1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of China's economic situation through various high - frequency indicators, showing a mixed picture of economic trends with some sectors declining and others recovering [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) remained flat at 5.0%. The WEI production sub - index was 4.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, and the WEI demand sub - index was 5.7%, unchanged from the previous value. The supply - demand gap was 1.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production was - 1.2%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.7%, down 0.4 percentage points. The automobile semi - steel tire operating rate was 78.2%, down 0.1 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average daily coal consumption of major coastal power plants was 1.4%, up 0.5 percentage points [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipping rate was 40.5%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous value. The cement mill operating rate was 41.8%, down 0.2 percentage points. The petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 30.8%, down 3.6 percentage points [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.8%, up 5.1 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land acquisition area of 100 large - and medium - sized cities was - 5.5%, down 4.9 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.5 Consumption - The year - on - year of the average daily retail sales of passenger cars was 14.0%, down 16.0 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was - 47.2%, down 3.8 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen was 1.8%, down 1.2 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Export - South Korea's export year - on - year in mid - May was 20.3%, up 44.1 percentage points from the previous period. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was - 40.4%, down 2.4 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) remained unchanged [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was - 3.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was 1.4%, down 0.5 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 9.0%, down 1.2 percentage points [3]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index was - 10.7%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Brent crude oil spot price was - 22.6%, up 1.1 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the rebar price was - 13.3%, down 0.6 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Qinhuangdao Port steam coal closing price was - 26.2%, down 2.7 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was 12.0%, down 2.5 percentage points [3].

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Yuliang has been re-elected as the chairman of Greenland Holdings, reflecting both recognition of his historical contributions and the company's urgent need for stability during its "second entrepreneurship" phase [1][5]. Company Background - Zhang Yuliang founded Greenland Holdings in 1992 with an initial capital of 20 million yuan, leading the company to become a key player in Shanghai's urban redevelopment [3]. - The company went public in 2015 through a reverse merger, achieving a market value exceeding 300 billion yuan and diversifying into various sectors including real estate, infrastructure, and consumer goods [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Greenland Holdings reported a revenue of 240.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 33.2%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 5.552 billion yuan, down 62.75% [6]. - The real estate segment generated 106.2 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 42.44%, while the infrastructure segment reported 107.15 billion yuan, down 26.45% [7][9]. Business Challenges - The company faced significant challenges due to high leverage, with total liabilities exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan and a net debt ratio of 139% by 2020 [5]. - In 2022, Greenland became the first mixed-ownership real estate company to announce a debt extension, indicating a liquidity crisis [5]. Strategic Initiatives - Greenland is pursuing a "second entrepreneurship" strategy, focusing on expanding into finance, energy, and consumer sectors to drive growth [5][10]. - The company has initiated a large-scale organizational restructuring to adapt to its new strategic direction, merging various regional divisions to optimize resource allocation [13][14]. New Business Ventures - In 2024, Greenland signed contracts for 5.7 million square meters in new construction projects, indicating progress in its light-asset transformation [10]. - The company has also launched a new energy vehicle export business, aiming for a significant export volume within three years [10][11]. Recent Developments - In Q1 2025, Greenland reported a revenue of 35.598 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.97%, with a net loss of 247 million yuan [15][16]. - The company is implementing cost-cutting measures, including salary reductions for mid-level management, to address declining performance [16].

Core Viewpoint - The latest data indicates a year-on-year profit growth of 3.0% for industrial enterprises above designated size in April, showing a continuous improvement in profit growth for the year [1][4]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Growth - In the first four months of the year, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 1.4%, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [4]. - In April alone, profits increased by 3.0%, which is a 0.4 percentage point acceleration from March [4]. - Out of 41 major industrial categories, 23 experienced year-on-year profit growth, indicating a growth rate of nearly 60% [4]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw significant profit growth, with equipment manufacturing profits rising by 11.2% and high-tech manufacturing profits increasing by 9.0% in the first four months [4]. - The growth rates for these sectors exceeded the overall average profit growth rate of 7.6% for all industrial enterprises [4]. - The equipment manufacturing sector contributed 3.6 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [4]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - Several industries related to "Artificial Intelligence+" and smart products experienced profit growth of over 100%, including semiconductor device manufacturing (105.1%), smart vehicle equipment manufacturing (177.4%), and smart unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing (167.9%) [5]. - The "Two New" policy effects are evident, with specialized and general equipment industries achieving double-digit profit growth, contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth [5]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - Despite uncertainties in the international environment and pressures from insufficient demand and price declines, the resilience of the Chinese economy is strong, supported by policy initiatives and industrial upgrades [6]. - The trend towards high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing is expected to continue, with high-tech and high-value-added industries projected to maintain rapid growth [6]. Group 5: Economic Recovery Indicators - Multiple market institutions have reported a month-on-month recovery in economic sentiment for May [3][7]. - The retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles in May are expected to reach approximately 1.85 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.5% and a month-on-month increase of 5.4% [8]. - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with a decrease in the rate of decline in sales, indicating a potential stabilization in the sector [9].