Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The LPG substitution limit for naphtha in Asia is approximately 70 - 80 tons per month. If the LPG substitution volume continues to increase, the supply - demand gap for Asian naphtha in November may be temporarily filled, and attention should be paid to the probability of marginal weakening of naphtha under large - scale LPG substitution [1][33][40] - The escalation of the Sino - US trade conflict will affect the substitution volume of Chinese cracking units through increased costs, and the specific impact needs to be considered based on the direction of tariff policies [40] Summary by Directory 1. LPG Asian Price Rapidly Weakens - On September 30, Saudi Aramco announced the October CP price. Propane dropped by $25/ton to $495/ton, and butane dropped by $15 to $475/ton. The landed cost was about 4,259 yuan/ton for propane and 4,196 yuan/ton for butane, significantly lower than the previous market expectation of $520 - 530/ton. The CP decline led to a sharp drop in the overall Asian propane market [1][5] - During the National Day holiday, the FEI paper cargo dropped by about $30/ton, and the CP paper cargo dropped by nearly $50/ton. The significant weakening of C3 raw materials led to the weak performance of the post - holiday C3 industrial chain prices [5] 2. Propane Market Share Changes after Sino - US Tariff Game 2.1 China's Import Logistics Changes - After April this year, due to the mutual imposition of punitive tariffs between China and the US, China's LPG import logistics changed significantly. Before April 2025, US sources accounted for over 50% of China's LPG imports. After the tariffs, the volume of LPG imported from the US decreased sharply, and most of the supply gap shifted to the Middle East [6][9] 2.2 US Propane Flow Changes - As the US LPG gradually lost its market share in China, its flow became more diversified, directly impacting the North Asian and South Asian markets. The proportion of US exports to China decreased rapidly, while exports to Japan, South Korea, India, and South America increased significantly, showing a more decentralized logistics characteristic [10][12] 2.3 Indian Market Game - The significant drop in Saudi Aramco's CP official price is reported to be for competing for the South Asian market share. India's LPG import pattern has changed from almost solely relying on the Middle East to mainly sourcing from the Middle East with a gradually increasing US share. In 2025, the US - India energy cooperation framework was reached, and in August, due to the US threatening India over its purchase of Russian crude oil, India increased its purchase of other US energy forms as a compromise [13][16][17] - The Middle East is expected to increase LPG production in the future. With the need to digest the incremental supply and considering the future large - scale launch of US export terminal facilities, a price war seems inevitable [17] 3. Impact of "Low - price" LPG on the Energy - Chemical Industry Chain - The significant drop in LPG prices led to a rapid decline in the prices of the entire C3 industrial chain (on the futures market). The previous large - scale losses of PDH plants have been effectively improved, and the expected operating rate of PDH is likely to increase, which in turn caused the prices of downstream polypropylene products (including propylene oxide, acrylonitrile, etc.) to drop rapidly [19] - The decline in LPG prices also affects the price of naphtha, the central pricing factor for this year's chemical products. After the price drop, Asian petrochemical plants' willingness to purchase LPG has rapidly increased [19] 4. Essence of Ethylene Cracking Raw Material Substitution 4.1 Process Basis for Raw Material Substitution - Ethylene cracking furnaces can be divided into gas cracking furnaces, liquid cracking furnaces, and gas - liquid homogeneous cracking furnaces. When discussing propane substitution in ethylene cracking, it involves two issues: increasing the load of existing cracking furnaces and directly switching raw materials in gas - liquid homogeneous cracking furnaces. The latter has more options for raw material substitution, but the downstream processing capacity limits the degree of raw material substitution [25] 4.2 Ethylene Raw Material Structure and Substitution in Asian Regions - Japan and South Korea are the main Northeast Asian countries that purchase ethylene cracking raw materials externally, and their external naphtha purchases account for nearly 40% of the total in Asia. They are often the vanguards for raw material switching in the Asian market. Currently, LPG accounts for about 20% of the ethylene cracking raw materials in Japan and South Korea, equivalent to an LPG usage of 835 tons per year. With a 20% overload, it is about 170 tons more per year, equivalent to an economic substitution of about 10 - 20 tons per month [26][28] - China and Southeast Asia have a larger proportion of ethylene production capacity. China's ethylene cracking raw material structure mainly includes traditional naphtha/LPG cracking, light hydrocarbon cracking, and MTO. In traditional cracking processes, the ratio of naphtha to LPG is generally 8:2. The maximum LPG usage through overload substitution in China's traditional ethylene cracking capacity is about 30 tons per month, and in Southeast Asia, it is about 20 - 25 tons per month [31] 5. Historical Back - testing and Impact on Naphtha 5.1 Historical Back - testing - The LPG substitution limit for naphtha in Asia is approximately 70 - 80 tons per month. With the recent significant drop in LPG prices, the profit gap between the two has widened, and the economic viability of using LPG in cracking units has increased significantly [33] - Historically, in some extreme situations (such as October 2021, March - April 2022), the monthly LPG substitution volume could reach about 80 tons. Whether this substitution volume will change the fundamentals of naphtha this year remains to be seen [37] 5.2 Impact on Asian Naphtha Supply and Demand - The recent drop in LPG prices will lead to significant substitution of cracking raw materials in Asia. Previously, the high E/W price spread of Asian naphtha has led to a historical high in East - West arbitrage logistics. Meanwhile, the overall demand of downstream ethylene cracking has been weaker than expected due to deep losses and seasonal maintenance. If the LPG substitution volume continues to increase, the supply - demand gap for Asian naphtha in November may be temporarily filled, and attention should be paid to the probability of marginal weakening of naphtha [37] 6. Escalation of Sino - US Trade War and Ship Control - According to the latest US port - calling fee policy for Chinese - related ships, ethane and propane ships need to pay a $50/ton berthing fee at US ports. This will directly increase the cost of importing ethane and propane. For ethane, the impact on domestic raw material selection is not significant for now, but for US - imported propane, it may significantly affect the substitution volume between propane and naphtha in China. However, since China's proportion of purchasing US propane has decreased, the specific impact needs further consideration [39] 7. Summary - From the perspective of the raw material structure in Asia, the LPG substitution limit is about 80 tons per month. If this substitution volume acts on the currently weakening Asian naphtha supply - demand situation, it may fill the supply - demand gap in November and lead to a short - term supply - demand inflection point [40] - In addition to the economic factors of LPG substitution, the recent escalation of the Sino - US trade conflict will also affect the substitution volume of Chinese cracking units through increased costs, and the specific impact depends on the direction of tariff policies [40]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **LPG**: Short - term weak operation. Although PDH profit has improved significantly due to the weakening of propane, the current tense Sino - US trade relationship and strong market wait - and - see sentiment make it difficult to fully realize demand support. However, considering that the PG main contract has reached a new low and civil demand is gradually improving, the downward space is expected to be limited [3]. - **Propylene**: Demand is weakening, and it will run weakly in the short term. Next week, although the supply may shrink due to the expected maintenance of PDH devices, the demand will weaken as some PO and acrylic acid devices plan to stop for maintenance, so the upward momentum of prices is limited [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Part Price & Spread - **Domestic Spot and Basis**: There are significant differences in the price changes of civil gas in different regions. The prices of Shandong, East China, and South China have changed by - 100, 21, and - 50 yuan/ton respectively on a weekly basis. For other LPG and basis, the prices of Shandong ether - after, East China import, and South China import have also changed, and the basis of civil gas in different regions has also shown different trends [7]. - **Regional Quotations, Premiums, and Freight**: The freight from the US to the Far East has decreased, the FEI premium has weakened, and there is an arbitrage space [18]. - **Propane Price**: It has weakened significantly [28]. Supply - **International Shipment**: The US, Canada, Qatar, and other countries' LPG shipment volumes have different degrees of changes. For example, the US - China propane shipment volume (weekly) MA4 has decreased by 1 compared with the previous period [38]. - **Domestic Supply**: The total LPG commodity volume is 54.3 tons (+0.6%), of which the civil gas commodity volume is 21.8 tons (+1.0%), and the ether - after