1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given reports. 2. Report's Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices showed little fluctuation, with rebar slightly stronger and hot-rolled coil weaker, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar converged. The spread between May and October contracts of rebar strengthened, while that of hot-rolled coil remained stable. Steel mill's hot metal production decreased due to environmental protection factors, inventory continued to decline seasonally, and apparent demand rebounded. Attention should be paid to the height of the rebound in apparent demand. The government work report at the Two Sessions basically met expectations, with little fluctuation in domestic demand expectations. The conflict between the US and Iran affected steel export routes, leading to a weak short - term export expectation. The support levels of rebar and hot-rolled coil are around 3020 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, and the cumulative shipment volume since the beginning of the year increased by nearly 30 million tons. The arrival volume decreased. The hot metal production decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis, and the inventory pressure at ports was prominent. The supply pressure will still suppress ore prices, and the concerns about finished product exports may cause disturbances. Short - term ore prices may fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 730 - 770 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a volatile trend. The mainstream steel mills initiated the first - round price cut on March 4, which is expected to take effect on March 6, and port prices were weakly stable. Coking profit recovered to near the break - even point after the price increase. During the Two Sessions, steel mill production limits led to a decrease in hot metal production, weakening the restocking demand. The overall inventory increased slightly, and the coke supply and demand were basically balanced in the short term. Coking coal futures also showed a volatile trend. The spot auction price in Shanxi was weakly running, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuated with the futures. After the Spring Festival, coal mines gradually resumed production, and the daily coal output increased. Steel mills limited production during the Two Sessions, and the mainstream steel mills cut the coke price. The overall inventory decreased seasonally, but the upstream inventory increase was bearish. It is recommended to view the market with a volatile perspective and operate cautiously, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800 for coke and 1050 - 1200 for coking coal [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The ferrosilicon futures contract fluctuated at a high level. After the Spring Festival, ferrosilicon supply increased slightly, and the absolute value was at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The demand for ferrosilicon increased marginally after the festival. The ferromanganese futures contract continued to rise. The supply of ferromanganese increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, and the absolute value was also at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The hot metal production decreased significantly due to production limits during the Two Sessions, and the finished product inventory was low. The terminal demand for exports was weakened by the US - Iran conflict. The overall demand will continue to improve marginally after the festival. It is expected that the price fluctuations of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese will intensify. For ferrosilicon, the price may face pressure when rebounding to the FOB export cost. For ferromanganese, short - term long positions or 5 - 9 positive spreads can be tried, and attention should be paid to the immediate cost pressure level in Guizhou [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions had different changes. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged, while hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the plate billet price remained unchanged. Profits in different regions and for different products showed different changes, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 44 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal production decreased by 5.7 to 227.6, a decrease of 2.4%. The production of five major steel products increased by 0.5 to 797.2, an increase of 0.1%. Rebar production increased by 8.2 to 173.3, an increase of 5.0%, with the electric furnace production increasing significantly by 9.1 to 11.7, an increase of 349.6%. Hot - rolled coil production decreased by 8.5 to 301.1, a decrease of 2.7% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 105.9 to 1952.0, an increase of 5.7%. Rebar inventory increased by 75.1 to 875.7, an increase of 9.4%. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 19.5 to 471.7, an increase of 4.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.2 to 5.3, an increase of 3.8%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 126.7 to 691.4, an increase of 22.4%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 64.7 to 98.2, an increase of 192.8%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 13.2 to 281.6, an increase of 4.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore varieties increased, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines increasing by 5.5 to 856.6, an increase of 0.6%. The 05 - contract basis of some varieties changed, for example, the 05 - contract basis of Carajás fines decreased by 1.5 to 97.6, a decrease of 1.6% [4]. Production and Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 5.5 to 2146.9, a decrease of 0.3%. The global shipment volume increased by 19.8 to 3340.7, an increase of 0.6%. The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 to 11964.7, an increase of 8.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3, an increase of 1.2%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 162.41 to 6072.2, a decrease of 2.6% [4]. Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel mills decreased by 1618.8 to 9085.1, a decrease of 15.1%. The 45 - port inventory increased by 145.6 to 17091.96, an increase of 0.9% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of different coke varieties had different changes. For example, the price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi remained unchanged, and the price of coke 05 contract increased by 5 to 1677, an increase of 0.3% [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of different coking coal varieties also had different changes. For example, the price of medium - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi remained unchanged, and the price of coking coal 05 contract increased by 9 to 1106, an increase of 0.8% [7]. Supply - The weekly coke production was 883. The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4 to 63.9, a decrease of 0.5%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.0, a decrease of 0.2%. The weekly production of Fenwei sample coal mines' raw coal decreased by 144.1 to 696.4, a decrease of 17.1%, and the clean coal production decreased by 74.4 to 349.6, a decrease of 17.5% [7]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill hot metal production decreased by 5.7 to 227.6, a decrease of 2.4%. The demand for coke was affected by the decrease in hot metal production [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 4.6 to 984.7, an increase of 0.5%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.5 to 110.3, an increase of 2.3%, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.9 to 671.3, a decrease of 0.6%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines' clean coal decreased by 3.1 to 121.0, a decrease of 2.5%, and the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 48.9 to 949.5, a decrease of 4.9% [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot and Futures - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 10 to 5828.0, and the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 28 to 6092.0 [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 9.4 to 6063.2, and the production profit decreased by 9.3 to - 213.2. The production cost of ferromanganese in Guangxi increased by 26.6 to 6312.4 [8]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.2 to 9.7, a decrease of 2.1%. The weekly ferromanganese production decreased by 0.1 to 19.6, a decrease of 0.8% [8]. Demand - The weekly ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged at 1.8, with an increase of 1.7%. The weekly ferromanganese demand increased by 0.1 to 11.1, an increase of 0.9%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average hot metal production decreased by 5.7 to 227.6, a decrease of 2.4% [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.4 to 6.6, a decrease of 5.9%. The inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises decreased by 1.1 to 38.7, a decrease of 2.8% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the US-Iran conflict, oil prices are rising, the Fed's rate - cut expectations are weakening, and US bond yields are climbing rapidly. It is advisable to pay attention to domestic two - sessions policy signals and the change of the war situation and control risks [4]. - The economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the domestic bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend, affected by stock market trends and inflation expectations [7]. - Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards precious metals, as short - term fluctuations are expected due to the adjustment of margin by CME and the geopolitical situation [10]. - The prices of most non - ferrous metals are supported by factors such as resource attributes and supply - demand relationships, but also face risks from geopolitical situations and market sentiment [13][15][18]. - The black - building materials sector is currently in a weak state, and the short - term core contradiction lies in inventory digestion and demand verification [32]. - The energy - chemical sector is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and different products have different investment strategies according to their supply - demand and cost situations [56][58][61]. - For agricultural products, different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, and corresponding investment strategies are put forward [81][83][87]. 3. Summaries According to Different Categories 3.1 Macro - finance 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: Some flights from China to the Middle East have resumed, Israel will reopen its airspace on the 8th, US tech giants have signed a self - power supply commitment, the central bank will conduct 800 billion yuan of repurchase operations, and US economic data shows mixed results [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pay attention to domestic two - sessions policy signals and the change of the war situation and control risks [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The yields of treasury bond futures have minor changes, the government has set economic growth targets, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery momentum is uncertain, and the bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend, affected by stock market trends and inflation expectations [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver have declined, which may be related to the rise of US bond yields and the large - scale selling plan of the Polish central bank. CME has adjusted the margin of gold and silver futures, and global gold ETFs have seen continuous capital inflows [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, as short - term fluctuations are expected due to the adjustment of margin by CME and the geopolitical situation [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the Middle East war, copper prices have declined, LME inventory has increased, and domestic social inventory has also changed [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the risk preference is affected by the geopolitical situation, the key mineral resource attribute supports copper prices. The short - term price has support, and the reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 100,000 - 102,500 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum has fallen after rising, the inventory has changed, and the trading situation in the spot market is different [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a high level, the price is still supported by factors such as the uncertainty of the Middle East war and the supply risk [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of zinc has a slight increase, and the inventory and basis have changed [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak, and the price may fluctuate widely during the conflict [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The price of lead has declined, and the inventory and basis have changed [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the lead ingot inventory has increased, the price is expected to stop falling and gradually recover [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has declined, and the price of nickel ore and nickel iron has remained stable [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, the price of nickel is expected to rise slowly, while in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate to digest inventory pressure [20]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has declined, the supply is tight, and the demand has not been effectively reflected [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market has a strong sentiment of going long on tin, but it should not blindly chase the high. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased, the production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - ore positive factors have been fully digested, and the price may fall back. Be cautious about going long [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has increased, the basis and inventory have changed [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start have reduced the inventory accumulation. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to wait and see [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has declined, the inventory has decreased, and the raw material price has remained stable [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is increasing, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. The price is expected to rise in a volatile manner [27]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy has fluctuated slightly, the inventory has decreased, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve after the festival. The short - term price support is strong [29]. 3.3 Black - building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have minor changes, and the inventory and position have also changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The macro - policy supports the demand for steel, but the current inventory is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [33][34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply is expected to recover, and the demand is affected by short - term production restrictions. The price is expected to fluctuate [34]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have increased slightly, and the spot prices are at a premium [36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate, and there is a risk of a phased decline. In the long term, there is a possibility of an upward trend [38][39]. 3.3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has increased, and the inventory has increased. The price of soda ash has increased, and the inventory has also increased [40][42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the soda ash market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock [41][43]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The price of manganese silicon has declined slightly, and the price of ferrosilicon has increased slightly. The technical forms of both have changed [44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate, and the black - building materials sector is in a weak state. Pay attention to the cost - push and supply - contraction factors [45][46]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has increased slightly, and the supply and demand are expected to increase. The price of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the inventory is high [47][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and the price of polysilicon is expected to be under pressure [48][50]. 3.4 Energy - Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has a slight decline, and the price of butadiene rubber has increased. The开工 rate of tire enterprises has recovered, and the inventory has increased [52][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and consider hedging strategies [54]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has increased significantly, and the inventories of related refined products have changed [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategy, do long on the spread of different oil types, and short on the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil and the INE - Brent spread [56]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices and futures prices of methanol have changed [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current price has included the geopolitical premium, and it is advisable to take profits at high prices [58]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices and futures prices of urea have changed [59][60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, and it is advisable to short - sell [61]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before considering long - positions [63]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price may rebound due to the cost sentiment of crude oil [65][66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a pressure of inventory accumulation, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction due to the tense situation in Iran. Pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions at low prices [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Observe the subsequent maintenance situation, and pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions following PX and crude oil [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX is in a state of inventory accumulation in the short term and is expected to turn to inventory reduction in March. Pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions following crude oil [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is supported by factors such as the reduction of geopolitical influence and the seasonal demand [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has decreased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and it is advisable to long - position the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [78]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs have different trends in different regions, and the supply is greater than the demand in most areas [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a bearish view on the near - term contracts and a relatively bullish but cautious view on the far - term contracts [81]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have minor changes, the supply is stable, and the inventory pressure has decreased [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the current price is supported, there is a potential pressure on the medium - term price [83]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The predicted production of Brazilian soybeans has been reduced, and the export and inventory data of soybeans have changed [84][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of CBOT soybeans has strengthened, but the domestic soybean inventory is high. Wait for the price to pull back before buying [87]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export and production data