic economic data improves marginally, and policies support consumption and long - term funds entry. Internationally, the Middle - East situation is unstable [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Different stock index futures have different trading volumes, basis rates, and capital flows. The style differentiation continues [2]. - **Reference Views**: Provide suggestions for short - sellers, long - term investors, and arbitrageurs, and remind of risks [2]. Crude Oil - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between Israel and Iran eases, and the risk premium of crude oil shrinks [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors lead to price fluctuations, and the price is sensitive to external factors. The summer peak season supports the price to some extent [3]. - **Reference Views**: Focus on the support level of WTI [3]. Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: Powell's statement and Trump's dissatisfaction affect the dollar and gold. The easing of the Middle - East situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Gold price is supported by the weak dollar and interest - rate cut expectations, and shows a short - term bearish signal [4][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on key economic data and the support level of gold [5]. Silver - **Market Price**: The price of spot silver shows a narrow - range shock [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Policy divergence in the Fed, slowing demand growth in key areas, and geopolitical factors affect silver price [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Silver may have room for a supplementary rise, and pay attention to the support level [6]. Chemicals PTA and Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol in East China are the same, with a decline and a certain basis [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: Middle - East geopolitical easing affects the cost. There are device overhauls and restarts, and the demand is weak [7][8]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval fluctuation [7][8]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC are stable [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate changes, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreases [9]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [9]. PP - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of PP decline [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate rises, demand decreases, and inventory increases [10]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [10][11]. Plastics - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of plastics have different trends [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate decreases slightly, demand has a small change, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, inventory increases, and demand is average [13]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term bottom - shock [13][14]. Glass - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreases slightly, inventory decreases slightly, and demand is weak [15]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [15]. Rubber - **Market Price**: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by crude oil and trade policies, the supply is loose, and the demand is affected by the trade war [16]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock and focus on downstream开工率 [16][17]. Methanol - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions change [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Futures price rises, port inventory increases, supply increases, and demand has different trends [18]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock and focus on Iranian supply and domestic inventory [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term callback and focus on the support level [20]. Peanuts - **Spot Price**: The prices in different regions are provided [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The expected increase in planting area may put pressure on the price, and the current supply - demand is weak [21]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [21]. Cotton - **Spot Information**: The prices of domestic and foreign cotton are provided [22]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report is positive, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose, with short - term supply - demand contradictions [22]. - **Reference Views**: Limited upside space [22]. Bean II - **Spot Information**: The import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The Middle - East conflict eases, and the weather affects the market [23]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [23]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [24]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by macro - policies, international factors, and domestic supply - demand [24][25]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [25]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [26]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by international and domestic supply - demand factors [26]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [26]. Hogs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions change [27]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the price, and the price may oscillate [27]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term oscillation, and focus on the slaughter situation [27]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions decline [28]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is still excessive, and demand is weak in the off - season [28]. - **Reference Views**: Low - level oscillation, and focus on farmers' culling willingness [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of electrolytic copper rises, and the import index falls [29]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical and policy factors affect the market, and the copper market is in a complex situation [29]. - **Reference Views**: Wait for new signals [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The price of aluminum rises [30]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical risks, supply - demand situation, and inventory level affect the price [30]. - **Reference Views**: Different strategies for different types of investors [30]. Alumina - **Spot Information**: The price of alumina falls [31]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is excessive, demand is average, and inventory is high [31]. - **Reference Views**: Weak adjustment [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The price is stable [32]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost support and supply - demand contradictions affect the price [32]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rise [33]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to weak fundamentals and high inventory [33]. - **Reference Views**: Considered as an oversold rebound, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [33]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon fall [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [34]. Polysilicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory is high [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and consider profit - taking for short - sellers [34]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel rises [35]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weak, supply is high, and demand is weak [35]. - **Reference Views**: Weak shock at a low level [35]. Rebar - **Spot Information**: The price of rebar in Shanghai falls [36]. - **Market Analysis**: The market shows a shock trend, with cost and demand factors [36]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [36]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Spot Information**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai is stable [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is stabilizing, with cost and demand factors [37]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The prices of iron ore indexes and varieties are provided [38]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors, and external factors affect the price [38]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and production resumption [38]. Coal - **Spot Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke change [39]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal and coke [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and policies [39].

