Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 0.69%, 2.04%, and 3.17% respectively as of July 18, marking a new high for the year for the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - The market is shifting from a "blue-chip dominance" to a "blue-chip and growth resonance," indicating that the activity of growth stocks may attract more incremental capital, providing momentum for the continuation of the market trend [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metals sector led the market, with strong performances from lithium and rare earth stocks. Several gold industry listed companies forecast positive earnings for the first half of 2025, with Zijin Mining expecting a year-on-year net profit increase of approximately 54%, marking its best first-half performance since listing [4] - Silver prices have risen significantly, with a year-to-date increase of about 35%, surpassing gold's 28.87% rise, making silver one of the best-performing asset classes this year. International investment banks have raised silver price forecasts due to structural supply shortages and strong investment demand [4] - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to enter a new upward cycle, supported by a recovering global economy and a declining dollar, with investment opportunities in this sector remaining favorable [4] - The outlook for silver remains bullish in the short term due to dual drivers from precious metals and commodity attributes, with a long-term positive view maintained amid factors like dollar and U.S. Treasury value adjustments and rising demand from new energy sectors [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold and Silver**: This week, London gold rose 0.09%, and London silver rose 2.05%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 89.4 to 87.5. Gold prices remained in a narrow - range oscillation. Given the strong US economic data, gold is hard to show a trend. Silver is relatively stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio may continue to correct. If silver breaks through 9000 yuan/kg, it may reach around 40 dollars in the third quarter, but there is downward pressure in the second half of the year due to weakening silver paste demand [10]. - **Copper**: Downstream buyers purchase at low prices, and the macro - sentiment improves marginally, supporting price increases. Domestically, copper inventories decrease, and the spot premium strengthens. Globally, total inventories increase mainly due to rising overseas inventories. Uncertainties exist in the macro - environment, but there is strong bottom support. It is recommended to hold long - position cautiously and conduct calendar spread arbitrage [88]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Performance - Gold prices were in a narrow - range oscillation with a slight increase. Silver broke through 9000 yuan/kg, and the gold - silver ratio continued to decline [10]. - The trading volume and open interest of gold and silver futures showed different changes. COMEX and ETF positions also had corresponding adjustments [11]. Price Spread - **Overseas**: The London spot - COMEX gold and silver spreads had specific changes. For example, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 15.55 dollars/ounce [16][19]. - **Domestic**: Gold and silver's domestic term spreads and inter - month spreads were at different positions in the historical range. For example, the gold term spread was at the lower end of the historical range [22]. Inventory and Position - COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, and the registered warrant ratios changed. Gold and silver futures inventories also had corresponding adjustments. ETF positions of gold decreased, while those of silver increased [42][44][54][56]. Core Drivers - The correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10YTIPS continued to decline [65]. Copper Market Performance - LME copper inventories increased significantly, and the 0 - 3 spot discount widened. Domestic copper inventories decreased, and the spot premium strengthened [88][89]. - Four - market copper volatility increased, with COMEX copper volatility reaching around 33% and LME copper at around 7% [94]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The tightness of copper concentrate supply weakened, the spot TC increased marginally, and the smelting loss narrowed. The refined - scrap spread recovered but was still below the break - even point [88]. - **Demand**: In the domestic consumption off - season, orders from processing enterprises weakened marginally in July, but low prices attracted downstream and end - users to buy. The apparent consumption was good, with power grid investment and the growth of air - conditioner and new - energy vehicle production providing support [88]. Trading Strategies - Hold long - position cautiously for single - side trading and conduct calendar spread arbitrage due to the decrease in domestic inventories and the strengthening of the spot premium [88].

