丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨新集能源（601918.SH） [Table_Title] 新集能源：Q3 煤电盈利环比均改善，展望 2026 年价值成长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年三季报：2025Q1-Q3 实现归母净利润 14.77 亿元，同比减少 3.5 亿元（-19%）； 2025Q3 实现归母净利润 5.56 亿元，同比减少 0.9 亿元（-14%），环比+1.7 亿元（+43%）。整 体而言，公司 2025Q3 煤电盈利环比均改善，2026 年展望投产带来的价值成长。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 %% %% research.95579.com 1 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_scodeMsg2] 新集能源（6 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to rise after a week of consolidation, with the arrival of the heating season in November leading to increased procurement by power plants. The demand for heating will prevent the usual seasonal decline in consumption, and power plant inventories are gradually being depleted. A supply gap is anticipated, with coal prices potentially reaching 800 RMB/ton [6][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring flexible thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations in the coking coal sector. Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company among thermal coal firms, and Huabei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Lu'an Environmental Energy among coking coal firms [6][25] Summary by Sections Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector saw a decline of 0.43% as of October 31, 2025, mirroring the drop in the CSI 300 index. A total of 14 stocks rose while 23 fell, with Antai Group showing the highest increase of 8.36% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.2 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The average daily coal production was 7.19 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% [2][24] Price Trends - As of October 31, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 685 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15%. The price index for imported thermal coal was 866 RMB/ton, down 2.04% week-on-week [3] - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port remained stable at 1,740 RMB/ton, while the price of Australian peak coal increased by 1.88% week-on-week [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total coal inventory of monitored enterprises (including port storage) was 22.92 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%. The cumulative sales volume of coal this year was 210.52 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% [2][24] - The report indicates that the chemical industry’s coal consumption has increased by 14.8% year-on-year, while power and chemical industries have seen a decrease in coal consumption of 2.5% and an increase of 14.8%, respectively [24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the coal market is poised for a second wave of growth, with a focus on flexible thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations in the coking coal sector. It highlights the importance of monitoring companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry for potential investment opportunities [6][25]

Investment Strategy Overview - The report indicates a mid-term upward trend in the market, with potential short-term volatility due to events such as US-China tensions and significant domestic meetings. The performance of the market is expected to be influenced more by the rhythm of events rather than directional changes, maintaining a generally positive outlook [1][10]. - Investment recommendations suggest a balanced approach to navigate short-term fluctuations, focusing on policy and industrial catalysts. The report highlights a shift towards a more oscillating market, with signs of recovery in previously low-performing sectors [1][10]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - For high-positioned asset allocations, it is crucial to emphasize support from verified economic conditions, prioritizing sectors such as non-ferrous metals, lithium batteries, and storage. Conversely, for lower-positioned assets, attention should be given to dividend-yielding assets like coal, telecommunications, and electricity [2][11]. - Trading strategies should revolve around policy expectations and industrial catalysts, with a focus on consumer sectors that are relatively low in allocation, such as food and beverage, and home appliances, as well as sectors like photovoltaics and steel that counteract excessive competition [2][11]. November Stock Recommendations 1. **Coal - China Coal Energy (601898.SH)**: The company has achieved cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with Q3 performance exceeding expectations. The unit sales cost of self-produced coal for the first three quarters of 2025 was 258 RMB/ton, down by 28.9 RMB/ton year-on-year [12][13]. 2. **Steel - Hualing Steel (000932.SZ)**: The company focuses on high-end plate manufacturing, with ongoing optimization of product structure. The proportion of key steel products sold increased by 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [15]. 3. **Chemicals & Communications & Computers & Non-ferrous Metals - Dongyangguang (600673.SH)**: The acquisition of AIDC leader Qinhuai Data is expected to drive growth, with significant potential in liquid cooling and capacitors [18][19]. 4. **Electricity - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH)**: The company has seen a significant rebound in silicon material prices, with Q3 revenue reaching 240.91 billion RMB, a decrease of only 1.57% year-on-year [22][23]. 