01 12月1日，市场震荡拉升，沪指重返3900点上方。有色金属板块爆发，科技题材持续活跃，带动相关ETF上涨，涨幅前十的ETF中，有4 只有色、黄金相关ETF以及4只物联网相关ETF。 02 近期，债市持续震荡，债券相关ETF成交活跃。12月1日，成交额前十的ETF中，除1只短融ETF和2只货币ETF外，其余均为债券相关 ETF。科创债ETF成交持续活跃，4只科创债ETF成交额超90亿元。 03 核心资产迎来增量资金。11月28日，资金净流入居前的ETF中，出现上证50ETF（510050）、中证500ETF（510500）等产品。 有色、物联网相关ETF涨幅居前 12月1日，有色金属板块爆发。涨幅前十的ETF中4只为有色、黄金相关ETF，其中，黄金股票ETF基金涨超4%，在所有ETF中涨幅最 高。工业有色ETF涨近4%。 科技题材表现活跃，通信设备、物联网等相关ETF涨幅居前。涨幅居前的ETF中，有4只为物联网相关ETF。 对于今日大涨的有色金属板块，业内人士分析称，有色金属行业大涨的主要原因是，美联储降息预期升温导致流动性宽松预期增强，叠 加供给紧张和需求增长支撑价格上涨。 跌幅方面，12月1日，多只跨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the issuance of local government bonds, including the issuance scale, types, and progress of different periods, as well as the issuance progress of special bonds [1][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From December 1st to December 7th, local bonds are expected to be issued at 1087.2 billion yuan, including 504.4 billion yuan of new bonds (113.9 billion yuan of new general bonds and 390.5 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 582.8 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (413.1 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 169.7 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds). From November 24th to November 30th, local bonds were issued at 3513.6 billion yuan, including 2340.2 billion yuan of new bonds (87.5 billion yuan of new general bonds and 2252.7 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 1173.4 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (687.7 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 485.6 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5]. - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: The report presents the planned and actual issuance of local bonds in different months and regions through multiple figures, showing the differences between planned and actual issuance in different periods and regions [21][22]. 2. Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of November 30th, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 91.02%, and that of new special bonds is 101.81% [27]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The report shows the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of November 30th through a figure [27]. 3. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 30th, the fifth - batch second - round special refinancing bonds total 20000.00 billion yuan, the sixth - round special refinancing bonds total 2712.79 billion yuan, and an additional 513.43 billion yuan will be issued next week. The top three regions in the fifth - batch second - round disclosure scale are Jiangsu (2511.00 billion yuan), Hunan (1288.00 billion yuan), and Henan (1227.00 billion yuan) [5]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 30th, the special new special bonds in 2025 total 13508.41 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 25387.05 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in the disclosure scale are Jiangsu (2440.35 billion yuan), Hubei (1377.69 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (1311.70 billion yuan). The top three regions in the 2025 disclosure scale are Jiangsu (1289.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1192.68 billion yuan), and Yunnan (729.97 billion yuan) [6]. 4. Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The report shows the primary and secondary spreads of local bonds through figures, including the spreads of different maturities and their changes [38]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: The report presents the regional secondary spreads of local bonds through a figure [39]. 5. New Special Bond Investment Direction - **Project Investment Monthly Statistics**: The report shows the investment direction of new special bonds through a figure, and the latest month's statistics only consider the issued new bonds [40].

