Group 1: Market Overview - The market in January transitioned from event-driven risk aversion to concerns over global order restructuring, with expanding global trust fractures and structural contradictions in silver supply and demand driving gold and silver prices higher [1] - For February, the expectation is that gold and silver will not experience a trend reversal, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes brought by subsequent risk events and potential shifts in U.S. macroeconomic expectations [1] Group 2: Gold Fundamentals - Total gold supply for the first three quarters of 2025 is projected at 3,717 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, with Q3 supply reaching a historical high of 1,313 tons, up 3% year-on-year [2][3] - Gold demand for the same period is expected to grow by 1% to 3,717 tons, corresponding to a value of $38.4 billion, a 41% year-on-year increase, with Q3 demand also hitting a record high [3] - Investment demand remains dominant, with global gold ETF holdings increasing significantly by 222 tons, and gold bar and coin demand surpassing 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter [3] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central bank gold purchases have continued to mitigate the pressure from U.S. interest rate hikes, with approximately 2,500 tons bought since 2022, despite a net outflow of 745.6 tons from gold ETFs during the same period [5] - Emerging market central banks, including those from China, Turkey, Poland, and India, continue to increase their gold reserves, with Poland planning to purchase an additional 150 tons [5] Group 4: Silver Fundamentals - Since Q3 2025, silver has shown a relatively independent market performance, driven by long-term supply-demand contradictions and a low valuation compared to gold [8][9] - The silver market has been experiencing a supply-demand gap since 2021, exacerbated by the rapid growth of the photovoltaic industry, which has created new demand for silver [10] Group 5: Silver Demand in Industrial Applications - The demand for silver in the photovoltaic sector is expected to face challenges due to a trend of reduced silver consumption per unit, with projections indicating a decrease in silver powder production for photovoltaic applications [13][14] - The development of electric vehicles and data centers is anticipated to provide marginal demand increases for silver, with automotive silver demand projected to grow by 3.4% annually from 2025 to 2031 [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the top ten stocks with the highest net financing purchases on February 4, indicating strong investor interest in these companies [1] Group 1: Top Stocks by Net Financing Purchases - Kingsoft Office leads with a net purchase of 315 million yuan [1] - Zhongjin Gold follows with a net purchase of 245 million yuan [1] - Laplace ranks third with a net purchase of 234 million yuan [1] - China Satellite has a net purchase of 212 million yuan [1] - Shiyun Circuit received a net purchase of 198 million yuan [1] - Aotaiwei saw a net purchase of 185 million yuan [1] - Chifeng Gold and Baiyin Nonferrous both had net purchases of 151 million yuan [1] - Zijin Mining recorded a net purchase of 149 million yuan [1] - Huamao Technology had a net purchase of 143 million yuan [1]

Report Overview - The report is a daily publication from Goldtrust Futures Research Institute, dated February 5, 2026 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, there may be a staged rebound, but the overall upside is limited. Operations should focus on high - selling and low - buying within the range [4] Summary by Category Coking Coal - Indonesia's government's large - scale production cut plan has led to miners suspending spot coal exports. Some companies' 2026 production quotas may be cut by 40% - 70% compared to 2025, causing export quotes to skyrocket and driving the A - share coal sector to a daily limit and coking coal futures to strengthen [3] - As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic coal mines in major production areas are starting to arrange for holidays and production suspension, leading to a seasonal low in supply. However, the Mongolian coal customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high, with relatively sufficient imports. In February, coking coal supply decreases while demand remains stable, and the fundamentals improve marginally [3] - The coking coal futures are oscillating in the range of 1,100 - 1,300 yuan/ton, with the 1,300 - yuan integer mark being a strong resistance level. The recent rally lacked volume, which may trigger profit - taking by funds. Macroscopically, market trading activity decreases as the Spring Festival approaches, and speculative demand shrinks [3] Stock Index Futures - The A - share market rebounded after hitting the bottom today, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the gap. It is facing short - term pressure near the current level, and it is recommended to reduce positions on rallies for now [6][7] Gold - Gold prices continue to decline sharply, and it is expected that the volatility will continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [10] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it has broken through the platform support and is regarded as oscillating bearishly [12][13] Glass - The daily melting volume of glass has changed little, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The main drivers are the policy - side stimulus policies and the anti - involution policies for the supply - side clearance. Technically, it closed with a large positive line today, and the trading idea has turned to oscillating bullishly [15][16] Methanol - As the Spring Festival approaches, the methanol market has abundant supply and weakening demand. Enterprises are smoothly clearing their inventories but mostly selling at low prices. The market lacks positive support, and the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term [18] Pulp - From the perspective of the pulp fundamentals, the supply - demand pattern has improved month - on - month since the end of last year, driving the pulp price to bottom out and rebound. However, the recovery of domestic terminal consumption is still slow, which should limit the speed and space of price increases. The futures market has shown an oscillating pattern in the recent period [21]

