1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of the international soybean market remains relatively loose, with the US market showing a strong trend due to a significant increase in exports, while the Brazilian soybean market faces price pressure from the high - expected yield of new crops [4][5]. - The domestic supply and demand of soybean meal are relatively loose, with inventory pressure still present. Rapeseed meal inventory is at a relatively low level, but demand is also general, and prices lack obvious fluctuations [8]. - The recent strong performance of the US soybean futures is mainly driven by macro factors. Considering the fundamentals, the overall pressure is still relatively large, and the subsequent rebound space is expected to be limited [8]. - It is recommended to short the 05 contract, adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide straddles for options [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - The US soybean futures continued to show a strong upward trend, mainly influenced by macro - level positives. The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated, with a smaller increase than that of US soybeans, and the soybean crushing profit continued to face significant downward pressure. Rapeseed meal futures showed a strong upward trend, mainly following the rebound of soybean meal [3]. - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a downward trend. The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures increased, mainly affected by the repair of crushing profit and limited supply [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis International Market - The fundamentals of the US soybean market have changed little. The new - crop yield is expected to have a slight decrease in yield per unit, which provides some support for prices. However, in the absence of other positive factors, the upward space of the futures is limited [4]. - In South America, the supply - side influence has increased. Brazil's new - crop sowing has started, and the progress is fast, which is generally positive for the supply side. It is expected that the export volume will continue to increase significantly. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. Domestic Market - The domestic spot market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand. The oil refinery operating rate continues to increase, with sufficient supply and increased pick - up volume, and the inventory remains at a high level. The market trading volume has decreased, and the wait - and - see sentiment has increased [6]. - As of October 24, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 2.3674 million tons, the operating rate was 65.13%, the soybean inventory was 7.5129 million tons, a decrease of 174,100 tons or 2.26% from the previous week, and an increase of 1.9282 million tons or 34.53% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0546 million tons, an increase of 78,400 tons or 8.03% from the previous week, and an increase of 180 tons or 0.17% year - on - year [6]. - The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has gradually weakened recently. The oil refinery operating rate has decreased, the supply of rapeseed is relatively low, and the supply pressure still exists. It is expected that rapeseed meal will mainly oscillate [6]. 3.3 Macro - level Analysis - The market has recently been more affected by macro factors. The Sino - US negotiations have sent positive signals, causing the US soybean futures to rise significantly. After the short - term reaction to macro - level factors, the subsequent impact is expected to be relatively limited, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes [7]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The futures are showing a strong upward trend, driven by the increase in cost. However, the US soybean futures are more positively affected and have a larger increase than soybean meal [8]. - Overall, the international soybean market supply is still relatively loose. The smooth progress of Brazil's new - crop sowing is expected to maintain a relatively high yield, with limited subsequent price support and obvious overall pressure [8]. - The inter - monthly spread of soybean meal futures decreased today, mainly reflecting the impact of macro factors, and the subsequent decline space is expected to be limited. The decline of rapeseed meal's inter - monthly spread is also affected by that of soybean meal, and there may still be pressure in the future under the general demand situation [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to short the 05 contract. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. - Options: Use the strategy of selling wide straddles (the views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The price of peanuts in Henan continues to decline, while that in the Northeast remains stable. It is expected that the peanut spot market will be relatively weak in the short term [4]. - Some peanut oil mills have started purchasing, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 7,800 to 7,900 yuan/ton. The theoretical break - even price for oil mills is 7,920 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil are stable. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is strong, while peanut meal is weak in the short term [5]. - Recently, the price of common peanuts has declined, and the price of imported peanuts is stable. With an increase in supply and weak downstream demand, the peanut price will be relatively stable in the short term. The peanut futures will fluctuate at the bottom, and the peanut 01 contract will continue to show a weak oscillation [7]. 