Core Viewpoint - The meeting between South Korea's Trade Minister and the U.S. Trade Representative focused on extending the "reciprocal tariff" exemption period, with discussions on reducing or eliminating tariffs on key products like automobiles, steel, and aluminum [1]. Group 1 - South Korea's Trade Minister emphasized the need for significant tariff reductions or eliminations in the final agreement regarding automobiles, steel, and aluminum [1]. - Both parties acknowledged the ongoing goodwill negotiations since the establishment of the new South Korean government and the necessity to further narrow differences [1]. - Discussions were held regarding the extension of the "reciprocal tariff" exemption period, which is set to expire on July 8 [1].

Group 1: Core Views - Experts believe there is a high likelihood of reaching a principle framework agreement between the US and EU in the short term, but detailed negotiations and implementation will take more time [1][5] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU is ready to reach a principle agreement on tariffs with the US, but will take countermeasures to protect the European economy if negotiations fail [1][6] - The trade volume between the US and EU is the largest globally, amounting to €1.5 trillion annually [1] Group 2: Current Negotiation Status - EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is in Washington to meet with US officials, aiming to reach an agreement by July 9 [3] - The US currently imposes a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on automobiles, and a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods [3] - The EU estimates that US tariffs cover approximately €380 billion worth of products, accounting for 70% of its total exports to the US [3] Group 3: Challenges in Reaching an Agreement - Experts indicate that while a principle agreement may be easily reached, detailed negotiations will likely take several months due to deeper underlying conflicts [5] - The economic complementarity between the US and EU is low, making it difficult to find balanced trade solutions [5] - Different EU member states have varying trade structures and interests, complicating the negotiation process [5] Group 4: EU's Contingency Plans - The EU is preparing for the possibility of not reaching a satisfactory agreement and is considering all necessary measures to defend European interests [6][7] - The EU has previously decided to impose tariffs on €21 billion worth of US imports as a response to US tariffs, with a potential plan for an additional €95 billion in tariffs on products like Boeing aircraft and American cars [7] - The EU has tools such as the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) to respond to perceived economic coercion from the US, allowing for measures like restricting US companies' participation in EU public procurement [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The U.S. Congress House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will raise the federal government's statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the government budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [1]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.71% and COMEX silver futures up 0.85%. The Fed's policy shift expectation and trade tensions support the gold price, but strong non - farm payroll data weakens the safe - haven demand [1]. - For major varieties, methanol is short - term bullish, glass is in a inventory - digestion cycle, and gold has long - term support but is hesitant to rise at high prices [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Main News Focus International News - The U.S. Department of Commerce revoked the requirement for three major global chip design software suppliers to apply for government licenses for their business in China. Siemens fully restored Chinese customers' access to its software and technology, while Synopsys and Cadence are gradually restarting related services [5]. Domestic News - China and the EU held the 13th round of high - level strategic dialogue. Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China and the EU should strengthen exchanges and cooperation. He also responded to the issue of China's rare - earth export control, stating that it should not be a problem between China and the EU [6]. Industry News - The State Council issued a document to replicate and promote 77 pilot measures of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, including 34 measures for other free trade zones and 43 measures for the whole country [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.83%, the European STOXX 50 rose 0.28%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.98%, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.35%. ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.43%, London gold spot fell 0.92%, and London silver rose 0.77%. Other commodities also had different price changes [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The U.S. three major indexes rose. The previous trading day, the stock index rebounded. The electronic sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the decline. The market turnover was 1.33 trillion yuan. It is recommended to be bullish on stock index futures and buy options on stock index options. A - shares have high investment value in the long - term [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed performance. The central bank's open - market operations at the beginning of the month were mainly net withdrawals, and the market liquidity was relatively loose. The U.S. economic data and policy changes affected the U.S. bond yield. The domestic economic situation supported the Treasury bond futures price [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fell slightly at night. The uncertainty of tariffs and the end of the 90 - day tariff suspension on July 9th raised concerns about economic impact and fuel demand. The U.S. labor market was healthy, and the number of U.S. online drilling oil wells decreased [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.88%. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin (methanol) plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. It is short - term bullish [2][14]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures fluctuated. The new rubber supply in producing areas was affected by weather, and the raw rubber price was supported. The inventory in Qingdao area fluctuated, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins traded in a narrow range. The consumption of polyolefins entered the off - season, and the cost support weakened. It is necessary to focus on the supply contraction effect during the summer device maintenance [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures did not continue the rebound, and the inventory decreased slightly. Soda ash futures fell, and the inventory increased. Both are in the inventory - digestion cycle, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand balance [17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metal prices fell. The better - than - expected U.S. non - farm employment data reduced the Fed's early - rate - cut expectation. Gold has long - term support but is hesitant to rise at high prices. Attention should be paid to policy uncertainties [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. The low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices tested smelting output. The domestic downstream demand was stable overall, and copper prices may fluctuate in a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed higher at night. The concentrate processing fees continued to rise. The domestic demand showed mixed performance, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely [20]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.17% at night. The Fed's easing expectation boosted the non - ferrous sector. The alumina market was in a complex situation, and the aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly. Shanghai aluminum may oscillate at a high level [21]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.86% at night. The nickel ore supply in Indonesia was tight, and the price of Philippine nickel ore rose. The nickel market had both bullish and bearish factors, and nickel prices may oscillate [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium ore price showed signs of stopping falling. The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased, and the inventory also increased. The lithium market is still in a weak situation [23][24]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore was supported by the strong production momentum of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment decreased recently, and the port inventory decreased rapidly. Iron ore prices may be supported in the short - term and weaken in the later period [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel gradually emerged, and the inventory continued to decrease. The steel export was affected by tariffs and anti - dumping, and the demand for both building materials and plates may weaken in the later period. The steel market may be in a weak and oscillating state [26]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Soybean and rapeseed meal futures rose at night. The U.S. soybean growth data was mixed, and the domestic oil - mill operation rate increased, which may lead to an increase in soybean meal inventory [27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil futures were strongly oscillating at night, while soybean and rapeseed oil futures fell slightly. The Malaysian palm oil inventory, production, and export data showed different trends, and the oils and fats may continue to oscillate [28]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated, and the 08 contract rose 0.11%. The market's pessimistic expectation about the peak season of European routes was repaired, and the freight rate may be stable in the later period. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price - increase notices and macro - tariff factors [29].

Group 1 - Brother Technology expects a net profit of 60 million to 75 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 325% to 431.25% [1] - Zhonggang Luonai's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by 0.5%, amounting to no more than 562,500 shares [1] - Hesheng Silicon Industry's controlling shareholder intends to exchange up to 1% of its shares for ETF units, totaling no more than 11,822,100 shares [1][2] Group 2 - Suotong Development's actual controller plans to reduce its stake by up to 2.21%, equating to no more than 1,098,720 shares [2] - Funeng Technology's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by no more than 1%, totaling up to 12,221,000 shares [2][3] - Yuhua Development expects a net profit of 175 million to 225 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 632% to 784% [4][5] Group 3 - Dingsheng Co. plans to reduce its stake by no more than 1.71%, equating to up to 726,430 shares [5] - Renle's stock has been terminated from listing, officially delisted on July 4, 2025 [6] - Weitang Industrial's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by no more than 1.95%, totaling up to 340,000 shares [7] Group 4 - Yingfeng Environment's convertible bond may trigger a downward adjustment of the conversion price due to stock prices falling below 85% of the conversion price [8] - Jingye Da's actual controller plans to reduce its stake by no more than 3%, equating to up to 694,150 shares [10] - Yongtai Technology and its subsidiary are suing for 57.5193 million yuan in damages [11] Group 5 - *ST Meigu's subsidiary has been applied for bankruptcy liquidation [12] - Daoshi Technology plans to invest up to 165 million USD in a copper wet smelting project in the Democratic Republic of Congo [13] - Xinbo Co.'s actual controller plans to reduce its stake by no more than 1.54%, totaling up to 372,440 shares [14] Group 6 - Yunnan Energy Investment has obtained the development rights for a photovoltaic power generation project with a capacity of 20 MW [15] - Qinglong Pipe Industry's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by no more than 3%, equating to up to 990,970 shares [15] - Yangjie Technology has terminated the share issuance and cash acquisition of Beite Electronics, opting for cash acquisition instead [16] Group 7 - Taijia Co.'s controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by no more than 3%, totaling up to 755,210 shares [17] - Songyang Resources has terminated the planning of a control change and will resume trading on July 4, 2025 [19]

Core Insights - The report highlights a moderate recovery in the Chinese economy, with consumption and investment as the main driving forces [8][11][12] - The A-share market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with various sectors showing mixed performance, particularly in consumer electronics, banking, and power industries [9][10][11] - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy, focusing on growth stocks with reasonable valuations and strong mid-year performance expectations [8][11][12] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,461.15, with a slight increase of 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.17% to 10,534.58 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 14.19 and 38.11, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][10] International Market Performance - Major international indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced declines of 0.67% and 0.45%, respectively, while the Nikkei and Hang Seng indices showed slight increases [4] Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic sector saw a record high in new installations in May, with a total of 92.92 GW added, marking a year-on-year growth of 388.03% [15][16] - The report indicates a significant increase in the retail sales of new energy vehicles, which reached 1.071 million units in June, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [5][8] - The report notes that the semiconductor industry continues to grow, with global sales reaching $56.96 billion in April, a 22.7% increase year-on-year [19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as consumer electronics, batteries, and telecommunications for short-term investment opportunities [8][11] - In the photovoltaic industry, attention is drawn to leading companies in polysilicon and solar glass production, as well as advancements in new technologies like perovskite solar cells [15][16] - The report suggests monitoring the gaming and cultural consumption sectors, especially with the upcoming summer box office season [34][36]