一夜过后，全球市场又陷入危险之中： - 美股科技股抛售加剧，纳斯达克100指数遭遇自去年10月以来最严重的两日暴跌。并跌破100日移动均 线，一些技术分析师认为，这一水平预示着未来可能出现更多下跌。 - 比特币也延续下跌势头，向70000美元整数水平试探。 - 与此同时，黄金回吐当日大部分涨幅，仅微幅上涨。 - 美元指数则转而上涨，收复了1月23日以来的跌幅。 这一轮下跌有两个明显特点： 来源：华尔街情报圈 第二，美元出现明显上涨，过去"美元下跌，万物上涨"的旧公式失效了。 美元不是因为"美国多好"才涨的，而是资金在撤、在避险，这对科技股、比特币、高估值资产是天然压 制。 更为关键的是，昨晚（北京时间00:39）美国财长贝森特说了一句"我们始终支持强势美元政策"。这句 话，本质是"给市场画了一条红线"。等于在告诉市场，不要指望通过美元贬值来缓解金融压力，美元不 再承担"稳定资产价格"的功能。 但这并非是一轮危机，正如我们今天在《环球市场策略》中所言： 如果这是系统性危机债市会暴动，收益率会大涨，但这一幕并没有发生，2年期美债收益率 还微跌。说明这并非危机，仅仅是市场层面的资产重新定价。 我们将这轮行情的"危险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The inflow of funds into thematic ETFs has significantly accelerated since the beginning of the year, indicating a shift in investor preferences towards these investment vehicles [1][5]. Group 1: ETF Growth and Performance - As of the end of January, 14 ETFs have seen their scales increase by over 10 billion yuan, with resource and technology-related ETFs being particularly prominent [2][3]. - Resource-related ETFs, especially those focused on non-ferrous metals and gold, have shown remarkable growth, with the Huaan Gold ETF increasing by 33.54 billion yuan and the Southern CSI Non-ferrous Metals ETF growing by 24.22 billion yuan in January alone [3][4]. - Technology-themed ETFs have also attracted significant investment, particularly in sectors like power grids, satellites, and semiconductor equipment, reflecting a sustained interest in these growth areas [3][4]. Group 2: Performance of High-Quality Products - The ETFs that have expanded significantly are generally backed by strong performance, with the Huaan Gold ETF and Southern CSI Non-ferrous Metals ETF rising by 19.34% and 23.15% respectively since the beginning of the year [4]. - Other notable performers include the Huaxia CSI Electric Grid Equipment ETF, which has increased by 16.16%, and the Guotai CSI Semiconductor Materials Equipment ETF, which has risen by 19.49% [4]. - The strong performance of the underlying indices, such as SGE Gold 9999 and non-ferrous metals, has provided direct support for the rapid expansion of these ETFs [4]. Group 3: Thematic ETFs as Investment Tools - The recent trend shows that investors prefer to use ETFs to participate in thematic market opportunities, which are often linked to clear industrial logic or economic conditions [6]. - ETFs offer a transparent and efficient way for investors to track overall sector performance, especially in a market characterized by thematic dominance and stock performance divergence [6]. - The diversification of ETF holdings helps mitigate the impact of individual stock volatility, aligning with the needs of investors looking to make concentrated investments at the beginning of the year [6].

Core Insights - The A-share commercial aerospace and non-ferrous metals sectors have entered a phase of wide fluctuations, with related index funds experiencing significant tracking errors and volatility [1][3] - Fund managers have taken measures to suspend large subscriptions over 1 million yuan for certain thematic index funds due to the challenges posed by rapid market movements [4][7] Fund Performance and Flows - In January, the Southern CSI Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals ETF saw net inflows exceeding 18 billion yuan, with several other thematic ETFs attracting over 10 billion yuan each [2] - By the end of January, multiple thematic ETFs, including the Southern CSI Non-ferrous Metals ETF and the Guotai CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment ETF, surpassed 20 billion yuan in scale [2] Market Volatility and Management Challenges - The recent volatility in popular sectors has led to significant fluctuations in fund net values, with some satellite-themed index funds rising over 8% on January 23, only to drop over 7% by January 26 [3] - Tracking errors for certain index funds have increased, with some exceeding 1% in January, compared to less than 0.5% in the previous month [3][4] Operational Strategies - Fund managers are advised to implement refined operations and disciplined execution to manage tracking errors effectively, especially during periods of high volatility [5][6] - Strategies include phased investments, algorithmic trading, and prioritizing high liquidity core assets to mitigate impact costs [6] Recommendations for Fund Management - It is suggested to adopt a "core + satellite" sampling replication method to ensure high liquidity and weight in core assets while adjusting cash reserves dynamically based on market conditions [6] - Establishing a multi-dimensional prevention and response mechanism is crucial for managing fund flows and tracking accuracy [6]

