- The report discusses the performance of various market indices, highlighting that the CSI 2000 Index performed well, with a 1.14% increase, while the SSE 50 Index fell by 0.12%[6] - The report also notes that the CSI 500 Value Index performed well among style indices, with a 1.39% increase[6] - The report provides details on the performance of different industry indices, with consumer services, petroleum and petrochemicals, and electrical equipment industries performing well, with returns of 2.50%, 2.32%, and 1.98% respectively[7] - The report highlights the performance of various concept themes, noting that the UHV, AVIC, and aero-engine concepts performed well, with returns of 6.69%, 5.64%, and 5.27% respectively[10] - The report provides data on market sentiment, noting that 103 stocks hit the daily limit up and 31 stocks hit the daily limit down, with a sealing rate of 78% and a continuous board rate of 20%[14][17] - The report discusses the flow of market funds, noting that as of January 16, 2026, the balance of margin financing and securities lending was 2.7315 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.7% of the circulating market value[19][23] - The report provides data on ETF premiums and discounts, noting that the Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Enhanced ETF had a premium of 5.47%, while the Game Media ETF had a discount of 2.98%[24][26] - The report discusses block trading premiums and discounts, noting that the average discount rate for block trades over the past six months was 6.74%, with a discount rate of 3.41% on January 16, 2026[27][29] - The report provides data on the annualized discount rates of stock index futures, noting that the annualized discount rate of the CSI 500 stock index futures main contract was 1.74%, at the 94th percentile over the past year[29][32] - The report highlights the stocks that were most frequently researched by institutions in the past week, with Dikang Holdings being researched by 97 institutions[31][33] - The report provides data on the top ten stocks with net inflows and outflows from institutional seats and Northbound funds, with Goldwind Technology and China XD Electric being the top net inflow stocks respectively[37][38][39][41]

Market Overview - On January 19, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.05%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 0.48%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.4%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.7%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.05% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on January 19 were basic chemicals (+2.7%), oil and petrochemicals (+2.08%), electric equipment (+1.84%), automobiles (+1.7%), and social services (+1.63%). The worst-performing sectors were computers (-1.55%), telecommunications (-0.96%), banking (-0.6%), pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.52%), and electronics (-0.49%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on January 19 was 27,322 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.292 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights Macroeconomic Analysis - Latin America is characterized as an export-oriented economy for agricultural and mineral products while importing manufactured goods. The commodity cycle significantly influences total demand through both export and capital expenditure channels [5] - The market anticipates that exports may drive economic growth in 2026 [5] Fixed Income Analysis - The current R007 weighted interest rate is around 1.50%, which reflects both the central bank's preferred pricing (DR007) and liquidity friction between banks and non-banks (the spread between R007 and DR007). It is advised not to hold overly optimistic expectations [7][8] - The market sentiment is relatively optimistic, but there is a cautious stance compared to previous assessments [10]

