Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The commodity market in the first half of 2025 is significantly driven by macroeconomic factors, reflecting weak demand from China and the U.S., as well as changes in overseas policies and geopolitical situations. The second half of the year will continue to focus on economic and policy trends, with domestic "anti-involution" movements influencing market perceptions of capacity adjustments and commodity value reassessment [3][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the commodity market experienced notable macro-driven changes, with geopolitical tensions pushing precious metals to new highs while domestic supply conditions pressured many commodities to near historical lows [6][20]. - The market can be divided into three phases: pre-February with concerns over U.S. policy uncertainty, March to mid-May with rising commodity risk sentiment, and post-mid-May following the Geneva agreement between China and the U.S. that led to a rebound in previously low-priced commodities [8][9][10]. - The market's basic reflection of policy environments and past economic changes indicates that spot prices for some assets are relatively effective, but intuitive trading based on insufficient analysis poses risks [3][19]. Group 2: U.S.-China Economic Cycle - The economic conditions of China and the U.S. significantly influence commodity pricing, with both countries experiencing a phase of weak demand, leading to overall market pressure [28][30]. - The cyclical relationship between China and the U.S. suggests that while there are opportunities for commodity rebounds, the overall adjustment cycle has not yet concluded [27][28]. - The "anti-involution" policies in China are interpreted as a direction to help industries escape competitive dilemmas, leading to a potential revaluation of commodity prices [26][43]. Group 3: Potential Trading Logic - Energy prices are sensitive to supply expectations, with OPEC+ decisions impacting market trends. The recent increase in production by OPEC+ has created a bearish trend, while U.S. policy shocks have further depressed prices [53][55]. - In the non-ferrous metals sector, U.S. trade policies, particularly regarding copper, are crucial for pricing dynamics, with inventory shifts affecting market conditions [60][61]. - The renewable energy sector is undergoing adjustments due to low-price competition, necessitating industry self-discipline and policy regulation to restore balance [66][70]. Group 4: Agricultural Commodities - Weather conditions and trade flows are critical for agricultural commodities, with the summer season being pivotal for crop growth. Predictions indicate that extreme weather may not significantly impact yields this year [71][74]. - Changes in trade policies are likely to alter pricing logic, with potential shifts in trade flows affecting domestic pricing strategies for agricultural products [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non - US regions will show a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading, and the repeated negotiations on reciprocal tariffs will also disturb copper prices. The main contract should focus on the 78000 support level [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected that the main contract price will fluctuate widely in the range of 2950 - 3250 this week. Mid - term, it is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices. For aluminum, the current aluminum price is running at a high level, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro disturbances, it is expected to be under short - term high - level pressure. The main contract should focus on the 20800 pressure level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected that the market will be mainly in a weak and volatile state, with the main contract running between 19400 - 20200 [5]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the mine end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern; in a pessimistic scenario, the zinc price may decline. It is advisable to short at high prices in the medium - to - long term, with the main contract referring to the range of 21500 - 23000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, but the market sentiment is currently stable. The nickel fundamentals change little, and the cost support for refined nickel weakens. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to the range of 118000 - 126000 [10]. Tin - In the short term, macro disturbances are large. It is recommended to continue holding short positions established at previous high prices, and pay attention to the resumption progress in Myanmar and US tariff policies [13]. Stainless Steel - Currently, macro uncertainties increase, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The nickel - iron price remains low, weakening cost support. The supply - side production cuts are less than expected, and demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. In the short term, the market will be mainly in a volatile state, with the main contract running between 12500 - 13000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the fundamentals still face pressure, and the balance surplus may increase recently. The market will be in a state of game between sentiment and fundamentals, and it is expected to be mainly in a range - bound state, with the main contract referring to the range of 60000 - 65000 [18]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.13% to 78720 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss was - 583 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.18 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.30% to 20790 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 150.5 yuan/ton to - 1324 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons month - on - month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20100 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2511 - 2512) increased by 25 yuan/ton to 65 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 25.50 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.13% to 22430 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased by 86.06 yuan/ton to - 1524 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, an increase of 3.57 million tons month - on - month. In May, the refined zinc import volume was 2.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 1.29% to 122150 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 was - 202 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased by 0.11% to 904 yuan/nickel point [10]. Fundamental Data - In June, China's refined nickel production was 31800 tons, a decrease of 3220 tons month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume was 19157 tons, an increase of 10325 tons month - on - month [10]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.64% to 266700 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss decreased by 848.75 yuan/ton to - 17105.21 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 470 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In May, the tin ore import volume was 13449 tons, an increase of 3588 tons month - on - month. The SMM refined tin production was 14840 tons, a decrease of 360 tons month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) decreased by 0.39% to 12700 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2508 - 2509) decreased by 85 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - In April, the 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in China (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 6.83 million tons month - on - month. The 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in Indonesia (Qinglong) remained unchanged at 36.00 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.16% to 63750 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread (2507 - 2508) decreased by 1460 yuan/ton to - 1600 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, an increase of 6010 tons month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 93875 tons, a decrease of 145 tons month - on - month [18].

