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对二甲苯:地缘风险加剧,趋势走强,月差正套,PTA:地缘风险加剧,单边走势偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 01:55
请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年06月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯:地缘风险加剧,趋势走强,月差正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA:地缘风险加剧,单边走势偏强 | 2 | | MEG:地缘风险加剧,短期偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶:震荡偏强 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:地缘问题反复,偏强运行 | 6 | | 沥青:地缘局势升级,继续高位运行 | 8 | | LLDPE:反弹难持续,中期震荡市 | 10 | | PP:现货震荡,成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱:高利润背景下估值承压,但短期低位不宜追空 | 13 | | 纸浆:震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇:偏强运行 | 18 | | 尿素:短期震荡运行,日内波动关注现货成交 | 20 | | 苯乙烯:短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱:现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG:地缘冲突加剧供应担忧,盘面风险攀升 | 25 | | PVC:短期震荡,趋势仍有压力 | 28 | | 燃料油:夜盘窄幅调整,短期易涨难跌 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油:相对 ...
广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250620
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 07:08
| 业期现日报 【2011 1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月20日 纪元菲 20013180 | | | | | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品科 | 6月19日 | 6月18日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 8150 | 8150 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 童美(通室SI5530星准) | 725 | 790 | -65 | -8.23% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 8700 | 8700 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 475 | 540 | -65 | -12.04% | | | 新疆99硅 | 7600 | 7600 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 975 | 1040 | -65 | -6.25% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 6月19日 | 6月18日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2507-2508 | ...
对二甲苯:海内外供应偏紧,趋势走强,月差正套,PTA:成本支撑,基差月差正套,MEG:伊朗多套装置停车,短期偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 01:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, both domestic and imported PX supplies are tight, leading to a continuous upward trend. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on SC. The PXN spread has expanded to $261/ton, and short - term calendar spread arbitrage (buy near - term and sell far - term) is advisable [7][8]. - PTA: Supported by cost factors, both the single - side position and the calendar and basis spreads are strong. Despite increased maintenance by polyester bottle - chip and short - fiber factories, PTA supply remains tight, causing the basis to strengthen significantly [8]. - MEG: With the shutdown of Iranian ethylene glycol plants, MEG is expected to be in a short - term upward - trending and volatile state. It is recommended to reduce the position of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Attention should be paid to the operating status and shipping changes of Iranian ethylene glycol plants under the Israel - Iran conflict [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Variation**: On June 19, 2025, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 7094, 4988, 4539, 6794, and 3998 respectively, with daily changes of 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.6%, and 2.0% [1]. - **Calendar Spread**: The PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB07 calendar spreads on June 19 were 272, 206, 23, 74, and - 469 respectively, with daily changes of 52, 38, 7, 28, and 50 [1]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA07 - PF07, PF07 processing margin, and PTA09 - LU09 spreads on June 19 were 377, 449, - 1636, 887, and 1040 respectively, with daily changes of 5, 6, - 26, 20, and 12 [1]. - **Basis and Other Spreads**: The PX, PTA, MEG, PF basis, and PX - naphtha spreads on June 19 were 251, 270, 85, - 4, and 255 respectively, with daily changes of - 106, - 60, - 1, - 48, and no change [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 19, the PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts were 37468, 6052, 5464, 0, and 4029000 respectively, with daily changes of - 43123, no change, no change, - 5, and no change [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX Market**: On June 19, the PX price continued to rise, with an estimated price of $904/ton, up $16 from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread expanded to $261.38/ton. The PTA operating rate in China dropped from 82.6% to 79.1% due to plant maintenance, while the polyester operating rate was estimated at 92%, a 1.2% increase from the previous week [3][4]. - **PTA Market**: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the Northeast has shut down, and a 4.5 - million - ton plant in the South is gradually shutting down for about two months of maintenance. The PTA operating rate has dropped, and the Honggang Petrochemical Phase 3 2.5 - million - ton plant has started production and is operating at over 90% capacity [4][5]. - **MEG Market**: Two ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with a combined capacity of 1.4 million tons/year are scheduled to restart soon. As of June 19, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 70.33% (up 4.08% from the previous period), and a new 600,000 - ton/year synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol plant in Sichuan has been put into production [5][6]. - **Polyester Market**: The operating rate of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers has increased slightly, with an overall theoretical operating rate of about 73.2%. As of Thursday, the polyester operating rate in mainland China was around 92%. On June 19, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average production - sales ratio of 54%, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light, with an average production - sales ratio of about 30% [6][7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [8].