Group 1: Core Insights - A historic metal bull market is driven by supply-demand imbalances, policy catalysts, and capital inflows, with the dollar index falling below 100 and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts rising [1] - Copper prices have surged, with London copper exceeding $9,967 and Shanghai copper surpassing ¥80,820, due to a complete supply disruption and soaring demand from infrastructure and electric vehicle sectors [1] - Aluminum profits are robust, with operating rates at 97.65% and a projected supply bottleneck, as demand from solar and electric vehicle industries continues to rise [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The copper market is experiencing a significant supply crunch, with major mining companies reducing output and Chinese smelters preparing for production cuts, while demand from the State Grid and electric vehicle charging infrastructure is booming [1] - The aluminum sector is facing a supply constraint, with limited new capacity expected by 2025, yet demand remains strong, particularly from the photovoltaic and automotive sectors [3] - The small metals sector is witnessing explosive growth driven by policy changes, with tungsten prices soaring due to reduced export quotas and strong demand from military and nuclear fusion applications [5] Group 3: Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have surged by 29% in the first half of the year, with central banks globally increasing their gold reserves, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the gold market [6] - Major gold mining companies are seeing significant inflows, with institutional holdings rising sharply, reflecting increased investor confidence in gold as a safe haven [6] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Key moving averages, such as the 5-day and 20-day, are critical for investment decisions, with specific stocks like Northern Copper and Yun Aluminum being monitored closely for potential buy signals [7] - Investors are advised to remain calm during market fluctuations, as inventory levels for copper and aluminum are lower than in 2016, and policy support is strengthening [7]

Core Viewpoint - Ming Tai Aluminum reported its aluminum plate, strip, and foil sales volume for the first half of 2025 to be 777,900 tons, with a production volume of 796,600 tons [1] Group 1: Production and Sales Data - The production volume of aluminum plates, strips, and foils for the first half of 2025 was 796,600 tons [1] - The sales volume of aluminum plates, strips, and foils for the first half of 2025 was 777,900 tons [1] - The production volume of aluminum profiles was 9,100 tons, with a sales volume of 8,200 tons, excluding self-used aluminum profiles [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term copper prices are expected to be strong. The core drivers are the ongoing "232" investigation in the US and unresolved LME warehouse receipt issues, which provide strong support for copper prices. Before the "232" investigation is concluded, the tight copper supply pattern in non - US regions is difficult to reverse. The reference price range for the main contract is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The market is in a state of slight surplus due to high - capacity operation. The reference price range for the main contract is 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely at high levels in the short term. Although macro factors and low inventory support the price, consumption in the off - season restricts its upward space. The reference price range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to show weak oscillations. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight in the short term, and the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season. The reference price range for the main contract is 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices rebounded in the short term driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts and a weak US dollar. However, the fundamentals have not fundamentally improved. In the medium - long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. The reference price range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to adjust within a range in the short term. Although macro policies boost market sentiment, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the cost support for refined nickel has weakened. The reference price range for the main contract is 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term under macro support. The fundamentals still face pressure, with high production, weak demand, and slow inventory reduction. The reference price range for the main contract is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to slow supply - side recovery. However, considering the pessimistic demand outlook, a short - selling strategy on rallies based on inventory and import data is recommended [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term. The market is in a state of contradiction between sentiment and fundamentals. The supply pressure is obvious, and the price is restricted from rising. It is necessary to observe the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton and pay attention to changes in macro expectations [17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.98% to 80,990 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.18% to 2,403 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 356.71 yuan/ton to - 1,128 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%; in May, electrolytic copper imports were 0.2531 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23%. - SHFE inventory decreased by 19.11% week - on - week, and LME inventory increased by 0.69% day - on - day [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.14% to 20,810 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton. - The 2507 - 2508 month - to - month spread increased by 50 yuan/ton to 215 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%. - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.86% week - on - week, and LME inventory