1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, considering the unclear results of the US - Iran negotiations, the lack of clear OPEC production - increase data, and the shale - oil bottom - support effect, even if the negotiations are successful, it's not suitable to chase short positions due to the current risk - return ratio. It's recommended to wait and see in the short term [2]. - For methanol, with the weakening of inland prices, the stabilization of coal, and the return of previously shut - down plants, the domestic supply will return to a high level, and imports in June will increase significantly. The overall supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak, and it's recommended to consider short positions on rallies. For cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [4]. - For urea, the domestic production is at a record high and expected to remain high in the short term. Demand is lukewarm. It's recommended to wait and see for single - side trading as there's no obvious price trend and the basis is at a low level [6]. - For rubber, the sharp rebound of coking coal and coke has boosted the bullish sentiment of NR and RU. It's recommended to adopt a short - term long - trading strategy and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10][12]. - For PVC, although the inventory decline is fast in the short term, the supply - demand situation is expected to be supply - strong and demand - weak. The mid - term fundamentals are weak [13]. - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate in June as the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to supply - driven decline, and there are no new capacity - production plans in June [15]. - For polypropylene, with the concentrated capacity release in June and the approaching of the seasonal off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in June [16]. - For PX, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. It's expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [18]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [19][20]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is in the de - stocking stage, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season is coming to an end [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude - oil futures closed down $0.60, a 0.95% decline, at $62.74; Brent main crude - oil futures closed down $0.70, a 1.07% decline, at $64.91; INE main crude - oil futures closed up 5.70 yuan, a 1.23% increase, at 468.2 yuan [1]. - **Data**: US commercial crude - oil inventory decreased by 4.30 million barrels to 436.06 million barrels, a 0.98% decline; SPR increased by 0.51 million barrels to 401.82 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventory increased by 5.22 million barrels to 228.30 million barrels, a 2.34% increase; diesel inventory increased by 4.23 million barrels to 107.64 million barrels, a 4.09% increase; fuel - oil inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 23.27 million barrels, a 0.98% decline; aviation - kerosene inventory increased by 0.94 million barrels to 43.65 million barrels, a 2.20% increase [1]. Methanol - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Inland prices are weakening, coal is stabilizing, and enterprise profits have declined significantly. With the return of previously shut - down plants, domestic supply will increase, and imports in June will rise. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak [4]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Consider short positions on rallies for single - side trading. For cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [4]. Urea - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Domestic production is at a record high and expected to remain high. The compound - fertilizer summer - fertilizer season is ending, and the agricultural demand will increase gradually. Exports are expected to improve slightly after the policy implementation [6]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Wait and see for single - side trading [6]. Rubber - **Market Sentiment**: The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke has boosted the bullish sentiment of NR and RU [10]. - **Supply - Demand Views**: Bulls think that the weather, rubber - forest situation, and policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is deteriorating, demand is flat, it's the seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices may stimulate new supply [11]. - **Data**: As of May 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.78%, down 0.16 percentage points from last week and up 3.91 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 77.88%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week and down 2.40 percentage points from the same period last year. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural - rubber social inventory was 1.342 million tons, a 0.96% decline; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 818,000 tons, a 1.5% decline; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 524,000 tons, a 0.1% decline [12]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Adopt a short - term long - trading strategy and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 89 yuan to 4,834 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,680 (+10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 154 (- 79) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 37 (- 13) yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost is stable, the overall operating rate is 78.2%, up 2% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate is 46.2%, down 0.8% week - on - week. Factory inventory is 385,000 tons (- 2,000), and social inventory is 598,000 tons (- 26,000). The enterprise profit is under pressure, and the supply is expected to increase as the maintenance season ends [13]. Polyethylene - **Price Analysis**: The futures price rose. The Canadian Alberta wildfires offset the OPEC + 411,000 - barrel - per - day production - increase plan in July. The spot price remained unchanged, and the valuation's upward space is limited. The supply in the second quarter is under pressure, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season [15]. - **Market Quotes**: The main - contract closing price was 7,049 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7,125 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 76 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The upstream operating rate was 79.33%, up 1.92% week - on - week. The production - enterprise inventory was 482,000 tons, down 16,400 tons week - on - week, and the trader inventory was 58,200 tons, up 1,100 tons week - on - week. The downstream average operating rate was 