——从关税冲击到降息迷途，全球市场屏息以待 一份凌晨发布的会议纪要，撕开了美联储面对的两难困局：一面是关税助推的通胀火焰，一面是就业市 场的降温预警，而夹在中间的，是全球资本市场的剧烈波动。 北京时间5月29日凌晨2点，美联储公布了5月货币政策会议纪要，首次将"关税冲击"纳入核心议题，并 罕见警告未来可能面临通胀与失业"双升"的艰难权衡。这份被市场称为"风暴预警"的文件，不仅揭示了 美国经济政策的内部分歧，更暴露了全球金融体系在政治不确定性下的脆弱性。 一、会议纪要核心信号：三重压力下的"政策悬崖" 1. 通胀顽固性远超预期 长期通胀预期脱锚风险：核心PCE通胀率仍达2.6%，美联储预计2027年前难回2%目标，滞胀阴影笼 罩。 关税成为新推手：几乎所有与会官员指出，特朗普政府加征的关税正被企业转嫁给消费者，甚至非关税 影响企业也借机提价，导致通胀"向上漂移风险加剧"。 2. 就业市场韧性面临考验 尽管当前失业率稳定在4.2%，但企业因贸易不确定性已开始冻结招聘，制造业、农业等关税敏感行业 首当其冲。纪要直言"劳动力市场疲软风险正在累积"。 3. 金融稳定警报拉响 美元避险地位动摇：长期美债收益率上升与美元贬 ...

美债收益率这边，10年期国债收益率涨了3个基点，报4.4773%，两年期也小幅上涨。收益率的波动反映了市场对美联储政策的预期，会议纪要里几乎所 有委员都担心通胀比预期顽固，看来加息虽然停了，但降息可能没那么快，咱们做投资得把这层因素考虑进去，别指望流动性马上宽松起来。 黄金和原油的走势也挺有意思。现货黄金在英伟达财报后跳水，从3290美元跌到3276美元，COMEX黄金期货也跟着跌。这说明市场风险偏好稍微回升， 资金从避险资产转向了科技股。原油倒是涨了1.6%，WTI原油收高，因为OPEC+维持产量配额不变，但市场在关注那八个自愿减产的成员国会不会增 产，这会影响原油的供需平衡，能源股的中长线逻辑还得看全球经济复苏的情况。 还有两个国际新闻得说说。美伊有望达成核协议，这要是成了，可能会缓解中东的紧张局势，原油供应也可能增加，对能源价格有压制作用。俄乌筹备 第二轮会谈，市场希望能看到局势缓和的信号，毕竟冲突拖得越久，对全球经济的拖累越大。特斯拉说6月推出Robotaxi，这对电动车和AI板块是个刺 激，不过具体落地效果怎么样，还得看实际进展，咱们可以关注相关产业链的公司。 最后总结一下，美股短期受财报和政策预期 ...

Group 1: Corporate Developments - Didi Enterprise Edition has become the first travel service provider for 3M in China, offering efficient and sustainable travel management solutions [1] - Samsung Medical is expected to win a procurement project from State Grid with a total estimated value of approximately 213 million yuan [2] - Weir Shares is reportedly preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to raise no more than 1 billion USD [3] - ExxonMobil is in exclusive negotiations to sell its majority stake in its French subsidiary Esso to a Canadian energy group, with a share price of 149.19 euros [4] - Lenovo has upgraded its Tianxi personal super-intelligent system to create a comprehensive human-machine collaboration ecosystem [4] - Volvo has temporarily halted production at its South Carolina plant due to supply chain issues related to a hardware component [5] - Midea Group has established a new retail company in Foshan with a registered capital of 10 million yuan [5] - Wuliangye has stated that it has no plans to list in Hong Kong [6] - Xiaohongshu e-commerce has launched the "Friendly Market," providing over 1 billion traffic support for selected products [7] - Suning.com has started its 618 sales event, offering various discounts and subsidies [8] - Kingsoft reported a revenue of 2.338 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a 9% year-on-year increase [9] - Ant Group showcased its focus on applications and exploration of AI capabilities during its technology open day [10] Group 2: Investment and Financing - Hangzhou Daka Technology Group has completed a 20 million yuan Series A financing round, aimed at enhancing its smart IoT platform and AI applications [11] - Jiangsu Eslong Holdings has completed a 50 million yuan Series A financing round, focusing on new energy technology and green technology commercialization [12] Group 3: New Products and Market Trends - DJI is set to enter the robotic vacuum market with its first product expected to launch in June [13] - The China Passenger Car Association reported that retail sales of passenger cars from May 1-25 reached 1.358 million units, a 16% year-on-year increase [15] - Retail sales of new energy vehicles during the same period reached 726,000 units, a 31% year-on-year increase, with a penetration rate of 53.5% [15]

