Group 1: Macroeconomic Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has deepened. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasuries have both rebounded, indicating a rise in inflation expectations [1][14][18]. - Offshore US dollar liquidity remains marginally loose, while the domestic interbank funding environment is balanced and slightly loose. The yield spread between 10Y and 1Y government bonds continues to widen [1][20]. Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has continued to decline, with trading heat in sectors such as textiles, light industry, consumer services, and military industry remaining above the 80th percentile [2][26]. - The volatility of major indices has mostly continued to decrease, while the volatility in the communication, electric power, and electronics sectors remains above the 80th historical percentile [2][32]. Group 3: Institutional Research - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, machinery, electric power, and non-ferrous metals, with rising research interest in the automotive, electronics, and military sectors [3][42]. Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted, with increases in the real estate, steel, consumer services, light industry, and pharmaceutical sectors [4][21]. - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 300 index for 2025 and 2026 have been raised, while the forecasts for the SSE 50 have been lowered. The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices have been adjusted in opposite directions [4][23]. Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has continued to decline, with a net sell-off in A-shares. The ratio of buy and sell amounts in sectors such as communication, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials has increased, while it has decreased in electric power, automotive, and home appliance sectors [5][29]. - Northbound trading primarily net bought in the communication, military, and machinery sectors, while net selling occurred in the media, real estate, and electronics sectors [5][33]. Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has again declined, remaining at low levels since late July 2025. The net buying was mainly in the military, non-ferrous metals, and communication sectors, while net selling occurred in chemicals, electric power, and construction sectors [6][35]. - The trading heat in the "Dragon and Tiger List" has slightly decreased, with military, building materials, and light industry sectors showing relatively high trading amounts [6][41]. Group 7: Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to decline, with a slight net subscription in ETFs. Active equity funds have mainly increased positions in media, consumer services, and banking sectors, while reducing positions in non-ferrous metals, electronics, and automotive sectors [7][45]. - The newly established equity fund scale has continued to decline, with active funds seeing a rebound while passive funds have decreased. ETFs related to TMT, pharmaceuticals, and electric power sectors have been primarily net bought, while financial real estate, military, and chemical sectors have seen net selling [7][52][53].

Core Viewpoint - The December Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable yet progressive approach to economic work in 2026, focusing on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply to enhance resource allocation efficiency [1][6][21]. Economic Goals and Policy Framework - The meeting highlights the need to continue expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, aiming for both qualitative and quantitative growth in the economy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][21]. - The overall policy framework for 2026 will maintain a proactive stance, with a focus on enhancing the quality and effectiveness of development, alongside a more active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [2][8][22]. Industry Policy Deployment - The meeting outlines a clear path for industry planning in 2026, prioritizing domestic demand and innovation, which will benefit sectors such as consumer goods, AI, digital economy, and new energy [3][10][24]. - Emphasis is placed on reform, opening up, and coordinated development to enhance high-quality growth, benefiting state-owned enterprises and infrastructure-related sectors [3][10][24]. Implications for A-Share Investment - The meeting provides initial guidance for economic work in 2026, focusing on domestic demand, innovation, and reform, which is expected to stabilize market expectations and boost confidence in the A-share market [4][17][26]. - Upcoming central economic work meetings are anticipated to detail specific fiscal, monetary, and industrial measures, further activating market vitality [4][17][26]. Investment Focus Areas - The current policy window indicates a clearer structural focus for 2026, with attention on new productive forces such as AI, renewable energy, and quantum technology, alongside recovery paths for manufacturing and resource sectors [12][26]. - The consumer sector is expected to see a favorable investment environment due to policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, while the trend of companies expanding overseas will enhance profit potential [12][26].

