1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA is expected to move up with the cost center in the short - term as international crude oil rises significantly, new PTA plants are put into operation and increase load gradually, domestic supply is expected to rise, and there is an expectation of polyester load reduction during the terminal seasonal off - season [6]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to rebound and repair in the short - term as the cost side moves up, some maintenance devices restart, imports may be affected by geopolitical factors, and there is a strong expectation of turning from weak to strong in supply - demand [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Price Movement**: Due to the smooth progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks, the continuation of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the US, and the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation, oil prices have risen significantly. As of June 13, the Asian PX closing price was at 854 US dollars/ton CFR China, up 36 US dollars/ton from May 30. However, the absolute price increase of PX was less than that of crude oil because multiple PX plants restarted and the downstream polyester performance was not ideal [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic PX was 87.27%, a week - on - week increase of 3.83%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 75.29%, a week - on - week increase of 2.81%. It is expected that next week's PX output will increase slightly compared with this week [20]. - **Processing Fee**: As of June 13, the PX - naphtha price spread was 233.3 US dollars/ton, down 24.5 US dollars/ton from June 6. With the rapid recovery of the supply side, the PX - naphtha price spread declined. It is expected that the processing fee will continue to decline next week [23]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Price Movement**: Affected by the sharp rise of international crude oil due to the Middle East geopolitical situation at the end of the week, the absolute price of PTA followed the cost increase. As of June 13, the PTA spot price reached 5015 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 + 221 [27]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA reached 83.25%, a week - on - week increase of 4.24%. In June, it is expected that the PTA capacity utilization rate will increase significantly as some devices have maintenance expectations and some are planned to restart [31]. - **Processing Fee**: This week, the PTA processing fee continued to rise. However, with new device production and the restart of previous maintenance devices, supply is expected to increase continuously. With poor terminal performance and strong polyester production reduction atmosphere, it is expected that the PTA processing fee will decline slightly next week [34]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In June, with the co - existence of PTA device maintenance and restart and the expectation of polyester load reduction, the PTA supply - demand will shift from destocking to a tight balance [35]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Price Movement**: This week, Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol bottomed out and stabilized. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation at the end of the week, with the expectation of supply reduction and cost support, MEG slightly rose. As of June 13, the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol price was 4426 yuan/ton, and the South China market delivery price was 4530 yuan/ton [41]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The total capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol was 55.07%, a week - on - week increase of 2.71%. The output of domestic factories has increased this week as some coal - chemical factories restarted and some integrated maintenance devices resumed work [42]. - **Inventory**: As of June 12, the total MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China was 56.38 tons, an increase of 1.67 tons compared with June 9. As of June 18, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 9.88 tons [47]. - **Production Profit**: The profits of all Chinese ethylene glycol process samples declined across the board. As of June 13, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - 87.69 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11.02 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 72.85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68.88 yuan/ton compared with last week [51]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester was 88.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%. In June, it is expected that the monthly polyester output will decline significantly as supply reduction may be greater than increase due to poor demand and fewer days [53][58]. - **Product Inventory**: This week, the overall polyester production and sales were sluggish, and the industry inventory slightly increased [63]. - **Cash Flow**: Entering the traditional off - season, affected by weak terminal consumption, the polyester cash flow may continue to be compressed [66]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of June 12, the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.02%, a decrease of 0.24% compared with the previous period. The average order days of terminal weaving were 9.91 days, a decrease of 0.51 days compared with last week [71]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: Oil prices have risen significantly, but the absolute price increase of PX is less than that of crude oil [74]. - **Supply Side**: PTA production increased significantly this week, and the ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate increased [74]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester capacity utilization rate declined slightly, and the weaving starting rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased [74]. - **Inventory**: PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the MEG port inventory in East China increased [74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9]. - For each sub - sector, specific options strategies and suggestions are provided based on fundamental and market analysis of different underlying assets [9]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - Various energy and chemical option underlying futures are presented, including details such as the latest price, change, change rate, trading volume, and open interest. For example, crude oil (SC2508) has a latest price of 532, a change of 18, and a change rate of 3.50% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators (volume PCR and open - interest PCR) are analyzed for different option varieties. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and potential turning points. For instance, the open - interest PCR of crude oil is 1.61 with a change of 0.39 [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for different option underlying assets are determined from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 560 and the support level is 450 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data (including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc.) are provided for each option variety. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 41.58% [7]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions - **Crude Oil Options** - Fundamental analysis shows that US employment data is weak and geopolitical conflicts have increased the geopolitical premium of oil prices. The market has a short - term bullish upward trend. - Option factors indicate high implied volatility, strong long - term bullish power, with a pressure level of 560 and a support level of 450. - Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread for directional gains, a neutral short call + put option combination for time - value gains, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Options** - Fundamental factors such as rising crude oil prices and increased summer oil consumption have affected the LPG market. The market shows an oversold rebound. - Option factors suggest that implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the short - term bearish power is weakening, with a pressure level of 5200 and a support level of 4000. - Strategies include a neutral short call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Methanol Options** - Port inventory has increased, and the market shows a weak bearish oversold rebound. - Option factors indicate that implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the bearish power above is weakening, with a pressure level of 2500 and a support level of 1975. - Strategies include a bullish call spread, a short call + put option combination with a long - biased delta, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Options** - Port inventory is expected to increase, and the market shows a short - term bullish rise followed by a decline. - Option factors suggest high implied volatility, a range - bound and relatively strong market, with a pressure level of 4500 and a support level of 4300. - Strategies include a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Polyolefin Options (Polypropylene, etc.)** - Polypropylene downstream开工率 is low, and inventory levels vary. The market shows a rebound in a bearish trend. - Option factors indicate that implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is below 1.00, with a pressure level of 7500 and a support level of 6800. - Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Rubber Options** - Overseas production is not at a high level, and tire inventory is high. The market shows a bearish downward rebound. - Option factors suggest that implied volatility fluctuates around the average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, with a pressure level of 21000 and a support level of 13000. - Strategies include a bearish put spread, a short call + put option combination with a short - biased delta [12]. - **Polyester Options (PTA, etc.)** - PTA inventory shows a short - term slowdown in destocking. The market shows a high - level shock and decline. - Option factors indicate high implied volatility, a strengthening market, with a pressure level of 5000 and a support level of 3800. - Strategies include a neutral short call + put option combination [13]. - **Caustic Soda Options** - Production has decreased, and inventory has increased. The market shows a bearish downward trend. - Option factors suggest that implied volatility is below the average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, with a pressure level of 2520 and a support level of 2080. - Strategies include a bearish put spread, a short wide - straddle option combination, and a covered spot hedging strategy [14]. - **Soda Ash Options** - The spot market is weak, and the market shows a bearish low - level consolidation. - Option factors indicate that implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.50, with a pressure level of 1300 and a support level of 1100. - Strategies include a bearish put spread, a short call + put option combination with a short - biased delta, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Urea Options** - Inventory has increased, and prices have declined. The market shows an inverted "V" shape. - Option factors suggest that implied volatility is below the average, and the open - interest PCR is above 1.00, with a pressure level of 1900 and a support level of 1700. - Strategies include a bearish put spread, a short call + put option combination with a short - biased delta, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: After the previous profit repair, supply has increased, and downstream polyester producers plan to cut production, leading to a weakening supply - demand balance. However, short - term support is still strong due to the restart of PTA devices and new installations. PX09 is expected to fluctuate between 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA: With the restart of previous maintenance devices and new installations, and the expansion of downstream polyester producers' production cut plans, the supply - demand balance is weakening. But considering the demand for PX and rising oil prices, the price has support at low levels. TA09 is expected to fluctuate between 4600 - 4900 yuan/ton [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: In June, the supply - demand structure is good, with limited import growth. Short - term demand is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate between 4200 - 4450 yuan/ton [2]. - Short - fiber: The supply and demand are both weak. The processing fee has been repaired recently, but the repair space is limited. PF08 is expected to run between 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton [2]. - Bottle - chip: In June, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the processing fee may rebound. The absolute price follows the cost [2]. Polyolefin Industry PP is bearish in the medium - term and can be used as a short - position allocation. PE has a weaker structure, and geopolitical conflicts may lead to a short - term rebound followed by short - selling. If oil prices fall, there will be more downward space [7]. Crude Oil Industry Oil price fluctuations are expected to increase due to concerns about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical issues. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. WTI's upper resistance is in the range of [79, 80] dollars/barrel, Brent's upper pressure is in the range of [80, 81] dollars/barrel, and SC's pressure level is in the range of [580, 595] yuan/barrel [10]. Urea Industry In the short - term, under high supply pressure, downstream demand has not yet connected well. The futures price may rebound due to the linkage of the energy - chemical sector, but the amplitude is limited by the fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Methanol Industry Imports and inland logistics have jointly pushed up port inventories. In the short - term, the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is necessary to track the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics. In the long - term, if Iranian supply is interrupted, it may push up the market sentiment, but downstream losses and high implicit inventories will restrict the spot price increase [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: Recently, the supply has decreased, and the demand is under pressure. There may be inventory pressure risks in the short - term. The 7 - 9 positive spread should be exited. In the medium - term, the far - month contract is looking for a bottom [18]. - PVC: In the short - term, it shows a volatile trend. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to the weak real - estate market. In June, supply pressure is expected to increase, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [18]. Styrene Industry Crude oil price increases have driven up the downstream product prices. Pure benzene has upward potential, but high inventory may limit the upside. Styrene's supply and demand have both increased weekly, and port inventory has decreased slightly. In the short - term, there is upward space, but there is medium - term fundamental pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: From June 12 to 13, prices of most polyester products and upstream raw materials changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 0.7%, and the price of WTI crude oil (July) increased by 6.8% [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply has increased, and downstream polyester producers plan to cut production. PTA's supply - demand balance is weakening, while ethylene glycol's supply - demand structure in June is good [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various sectors in the polyester industry have changed. For example, the PTA operating rate increased from 79.7% to 82.6% [2]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot increased, and the price spreads also changed [7]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PP inventory is accumulating, and PE inventory is decreasing. The operating rates of PP and PE devices have increased [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 16, compared with June 13, prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and the price spreads also changed [10]. - **Supply and Demand Concerns**: The market is worried about supply disruptions caused by geopolitical issues, and OPEC's actual spare capacity is lower than the theoretical value [10]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices and spreads of urea contracts have changed from June 12 to 13 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea supply is high, and downstream demand has not yet connected well [13]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the price spreads also changed [15]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Port inventory has increased significantly. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed [15]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot changed, and the price spreads also changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda supply has decreased, and demand is under pressure. PVC's short - term supply - demand contradiction is not intensified, but there is long - term pressure [18]. Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: From June 12 to 13, prices of styrene upstream raw materials, spot, and futures increased, and the price spreads changed [21][22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of styrene have both increased weekly, and port inventory has decreased slightly [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [3]. Core Insights - The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching a peak of $78.5 per barrel on June 13, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly five years. The report outlines three potential scenarios for the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on oil prices, ranging from limited upward pressure to a potential surge above $100 per barrel if the situation escalates further [6][7][14]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of June 13, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $74.23 per barrel, up 11.67% from the previous week, while WTI futures rose 13.01% to $72.98 per barrel. The average prices for the week were $69.45 and $67.89 per barrel, respectively [6][21]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.644 million barrels to 432 million barrels, which is 8% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.504 million barrels, remaining 2% lower than the five-year average [21][23]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased by 4 to 555, which is a year-on-year decline of 35 rigs. The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend in crude oil, with potential downward pressure on prices, but expects drilling day rates to continue rising due to ongoing capital expenditures in the global oil and gas upstream sector [6][21]. Refining Sector - The report notes a decline in overseas refined oil crack spreads, with Singapore's comprehensive product crack spread dropping to $5.40 per barrel, down $5.38 from the previous week. The gasoline crack spread in the U.S. also fell to $20.95 per barrel, below the historical average of $24.88 per barrel [6][54][56]. - Despite the decline in crack spreads, the report suggests that refining profitability may gradually improve as overseas refineries exit the market and domestic refining rates remain low [6]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has increased, while profits from polyester filament yarn have decreased. The report highlights that the overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely. However, it anticipates an upward trend in industry prosperity in the medium to long term due to a slowdown in new capacity additions [6][51]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as companies in the upstream exploration and development sector like CNOOC and Haiyou Engineering. It also suggests monitoring polyester leaders like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials for potential investment opportunities [6][15][16].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost drives the valuation to strengthen. For PX, the cost support is strong, the valuation follows the upward trend, and it is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA. For PTA, the cost support is also strong, the valuation rises, and it is recommended to go long on PTA and short on MEG. For MEG, there is cost support, but the supply is increasing, so it is in a short - term volatile market [3][4]. - In 2025, the polyester production capacity continues to increase by 594 tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 6.8%. The PTA production capacity also has a large - scale addition plan, and the PX production capacity growth rate declines [5][9]. 3. Summary by Section PX - **Valuation and Profit** - The PX futures forward curve fluctuates sharply, and the valuation rises. The internal - external price difference rises again, and the PXN falls from a high level. The aromatics blending oil economy strengthens, and the chemical profit decreases [18][20][24]. - The Asian octane number recovers, while the US weakens. The Asian gasoline cracking profit is flat and slightly declines, and the naphtha cracking profit falls [33][35]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory** - The domestic PX load this week is 85.8% (-1.2%), and the Asian overall load is 75.6% (+0.5%). The overall supply is expected to increase steadily. The PX apparent consumption in May is 355 tons [55][57][58]. - The PX import volume in April is 72 tons, and it is expected to increase slightly in May. The South Korean aromatics PX production is expected to recover in May. The PX monthly inventory in May drops to 451 tons [61][67][70]. PTA - **Valuation and Profit** - The TA device load rises, and the credit warrant volume increases at high prices. The near - end valuation follows the rise of oil prices, and the 9 - 1 spread is in a positive spread. The PTA profit remains at a low level [78][80][85]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory** - The PTA operating rate this week rises to 82.6% (+2.9%), and the supply continues to increase. The PTA production in May is 591 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The export in April is 39 tons, and it is expected to be less than 30 tons in May [88][90][96]. - The social inventory is 220 (+4) tons, and the de - stocking slope slows down [112]. MEG - Ethylene Glycol - **Valuation and Profit** - The unilateral valuation rises, and the spread and basis rise first and then fall. The profits of each link decline month - on - month but remain at a high level, especially the coal - based profit [125][131]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory** - The domestic device operating rate rises to 66% (+6%). The supply increases marginally. The import profit declines month - on - month, which may affect the import in June. The port de - stocking is limited [137][139][144]. Polyester - **Valuation and Profit** - The polyester chain price stabilizes and rebounds, and the PX - naphtha margin weakens, but there is still a supply - demand gap, so it is expected to be in a high - level volatile market [87]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory** - The polyester operating rate is 90.8% (-0.5%), and it is expected to recover to 91.2% next week. The polyester production increases by 8% year - on - year. The oil price increase stimulates speculative demand, and the polyester inventory decreases rapidly [153][160][162].

Group 1 - Brent crude oil experienced its largest daily increase since 2022, with a surge of 11.3%, reaching $78.5 per barrel, while WTI crude peaked at $74.63 per barrel [2][3] - Iran's oil production stands at 3.3 million barrels per day, with exports between 1.5 to 1.7 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 4% of global production [7] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, are expected to impact oil exports, potentially leading to sustained high oil prices [7][8] Group 2 - Experts recommend a cautious approach to trading, advising against short positions while awaiting the outcome of negotiations [10] - The polyester market is responding to rising oil prices, with significant price increases observed in various polyester products, indicating a strong market demand despite concerns from downstream buyers [10][11] - The average transaction prices for key materials have shown notable increases, with PX rising by 36 to $854 and PTA rising by 155 to $5010 [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - PTA