Core Insights - The pork industry is facing a "旺季不旺" (peak season not prosperous) situation, with both futures and spot prices experiencing unexpected declines [1][2] - The main futures contract for live pigs closed at 11,125 yuan/ton on October 13, marking a 2.88% drop and a cumulative decline of 21% for the year, with prices down over 40% from last year's peak [1] - Spot pork prices have also fallen continuously since the third quarter, currently reported at 10.92 yuan/kg, below 11 yuan/kg [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The imbalance between supply and demand is leading to persistent price declines, with high levels of breeding sows and weak consumer demand [1] - The current supply situation is not expected to improve in the short term, indicating limited upward price momentum for pork [1] - Companies in the pork sector have increased their slaughter volumes in September to compensate for lower prices [1] Industry Performance Outlook - The performance of listed pork companies is likely to show a year-on-year decline in the third quarter due to insufficient capacity reduction and high prices from the previous year [1] - The continuous decline in pork prices since October is expected to cast a shadow over the fourth-quarter performance of listed pork companies [1] Capacity Reduction and Policy Impact - The pig farming industry entered a capacity reduction phase in July, but prices have accelerated downward since the third quarter, reflecting slower-than-expected capacity reduction progress [1] - According to policy guidance, reducing the number of breeding sows to around 39.5 million could positively impact pork prices [2]

Group 1 - The core issue in the pork market is the imbalance between supply and demand, leading to a significant drop in both futures and spot prices, with futures prices hitting a historical low of 11,125 yuan/ton, down 21% year-to-date and over 40% from last year's peak [2][3] - As of October 13, the national pork spot price has fallen to 10.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.26 yuan/kg from before the National Day holiday, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 39.43% [3][4] - The high inventory of breeding sows, which stood at 40.62 million heads as of the end of September, continues to exert downward pressure on prices, with no immediate signs of improvement in supply conditions [3][4] Group 2 - The pork industry is currently in a phase of capacity reduction, but the progress is slower than expected, as indicated by the 28.6% cumulative price drop since July [4][5] - Major pork companies are facing operational challenges, with sales prices and revenues declining significantly in September, prompting some to increase slaughter volumes to compensate for lower prices [5][6] - Companies like Wen's Foodstuffs and New Hope reported increases in slaughter volumes in September, with Wen's selling 3.33 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 32.46%, despite achieving the lowest sales prices of the year [5][6] Group 3 - Muyuan Foods has adjusted its breeding sow inventory to 3.305 million heads and is not considering adding new sows in the short term, while also reducing the average weight of slaughtered pigs [6][7] - Smaller companies like Zhengbang Technology have seen significant increases in slaughter volumes, with a year-on-year growth of 107.64% in September, but overall revenue for listed companies remains under pressure due to lower prices [7][10] - The outlook for pork prices remains pessimistic, with expectations of continued supply pressure and weak terminal demand, making it difficult to reverse the current supply-demand imbalance [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pork market is experiencing a "peak season not booming" situation, with both futures and spot prices falling unexpectedly, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance in the industry [2][3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of October 13, the spot price of pork has dropped to 10.92 yuan/kg, down 1.26 yuan/kg from before the National Day holiday, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 39.43% [3][4]. - The number of breeding sows remains high, with a total of 40.62 million as of the end of September, which is 104.2% of the normal holding capacity, contributing to the oversupply of pigs [3][4]. - The industry is in a phase of "capacity reduction," but the progress is slower than expected, leading to continued price declines [4][5]. Company Performance - Major listed pig companies are facing operational challenges, with sales prices and revenues declining significantly in September. For instance, Wens Foodstuff Group sold 3.33 million pigs in September, a year-on-year increase of 32.46%, but at a lower average price of 13.18 yuan/kg, reflecting a 30.81% drop [5][6]. - Muyuan Foods reported a sales revenue of 9.066 billion yuan in September, down 22.46% year-on-year, with a notable decrease in the number of pigs sold [6][7]. - Smaller companies like Zhengbang Technology have seen significant increases in output, with a year-on-year growth of 107.64% in September, but overall revenue remains under pressure due to falling prices [7][8]. Future Outlook - The outlook for pork prices remains pessimistic, with expectations of continued downward pressure due to persistent supply and weak demand [7][8]. - The industry is closely monitoring the effectiveness of capacity reduction policies, which aim to lower the number of breeding sows to around 39.5 million to potentially stabilize prices [5][6].