C4 commodity volume remains at a high level. The propane commodity volume has decreased, and the imported vessel arrivals have decreased by 6.7 tons [60][69]. Demand & Inventory - **Chemical Demand**: The operating rates of PDH and MTBE have decreased slightly [73]. - **Domestic Refinery Inventory**: The ether - after inventory is at a high level, and the civil gas is accumulating inventory. The inventory of LPG refineries in different regions has different trends, such as the inventory of civil gas refineries in Shandong has increased by 1.29% on a weekly basis [82]. - **Terminal Imported Cargo Inventory**: The inventory in East China and Shandong has decreased from a high level, while the inventory in South China has increased slightly [92]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - **Upstream Price**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and other upstream products have decreased to varying degrees on a weekly basis. For example, Brent has decreased by 4.97 US dollars/bbl, with a weekly average change of - 4.73% [103]. - **Propylene Price**: The international/US - dollar price has slightly corrected from a high level, and the domestic/Shandong market is relatively strong, while the East China price has declined, and the regional spread has widened [106][114]. - **Downstream Price/Profit**: The prices and profits of downstream products such as PP particles, PP powder, and PO have changed. For example, the price of PP particles has decreased by 63 yuan/ton on a weekly basis, and the profit has decreased by 53 yuan/ton [105]. Balance Sheet - **Supply**: In October 2025, the total domestic propylene supply is expected to be 550 tons, with a weighted operating rate of 80.5%, an increase of 7.64% compared with the previous month. The supply from different sources such as main refineries, local refineries, and PDH devices has different degrees of changes [127]. - **Demand**: In October 2025, the total domestic propylene demand is expected to be 544 tons, with a weighted operating rate of 79.5%, an increase of 5.95% compared with the previous month. The demand from downstream products such as polypropylene particles, polypropylene powder, and epoxy propane has different degrees of changes [128].

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor) [1] Core Views - The overall international oil prices declined around the National Day holiday. The subsequent market will focus on the pressure of loose supply - demand, and the strategy of combining high - level short positions in SC with out - of - the - money call options should be opportunistically and temporarily closed for profit [2] - The fuel oil market will follow the trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil will be affected by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil will face continuous pressure from loose supply - demand [3] - The supply - demand of asphalt remains in a tight balance. With the weakening of the cost side, asphalt is expected to be under limited pressure and its crack spread has upward potential [4] - The short - term LPG is under pressure due to the lack of positive support, and attention should be paid to the improvement of combustion demand after the temperature drops [5] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - International oil prices rebounded after OPEC+ did not significantly increase production as expected. The SC11 contract dropped 1.98% on the first trading day after the holiday. US crude oil inventories increased by 3715000 barrels last week, but the relatively strong refined oil apparent demand in the past four weeks supported the oil price [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market opened lower following the cost side. High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively resistant to decline due to geopolitical risks, but may face supply pressure in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has sufficient overseas supply, weak demand, and the pressure of loose supply - demand remains unchanged [3] Asphalt - The overall commercial inventory decreased compared with that before the holiday. The planned production in October increased by 350000 tons year - on - year and decreased by 400 tons month - on - month. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the asphalt is expected to be under limited pressure [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price of Saudi CP in October was much lower than expected, and the import cost decreased. The market sentiment is cautious, and the short - term LPG is under pressure [5]