PTA、MEG早报-20250616
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 03:32
重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年6月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA: 6、预期:以色列袭击伊朗,油价大幅上涨拉动PTA价格上行,但PTA自身前期检修装置陆续重启,叠加新装置投产,供需格局转 弱,预计短期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡,基差方面,短期内现货市场货源偏紧,现货基差偏强运行,伴随供应回归后续有 回落预期。关注伊以局势发展。 1、基本面:周五,部分聚酯工厂递盘。个别主流供应商出7月货源。下周货在09+220~227附近有成交,价格商谈区间在 4860~5160附近,夜盘价格偏低端。6月底在09+210~220附近有成交。7月中在09+180有成交,7月下在09+170有成交,供应商7 ...
中辉期货能化观点-20250613
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 03:22
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given reports 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: High - altitude operation is recommended as geopolitical premiums are being squeezed out, and supply pressure is rising. Consider short - selling with a light position. SC should be monitored in the range of [485 - 500] [1][5] - **LPG**: The market is in consolidation. Sell call options. PG should be monitored in the range of [4100 - 4200] [1][7] - **L**: Bearish consolidation. The fundamental upward momentum is insufficient. Consider short - selling on rebounds. Upstream enterprises can sell - hedge when appropriate. L should be monitored in the range of [7000 - 7200] [1][11] - **PP**: Bearish consolidation. The fundamental upward momentum is insufficient. Consider short - selling on rebounds. Downstream enterprises can buy - hedge when appropriate. PP should be monitored in the range of [6900 - 7000] [1][13] - **PVC**: Bearish consolidation. The upward driving force is insufficient. Participate in the short - term. V should be monitored in the range of [4750 - 4850] [1][15] - **PX**: Cautiously go long at low levels. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out long positions on pullbacks. PX should be monitored in the range of [6500 - 6620] [1][16] - **PTA**: Bearish. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out short positions at high levels. TA should be monitored in the range of [4590 - 4690] [1][19] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out short positions at high levels. EG should be monitored in the range of [4220 - 4280] [1][21] - **Glass**: The price is expected to decline under pressure. FG should be monitored in the range of [960 - 990], and it will face resistance at the 1000 - level [2][26] - **Soda Ash**: The market remains weak. After a narrow - range shock, it will continue the bearish trend, suppressed by the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages. SA should be monitored in the range of [1140 - 1180] [2][29] - **Caustic Soda**: Suppressed by the moving averages. SH should be monitored in the range of [2260 - 2310] [2][32] - **Methanol**: Bearish consolidation. Consider laying out short positions at high levels. MA should be monitored in the range of [2260 - 2290] [2][33] - **Urea**: The price is relatively weak, but the downside space is limited. Be cautious when short - selling. UR should be monitored in the range of [1620 - 1650] [2] - **Asphalt**: Bearish consolidation. The valuation is high, and the cost is falling. Try short - selling with a light position. BU should be monitored in the range of [3475 - 3545] [2] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Supply**: EIA's latest monthly report shows that US crude oil production will decrease from 13.42 million barrels per day this year to 13.37 million barrels per day in 2026, while global crude oil production is expected to increase to 104.4 million barrels per day [5] - **Demand**: In May, China's crude oil imports were 46.6 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to May were 229.615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. IEA maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 740,000 barrels per day and raises the demand growth in 2026 by 70,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day [5] - **Inventory**: As of the week ending June 6, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.644 million barrels to 432.4 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 1.504 million barrels to 229.8 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.246 million barrels to 108.8 million barrels [5] LPG - **Cost and Profit**: As of June 11, the PDH device profit was - 1016 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 42 yuan/ton, and the alkylation device profit was - 210.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply**: As of the week ending June 13, the total LPG commodity volume was 529,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8500 tons, and the civil LPG commodity volume was 228,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4100 tons [8] - **Demand**: As of the week ending June 13, the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil were 64.30%, 59.70%, and 47.14% respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 1.29pct, + 4.98pct, and - 0.40pct [8] - **Inventory**: As of the week ending June 13, refinery inventories were 169,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7200 tons, and port inventories were 2.928 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 142,400 tons [8] L - **Supply**: This week's production increased by 3% month - on - month, and with many downstream device restart plans, production is expected to continue to increase [11] - **Inventory**: Social inventories have started to accumulate, and in the off - season of agricultural film demand, downstream restocking motivation is insufficient, with a risk of continued inventory accumulation in the middle reaches [11] PP - **Supply**: Weekly production has increased, but with more short - term maintenance devices next week, production is expected to decline. There is high pressure from new device production in June - July, and supply is abundant [13] - **Demand**: It is the domestic off - season, export margins are low, and overseas market transactions are weak, resulting in increased supply and decreased demand [13] - **Inventory**: There is pressure for inventory accumulation in the middle reaches [13] PVC - **Supply**: Social inventories are in a de - stocking trend. A 300,000 - ton new device of Shaanxi Jintai was put into operation at the beginning of the month, and more device maintenance is expected next week, with a possible further reduction in supply [15] - **Demand**: Southern demand has declined marginally due to the rainy season, but weekly export orders have remained above 20,000 tons. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand [15] PX - **Supply**: PX profits have continued to improve, and domestic and overseas device operating loads have increased, leading to increased supply pressure. The weekly operating rate is 83.4% (+ 4.8pct), and the weekly output is 700,000 tons (+ 40,000 tons) [17] - **Demand**: Downstream PTA maintenance devices have restarted, and there are production plans in June, with improved demand expectations [17] - **Inventory**: In April, PX inventories decreased to 4.2503 million tons (- 427,700 tons), which is lower than the same period last year but still at a high level in the past five years [17] PTA - **Supply**: PTA maintenance devices have restarted, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The weekly operating rate is 79.0% (+ 1.4pct), and the weekly output is 1.371 million tons (+ 23,000 tons) [19] - **Demand**: The operating loads of downstream polyester and terminal weaving continue to decline. Polyester product weighted inventories have stopped falling and started to rise, and terminal weaving orders have decreased [19] - **Inventory**: PTA social inventories have continued to decline. The available days of social inventories are 12.3 days (- 0.3 days), and the social inventory in April was 4.25 million tons (- 554,000 tons) [19] Ethylene Glycol - **Supply**: There has been an increase in device maintenance, and the arrival volume is low, alleviating supply pressure. The weekly maintenance loss is 290,000 tons (+ 5000 tons), and the daily output is 47,200 tons (+ 1000 tons) [22] - **Demand**: The operating loads of downstream polyester and terminal weaving continue to decline. Polyester product weighted inventories have stopped falling and started to rise [22] - **Inventory**: Social inventories are in a de - stocking trend, and port inventories are low compared to the same period [22] Glass - **Macro Environment**: The decline in China's PPI has widened, and the deflation pattern in industrial products has not been alleviated. The construction PMI has dropped by 0.9 percentage points to 51, and the mid - term demand for glass is shrinking [26] - **Supply**: In the short - term rainy season and high - temperature period, coal - fired production lines still have profits, making it difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. Supply - side start - up and daily melting volume are fluctuating at a low level [26] - **Demand**: Upstream inventories have started to increase, mid - stream trader inventories are being de - stocked, and downstream deep - processing orders are lower than the same period. Spot market quotes have generally been lowered [26] Soda Ash - **Supply**: Alkali plant maintenance devices are gradually restarting, and new production capacity is being put into production, increasing market supply pressure [29] - **Demand**: The daily melting volume of float glass has decreased, and the photovoltaic installation boom has subsided, resulting in insufficient rigid demand support for soda ash [29] - **Inventory**: Alkali plant inventory removal speed has slowed down, and the total inventory is at a relatively high level compared to historical periods [29] Caustic Soda - **Supply**: There has been a lot of device maintenance in the caustic soda market recently, but the maintenance scale in June is smaller than last month, and there is still pressure from new production. Supply is expected to gradually recover in the middle and later part of the month [32] - **Demand**: Terminal demand is differentiated. The production of downstream alumina in Shandong supports prices, but non - aluminum markets are观望. Non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices, and overall demand support for prices is limited [32] - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda sample enterprise factory inventories are 405,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 2.3% [32] Methanol - **Supply**: The profit of coal - made methanol is relatively good, and the device operating load remains high. The expected arrival of Iranian methanol has been gradually realized, and non - Iranian supplies have increased, increasing supply pressure [2] - **Demand**: The operating load of MTO devices has continued to recover, but with poor profits, the space for further load increase is limited. Traditional demand is in a seasonal off - season [2] - **Inventory**: Inventories are accumulating, and the arbitrage window between coastal and inland methanol remains closed, with inland enterprise inventories increasing [2] Urea - **Supply**: Daily production remains at a high level, and supply pressure is relatively large [2] - **Demand**: It is currently the off - season for domestic agricultural urea consumption. After the end of the southern rainy season, the demand for top - dressing corn and fertilizing rice in the north is expected to be realized, and industrial demand is neutral. Fertilizer exports have grown rapidly this year [2] - **Cost**: The overall cost is weak, but there is still bottom - end support [2] Asphalt - **Supply**: Supply has increased, and inventories have accumulated [2] - **Demand**: There is rigid demand in the north, but demand in the south is expected to decline due to the rainy season, showing a "strong north, weak south" pattern [2]
对二甲苯:油价大幅上涨,估值重塑,PTA:成本推升,反套离场,MEG:多PTA空MEG
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 01:33
2025 年 6 月 13 日 对二甲苯:油价大幅上涨,估值重塑 商 品 研 究 PTA:成本推升,反套离场 MEG:多 PTA 空 MEG 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-12 | 6536 | 4620 | 4234 | 6362 | 3645 | | 2025-06-11 | 6528 | 4620 | 4285 | 6414 | 3563 | | 2025-06-10 | 6502 | 4612 | 4269 | 6358 | 3559 | | 2025-06-09 | 6494 | 4602 | 4256 | 6388 | 3514 | | 2025-06-06 | 6556 | 4652 | 4261 | 6394 | 3525 | | 日度变化 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -1.2% | -0.8% | 2.3% | | 月 差 | P X( 9 - 1) | P T ...