5. **Real Estate - Binhai Group (002244.SZ)**: The company reported a substantial increase in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with a focus on high-quality land reserves in Hangzhou [25][26]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The report notes that the market is entering a performance vacuum period, with pricing likely to be influenced more by policy and industrial catalysts. The focus will be on the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the dual push for supply and demand [9][10]. - The report anticipates a gradual convergence in market dynamics, with increased demand for capital rotation as the market stabilizes. The extreme differentiation in asset allocation is expected to create opportunities for style rotation [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to falling coal prices, despite an increase in coal production and sales volume [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 105 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.12 billion yuan, down 39% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 38.26 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.3 billion yuan, down 37% [1]. Coal Business - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company produced 135.89 million tons of coal, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year, and sold 126.44 million tons, up 2.6% [2]. - The average selling price of coal was 507 yuan per ton, a decrease of 23.1% year-on-year, while the average cost was 326 yuan per ton, down 11% [2]. - The average gross profit per ton of coal was 181 yuan, a decline of 38% year-on-year [2]. Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment showed a year-on-year increase in gross profit of 15%, with production of chemical products reaching 7.346 million tons, up 11.6% [3]. - The average price for chemical products was 2877 yuan per ton, down 10.9%, while the unit cost was 2119 yuan per ton, a decrease of 17.5% [3]. Strategic Actions - The company announced a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase A shares worth 0.5-1 billion yuan and H shares worth 1.5-4 billion yuan, with specific price limits [3]. - There are no immediate plans for major shareholding reductions by directors or major shareholders [4]. Northwest Mining Integration - The integration of Northwest Mining is expected to contribute over 30 million tons of coal production annually, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the coal sector [4]. - Northwest Mining has a total approved capacity of 61.05 million tons per year, with significant resources available for future production [4]. Project Reserves - The company has enriched its project reserves, acquiring significant coal resources and extending its mining capabilities, which are expected to bolster future performance [5]. - The company aims to achieve a coal production target of 300 million tons per year within the next 5-10 years, supported by ongoing projects [5]. Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 124.5 billion, 131.2 billion, and 138.2 billion yuan, with net profits of 10.8 billion, 12.6 billion, and 14.7 billion yuan respectively [6][7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are 1.07, 1.26, and 1.47 yuan, indicating a favorable investment outlook [7].

Core Insights - The trial reform for long-term investment of insurance funds has accelerated this year, with the latest holdings of insurance-related private equity funds revealed following the disclosure of listed companies' Q3 reports [1][9] - Five insurance-related private equity funds have disclosed their latest holdings, with significant investments in companies such as Sinopec, Daqin Railway, Guotou Power, Luzhou Laojiao, Anhui Expressway, and HLA [1][4] Holdings Summary - As of the end of Q3, Taibao Zhiyuan No. 1 Private Securities Investment Fund has appeared in the top ten circulating shareholders of Anhui Expressway and HLA, holding 4.1483 million shares and 18.0652 million shares respectively [3][6] - The holdings of five insurance-related private equity funds are detailed in a table, showing the number of shares, market value, and percentage of circulating A-shares for each listed company [5] - The Honghu Fund Phase III No. 1 has emerged as a major shareholder in Sinopec, Daqin Railway, Guotou Power, and Luzhou Laojiao, with holdings of 304.9586 million shares, 298.4871 million shares, 93.438 million shares, and 18.872 million shares respectively [6][7] Investment Focus - The insurance-related private equity funds are primarily concentrated in sectors such as petrochemicals, transportation, coal, public utilities, food and beverage, telecommunications, and textiles, with many holdings being industry leaders characterized by high dividends and low volatility [7][10] - The ongoing trial reform has seen the number of operational insurance-related private equity funds increase to seven, with a total approved scale of 222 billion yuan [9][10]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant improvement in both revenue and profit growth for the A-share market in Q3 2025, with a notable turnaround in net profit growth for non-financial sectors [3][4] - The overall revenue growth for the A-share market reached 3.7% year-on-year in Q3 2025, compared to -0.2% in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2, while non-financial sectors saw a revenue growth of 2.3% [3][4] - Net profit growth for the entire A-share market was 11.