Report Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Others - None [3] - Polysilicon: Unilateral - Short - term range operation; Others - None [6] Core Views - Industrial silicon futures prices dropped on July 31, 2025, and the current price is relatively reasonably valued based on fundamentals, but supply is expected to increase, and the market is affected by policies and sentiment [1][3] - Polysilicon futures prices also fell sharply on the same day, with stable spot prices. The market is mainly affected by news and capital sentiment, and the specific details of industry storage and mergers are yet to be determined [3] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On July 31, 2025, the industrial silicon futures main contract 2509 opened at 9090 yuan/ton and closed at 8760 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.26% from the previous settlement. The closing position was 212932 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50644 lots, an increase of 798 lots from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The industrial silicon spot price declined. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9700 - 9900 (- 200) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9900 - 10400 (- 100) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 9100 - 9200 (- 200) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 9000 - 9200 (- 200) yuan/ton [1] - **Production**: In July 2025, industrial silicon production was 338,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative production was 2.2112 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% [1] - **Inventory**: On July 31, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 540,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5000 tons. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse inventory was 119,000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 421,000 tons, an increase of 6000 tons from the previous week [1] - **Consumption**: The organic silicon DMC quotation was 12100 - 12700 (0) yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction center was around 12300 yuan/ton. The demand matching degree decreased due to sufficient raw material inventory of downstream enterprises [2] Polysilicon - **Futures**: On July 31, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2509 opened at 52500 yuan/ton and closed at 49130 yuan/ton, a change of - 7.81% from the previous trading day. The position was 126989 lots, and the trading volume was 565838 lots [3] - **Spot**: The polysilicon spot price remained stable. N - type material was 44.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - **Inventory and Production**: Polysilicon factory inventory decreased by 5.76% month - on - month to 22.90, silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.57% month - on - month to 18.15GW. Polysilicon weekly production was 26500.00 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%, and silicon wafer production was 11.00GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.79% [5] - **Prices of Related Products**: Domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.20 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.55 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.35 (0.00) yuan/piece. High - efficiency PERC182 battery cells were 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.30 (0.01) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W. PERC182mm mainstream transaction price was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [5] Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Neutral - Others: No specific strategies [3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Others: No specific strategies [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is the Industrial Silicon August Monthly Report, dated July 31, 2025, and is a research report on the non - ferrous sector [14][25][34] Group 2: Price Data Industrial Silicon Spot Prices - As of July 29, 2025, the East China oxygen - blowing 553 spot price was 9,800 yuan/ton, down 2.97% from the previous weekend and up 15.98% from the end of last month; the Kunming oxygen - blowing 553 spot price was 9,800 yuan/ton, down 2.00% from the previous weekend and up 15.29% from the end of last month; the Tianjin oxygen - blowing 553 spot price was 9,650 yuan/ton, down 3.02% from the previous weekend and up 15.57% from the end of last month; the East China 421 spot price was 10,150 yuan/ton, down 1.93% from the previous weekend and up 15.34% from the end of last month; the Kunming 421 spot price was 10,200 yuan/ton, down 0.97% from the previous weekend and up 3.03% from the end of last month; the Tianjin 421 spot price was 10,100 yuan/ton, down 1.46% from the previous weekend and up 14.12% from the end of last month [14] Other Important Spot Prices - The Tianjin 99 - silicon price was 9,600 yuan/ton, down 3.03% from the previous weekend and up 16.36% from the end of last month; the Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 9,100 yuan/ton, down 3.70% from the previous weekend and up 15.19% from the end of last month [14] Downstream Product Prices - The price of polycrystalline silicon N - type dense material was 45.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous weekend and up 35.82% from the end of last month; the DMC price was 12,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous weekend and up 19.14% from the end of last month; the aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,100 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from the previous weekend and unchanged from the end of last month [14] Warehouse Receipt Data - The registered warehouse receipt volume was 49,846 sheets, up 0.27% from the previous weekend and down 5.01% from the end of last month [14] Group 3: Supply and Demand Data 2025 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the supply and demand of industrial silicon showed fluctuations. For example, in January, the supply was 35.52 tons, and the consumption was 35.52 tons, with a balance of 0.00 tons; in February, the supply was 32.69 tons, the consumption was 32.78 tons, with a balance of - 0.09 tons; in July, the supply was 37.65 tons, the consumption was 37.61 tons, with a balance of 0.04 tons [15] July Regional Production - In July 2025, Xinjiang's