Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report presents the market liquidity situation on March 19, 2026, including the trading volume, position amount and trading - position ratio of different sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product and black building materials sectors, as well as the changes compared with the previous trading day [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity The report shows the trading volume, position amount, trading - position ratio and their changes of various sectors on March 19, 2026, including stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product and black building materials sectors [1][2]. II. Stock Index Plate On March 19, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 1032.123 billion yuan, a change of +12.99% compared with the previous trading day; the position amount was 1551.033 billion yuan, a change of - 0.14%; the trading - position ratio was 65.18% [1]. III. Treasury Bond Plate On March 19, 2026, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 361.574 billion yuan, a change of +20.16% compared with the previous trading day; the position amount was 870.997 billion yuan, a change of +1.38%; the trading - position ratio was 39.94% [1]. IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) On March 19, 2026, the trading volume of the basic metal plate was 723.615 billion yuan, a change of +38.52% compared with the previous trading day; the position amount was 619.436 billion yuan, a change of - 3.45%; the trading - position ratio was 123.41%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 827.076 billion yuan, a change of +62.94% compared with the previous trading day; the position amount was 464.475 billion yuan, a change of - 5.60%; the trading - position ratio was 217.47% [1]. V. Energy Chemical Plate On March 19, 2026, the trading volume of the energy chemical plate was 1239.714 billion yuan, a change of +19.28% compared with the previous trading day; the position amount was 595.547 billion yuan, a change of +4.03%; the trading - position ratio was 197.76% [1]. VI. Agricultural Product Plate On March 19, 2026, the trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 378.968 billion yuan, a change of - 7.21% compared with the previous trading day; the position amount was 659.487 billion yuan, a change of - 0.41%; the trading - position ratio was 50.97% [1]. VII. Black Building Materials Plate On March 19, 2026, the trading volume of the black building materials plate was 170.464 billion yuan, a change of - 12.76% compared with the previous trading day; the position amount was 318.750 billion yuan, a change of - 1.29%; the trading - position ratio was 48.63% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The stock market showed an overall volatile adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 4000-point mark during the session. Nearly 5000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets declined, and the trading volume on the day was 2.13 trillion yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.02%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.11% [1]. - Due to the potential for the US-Iran conflict to last longer than expected, Middle Eastern oil has entered a state of passive production cuts due to limited storage capacity, coupled with rising shipping costs, leading to a significant increase in the oil price center. The imbalance between supply and demand in the commodity market may lead to a tightening of the US dollar money supply, an increase in the US dollar index, a decline in most currency exchange rates, and a general rise in bond market yields [1]. - The US non-farm payrolls data for February decreased by 92,000, significantly lower than the expected increase of 55,000, and the non-farm payrolls data for the previous few months was also significantly revised downward, leading to a significant increase in market concerns about the US entering stagflation, which has significantly impacted the valuations of global technology stocks [1]. - The release of the article "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" has triggered market concerns about AI squeezing out traditional economies. The software, services, finance, and other sub - sectors involved in the article are the areas where the Chinese and US stock markets have declined recently, and the market reaction has been intense. This topic may continue to ferment and amplify market volatility before the policy side clearly shifts to focus on social fairness after AI implementation [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed with gains. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.10%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03%. The People's Bank of China conducted 13 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on March 19, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%, the same as the previous rate. According to qeubee statistics, there were 24.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases due in the open market, resulting in a net withdrawal of 11.5 billion yuan [1]. - The current environment of precise liquidity adjustment, improving fundamentals, and rising inflation is generally negative for the bond market. Short - term geopolitical conflicts have led to a significant increase in the oil price center, accelerating the expected pace of improvement in domestic inflation data. In the short term, it will mainly be in a volatile adjustment state, with long - term interest rates under more pressure, while short - term rates are relatively stable supported by the capital side [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market was volatile and adjusted, with most stocks falling. The decline was affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US non - farm payrolls data, and concerns about AI squeezing out traditional economies. The market outlook is volatile [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed with gains. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital side showed certain changes. The bond market is expected to be in a volatile adjustment state in the short term, with long - term interest rates under more pressure [1][2]. Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On March 19, 2026, compared with March 18, 2026, IH fell 2.19% (from 2,958.6 to 2,893.8), IF fell 3.21% (from 4,651.4 to 4,502.2), IC fell 5.13% (from 8,086.0 to 7,671.0), and IM fell 1.94% (from 8,080.4 to 7,923.8) [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index fell 1.53% (from 2,961.4 to 2,916.2), the CSI 300 Index fell 1.61% (from 4,658.3 to 4,583.3), the CSI 500 Index fell 2.71% (from 8,096.4 to 7,877.1), and the CSI 1000 Index fell 2.31% (from 8,096.6 to 7,909.2) [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.03% (from 102.50 to 102.53), TF rose 0.06% (from 106.00 to 106.06), T rose 0.06% (from 108.27 to 108.33), and TL rose 0.08% (from 110.98 to 111.07) [3]. Market News - The Iranian Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Larry Janani, was killed in an Israeli attack. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that China is shocked by this and has always opposed the use of force in international relations, and the killing of Iranian national leaders and attacks on civilian targets are unacceptable [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of various stock index futures [7][8][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][15][16][18][19]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts present the trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between other major currencies [21][22][23][25][26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current supply - demand situation of nickel is weak but in line with expectations. Macro and policy factors are the main drivers of nickel price trends. The nickel ore contraction policy in Indonesia will support nickel prices, while geopolitical conflicts push up the US dollar index and suppress nickel prices. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the future [4]. - The supply growth expectation of stainless steel is stronger than the demand side, but cost support still exists. Macro and policy impacts are the main drivers of stainless steel trends. In the short term, stainless steel will follow the nickel price trend and is expected to maintain an oscillating state [6]. Group 3: Summary of Nickel Market Analysis - On March 19, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 134,940 yuan/ton and closed at 131,550 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.94% compared with the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 398,352 (+137,766) lots, and the open interest was 186,757 (-11,470) lots [1]. Trend Analysis - Nickel is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy has led to an expected future shortage of nickel ore supply, pushing up nickel ore prices and supporting nickel prices. Fundamentally, supply is increasing and inventories are piling up, while demand from stainless steel plants is stable and new - energy vehicle production and sales are in line with expectations but in a consumption off - season [1]. Macro and Nickel Ore Factors - The Fed's hawkish signal in the March interest - rate meeting strengthened the US dollar index, putting pressure on commodities including nickel. The intensification of the US - Iran conflict also suppressed commodity trends. In the nickel ore market, Philippine mine tender prices are rising, and in Indonesia, the RKAB quota approval is slow with strong premiums for domestic trade ore [2]. Spot Market - The main contract of Shanghai nickel continued to decline, and the spot premium was slightly adjusted up in the morning. Some downstream enterprises increased their purchasing willingness when the price fell below 130,000 yuan, but many still held a wait - and - see attitude. The supply pressure of refined nickel remained, and the inventory of LME nickel decreased [3]. Strategy - For nickel, the strategy is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Group 4: Summary of Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On March 19, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,020 yuan/ton and closed at 13,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 154,529 (+58,084) lots, and the open interest was 123,112 (-4,171) lots [5]. Trend Analysis - The price trend of stainless steel is mainly affected by nickel prices. In terms of fundamentals, the supply of stainless steel crude steel is expected to increase in March, and the consumption is slowly recovering, with expected further improvement in April, which provides bottom support for prices [5]. Spot Market - The confidence in the stainless steel spot market has weakened due to the decline in the futures market and the fall in high - nickel pig iron prices. The 304 stainless steel price was adjusted down, while the 201 stainless steel price rose due to the steel mill's price - support news [6]. Strategy - For stainless steel, the strategy is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On March 19, 2026, the four major stock index futures contracts all declined. The market is in a continuous shock pattern due to the frustration of loose expectations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Index and Spot Data Tracking - **Futures Index Data**: On March 19, the closing prices of the four major stock index futures contracts all declined. IF fell 1.31%, IH fell 1.29%, IC fell 2.37%, and IM fell 1.9%. The trading volume of some contracts increased, and the positions of some contracts also changed. For example, the total trading volume of IF increased by 12,184 lots, and the total position increased by 6,721 lots [1][2]. 3.2. Basis of Futures Index - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures contracts is presented in the form of a graph, showing the changes in the basis of the current month, next month, current quarter, and next - quarter contracts over a period of time [4]. 3.3. Changes in Positions of the Top 20 Members of Futures Index - The changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures contracts are provided. For example, in the IF2603 contract, long positions decreased by 16,112 lots, and short positions decreased by 16,933 lots [5]. 3.4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [6]. 3.5. Important Drivers - **Geopolitical Tensions**: The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has continued to escalate. Iran has carried out missile attacks on Israeli targets, and the US President has made statements regarding the conflict and oil - related issues [7][8]. - **Central Bank Decisions**: During the "Super Central Bank Week," the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Swedish Central Bank all announced to keep interest rates unchanged. Market expectations of interest rate hikes have increased [8]. 3.6. Market Conditions of A - shares and Hong Kong Stocks - **A - shares**: The A - share market fluctuated and adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.39% to 4,006.55 points. The market turnover was 2.06 trillion yuan, and more than 4,900 stocks declined. Some sectors such as non - ferrous metals, fertilizers, and pesticides fell, while oil and gas, coal, and CPO concepts strengthened [9]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: Hong Kong stocks fell sharply with increased trading volume. The Hang Seng Index fell 2.02% to 25,500.58 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.19%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.58%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of more than HK$26 billion [9]. 