"凯辉一直坚持的，不是'追风口、讲故事'，而是'看落地、重生态'。我们相信，真正有价值的创 新，必须能嵌入真实场景，被产业接住，被市场验证，最终演化为推动行业变革的系统性解决方 案。"凯辉基金创始人及董事长蔡明泼表示，"AI不是孤立的技术风口，而是新产业时代的基础设 施。它将重塑行业底层逻辑，需要的也不仅是资金，更是结构性的认知、产业落地场景和跨地域的执 行力。 这正是我们与全球近 30家世界500强产业伙伴共建跨区域、跨周期创新共同体的意义所在： 让本地创新获得真正的生长力——扎根现实、穿越周期、走向世界。" 值得一提的是，凯 辉创新基金三期再度获得全球领先产业投资人及跨国集团的鼎力支持，包括赛诺 菲 (Sanofi)、道达尔能源(TotalEnergies)、法雷奥(Valeo)、法国巴黎银行保险(BNP Paribas Cardif)、法国赛博集团(Groupe SEB)、巴黎机场集团(Groupe ADP)、淡水河谷(Vale)及南美能源 与科技集团COPEC(Wind Ventures)等。 区别于传统投资，凯辉基金构建的是一个 "投资+产业协同"的全球化生态体系——将初创企业与近 30家世界500 ...

2. 巴西政府发表声明称，决定延长钢铁行业的贸易保护措施。巴西贸易机构对19种钢铁产品维持25%的 关税，并将该措施扩大到其他四种产品。 3. 法国与印尼签署战略防务合作意向书，签署农业和关键矿产领域合作意向书。 农业： 1. 墨西哥农业部：墨西哥与美国就重新开放墨西哥牛肉出口至美国的措施达成一致。 金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（5月28日） 能源： 1. 阿联酋能源部长：欧佩克+正在尽最大努力平衡市场，确保供应方面有足够的投资。如果没有欧佩克 +，尤其是八国集团，局势将会陷入混乱。 贵金属和矿业： 1. 美国佛州州长签署法案，承认金银为法定货币。 2. 加拿大2025年3月油菜籽出口量为896968吨。 2. 路透调查：沙特7月对亚洲原油售价或降至6个月低位。 3. 雪佛龙从美国获得有限使用许可，可以继续在委内瑞拉运营。 4. 澳大利亚环境部：批准伍德赛德西北部液化天然气项目延长至2070年。 5. 阿曼2025年第一季度石油收入同比下降13%，至14.68亿里亚尔。 ...

Group 1 - Recent tariff policy easing, interest rate cuts, and technological advancements are expected to lead the A-share market towards an upward trend after previous risk factors have been released [1] - Despite positive factors, uncertainties remain due to fluctuating Trump policies and weak economic recovery, which may affect market performance until 2025 [2] - The main economic characteristics anticipated for the second half of the year include strong production, recovering investment, stable consumption, and resilient exports [2] Group 2 - The CSI A500 index is designed with an "industry balance" approach, representing a selection of 500 large-cap, liquid securities across various sectors, akin to a domestic "S&P 500" [4] - The index includes approximately 50% traditional value sectors and 50% emerging growth sectors, making it more growth-oriented compared to other value indices [4] - Historical performance shows that the CSI A500 index has achieved a return of 359.17% since its inception, outperforming other major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the implementation of policies to enhance the dividend ecosystem in China's capital market, emphasizing long-term cash dividend policies and incentives for listed companies [1][2][3] - The total cash dividends for A-share listed companies are expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan for the third consecutive year, with a notable increase in the average dividend payout ratio to 37.78%, and 1,277 companies having a payout ratio over 50% [2] - A total of 3,751 listed companies have announced or implemented cash dividend plans for 2024, with 89.20% of profitable companies planning to distribute cash dividends, and 2,093 companies having maintained cash dividends for five consecutive years [2][3] Group 2 - The emergence of innovative financial products, such as high-dividend ETFs and dividend index funds, is driven by the stable cash flow from dividends, creating a virtuous cycle of attracting funds to support corporate development [2][3] - The number of dividend ETFs in the A-share market has reached 37, with total net assets of 93.782 billion yuan, reflecting a growing preference for stable dividend-paying stocks among long-term investors [3] - The policy guidance aims to balance the development characteristics of different industries while addressing structural market contradictions, focusing on the principle of "shared benefits" while allowing growth companies to innovate [3]