production was 154,300 tons, accounting for 45.01% of the total, with a year - to - date cumulative production of 1,199,480 tons; Yunnan's production was 40,150 tons, accounting for 11.71%, with a year - to - date cumulative production of 117,730 tons; Sichuan's production was 50,760 tons, accounting for 14.81%, with a year - to - date cumulative production of 141,790 tons; Inner Mongolia's production was 43,700 tons, accounting for 12.75%, with a year - to - date cumulative production of 296,760 tons [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, recent price fluctuations are due to rising raw material coal prices and changes in supply - demand. The market is expected to remain volatile with a neutral stance on the single - side strategy [1][2][3]. - For polysilicon, the futures market is affected by the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry, with a certain deviation from the spot fundamentals. There is a risk of chasing high prices, and the recommended strategy is to sell - hedge at high prices and buy put options [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose. The main contract 2509 opened at 9500 yuan/ton and closed at 9285 yuan/ton, a change of 200 yuan/ton (2.20%) from the previous settlement. The closing position of the 2509 main contract was 242,677 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 49,846 lots, a change of - 236 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9900 - 10100 (200) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 10100 - 10400 (100) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in multiple regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and Xinjiang also rose, while the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - Affected by the rising price of raw material coal, the cost of silicon coal was strongly supported, driving up the prices of silicon coal in many regions. For example, the price of non - caking silicon coal in Xinjiang increased by 50 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, it increased by 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 12100 - 12700 (- 50) yuan/ton. The supply in the silicone market was contracting, and manufacturers' willingness to maintain prices increased significantly [2]. - **Strategy** - The recent market fluctuations have increased, but the fundamentals have changed little. It is expected that the market will remain volatile. - Single - side: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 51,800 yuan/ton and closing at 54,705 yuan/ton, a change of 8.87% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 164,490 lots (140,638 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 565,243 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. N - type material was 44.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 24.30, a month - on - month change of - 2.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 17.87GW, a month - on - month change of 11.55%. The weekly polysilicon output was 25,500.00 tons, a month - on - month change of 10.87%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.20GW, a month - on - month change of 0.90% [4]. - In terms of silicon wafers, domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.20 (0.05) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.55 (0.05) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.35 (0.05) yuan/piece [4]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (- 0.01) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (- 0.01) yuan/W [5]. - According to the data released by the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feeding materials this week was 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.64%. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 44,000 - 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 44,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.68% [6]. - From the perspective of supply and demand, the total polysilicon output in July is expected to be close to 110,000 tons, and there is still a large possibility of growth in August. In July, the start - up of silicon wafer factories was relatively weak. With the rise in silicon wafer prices, some enterprises had preliminary plans to start furnaces, and the implementation needs further observation. The supply - demand fundamentals were weak [6]. - According to the exchange announcement, non - futures company members or customers' single - day opening volume on the polysilicon futures PS2509 contract should not exceed 500 lots, and on the PS2510, PS2511, PS2512, and PS2601 contracts, it should not exceed 2,000 lots respectively [6]. - **Strategy** - Currently, the polysilicon futures market is mainly affected by the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry, and there is a certain deviation from the spot fundamentals in the short term. The industry's acquisition and merger plan is still being promoted, and there is no clear conclusion yet. The futures are easily affected by news. From a valuation perspective, a price of 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton already gives the industry good profits, and the risk of chasing high prices is relatively large. The market fluctuations are large, and the futures position is large. After the exchange's position limit, the change in position can also easily cause market fluctuations. Investors need to pay attention to risk management. - Single - side: Sell - hedge at high prices; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: Buy put options [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 31, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity's trend is affected by factors such as macro - economic policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] - **Silver**: Experiences a high - level decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: The implementation of US copper import tariffs puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Shows a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][15][17] - **Lead**: An increase in inventory puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][21][25] - **Aluminum**: Experiences a slight oscillation; Alumina's price weakens; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum's trend strength is 0, alumina's