Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance by continuously injecting liquidity into the banking system, as evidenced by the recent MLF operations and reverse repos, aimed at stabilizing market expectations and supporting government bond issuance [1][2][3]. Group 1: MLF Operations - On September 25, the PBOC announced a 600 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, marking the seventh consecutive month of increased MLF issuance [1]. - In September, the PBOC conducted two reverse repo operations, resulting in a total net liquidity injection of 300 billion yuan, maintaining the same scale as August [2]. - The MLF operations have shifted to a multi-price bidding mechanism, allowing financial institutions to better manage their liquidity needs and enabling the PBOC to monitor liquidity conditions more effectively [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Coordination - The PBOC's actions are seen as a coordinated effort with fiscal policy, particularly during a peak period for government bond issuance, to ensure smooth market operations [2]. - Analysts expect that the PBOC will continue to utilize various monetary policy tools, including MLF and reverse repos, to inject liquidity into the market, with potential for further quantitative easing in the fourth quarter [3]. - There is an increasing market demand for the PBOC to resume government bond trading operations, which could provide more flexible and effective monetary easing compared to monthly reverse repo operations [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the bond custody data for August 2025, showing that the total bond custody increased less month - on - month. The custody of interest - rate bonds and financial bonds increased, while that of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased. The custody of major bond types by different institutions showed a differentiated pattern, with allocators increasing and traders and overseas institutions decreasing. The bond market leverage ratio increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [1][2][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased less month - on - month. As of the end of August 2025, the total bond custody of CCDC and SHCH was 174.54 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 1.51 trillion yuan month - on - month, 0.24 trillion yuan less than the increase at the end of July [1][11]. - The custody of interest - rate bonds and financial bonds increased, while that of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased. In August 2025, the interest - rate bond custody was 120.72 trillion yuan, accounting for 68.72% of the inter - bank bond market custody, with a net increase of 1.80 trillion yuan; the credit bond custody was 18.69 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.80%, with a net decrease of 1424 million yuan; the non - policy financial bond custody was 12.81 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.39%, with a net increase of 2.875 billion yuan; the inter - bank certificate of deposit custody was 20.38 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.99%, with a net decrease of 0.36 trillion yuan [1][11]. 3.2 Bond Holder Structure and Changes 3.2.1 Month - on - Month Changes in Custody by Institution - Allocators' custody of major bond types continued to increase month - on - month, while traders and overseas institutions' custody continued to decrease. Policy banks continued to increase their holdings of interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds; commercial banks and credit unions increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds but decreased their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit; insurance institutions, securities companies, and non - legal entity products increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds but decreased their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit and credit bonds; overseas institutions continued to reduce their holdings of interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds [2][27]. 3.2.2 Month - on - Month Changes in Custody by Bond Type - Treasury bond custody continued to increase month - on - month. Commercial banks continued to significantly increase their holdings, while non - legal entity products continued to reduce their holdings. - Local government bond custody continued to increase month - on - month. Policy banks continued to increase their holdings, while commercial banks changed from increasing to reducing their holdings. - Policy financial bond custody continued to increase month - on - month. Commercial banks continued to increase their holdings, while policy banks changed from increasing to reducing their holdings. - Inter - bank certificate of deposit custody continued to decrease month - on - month. Except for policy banks increasing their holdings, other major institutions reduced their holdings. - Enterprise bond custody continued to decrease month - on - month, and major institutions all reduced their holdings. - Medium - term note custody continued to increase month - on - month. Commercial banks continued to significantly increase their holdings, while securities companies continued to reduce their holdings. - Short - term financing and super - short - term financing custody changed to a decrease, with commercial banks being the main reducing entity. - Non - publicly - oriented debt instrument custody continued to decrease month - on - month, with non - legal entity products being the main reducing entity [3][29][30]. 