3.7. Regulatory and Policy - related Information - The central bank has deployed key tasks for this year, including continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintaining market liquidity, and promoting the resolution of debt risks of financing platforms. The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for the capital market [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The latest shift of the Fed's monetary policy towards a hawkish stance, combined with geopolitical conflicts pushing up the re - inflation expectation, has led to a marginal contraction in the global liquidity expectation. The market has entered a window of staged risk trading, with risk assets in the global market generally falling on the day. Attention should be paid to domestic policy responses [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Geopolitical conflicts have escalated. The US - Israel - Iran conflict continues to intensify, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that the war between Iran and the US and Israel has entered a "new stage". Israeli refineries and military targets were hit by Iranian missiles [1] - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various monetary policy tools to maintain sufficient liquidity, guide and regulate interest rates, and promote the resolution of debt risks of financing platforms. It will also maintain the stable operation of financial markets [1] - In the spot market, the three major A - share indexes adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.39% to 4006.55 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.11%. Most sector indexes declined, with only coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and public utilities rising. The trading volume on the day was 2.3 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.44% to 46021.43 points [1] - In the futures market, the current - month contracts were all at a premium. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [1] Strategy - The shift of the Fed's monetary policy towards a hawkish stance and geopolitical conflicts have led to a marginal contraction in global liquidity expectations. The market has entered a risk - trading window, and attention should be paid to domestic policy responses [2] Macro - economic Charts - Charts show the relationships between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [5][7][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on March 19, 2026: the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.02%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.11%, the CSI 300 Index fell 1.61%, the SSE 50 Index fell 1.53%, the CSI 500 Index fell 2.71%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 2.31% [12] - Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures: IF volume was 153370 (+12184), open interest was 282146 (+6721); IH volume was 68881 (+14363), open interest was 110567 (+6105); IC volume was 208430 (+38330), open interest was 290332 (+9835); IM volume was 282196 (+28223), open interest was 394837 (+5025) [16] - Charts show the open interest, latest open - interest ratio, and foreign - capital net open - interest quantity of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [5][17][20] - The basis of stock index futures: for IF, the current - month contract basis was 3.35 (+10.28); for IH, it was 3.97 (+6.80); for IC, it was 9.31 (+19.74); for IM, the current - month contract basis was 14.57 (+30.76) [36][39] - The inter - delivery spread of stock index futures: various spreads and their changes are provided for different contract combinations of IH, IF, IC, and IM [46][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran is heating up, and the US labor market remains resilient [1] - The prices of gold and silver are expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the near future [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran is heating up, with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announcing that the war with the US and Israel has entered a "new stage" [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 8,000 to 205,000, a new low for the year, indicating that the US labor market remains resilient [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On March 19, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,089.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1,062.00 yuan/gram, a change of -4.63% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots [2] - On March 19, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 19,392.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 17,984.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -9.99% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 774,107 lots, and the open interest was 227,107 lots [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 19, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.245%, a change of -0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.461%, a change of -0.19 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On March 19, 2026, on the Au2604 contract, the long positions decreased by 4,414 lots compared to the previous day, while the short positions decreased by 1,228 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 437,374 lots, a change of 102.70% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2606 contract, the long positions decreased by 835 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,286 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,254,826 lots, a change of 41.43% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,066.99 tons, a decrease of 2.57 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,187 tons, a decrease of 77 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On March 19, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 47.19 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was 1,009.73 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 59.05, a change of 5.96% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 63.40, a change of 1.60% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On March 19, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 75,754 kilograms, a change of 59.89% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 448,610 kilograms, a change of -73.11% from the previous trading day [7] - The delivery volume of gold was 11,872 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 30 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: The market risk sentiment has increased, and the demand for gold investment may slightly decrease. Therefore, the gold price is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the near future, with the Au2604 contract oscillating between 1,000 yuan/gram and 1,100 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The price of silver has also declined along with gold. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2606 contract oscillating between 16,000 yuan/kilogram and 18,000 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, in the medium - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips as using stock index as a long - term alternative has certain excess returns [1] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium - long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [1] 3. Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures Market Performance - On March 19th, the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.39% to 4006.55 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.02% to 13901.57 points, the ChiNext Index fell 1.11% to 3309.1 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 2.44% to 1339.03 points. The market turnover was 2127.3 billion yuan, an increase of 66.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - In terms of industry sectors, coal (+1.82%), petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.34%), and public utilities (+0.34%) performed well; non - ferrous metals (-6.1%), steel (-4.08%), and basic chemicals (-3.75%) performed poorly. In terms of market strength, IH>IF>IM>IC, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 504/30/4953 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of - 34.3 billion, - 31.3 billion, 13.1 billion, and 52.5 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 46.2 billion, - 21.4 billion, +32 billion, and +35.5 billion yuan respectively [1] Basis and Basis Annualized Yield - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 45.83, 54.89, 24.25, and 8.83 points respectively, and the basis annualized yields were - 6.9%, - 8.3%, - 6.3%, and - 3.61% respectively, with the three - year historical quantiles being 59%, 30%, 18%, and 25% respectively [1] Trading Strategy - In the medium - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [1] (2) Treasury Bond Futures Market Performance - On March 19th, treasury bond futures strengthened slightly. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.03%, TF rose 0.06%, T rose 0.07%, and TL rose 0.1% [1] Cash Bonds - The current active contract is the 2606 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250024.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.021, and an IRR of 1.34%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250014.IB, with a yield change of +0bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.041, and an IRR of 1.59%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250025.IB, with a yield change of +0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.055, and an IRR of 1.65%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 220008.IB, with a yield change of +1.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.164, and an IRR of 1.99% [1] Funding Situation - In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 1.3 billion yuan and withdrew 2.45 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 1.15 billion yuan [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium - long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [1] (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that at the beginning of March, the prosperity of various sectors declined slightly [7]

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 20 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2604 | 23150 | 22690 | 23150 | 22640 | -740 | -3.16 | 57712 | -8199 | | 沪锌 | 2605 | 23110 | 22705 | 23150 | 22640 | -730 | -3.11 | 104612 | 9448 | | 沪锌 | 2606 | 23210 | 22730 | 23210 | 22670 | -755 | -3.21 | 34696 | 2092 | 021-60635740 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics. Different sectors show different trends, and investors are advised to be cautious and make decisions based on specific market conditions [5][6][7] - For some sectors, there are short - term uncertainties and potential risks due to geopolitical conflicts, while others are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [9][13][15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力合约 rose by 0.10%, 0.07%, 0.06%, and 0.03% respectively [5] - The central bank conducted 130 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 115 billion yuan on that day [5] - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The market is expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [6][7] 3.2 Equity Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures主力合约 fell by 1.31%, 1.29%, 2.37%, and 1.90% respectively [9] - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and there is room for repair. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait on the sidelines [9] 3.3 Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold主力合约 fell by 4.63%, and the silver主力合约 fell by 9.99% [11] - The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait on the sidelines [12][13] 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, prices are dominated by industry supply - demand logic. Rebar prices may rebound, but the space may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [15] 3.5 Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. With the end of key meetings, iron ore demand may increase, but the effect may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [17][18] 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. Coking coal supply may increase, and demand is weak. Coke supply is stable, and demand may increase. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions [20] 3.7 Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon主力合约 rose by 0.10%, and the silicon iron主力合约 fell by 0.34%. The cost of ferroalloys is fluctuating upward, and the supply is still in a surplus state. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [22][24] 3.8 Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the intensification of the US - Israel - Iran war. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. However, Israel's decision not to attack Iranian energy facilities and the joint statement of six countries to escort the Strait of Hormuz led to a correction in crude oil prices. It is recommended to wait on the sidelines for the crude oil主力合约 [25][26][27] 3.9 Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the prices of PP in Hangzhou and LLDPE in Yuyao rose. In the short term, polyolefins show a contraction trend. In the long term, the supply pressure will gradually increase, and the demand shows the characteristics of "rising production but cautious procurement". It is recommended to wait on the sidelines [28][29] 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber主力合约 rose by 1.17%. The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to maintain a strong - side shock pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of plant maintenance, crude oil price trends, and changes in tire export orders [30][31] 3.11 Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber主力合约 fell by 2.51%, and the 20 - grade rubber主力合约 fell by 2.08%. The Middle East conflict increases the cost of synthetic rubber, strengthening the substitution demand for natural rubber. However, the expected new rubber supply and slow demand recovery limit the price increase. It is expected to show a wide - range shock pattern [33][35] 3.12 PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC主力合约 rose by 0.39%. The short - term cost support is strong, and the price shows a strong - side shock pattern, but the upside is restricted by high inventory. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm and demand recovery strength in the medium term [36][37] 3.13 Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea主力合约 fell by 0.32%. The current market is facing high supply and policy constraints. The demand is weak, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of export policies and the demand connection after April [38][39] 3.14 PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2605主力合约 fell. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed. The supply is expected to be tight, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. PX is expected to enter the de - stocking stage. However, due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, the price may fluctuate and there is a risk of correction [40] 3.15 PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2605主力合约 fell. The processing fee was adjusted, and the downstream demand was weak. The price is mainly affected by the cost side. Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, it is recommended to operate with caution [41] 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol主力合约 rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The short - term trend is stronger than other polyester varieties, but due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, caution is needed [42] 3.17 Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2606主力合约 rose slightly. The supply is gradually increasing, and the terminal demand is stable. The low inventory and strong cost may provide support. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, plant dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [43][44][45] 3.18 Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605主力合约 fell. The cost support weakened, and the polyester demand was weak. Due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, it is recommended to participate with caution [46] 3.19 Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the soda ash主力 2605 fell. The supply is at a high level, the inventory is shrinking, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate and adjust, and the fluctuation range is expected to narrow [47][48] 3.20 Glass - On the previous trading day, the glass主力 2605 fell. The production line is shrinking, the inventory reduction speed is slowing down, and the downstream demand recovery is slow. The cost pressure is still there, and the futures price may fluctuate [49] 3.21 Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the caustic soda主力 2605 rose slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price of alumina is rising, and the demand for caustic soda is expected to be good. Attention should be paid to overseas plant dynamics, export orders, domestic inventory changes, and plant maintenance progress [50][51][52] 3.22 Pulp - On the previous trading day, the pulp主力 2605 rose. The port inventory is decreasing, and the downstream demand is weak. The market sentiment is expected to stabilize. The fluctuation risk of softwood pulp is relatively high, and hardwood pulp is relatively stable [53][54] 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate主力合约 fell. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and the supply is in a tight balance. The demand in the consumer end is improving, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term fluctuation may increase [55] 3.24 Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper主力合约 fell. The geopolitical conflict affects the market sentiment, and the supply pressure is large in the short term. However, the downstream demand is improving, which provides support for the price. The copper price is expected to run weakly [56][57][58] 3.25 Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum主力合约 and the alumina主力合约 fell. The supply pressure of alumina is increasing, and the cost support is strengthening. The aluminum production in the Middle East is affected, and the domestic consumption is recovering. The aluminum price is in a phased correction [59][60] 3.26 Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc主力合约 fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by the geopolitical conflict. The social inventory is increasing, and the zinc price is under pressure [61][62] 3.27 Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead主力合约 fell. The production of primary lead is increasing, and the demand for lead - acid batteries is recovering. However, the geopolitical risk affects exports, and the lead price is under pressure [63][64] 3.28 Tin - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin主力合约 fell. The geopolitical conflict affects the price, and the supply is gradually easing. The demand in the emerging fields provides support, and the inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support below, but attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuation [65][66] 3.29 Nickel - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures主力合约 rose. The geopolitical conflict affects the price, and the nickel ore supply is expected to be tight. The downstream demand is weak, and the refined nickel is in a surplus state. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [67] 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell, and the soybean oil main contract rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching 60%, and the high oil price provides support. The domestic soybean supply may be tight in the short term and relatively loose in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69] 3.31 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil closed higher. The export volume increased, and the domestic inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider reducing or closing long positions [70][71] 3.32 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed price rose. The domestic import policy has changed, and the inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil shows different trends. It is recommended to wait and see [72][73] 3.33 Cotton - On the previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly. The global cotton production is expected to decrease in the new season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long term, and the cotton price is expected to run strongly in the long term [74][75][76] 3.34 Sugar - On the previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly. The foreign sugar production is lower than expected, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The increase in oil price will affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil, and the long - term sugar price bottom is expected to rise [77][78] 3.35 Apple - On the previous trading day, the apple futures rose significantly. With the peak of Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, the demand is released, and the inventory is decreasing. The apple market is expected to run strongly [79] 3.36 Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, the live pig主力合约 fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions [80][81] 3.37 Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg主力合约 fell. The egg supply is expected to be at a high level in March, and the supply improvement in the far - month is worrying. It is recommended to hold short positions in the far - month lightly [82] 3.38 Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn主力合约 rose slightly, and the corn starch主力合约 was flat. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced. The demand for corn starch is improving, but the supply is abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of out - of - the - money put options when the price rises sharply [83][84][85] 3.39 Logs - On the previous trading day, the log主力 2605 rose. The supply of New Zealand logs is increasing, and the downstream demand is improving. The cost pressure is increasing, and the futures price is in a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to the external market quotation, shipping dynamics, and downstream consumption [86][87]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Amid the disturbance of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the stock index declined further yesterday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 4000 points. The central bank stated after the market to "firmly maintain the stable operation of financial markets such as stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange." Currently, considering internal and external factors, the stock index is expected to continue in a weak oscillation pattern. In the future, due to the overall economic tone meeting expectations, multiple policies continuing to work together to promote economic growth, abundant macro - liquidity, and capital market policies aiming to nurture a "slow - bull" market, the stock index is expected to have upward space. As the external geopolitical situation eases and market risk appetite recovers, it is expected to consolidate and resume an upward trend. Strategically, for the medium - to - long - term, one can consider building long positions by taking advantage of the stock index futures discount and pay attention to controlling positions [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Interest Rate and Bond Data - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a 0.06bp change; DR007 closed at 1.43 with a - 0.61bp change; GC001 closed at 1.30 with a - 6.00bp change; GC007 closed at 1.49 with a 0.00bp change; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.53 with a - 0.40bp change; LPR 5 - year was 3.50 with a 0.00bp change; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.24 with a - 0.80bp change; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.55 with a 0.00bp change; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.83 with a 0.50bp change; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.26 with a 6.00bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 130 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday with an operating rate of 1.40%. The bid volume was 130 billion yuan, and the winning volume was 130 billion yuan. 245 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 115 billion yuan. This week, 1765 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations, with 485 billion, 395 billion, 265 billion, 245 billion, and 375 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Since March, the liquidity market has been generally loose, and the weighted average interest rate of DR001 has remained around 1.32% [3] Stock Index and Futures Data - The CSI 300 closed at 4583, down 1.61%; the SSE 50 closed at 2916, down 1.53%; the CSI 500 closed at 7877, down 2.71%; the CSI 1000 closed at 7909, down 2.31%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2127.5 billion yuan, an increase of 66.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with the public utilities, coal, power, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors rising against the trend, while the precious metals, energy metals, rare earths, industrial metals, small metals, and non - ferrous metals sectors leading the decline [4] - Regarding futures trading volume and open interest: IF trading volume was 153370, up 8.6%; IF open interest was 282146, up 2.4%; IH trading volume was 68881, up 5.8%; IH open interest was 110567, up 26.3%; IC trading volume was 208430, up 22.5%; IC open interest was 306072, up 3.1%; IM trading volume was 282196, up 11.1%; IM open interest was 394837, up 1.3% [4][6] - Regarding futures premium and discount: IF premium/discount was 7.02% (current quarter contract), - 26.67% (near - month contract), 6.66% (next - month contract), 7.37% (next - quarter contract); IH premium/discount was - 49.63% (current quarter contract), 3.81% (near - month contract), 3.05% (next - month contract), 4.02% (next - quarter contract); IC premium/discount was - 43.14% (current quarter contract), 8.77% (near - month contract), 10.38% (next - month contract), 9.70% (next - quarter contract); IM premium/discount was 11.45% (current quarter contract), - 67.22% (near - month contract), 7.29% (next - month contract), 11.61% (next - quarter contract) [4]