Policy Trends - Some leading brokerages are expected to benefit from the appropriate easing of capital space and leverage restrictions, which may strengthen the brokerage sector and further boost market sentiment [5][4] - The insurance sector is rebounding due to the adjustment of related business risk factors, with the non-bank sector likely to lead the market sentiment recovery during the year-end period [5][4] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has announced adjustments to the risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments and overseas investment insurance, aiming to enhance long-term investment management capabilities [4][5] Overseas Macro - The U.S. job market is currently in a state of mild slowdown, with the ADP employment figure for November dropping significantly to -32,000, far below the expected 10,000 [6] - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is approximately 87%, as high interest rates are suppressing employment in interest-sensitive sectors [6] Bond Market - After a rapid rise in long-term yields, the 30-10Y government bond yield spread has gradually returned to a historically reasonable range, indicating initial signs of value for allocation after a significant drop [7][15] - The central bank has continued to net withdraw funds, with a total net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan through reverse repos during the first week of December [7][9] Equity Market - The market style continues to favor resource products and AI, with non-bank sectors gaining momentum, particularly in commercial aerospace and robotics, which have strengthened the military and machinery sectors [16][21] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.26% and 1.86%, respectively [16] Investment Strategy - The company is optimistic about technology, brokerages, and consumer sectors as the market approaches the year-end offensive [2][22] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to lead to more proactive economic policies, with a focus on stabilizing the short-term macro economy and further easing monetary policy [22][24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of advancing national defense and military modernization in China, highlighting the potential for growth in the military industry due to increased global competition and geopolitical tensions [1] Industry Overview - The 14th Five-Year Plan proposes high-quality advancement in national defense and military modernization, accelerating the upgrade of advanced weaponry and equipment [1] - The military industry is identified as a crucial area for breakthroughs in new productive forces, with a broad industry outlook [1] Competitive Landscape - China's global competitiveness in shipbuilding, aerospace, and satellite navigation has been steadily improving in recent years [1] - The military industry is expected to receive valuation support due to the rising importance of national defense and security amid frequent global conflicts and unstable geopolitical situations [1] Investment Vehicle - The military ETF (512660) tracks the CSI Military Industry Index (399967), which includes 79 constituent stocks from listed companies involved in aerospace, shipbuilding, weaponry, military electronics, and satellites [1] - This index aims to comprehensively reflect the overall performance of publicly traded companies in China's military industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [26]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector has shown strong performance, with the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rising by 2.82%, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [3][6]. - The report highlights the acceleration of task deliveries in Q4, with expectations for improved performance as orders from the 14th Five-Year Plan are anticipated to be issued by the end of the year [5]. - Geopolitical uncertainties are driving increased demand for military equipment, particularly in the Middle East and Asia, suggesting significant investment opportunities in military trade and technology [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of commercial aerospace development, particularly in the context of military technology advancements, and suggests focusing on high-value segments of commercial rockets and satellite manufacturing [5]. - The military trade landscape is evolving, with a strong resonance between supply and demand, indicating a robust future for China's military trade [5]. Market Review - The Shenwan Defense and Military Index outperformed other indices, ranking third among 31 sectors with a 2.82% increase [6]. - The average increase for the civil-military integration index was 4.7%, indicating strong performance in this segment [6]. - Top-performing stocks in the defense sector included Aerospace Development (up 52.26%), Aerospace Electromechanical (up 46.77%), and Shanghai Hanxun (up 24.98%) [14]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan Defense and Military sector is 79.95, indicating it is in a historically high valuation range [15][19]. - The report notes a divergence in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [15][19]. Key Investment Targets - The report suggests focusing on high-end combat capabilities and new-generation equipment, as well as unmanned and anti-unmanned weaponry, which are expected to see rapid growth starting in 2025 [5]. - Recommended stocks include high-end combat combinations such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600316.SH) and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft (600768.SH), among others [5].