3.2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bond Types - As of the end of August 2025, the holder structure of treasury bonds: commercial banks accounted for 69.23%, overseas institutions 5.53%, policy banks 10.77%, non - legal entity products 8.13%, securities companies 2.63%, insurance institutions 2.55%, and credit unions 1.16% [34]. - The holder structure of policy financial bonds: commercial banks accounted for 55.07%, non - legal entity products 31.86%, overseas institutions 2.87%, credit unions 3.30%, insurance institutions 2.04%, securities companies 1.13%, and policy banks 3.74% [36]. - The holder structure of local government bonds: commercial banks accounted for 74.22%, non - legal entity products 9.42%, policy banks 9.98%, insurance institutions 4.89%, securities companies 0.93%, credit unions 0.54%, and overseas institutions 0.02% [38]. - The holder structure of enterprise bonds: non - legal entity products accounted for 54.74%, commercial banks 32.20%, securities companies 9.12%, insurance institutions 3.02%, policy banks 0.56%, credit unions 0.28%, and overseas institutions 0.08% [40]. - The holder structure of medium - term notes: non - legal entity products accounted for 61.57%, commercial banks 23.62%, securities companies 4.88%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 3.40%, policy banks 3.14%, insurance institutions 2.35%, overseas institutions 0.22%, others 0.55%, and credit unions 0.27% [42]. - The holder structure of short - term financing and super - short - term financing: non - legal entity products accounted for 62.19%, commercial banks 20.57%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 7.53%, policy banks 5.01%, securities companies 4.20%, others 0.28%, credit unions 0.17%, overseas institutions 0.05%, and insurance institutions 0.00% [45]. - The holder structure of non - publicly - oriented debt instruments: non - legal entity products accounted for 59.93%, commercial banks 23.84%, policy banks 2.30%, credit unions 2.15%, others 4.06%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 2.00%, securities companies 1.11%, overseas institutions 4.49%, and insurance institutions 0.12% [47]. - The holder structure of inter - bank certificates of deposit: non - legal entity products accounted for 65.50%, commercial banks 28.44%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 3.11%, securities companies 1.02%, policy banks 1.08%, others 0.31%, insurance institutions 0.07%, credit unions 0.03%, and overseas institutions 0.44% [49]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage Ratio Observation As of the end of August 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - to - be - bought pledged repurchase was 11.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.2 trillion yuan month - on - month. The leverage ratio was 106.88%, up 0.07 percentage points month - on - month and down 0.65 percentage points year - on - year [50].

Core Insights - The "Southbound Bond Connect" has significantly enhanced the accessibility of global asset allocation for domestic investors since its launch four years ago, marking a key milestone in China's bond market opening [1][2][8]. Group 1: Market Growth and Performance - As of August 2025, the Shanghai Clearing House has hosted 35,000 bonds with a total custody balance of 48.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19% [2]. - The scale of the "Southbound Bond Connect" has expanded dramatically, with the current custody size being over six times that of May 2022 and more than a hundred times that of its first month in September 2021 [2][3]. - The monthly custody data shows fluctuations in the number of bonds and custody scale, with notable growth in the latter half of 2024, peaking at 5,518.7 billion yuan in December 2024 [3][4]. Group 2: Institutional Participation and Strategy Diversification - The participant base for the "Southbound Bond Connect" has diversified, now including state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, insurance asset management, public funds, and private institutions, which has led to more refined investment strategies [5]. - The introduction of products linked to the "Southbound Bond Connect" by public funds has lowered the entry barriers for individual investors, promoting financial inclusivity [5]. Group 3: Policy Support and Infrastructure Development - Continuous policy support and infrastructure improvements have been crucial for the growth of the "Southbound Bond Connect," with measures introduced to enhance transaction convenience and risk management [8][10]. - The expansion of participant categories to include securities firms and insurance companies in July 2023 is a significant policy move aimed at broadening global asset allocation channels [8]. Group 4: Green Finance and Regional Cooperation - The "Southbound Bond Connect" has become a vital channel for domestic institutions to invest in international green bonds, with a 60% year-on-year increase in green bond investments [9]. - The deepening financial cooperation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has amplified the impact of the "Southbound Bond Connect," facilitating cross-border financial rule alignment [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the "Southbound Bond Connect" will continue to evolve, with potential breakthroughs in asset class expansion and digital currency settlement as the internationalization of the yuan accelerates [10]. - The initiative is seen as a pivotal step towards transforming China from a major bond market to a strong bond market, emphasizing the importance of cross-border regulatory collaboration [10].