贵金属： 金银价格步入整理。特朗普将把欧盟面临 50%关税的最后期限延长至7月9日，令担忧情绪降 温，上周五特朗普一度威胁对欧盟关税提高到50%，一度刺激黄金走高。上周美国众议院以微弱优势通 过税改法案，未来十年将增加联邦债务约3.8万亿美元，对美国债务问题的担忧发酵。5月开始公布的经 济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈现更将明显的滞胀态势，短期经济数据的表现影 响有限。美联储难有快速动作，但随着政策框架的修改，或为未来宽松进行铺垫。考虑市场正处于期待 关税冲突降温的阶段，而美联储短期内难有快速降息，黄金白银步入持续整理阶段。但黄金长期驱动仍 然明确提供支撑，短期内有关关税谈判扰动，美国债务问题发酵或是美联储重新QE等动作，都会提供 反弹动力，整体上呈现偏强震荡态势。 铜 ： 夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来 看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新 能源渗透率提升有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈判 进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 首席点评 ...

美股周一休市，美股期货涨超1%；欧股反弹、汽车板块涨近2%；欧元创本月内新高；黄金回 落，比特币一度重上11万大关。 特朗普推迟50%关税后，欧盟称欧美贸易谈判有"新动力"，计划"快速推进"，贸易专员周一称和 美官员进行了"良好通话"。 报道称日本计划拿LNG项目+造船技术换美国关税让步，力争6月中达成协议。 加州考虑就苹果手机关税起诉美国联邦政府。 美联储明年票委：宽松暂停期可能更长，"不确定"形势是否足够明朗。 欧洲央行行长拉加德：欧元可能成为美元的替代，近期全球动荡为"欧元全球化时刻"创造契机。 报道称OPEC+本周预计决定继续大幅增产，据称意将油价压低至60美元以下。 中办、国办：推动企业健全工资合理增长机制、支持上市公司引入持股比例5%以上的机构投资者 作为积极股东。 媒体称特朗普媒体集团计划为加密货币募资30亿美元。 美团Q1营收超预期同比增长18.1%，核心、新业务均表现亮眼，闪购强劲增长；电话会：将不惜 代价赢得竞争，预计Q2本地商业营业利润率大降，暂无法提供准确业绩指引。 提醒：北京时间周二上午将公布中国4月规模以上工业企业利润数据。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Trade Representative reported that China agreed to lift export countermeasures imposed after April, including restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets, although no changes were made to rare earth export controls [1] - China holds 70% of global rare earth mining and 92% of refining capacity, making it a dominant player in the rare earth supply chain [4] - The U.S. has been slow to develop its rare earth sector due to environmental regulations and high costs, with companies like Neo Performance Materials stating that it takes at least 29 years to establish a rare earth mine in the U.S. [3] Group 2 - Rare earths are critical for high-tech and military industries, used in advanced equipment such as F-35 fighter jets and renewable energy technologies [4] - Recent reports suggest that China issued four rare earth export licenses, the first since imposing restrictions on certain rare earths, which may be a strategic move ahead of negotiations [6] - The U.S. military and energy sectors are heavily reliant on rare earths, and China's control over pricing and supply has led to significant price increases, with dysprosium prices in Europe rising over 200% [6][8] Group 3 - The U.S. has attempted to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths through various measures, but lacks the necessary separation and purification technology, making it difficult to rebuild the supply chain [6][8] - Analysts indicate that rebuilding a complete rare earth supply chain outside of China could take 10 to 15 years, during which time U.S. industrial security may be compromised [8]