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical risks in Washington and the Middle East, as well as escalating trade tensions between the US and Europe [1] Geopolitical Risks - The turmoil in the Middle East, particularly the Houthi attacks on Iraqi oil fields, has led to a daily drop in oil production by 140,000 to 150,000 barrels, impacting the global energy market [4] - The issuance of missile safety alerts by the US Embassy in Israel has heightened risk-averse sentiment among investors [4] Federal Reserve Policy Divergence - Internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve are causing market fluctuations, with hawkish member Kugler opposing rate cuts while dovish member Waller advocates for a 25 basis point cut in July [2][5] - Market expectations for a July rate cut have risen from 28% to 30%, while the probability of a September cut remains at 54% [2] Trade Tensions - The escalation of the US-EU trade war, including a 40% tariff on EU steel starting August 1, has begun to impact the precious metals supply chain [6] - A factory owner in Dongguan reported a 50% drop in orders for 18K gold necklaces destined for the US, resulting in significant inventory losses [6] Market Volatility - A rumor regarding former President Trump's consideration to fire Fed Chair Powell caused gold prices to spike by $50 to a three-week high of $3,377 before dropping back down, illustrating the extreme volatility in the gold market [8] - Gold has experienced nine instances of daily fluctuations exceeding $35 since July [8] Precious Metals Price Movements - Platinum prices have surged to a two-month high of $1,408, driven by miner strikes in South Africa and the booming hydrogen vehicle market, while silver prices have declined due to weak global factory orders [8] - Domestic gold prices in Shanghai opened at 771.2 yuan per gram, slightly down from the previous day, while retail prices for gold jewelry are significantly higher due to additional costs [9] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, purchasing between 37 to 39 tons monthly, with China's central bank being the most aggressive, raising its reserves to 2,298 tons over the past eight months [9] - Some Nordic pension funds have increased their gold allocations to 14%, indicating a shift towards gold as a hedge against currency devaluation [9]

Group 1 - The A-share non-ferrous metal sector continues to perform strongly, with the industrial precious metal ETF rising by 3.02%, reaching a new high for the year [1] - Multiple international investment banks have raised their silver price forecasts, with Bank of America predicting silver prices could reach $40 per ounce by the end of 2025 or early 2026, driven by record industrial demand, particularly in the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors [2][3] - The current surge in silver prices is driven by two main factors: a significant increase in industrial demand due to the acceleration of global energy transition and an influx of safe-haven funds amid rising geopolitical risks and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] Group 2 - Silver-related stocks in the A-share market have seen impressive performance, with companies like Hunan Silver hitting a five-year high and the silver non-ferrous sector experiencing a 6.99% increase [4] - The physical investment market for silver is also booming, with sales of silver bars and silver ingots increasing by over 40% year-on-year, and banks reporting high demand for silver wealth management products [4] - Analysts have differing views on the future of silver prices, with some optimistic about a potential challenge to the historical high of $50 per ounce due to ongoing supply tightness, while others expect the average silver price to remain around $36 in the third quarter, indicating limited upside [5][6] Group 3 - The silver market is currently in a state of tight supply and demand balance, with industrial demand and financial attributes driving prices higher; despite potential short-term technical adjustments, strong demand from sectors like photovoltaics and renewable energy, along with expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, are likely to support high silver prices in the medium to long term [7]