increased by 2.29% day - on - day [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton. - The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 0, a month - on - month decrease of 100%; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.0261 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.38%. - The regenerated aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory increased by 6.74% week - on - week [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.04% to 22,290 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 262.82 yuan/ton to - 911 yuan/ton. - The 2507 - 2508 month - to - month spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%; in May, refined zinc imports were 0.0267 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36%. - China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 3.60% week - on - week, and LME inventory decreased by 1.28% day - on - day [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.49% to 122,050 yuan/ton; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 1 dollar/ton to - 194 dollars/ton; the futures import profit and loss improved by 142 yuan/ton to - 2,419 yuan/ton [10]. Supply and Inventory - In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%; refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. - SHFE inventory decreased by 1.51% week - on - week, and LME inventory increased by 0.11% day - on - day [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.40% to 12,700 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price difference decreased by 23.08% to 200 yuan/ton. - The 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.7912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production remained unchanged at 0.36 million tons. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.28% week - on - week, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.05% day - on - day [12]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.75% to 268,500 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 650 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 138.42% to - 48.99 dollars/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37%. - SHEF inventory decreased by 0.14% week - on - week, and social inventory increased by 2.84% [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.57% to 61,650 yuan/ton; the 2507 - 2508 month - to - month spread increased by 160 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton. - The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 1.12% to 632 dollars/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34%; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 57,630 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.74%. - In May, lithium carbonate imports were 21,146 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.37%; lithium carbonate exports were 287 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60.95%. - Lithium carbonate total inventory increased by 2.27% month - on - month in June [17].

Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Short - term copper prices are strong. The core drivers are the ongoing "232" investigation in the US and the unresolved LME warehouse receipt issue, which provide strong support for copper prices. Before the "232" investigation is finalized, the tight supply situation in non - US regions is difficult to reverse, and the main contract is expected to trade between 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract trading in the range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract trading between 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main contract trading between 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Short - term zinc prices have rebounded due to higher interest rate cut expectations and a weak US dollar. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long - term, with the main contract trading between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment provides support, but the nickel fundamentals have not changed much. The cost support for refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The price upside is limited. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract trading between 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term under macro - support, with the main contract trading between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel - mill production cut rhythms [12]. Tin - In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate. However, considering the pessimistic demand outlook, a short - on - rallies strategy based on inventory and import data is recommended [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton and changes in macro - expectations [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.98% to 80,990 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 11.18% to 2,403 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30%. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 12.44% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.14% to 20,810 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22%. The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.86% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 100% to 0 tons. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.38% to 26,100 tons. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased by 11.75% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.04% to 22,290 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 262.82 yuan/ton to - 911 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50%. The social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots in seven regions increased by 3.60% week - on - week [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.49% to 122,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 3.85% to 2,500 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, Chinese refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04%. The import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90%. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.51% week - on - week [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose 0.40% to 12,700 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread decreased by 23.08% to 200 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 1.7912 million tons, an increase of 0.36%. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 0.28% week - on - week [12]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.75% to 268,500 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 17.60% to - 13,401.25 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39%. SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 0.57% to 61,650 yuan/ton. The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 160 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34%. The demand was 918,866 tons, a decrease of 0.15%. The total inventory increased by 2.27% month - on - month [17].