■机构展望 ◎记者 汪友若 5月首个交易周，A股市场整体表现强势，日均成交额较4月底改善，情绪面显著回暖。消息面上，5月7 日，金融管理部门出台了一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期。机构观点认为，一揽子金融政策的出台节 奏超出市场预期，显著提振了市场风险偏好。 市场风格演绎方面，机构称，短期科技板块的景气度高企，A股"科技叙事"逻辑有望伴随着产业突破得 到进一步强化。中长期来看，中国证监会5月7日印发了《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，提出25 条措施督促行业从"重规模"向"重回报"转变，公募新规或推动A股市场风格向大盘权重股、红利资产等 方向演变。 一揽子金融政策提振市场信心 申万宏源证券分析称，上周金融管理部门出台一揽子政策，其政策落地的全面性、集中性、一致性显著 超出市场预期。招商证券认为，央行降准、降息、新设立结构性货币政策工具等多项政策落地，对市场 信心的提振较明显。 中金公司研究部首席国内策略分析师李求索认为，一揽子金融政策释放积极信号，有助于进一步稳增长 稳市场稳预期，在外部面临较大不确定性的环境下，助力促进投资者风险偏好回升。结合当前A股市场 估值仍处于相对低位具备较好投资吸引力，以及科技叙事和 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short term, driven by increased market attention and the effectiveness of "stabilization funds" [1] - Focus areas include the AI industry chain, self-controllable sectors, and consumption sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, particularly in service consumption [1] - High dividend sectors are expected to continue attracting investment, especially in banking, coal, public utilities, and transportation [1] Group 2 - The market has recovered from previous negative impacts, but underlying negative factors have not been completely eliminated, suggesting a period of consolidation ahead [2] - It is recommended to adjust the current portfolio by reducing exposure to high-growth technology sectors and reallocating to financial, state-owned enterprises, and dividend-paying sectors [2] Group 3 - The technology sector is likely to continue its strong performance in the short term, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) expected to outperform the market [3] - Supportive policies and industry trends are driving the technology sector, with liquidity conditions also becoming more favorable [3] - Historical trends indicate that TMT typically shows strong performance relative to the market in May, driven by policy and industry catalysts [3]

Policy Measures - The central bank introduced ten monetary policy measures categorized into quantity, price, and structure, aimed at enhancing market liquidity and reducing financing costs[11] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau proposed eight measures to support economic recovery, focusing on real estate, secondary markets, and financing for the real economy[12] Market Performance - In Q1 2025, A-share net profit for non-financial sectors grew by 5.13% year-on-year, an increase of 19% compared to the full year of 2024[15] - Among 30 industries, 17 saw a year-on-year increase in net profit growth, with TMT and non-ferrous metals sectors performing particularly well[17] Investment Recommendations - Three main investment themes are highlighted: TMT sector's sustained growth, low-cycle stocks showing signs of recovery, and stable sectors like public utilities and transportation with strong safety margins[24] - The TMT sector is expected to maintain its performance throughout the year, with Hong Kong stocks potentially offering better value[24] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected tightening of global liquidity, increased market complexity, and unpredictable policy changes[5]

Group 1 - Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS) is expected to experience a rally, potentially crossing $30 per share in their upcoming earnings report [1] - The company operates in the technology sector, with a focus on momentum as a key investment strategy [1]

登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 分析师： 蔡梦苑 | | 关税缓和信号显现,但行业关税仍存变数: | | --- | --- | | | > 美国一季度GDP萎缩，后续走势取决于关税谈判及减税政策进展 | | | ◆ 今年第一季度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算奏缩至-0.3%,主要受到抢进口和政府投资减少的抱累。后续美国经济走势 | | | 取决于关税谈判的进展(商品消费),以及减税政策的支持(私人投资)。 | | 海外宏观 | > 对等关税税率后续有望下调，行业关税仍存变数 | | | ◆ 基于财政收益最大化及后续行业关税实施空间的考量,对等关税存在下调预期。预计最终调整方向或与特朗普竞选大致医配一 | | | 即全球基准税率降至10%,中国维持约60%高位。 | | | ◆ 对华关税政策方面,特朗普表示"对中国达成协议的前景泵现得更加乐观"。然而潜在的行业关税(特别是医药、关键矿产及半 | | | 导体等敏感行业)关税仍存变致,伴随着协议谈判进程,市场波动或将延续。政策不确定性 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market demonstrated resilience in April despite increasing external uncertainties, with a total of 15 out of 21 trading days showing gains, and the Shanghai Composite Index only declining by 1.70% for the month [1] - The average daily trading volume in April was 1.24 trillion yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - The narrative of asset revaluation in China is driven by technological breakthroughs and changes in the geopolitical landscape, with AI technology acting as a catalyst [1] Group 2 - The resilience of RMB assets in April was attributed to rapid market stabilization policies that prevented negative feedback loops [3] - As of May 4, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the CSI 300 was 12.3, significantly lower than major global indices like the S&P 500, indicating a valuation advantage for A-shares [3] - Approximately 3,648 listed companies in A-shares announced cash dividend plans totaling 1.6 trillion yuan for 2025, with expected dividends exceeding 2.3 trillion yuan for 2024, marking a historical high [3] Group 3 - Compared to 2018, the current A-share market is viewed more optimistically across five dimensions: microstructure, policy environment, economic strength, liquidity, and technological innovation [4] - The profits of high-tech manufacturing industries grew by 14.3% in March, indicating a positive trend in the technology sector [4] - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to see a 3.5% year-on-year growth in A-share earnings, with significant growth in the TMT sector, particularly in electronics and semiconductors [4]