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, a significant increase from 3.8% in Q1 and 1.4% in Q2, with non-financial sectors showing a profit growth of 3.9% [3][4] Structural Perspective - The report indicates that the performance of major broad-based indices has improved across the board, with the ChiNext and STAR Market showing the highest earnings elasticity [4][10] - In Q3 2025, the ChiNext and STAR Market reported net profit growth rates of 58.3% and 32.8% respectively, with significant quarter-on-quarter improvements [4][10] - The dual drivers of high-tech prosperity and cyclical recovery are emphasized, with sectors like media, electronics, power equipment, and defense showing substantial profit growth exceeding 30% year-on-year [4][10] Stock Price Performance - The report notes that stock prices in the real estate and construction sectors have been more active following the mid-year earnings disclosures, indicating a market expectation for sector rotation [5] - The sectors with the most notable mid-year earnings growth are concentrated in technology manufacturing and certain cyclical industries like steel and non-ferrous metals [5] - The report suggests that the market's expectation for sector rotation is strengthening, particularly in sectors with high policy expectations, such as real estate and cyclical products [5]

Core Insights - The 21st China International Coal Mining Technology Exchange and Equipment Exhibition was held at the China International Exhibition Center, showcasing technological innovations across the entire coal industry chain [1] - The exhibition attracted 1,200 renowned domestic and international companies from 18 countries and regions, marking the largest participation and scale in its history [1] - Key exhibits included advancements in intelligent mining, safety production, and clean utilization, with a notable highlight being the debut of a smart explosion-proof inspection drone developed by a team led by Chinese Academy of Sciences academician Huang Wei [1] Industry Developments - The exhibition featured nearly 10,000 exhibits, emphasizing the industry's focus on high-end, intelligent, and green development of coal machinery and equipment [1] - The event included forums and discussions on topics such as cultivating new productive forces in coal under the "dual carbon" goals and the development of intelligent technology in coal mining [1] - An innovative "online + offline" dual-mode approach was adopted for the exhibition, leveraging internet and big data technologies to create a platform for continuous global coal industry technology exchange and cooperation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q3 2025 performance slightly underperformed expectations, primarily due to cost improvements not meeting forecasts [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 6.52 billion yuan, down 41% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.29 billion yuan, with a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 2.09 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 44% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23% [1] - The company's coal production increased, with total coal output and self-produced coal sales for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 136 million tons and 122 million tons, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 6.9% and 4.7% [1] - The average selling price of self-produced coal for the first three quarters of 2025 was 503 yuan per ton, down 22% year-on-year [1] - The cost of self-produced coal sales improved year-on-year, with a reduction of 4.7% to 319 yuan per ton [1] - The chemical business saw a profit increase driven by cost reduction, with total chemical product sales rising 13% to 6.44 million tons, and gross profit from the chemical business increasing 25% to 4.88 billion yuan [1] Development Trends - The company consolidated Northwest Mining in Q3, which has a coal production capacity of 34.25 million tons and an additional 11.8 million tons under construction, along with two coal exploration rights that could contribute over 10 million tons of potential incremental capacity in the future [2] - The company expects its growth potential to be further highlighted with the addition of high-quality resources from Northwest Mining [2] - As of October 30, the spot price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal was 773 yuan per ton, a 15% increase compared to the average price in Q3, indicating a tightening supply-demand situation and a significant rebound in coal prices [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to adjustments in asset consolidation and price-cost assumptions, the company's earnings estimates for A-shares in 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 7% and 13% to 9.9 billion yuan and 12.4 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The target prices for A and H shares have been increased by 13% and 30% to 18 yuan and 13 Hong Kong dollars, respectively, indicating an implied upside of 22% and 21% [2]