Market Overview - The bond market showed weak performance last week, with the 1-year government bond yield remaining at 1.40%, the 10-year yield rising by 2.46 basis points to 1.84%, and the 30-year yield increasing by 2.75 basis points to 2.19%. This trend was influenced by the recovery in equity market sentiment and events related to Vanke's bond extension, leading to a short-end fluctuation and a weakening long-end [3][14] - The current bond market configuration offers a phase of improved cost-effectiveness, with limited room for further significant yield increases. The recommendation is to adopt a trading strategy focused on wave operations while extending the duration of interest rate bonds and positioning in liquid credit bonds, awaiting a recovery in market sentiment [3][14] Public Fund Market Dynamics - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced a draft for public consultation regarding the pilot program for commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs), indicating an upcoming expansion in the REITs market [17] Fund Index Performance Tracking - The Money Enhanced Index rose by 0.02% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.35% since inception [19] - The Short-term Bond Fund Index remained flat, with a cumulative return of 4.50% since inception [4][19] - The Medium to Long-term Bond Fund Index decreased by 0.10%, with a cumulative return of 6.75% since inception [5][19] - The Low Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index rose by 0.02%, with a cumulative return of 4.25% since inception [6][19] - The Medium Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index increased by 0.44%, with a cumulative return of 5.61% since inception [7][19] - The High Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index rose by 0.38%, with a cumulative return of 7.29% since inception [8][19] - The Convertible Bond Fund Index increased by 0.24%, with a cumulative return of 21.33% since inception [9][19] - The QDII Bond Fund Index rose by 0.12%, with a cumulative return of 10.33% since inception [10][19] - The REITs Fund Index increased by 0.74%, with a cumulative return of 33.22% since inception [11][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market weakened overall, with long - term bond yields rising significantly. Affected by rumors of new regulations on public fund sales and the stock market's shock recovery, market sentiment weakened further, and bond fund redemption pressure increased. However, on Friday, the bond market recovered due to the weakening expectation of November PMI and the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy. The yield curve steepened upward as short - term bond yields rose less than long - term ones because of the loose funding situation. [2] - This week (the week of December 1st), the bond market will continue to fluctuate. The November manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and the weak fundamental pattern remains unchanged, which is generally favorable to the bond market. December is a traditional allocation month, and institutional investors such as insurance companies may make advance arrangements, providing some support to the bond market. However, due to the uncertainty of the new regulations on public fund sales, stock market disturbances, and weak expectations of interest rate cuts, market sentiment is generally cautious, and the bond market's reaction to fundamental positives will be limited. In the short term, it is difficult for the bond market to break through the volatile market. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market weakened overall last week, with long - term bond yields rising significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.30% cumulatively last week. On Friday, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 2.46bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose slightly by 0.09bp, with the term spread continuing to widen. [3] - From November 24th to 28th, the bond market showed different trends each day. It was generally under pressure from Monday to Thursday due to various factors such as stock market performance and rumors of new regulations. On Friday, it recovered due to the weakening expectation of November PMI and the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy. [3] 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 