is - 1, and casting aluminum alloy's is 0 [2][27][29] - **Nickel**: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Has a wide - range oscillation, and the mine - end disturbance has not materialized, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][35][37] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sentiment weakens, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] Energy - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, shows a relatively strong oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The sentiment is realized, with a wide - range oscillation. Both have a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55] - **Power Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price stabilizes with an oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60] - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend continues, and it remains strong in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's futures price shows a relatively strong oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [2][4][52] Chemicals - **PTA**: Supported by cost, with a positive spread in monthly contracts [2] - **MEG**: The unilateral trend remains weak, with a reverse spread in monthly contracts [2] - **Rubber**: Oscillates [2][32] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Weak in the short - term, but the downside space narrows [2][34] - **Asphalt**: Follows the strong upward trend of crude oil with small - step increases [2][36] - **LLDPE**: The trend still faces pressure [2][38] - **PP**: The spot price oscillates with light trading volume [2][39] - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to delivery pressure [2][40] - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates weakly [2][41] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet remains stable [2][43] - **Methanol**: Oscillates under pressure [2][44] - **Urea**: The pressure gradually increases [2][46] - **Styrene**: Profits are compressed [2][48] - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [4][49] - **PVC**: Weakly oscillates in the short - term [4][50] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Supported in the short - term by the positive sentiment of crude oil and macro - economy [4][59] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress [4][59] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans close lower, limiting the rebound of domestic soybean meal [4][61] - **Soybean**: Oscillates weakly [4][61] - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [4][63] - **Sugar**: Oscillates within an interval [4][65] - **Cotton**: The sentiment cools down, and Zhengzhou cotton futures decline [4][66] - **Eggs**: The spot price weakens [4][68] - **Hogs**: Attention should be paid to whether the early - month spot expectations can be realized [4][69] - **Peanuts**: The old crop has support at the bottom [4][70] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 short positions [4][53] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Oscillate in the short - term [4][56] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillates at a low level with limited upward momentum [4][57] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillates relatively strongly [4][58] - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][61]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2][3][4][5] Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract opened higher and then followed the coking coal futures to fluctuate lower. Spot prices gradually increased by 100 - 200 yuan per ton. Considering potential policies and production - cut plans, prices may rebound. It is advisable to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options. Also, pay attention to the impact of environmental inspections on production and control positions in the 09 contract [1] Polysilicon - Although polysilicon prices have risen, the current reality does not support a significant price increase. Attention should be paid to future production - cut plans to reach supply - demand balance. When volatility is low, consider buying straddles/put options and control positions in the 09 contract [2] Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash market is in an obvious oversupply situation, and there is no growth expectation for demand. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and upstream factory load regulation. The glass market is in the off - season, with weak demand. The industry needs capacity clearance, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and control risks [4] Logs - The log futures market is affected by weak demand and fluctuates repeatedly. Last week, inventory decreased, but this week's expected increase in arrivals will still put pressure on the spot market. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy expectations [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - On July 30, the prices of various types of industrial silicon increased, with the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon rising to 10,000 yuan per ton, a 2.04% increase; the basis also increased, with the basis of oxygen - passing SI5530 increasing by 58.89% [1] Inter - monthly Spreads - The spreads between different contracts changed significantly. For example, the spread between 2508 - 2509 increased by 90.91% [1] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 30.08 tons. Production in Xinjiang decreased by 20.55%, while production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 9.35% and 145.65% respectively. Organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and recycled aluminum alloy production all increased [1] Inventory Changes - Xinjiang and Yunnan's inventories increased, while Sichuan's inventory decreased. Social inventory decreased by 2.19% to 53.50 tons, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.47% [1] Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 44,500 yuan per ton. The basis of N - type material decreased by 90.59% [2] Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads - The main contract of polysilicon opened higher and fluctuated up, with some contracts hitting the daily limit. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the spread between "continuous one - continuous two" decreasing by 76.00% [2] Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 10.87% to 2.55 tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 tons, imports increased by 16.59%, and exports increased by 5.96% [2] Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 2.41% to 24.30 tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 11.55% [2] Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 16.95% [4] Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of soda ash in various regions remained unchanged. The price of soda ash 2505 increased slightly, while the price of soda ash 2509 decreased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 10.64% [4] Production and Sales Volumes - Soda ash production decreased by 1.28% to 72.38 tons, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.76% to 15.90 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.47% to 90,490 tons [4] Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 4.70% to 6189.00 ten - thousand cases, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.15% to 186.46 tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 21.86% to 30.05 tons [4] Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4] Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures fluctuated. The price of the 2509 contract decreased by 0.60% to 825 yuan per cubic meter. The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [5] Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged, and the import theoretical cost remained unchanged [5] Supply (Monthly) - Port shipments increased by 2.12% to 176.0 ten - thousand cubic meters, and the number of departing ships decreased by 8.62% [5] Inventory (Weekly) - National log inventory decreased by 3.65% to 317.00 ten - thousand cubic meters [5] Demand (Weekly) - The average daily log出库 volume increased by 3% to 6.41 ten - thousand cubic meters [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: Macro - expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Macro - sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It experiences wide - range fluctuations, and the disturbances at the mine end have not materialized [2][9] - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment has weakened [2][12] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2][12] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,720 yuan, down 80 yuan from the previous day; the stainless - steel main contract was 12,920 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 153,323 lots, an increase of 33,388 lots from the previous day, and the stainless - steel main contract was 153,403 lots, an increase of 14,642 lots from the previous day [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Events include Canada's Ontario province potentially halting nickel exports to the US, the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in Indonesia's mining quota policy, and production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting parks [4][5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 70,600 yuan, down 240 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 792,909 lots, an increase of 48,749 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 272,753 lots, a decrease of 27,867 lots from the previous day [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. Greenbushes and Pilbara released their production and sales data and 2026 fiscal - year plans [9][10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,285 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 605,161 lots; the open interest was 242,677 lots, a decrease of 34,057 lots from the previous day. The closing price of the PS2509 contract was 54,705 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,900 yuan from the previous day [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: The US will partially cancel trade tariffs on certain small - scale solar equipment imported from China [13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1 [14]

中证金牛座 智能 工业硅期货大涨 解读产业链与市场趋势 6月4日以来,工业硅期货价格节节攀升,主力合约一 度从7015元/吨一路升至7月23日10060元/吨,累计 最大涨幅为43.41%,此后出现震荡调整,最新维持 在9300元/吨附近。不到两个月时间，工业硅期货接 连升破多个整数关口,强势表现引发市场关注。 ┣涨值因: 宏观及政策面持续利好刺激 • 自身基本面出现改善 • 用途: 又名金属硅、结晶硅,是生产有机硅、多晶 硅及铝合金的重要原材料 2.7吨-3吨硅石 些需 2吨碳质还原剂 生产1吨 约需 工业硅 0.1吨-0.13吨电极 消耗约1.1万度-1.4万度电 产业链情况: 有机硅 才光伏硅片/电池 石英矿 ⇒ 工业硅 -> 多晶硅 > 半导体晶圆 ，铝合金 供需结构: 全球工业硅产能合计约为880.7万吨,同比增 长3.2%,其中我国的工业硅产能占据绝对优 2024年 势,比重为82.6%。 我国工业硅总产能达727.7万吨,连续三年 2024 年底 保持增长;国内工业硅产量达到470.8万吨 中国工业硅国内表观消费量为401.25万吨, 2024年 同比增长25.8%，已连续5年实现正增长 下游消 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of industrial silicon has a potential increasing trend due to the resumption of production in some southwestern regions, while the total demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a high - short strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9285 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the main contract position is 242,677 lots, down 34,057 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 74,088 lots, up 5,853 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,113 lots; the industrial silicon price spread from August to September is - 45 yuan, up 15 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 10,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis is 715 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon import volume is 2211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 65.11%, down 6.27 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a clarification announcement stating that some self - media reports about anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, especially in the polysilicon sector, are seriously inconsistent with the actual situation. The clarification may be related to the rumored acquisition and storage event in the polysilicon industry. Trump announced that a 50% tariff will be imposed on imported copper starting from August 1 [2] Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, in the northwest Ili region, large - scale production enterprises maintain the existing production rhythm; in the southwest region, some areas are resuming production, and overall output has a potential increasing trend. On the demand side, the demand from the three major downstream industries for industrial silicon is slowing down [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].