Summary of Lu'an Huanneng Q3 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Lu'an Huanneng - **Industry**: Coal Industry Key Points Q3 Performance Overview - **Raw Coal Production**: Remained consistent with previous forecasts and was stable compared to the same period last year [4][5] - **Commodity Coal Sales**: Decreased by approximately 500,000 tons in September compared to last year, primarily due to changes in product mix and increased production of certain types of coal [4][5] - **Average Selling Price**: Experienced a downward trend, with a decrease of over 140 RMB per ton compared to the previous year, leading to a revenue drop of around 6 billion RMB [4][5] - **Profit Decline**: Operating profit for January to September was approximately 1.5 billion RMB, down 44% from 2.8 billion RMB last year. Excluding non-operating expenses, the decline in operating profit exceeded 50% [5][6] Factors Affecting Production and Sales - **Weather Impact**: Increased rainfall during Q3 led to cautious production and more maintenance schedules [8][9] - **Regulatory Environment**: Ongoing strict safety regulations in Shanxi province affected production levels [8][9] - **Geological Conditions**: Some individual mines faced geological challenges, but overall resource availability was not a significant issue [10][11] Inventory and Sales Strategy - **Current Inventory**: Approximately 400,000 tons of coal in stock, considered a normal level [20][22] - **Sales Strategy**: Increased focus on producing and selling spray coal, which accounted for 44% of sales in Q3, up from around 40% previously [24][30] Pricing Trends - **Price Fluctuations**: The average selling price for spray coal increased by about 30-40 RMB per ton compared to Q2, with current market prices around 1,050 RMB per ton [32][41] - **Future Price Expectations**: Anticipation of further price increases as the market enters the winter storage phase [48][49] Cost Management - **Cost Increase**: Noted an increase in costs due to higher salary payments and operational expenses, although overall costs remained lower than last year [50][51] - **Cost Control Measures**: The company is actively managing costs but has not set specific reduction targets for the year [60][61] Taxation and Financial Outlook - **Tax Rate**: The company continues to apply a 15% tax rate for high-tech enterprises, with no expected changes in the near term [64][66] - **Profitability and Dividends**: Management believes that dividend levels can be maintained despite fluctuations in profit margins [99][100] Future Developments - **Resource Acquisition**: The company is actively seeking new resource opportunities and has plans to participate in upcoming auctions [92][93] - **Mining Rights Progress**: Anticipation of obtaining mining rights by the end of the year, which could accelerate project timelines [88][89] Conclusion - The company is facing challenges in production and profitability due to external factors such as weather and regulatory pressures. However, there are positive indicators for Q4, including potential price increases and a focus on maintaining a high proportion of spray coal in sales. The management remains optimistic about future resource acquisitions and overall market conditions.

Summary of Shanxi Huayang Group New Energy Co., Ltd. Q3 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shanxi Huayang Group New Energy Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Coal and New Energy Key Points Production and Operational Performance - **Coal Production**: - Raw coal production reached **31.15 million tons**, exceeding the planned target by **3.18 million tons** [2][10] - Sales of commercial coal were **27.7 million tons** [2] - Gas extraction from coalbed reached **660 million cubic meters** [2] - **Non-Coal Production**: - Solar power production was **982 MW** [2] - Sodium-ion battery production was **108 MWh** [2] Financial Performance - **Revenue**: - Total revenue for the first nine months was **16.956 billion**, a decrease of **8.85%** year-on-year [6] - Q3 revenue was **5.7 billion**, an increase of **5%** from Q2 [6] - **Profit**: - Total profit for the first nine months was **1.964 billion**, down **30%** year-on-year [6] - Q3 profit was **695 million**, up **120%** from Q2 [6] - **Net Cash Flow**: - Net cash flow from operating activities was **715 million**, down **61%** year-on-year [6] - Q3 operating cash flow was **660 million** [6] Market and Pricing Dynamics - **Coal Prices**: - Market prices have begun to rise, surpassing the guaranteed supply prices, providing strong support for revenue [6] - **Long-term Supply Contracts**: - Long-term supply contract fulfillment rate was approximately **80%** [24] Future Outlook - **Production Capacity**: - Current approved capacity is **35.9 million tons**, expected to increase to **40.9 million tons** with the commissioning of the Qiyuan mine [10] - **Q4 Production Expectations**: - Anticipated raw coal production for Q4 is around **9.9 million tons**, maintaining production within the approved capacity [9][10] - **Cost Control**: - Q3 production costs were maintained between **345-350** per ton, with ongoing efforts to reduce costs [13] Strategic Initiatives - **Transition to New Energy**: - Focus on sodium-ion batteries and carbon fiber as core areas for transformation [3][33] - Plans for commercial deployment of sodium-ion batteries as emergency power sources and energy storage solutions [33] - **Carbon Fiber Development**: - Ongoing adjustments in production processes to achieve high-performance standards [34] Regulatory Environment - **Safety and Compliance**: - Current safety production levels are normal, with no significant impact from recent regulatory inspections [30][31] Additional Insights - **Investment Plans**: - Capital expenditures for the year are projected to be around **5 billion**, primarily for the Qiyuan and Poli mines [27][28] - **Tax Compliance**: - The company has faced pressures related to tax payments, which have impacted financial statements [38] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the earnings call, highlighting the company's operational performance, financial results, market dynamics, future outlook, strategic initiatives, and regulatory environment.