资产配置 | 动态跟踪 风险偏好主导资产表现，权益关注风格切 换 ——资产配置月报 202602 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 提 名 沃 什 不 改 美 元 信 用 弱 化 格 局 ： | 2026-02-03 | | --- | --- | | 20260202 多资产配置周报 | | | 预期的变化利好中盘蓝筹：20260126A 股 | 2026-01-28 | | 风格及行业配置周报 | | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2026-01-04 | | ——资产配置月报 202601 | | 有关分析师的申 ...

万国黄金集团 中信证券认为，贵金属将受益于货币属性和避险情绪共振延续强势。值得一提的是，此前，万国黄金集 团发布公告，预期2025年度公司拥有人应占溢利约14亿至15亿元，同比增长约143%至161%。根据董事 会目前所得资料，预期溢利增加主要是由于黄金产品销售量及价格上升所致。 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 15.73 1.06 7.23% 9.54% 6.34% 3.20% 0.00% 3.20% 6.34% 9.54% 13.27 13.74 14.20 14.67 15.14 15.60 16.07 09:30 10:30 12:00/13:00 14:00 16:10 0 81万 162万 244万 万国黄金集团(03939)再涨超8%，截至发稿，涨6.2%，报15.58港元，成交额3.53亿港元。 消息面上，截至2月4日，现货黄金盘中重回5000美元/盎司关口。瑞银策略分析师在研究报告中指出， 从长期视角看，此次金价回调反而为市场注入健康动能。近日，美联储理事米兰表示，美联储今年需要 降息不止100个基点，很期待凯文.沃什担任美联储主席后的表现。不过，里士满联储主席巴金强调，在 通胀尚未完全回落 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that gold prices have rebounded strongly, with spot gold surpassing $5000, reflecting a daily increase of over 2% and a rebound of nearly $600 from this week's low [1] - The geopolitical tensions in the region, particularly involving the U.S. military and Iran, are contributing to the rising gold prices [1] - International investment banks indicate that the fundamental demand for gold remains unchanged, driven by global central bank purchases and increased private investment in gold for asset diversification [1] Group 2 - Silver prices are supported by sustained industrial demand, leading institutions to remain optimistic about the rebound potential for both gold and silver prices [1] - As of the latest update, several gold stocks have seen significant increases, with China Gold International rising by 5.13%, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining up by 3.89%, Zijin Mining International increasing by 3.13%, and the International Gold Group up by 3.07% [2]

（原标题：?黄金多头们的福音! 美国1月"小非农"远低于预期 招聘"急刹车"点燃降息预期） 智通财经APP获悉，最新的"小非农"数据显示，美国私营企业们1月新增就业岗位远远低于经济学家们 普遍预期，表明年初美国劳动力市场继续放缓。根据ADP研究机构(ADP Research)周三发布的美国私营 部门就业数据(该项数据号称"小非农")，在对前一个月数据向下进行小幅修正后，1月份的美国私营部 门就业人数仅仅增加了2.2万人，远远低于4.8万人这一经济学家们多次下调后的预测中值，并且低于机 构调查所覆盖的经济学家们给出的最低增长预期。"小非农"公布之后，"CME美联储观察工具"显示6月 与12月降息概率均有所扩张。 ?另一方面，对于上周五创下40年来最猛烈跌幅且波动率罕见超越比特币的全球传统避险资产——黄金 而言，大幅低于预期的美国就业数据可谓利多金价。就业市场意外走弱，进而意味着市场更愿意押注降 息/更鸽牌的美联储货币政策路径，也即意味着名义/实际利率下行趋势以及美元走弱趋势，进而推动持 有无息资产黄金的机会成本下降，从而利多金价;这一机制在黄金牛市主题交易中经常出现，即弱就业 数据带动降息押注、压低收益率从而推 ...