3) Summary by Sections First Part: Data - **Futures Disk**: For PK604, the closing price is 7,916, down 6 (-0.08%), with a trading volume of 302 (down 41.02%) and an open interest of 1,832 (up 8.40%); for PK510, the closing price is 8,136, down 2 (-0.02%), with a trading volume of 12 (down 76.92%) and an open interest of 425 (unchanged); for PK601, the closing price is 7,806, down 14 (-0.18%), with a trading volume of 52,811 (down 35.08%) and an open interest of 179,298 (down 2.02%) [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi are 8,600, 8,400, and 8,400 respectively, with no change. The prices of Rizhao peanut meal, Rizhao soybean meal, peanut oil, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil are 3,250, 2,990, 14,580, and 8,370 respectively, with the soybean meal price up 40 and the soybean oil price down 30. The import prices of Sudanese peanuts and Senegalese peanuts are 8,500 and 0 respectively [2]. - **Spread**: The spreads and their changes for PK01 - PK04, PK04 - PK10, and PK10 - PK01 are provided [2]. Second Part: Market Analysis - The price of peanuts in Henan has declined, with the price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan ranging from 3.45 - 3.6 yuan/jin, down 0.35 yuan/jin compared to the previous day. The price in Shandong Junan is 4.0 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of imported Brazilian new peanuts is stable at 9,200 yuan/ton. The price of peanuts in the Northeast is stable, with the price of 308 common peanuts in Jilin Fuyu and Liaoning Changtu at 4.1 yuan/jin [4]. - Some peanut oil mills have started purchasing, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 7,800 to 7,900 yuan/ton. The theoretical break - even price for oil mills is 7,920 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil are stable. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is strong, while peanut meal is weak in the short term [5]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: For the 01 and 05 peanut contracts, they are oscillating at a low level, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - **Calendar Spread**: Wait and see [9]. - **Options**: Sell and hold the pk601 - P - 7600 option [10]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - There are six figures including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the压榨 profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [13][16][20].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Group 2: Core Views - For the粕类 market, the current domestic fundamentals have little change, with sufficient arrivals, high soybean and bean meal inventories, and overall ample supply. Key factors to watch are the China - US negotiations and the sowing of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] - In the corn market, on the supply side, farmers' selling enthusiasm was initially low due to the decline in northern port corn prices but has slightly recovered this week in the Northeast. In North China, the risk of bad grain has decreased, and the pace of wet grain sales has slowed. On the demand side, various inventories are low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 2932 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.03%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.43%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 2990 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 2900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Latest News**: As of October 24, the soybean planting rate in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 season reached 60.05%, up 16.48 percentage points from last week. As of October 19, the weekly export volume of Canadian rapeseed was 12.4 tons, and the cumulative export volume in the 2025/26 season was 107.9 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58.3% [2] Corn and Corn Starch - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2112 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.98%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2425 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.66%) [4] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - **Latest News**: As of October 23, Ukraine had harvested 424 hectares of sunflower seeds (82% of the planned area), with a yield of 783.8 tons; 152 hectares of soybeans, with a yield of 350.2 tons; and 127 hectares of rapeseed, with a yield of 331 tons [4] Group 4: Market Analysis Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The domestic supply of bean meal is relatively loose, and future market trends depend on China - US negotiations and the sowing of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] Corn and Corn Starch - On the supply side, farmers' selling enthusiasm in the Northeast has slightly recovered, and the pace of wet grain sales in North China has slowed. On the demand side, inventory levels are low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] Group 5: Strategy - The strategy for both the粕类 and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Group 6: Figures - The report includes 44 figures related to the prices, production, consumption, inventory, and basis of bean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, and corn starch, with data sources from Steel Union Data and Huatai Futures Research Institute [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2) Core Views - **Cotton**: The global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the new year, with short - term external markets under pressure. In China, although the old - season cotton inventory is low, the new cotton supply is increasing. The short - term upward space for cotton prices is limited, but the medium - to - long - term outlook is relatively optimistic [2] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle, with the raw sugar price hitting a new low. The short - term rebound space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the downward space is also restricted [4][5] - **Pulp**: The pulp supply remains loose, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [7][8] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: On the futures side, the cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. On the spot side, the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,690 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,833 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. From October 17 - 23, 2025, the US graded and inspected 153,500 tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, with 77.6% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements [1] - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, due to the delay of key data release and the expected loose supply - demand pattern, the short - term external market is under pressure. In China, the old - season cotton inventory is low, but the new cotton supply is increasing. The short - term upward space for cotton prices is limited, and the medium - to - long - term depends on the implementation of the US cotton production reduction and export goals [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. There is a high hedging pressure on the short - term disk, and there is a possibility of a callback. In the medium - to - long - term, the cotton price outlook is