Market Overview - Major indices closed higher on December 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.08%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.36%[2] - Trading volume reached 1.74 trillion CNY, an increase of approximately 180 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - Non-bank financials, metals, machinery, and military industries showed significant gains, while the banking sector experienced a slight decline[1] - The communication computing sector surged due to strong performance from newly listed domestic chip companies, although high valuations may pose future risks[1] Capital Flow - On December 5, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange totaled 36.67 billion CNY, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net inflows of 19.48 billion CNY[3] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were general equipment, communication equipment, and industrial metals[3] Policy and Economic Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission allocated a total of 35.5 billion CNY for employment support projects, aiming to create over 1.1 million jobs for low-income individuals[4] - The focus is on promoting employment and income growth through targeted investment projects[4] Industry Insights - The second-hand car market in October saw a transaction volume of 1.76 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%[8] - The cumulative transaction volume for second-hand cars from January to October reached 16.49 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%[8] Technology and Market Trends - The global smart vacuum cleaner market experienced a shipment increase of 18.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total of 17.42 million units shipped[9] - The commercial aerospace sector is poised for significant growth, with a potential trillion-level market emerging due to advancements in technology and policy support[10]

国新证券指出，"十五五"规划提出高质量推进国防和军队现代化，新域新质作战力量建设将加快先 进武器装备的更新换代，军工装备迎来新的发展时期。近年来，我国在船舶、航空航天、卫星导航等领 域的全球竞争力持续提升，国防军工行业是新质生产力发展突破的重要方向，行业前景广阔。在全球冲 突多发和地缘局势并不平静的背景下，国防安全重要性提升，行业估值有望获得支撑。我国将开展太空 探源科学卫星计划，探寻宇宙生命起源，进一步推动航天装备领域发展。 军工ETF（512660）跟踪的是中证军工指数（399967），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及航空航天、 兵器、电子等国防领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，全面反映军工行业相关上市公司证券的整体表 现。指数成分股涵盖航空、航天、船舶、兵器、军事电子和卫星等细分领域，不仅包括大型军工集团控 股企业，也包含其他业务范围涉及军工领域的上市公司。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品， ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a general increase in major indices last week, but trading volume was insufficient, with the average daily turnover dropping to 1.70 trillion yuan [1][5] - The cyclical sector performed well due to supply tightening and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with precious metals leading the gains [1][5] - The market style was characterized by cyclical > financial > growth > consumption [1][5] Group 2 - Domestic news indicates that the capital space and leverage limits for quality brokerages are expected to open up, which will facilitate the entry of significant incremental capital into the market [1][5] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is anticipated to set a relatively positive fiscal policy for next year, particularly in new areas of fiscal support that will directly impact the recovery of certain sectors [1][5] Group 3 - The spring market focus is on technology and manufacturing, with an emphasis on domestic policy direction [2][6] - The technology sector is believed to be in the later stages of adjustment, with historical data suggesting limited further downside potential after a 40-day correction and a 25% drop in the industry index [2][6] - Concerns regarding AI investment returns need to be alleviated for the technology sector to regain strength, with advancements in large model capabilities and AI commercialization being key catalysts [2][6] Group 4 - The global manufacturing sector is expected to experience a synchronized recovery, benefiting from both fiscal and monetary easing [2][6] - There is a focus on manufacturing within the export chain (non-ferrous metals, power grid equipment, engineering machinery) and related sectors in emerging markets (home appliances, automotive) [2][6] - Non-bank sectors (insurance, brokerages, financial IT) and high-dividend stocks (banks, coal, white goods) are also expected to benefit from liquidity-driven opportunities [2][6]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华泰证券策略研究 上周A股继续缩量反弹。资金面，联储降息预期回暖和国内基本面定价有效性提升共振下资金面环境有 所改善，主动外资净流出规模收窄、ETF发行和申购回暖，保险风险因子下调或进一步打开险资配置权 益资产空间。景气度，近期TMT、上游资源景气改善幅度居前，关注AI链、涨价链、资本品、大众消 费品和基建链等线索。政治局及中央经济会议前政策预期或逐步升温，12月中下旬"春躁"可能提前启 动，均衡配置成长和周期，中期视角下大金融和部分高性价比消费或仍是中国资产重估的底仓选择。 核心观点 资金观察：配置型资金有回暖迹象，保险风险因子下调或带来增量 近期资金面环境有所改善：1）交易型资金边际放缓，两融余额小幅回升，融资买入额及占成交额比重 回落；私募备案数量放缓至178个，但11月环比提速，且产品发行和建仓有滞后性；2）配置型资金有回 暖迹象，新成立偏股型基金份额小幅回落，但估算普通股票型、偏股混合型基金仓位环比回升；美国 ADP就业数据强化12月降息预期，EPFR统计的主动外资净流出规模收窄；ETF近一周转为净申购，11 月底以来新 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes discuss the investment market dynamics leading up to the end of the year, highlighting cautious investor behavior due to assessment and demand return drift, resulting in low market trading volume [1][2] - The potential for a spring market rally is analyzed, with historical data indicating that a trend upward typically begins about two weeks before the Spring Festival, with gains often exceeding 10% [1][3] Key Insights and Arguments - The spring market rally is expected to be a continuation pattern this year, suggesting that the overall index has more than 10% upside potential [1][3] - The timing of the spring rally is influenced by market sentiment and catalysts; if strong catalysts such as resolution of overseas interest rate cuts or positive domestic policy announcements occur in December, the rally may start earlier [1][4][5] - Small-cap stocks and technology sectors are expected to perform well during the spring rally, with the TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) sector showing high win rates and elasticity [1][6] - Defensive strategies are favored before the holiday, while a clearer upward trend is anticipated post-holiday, emphasizing the importance of focusing on technology and high-end manufacturing sectors during the spring rally [1][6] Long-term Investment Recommendations - Long-term investors are advised to focus on "Galloping Assets," which are traditional industry leaders with global competitive advantages, benefiting from rising external demand and supportive domestic manufacturing policies, currently at relatively low valuations [1][7] - During the year-end window, attention should be given to low crowding stocks and quality dividends from insurance capital influx, as well as cyclical stocks, with a positive outlook for assets benefiting from external demand and the key tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][7]