39.3%, down 0.09% week - on - week [15]. Polypropylene - **Price Analysis**: The futures price rose. The Canadian Alberta wildfires offset the OPEC + 411,000 - barrel - per - day production - increase plan in July. The spot price remained unchanged, and the decline was smaller than that of PE. There are 2.2 million tons of planned capacity to be put into production in June, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season [16]. - **Market Quotes**: The main - contract closing price was 6,948 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7,115 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 167 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The upstream operating rate was 75.74%, down 0.01% week - on - week. The production - enterprise inventory was 553,300 tons, down 39,900 tons week - on - week, the trader inventory was 136,100 tons, down 16,900 tons week - on - week, and the port inventory was 64,900 tons, down 5,600 tons week - on - week. The downstream average operating rate was 50.29%, down 0.43% week - on - week [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 54 yuan to 6,578 yuan, and PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 825 dollars. The basis was 258 yuan (- 44), and the 9 - 1 spread was 180 yuan (- 4) [18]. - **Operating Rate**: China's PX operating rate was 82.1%, up 4.1% week - on - week; Asia's was 72%, up 2.6% week - on - week [18]. - **Inventory and Outlook**: The de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter due to the new PTA plant commissioning. It's expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [18]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4,670 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 4,865 yuan. The basis was 197 yuan (- 10), and the 9 - 1 spread was 138 yuan (+2) [19]. - **Operating Rate**: The PTA operating rate was 76.4%, down 0.7% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate was 91.7%, down 2.2% week - on - week [19]. - **Inventory and Outlook**: It will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 14 yuan to 4,292 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 62 yuan to 4,417 yuan. The basis was 128 (- 19), and the 9 - 1 spread was 30 yuan (- 23) [21]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side operating rate was 59.8%, up 0.1% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate was 91.7%, down 2.2% week - on - week. The port inventory was 621,000 tons, down 66,000 tons [21]. - **Outlook**: The industry is in the de - stocking stage, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season is coming to an end [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views Crude Oil - International oil prices rose, mainly driven by macro and supply - side factors boosting market risk appetite. In the short - term, the upward trend of the market is due to supply expectation adjustments and macro - geopolitical impacts on market sentiment. In the long - term, the balance sheet may continue to loosen. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The expected price ranges are [59, 69] for WTI, [61, 71] for Brent, and [440, 500] for SC. Options can consider buying straddle structures [2]. Methanol - The methanol market is facing significant inventory accumulation pressure. The 09 contract is mainly priced based on the oversupply situation in the inland area. The market will continue to force production cuts. The price will continue to decline in an oscillatory manner, with short - term resistance around 2270 and a medium - term target of 2050 - 2100 [5]. Styrene - Although OPEC+ has a strong production increase expectation, geopolitical risks and seasonal factors support oil prices in the short - term. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in June, and the cost support for styrene is weak. With the improvement of styrene industry profits, supply is expected to increase while demand is weak, so styrene prices are under pressure. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach [9]. Polyolefins - In the plastics market, the supply of PE may see inventory reduction in early June due to increased maintenance and less imports, while the supply pressure of PP will increase as maintenance ends. The demand lacks sustainability. It is recommended to short - sell PP on rallies and consider expanding the LP spread [13]. Caustic Soda and PVC - For caustic soda, the supply - side contradiction is limited in June, and some enterprises want to support prices. The demand from the alumina industry provides strong support for the spot price. It is advisable to consider expanding the spread between the near - month and 09 contracts. For PVC, the long - term supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the short - term supply pressure will increase. It is recommended to short - sell PVC on rallies, with an expected price range of 4500 - 5000 [38]. Urea - The core contradiction of urea lies in the continuous impact of high supply and weak demand. The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. After the Dragon Boat Festival, if agricultural fertilizer procurement fails to start effectively and the export volume is low, the price may decline [41]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is increasing, and demand may weaken. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6500 - 6900, and consider reverse spreads for PX9 - 1 and narrowing the PX - SC spread. - PTA: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, but short - term support is strong. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900, and consider reverse spreads for TA9 - 1. - MEG: The supply - demand structure in June is good, with inventory reduction expectations. Consider buying EG09 around 4200 and positive spreads for EG9 - 1. - Short - fiber: The driving force is weaker than the raw material end. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trading, and expand the processing fee at a low level. - Bottle - chip: The supply - demand is expected to improve in June, and consider expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [44]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 4, Brent rose 1.00 to 65.63, WTI fell 0.18 to 63.23. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 decreased significantly [2]. - **Supply Factors**: Canadian wildfires led to a supply interruption of about 350,000 barrels per day of heavy oil production [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2509 rose 17 to 2225. The MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 61 to 6 [5]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 5.64%, and port inventory increased. The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 decreased significantly [5]. Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The styrene East - China spot price fell 330 to 7430. The EB07 - EB08 spread decreased by 24 to 78 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in June, and styrene supply may increase while demand is weak [9]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 - 2509 increased by 4 to - 28, and PP2505 - 2509 increased by 19 to - 39 [13]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, and the开工 rates of some devices changed [13]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Prices and Spreads**: For caustic soda, FOB East - China port price rose to 410. For PVC, V2505 fell 58 to 4905 [33][34]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda has many maintenance plans in June, and PVC supply is expected to increase in the short - term [38]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: The 09 contract fell 12 to 1761. The 05 contract - 09 contract spread increased by 13 to - 43 [40]. - **Supply and Demand**: Daily production reached 207,000 tons, and enterprise inventory increased by 6.9%. Demand is in the off - season [41]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: PX prices fell, and the PX - crude oil spread decreased by 31 to 366. PTA prices decreased, and the PTA spot processing fee increased by 66 to 444 [44]. - **开工率**: The开工 rates of some devices in the polyester industry chain changed, such as a 2.6% increase in the Asian PX开工率 [44].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, considering the unclear results of the US - Iran negotiations, the lack of clear OPEC production - increase data, and the shale - oil bottom - support effect, it's not advisable to chase short positions even if the negotiations are successful. Short - term observation is recommended [1]. - For methanol, with weakening inland prices, stable coal, and the return of previously shut - down plants, supply pressure is high. Although downstream profits are improving, the overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. For cross - variety trading, consider going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, there's no clear price trend. It's recommended to observe the market due to the low basis [5]. - For rubber, the market is weak. A neutral approach with short - term trading is advised, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][9]. - For PVC, although inventory is declining rapidly, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation is expected to continue, leading to a weak - oscillation trend. However, beware of rebounds if the weak export expectation doesn't materialize [10]. - For polyethylene, the price may oscillate. The supply side may face pressure from new capacity in Q2, and the demand side is entering a seasonal off - peak [13][14]. - For polypropylene, it's expected to be bearish in June. The supply side has planned capacity releases, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - peak [15]. - For PX, the de - stocking may slow down in June, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in Q3. It's expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [17]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [18][19]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is in the de - stocking phase, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season ends [20]. Summaries by Industry Crude Oil - **Price**: WTI rose $0.30 (0.48%) to $63.34; Brent rose $0.49 (0.75%) to $65.61; INE rose 18.40 yuan (4.14%) to 462.5 yuan [1]. - **Inventory**: At the Fujairah port, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories decreased by 4.69%, 36.81%, 18.14%, and 14.88% respectively [1]. Methanol - **Price**: On June 3, the 09 - contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 2225 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 28 yuan/ton with a basis of +50 [3]. - **Supply - demand**: Domestic supply will increase, and imports in June will rise significantly. The port MTO plant restarted, while traditional demand weakened [3]. Urea - **Price**: On June 3, the 09 - contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 1761 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat with a basis of +79 [5]. - **Supply - demand**: Domestic production reached a record high, and short - term supply will remain high. Compound fertilizer production is ending, and agricultural demand will increase. Exports may improve slightly [5]. Rubber - **Price**: NR and RU continued to decline [7]. - **Supply - demand**: Bulls believe factors in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, while bears think macro expectations are poor, demand is flat, and new supply may increase [8]. - **Operation**: A neutral approach with short - term trading is recommended, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9]. PVC - **Price**: The PVC09 contract fell 19 yuan to 4745 yuan, and the spot price was 4670 yuan/ton with a basis of - 75 [10]. - **Supply - demand**: The overall start - up rate increased, while downstream demand decreased. Inventories decreased, but the supply - strong and demand - weak situation persists [10]. Polyethylene - **Price**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was unchanged. The basis weakened by 3 yuan/ton [12][13][14]. - **Supply - demand**: The supply side may face pressure from new capacity in Q2, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - peak [14]. Polypropylene - **Price**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was unchanged. The basis weakened by 9 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - demand**: There are planned capacity releases in June, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - peak [15]. PX - **Price**: The PX09 contract fell 94 yuan to 6524 yuan, and the CFR price fell 18 dollars to 824 dollars [17]. - **Supply - demand**: The maintenance season is ending. De - stocking may slow down in June but will resume in Q3 due to new PTA plant startups [17]. PTA - **Price**: The PTA09 contract fell 72 yuan to 4628 yuan, and the spot price fell 30 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply - demand**: The supply side is in the maintenance season, and the demand side has low inventory and is expected to continue de - stocking [18]. Ethylene Glycol - **Price**: The EG09 contract fell 43 yuan to 4306 yuan, and the spot price fell 16 yuan [20]. - **Supply - demand**: The industry is in the de - stocking phase, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season ends [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: After OPEC's production increase in July, the previous negative factors were exhausted. With the threat of wildfires in Canada and rising geopolitical risks, combined with short - term macro - stability, oil prices are strong in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to relatively weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited. The short - term Brent price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range moving up to $65 - 68 per barrel, and the medium - term range is expected to be $63 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - Asphalt: The overall supply - demand pattern is loose. Although the cost of crude oil has increased, the market's acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has a certain upward trend [3][4]. - Liquefied gas: In the international market, the CP price has increased, while the FEI has decreased. In the domestic market, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased the pressure on the market, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. The supply from Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East is expected to decline, while the demand for seasonal power generation is supportive. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [9][11]. - Natural gas: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - PX: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [14][16]. - PTA: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [17][18]. - Ethylene glycol: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [20][21]. - Short - fiber: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [22][23]. - Bottle - chip: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [24][26]. - Styrene: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [26][27]. - PVC: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, with supply increasing and demand affected by real estate and export uncertainties [29][30]. - Caustic soda: The 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish. Although there is still some support in the short - term, the upward driving force for the spot price is weakening [30][31]. - Plastic and PP: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [32][34]. - Glass: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [34][37]. - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [38][40]. - Urea: The daily output is at a high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as international price changes, compound fertilizer production, and export policies. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [41][42]. - Methanol: The international supply is still high, the domestic supply is loose, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. The price is still recommended to be shorted on rebounds [43][45]. - Log: The downstream market is still sluggish, and the long - term market faces challenges from weak real - estate demand and increased port inventory. However, the large scale difference in delivery has a certain supporting effect on the current price [45][48]. - Double - offset paper: The market was weak in May, and in June, short - term technical rebounds may occur, but long - term risks from over - capacity and weak demand need to be vigilant [48][49]. - Corrugated paper: In May, the demand showed structural improvement, but in June, attention should be paid to factors such as the implementation of price - increase policies, export order sustainability, and waste - paper price fluctuations [50]. - Natural rubber: The domestic inventory is still at a high level, and the production index of French rubber machinery has decreased. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [51][54]. - Pulp: The domestic and foreign paper - making industries have shown signs of production reduction, which is negative for the SP single - side. The short - term trading strategy is to try to go long on a small scale [54][56]. - Butadiene rubber: The short - term supply contraction has led to price increases, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the expansion of downstream ABS capacity. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [58][60]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2507 contract settled at $63.41, up $0.89 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%; Brent2508 contract settled at $65.63, up $1.00 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.55%. SC main contract 2507 rose 12.4 to 465 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it rose 4.0 to 469 yuan per barrel [1]. - Related News: The US has asked countries to submit their best trade negotiation plans by Wednesday. The US labor market is showing signs of softening, with an increase in job vacancies but also a large increase in layoffs [1]. - Logic Analysis: After OPEC's production increase, the previous negative factors were exhausted. Geopolitical risks have risen, and the macro - situation is stable in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term high - level oscillation, medium - term wide - range oscillation; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are expected to weaken; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2507 closed at 3524 points (+1.21%) in the night session, and BU2509 closed at 3495 points (+1.13%) in the night session. The spot price in Shandong on June 3 was 3470 - 3870 yuan, in the East China region was 3550 - 3620 yuan, and in the South China region was 3360 - 3450 yuan [3]. - Related News: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong rose by 25 yuan per ton. The demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has increased [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is mainly stable. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation; asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates at a high level; options are on hold [6]. Liquefied Gas - Market Review: PG2507 closed at 4075 (+0.27%) in the night session, and PG2508 closed at 4004 (+0.18%) in the night session. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong is given [6]. - Related News: The market in South China is generally stable, with some hidden discounts. The market in Shandong is stable with some small increases, and the ether - post - carbon - four market is expected to rise steadily [7]. - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the CP price has increased, and the FEI has decreased. Domestically, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased market pressure, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU07 contract closed at 2943 (-0.03%) in the night session, and LU07 closed at 3535 (+1.61%) in the night session. The Singapore paper - futures market's month - to - month spreads are given [9]. - Related News: Russia's exports of some oil products are expected to change in June, and Nigeria's Dangote refinery will import a large amount of US WTI crude oil in July [9]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [11]. - Trading Strategy: On hold for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread when the price is low [12]. Natural Gas - Market Review: HH contract closed at 3.7 (+0.76%), TTF closed at 35.848 (+2.38%), and JKM closed at 12.345 (+1.69%) [12]. - Logic Analysis: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on HH on dips; TTF is expected to oscillate strongly [14]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6524 (-1.42%) during the day and 6618 (+1.44%) in the night session. The spot price, MOPJ valuation, and PXN spread are given [14]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [15]. - Logic Analysis: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [16]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [16]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4628 (-1.53%) during the day and 4706 (+1.69%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [17]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and a PTA device has restarted [15][18]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [18]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4306 (-0.99%) during the day and 4319 (+0.30%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [18][19]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and some EG devices have restarted or are under maintenance [20]. - Logic Analysis: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [21]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; basis positive spread; sell call options [22]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2507 main contract closed at 6338 (-0.72%) during the day and 6426 (+1.39%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions is given [22]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [23]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [23]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; short PTA and long PF; options are on hold [24]. Bottle - chip - Market Review: PR2507 main contract closed at 5912 (-1.17%) during the day and 5958 (+0.78%) in the night session. The spot price of polyester bottle - chips is given [24]. - Related News: The export quotes of polyester bottle - chip factories are mostly stable [25]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [26]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation consolidation; options are on hold; sell call options [26]. Styrene - Market Review: EB2507 main contract closed at 7018 (-1.71%) during the day and 7133 (+1.64%) in the night session. The spot price and basis in different periods are given [26]. - Related News: The inventory in the East China main port of styrene has increased, and the upstream pure - benzene port inventory has also increased [26]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [27]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation weakly; options are on hold; sell call options [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: The spot price of PVC has slightly decreased, and the spot price of caustic soda in different regions has changed [29]. - Related News: The price of caustic soda in some factories has changed, and the Indian BIS hearing has no news yet [30]. - Logic Analysis: PVC's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, and caustic soda's 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish [30][31]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, go short on caustic soda at high prices and hold short positions on PVC; for arbitrage, arrange a 7 - 9 reverse spread when the spot weakens; options are on hold [32]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: The spot price of LLDPE in different regions has changed, and the spot price of PP in different regions has decreased [32]. - Related News: The maintenance ratio of PE and PP has decreased [33]. - Logic Analysis: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [34]. - Trading Strategy: Short - and medium - term weakness, hold short positions; options are on hold; arbitrage is on hold [34]. Glass - Market Review: The glass futures 09 - contract closed at 954 (-2.85%) during the day and 965 (+1.15%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [34][35]. - Related News: The China May Caixin Manufacturing PMI has contracted, and the price of the domestic float - glass market has decreased slightly. A glass production line has restarted [36]. - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [37]. - Trading Strategy: Price oscillates weakly [38]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The soda - ash futures 09 - contract closed at 1185 (-1.2%) during the day and 1213 (+2.4%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [38]. - Related News: A soda - ash device has resumed operation, and the domestic soda - ash market is adjusting weakly [39][40]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [40]. - Trading Strategy: Bearish judgment, gradual

行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 4 日 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The current oil price is in a high - valuation range, and OPEC's actual production is about to complete an increase, which will suppress the upper limit of oil prices. The oil price has entered a short - selling range on rallies [1]. - The supply pressure of methanol is still large, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. It is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies. For cross - variety, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the PP - 3MA spread of the 09 contract on dips [3]. - For urea, the current supply remains high, and the demand is tepid. The price is expected to have no obvious trend, so it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For rubber, the price has broken down. It is recommended to follow the trend, adopt a neutral or bearish mindset, conduct short - term operations, and enter and exit quickly. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [8][11]. - PVC is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, but beware of the rebound caused by the non - realization of weak export expectations [13]. - Polyethylene prices may remain volatile in June [15]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to be bearish in June [17]. - PX is expected to slow down inventory reduction in June and re - enter the inventory reduction cycle in the third quarter. It will oscillate at the current valuation level [19]. - PTA will continue to reduce inventory, and the processing fee is supported. It will oscillate at the current valuation level [20][21]. - Ethylene glycol is in the inventory reduction stage, but there is a risk of valuation correction [22]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $2.25, or 3.70%, to $63.04; Brent main crude oil futures rose $1.22, or 1.91%, to $65.12; INE main crude oil futures fell 15.20 yuan, or 3.31%, to 444.1 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 206.82 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 2.91 million barrels to 84.87 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%; diesel commercial inventory decreased by 3.93 million barrels to 95.35 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.96%; total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 6.84 million barrels to 180.22 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66% [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On May 30, the 09 contract fell 10 yuan/ton to 2208 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of +39 [3]. - **Analysis**: The weakening of inland prices and the stabilization of coal have led to a significant decline in corporate profits. With the return of previously shut - down plants, domestic supply will return to a high level, and imports in June will increase significantly. The demand side shows that the port MTO plants have restarted, while traditional demand continues to weaken. Although the decline in methanol has improved the downstream profits, the overall supply - demand pattern is still weak, and there is no upward driving force for the price [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On May 30, the 09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 1773 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +67 [3]. - **Analysis**: The domestic production has reached a record high and is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. The spot price fluctuates weakly, and corporate profits are low. On the demand side, the summer fertilizer sales of compound fertilizers are coming to an end, with high finished - product inventory pressure. Agricultural demand will gradually increase in the summer, and exports are expected to improve but with a limited range [3]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fell sharply before the holiday, and Japanese rubber continued to fall during the holiday [7]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber forest conditions, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may contribute to rubber production cuts. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is weak and in the seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices will stimulate a large amount of new supply throughout the year, and the production cut may be less than expected [8]. - **Data**: As of May 30, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.78%, 0.16 percentage points lower than last week and 3.91 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.88%, 0.03 percentage points higher than last week and 2.40 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 134.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 tons, or 0.96%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 81.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 52.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. As of May 22, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.93 (- 0.14) tons [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 20 yuan to 4764 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 84 (+10) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 39 (+11) yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: The corporate profit is under great pressure, but the maintenance season is approaching the end, and the future production is expected to increase. There is also an expectation of new plant commissioning. The downstream operating rate is still weak compared with previous years and is entering the off - season, and export orders are weakening. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and the valuation support has weakened [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 7025 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 100 yuan/ton, and it weakened by 53 yuan/ton [15]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ may announce to maintain the production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day in July. The upside space of PE valuation is limited. The new production capacity in the second quarter is large, and the supply side may be under pressure. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches is reducing, which has limited support for the price. The seasonal off - season is coming, and the demand for agricultural film orders is decreasing. The short - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - led decline to the supply - side production - commissioning - led decline. There is no new production capacity commissioning plan in June, so the price may remain volatile [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 6918 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7140 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 222 yuan/ton, and it weakened by 25 yuan/ton [17]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ may announce to maintain the production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day in July. The spot price has not changed, but the decline is smaller than that of PE. There is a planned production capacity of 2.2 million tons to be put into operation in June, which is the most concentrated month of the year. The downstream operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The seasonal off - season is coming, so the price is expected to be bearish in June [17]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 170 yuan to 6618 yuan, PX CFR fell 10 dollars to 842 dollars, the basis was 355 yuan (+81), and the 9 - 1 spread was 230 yuan (- 18) [19]. - **Analysis**: The PX maintenance season is coming to an end. It is expected to slow down inventory reduction in June, but re - enter the inventory reduction cycle in the third quarter due to the commissioning of new PTA plants. The terminal textile and clothing exports are expected to be strong during the 90 - day tariff window period, the polyester inventory is still low, and the negative feedback pressure on the raw material side is small. The short - term valuation has risen to a moderately high level and is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 114 yuan to 4700 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 4945 yuan, the basis was 219 yuan (+20), and the 9 - 1 spread was 186 yuan (- 12) [20]. - **Analysis**: The supply side is still in the maintenance season, the polyester inventory pressure on the demand side is small, and it is not expected to cut production significantly. The previous negative feedback expectation has disappeared. PTA will continue to reduce inventory, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price will oscillate at the current valuation due to the strong PXN [20][21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 10 yuan to 4349 yuan, the East China spot price rose 12 yuan to 4495 yuan, the basis was 154 (+3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 70 yuan (- 9) [22]. - **Analysis**: The industry fundamentals are still in the inventory reduction stage. Domestic and overseas plants are under maintenance, the downstream operating rate is high, and the arrival volume is low. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to decrease. The terminal exports are strong during the tariff window period, and the polyester inventory pressure is small, so there is no negative feedback pressure. However, due to the large valuation repair and the approaching end of the supply - side maintenance season, there is a risk of valuation correction [22].