Core Insights - The domestic pork market is experiencing a "旺季不旺" (peak season not prosperous) situation, with both futures and spot prices unexpectedly declining [1][2] - As of October 13, the main contract for live pig futures closed at 11,125 yuan/ton, marking a 21% decline year-to-date and over 40% drop from last year's peak [1][2] - The current supply-demand imbalance, characterized by high breeding sow inventory and weak consumer demand, is expected to keep pork prices low in the short term [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The national pork (外三元) spot price was reported at 10.92 yuan/kg as of October 13, down 1.26 yuan/kg from before the National Day holiday, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 39.43% [2] - The breeding sow inventory remains high at 40.62 million heads as of the end of September, which is 104.2% of the normal holding capacity, indicating continued pressure on supply [2][3] - The industry is undergoing a "反内卷" (anti-involution) phase, with government policies aimed at reducing breeding sow numbers and controlling production capacity [2][3] Industry Performance - The pig farming industry has entered a phase of capacity reduction since July, but prices have continued to decline, with a cumulative drop of 28.6% since early July [3] - The demand side is weak, with the consumption peak during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day already passed, leading to expectations of a short-term consumption lull [3] - Listed pig companies are facing operational challenges, with many increasing slaughter rates in September to compensate for lower prices [3][4] Company-Specific Developments - Major companies like Wen's Foodstuffs (温氏股份) and New Hope (新希望) reported increased slaughter volumes in September, with Wen's selling 3.33 million pigs, a 32.46% year-on-year increase [4] - Despite lower sales prices, these companies managed to achieve revenue through volume growth, with Wen's average selling price at 13.18 yuan/kg, down 30.81% year-on-year [4] - Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) reported a 22.46% decrease in revenue in September, but is adjusting its breeding strategy to enhance future growth, including increasing its piglet sales target for 2025 [5] Market Outlook - Smaller companies like Zhengbang Technology (正邦科技) saw significant increases in slaughter volumes, but overall revenue for listed pig companies is declining due to lower average prices [6] - The ongoing decline in pork prices is expected to cast a shadow over the fourth-quarter performance of pig companies, with market forecasts remaining pessimistic due to persistent supply pressures and lack of demand recovery [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that the price of live pigs will continue to decline. Although the price has temporarily stopped falling due to the price - holding sentiment of breeders and a small amount of secondary fattening and frozen - product storage, the supply pressure from breeders still exists. It is recommended to wait and see until the price stabilizes [2][22]. 3. Summary by Section 2. Supply Situation Analysis In October, the出栏 plans of large - scale breeding enterprises generally increased, and the market supply showed an upward trend. Breeders were still actively selling, and some enterprises accelerated the selling rhythm to avoid future risks. Slaughterhouses had smooth procurement, with sufficient pig supplies, keeping the pork supply loose [2][22]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis Terminal consumption weakened significantly, with a decline in household and catering procurement demand. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughterhouses decreased simultaneously, and the sales speed of白条 slowed down, continuously constraining the pork price [2][22]. 4. Cost - Profit Analysis The report does not provide specific content on cost - profit analysis other than showing relevant profit charts. 5. Market Outlook After continuous price drops, the price - holding sentiment of breeders emerged, and a small amount of secondary fattening and frozen - product storage provided support, causing the price to temporarily stop falling. However, the selling pressure of breeders remained, and the live - pig price was expected to decline further. It is advisable to wait and see until the price stabilizes [2][22].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Muyuan Foods (牧原股份), announced on October 13 that its complete cost of pig farming for September 2025 is expected to be around 11.6 yuan/kg [1] Group 1 - The company's projected cost for pig farming in September 2025 is 11.6 yuan/kg [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current pig prices are weak both in reality and expectations, combined with policy drivers, indicating that the pig farming industry is likely to initiate capacity reduction [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The pig farming industry is experiencing a rapid shift towards losses, with average profits for large-scale farms dropping to -57 CNY per pig in August, down from 21 CNY in July, and for smallholders, the average profit fell to -109 CNY per pig from 6 CNY in July [2]. - The price of fat pigs is nearing 11 CNY per kilogram, while the price for 7 kg weaned piglets has dropped below 200 CNY per head, leading to a comprehensive loss across the industry [1][2]. - The number of breeding sows has slightly decreased, with a total of 40.38 million sows reported at the end of August, a reduction of 40,000 from the previous month, indicating a stabilization year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Price and Profit Trends - In August, the average price for market pigs fell to 14.23 CNY per kilogram, a decrease of 4.1% month-on-month and 31% year-on-year, while the average price for piglets was 33.63 CNY per kilogram, down 5.9% month-on-month and 24% year-on-year [2]. - The industry is expected to see further price declines, with fat pig and piglet prices having reached their lowest points of the year, suggesting a potential for continued market-driven capacity reduction [1]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is viewed positively, with expectations that quality companies will continue to generate profits and increase dividend rates, driving long-term performance and valuation improvements [3]. - The policy and market dynamics are expected to facilitate capacity reduction in the pig farming industry, which will support long-term performance improvements in the sector [3]. - Relevant investment targets include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), Shennong Group (605296), and Juxing Agriculture (603477) [3].