索通发展（603612）公告，预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为4.5亿元到5.4亿元， 同比增加1,335.37%到1,622.45%；预计归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为4.5亿元到 5.4亿元，同比增加300.39%到380.47%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [14][15]. Core Views - The report indicates that the gold market will continue to rise due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts [14]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum may weaken, but the long-term supply-demand balance is expected to tighten [15]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate due to a tight supply situation, while antimony prices are projected to remain weak in the short term but supported by long-term supply constraints [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a weekly increase of 3.75%, outperforming other sectors [23]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included rare earths (+18.65%), magnetic materials (+11.28%), and silver (+8.35%) [23]. 2. Precious Metals - London gold price was $3352.10 per ounce, up $20.20 from July 4, with a 0.61% increase [34]. - London silver price reached $37.5 per ounce, increasing by 0.62% from July 4 [34]. - The report notes that the Federal Reserve's differing views on inflation may impact precious metals, but a bullish trend is anticipated [6][34]. 3. Copper and Aluminum - LME copper closed at $9640 per ton, down $240 from July 4, a decrease of 2.43% [41]. - Domestic aluminum price was 20760 RMB per ton, with a slight increase of 0.05% [42]. - The report highlights that short-term copper and aluminum prices may face downward pressure due to weak demand [15][41]. 4. Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin price was 266820 RMB per ton, down 0.37% from July 4 [43]. - Antimony price was 185500 RMB per ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.80% [15][43]. - The report suggests that while demand is weak, supply constraints may support tin prices in the future [15]. 5. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in the gold sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold, and in the copper sector, including Zijin Mining and Western Mining [15][17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the rare earth market is experiencing improved supply and demand dynamics, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxide, driven by frequent bidding from magnet manufacturers and concerns over supply reductions [4] - Precious metals are supported by shifting interest rate expectations and strong U.S. non-farm payroll data, enhancing the attractiveness of gold as an investment [5] - Copper prices are fluctuating at high levels, influenced by tariff expectations and macroeconomic factors, with a potential support level identified at approximately 9,350 USD per ton [5] - Aluminum prices are expected to trend upward due to easing trade tensions and a decrease in overall inventory levels [6] - Antimony prices are stabilizing around 190,000 CNY per ton, with a potential for a stocking-up trend as supply tightens [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 5,199.61, with a weekly high of 5,230.85 and a low of 3,700.90 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals: LME copper decreased by 0.02%, aluminum increased by 0.97%, zinc increased by 0.70%, lead decreased by 1.32%, and tin increased by 0.74% [18] - Precious metals: COMEX gold increased by 1.79%, silver increased by 5.82%, NYMEX palladium increased by 14.68%, and platinum decreased by 7.32% [18] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes: copper increased by 22,839 tons, aluminum increased by 20,687 tons, zinc decreased by 2,326 tons, lead decreased by 3,512 tons, tin decreased by 126 tons, and nickel increased by 3,167 tons [26]

Group 1: Non-Bank Financial Sector - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice on July 11 to strengthen the long-term assessment of state-owned commercial insurance companies, adjusting the evaluation method for "return on net assets" and "capital preservation and appreciation rate" to a combination of current year, 3-year, and 5-year indicators with respective weights of 30%, 50%, and 20% [2][6][21] - The new assessment method aims to encourage insurance funds to focus on long-term stable investments, which is expected to enhance the long-term investment returns of insurance companies and alleviate investment pressures [2][9][21] - The insurance sector is anticipated to see an increase in equity asset allocation, while maintaining a generally stable asset allocation style due to the pressure on liability costs and the need for quality assets to achieve incremental investment returns [8][9][21] Group 2: Market Strategy and Performance - The A-share market continued to rise, with the ChiNext index and the CSI 1000 index both increasing by approximately 2.4%, driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" trend and positive changes in domestic policies [3][12] - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: technology growth sectors benefiting from both domestic and external demand, industries likely to improve due to the "anti-involution" trend, and financial sectors with high dividend