140 interest - rate bonds were issued, an increase of 64 compared with the previous week. The issuance volume was 716 billion yuan, an increase of 229.5 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 477.5 billion yuan, an increase of 134.3 billion yuan. The issuance volume of Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local government bonds increased compared with the previous week. The net financing amount of local government bonds increased, while that of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds decreased. [9] - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was generally acceptable. The average subscription multiple of 4 issued Treasury bonds was 2.52 times, that of 20 issued policy - financial bonds was 3.80 times, and that of 116 issued local government bonds was 18.59 times. [13] 2. Last Week's Important Events - In November, China's manufacturing PMI index was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from October, in line with market expectations mainly due to the recent efforts of growth - stabilizing policies and positive results from China - US economic and trade talks. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from October. Looking forward, the manufacturing PMI index may decline in December due to factors such as the impact of US high tariffs on global trade and China's exports and the continued adjustment of the domestic real - estate market. [13] 3. Real - Economy Observation - Most high - frequency data on the production side declined last week, including blast furnace operating rates, petroleum asphalt plant operating rates, daily pig iron production, and semi - steel tire operating rates. [14] - On the demand side, the BDI index continued to rise, while the CCFI index declined slightly. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to increase slightly. [14] - In terms of prices, pork prices first rose and then fell, showing an overall downward trend, while most commodity prices rose, including copper, crude oil, and rebar prices. [14] 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net injection of funds through open - market operations last week was 435.8 billion yuan. [25] - R007 and DR007 both rose, the inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock commercial banks rose, the national and joint - stock direct - discount rates for various terms rose, the volume of pledged repurchase transactions decreased significantly, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank market first decreased and then increased, showing an overall downward trend. [26][27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market showed mixed performance with the Zhongzheng Convertible Bond Index rising by 0.1% to 482.09, and a total trading volume of 53.624 billion yuan [1] Convertible Bonds Performance - A total of 395 convertible bonds were traded today, with 215 rising, 0 unchanged, and 180 declining [1] - 21 convertible bonds saw gains exceeding 2%, with notable performers including: - Furong Convertible Bond (113672) up 7.71% - Fuxin Convertible Bond (111012) up 7.14% - Guanzhong Convertible Bond (123207) up 6.54% [2] - Conversely, 12 convertible bonds experienced declines over 2%, with: - Huicheng Convertible Bond (123118) down 9.78% - Yingbo Convertible Bond (123249) down 6.45% - Dazhong Convertible Bond (127070) down 4.73% [2] Corresponding Stocks Performance - Among the stocks corresponding to the traded convertible bonds, 241 rose, 12 remained unchanged, and 142 fell [1] - 12 stocks had gains exceeding 5%, including: - Asia Pacific Technology (002540) up 10.06% - Hebang Bio (603077) up 10.05% - Furong Technology (603327) up 10.01% [1] - 2 stocks saw declines over 5%, with: - Huitong Group (603176) down 9.94% - Corresponding Huicheng Convertible Bond (113665) down 3.46% [1]

新华财经北京12月1日电 政策精准发力与市场内生动力共振，让我国绿色债券在全球ESG退潮中逆势崛 起，成为全球可持续金融的新引擎。根据英国伦敦证券交易所集团最新数据，截至2025年10月下旬，我 国绿色债券发行总额同比增长92%至1018亿美元，在全球绿色债券发行总额中占比达20%，成为全球最 大的绿色债券市场。 这一成绩的取得正值全球绿色债券发行总体降温之际——全球绿色债券发行总额同比下降11%至5060亿 美元。我国绿债市场的逆势上扬，彰显出宏观政策的独特发展韧性与战略远见。从《绿色金融支持项目 目录》的统一标准，到中欧《共同分类目录》的接轨国际。从清洁能源债券的兴起，到转型金融框架的 搭建，一条从"规模扩张"到"质效提升"的路径清晰可见。 与此同时，相关部门积极推动国内标准与国际接轨，进一步提升了市场规范性和国际认可度。近年来， 国家发展改革委、工业和信息化部、财政部、生态环境部等部门出台了一系列政策。 例如，《关于进一步强化金融支持绿色低碳发展的指导意见》明确提出，持续优化我国绿色债券标准， 统一绿色债券募集资金用途、信息披露和监管要求。国家金融监督管理总局和中国人民银行发布的《银 行业保险业绿色金融 ...