Report Information - Report Title: Commodities Weekly Report - Report Date: January 19, 2026 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Qualification Number: F03090299 [1][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the commodity market rose 1.13% overall, with precious metals leading at 9.41%, while black, agricultural products, and energy and chemicals declined by 0.08%, 0.15%, and 0.98% respectively. Short - term geopolitical disturbances are numerous, and the commodity market may fluctuate. [2][6] - The US economic data shows resilience, Fed officials are negative about short - term rate cuts, and it's almost certain that the rate will remain unchanged in January. In China, December's import - export and social financing data are better than expected, indicating continuous and moderate economic improvement. [2] - The nomination of the next Fed Chair may be decided this week. [2] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Performance Summary - **Market Index** - Last week, the overall commodity market rose 1.13%. Precious metals led with a 9.41% increase, non - ferrous metals rose slightly by 0.89%, while black, agricultural products, and energy and chemicals declined by 0.08%, 0.15%, and 0.98% respectively. [2][6] - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with non - ferrous and precious metal sectors having larger fluctuations. [2][6] - Only the precious metal and black sectors had net capital inflows, with 32.5 billion yuan flowing into the precious metal sector. [2][6] - **Top Gainers and Losers** - The top - rising varieties were up 20.03%, 14.95%, and 4.1%. The top - falling varieties were glass, rapeseed meal, and a certain variety, down 3.58%, 3.55%, and 3.39% respectively. [6] 3.2 Outlook for Each Sector - **Precious Metals** - The Iran situation is tense, the US is pressuring Greenland and imposing additional tariffs on many European countries. Trump's challenges to the global order make the upward trend of precious metals unchanged. In the short term, they may fluctuate strongly. [2] - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - Recent domestic and international data are positive, indicating economic recovery. The US dollar index is under pressure, and the macro - environment is neutral to positive. The SHFE inventory continues to accumulate, the LME is in a destocking state, and most spot premiums are weakening. Supply - side contraction risks still exist, supporting the sector's prices. In the short term, the sector may fluctuate. [2] - **Black Metals** - The apparent demand for rebar has rebounded, production has slightly decreased, and the inventory - building pace has slowed. December's steel exports reached a new high. Steel mill profits have marginally recovered, but due to insufficient downstream acceptance, blast furnace复产 has slowed, and hot metal production has decreased. The peak of iron ore's phased supply has passed, port inventories continue to increase, and the structural contradiction still exists but is expected to ease. The coal price may fluctuate weakly due to rising total inventories and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data. In the short term, the sector may fluctuate. [3] - **Energy** - The Iran situation is tense but under control, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined. The market is becoming desensitized to geopolitical issues, and the geopolitical premium space is limited unless a conflict actually occurs. The latest EIA weekly data shows a significant increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. In the first quarter of 2026, global crude oil supply - demand shows significant inventory pressure, and oversupply is the main factor suppressing oil prices. Oil prices may be under pressure in the short term. [3] - **Chemicals** - For polyester varieties, the short - term upward driving force has weakened. For building material varieties, PVC's operating rate has slightly increased, some enterprises' exports have increased, but downstream operating rates have declined, and procurement enthusiasm is low. Attention should be paid to whether export tax rebates will drive export - rushing and create month - spread arbitrage opportunities. In 2026, PVC is expected to reduce production capacity, and the futures price center is expected to rise. Glass production capacity has been continuously reduced to 150100 tons. In the long term, glass supply will decrease, and supply - demand pressure will ease. As the downstream approaches the holiday, seasonal inventory accumulation may occur. [4] - **Agricultural Products** - Brazil's IBGE expects the 2026 soybean output to increase by 2.5% compared to 2025. The impact of La Nina is gradually fading, and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America has returned as the main trading logic. The US biomass fuel