of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia have changed, and the inventory of domestic oils and fats has decreased [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of oils and fats is driven by the rise of crude oil prices. It is advisable to buy at low prices [89]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand have changed, and the price of raw sugar is at a low level [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Do not be overly bearish on raw sugar. It is advisable to buy a small amount of long - positions at low prices in the domestic market [92]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The predicted production of global cotton has decreased, and the export and inventory data of cotton have changed [93]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures have increased in position. Pay attention to the downstream start - up in March, and it is advisable to buy at low prices [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For rebar, the demand is sluggish, inventory is rising from a low level, traders' purchasing willingness is still weak, the real estate industry is in a downward cycle, and there are plans for capacity reduction in the country, so it is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the 3020 support level [1] - For hot-rolled coil, the supply and demand have weakened, the inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role. It is affected by the macro - market sentiment and is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the 3200 key support level and the policy guidance of the Two Sessions [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot and Basis - Rebar: The spot price is not given, and the basis is 115, which is bullish [1] - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price is 3230 yuan/ton, and the basis is 21, which is bullish [2] Profit and Cost - Not provided Capacity and Inventory - Rebar: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 6.3775 billion tons, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, which is bearish [1] - Hot - rolled coil: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 3.8161 billion tons, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, which is bearish [2] Rebar Demand and Downstream - The real estate market is still weak, demand is cooling, and the real estate industry is in a downward cycle [1] Hot - rolled Coil Demand and Downstream - The supply and demand are weak, and exports are blocked [2] Macro - Not provided

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs, with different trend outlooks for each commodity [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price Trend**: Iron ore prices are volatile as iron - water production declines [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of I2605 is 759.0 yuan/ton, up 7.0 yuan or 0.93%. The持仓 decreased by 26,804 hands. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores showed some changes, and basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [4]. - **News**: The GDP growth target in the 2026 government work report is adjusted to 4.5% - 5.0%, and the scale of policy - based financial instruments is increased. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 5.69 tons. Shanghai optimized real - estate policies [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price Trend**: Both rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a state of repeated fluctuations [2]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2605, the closing price is 3,075 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.10%. For hot - rolled coil HC2605, the closing price is 3,209 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan or - 0.19%. There are corresponding changes in trading volume, positions, spot prices, basis, and spreads [8]. - **News**: On March 5, the output of rebar increased by 8.21 tons, hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.5 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 103.89 tons. The Party Politburo discussed the "15th Five - Year Plan" and government work report. Shanghai optimized real - estate policies. In mid - February 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased significantly [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both rebar and hot - rolled coils is 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Trend**: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a wide - range volatile state [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2605 and 2607 are 5828 and 5912 respectively, with different price changes compared to the previous day. The closing prices of silicomanganese 2605 and 2607 are 6092 and 6114 respectively. Spot prices, basis, and spreads also have corresponding changes [12]. - **News**: There are price changes in ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions. Many manganese ore suppliers increased their April quotes. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. The electricity price for ferrosilicon production in some areas changed. The sea freight of manganese ore increased. In January 2026, South Africa's manganese ore exports increased [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Trend**: Coke has started the first round of price cuts and is in a wide - range volatile state. Coking coal is also in a wide - range volatile state [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of JM2605 for coking coal is 1105.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan or 0.8%. The closing price of J2605 for coke is 1676.5 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.3%. Spot prices, basis, and spreads have corresponding changes [16]. - **News**: On March 5, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed certain values. The coking coal online auction had a 30% non - sale rate, with an average premium of 15.2 yuan/ton [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [19]. Thermal Coal - **Price Trend**: The market sentiment is weak, and the short - term price fluctuates in a narrow range [2]. - **Fundamentals**: There are price changes in different regions and different calorific values of thermal coal, including domestic and overseas prices, as well as long - term agreement prices [20]. - **News**: On March 5, the thermal coal market sentiment was weak. The downstream daily consumption recovered slowly, and the port inventory increased. Indonesia set the 2026 domestic market obligation coal supply target [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity based on the northern port thermal coal spot price is - 1, indicating a bearish view [21]. Logs - **Price Trend**: Due to low inventory, the price is rising in a volatile manner [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts have corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions and for different types of logs also have certain trends [22]. - **News**: The 2026 government work report adjusted the GDP growth target and increased the scale of policy - based financial instruments. Shanghai optimized real - estate policies [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend outlooks and fundamental analysis for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the prices and trends of many commodities. For example, the conflict in the Middle East has led to concerns about inflation, affecting the prices of gold, oil, and other commodities. Additionally, factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, and inventory levels also play important roles in determining the price trends of different commodities [5][8][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out, and the price is affected by factors such as inflation concerns and changes in the US dollar index. The trend strength is 1 [5]. - **Silver**: In a volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 1 [2]. - **Platinum**: Continues to be weak, with a trend strength of 0 [25]. - **Palladium**: High - frequency data is sluggish, and it is in a low - level volatile state, with a trend strength of - 1 [25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The narrowing of the spot discount restricts the price decline. The trend strength is 0 [8]. - **Zinc**: In a range - bound pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [11]. - **Lead**: The reduction of overseas inventory restricts the price decline, with a trend strength of 0 [15]. - **Tin**: In a volatile adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: A slight correction, with a trend strength of 0 [22]. - **Alumina**: In a sideways volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [22]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [22]. - **Nickel**: The reality of the Indonesian ore end is catching up, and beware of speculative attributes in March, with a trend strength of 0 [30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The contradiction at the ore end increases marginally, and the cost support center moves up, with a trend strength of 0 [30]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Although not specifically mentioned in detail, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to concerns about supply, pushing up oil prices [5][8]. - **Fuel Oil**: Maintains a retracement trend and short - term high - volatility, with a trend strength of - 1 [133]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In a weak adjustment, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels continues to decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [133]. - **Natural Gas**: Not specifically analyzed in detail, but geopolitical factors may affect its supply and price [91]. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: In a wide - range volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [58]. - **Coke**: A first - round price cut has begun, and it is in a wide - range volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [57]. - **Steam Coal**: Market sentiment is weakening, and the short - term price fluctuates within a narrow range, with a trend strength of - 1 [62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The spill - over of sentiment finally arrives, showing a short - term strong performance, with a trend strength of 1 [158]. - **Soybean Oil**: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, it may break through upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [158]. - **Soybean Meal**: Rebounds and fluctuates, and pay attention to the situation in the Middle East, with a trend strength of 0 [165]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable and slightly strong, and the futures price fluctuates in adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [165]. - **Corn**: Fluctuates strongly, with a trend strength of 0 [168]. - **Sugar**: In a range - bound arrangement, with a trend strength of 0 [172]. - **Cotton**: Waiting for new drivers, with a trend strength of 1 [176]. - **Eggs**: Maintains a volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [180]. - **Hogs**: The inventory pressure is difficult to solve, and the weakness continues, with a trend strength of - 1 [183]. - **Peanuts**: Fluctuates, with a trend strength of 0 [188]. Chemical Products - **P - Xylene (PX)**: In a high - level volatile market, it is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA. The trend strength is 1 [68]. - **Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)**: In a high - level volatile market, with a trend strength of 1 [68]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: In a high - level volatile market, with a trend strength of 1 [68]. - **Rubber**: Fluctuates weakly, with a trend strength of - 1 [78]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price center moves up, with a trend strength of 1 [81]. - **Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE)**: The expectation of cracking supply contraction continues, and pay short - term high attention to geopolitical factors, with a trend strength of 2 [85]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The C3 raw material remains strong, and the reduction of PDH devices continues, with a trend strength of 2 [85]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by strong export expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [90]. - **Paper Pulp**: Fluctuates, with a trend strength of 0 [95]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend strength of 0 [102]. - **Methanol**: In a high - level volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [105]. - **Urea**: Fluctuates, with a trend strength of 0 [111]. - **Styrene**: Fluctuates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [115]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little, with a trend strength of 0 [117]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong, with a trend strength of 0 [122]. - **Propylene**: The cost end is affected by geopolitical factors, and the fundamentals remain tight, with a trend strength of 1 [122]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: In a range - bound pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [130]. Shipping Index - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to geopolitical sentiment disturbances, with a trend strength of 0 [135]. Fibers - **Short - Fiber**: Geopolitical risks are not eliminated, and it is short - term strong, with a trend strength of 1 [148]. - **Bottle - Grade Chip**: Geopolitical risks are not eliminated, and it is short - term strong, with a trend strength of 1 [148]. Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a trend strength of 0 [150]. Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: Fluctuates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [155].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 economic work is focused on improving quality and efficiency, with most risk assets rebounding. Overseas, attention should be paid to the Middle East situation, while domestically, focus on the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" [1]. - Overseas consumption confidence is recovering, industrial orders are showing a mixed trend, and geopolitical and institutional risks are rising. In the US, consumer confidence is rebounding, and core capital expenditure remains resilient, supporting industrial metals. However, policy discussions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are increasing risk premiums [1]. - The 2026 Government Work Report has five key points: a slightly lower economic growth target, stable fiscal and monetary policies, expanding domestic demand as a key task, highlighting the "dual - carbon" goal, and continuing the "anti - involution" work. Relevant equity and commodity assets in new and old infrastructure, consumption, and green transformation are worth noting [1]. - In terms of asset allocation, the focus is on structure, and it is necessary to distinguish whether conflicts spill over. If the war does not expand, non - ferrous metals and mid - cap styles have relative advantages; if the conflict expands, risk assets will be under pressure, while precious metals and energy will see an increase in safe - haven premiums. Currently, non - ferrous metals and precious metals are overweight, bonds are neutral with short - term bonds preferred, equities focus on mid - cap styles, iron ore is underweight in the black sector, and the energy and chemical sector should pay attention to the transmission rhythm of oil prices [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Macroeconomy - In February, US consumer confidence rebounded, indicating consumption resilience and limiting the space for "recession trading." In December, the total factory orders declined, but excluding transportation, they increased. Non - defense capital goods (excluding aircraft) continued to expand, and core capital expenditure remained resilient, which supported industrial metals [1]. - Policy discussions around the Wash nominee are intensifying, and the risk premium is affecting the pricing of the US dollar and interest rates. Coupled with the intensification of the US - Iran situation and Israeli air strikes on Iran, the Middle East situation is heating up, pushing up energy and safe - haven premiums [1]. Domestic Macroeconomy - The 2026 Government Work Report has five key points: a slightly lower economic growth target is in line with the requirement of improving economic quality and efficiency; fiscal and monetary policies are generally stable; expanding domestic demand may be the key task this year, with new and old infrastructure and consumption upgrading as the main focuses; the "dual - carbon" goal remains prominent, and the demand for green transformation - related commodities is broad; the "anti - involution" work will continue, aiming to ensure economic quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [1]. Asset Views - If the war does not expand further and energy production, transportation, and the passage of the strait are not substantially affected, non - ferrous metals and mid - cap styles still have relative advantages. If the conflict expands and affects global risk appetite, risk assets will be under pressure in the short term, equities and industrial metals will face pressure, and the safe - haven premiums of precious metals and energy will further increase [1]. - Currently, non - ferrous metals and precious metals are recommended to be over - allocated, bonds are generally neutral with short - term bonds preferred, equities focus on mid - cap styles, iron ore in the black sector is under - allocated, and the energy and chemical sector should pay attention to the transmission rhythm of oil prices [1]. Market Conditions of Various Varieties - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all expected to fluctuate. Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate strongly due to geopolitical conflicts and other factors [1][4]. - **Shipping Sector**: Container shipping on the European route is expected to fluctuate due to geopolitical uncertainties [4]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Steel, iron ore, coke, and other varieties are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as cost, production, and policy affecting the market [4]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as supply concerns, the US dollar index, and geopolitical conflicts influencing the prices [4]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, and other varieties are expected to fluctuate, with geopolitical situations and supply - demand relationships being the main influencing factors [4][5]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Oils, protein meals, and other agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as trade, weather, and policies affecting the market [5]. Market Fluctuations - **Financial Market**: On March 5, 2026, the CSI 300 futures rose 0.7%, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 futures rose 0.33%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.02%. The US dollar index fell 0.27% [7]. - **Industry Index**: On March 5, 2026, the machinery industry index rose 1.46%, the electronic industry index rose 2.01%, and the national defense and military industry index rose 0.51% [8][9]. - **Overseas Commodities**: On March 4, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 2.08%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 1.45%, and COMEX gold rose 0.54% [10][11]. - **Domestic Commodities**: On March 5, 2026, the container shipping on the European route fell 9.78%, domestic gold fell 0.08%, and domestic crude oil rose 0.51% [12][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - During the Two Sessions, the expectation of policy - driven stable growth provides demand support for the infrastructure and manufacturing sectors, and the "anti - involution" policy adjustment strengthens the price bottom support. Geopolitical risks increase energy valuations and shipping costs, strengthening cost - side support. However, the current steel inventory is relatively high year - on - year, the fundamental contradictions remain unresolved, the peak - season expectations are still cautious, the first round of coke price cuts has started, and there is still pressure on coking coal supply, so the upward driving force of the sector is limited [1] - Overall, it is still the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, the peak - season expectations are cautious, the upward driving force of the market is limited, and there is a risk of a high - level correction after the price rally. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the realization of peak - season demand [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The supply - side shipments have recovered but there are still disturbance expectations. The pressure of high shipments and high inventory is difficult to relieve in the short term. With the end of the Spring Festival, the weight of fundamental pricing is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large, and iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly [2][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term supply - demand weakness pattern in the scrap steel market is gradually improving. Demand recovery is slightly faster than supply, and the fundamentals provide some support for prices, which are expected to oscillate [2][9] 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: Although there are short - term disturbances in hot metal, there is still long - term rigid demand support for coke. After the first round of spot price cuts, the possibility of further cuts is small, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal [2][11] - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, but under the high import of Mongolian coal, there is still real - world pressure on the fundamentals of coking coal. The spot is expected to run weakly and stably, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely [2][12] 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, with insufficient fundamental support. There is resistance in cost - side downward transmission, and the upstream inventory is high. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the futures price, and there is a risk of correction when the futures price rises above the cost line [2][16] - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. Continuous price increases may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, weakening the supply - demand relationship. There is a risk of high - level correction when the futures valuation quickly recovers above the cost line [2][17] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply still has disturbance expectations, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no obvious improvement in demand after the Lantern Festival, high inventory will always suppress prices [3][6][13] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [6][13][15] 5. Steel - The spot market is gradually recovering. After the Spring Festival, the output of rebar has increased, but the output of hot - rolled coils has decreased slightly. The overall output of the five major steel products has changed little. Demand is slowly recovering, but it is still at a low level. Steel inventories continue to accumulate, and the fundamental contradictions need time to be resolved. The upward driving force of the market is limited, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand [8] 6. Commodity Index - On March 5, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2510.23, up 1.04%; the commodity 20 index was 2869.81, up 1.11%; the industrial products index was 2430.86, up 1.36%. The steel industry chain index on March 5, 2026, was 1929.45, with a daily increase of 0.38%, a 5 - day increase of 1.42%, a 1 - month decrease of 2.30%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.36% [102][104]

Report Overview - This is a steel morning report from the Black Team of the Research Center on March 6, 2026, covering spot prices, price and profit, production and inventory, basis and spread [1] Spot Prices Rebar - Beijing rebar price increased from 3070 on February 27, 2026, to 3120 on March 4, 2026 [1] - Shanghai rebar price decreased from 3200 on February 27, 2026, to 3170 on March 4, 2026 [1] - Chengdu rebar price remained at 3330 from February 27 to March 4, 2026 [1] - Xi'an rebar price remained at 3240 from February 27 to March 4, 2026 [1] - Guangzhou rebar price decreased from 3400 on February 27, 2026, to 3390 on March 4, 2026 [1] - Wuhan rebar price remained at 3300 from February 27 to March 4, 2026 [1] Hot Rolled Coil - Tianjin hot rolled coil price remained at 3120 from February 27 to March 5, 2026 [1] - Shanghai hot rolled coil price increased from 3210 on February 27, 2026, to 3250 on March 5, 2026 [1] - Lecong hot rolled coil price remained at 3220 from February 27 to March 5, 2026 [1] Cold Rolled Coil - Tianjin cold rolled coil price remained at 3540 from February 27 to March 5, 2026 [1] - Shanghai cold rolled coil price remained at 3540 from February 27 to March 5, 2026 [1] - Lecong cold rolled coil price remained at 3680 from February 27 to March 5, 2026 [1] Other Sections - The report also mentions "Price and Profit", "Production and Inventory", and "Basis and Spread", but no detailed content is provided [2][9][13]

Report Information - Report Title: Goldtrust Futures Daily Newsletter - Date: March 6, 2026 [1] - Investment Advisory Team Members: Yao Xinghang, Zhou Zhutao, Wang Jingzheng, Zhang Zhaoju, Zhong Zhumin, Lin Jingwei, Diao Zhiguo, Yang Yanlong, Cheng Wei [26] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The current core drivers of the crude oil price increase are the Middle East conflict and the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. In the short term, it will fluctuate at a high level, and in the medium term, the price will depend on the supply-demand situation and the pace of geopolitical easing [2]. - A-share market opened higher in the morning,冲高 in the morning and fell back in the afternoon, showing a rebound trend. Technically, the small cycle at the 5-minute level is approaching the end, and it is expected that there will be a need for adjustment after the morning rally tomorrow [5]. - Gold showed a volatile trend during the day, and although it rebounded at the end of the session, there are signs of weakness in the short term [9]. - For iron ore, the supply is expected to be loose in the medium and long term, and the terminal demand needs time to start. Technically, the trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a volatile market [11][12]. - For glass, it should be regarded as a wide-range volatile market. The daily melting is slightly reduced, and the factory inventory is accumulating during the seasonal off-season. The resumption of work progress of deep processing after the festival needs to be concerned. Technically, the recent trend is unclear [14][15]. - For methanol, about 