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial profits of large-scale enterprises in China showed a year-on-year growth of 3.0% in April, indicating a continuous improvement in profit growth for the year [1][4]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Growth - In the first four months of the year, the profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises was 1.4%, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [4]. - In April alone, the profit growth was 3.0%, which is an increase of 0.4 percentage points from March [4]. - Among 41 major industrial sectors, 23 sectors experienced year-on-year profit growth, indicating a growth rate of nearly 60% [4]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw significant profit growth, with equipment manufacturing profits increasing by 11.2% and high-tech manufacturing profits rising by 9.0% in the first four months [4]. - The profit growth in high-tech manufacturing was 7.6 percentage points higher than the average for all large-scale industrial enterprises [4]. - Specific industries related to "artificial intelligence+" and smart products saw profits more than double, such as semiconductor device manufacturing (105.1% growth), smart vehicle equipment manufacturing (177.4% growth), and smart unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing (167.9% growth) [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite uncertainties in the international trade environment and pressures from global economic downturns, China's economic resilience is strong, supported by policy initiatives and industrial upgrades [7]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to continue its transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, with high-tech and high-value-added industries projected to maintain rapid growth [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pay attention to price fluctuations in the agricultural and black upstream sectors, and technological development in the agricultural midstream [1]. - Keep an eye on the promotion of elderly - care service - related products [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: Sichuan has drafted measures to promote the high - quality development of animal husbandry, including supporting leading livestock enterprises and promoting the transformation and upgrading of pig slaughtering [1]. - **Service Industry**: As of April, there were 216,000 types of age - friendly products in the market, with 28,700 new varieties, especially in assistive walking products and daily - life aids [1]. 3.2 Industry Overview - **Upstream**: The prices of natural rubber, eggs, and glass have declined [1][2]. - **Midstream**: The PTA and asphalt开工率 have increased, while the PX开工率 has decreased [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of first - tier city commercial housing have declined seasonally, and the number of international and domestic flights has decreased cyclically [3]. - **Market Pricing**: The credit spread of the pharmaceutical and biological industry has slightly declined [4]. 3.3 Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of multiple industries, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and chemical industry, have changed. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry decreased from 62.07 last week to 58.65 this week [50]. 3.4 Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Various industries' price indicators have different trends. For example, the spot price of corn decreased by 0.25% year - on - year, and the spot price of natural rubber decreased by 4.07% year - on - year [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the aluminum oxide price has reached a two-month high, indicating potential upward trends in metal prices [1][2]. - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing significant declines, with new construction area down by 23.80% year-on-year from January to April 2025 [1][24]. - The report notes a strong correlation between liquidity indicators and stock market performance, particularly the M1 and M2 growth rate differential [11][20]. Liquidity Analysis - The M1 and M2 growth rate differential was -6.5 percentage points in April 2025, a decrease of 1.10 percentage points month-on-month [11][20]. - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for May 2025 is at 49.09, up 2.20% from the previous month [11][20]. - The London gold spot price increased by 4.86% week-on-week [11]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The cumulative year-on-year new construction area for national real estate from January to April 2025 is down 23.80% [1][24]. - The national real estate sales area for the same period is down 2.80% year-on-year, with a slight improvement of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [24]. - The report indicates that the national cement price index has decreased by 2.07% week-on-week, reflecting pressures in the construction materials market [62]. Industrial Chain Insights - The report notes that the operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, indicating robust demand in the industrial sector [2][72]. - The price of tungsten concentrate has reached its highest level since 2011, while aluminum oxide prices have also hit a two-month high [2][2]. - The report provides insights into various commodity price movements, including a 0.84% increase in aluminum prices and a 0.88% decrease in copper prices [2][9]. Valuation Metrics - The report states that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.53, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]. - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels, driven by regulatory changes and market dynamics [4]. Export Chain Analysis - The new export orders PMI for China in April 2025 is at 44.70%, down 4.3 percentage points month-on-month, indicating weakening export demand [3][3]. - The report highlights that the CCFI composite index for container shipping rates has increased by 0.23% week-on-week, reflecting some resilience in logistics [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a period of tariff easing, leading to a rebound in exports while domestic demand shows increasing divergence [1] Group 2 - High-frequency data indicates a mixed performance in consumption, with strong automobile sales [1] - Investment in infrastructure is accelerating, while real estate sales show marginal improvement amidst a sluggish land market [1] - Exports are rebounding rapidly, supported by resilient overseas demand, with port data and export freight rates rising quickly due to concentrated shipments from previously accumulated inventories [1] Group 3 - Production is exhibiting a trend of industry divergence, with a rebound in the photovoltaic production index, while the operating rates in sectors like steel and petrochemicals are declining [1] - Coal inventories are decreasing from high levels, and there is an accelerated reduction in steel inventories [1] Group 4 - Price performance is generally subdued, with most high-frequency indicators related to CPI and PPI showing a downward trend [1] - In terms of liquidity, the US dollar index has significantly declined, while the Chinese yuan continues to appreciate [1]