Core Insights - The report indicates a downward trend in pig prices due to increased supply and policy guidance, leading to accelerated capacity reduction in the industry [1][7][18] - The overall agricultural sector has shown a positive performance with a 1.18% increase week-on-week, while the pig farming segment is experiencing significant losses [11][36] Pig Farming Data Tracking - The number of breeding sows has slightly decreased, with a 0.33% month-on-month decline in September [19] - Pig prices have dropped significantly, with the average price on October 9 being 11.89 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 6.16% [28][29] - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses of 152.15 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and 301.04 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of October 10 [36] Poultry Farming Data Tracking - The poultry sector is facing challenges due to outbreaks of avian influenza, but there are investment opportunities in the white-feathered chicken market [37] - The average price for white-feathered meat chickens was 6.88 CNY/kg on October 10, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.15% [40] Animal Health Data Tracking - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, driven by an increase in livestock numbers and new product launches [47] - Significant growth in vaccine approvals has been noted, with various companies making advancements in vaccine development [47] Seed Industry Data Tracking - The prices of key agricultural commodities such as wheat and soybean meal have increased, indicating a positive trend in the seed industry [50] - The report emphasizes the importance of strengthening food security and promoting the commercialization of biological breeding [50] Pet Industry Data Tracking - Pet food exports have decreased by 15.5% year-on-year, amounting to 834 million CNY in August 2025 [56] - Domestic sales of pet food are growing rapidly, with a combined growth rate of 3% across major e-commerce platforms in September [57]

Core Viewpoint - The swine breeding industry is experiencing dual catalysts from both fundamental and policy aspects, enhancing the motivation for capacity reduction [1] Industry Summary - As of the end of August, the national breeding sow inventory stands at 40.38 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a reduction of 340,000 heads from the peak at the end of last year [1] - Major production areas are facing an average loss of 74 yuan per head, with the loss margin widening [1] - The occurrence of African swine fever in Vietnam and Guangxi, combined with signals from the National Development and Reform Commission regarding capacity reduction policies, has significantly increased market-driven capacity reduction motivation [1] - Current market valuations for breeding listed companies are at historical low levels, highlighting long-term investment value [1] Company Summary - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock feed, vaccines, breeding, and slaughtering to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - This index focuses on upstream enterprises in the agricultural and food supply chain, demonstrating strong industry representativeness [1]

Group 1 - Recent capital inflow into the breeding sector, with the breeding ETF (159865) seeing over 970 million yuan in net inflows in the last 10 trading days, and over 10 million shares subscribed today [1] - On September 16, the National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting signaling a clear policy for reducing pig production capacity [1] - Pacific Securities indicates that both the fattening and breeding segments of the industry have turned from profit to loss, enhancing the market-driven capacity reduction [1] Group 2 - The breeding ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index, with approximately 60% exposure to "pigs," presenting investment opportunities for interested investors [1]