policy's certainty has increased, and the policy is expected to be announced in early March. In the short term, oilseeds and fats may fluctuate. [4] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs** - Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.85% - 2.90%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 263.587 billion yuan, with a 0.79% increase. The total trading volume was 754.651862 million shares, with a 2.19% increase. [37] - **Other Commodity ETFs** - The energy and chemical ETF had a - 0.96% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 1.86% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 3.78% return, and the silver fund had a 23.15% return. The total scale of all commodity ETFs was 279.532 billion yuan, with a 1.85% increase, and the total trading volume was 2288.502384 million shares, with an 8.63% increase. [37][39]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% on January 19, with 23 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the basic chemical and oil & petrochemical industries, which increased by 2.70% and 2.08% respectively [1] - The main funds in the two markets saw a net outflow of 35.714 billion yuan, while 13 sectors had net inflows, with the power equipment sector leading at a net inflow of 7.597 billion yuan and a daily increase of 1.84% [1] Oil & Petrochemical Industry - The oil & petrochemical sector increased by 2.08% with a net inflow of 381 million yuan, comprising 47 stocks, of which 41 rose and 5 fell, including 1 stock hitting the daily limit [2] - Among the stocks in this sector, the top net inflows were from Hengli Petrochemical at 137 million yuan, followed by Bohai Chemical and Sinopec with net inflows of 86.971 million yuan and 74.399 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net outflows included Renji Shares, CNOOC Services, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, with outflows of 39.671 million yuan, 31.826 million yuan, and 28.997 million yuan respectively [2] Stock Performance in Oil & Petrochemical Sector - Key stocks in the oil & petrochemical sector and their performance include: - Hengli Petrochemical: +6.91%, turnover rate 0.70%, net inflow 136.603 million yuan - Bohai Chemical: +10.02%, turnover rate 8.62%, net inflow 86.971 million yuan - Sinopec: +1.54%, turnover rate 0.21%, net inflow 74.399 million yuan - Other notable stocks include Rongsheng Petrochemical (+4.90%), China National Petroleum (+0.20%), and others with varying performance [2][3]

【博时市场点评1月19日】A股缩量震荡，两市走势分化 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数走势分化，两市成交较上周五缩量至2.7万亿，资金交易热度有所降温。截至上周 五，两融余额继站上2.7万亿后仍继续放量。美国近日发布了11月消费数据，总体有所回升，主要是因 为11月是传统消费旺季，感恩节、"黑五"与圣诞节都会刺激消费需求，并且关税政策与政府停摆扰动影 响减弱。往后看，25年四季度美国经济增速或在政府停摆的冲击下承压，低基数效应或有利于26年一季 度GDP增速的环比反弹。因此，美联储在降息问题上或将保持谨慎的立场。短期看，市场将聚焦1月29 日美联储议息会议，这将是鲍威尔最后一次主持，届时特朗普或提名新主席人选，受此影响市场波动率 或上升；中期维度，若4–5月通胀持续回落，则6月降息落地概率较高，全球风险资产或有望受到支撑。 消息面 1月19日，国家统计局数据显示，初步核算，2025年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算，比上 年增长5.0%。12月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.2%，环比增长0.49%。社会消费品零售总额 45136亿元，同比增长0.9%。全年全国固定资产投资（不含农户）48518 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% to close at 4114.00 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09% to 14294.05 points. In contrast, the Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by 0.48% to 1506.86 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.70% to 3337.61 points. Overall, 3526 stocks rose while 1826 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 27083 billion yuan, down by 3179 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][10]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top gainers included basic chemicals (up 2.70%), petroleum and petrochemicals (up 2.08%), electric equipment (up 1.84%), automobiles (up 1.70%), social services (up 1.63%), and building materials (up 1.61%). Conversely, the sectors that experienced declines were computers (down 1.55%), communications (down 0.96%), and banking (down 0.60%) [1][10]. Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors today included ultra-high voltage, AVIC system, Hainan Free Trade Port, fluorine chemicals, charging piles, virtual power plants, selected chemical raw materials, selected animal health, selected chemical fibers, ice and snow tourism, general aviation, large aircraft, aircraft carriers, and selected rare metals [2].