Group 1 - Typhoon Hagupit (Ragasa) has posed the biggest test for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since the implementation of the "no trading during typhoons" rule last year, with the stock market opening for trading under a signal 10 warning for the first time [4] - Despite many functions being able to work remotely, some IT systems and trading personnel are required to work in the office, leading to a surge in hotel bookings in Central and Admiralty, with luxury hotels like Mandarin Oriental and Four Seasons fully booked [4] - Some banks have opted to hold meetings online due to the typhoon, including the Hong Kong Fixed Income and Currency Forum 2025, which was originally scheduled to be held in person [4] Group 2 - Zijin Gold International plans to globally offer approximately 348.99 million shares, accounting for 13.30% of total shares post-issue, with a maximum fundraising target of about HKD 24.98 billion, potentially reaching HKD 28.73 billion if the over-allotment option is fully exercised [5] - Xipuni plans to globally offer 10.6 million H-shares, accounting for 18.02% of total shares post-issue, with a maximum fundraising target of approximately HKD 314 million [5]

Macroeconomic Data Overview - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2025 is reported at 5.20%, a decrease from 5.40% in the previous quarter and an increase from 4.70% in the same period last year [1] - The Manufacturing PMI for August 2025 is at 49.40, slightly up from 49.30 in July and up from 49.10 year-on-year [1] - The Non-Manufacturing PMI for August 2025 is at 50.30, showing a slight increase from 50.10 in July and unchanged from the previous year [1] - The total social financing scale for August 2025 is reported at 25,668 billion yuan, a significant increase from 11,307 million yuan in July and a decrease from 30,323 million yuan year-on-year [1] - The CPI for August 2025 shows a year-on-year decrease of 0.40%, compared to 0.00% in July and 0.60% last year [1] - The PPI for August 2025 shows a year-on-year decrease of 2.90%, an improvement from a decrease of 3.60% in July and a decrease of 1.80% last year [1] Commodity Investment Reference - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that stock prices are currently overvalued but stated that financial stability risks are not high at this time [2] - The U.S. White House's cryptocurrency committee executive director expects the cryptocurrency market structure bill to pass by the end of the year, which aims to consolidate various legislative efforts [2] - The SEC chairman expressed hopes for a new "innovation exemption" rule to be introduced by the end of the year, allowing cryptocurrency companies to launch products more easily [2] Metals - As of September 23, the SPDR Gold Trust holds 32,169,273.34 ounces (1,000.57 tons) of gold, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] - International precious metal futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.58% to $3,796.9 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 0.12% to $44.265 per ounce [4] Steel Industry - A notice from five departments outlines a growth stabilization plan for the steel industry for 2025-2026, emphasizing the acceleration of key iron ore projects and supporting compliant mining enterprises [6] - The steel industry aims for an average annual growth rate of 4% over the next two years, with a strict prohibition on new capacity [7] Energy and Chemicals - International oil prices have risen sharply, with U.S. crude oil main contract up by 2.20% to $63.65 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up by 1.85% to $67.19 per barrel [8] - The Russian government is discussing extending the export ban on gasoline producers until October and is considering a possible ban on diesel exports [8] - Kuwait's oil minister noted a recovery in global oil demand as oil inventories fall below the five-year average [8] Agricultural Products - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council indicates that upward price potential is limited due to weak demand, while uncertainties in export supply provide some support [10] - Brazil's agriculture ministry announced the reopening of the EU market for Brazilian chicken following an outbreak of avian influenza [10] Financial Market Overview - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 276.1 billion yuan on September 23, with a net withdrawal of 10.9 billion yuan for the day [11] - The People's Bank of China governor met with Ray Dalio to discuss international economic conditions and financial market dynamics [12] - Concerns over local government special bond risks have drawn attention from the National People's Congress, highlighting the rapid growth of government debt [13] Stock Market News - The A-share market experienced wide fluctuations, with major banks showing stability and significant gains in semiconductor equipment and photolithography concepts [27] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 0.7%, with declines in consumer, real estate, and healthcare sectors [27] - Since the release of the "merger and acquisition six guidelines," over 2,800 A-share companies have disclosed M&A activities, with a notable increase in transactions in the semiconductor sector [27]