近期原油震荡偏强,PXN压缩
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 05:16
化工日报 | 2025-06-12 PX方面,上上个交易日PXN244美元/吨(环比变动+3.40美元/吨)。近期国内外PX负荷整体提升,一方面是集中检修 期陆续结束,另一方面也与利润修复有关。随着供应恢复,PXN有所回落,不过目前现货市场货源仍较紧张,关 注后续PTA检修和新装置投产进展,PX供需偏紧能否延续。 TA方面,TA主力合约现货基差 218 元/吨(环比变动+1元/吨),PTA现货加工费423元/吨(环比变动+1元/吨),主力 合约盘面加工费365元/吨(环比变动+5元/吨),PTA装置逐步重启下供应趋于宽松,6月整体平衡小幅去库,基本 面尚可,持续去库下现货市场流通性偏紧,但同时聚酯减产情绪强烈,影响需求预期,关注成本和需求支撑。 需求方面,聚酯开工率91.1%(环比-0.6%),5月下旬以来终端订单再度转弱,坯布重新累库,下游织造、加弹开 工开始小幅回落,当前以消耗库存为主,原料补库意愿不强。近期聚酯负荷高位下滑,低利润下各品种陆续减产, 淡季下需求预期偏弱。 PF方面,现货生产利润29元/吨(环比+22元/吨)。终端需求转弱下,下游纱线库存增加。在短纤工厂减产及减部 分合约等操作下,市场低位 ...
宏源期货日刊-20250610
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 01:47
| G | M | E | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 新 | 期 | 单 | 位 | 值 | 前 | ...
化工日报:乙烷消息扰动下EG冲高回落-20250606
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 03:02
化工日报 | 2025-06-06 乙烷消息扰动下EG冲高回落 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面:昨日EG主力合约收盘价4283元/吨(较前一交易日变动-9元/吨,幅度-0.21%),EG华东市场现货价4430 元/吨(较前一交易日变动+15元/吨,幅度+0.34%),EG华东现货基差(基于2509合约)130元/吨(环比+2元/吨)。 早间受美国乙烷出口受阻消息影响,乙二醇盘面快速拉涨,现货高位成交至4465元/吨附近,随后市场趋于冷静, 盘面震荡回落,另外隆众口径EG港口库存较周一增长3.77万吨,EG价格回落。 生产利润方面:乙烯制EG生产利润为-37美元/吨(环比-8美元/吨),煤制合成气制EG生产利润为92元/吨(环比-57 元/吨)。 库存方面:根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据,MEG 华东主港库存为62.1万吨(环比-6.6万吨);根据隆众每周四发布 的数据, MEG 华东主港库存为59.8万吨(环比+2.1万吨)。上周主港实际到货总数6.2万吨,到港量偏少,港口去 库幅度明显;本周华东主港计划到港总数10.8万吨,中性偏低。 整体基本面供需逻辑:供应端,卫星、恒力等几套大装置检修时间较长,6月国内 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20250605
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 01:46
2025年06月05日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯:估值高位,反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA:供增需减,反套 | 2 | | MEG:多PTA空MEG逢高离场 | 2 | | 橡胶:震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:短期震荡承压 | 6 | | 沥青:震荡延续 | 8 | | LLDPE:短期不追空,后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP:价格小跌,成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱:强现实弱预期,关注成本变动 | 13 | | 纸浆:震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇:短期低位反弹 | 18 | | 尿素:震荡承压 | 20 | | 苯乙烯:短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱:现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG:短期震荡运行 | 24 | | PVC:短期不追空,趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油:弱势延续,短期将进入调整走势 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油:小幅 ...