60% of China's 14 million tons of imported methanol comes from Iran, and the influence weight of Iranian goods on the disk pricing is about 50%. Therefore, any change in Iran will cause obvious fluctuations in the domestic disk [17]. - For pulp, the trading sentiment in the spot market is average, the port inventory in China continues to accumulate, and it takes time to digest the inventory after the festival. Some paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the local inversion phenomenon of double-offset paper and coated paper is serious. The futures disk has shown a range-bound consolidation trend recently [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Short-term (1 month): Geopolitical premium dominates, with WTI ranging from $72 to $78 and Brent from $78 to $85. The key variables are the navigation of the strait and the escalation of the conflict. If the situation eases, the premium will quickly decline; if the blockade intensifies, Brent may reach $90. OPEC+ will maintain production cuts in March and slightly increase production in April, with short-term supply being tight and low inventory providing support [2]. - Medium-term (2 - 3 months): The supply-demand fundamentals will return to the dominant position. In Q1 2026, the global supply surplus reached its peak, with a daily surplus of about 2.9 million barrels and an annual surplus of 2.3 - 3.7 million barrels. Only China and India have moderate growth in demand, while Europe and the United States are stagnant, and the weak manufacturing restricts the upward movement. If the geopolitical situation eases, the oil price center will move down to $65 - $75; if the conflict continues, the high-level fluctuations will intensify [2]. - Trading strategy: Strictly control stop-loss in the short term and buy on dips [3] A-share Market - The A-share market showed a rebound trend today. Technically, the small cycle at the 5-minute level is approaching the end, and it is expected that there will be a need for adjustment after the morning rally tomorrow. The morning rally tomorrow is a good opportunity to short [5] Gold - Gold showed a volatile trend during the day, and although it rebounded at the end of the session, there are signs of weakness in the short term [9] Iron Ore - The supply from Australia and Brazil maintains a normal rhythm, and the mine production capacity is in the release cycle in the medium and long term, so the supply is expected to be loose. On the demand side, steel mills resume production after the festival, but the terminal demand needs time to start. Technically, the trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a volatile market [11][12] Glass - The daily melting is slightly reduced, and the factory inventory is accumulating during the seasonal off-season. The resumption of work progress of deep processing after the festival needs to be concerned. Technically, the recent trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a wide-range volatile market [14][15] Methanol - China imports about 14 million tons of methanol annually, accounting for slightly more than 10% of the total consumption (domestic production is about 92 million tons). About 60% of this 14 million tons of imports comes from Iran, and the influence weight of Iranian goods on the disk pricing is about 50%. Therefore, any change in Iran will cause obvious fluctuations in the domestic disk [17] Pulp - The trading sentiment in the pulp spot market is average, the port inventory in China continues to accumulate, and it takes time to digest the inventory after the festival. Some paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the local inversion phenomenon of double-offset paper and coated paper is serious. The futures disk has shown a range-bound consolidation trend recently [19]

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes high-quality development and sustainable growth, balancing long-term goals with short-term necessities, while maintaining a flexible and proactive monetary and fiscal policy [4][17]. Macro: Greater Emphasis on Sustainability - The report highlights the need to reform economic cycles to enhance internal growth momentum, setting a GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% for 2026, which reflects a pragmatic approach to economic management [5][17]. - Monetary policy remains flexible, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic stability [6][31]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a similar scale to the previous year, with a slight increase in new debt issuance, focusing on structural adjustments and supporting consumption and investment [6][27]. Consumption and Investment - The report stresses the importance of stimulating domestic consumption through structural policies and temporary measures, including a 2,500 billion yuan special bond for consumer goods and a 1,000 billion yuan fund to promote domestic demand [9][18]. - It aims to enhance residents' income and improve the employment-friendly nature of the industrial structure, with specific measures to support low-income groups and improve social security [9][18]. Industry Policy and Technological Innovation - The report prioritizes the cultivation of new economic drivers and high-level technological self-reliance, with a focus on sectors like integrated circuits, aerospace, and biomedicine [10][18]. - It emphasizes the need for innovation and the commercialization of technological achievements, aiming to leverage China's large market and complete industrial system to enhance efficiency and drive economic growth [11][18]. Financial Sector Insights - The report indicates a continued focus on stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand through fiscal injections into banks and new policy financial tools, which are expected to support credit demand [30][34]. - The issuance of special bonds to support state-owned banks is anticipated to enhance their capital and ability to support the real economy [32][34]. Real Estate Market Focus - The report reiterates the importance of addressing real estate supply issues, emphasizing inventory reduction and quality supply, which is crucial for stabilizing housing prices [38][39]. - It highlights the need for reforms in housing provident funds and improving the supply of affordable housing, aiming to create a more sustainable real estate market [38][39]. Energy and Environmental Policies - The report outlines goals for energy security and carbon reduction, aiming to enhance energy production capacity and promote green development [24][42]. - It emphasizes the importance of developing a new energy system and advancing low-carbon technologies, with specific targets for carbon emissions reduction [46][47].