relatively optimistic [2] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: On the futures side, the sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,445 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.02%) from the previous day. In Guangxi Nanning, the spot price was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Yunnan Kunming, it was 5,725 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. In September 2025, China's refined sugar production was 539,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%, and from January - September, it was 10.984 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [3] - **Market Analysis**: The raw sugar price hit a new low due to the strong supply from Brazil and the expected global sugar surplus. The short - term rebound space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the downward space is also restricted as the import intensity is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [4][5] - **Strategy**: Neutral. There is no obvious short - term driver, and Zhengzhou sugar may follow the weak trend of the external market. Attention should be paid to whether it can form a phased support around 5,400 [5] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: On the futures side, the pulp 2601 contract closed at 5,258 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. In Shandong, the spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,990 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pulp remains loose, with the overseas production reduction plan having limited impact. The demand is weak, with low paper mill operating rates and over - capacity in the paper industry. The downstream paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [7] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market: The night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. The latest export inspection report indicated that the U.S. soybean export inspection volume in the week ending October 16, 2025, was higher than the market - expected range, up 45% from the previous week. Brazil's new - season soybean sowing is progressing orderly. The domestic soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to poor domestic crushing margins and subdued buying enthusiasm [2]. - The oil market: The night - session of oils showed a weak trend. The MPOA estimated a 10.77% increase in Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20, and AmSpec data showed a 2.5% month - on - month increase in palm oil exports during the same period. The expected reduction in palm oil production has not materialized, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in October has strengthened. The supply - side expectation of loosening is suppressing the short - term oil market [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8234, 9100, 9748, 2932, 2400, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were 40, - 22, - 13, - 1, - 40, and 26, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.49%, - 0.24%, - 3.15%, - 0.03%, - 1.64%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values, such as the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil changing from - 288 to - 290 [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4381 (ringgit/ton), 1084 (cents/bu), 51 (cents/lb), and 298 (dollars/ton) respectively. The price changes were - 20, 42, 0, and 4, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.45%, 4.01%, 0.76%, and 1.29% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals in different regions have different percentage changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.47%, while the spot price of Dongguan soybean meal decreased by 0.67% [1]. - **Basis**: The current spot basis of various varieties also shows different values, such as the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil being 236 [1]. Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the import and crushing profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil has changed from - 528 to - 417 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 27144, 600, 7540, 42382, 4050, and 0 respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [1]. Industry Information - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate reached 36% of the expected level, and the sowing area of the first - crop corn in 2025/26 in the central - southern region reached 55% of the planned area [2]. - As of the week ending October 23, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1061375 tons, down from the previous week [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is influenced by Sino - US trade negotiations. The market trading sentiment has returned to rationality. The short - term cost - push logic has replaced the supply logic, and the soybean meal futures price shows an oscillatingly strong trend. There is no clear trend direction in the short - term, and it will run oscillatingly [5][6]. - The palm oil market is affected by the weak international oil market. The core contradiction lies in the significant inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil and the weak domestic demand. The short - term futures price is oscillatingly weak and is testing the support of the previous low [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term (within a week): oscillating; Medium - term (two weeks to one month): oscillating; Intraday: oscillatingly strong; Reference view: oscillatingly strong [5]. - **Core Logic**: With the initial consensus of Sino - US trade negotiations, the market focuses on China's soybean purchase quantity and schedule from the US. The domestic near - end market is under supply pressure and cautious downstream procurement. The far - end market focuses on soybean purchase progress and South American weather. The market expects trade policy adjustment and the boost of the fourth - quarter demand season. The cost - push logic has replaced the supply logic in the short - term [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillatingly weak; Reference view: oscillatingly weak [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The weak international oil market has intensified the bearish sentiment in the domestic palm oil market. Although the rebound of CBOT soybean oil and the rise of crude oil prices provide some support, they cannot offset the negative impact of supply pressure. The core contradiction is the significant inventory pressure in Malaysia and weak domestic demand [7].