Macro - Export has rebounded while domestic demand shows divergence, with strong automobile sales and accelerated infrastructure investment, but real estate sales are marginally improving amidst a sluggish land market [1] - High-frequency data indicates a rapid rebound in imports and exports, supported by resilient overseas demand and a recovery in port data and export freight rates due to concentrated shipments from previously accumulated inventories [1] - Production is exhibiting industry-specific trends, with a rebound in the photovoltaic production index, while the operating rates in sectors like steel and petrochemicals are declining [1] - Coal inventories are decreasing from high levels, and steel inventories are being reduced at an accelerated pace [1] - Price performance is generally moderate, with most high-frequency indicators for CPI and PPI trending downwards [1] - The liquidity environment is characterized by a significant drop in the US dollar index and a continuous appreciation of the Chinese yuan [1] Overseas Strategy - The article reviews the asset price movements during four periods of trade friction easing between the US and China from 2018 to 2019, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations [3][4] - Each easing period had varying durations and was often interrupted by unilateral actions from the US, indicating the unpredictable nature of trade negotiations [3] - The first easing period in May 2018 lasted only 10 days, with US stock performance showing volatility, while Chinese A-shares faced downward pressure due to dual challenges from tariffs and financial deleveraging [4] - The December 2018 easing lasted over four months, during which A-shares and Hong Kong stocks briefly rebounded before declining again, while US stocks benefited from rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [4] - The June 2019 easing lasted about one month, with A-shares initially rising but later experiencing declines due to renewed trade tensions [4] - The October 2019 easing saw a significant initial rise in both US and Chinese stock markets, but subsequent performance diverged [4] Industry - The article discusses the significance of tritium as a fuel for nuclear fusion, highlighting recent policy shifts in the US and Germany towards advanced nuclear technologies [8] - Tritium is described as a scarce resource necessary for nuclear fusion, contrasting with uranium, which is mined [8] - The fusion reaction involves deuterium and tritium, releasing energy and neutrons, with deuterium being abundant and sourced from seawater, while tritium must be artificially produced [8] - The process of generating tritium involves neutron multiplication using beryllium spheres and subsequent reactions with lithium, emphasizing the importance of tritium factories for recovery and purification [8]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" marks a new phase of legal and institutional support for the development of the private economy in China, enhancing the role of private enterprises in driving innovation and economic transformation [1] Group 1: Policy Support and Framework - The law encourages private enterprises to participate in major national technology strategies, planning, and policy-making, providing a stronger institutional framework for their involvement in national scientific research projects [1] - The government aims to create a more favorable environment for private enterprises to engage in significant projects, with ongoing improvements in market access and the reduction of hidden barriers in government procurement and bidding processes [2][3] Group 2: Participation in Major Projects - Private enterprises have shown an increased bidding success rate, with a 5 percentage point year-on-year increase in the first four months of the year, and over 80% of projects under 10 million yuan being won by private firms [2] - The government is launching approximately 3 trillion yuan worth of quality projects in key sectors such as transportation, energy, and urban infrastructure, promoting fair access for various business entities [3] Group 3: Financial Support and Challenges - Despite improvements, private enterprises still face challenges in financing, with high costs and limited access to funding channels [3] - The government has introduced policies to enhance credit support for private enterprises, including a guarantee plan for loans to technology-driven and specialized small and medium-sized enterprises [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The establishment of a collaborative policy system combining legal protection, policy optimization, and targeted support is expected to facilitate the long-term participation of private enterprises in national projects [4] - Private enterprises are encouraged to seize opportunities for transformation and upgrade their capabilities to enhance their resilience and contribute to China's modernization efforts [4]

Consumption - Auto consumption shows significant improvement with a notable increase in wholesale and retail sales, leading to a strong performance in this sector[9] - Service consumption experiences fluctuations due to holidays but shows a marginal improvement overall[49] Investment - Infrastructure bond issuance accelerates, with a total of CNY 1.37 trillion issued as of May 11, 2025, including CNY 177.6 billion in the first ten days of May[16] - Real estate market remains under pressure, with new home transaction area in 30 cities dropping from a year-on-year growth of 10.6% to 1.2%[16] Trade - Vietnam's exports grow by 21.0% year-on-year in April, driven by re-export and transshipment activities[21] - Domestic port operations slow down, with a decline in the number of ships docking and departing from major ports[21] Production - Overall production indicators show a marginal decline, particularly in power generation, steel, petrochemicals, and automotive sectors[28] - Coal consumption for power generation experiences a seasonal decline, indicating a potential short-term reduction in industrial electricity usage[28] Inventory and Prices - Industrial inventories, except for cement, are generally on the rise, with coal inventories nearing historical highs[38] - Consumer prices (CPI) show a marginal increase, while industrial prices (PPI) decline, reflecting a mixed pricing environment[43]