advantages [3][13] - The real estate sector saw a significant increase of 6.12%, indicating a potential recovery as market sentiment improves ahead of important meetings [18][19] Group 3: AI and Office Software Industry - The AI + office software industry is at a turning point, transitioning from tool intelligence to workflow reconstruction, driven by breakthroughs in large model technology [3][15] - Major players like Microsoft dominate the high-end market, while domestic companies leverage localized data advantages and policy support to rapidly rise in the market [15][16] - Investment opportunities are recommended in companies such as Kingsoft Office, Foxit Software, and others, as the industry is expected to continue expanding due to the deepening of digital transformation and the demand for domestic alternatives [15][16] Group 4: Oil and Petrochemical Sector - The oil and petrochemical sector is supported by seasonal demand for refined oil, with WTI crude oil prices rising by 3.05% recently [24][26] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to provide short-term support for oil prices, while OPEC+ plans to increase production may lead to downward pressure on prices in the medium term [24][26] - The report suggests focusing on domestic oil companies with strong earnings resilience, such as China National Petroleum, China Petroleum & Chemical, and China National Offshore Oil [26] Group 5: Precious and Industrial Metals - The gold market is expected to perform well in the medium to long term due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and a weakening dollar [28][30] - Copper prices may face short-term volatility due to impending tariffs, but medium-term demand is expected to remain strong due to industrialization in emerging markets [28][30] - The aluminum market is anticipated to see upward price movement due to a strong supply-demand imbalance, with recommendations for companies like Tianshan Aluminum [28][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are under pressure due to the implementation of a 50% tariff on copper by the U.S., which is expected to take effect in late July or early August. This has led to a significant increase in U.S. copper prices while London and Shanghai copper prices have declined [5][9]. - The report anticipates that global copper inventory transfers will conclude, providing some support for copper prices despite the short-term pressure from tariffs. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate between 77,000 and 79,000 CNY per ton in the near term [5]. - The aluminum market is characterized by low inventory levels, with aluminum prices experiencing high volatility. The report notes a slight increase in alumina prices and a decrease in aluminum production margins [5][26]. - Lithium prices are rebounding from the bottom, driven by a "reverse involution" trend, with expectations for supply-side reductions and seasonal demand support [5][78]. - Cobalt prices may rebound due to an extended export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to tighten supply in the fourth quarter [5][88]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report discusses macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. unemployment claims, and the announcement of copper tariffs by the U.S. government [9]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices fell by 2.43%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 1.63%. U.S. copper prices increased by 10.30%. Inventory levels showed a mixed trend, with London copper inventory rising by 14.12% and Shanghai copper inventory declining by 3.70% [26]. 2.2 Aluminum - London aluminum prices increased by 0.08%, and Shanghai aluminum prices rose by 0.36%. Inventory levels for both London and Shanghai aluminum increased, while production margins decreased [26][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices decreased, while zinc prices saw a slight increase. Inventory levels for lead and zinc showed mixed trends, with lead inventory declining and zinc inventory increasing [49]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices fell, and nickel prices also experienced a decline. Inventory levels for both metals showed a downward trend [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices, including lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene, saw increases, while hydroxide prices slightly decreased. The report notes ongoing challenges in production margins for lithium [78]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, but the extended export ban from the DRC may create opportunities for price rebounds in the future [88].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the copper and aluminum industries, with copper showing a stable upward trend and aluminum stabilizing at the bottom [14][15][16]. Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing a slight price decline, with LME copper down 1.92% to $9,663.00 per ton, while domestic copper inventory has increased slightly [15]. - The aluminum market shows a minor price increase, with LME aluminum up 0.17% to $2,602.00 per ton, and a decrease in domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory [16]. - Gold prices have increased by 0.71% to $3,370.30 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [17]. - The rare earth sector is expected to see price increases due to tightening supply and rising demand, with strategic government actions enhancing the sector's outlook [39]. - The antimony market is stabilizing, with expectations of price recovery supported by reduced domestic production and increased demand from new regulations [40]. - Molybdenum prices are rising, supported by low inventory levels and strong demand from the steel industry [41]. - Lithium prices have shown a mixed trend, with carbonate prices increasing while hydroxide prices have slightly decreased [44]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper shows a robust upward trend, while aluminum is stabilizing at lower levels. Precious metals are accelerating due to fiscal expansion policies [14]. 2. Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals Update 2.1 Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.92% to $9,663.00 per ton, with slight increases in domestic inventory and production rates expected to rise [15]. 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum price increased by 0.17% to $2,602.00 per ton, with a decrease in domestic inventory [16]. 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 0.71% to $3,370.30 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions [17]. 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints and increasing demand, with government actions enhancing market conditions [39]. 4. Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals Update 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for rare earth elements are expected to rise due to tightening supply and strategic government actions [39]. 4.2 Antimony - Antimony prices are stabilizing, with expectations of recovery supported by reduced production and new regulations [40]. 4.3 Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are increasing due to low inventory levels and strong demand from the steel industry [41]. 4.4 Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 2.43% to 63,200 CNY per ton, while hydroxide prices decreased slightly [44].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Germany's major industry associations urge Europe not to be intimidated by the US's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods and to seek equal solutions while reducing dependence on the US market [1] - Dirk Jandura, president of the German Wholesale and Foreign Trade Association, states that the tariff announcement is part of Trump's negotiation strategy and emphasizes the need for calm negotiations [1] - The German Automotive Industry Association warns of escalating risks in transatlantic trade relations, highlighting that German companies are already facing billions of euros in additional costs [1] Group 2 - Wolfgang Niedermark from the Federation of German Industries expresses concerns that using tariffs as a political tool will increase costs, threaten jobs, and weaken the global competitiveness of EU and US products [1] - Current US tariffs include a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on automobiles, and a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods [2] - Recent data from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany shows a 1.4% month-on-month decline in German exports in May, with exports to the US dropping by 7.7%, the lowest level in over three years [2]

Group 1 - The core issue in the US-EU trade negotiations revolves around tariffs on automobiles and agricultural products, with a potential temporary trade agreement being sought [1][2] - If the negotiations succeed in capping agricultural tariffs at or below 10% and making concessions on automobile tariffs, it could significantly reduce global supply chain pressures and improve corporate profit outlooks [1][4] - The EU is pushing for a 10% tariff on agricultural exports, while the US has proposed a 17% tariff, indicating a gap in expectations that needs to be bridged [3] Group 2 - The EU is focusing on automotive tariffs and has suggested delaying the implementation of retaliatory measures against US tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are set to automatically resume soon [2][3] - Any potential agreement is heavily dependent on the personal views of former President Donald Trump, who has not publicly commented on the ongoing negotiations [2][3] - The outcome of the trade talks will have significant implications for global stock markets, with a positive result potentially leading to a continuation of low volatility and upward trends [4] Group 3 - The US is considering sector-specific tariffs on industries such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, with the final results of investigations under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act expected soon [5][6] - The EU is preparing countermeasures in case negotiations fail, including potential tariffs on $24.5 billion worth of US goods and an additional list targeting up to €72 billion [7] - The EU's countermeasures are strategically aimed at politically sensitive US states and industries, indicating a calculated approach to trade relations [7]