证券研究报告——宏观策略月报 静观其变，谋而后动 ——2025年5月资产配置报告 ► 请仔细阅读报告结尾处风险提示及免责声明 HWABAO SECURITIES 2025年5月8日 分析师： 蔡梦苑（执业证书编号：S0890521120001） 分析师： 郝一凡（执业证书编号：S0890524080002） 分析师： 刘 芳（执业证书编号：S0890524100002） 宏观主线梳理 宏观主线梳理 关税缓和信号显现，但行业关税仍存变数： 内容目录 海外宏观 Ø 对等关税税率后续有望下调，行业关税仍存变数 关税对经济影响逐渐显现，既定政策加快落地 Ø 美国一季度GDP萎缩，后续走势取决于关税谈判及减税政策进展 u 今年第一季度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算萎缩至-0.3%，主要受到抢进口和政府投资减少的拖累。后续美国经济走势 取决于关税谈判的进展（商品消费），以及减税政策的支持（私人投资）。 u 基于财政收益最大化及后续行业关税实施空间的考量，对等关税存在下调预期。预计最终调整方向或与特朗普竞选大致匹配—— 即全球基准税率降至10%，中国维持约60%高位。 u 对华关税政策方面，特朗普表示"对中国达成 ...

Group 1 - The TMT sector is leading the market, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF (589770) rising for three consecutive days, gaining over 1.9% on May 6 [1] - Recent releases of large models in China, such as DeepSeek's Prover-V2-671B with 671 billion parameters, are enhancing model training and deployment efficiency [1] - Major US tech companies have reported earnings that exceeded expectations, with increased capital expenditures in AI, including Meta's adjusted capital spending forecast for 2025 rising to between $64 billion and $72 billion [1][11] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF (589770) closely tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation Index, covering approximately 97% of the market capitalization of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2] - The index has shown strong performance, outperforming the Sci-Tech 50 Index in four out of five technical bull markets since its inception [2][10] - As of April 30, 2025, the Sci-Tech Innovation Index has increased by 6.73% over the past six months [4] Group 3 - The Sci-Tech Innovation Index has a high representation of sectors such as semiconductors (38.3% weight), medical devices, software development, and chemical pharmaceuticals, providing a diversified investment opportunity [6] - Since its base date of December 31, 2019, the Sci-Tech Innovation Index has outperformed the Sci-Tech 50 Total Return Index by 13.79% [8] - The index has shown strong short-term explosive potential, outperforming the Sci-Tech 50 Index in four out of five technical bull markets [10] Group 4 - Analysts from various institutions, including Industrial Securities, express optimism about the technology sector, indicating that the timing for investment is approaching as internal earnings reports are released and external tariff disturbances diminish [11] - The market is witnessing a shift in style, with technology stocks becoming a focal point for capital as pessimistic sentiments fade [11] - The current market conditions suggest that the technology sector is at a relatively low point, presenting attractive investment opportunities [12]

Monday evening was big for Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (NYSE: HIMS ), I can't lie, their turnaround impressed me. They somehow managed to beat expectations for earnings , keep a healthyI’m a retired Wall Street PM specializing in TMT; since kickstarting my career, I’ve spent over two decades in the market navigating the technology landscape, focusing on risk mitigation through the dot com bubble, credit default of ‘08, and, more recently, with the AI boom. In one word, what I’d like my service to revolve aroun ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market outlook post "May Day" is optimistic, with expectations for A-shares to likely "catch up" after the holiday [1] - The focus for investment allocation is on technology and dividend themes, which are seen as key areas of interest among analysts [1] - In the context of increasing global geopolitical tensions, dividend assets are recognized for their stabilizing role [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongtai Securities, A-share companies showed improved overall profitability in Q1, but there is significant sectoral divergence [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support in mitigating economic pressures from the US-China trade war [2] - May presents opportunities primarily in technology, consumption, and certain cyclical sectors, with a recommendation to focus on TMT sectors and potential growth areas in consumer demand [2] Group 3 - Huajin Securities highlights that technology and consumption may be the main focus for investment in May, with historical trends showing strong performance in these sectors during this period [3] - The report notes that the "May Day" holiday saw a surge in travel and consumption, benefiting sectors like social services and food and beverage [3] - There is an expectation for technology to yield excess returns in May, driven by industry trends and policy support [3] Group 4 - The report suggests that sectors with strong Q1 performance are likely to outperform in May, including computing, robotics, media, telecommunications, electronics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and electric power [4] - It also recommends low-cost dividend sectors such as large financials and electric power for investment during this period [4] Group 5 - CITIC Construction emphasizes a focus on technology growth and service consumption in the short term, with a market outlook indicating a potential shift towards growth stocks [5] - The report suggests a rotational market pattern characterized by "growth-risk-avoidance-consumption" phases [5] - Key sectors to watch include electronics, machinery, computing, automotive, home appliances, agriculture, retail, beauty care, and social services [5]