Inflation and Economic Indicators - December CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, both in line with expectations; core CPI at 2.6% year-on-year is the lowest since March 2021, better than the expected 2.7%[6] - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January 2026 is at 54.0, showing a rebound for two consecutive months, indicating improved consumer satisfaction regarding inflation[6] Market Performance - S&P 500 index decreased by 0.4% for the week but is up 1.4% year-to-date; Nasdaq index fell by 0.7% weekly and is up 1.2% year-to-date; Russell 2000 index rose by 2.2% weekly and is up 7.7% year-to-date[20] - The market sentiment has shifted to a "greed" zone, with the VIX closing at 15.86, below the critical value of 20[14] Earnings Reports - In the first week of Q4 earnings, 35 S&P 500 companies reported, with 67% exceeding revenue expectations and 79% surpassing EPS expectations, overall EPS exceeded expectations by 5.8%[22] - Financial and consumer discretionary sectors saw earnings upgrades, while energy and healthcare sectors experienced significant downgrades[22] Future Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue its slow decline, with retail sales showing strength; the probability of a rate cut in January is less than 5%[22] - The market is pricing in the first rate cut of 2026 after the new Federal Reserve chair is appointed, likely in June[22] Sector Performance - Among 36 sectors, 19 showed gains, with the top five performers being Coal II (+9.1%), Defense (+5.7%), Non-ferrous Metals (+5.2%), Electrical Equipment (+4.8%), and Consumer Staples (+4.8%)[22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the active performance of sectors such as chemicals, steel, energy storage, and power grid equipment, with the National Free Cash Flow Index rising by 1.4% as of 14:35 on January 19 [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Pinggao Electric reached the daily limit, Weichai Power increased by over 7%, and both Chint Electric and Inner Mongolia Erdos rose by over 5% [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF, E Fund (159222), saw a net subscription of 3 million units during the trading session, achieving net subscriptions on 9 out of the last 10 trading days [1] Group 2 - The National Free Cash Flow Index selects stocks based on free cash flow rate and adjusts quarterly, with the top three industries being automotive, oil and petrochemicals, and home appliances, focusing on high-quality "cash cow" companies that offer strong defensive attributes [1] - The E Fund Free Cash Flow ETF aims to achieve excess returns through refined management while closely tracking the National Free Cash Flow Index, reporting an excess return of 2.43% relative to the index over the past six months, ranking first among peers, with a tracking error of only 0.06% [1] - The management fee rate for the ETF is set at 0.15% per year, providing investors with a low-cost tool for core allocation in a volatile market [1]

每日经济新闻 1月19日午后，石化ETF（159731）延续上行趋势，截至13:22，涨2.84%，持仓股昊华科技、鲁西 化工、恒力石化等领涨。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF连续8个交易日获得资金净流入，合计"吸 金"2.69亿元。石化ETF最新份额达5.49亿份，最新规模达5.22亿元，均创成立以来新高。 华西证券认为，A股慢牛趋势不变，1月下旬年报业绩预告密集披露期，关注业绩高增或景气改善 的方向。行业配置上，（1）关注科技产业行情的扩散：如AI算力、AI应用、机器人、港股互联网等； （2）受益于"反内卷"与涨价方向，如化工、有色金属等；（3）2025年年报业绩预告高增方向：如电 子、机械设备、医药等。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行 业分布来看，基础化工行业占比为59.23%，石油石化行业占比为32.60%，随着供需格局重构与产业属 性升级，产业周期修复加快节奏。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound, with the oil and gas ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159309) showing a strong performance, gaining 1.72% and attracting over 6 million yuan in investment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The oil and gas ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159309) has seen most of its constituent stocks rise, with notable increases from companies such as Jereh Group and COSCO Shipping Energy, both exceeding 3% [3]. - As of 14:37, the top ten constituent stocks of the oil and gas ETF are listed, showcasing significant price changes and industry classifications [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Recent geopolitical tensions are highlighted as a potential risk for oil production and exports, particularly concerning Iran's average monthly oil production of 3.26 million barrels per day for 2025 [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support oil price stability in the long term, as indicated by the analysis from Guangda Securities [5]. Group 3: Investment Logic - Four key investment logic points are identified for the oil sector: 1. Geopolitical conflicts may boost oil prices, with the Russian geopolitical outlook being a core factor influencing supply expectations [5]. 2. The commodity cycle suggests that the oil sector is worth monitoring during the current economic conditions, with a potential super cycle for commodities [5]. 3. The supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, with historical low inventory levels and reduced capital expenditure in oil supply over the past decade [9]. 4. The oil sector offers high dividend advantages, with the oil and gas ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159309) showing a 12-month dividend yield of 3.83% and a payout ratio exceeding 50% for 2023-2024 [5][9]. Group 4: Long-term Value - The oil and gas sector is positioned as a long-term investment opportunity, with the ETF focusing on the oil and gas industry chain, highlighting its importance as a national pillar industry [5].