prices rose due to the escalation of tensions between the US and a Middle Eastern country, pushing up the Brent crude price. PTA inventory receipts increased, and spot liquidity was temporarily tight, with the spot basis strengthening. The polyester downstream load remained at 91.3% despite the expected reduction, and actual polyester production reached a new high. PTA will go through inventory reduction in the coming period, and the actions of major factories to increase the basis for sales have had a significant impact on the market, making PTA spot supplies tight. Downstream resistance to upstream price increases seems ineffective. Northeast PX plant maintenance and Zhejiang reform device startups have been postponed [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the decline in coal prices has expanded the profit margin of coal - based ethylene glycol. The recent blockage of US ethane imports has affected domestic ethylene glycol plants. Ethylene glycol continues the de - stocking trend, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have a certain impact on the market, and a large - scale plant in the Northeast has restarted. The port inventory of ethylene glycol has changed little, and the increase in the load of coal - based ethylene glycol plants exerts pressure on the market, and it will enter the de - stocking stage later [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Quotes - **PTA**: The price of INE crude oil rose from 478.1 yuan/barrel on 2025/6/11 to 495.7 yuan/barrel on 2025/6/12, an increase of 17.6 yuan/barrel. The PTA - SC spread decreased from 1,145.6 yuan/ton to 1,017.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 127.9 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3297 to 1.2825, a decrease of 0.0472. The PTA spot price increased from 4,825 yuan/ton to 4,855 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 437.6 yuan/ton to 415.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.8 yuan/ton. The PTA inventory receipts increased from 69,117 to 71,853, an increase of 2,736 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main - contract futures price decreased from 4,285 yuan/ton to 4,234 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread decreased from - 100.92 yuan/ton to - 102.11 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased from 4,377 yuan/ton to 4,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Start - up Situation - The PX start - up rate remained at 83.07%. The PTA start - up rate remained at 83.56%. The MEG start - up rate increased from 53.46% to 54.40%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points. The polyester load remained at 89.64% [2]. 3.3 Product Prices and Cash Flows - **Polyester Filament**: The price of POY150D/48F increased from 6,880 yuan/ton to 6,925 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow increased from 38 yuan/ton to 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton. The price of FDY150D/96F increased from 7,160 yuan/ton to 7,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow increased from - 182 yuan/ton to - 148 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton. The price of DTY150D/48F increased from 8,120 yuan/ton to 8,145 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow increased from 78 yuan/ton to 87 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber remained at 6,570 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow decreased from 78 yuan/ton to 62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The price of semi - bright chips increased from 5,790 yuan/ton to 5,810 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow increased from - 152 yuan/ton to - 148 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Sales Volume Ratios - The sales volume ratio of polyester filament increased from 29% to 60%, an increase of 31 percentage points. The sales volume ratio of polyester staple fiber decreased from 74% to 70%, a decrease of 4 percentage points. The sales volume ratio of polyester chips increased from 68% to 74%, an increase of 6 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6. A 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has recently been shut down for maintenance, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [2].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心小幅回落，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.11 美元至 | | | | 68.04 美元/桶，跌幅 0.16%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.41 美元/ | | | | 桶，至 69.36 美元/桶，跌幅 0.59%。SC2507 以 494.4 元/桶收盘， | | | | 上涨 3.3 元/桶，涨幅为 0.67%。地缘风险仍在持续，美国国务院 | | | | 和军方表示，由于中东地区可能发生动荡，美国政府正在将非必 | | | | 要人员从该地区撤离。根据最新的审查结果和"确保美国人在国 | | | | 内外的安全"的承诺，已下令撤出美国驻巴格达大使馆的所有非 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 必要人员。该大使馆此前已实行人员限制，所以此命令不会影响 | | | | 大量人员。此外，美国国务院也批准非必要人员及其家属离开巴 | 偏强 | | | 林和科威特。随着油价的上行，成品油市场情绪积极，山东地炼 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has signs of escalation, and oil prices have rebounded significantly. However, under the expectation of weak supply and demand, there is also significant pressure for oil prices to continue rising. If there is no further positive news, oil prices may face a correction. PX supply has increased significantly recently, and the supply - demand margin has weakened, but it still has support in the short term. PTA's supply - demand margin has also weakened, but it has support at low levels. Ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the short term. Short - fiber has a situation of weak supply and demand, and bottle - chip's supply - demand is expected to improve in June [2]. - **Methanol Industry**: The supply of methanol is generally in a loose pattern, and the demand side has a situation where MTO has mostly increased its load but downstream profits have deteriorated. The price can be operated in the range of 2200 - 2350 [21]. - **Styrene Industry**: The price of pure benzene has risen slightly, and the supply of styrene has increased. Downstream 3S profits have improved, and port inventories have decreased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the short - selling opportunities caused by the resonance of raw material ends in the medium term [26]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda Industry**: The supply of caustic soda has declined recently, and there is pressure on supply and demand in the short term. It is recommended to exit the 7 - 9 positive spread. PVC is expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a short - selling idea in the long term [71]. - **PE and PP Industry**: PE has a small increase in domestic supply and a decrease in imports, with limited supply pressure in June. PP has new capacity coming on - stream in June - July, and there is significant pressure on inventory accumulation [74]. - **Urea Industry**: The domestic urea market has a lackluster trading atmosphere, and the futures and spot prices continue to decline. It is expected to remain weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the adjustment of summer agricultural fertilizer preparation and export policies can improve the situation [82]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: Overnight crude oil prices oscillated and declined due to the fading of geopolitical risk premiums. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish approach, pay attention to the expansion opportunities of the monthly spread on the arbitrage side, and consider buying a straddle structure on the options side [86]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: On June 12, Brent crude oil (August) was at $69.36 per barrel, down 0.6% from the previous day; WTI crude oil (July) was at $68.15 per barrel, up 0.2%. CFR Japan naphtha was at $585 per ton, up 2.3% [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price was 6955 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; FDY150/96 price was 7210 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; DTY150/48 price was 8120 yuan per ton, up 0.3% [2]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX was at $818 per ton, up 0.7%; PX spot price (in RMB) was 6770 yuan per ton, down 0.5% [2]. - **PTA - related**: PTA East China spot price was 4855 yuan per ton, up 0.6%; TA futures 2509 was at 4620 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. - **MEG - related**: MEG port inventory was 63.4 million tons, up 2.1%; MEG to - port expectation was 12.8 million tons, up from 10.8 million tons [2]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate was 75.1%, up 3.1%; China PX operating rate was 87.0%, up 4.9%; PTA operating rate was 79.7%, up 4.0% [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price was 2353 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; MA2509 closing price was 2290 yuan per ton, up 0.35%; Taicang basis was 85 yuan per ton, up 6.92% [21]. - **Inventories**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 37.912%, up 2.33%; methanol port inventory was 65.2 million tons, up 12.22%; methanol social inventory was 103.1%, up 8.37% [21]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 75.14%, up 0.83%; downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 85.13%, up 0.72% [21]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil (August) was at $69.4 per barrel, down 0.6%; CFR Japan naphtha was at $585 per ton, up 2.3%; CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was at $780 per ton, unchanged [23]. - **Spot and Futures**: Styrene East China spot price was 7815 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; EB2507 was at 7353 yuan per ton, up 0.1%; EB basis was 462 yuan per ton, up 12.4% [24]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: Styrene CFR China was at $910 per ton, up 0.2%; styrene import profit was 174.6 yuan per ton, up 34.3% [25]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits**: Domestic pure benzene comprehensive operating rate was 77.2%, up 5.9%; styrene operating rate was 72.3%, up 0.4%; styrene integrated profit was 162.6 yuan per ton, down 61.2% [26]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Spot and Futures**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2718.8 yuan per ton, unchanged; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 4720 yuan per ton, unchanged [67]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port caustic soda was at $410 per ton, unchanged; PVC CFR Southeast Asia was at $670 per ton, unchanged [67][68]. - **Supply - side Operating Rates and Profits**: Caustic soda industry operating rate was 87.9%, up 0.8%; PVC total operating rate was 77.5%, up 3.8%; external - procurement calcium - carbide - based PVC profit was - 912 yuan per ton, up 13.3% [69]. - **Demand - side Operating Rates**: Alumina industry operating rate was 78.8%, up 0.7%; viscose staple fiber industry operating rate was 80.6%, unchanged [70]. - **Inventories**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 23.3 million tons, up 11.9%; PVC upstream factory inventory was 39.8 million tons, up 3.5% [71]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 closing price was 7086 yuan per ton, up 0.16%; PP2601 closing price was 6918 yuan per ton, up 0.14%; East China PP drawbench spot price was 7040 yuan per ton, unchanged [74]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate was 79.2%, up 2.27%; PP device operating rate was 78.6%, up 2.1% [74]. - **Inventories**: PE enterprise inventory was 50.9 million tons, down 1.74%; PP enterprise inventory was 58.1 million tons, down 3.93% [74]. Urea Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: 01 contract was at 1635 yuan per ton, down 0.73%; 05 contract was at 1664 yuan per ton, down 1.25%; 09 contract was at 1646 yuan per ton, down 1.26% [77]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: 01 contract - 05 contract was - 29 yuan per ton, up 23.68%; UR - MA main contract was - 655 yuan per ton, down 3.15% [78]. - **Main Positions**: Long top 20 was 176769 lots, up 6.68%; short top 20 was 197913 lots, up 8.10%; long - short ratio was 0.89, down 1.32% [79]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) were at 900 yuan per ton, down 5.26%; synthetic ammonia (Shandong) was at 2239 yuan per ton, down 0.18% [80]. - **Spot Market Prices**: Shandong (small particles) was at 1740 yuan per ton, down 0.57%; FOB China: small particles were at $360 per ton, unchanged [81]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily output was 