Core Insights - The national general public budget revenue for the first eight months of this year reached 14.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with the growth rate improving by 0.2 percentage points compared to the first seven months [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 12.11 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, marking the first positive cumulative growth [1] Tax Revenue Growth - Major tax categories maintained positive growth, with total tax revenue (excluding export tax rebates) increasing by 2% in the first eight months [2] - Key tax types included domestic value-added tax at 47,389 billion yuan (up 3.2%), domestic consumption tax at 11,523 billion yuan (up 2%), corporate income tax at 31,477 billion yuan (up 0.3%), and personal income tax at 10,547 billion yuan (up 8.9%) [2] - Manufacturing and financial sectors showed rapid tax revenue growth, with manufacturing accounting for over 30% of total tax revenue and experiencing a growth rate exceeding 5% [2] Economic Factors Supporting Tax Revenue - The increase in tax revenue is attributed to a series of effective policies and a stable economic environment, leading to high-quality development [4] - The capital market's active trading contributed significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,800 points and A-share total market value exceeding 100 trillion yuan [4] - Tax revenue from the securities industry grew over 70%, while insurance industry tax revenue increased by more than 10% [4] Compliance and Taxpayer Awareness - There has been a noticeable enhancement in taxpayers' awareness of lawful and honest tax payment, supported by tax authorities' efforts in promoting compliance and fair taxation [5] - The increase in tax revenue in recent months is also influenced by a lower base of tax revenue from the previous year [5] Fiscal Expenditure and Policy Outlook - National general public budget expenditure has been growing, with social security and employment spending increasing by 10% and education spending by 5.6% in the first eight months [8] - The overall fiscal situation is improving, indicating a positive economic outlook, with expectations for continued favorable trends in fiscal revenue and expenditure [8]

央行公告称，9月23日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2761亿元7天期逆回购操作，投标量2761亿元，中标量2761亿元。Wind数据显示，当日2870亿元 逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼109亿元。 1. 公开市场操作 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 银行间市场周二资金面与上日变动不大，整体仍均衡，惟跨季资金价格稍涨，因需求升温，此外央行公开市场14天期逆回购仅恢复操作一日后再次暂停。 月内资金充裕，存款类机构隔夜回购加权利率维持在1.41%附近；匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价亦略降至1.41%。非银机构质押存单和信用债融入 隔夜资金的报价基本还在1.50%-1.55%区间。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为4.14%。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.68%附近，较上日微升。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 普遍上行 | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a structural rotation, with growth styles recently underperforming while value styles are gaining traction. This indicates a potential shift in investment strategies and opportunities in different sectors [5][7][22]. Market Performance - The market index showed a decline during the day, reaching a low of 4.3 stars but rebounded to 4.2 stars by the end of the trading session [1][2]. - Large-cap stocks experienced a smaller decline compared to mid and small-cap stocks, which saw more significant drops [3]. - Growth styles faced a more considerable downturn, while value styles overall increased [4][7]. Sector Analysis - The banking index saw an overall increase, although it had previously reached a high valuation before correcting to a normal valuation [8][9][10]. - The recent market structure favors active selection strategies, as evidenced by the slight increase in active selection portfolios [12][13]. Market Trends - The market is characterized by structural bull markets where certain sectors lead while others lag, with each bull market cycle featuring different leading sectors [14]. - Bull markets are not continuous; they often exhibit patterns of rapid increases followed by corrections, indicating the need for patience from investors [15][16]. - The A-share and Hong Kong markets have shown 2-3 cycles of significant short-term increases followed by consolidation or corrections [17][18]. Investment Strategy - For investment strategies, the index-enhanced advisory portfolio has returned to normal valuation, suggesting a pause in new investments while maintaining existing holdings until a low valuation is reached again [21]. - The active selection portfolio continues normal investments, while the monthly salary treasure portfolio, which consists of 40% stocks and 60% bonds, is recommended for stable market participation [44][45]. Personal Pension Investment - The pension index funds, specifically the CSI A500 and CSI Dividend, have returned to normal valuations, leading to a pause in new investments until they reach undervalued levels again [31][32]. - The performance of these pension index funds has shown profitability, with the CSI A500 up by approximately 20% and the CSI Dividend up by about 4% over the recent months [37].