Report Information - Report Date: June 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The main price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,720 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.66%. The trading volume was 1,087,621 lots, and the open interest was 321,342 lots, a net increase of 14,698 lots [4]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,300 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was also 8,300 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. - The improvement in fundamentals was limited. In the third week of June, the industrial silicon output was 76,600 tons, increasing for four consecutive weeks, and the monthly output exceeded 320,000 tons. Domestic demand remained at 260,000 tons, and monthly exports remained at 50,000 tons. Recently, the expectation of polysilicon production cuts was disappointed, bringing a marginal increase in demand. The futures warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled and出库, dropping to 266,300 tons [4]. - The spot price remained stable, and the sentiment in the commodity market improved. The technical breakthrough and production cut news resonated, stimulating a sharp intraday rise in industrial silicon. However, the production cuts had not been implemented, and the high inventory was digested slowly. The improvement in fundamentals lagged significantly behind the price rebound. The upward resistance on the disk increased marginally, and the fluctuations intensified. It was recommended to operate cautiously with a slight bullish bias [4]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,720 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.66%. The trading volume was 1,087,621 lots, and the open interest was 321,342 lots, a net increase of 14,698 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,300 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was also 8,300 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Future Outlook: The improvement in fundamentals was limited. The production increased for four consecutive weeks, and the high inventory was digested slowly. The improvement in fundamentals lagged behind the price rebound. The upward resistance on the disk increased, and the fluctuations intensified. It was recommended to operate cautiously with a slight bullish bias [4]. 2. Market News - On June 26, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 53,234 lots, a net decrease of 29 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, the export volume of industrial silicon in May 2025 was 53,840 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 22.48% [5].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 7720 | 165 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 321342 | 14698 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -40433 | 8109 广期所仓单(日,手) | 53263 | -307 | | | 7-8月合约价差 | 10 | -5 | | | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 8200 | 50 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 8700 | 0 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 480 | -115 DMC现货价(日,元/吨) | 10560 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 硅石平均价(日,元/吨) | 410 | 0 石油焦平均价(日,元/吨) | 1610 | 0 | | | 精煤平均价(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 木片平均价(日,元/吨) | 540 | 0 | | | 石墨电极(400mm)出场价(日,元/吨) | 12250 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures price rebounded on June 25, 2025, while the spot price remained stable. The fundamentals are still weak, with an increase in supply and limited growth in terminal consumption. The recent strong performance of the futures market is mainly due to the expected increase in polysilicon production and market sentiment. Attention should be paid to potential industry policies [1]. - The polysilicon futures market maintained a volatile pattern on June 25, 2025, and the spot price remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased slightly, and the production increased weekly. However, the consumption side weakened, leading to a weak fundamental situation [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rebounded. The main contract 2509 opened at 7,450 yuan/ton and closed at 7,555 yuan/ton, up 1.55% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract was 306,644 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 26 was 53,263 lots, a decrease of 307 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8,000 - 8,300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 8,400 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of organic silicon DMC rebounded slightly, with a quotation of 10,300 - 10,600 yuan/ton. The organic silicon industry has high production capacity pressure, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement [1]. - **Strategy** - For unilateral trading, use range - bound operations, and upstream producers can sell hedging at high prices when appropriate. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 25, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2508 maintained a volatile pattern, opening at 31,000 yuan/ton and closing at 30,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.59% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 80,107 lots (72,286 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 146,141 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 30.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 28.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 27.00 - 30.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 33.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased slightly, with the latest polysilicon inventory at 26.20 (a week - on - week decrease of 4.70%), and the silicon wafer inventory at 18.74GW (a week - on - week decrease of 3.10%). The weekly polysilicon production was 24,500.00 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.94%), and the silicon wafer production was 12.90GW (a week - on - week decrease of 1.53%) [3]. - **Strategy** - The futures market continued to be weak, and the spot trading was average. The fundamentals are weak due to the resumption of production in the southwest during the wet season and the planned start - up in some northwest bases. For unilateral trading, use range - bound operations and sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.89 yuan/piece (- 0.01 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.23 yuan/piece (- 0.03 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.03 yuan/piece (- 0.02 yuan/piece) [5]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.70 - 0.70 yuan/W [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply of industrial silicon will remain loose as southwest region's electricity prices are expected to drop further, leading to potential restarts of large and some small - medium enterprises, and Xinjiang's Ili region will continue electricity subsidies [2]. - Demand from the three major downstream industries for industrial silicon is showing a slowdown trend. Organic silicon may see a slight increase in production next week, which is positive for demand; however, the polysilicon industry is in a reduced - load operation state, and the aluminum alloy industry is in passive de - stocking, both having a negative impact on demand [2]. - For mid - to long - term operations, a high - selling strategy is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7,555 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest is 306,644 lots, up 13,217 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 is - 48,542 lots, a decrease of 347 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts are 53,570 lots, down 614 lots [2]. - The price spread between the July - August contracts is 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the Si main contract is 595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the DMC spot price is 10,560 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,610 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton [2]. - The ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 559,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, an increase of 2,211.36 tons; the monthly export volume is 71.51 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 45,000 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.25 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars/kg [2]. - The monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons, an increase of 7,624.27 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 68.4%, an increase of 2.12 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of aluminum alloy is 20,187,850 tons, an increase of 164,500 tons; the monthly export volume is 11.7 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Hesheng Silicon Industry's Q1 2025 report shows that its main business income is 5.228 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.47%; net profit attributable to the parent is 260 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 50.81%; non - recurring profit after deduction is 216 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 58.49%; the debt ratio is 62.56%, investment income is - 599,550 yuan, financial expenses are 235 million yuan, and the gross profit margin is 14.62% [2]. - The US Senate Republican leader Thune plans to vote on Trump's "Beautiful Big Bill" on Friday, which restricts new energy and affects the demand of the new energy industry [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年6月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.1万吨，环比有所增加2.53%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.1万吨，环比减少13.41%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅 库存为26.2万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为 72800吨，处于高位，有机硅生产利润为82元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率 为68.4%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为2.38万吨，处于高 位，进口亏损为785元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为657.26元/吨，再生铝 开工率为53.6%，还比减少0.55%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样 ...