20.68 million tons, up 1.00%; domestic urea weekly output was 141.32 million tons, down 1.82%; domestic urea factory inventory (weekly) was 117.71 million tons, up 13.69% [82]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent was at $69.36 per barrel, down 0.59%; WTI was at $68.79 per barrel, up 1.10%; Brent M1 - M3 was $1.69 per barrel, up 3.05% [86]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB was 215.90 cents per gallon, up 0.75%; NYM ULSD was 220.77 cents per gallon, up 0.87%; ICE Gasoil was $645 per ton, up 1.45% [86]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: US gasoline crack spread was $21.89 per barrel, down 0.34%; European diesel crack spread was $20.55 per barrel, down 1.32% [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each commodity, including "volatile and bullish" and "volatile" for various energy and chemical products [1][2][4][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors in the Middle East are the main reason for the rapid rise in oil prices. The short - term trend of Brent crude oil is expected to be volatile and bullish after breaking through the $70 integer mark [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Supported by the tight supply in June and the cost - side rebound, the absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to be volatile and bullish. Considering the summer demand peak, a long - spread strategy can be considered when the spread is low [2] - **Asphalt**: Although there is short - term bottom support for asphalt prices due to low supply in North China and expected supply reduction in Shandong, the upward space is limited due to increased rainfall in the South. The overall trend is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term and face downward pressure in the medium term [2] - **Polyester**: PX follows the cost trend and is in a de - stocking pattern. TA is under price pressure due to weak fundamentals, and EG shows a volatile trend with weak demand support [4] - **Rubber**: Although there is short - term support from raw material prices, the high inventory of downstream tires limits the rebound space of rubber prices [4] - **Methanol**: Despite the increase in port and inland inventories, the sharp rise in overnight crude oil prices is expected to drive methanol prices up [6] - **Polyolefins**: With the fading of tariff impacts and the arrival of the off - season, the short - term fundamentals have few contradictions. The sharp rise in overnight crude oil prices is expected to push polyolefin prices up [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Although the fundamentals are under pressure as the downstream enters the off - season, the sharp rise in overnight crude oil prices is expected to drive PVC prices to rebound [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI July contract rose $3.17 to $68.15/barrel, a 4.88% increase; Brent August contract rose $2.90 to $69.77/barrel, a 4.34% increase; SC2507 closed at 497.4 yuan/barrel, up 16.2 yuan/barrel, a 3.37% increase. Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories are the main factors driving the price increase [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, FU2507 fell 0.74% to 2939 yuan/ton, and LU2508 rose 0.17% to 3563 yuan/ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil in Asia has strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market is relatively stable [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, BU2509 fell 1.06% to 3461 yuan/ton. The total inventory of domestic refinery asphalt decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly. The supply in North China is low, and there is an expected reduction in Shandong [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 rose 0.17% to 4620 yuan/ton, EG2509 rose 0.37% to 4285 yuan/ton, and PX futures rose 0.4% to 6528 yuan/ton. TA's fundamentals are weak, and EG's inventory is increasing [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, RU2509 rose 85 yuan/ton to 13890 yuan/ton, NR rose 60 yuan/ton to 12215 yuan/ton, and BR fell 5 yuan/ton to 11225 yuan/ton. Raw material prices have risen slightly, but downstream demand is weak [4] - **Methanol**: The MTO device operating rate remains high, and port and inland inventories are increasing. The price is expected to rise due to the increase in crude oil prices [6] - **Polyolefins**: The profit margins of different production methods vary. With the arrival of the off - season, downstream demand is weak, but the price is expected to rise due to the increase in crude oil prices [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The domestic real estate construction is stable, but the downstream is entering the off - season. The price is expected to rebound due to the increase in crude oil prices [6][7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes, and basis rate quantiles of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - China and the US held the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London, reaching a consensus on some economic and trade issues [11] - The US EIA reported a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories last week, with an increase in refinery utilization rate [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents price trend charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows basis trend charts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt, including the basis between different benchmarks and the basis of main contracts [29][30][31] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides spread trend charts for different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, and ethylene glycol [43][44][45] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It shows spread trend charts between different products, including crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, and the spread between fuel oil and asphalt [59][60][61] 4.5 Production Profits - The report presents production profit trend charts for products like ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [68][70][73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experience [75][76][77] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [81]