Group 1 - Japanese government bonds have experienced a significant decline due to renewed interest rate hike expectations, with the 3-month bond yield soaring over 34% and the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.840%, the highest level since June 2008 [1] - The Nikkei 225 index opened high but fell sharply, with an intraday drop exceeding 2%, losing over 1,000 points [1] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the central bank will weigh the pros and cons of raising interest rates at the next monetary policy meeting, marking the strongest signal yet regarding a potential rate hike [2] Group 2 - The Japanese government plans to issue over 11.7 trillion yen (approximately 529.9 billion RMB) in new bonds to fund a new round of economic stimulus, raising concerns about the impact on fiscal health [4] - Japan's debt is projected to reach 229.6% of GDP by 2025, the highest among developed countries, leading to market worries about fiscal deterioration due to increased spending [4] - The Japanese economy has shown signs of deterioration, with the latest data indicating a 1.8% annualized decline in GDP for Q3, raising concerns about the effectiveness of the government's stimulus measures [6]

植田和男表示，日本央行对经济活动和物价的基本判断未发生改变。他特别提到，2025财年最低工资同比涨幅超过5%，极有可能带动更广泛的企业加薪 行为，并强调"尤其重要的是，要确认迈向明年春季年度薪资谈判的初步动向是否具备足够动能"。 在通胀方面，植田和男指出，核心消费者通胀率预计将在2026财年上半年暂时回落至2%以下，此后将重新加速。他同时强调，在日本央行三年展望期的 后半段，通胀水平将大致与2%的目标相符。 植田和男提醒，需关注近期物价走势可能通过影响通胀预期，进而作用于潜在通胀的风险。 继半月前股债汇"三杀"后，日本市场今日再次迎来股债"双杀"。 关于货币政策，植田和男明确表示："为顺利实现物价稳定目标，有必要适时调整宽松力度，既不能过晚，也不能过早。"他解释称，即使政策利率上调， 宽松的金融环境仍将维持；加息并非"踩刹车"，而是"适度放松油门"，以支持经济与物价的稳定增长。 12月1日，日经225指数高开低走，盘中一度跌超千点，跌幅超2%。截至发稿，日经225指数报49280.48点，跌1.94%。 日本10年期国债收益率上涨7个基点至1.87%，30年期国债收益率短暂触及3.395%，创历史新高。 消息 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market's interest rate curve widened to 43.95BP last week due to the stable funding situation and volatile market sentiment. Short - term interest rates remained resilient, while long - term and ultra - long - term interest rates fluctuated significantly. The market may experience a repair trend around key events in December. Although short - term fluctuations are inevitable, the expectation of "loose money" is strong, which is expected to create a window for interest rate decline. It is recommended to adopt a left - hand layout strategy, prioritize 3 - 5 - year treasury bonds and policy financial bonds in early December, and gradually extend the duration as the policy signal becomes clear, with the overall duration of the portfolio controlled within 5 - 7 years [3][90][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - In November 2025, the net MLF injection was 100 billion yuan, and the outstanding scale reached 7.15 trillion yuan, approaching the historical peak [6]. - On the evening of November 26, Vanke announced that it would hold a creditor's meeting to discuss the extension of "22 Vanke MTN004", and the meeting will be held on December 10 [9]. - On November 28, the China Securities Regulatory Commission drafted the "Announcement on Launching the Pilot Program of Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust Funds (Draft for Comment)" and solicited public opinions. The announcement includes product definition, registration and operation management requirements, responsibilities of fund managers and professional institutions, and regulatory responsibilities [10]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Funding Rate Trends - The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a total injection of 1.5118 trillion yuan and maturity of 1.676 trillion yuan, resulting in a net injection of - 164.2 billion yuan. The funding situation was generally loose at the beginning and middle of the week, but the funding stratification intensified on Friday. As of November 28, the R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 rates changed by 3.75BP, 2.70BP, - 1.76BP, and 2.60BP respectively compared to November 21 [11][13][15]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, the CD issuance scale last week was 559.55 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 242.49 billion yuan. The issuance scale of urban commercial banks was the largest, with a net financing of - 827 million yuan. The issuance rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, urban commercial banks, and rural commercial banks for 3 - month and 1 - year CDs changed to varying degrees compared to the previous week. In the secondary market, the yields of CDs with a term of less than 3 months declined, while those with a term of more than 3 months increased [20][23][31]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - The supply of interest - rate bonds increased last week, mainly due to the growth of local government bond supply. The actual issuance of interest - rate bonds was 716.069 billion yuan, with a net financing of 490.648 billion yuan. From January to November, the financing of local government bonds and treasury bonds was approaching the end. The cumulative net financing of various treasury bonds and local government bonds in 2025 was about 6.23 trillion yuan and 7.12 trillion yuan respectively, showing an obvious increase compared to the average from 2021 to 2024. As of last week, the issuance of special refinancing bonds had reached 2.24 trillion yuan, mainly in long - term and ultra - long - term maturities [34][38][40]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - The funding situation was relatively stable at the end of the month. Short - term interest rates were stable, while medium - and long - term interest rates fluctuated significantly during the week and slightly recovered on Friday. The spreads between the active and sub - active bonds of 10 - year treasury bonds and national development bonds were relatively stable. The term spread of 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bonds widened to 43.95BP, and the variety spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds over treasury bonds also widened [46][53][59]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The scale of leveraged trading was generally stable last week and declined on Friday due to approaching the end of the month. In terms of the cash bond market trading volume, state - owned banks significantly increased their net purchases of treasury bonds with a term of less than 5 years and also increased their purchases of 5 - 10 - year treasury bonds. Rural commercial banks sold treasury bonds with a term of less than 5 years throughout the week but increased their purchases of other term and variety interest - rate bonds, especially 5 - 10 - year policy financial bonds. Insurance companies' willingness to hold treasury bonds with a term of more than 10 years increased significantly. Securities firms and funds were the main sellers, with funds mainly selling treasury bonds with a term of more than 10 years and 5 - 10 - year policy financial bonds. The leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market in October was about 118.77% [65][74][77]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased by 0.73% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained flat, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 1.58%, the cement price index decreased by 0.69%, and the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 4.38%. The CCFI index decreased by 0.09%, and the BDI index increased by 12.53%. The wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.45%, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 1.40%. The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 100.00% and increased by 1.02% respectively. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.08 [88]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The market may experience a repair trend around the Central Economic Work Conference and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting in December. The "loose money" expectation is strong, which is expected to create a window for interest rate decline. It is recommended to adopt a left - hand layout strategy, prioritize 3 - 5 - year treasury bonds and policy financial bonds in early December, and gradually extend the duration as the policy signal becomes clear, with the overall duration of the portfolio controlled within 5 - 7 years [90][91][92].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **debt market** outlook for 2026, highlighting various strategies and market dynamics affecting bond yields and credit performance. Core Insights and Arguments - **Yield Predictions**: The mainstream view anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield will fluctuate between **1.7% and 2.0%** in 2026, with a cautious approach towards the **97 strategy** and a focus on institutional behavior [1][4] - **Market Dynamics**: The debt market is expected to experience a slight upward fluctuation, influenced by weak economic sentiment and insufficient social demand, with potential risks from equity market rallies and tightening monetary policy [1][6] - **Credit vs. Interest Rates**: Credit performance is currently superior to interest rates, with short-term credit bonds showing strong performance. The focus has shifted back to **yield strategies** rather than merely avoiding risks [3][12] - **Key Strategies**: The main strategies for 2026 include **low volatility**, **high yield strategies**, and a cautious approach to the **97 strategy**. Emphasis is placed on understanding institutional behaviors and market dynamics [5][8] Important but Overlooked Content - **Impact of Anti-Competition Policies**: The anti-competition policies have significantly reduced the leading indicators' effectiveness, particularly the PPI, which historically had a strong influence on the debt market [7] - **Financial Debt as Core Investment**: Financial bonds remain a core investment for non-bank institutions due to their safety, yield, and liquidity advantages, despite short-term impacts from redemption fee regulations [8][29] - **Sector-Specific Insights**: The real estate sector is under pressure due to demographic changes, with a declining number of new births affecting future housing demand. This demographic shift is expected to continue impacting the economy and real estate sector negatively [22][31] - **Credit Strategy Adjustments**: The strategy for credit bonds involves adjusting allocations based on yield levels, favoring high elasticity subjects during high yield periods and low elasticity subjects during low yield periods [28] Conclusion - The debt market outlook for 2026 is characterized by cautious optimism, with a focus on credit performance and strategic adjustments in response to evolving market conditions. The interplay between policy, economic indicators, and institutional behavior will be crucial in shaping investment strategies moving forward.