2025年10月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆偏强，或带动连粕反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏弱 | 6 | | 白糖：外弱内强 | 7 | | 棉花：新棉成本上移支撑棉花期价 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：维持调整 | 10 | | 生猪：短期现货偏强，再累库格局 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 28 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,100 | -0.24% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance, with different trends for each commodity. Some commodities are facing downward pressure, while others are in a state of shock or rebound [1][6]. - International and domestic factors, such as trade relations, supply and demand, and macro - economic conditions, have significant impacts on the prices of agricultural products [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, the market showed mixed fluctuations, and there is a high probability of inventory accumulation for Malaysian palm oil in October. - **Logic**: Due to profit - taking, US soybeans and soybean oil fell last Friday. Domestic oils and fats showed mixed fluctuations yesterday, with soybean oil being stronger and palm oil and rapeseed oil being weaker. The US government shutdown affected data updates, and the US soybean harvest is about 80% complete, with a high probability of a decrease in yield. Brazilian new - season soybeans are expected to increase by 3.6% year - on - year. Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.78% from the 1st to the 25th of October, and exports decreased. There is a high probability of inventory accumulation in October [6]. - **Outlook**: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate weakly, while soybean oil will fluctuate. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [6]. Protein Meals - **View**: Positive signals from China - US relations led to a jump in US soybean prices and pressure on domestic soybean meal. - **Logic**: Internationally, China - US trade relations dominate the market. US soybean new crops are on the market, and Brazilian soybean exports have increased. Domestically, short - term profit margins for soybean crushing are gradually recovering, and the market lacks upward momentum. In the long term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a possible small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate between 1060 - 1080. The price of soybean meal is under short - term pressure, and the decline depends on China's purchase volume of US soybeans. Consider soybean meal 1 - 5 reverse spreads and option double - buying strategies [7]. Corn and Starch - **View**: The increase in wet corn supply led to a decline in both futures and spot prices. - **Logic**: The current decline in corn prices is due to high arrival volumes. Although there were short - term factors supporting the price last week, such as low inventory of grain - using enterprises and slow harvesting progress, there are still downward drivers in the future, including high yields in the Northeast, low - quality grain pressure in North China, and weak demand in the sales area [9]. - **Outlook**: The market will fluctuate. Hold short positions and pay attention to the profit - taking rhythm. In the long term, consider a near - far month reverse spread strategy [9]. Pigs - **View**: The reduction in supply at the end of the month led to a rebound in pig prices. - **Logic**: In the short term, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased, but the rebound in pig prices has suppressed the enthusiasm for second - fattening. In the medium term, the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is starting to decline, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [10]. - **Outlook**: The market will fluctuate. In the near - term, the price is still weak, while in the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Consider reverse spread strategies [10]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The price is consolidating at a high level, waiting for new guidance. - **Logic**: The recent rebound is due to a short - term bottom and relatively low valuation. The slow registration of warehouse receipts has become a focus for bulls. The supply pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to be stable in the fourth quarter. However, due to the large proportion of macro factors, it is difficult to determine the price trend [12]. - **Outlook**: Due to high macro uncertainty, the price is expected to fluctuate and find a bottom [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures market shows signs of weakness. - **Logic**: The decline in the price of raw material butadiene and high production volumes are the main reasons for the weakness. Although downstream demand is increasing, the growth rate is lower than the production growth rate, resulting in high inventory levels [14]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and there is a possibility of hitting a new low this year [14]. Cotton - **View**: Cost support makes the cotton price relatively strong, but pay attention to macro - level disturbances. - **Logic**: In the north of Xinjiang, the cotton purchase is almost finished, while in the south, the purchase price is rising, increasing the processing cost. The new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, and the commercial inventory is starting to accumulate. Pay attention to the progress of China - US economic and trade consultations. The price may face pressure above the range of 13600 - 13800 yuan/ton [14]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, but pay attention to the upper - level pressure [14]. Sugar - **View**: The sugar price is fluctuating at a low level. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, leading to a downward trend in prices. In the short - term, the international market is relatively loose, and the domestic market has a marginal reduction in supply pressure. However, the price may face downward pressure again when the northern hemisphere enters the new sugar supply period [15]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long - term. Consider short - selling on rebounds [15]. Pulp - **View**: The financial trading atmosphere has driven up the pulp futures price, but the futures - spot price gap remains. - **Logic**: Although the pulp futures price has rebounded, the spot price has not increased significantly. The demand for softwood pulp is weak, and there is an over - supply situation for hardwood pulp. The futures price is close to the spot price, and it is difficult for the futures to have a premium. However, pay attention to the impact of restricted waste pulp imports on the market [16]. - **Outlook**: The market will fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see, as changes in waste pulp may cause market fluctuations [16]. Double - Glued Paper - **View**: More paper mills are stabilizing prices, and the market is trading within a range. - **Logic**: The supply pressure remains due to new production capacity in the South China region. The demand from downstream printing factories is weak, and the decline in the price of upstream wood pulp has limited support for the cost. Although some paper mills are trying to stabilize prices, the market expectation is still pessimistic [17]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral strategies. Pay attention to new factors that may affect market sentiment [17]. Logs - **View**: Negative factors have led to a decline in log prices with reduced positions. - **Logic**: Informationally, the expected cancellation of the special port fee has led to long - position liquidation. Fundamentally, the concentrated arrival of goods at ports and weak sales of related products have put pressure on the spot market. The market is expected to be in a weak state, with a high probability of inventory accumulation in the future [20][21]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with a weakening fundamental situation and repeated information - based games [21].

1. Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil may weaken in the short - term due to production growth, export slowdown, and potential inventory increase. After the MPOB report, it may gradually recover supported by production and inventory decline and the Indonesian B50 topic. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures may follow the trend of Malaysian palm oil. [1] - For soybean oil, the market is optimistic about the China - US meeting, but actual shipments need time. CBOT soybeans and soybean oil are strong in the short - term, but domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient and demand is weak, with limited upside potential. [1] Meal Industry - With the warming of China - US relations, the expectation of China purchasing US soybeans is increasing, and US soybean prices are rising. The cost of domestic soybean imports is supported, and domestic soybean meal is expected to trend stronger. [2] Livestock (Pig) Industry - The recent rebound in pig prices is due to secondary fattening. Supply and demand are in a tight game in the short - term, but there will be more supply pressure in November and December. Current arbitrage holding risk is high. [4] Corn Industry - In the corn market, the supply in the Northeast is sufficient and prices are stable, while in North China, farmers' selling enthusiasm is affected by price changes. Overall, the market is under selling pressure, and the demand side is still mainly for rigid needs. [7] Sugar Industry - Brazil's gasoline price cut dashed the expectation of a lower sugar - making ratio, and the global sugar supply outlook is loose. Domestic sugar prices are relatively low and have limited downward momentum. [11] Cotton Industry - The downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flow have improved, and the rigid demand for cotton raw materials is resilient. New cotton costs have increased, but there is also hedging pressure, and short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range. [12] Egg Industry - The supply of eggs is sufficient. Demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices may rise slightly first and then decline due to the strong supply and weak demand situation. [15] 3. Summary by Categories Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On October 27, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8480 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.36%) from October 24. The futures price of Y2601 was 8234 yuan, up 40 yuan (0.49%). The basis of Y2601 was 246 yuan, down 10 yuan (-3.91%). [1] - **Palm Oil**: On October 27, the spot price in Guangdong was 9030 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.33%). The futures price of P2601 was 9100 yuan, down 22 yuan (-0.24%). The basis of P2601 was - 70 yuan, up 52 yuan (42.62%). [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: On October 27, the spot price in Jiangsu was 10050 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.50%). The futures price of OI601 was 9748 yuan, down 13 yuan (-0.13%). The basis of OI601 was 302 yuan, up 63 yuan (26.36%). [1] Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2960 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 2932 yuan, down 1 yuan (-0.03%). The basis of M2601 was 28 yuan, up 1 yuan (3.70%). [2] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2410 yuan, down 10 yuan (-0.41%). The futures price of RM2601 was 2335 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.43%). The basis of RM2601 was 75 yuan, down 20 yuan (-21.05%). [2] Livestock (Pig) Industry - **Futures**: The price of the main contract basis was 120, up 345 (153.33%). The price of the live - hog 2511 contract was 12065 yuan/ton, up 575 yuan (5.00%), and the 2601 contract was 12330 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan (1.27%). [4] - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 12450 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; in Shandong, it was 12400 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. [4] Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2601 contract was 2112 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (-0.98%). The basis was 28 yuan, up 1 yuan (3.70%). [7] - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2601 contract was 2425 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan (-0.66%). The basis was 85 yuan, up 16 yuan (23.19%). [7] Sugar Industry - **Futures**: The price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5445 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (-0.02%); the 2605 contract was 5399 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.02%). [11] - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, it was 5725 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-0.09%). [11] Cotton Industry - **Futures**: The price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13575 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan (0.26%); the 2601 contract was 13565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.18%). [12] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14690 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan (0.23%); the CC Index of 3128B was 14833 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (0.20%). [12] Egg Industry - **Futures**: The price of the egg 11 contract was 2918 yuan/500KG, up 42 yuan (1.46%); the 01 contract was 3327 yuan/500KG, up 25 yuan (0.76%). [15] - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan (1.08%); the egg - chicken price was 2.65 yuan/feather, up 0.05 yuan (1.92%). [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in agricultural futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on October 27, with all major contracts closing higher [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures rose by 2.19%, closing at 1,083.50 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures increased by 1.12%, closing at 428.00 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures saw a rise of 2.63%, closing at 526.00 cents per bushel [1]