Group 1 - The inheritance dispute within the Wahaha family has escalated following the death of founder Zong Qinghou, with multiple illegitimate children involved in lawsuits over asset inheritance [2] - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new highs, driven by strong corporate earnings and positive retail sales data [2] - Foreign investment sentiment towards A-shares is optimistic, with sectors like computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industry showing significant growth [2] Group 2 - Global silver prices have surged, reaching over $39 per ounce, driven by both safe-haven demand and industrial needs, with optimism surrounding economic recovery and the development of the new energy sector [3] - The U.S. cryptocurrency legislation is facing challenges, with market volatility affecting related stocks and Bitcoin prices amid ongoing legislative discussions [3] - JPMorgan's analyst suggests that the independence of the Federal Reserve is a "false proposition," indicating potential market impacts from political pressures and interest rate expectations [3] Group 3 - China Merchants Bank's analyst predicts that the RMB is likely to stabilize and trend upwards in the second half of the year, while gold prices may reach new highs due to the influence of U.S. policies [4] - The "Haihui International" pyramid scheme has seen the arrest of a key suspect, with involved funds exceeding 10 billion yuan and illegal profits over 5 billion yuan [5] - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is involved in a significant case regarding missing deposits, with evidence exchange occurring ahead of court proceedings [5] - A divorce case involving Zhongheng Co. resulted in the transfer of shares valued at 500 million yuan to the female party, although company control remains unaffected [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic data from the U.S. indicates a slowdown in inflation, which may impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and subsequently affect silver prices. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June was below market expectations, with a month-on-month change of 0.0% compared to the expected 0.2% increase, and a year-on-year rate of 2.3%, lower than the anticipated 2.5% and May's 2.6% [3] - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also disappointed, showing a month-on-month change of 0.0% (expected 0.2%) and a year-on-year rate of 2.6%, below the expected 2.7% and May's 3.0% [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated that overall inflation met expectations, but core inflation was slightly lower than anticipated, contributing to a softened outlook on aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [3] Silver Price Analysis - Silver prices opened at $37.708, reached a daily high of $38.079, and then fell to a low of $37.473 before closing at $37.897, forming a spinning top candlestick pattern [4] - The upward target for silver is to break through $39.11, which could pave the way towards $40.00, with the next resistance at $40.50 [5] - Downward support levels are identified at $37.50 (previous consolidation high), $36.82 (21-day EMA), and $36.00 (channel support) [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Silver Co., Ltd. has announced the public disclosure of the list of incentive objects for its 2025 restricted stock incentive plan, which has been approved by the board and the compensation committee [1][2]. Summary by Sections Public Disclosure - The company publicly disclosed the names and positions of the 120 individuals selected as the first grant incentive objects from July 4 to July 14, 2025, with no objections raised during the public notice period [2]. Supervisory Board Review - The supervisory board conducted a review of the incentive object list in accordance with relevant regulations and confirmed that all selected individuals meet the qualifications outlined in the management and trial implementation measures [2][3]. - The review confirmed that none of the selected individuals fall under disqualified categories, such as being recognized as inappropriate candidates by the stock exchange or the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) within the last 12 months [2][3]. Compliance with Regulations - The incentive plan's selected objects do not include company supervisors, independent directors, shareholders holding 5% or more of shares, or their immediate family members, ensuring compliance with legal and regulatory requirements [3].

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged to a historical peak of $39 per ounce, marking the highest level since 2011, with a year-to-date increase of over 35% as of July 14, 2025, compared to gold's 27% increase [2][3] - Retail demand for silver products has seen a significant increase, with sales of silver bars and coins rising by 40% year-on-year, indicating a strong market interest [4] - The gold-silver ratio has rapidly corrected, dropping from over 100 in April-May to around 87, suggesting that silver was previously undervalued and has potential for further gains [4] Group 2 - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is the largest driver of silver demand, with global PV installations expected to exceed 600 GW in 2024, leading to a substantial increase in silver consumption [5] - Semiconductor and electric vehicle sectors are also contributing to silver demand, with the latter showing a 21% to 71% increase in silver usage per vehicle compared to traditional cars [5] - Global silver demand is projected at approximately 36,700 tons in 2024, while supply is only around 31,700 tons, resulting in a supply deficit of 5,000 tons, which is expected to widen in 2025 [5] Group 3 - Investment banks are divided in their outlook for silver, with some raising price forecasts while others warn of a potential end to the current bullish trend due to signs of reduced investment demand [6] - Technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook, with potential price targets of $40 and $50 if key resistance levels are broken [6] - The industrial demand for silver has risen to 70% of total demand, indicating a shift from its traditional role as a safe-haven asset to a growth asset driven by technological advancements [8] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a critical variable for silver prices, with expectations of interest rate cuts potentially boosting silver prices further [8] - The volatility of silver prices is a concern, with historical data showing that silver's volatility is about 1.5 times that of gold, necessitating risk management strategies for investors [9] - The ongoing industrial revolution in silver is reshaping the precious metals market, with increasing ETF holdings and a return to historical gold-silver ratio averages indicating a potential revaluation driven by green energy [10]

Group 1 - The international silver market is experiencing a fluctuating trend, with the price at $37.83 per ounce, reflecting a 0.35% increase as investors await the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) announcement for further Federal Reserve cues [1] - The U.S. has announced reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners, including the EU, Japan, Canada, Mexico, and South Korea, adding uncertainty to global trade dynamics [3] - The U.S. inflation rate has surged to 2.7% year-on-year, driven by rising prices of imported goods, raising questions about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in September [3] Group 2 - Silver prices opened at $38.094, peaked at $38.374, and closed at $37.685, indicating a bearish trend with potential targets at $37.8 and $37.5, and further support at $37.30-$37.50 [4] - The silver market is under pressure as the gold-silver ratio rises above 88.00, with a significant support level at $37.30; a break below this level could lead to testing the next support at $35.65-$35.85 [4]