不是说好降息利好股市，不是说好降息之后会有大牛市的么？为何美国宣布降息25个基点之后，A股为何出现两连跌呢？特别是在19号，股市出现了大幅度 下跌，大部分蓝筹都吃了瘪，大盘一度下探到3800点，最终单日上证指数跌了1.15%。 你可能会说，不是一直在说美国经济出问题了么？非农都已经爆冷成什么样了，而股市又是经济的晴雨表，为何美股持续往上走呢？股市是经济的晴雨表确 实没错，但股市还是经济的蓄水池。 美国现在通胀又抬头了，在通胀的情况下，大家肯定会着急寻找抗击通胀的资产。股神巴菲特近日也是一改近几年的风格，不再增加现金储备，开始大幅度 增持日本股市。不用怀疑，现在除了黄金跟比特币，全球最好的资产依然是美股。 我一直在跟大家说，一定会分清楚这一轮降息，到底是预防式降息，还是应对式降息，因为只有应对式降息，那才是真正的大放水。 如果你看看美联储的资产负债表，你就知道他们现在一方面靠降息放水，另外一方面还在抛售资产回收美元，以达到收水的目的。 我们A股这边持续下跌，美股却走出了两连涨的气势，黄金则是继续震荡。如果你看过我18号当天的预测视频，你应该就可以明白了。那我今天就再次把背 后的逻辑给大家用大白话说清楚，希望可以 ...

Monetary Policy Insights - The press conference did not involve short-term monetary policy adjustments, but there remains a possibility of future interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions[3] - The central bank's current stance is supportive, implementing moderately loose monetary policy based on macroeconomic data assessments[3] Financial Sector Achievements - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's financial sector has made significant progress in reforming the financial system and enhancing service quality to the real economy[4] - The total assets of the banking sector, along with the scale of the stock and bond markets, rank among the highest globally, indicating progress towards becoming a financial powerhouse[4] Capital Market Developments - The new securities law and related regulations have strengthened the legal framework of China's capital markets, contributing to a fair and just market environment[8] - The total market capitalization of A-shares has surpassed 100 trillion yuan, reflecting a solid foundation for a long-term bull market[8] Technology Sector Impact - The market capitalization of the technology sector now exceeds 25% of the total A-share market, indicating its growing importance compared to traditional sectors like banking and real estate[9] - Enhanced awareness among listed companies regarding shareholder returns has led to significant increases in dividends and share buybacks, contributing to wealth effects in the market[9] Investor Engagement and Risk Management - Reforms in public fund management have improved investor experience and increased the participation of long-term funds in A-shares, with a 30% increase in holdings compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan[10] - The regulatory focus on risk prevention and investor protection is expected to reduce market volatility and enhance investor confidence[11]