文字早评 2025/06/03 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.47%，创指-0.96%，科创 50-0.94%，北证 50-0.51%，上证 50-0.45%，沪深 300-0.48%， 中证 500-0.85%，中证 1000-1.03%，中证 2000-1.75%，万得微盘-1.16%。两市合计成交 11392 亿，较上 一日-462 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、美方称中方违反中美日内瓦经贸会谈共识，中国商务部新闻发言人：中方坚决拒绝无理指责。 2、中国 5 月官方制造业 PMI 回升至 49.5，符合预期。 3、工信部：加大汽车行业"内卷式"竞争整治力度。中汽协：无序"价格战"加剧恶性竞争，挤压企 业利润空间，影响产品质量和售后服务保障。 4、特朗普宣布自周三起上调钢铝关税一倍至 50%。欧盟：表示遗憾，准备反击美国。 资金面：融资额-11.29 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+6.00bp 至 1.4710%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-1.23bp 至 3.0414%，十年期国债利率-1.90bp 至 1.6762%，信用利差+0.67bp 至 137bp；美国 10 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Daily Report [1] - Report Date: May 30, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The methanol weighted contract increased in positions and rebounded on Thursday. The weighted contract added 12,679 lots, and the 09 main contract added 9,385 lots. The weighted contract showed a trend of falling first and then rising during the day, closing with a small real - body Yang line with a long lower shadow, rising 0.54% overall [6]. - The average spot transaction price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2,235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous day. From May 23 to 29, 2025, domestic methanol production was 1,966,685 tons, an increase of 5,090 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.19%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%. The capacity utilization rates of some major downstream demand varieties of methanol this week were as follows: olefins 85.19% (month - on - month increase of 1.35%), formaldehyde 51.04% (month - on - month increase of 0.24%), acetic acid 76% (month - on - month decrease of 15%), MTBE 54.24% (month - on - month decrease of 0.76%). The comprehensive operating rate of traditional demand on the demand side declined, the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid decreased. The impact of Baofeng's maintenance on olefin demand was small, Shenghong MTO restarted, and Zhongmei Mengda planned to conduct maintenance in June. The expected increase in imports exerted pressure, but the slow inventory accumulation in ports led to a rebound in the basis. In the short term, it was still regarded as oscillating weakly [7]. - Technically, in the hourly line cycle, the MACD bottom divergence was confirmed, and the price stopped falling and rebounded, but the fast and slow lines were still running below the zero axis, remaining weak in the short term. In the daily line cycle, the previous low of 2,196 still provided support, and the price stopped falling and rebounded near the previous low. Overall, it was still regarded as oscillating weakly in the short term [7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Quotes | Contract | Opening Price | Closing Price | High Price | Low Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | Speculation Degree | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2501 | 2,285 | 2,289 | 2,293 | 2,250 | 0.44% | 61,517 | 206,572 | 6,426 | 0.30 | | MA2505 | 2,226 | 2,232 | 2,235 | 2,199 | 0.45% | 847 | 1,646 | 345 | 0.51 | | MA2509 | 2,214 | 2,218 | 2,220 | 2,173 | 0.54% | 911,793 | 849,416 | 9,385 | 1.07 | [6] 2. Industry News - Shanghai Huayi's 100,000 - ton green methanol project is accelerating. The project mainly uses biogas produced from the fermentation of wet waste and animal manure to produce 100,000 tons/year of green methanol through an advanced low - pressure synthesis process. Tianchen Engineering Company and Sinochem Third Construction are the general contractors. The project will promote advanced technologies such as modular prefabrication and prefabricated construction to shorten the construction period. Huayi's syngas supply and supporting project will build a new 800,000 - ton/year acetic acid device, a 300,000 - ton/year synthetic ammonia device, and supply 80,000 m³/h of CO + H₂ to the chemical industrial park [13] 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on futures prices and warehouse receipt quantities, MA09 - MA01 spreads, three - process methanol profits, overseas methanol market prices, the basis of the main contract, and price differences between production and sales areas, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][18][26]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities experiencing various trends such as震荡 (side - ways movement), decline, or potential for price adjustments. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have stable lower support but face high upper - breakthrough pressure. Trading volume is low, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, 10 - year Treasury bond rates may fluctuate between 1.65% - 1.7%, and 30 - year rates between 1.85% - 1.95%. The market is in a narrow - range震荡, waiting for fundamental guidance. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and observing, while paying attention to high - frequency economic data and fund - flow dynamics. For the 2509 contract, a positive arbitrage strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fails to continue its upward trend due to a lack of clear drivers and may maintain a震荡 pattern. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is recommended to sell relatively out - of - the - money call options [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Steel mill maintenance is increasing, and hot metal production is falling from its peak. For the RB2510 contract, unilateral operations are on hold, and attention is given to the strategy of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Attention is paid to the support around 670 - 680 [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of coke price cuts by major steel mills was implemented on the 28th. There is still a possibility of further price cuts, and it is recommended to short the J2509 contract at an appropriate time [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is continuously cold, coal mine production is at a high level, and inventory is high. There is still a possibility of price decline, and it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate, and the market is waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [61, 71], and SC between [440, 500]. For arbitrage, attention is paid to the INE month - spread rebound opportunities [2]. - **Urea**: Under high - supply pressure, the market is searching for a bottom in a震荡 pattern. It is recommended to use a medium - to - long - term band trading strategy and a short - term unilateral bearish strategy. The main contract's fluctuation range is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but the spot market is tight, so there is support at low levels. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 6500 - 6800. A light - position reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 can be tried, and the PX - SC spread can be shorted when it is high [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but raw - material support is strong. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 4600 - 4800, and a reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supported by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking, attention is paid to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The market price will震荡 around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: There are both bullish and bearish factors, and oils and fats are in a narrow - range震荡. Palm oil may reach 8100 in the short - term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct bearish trading on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak, and bearish trading on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: Market sentiment has weakened again. Attention is paid to the support at the 1000 - point level for the FG2509 contract [2]. - **Rubber**: With a weak fundamental outlook, the RU contract has increased positions and declined. Short positions should be held, and attention is paid to the support around 13000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are still falling under high - supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain bearish [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have stabilized and are in a震荡 pattern. If there are long positions, hold them cautiously [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak震荡 adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the energy - chemical products market is that most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend. For example, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all rated as "volatile" [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil rose. WTI July contract closed up $0.95 to $61.84 per barrel, a 1.56% increase; Brent July contract closed up $0.81 to $64.9 per barrel, a 1.26% increase; SC2507 closed at 457.4 yuan per barrel, up 3.8 yuan per barrel, a 0.84% increase. OPEC+ did not adjust production policy on Wednesday but agreed to set a benchmark for 2027 oil production. There is a possibility of accelerated production increase in July. API data showed that US crude and gasoline inventories decreased last week while distillate inventories increased [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.13% to 2986 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 fell 1.03% to 3469 yuan per ton. In April 2025, China's fuel oil production was 3.563 million tons, down 8.73% month - on - month and up 2.86% year - on - year. In May, sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain strong in the short term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.91% to 3481 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refineries was 30.39%, up 0.08% from last week; the social inventory rate was 34.59%, down 0.24% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 30.49%, up 1.49% from last week. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but production may increase. The demand in the south is expected to be lower than expected due to the rainy season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4672 yuan per ton, down 1.43%; EG2509 closed at 4311 yuan per ton, down 1.73%. A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi reduced production for maintenance. The expected arrival volume at the main port of ethylene glycol this week is low. Downstream polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, and polyester prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost [5]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 fell 690 yuan per ton to 13805 yuan per ton, NR fell 670 yuan per ton to 12245 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR fell 495 yuan per ton to 11150 yuan per ton. From January to April, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The rubber market shows a volatile trend [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol has decreased due to increased domestic plant maintenance but remains at a high level in the past five years. Overseas plant operation rates have decreased, but short - term arrivals are recovering. MTO plant operation rates have increased, and port and inland inventories are at low levels. Methanol prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China drawn wire is 7000 - 7250 yuan per ton. The upstream is under maintenance, and the overall supply pressure is not large. Downstream enterprises are increasing raw material purchases, and inventories are decreasing. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, and polyolefin prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices resume operation. Domestic real estate construction is stable, and the operating rates of pipes and profiles remain relatively stable. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on May 29, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc. [10] 3.3 Market News - API data showed that last week, US crude and gasoline inventories decreased while distillate inventories increased. As of the week of May 23, US crude inventories decreased by 4.24 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels [12]. - The Iraqi oil minister urged member states to comply with the agreement reached at the OPEC meeting, emphasizing the importance of unity for market stability [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - to - ethylene glycol and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the director, analysts for different product categories, and their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]