Report Overview - The report is titled "Supply Abundant, Limited Imagination Space for Peak-season Demand - Outlook for LPG in the Fourth Quarter" and is published by Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute on September 30, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - In the fourth quarter, although it is the traditional combustion peak season, the supply and demand of domestic LPG and overseas propane are expected to remain relatively loose. With limited contradictions, there is little chance of a trending market. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on the domestic market when prices are high and to be bearish on the overseas FEI [86] Q3 Market Review External Market - In Q3, the external market price was weak first and then strong. The change in trade flow and cargo flow bottlenecks pushed the relative valuation of the Far East Inbound Price (FEI) to strengthen significantly in August. The trading opportunities in Q3 were mostly short - term band trading opportunities caused by valuation deviations and short - term contradictions on the spot side [2][8] - In July, the external market was weak due to weak fundamentals and poor spot sentiment. Propane demand was dragged down by the year - on - year weakness in the cracking end, and the international supply surplus continued. In August, the relative valuation of FEI strengthened, mainly supported by the increase in transportation costs due to trade flow changes and cargo flow bottlenecks. In September, the contradiction weakened [8] Domestic Market - In Q3, the domestic market contradictions were stronger than those in the external market. Under the weak spot expectation, the number of warehouse receipts reached a record high. In July, the domestic market fell smoothly under the pressure of weak fundamentals in the off - season. The spot price was mainly lowered, and the number of PG registered warehouse receipts reached a record high, putting obvious pressure on the market [9][15] LPG Fundamental Outlook for the Fourth Quarter Supply Side United States - The net production of C3 in the United States has remained at a stable high level in Q3, and the commissioning of the Frac XVI fractionation unit in Q4 is expected to further increase the regional production. The current C3 inventory is slightly higher than that of the same period last year, at a seasonally neutral to high level [19] - The export volume of the United States has been basically stable at about 5.8 million tons per month this year. Although the export capacity of the docks has increased, the export volume is affected by multiple factors such as the actual change in Northeast Asian demand, the progress of China - US tariff games, and the passage of the Panama Canal [25] - The factors affecting the passage of the Panama Canal include drought, passage rules, and economy. In Q4, the focus is on the potential impact of USTR and possible hurricanes in the US Gulf on capacity allocation and loading [26][38] - The congestion of the Panama Canal in August temporarily pushed up the FEI - MB spread. The impact of USTR on the LPG market is expected to be limited, as the proportion of Chinese - operated ships is relatively low, and the market hype about USTR is gradually subsiding [31][42] Middle East - The CP price was weak in Q3. In Q4, the export increment in the Middle East is expected to be limited. The potential increment comes from OPEC+ production increase, but the export volume usually decreases seasonally in Q4 due to strong local demand in winter and seasonal maintenance of production facilities [50] Demand Side Combustion Demand - India's LPG import volume increased by 7.4% year - on - year to 17 million tons from January to September this year. The strong demand is supported by factors such as the growth of domestic terminal consumption, the commissioning of infrastructure projects, and the commissioning of new PDH devices. The annual import growth rate is expected to be about 6% [51][58] Chemical Demand - The LPG import volume of domestic flexible cracking terminals has decreased significantly this year due to China - US tariffs. In Q3, LPG had certain feedstock economic advantages over naphtha, but the overall LPG consumption in Far East cracking was weaker than last year. In Q4, it is difficult for FEI - MOPJ to provide strong economic incentives for LPG cracking feedstock demand [66] - The PDH demand may have reached a phased peak in Q3. In Q4, the operating rate is expected to be difficult to increase, and the feedstock demand is unlikely to have an optimistic performance, especially considering the expiration of the current China - US tariff plan in November [72] China - The domestic refinery gas commodity volume is abundant. In Q4, the external release volume is expected to further increase. Considering the high inventory in East China, the spot price in East China is expected to continue to be under pressure, and the lowest deliverable product of domestic civil LPG in October is still likely to be anchored in the East China region [85]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - In Q4, both domestic and overseas supply of LPG remains resilient, while the demand side faces greater challenges [1] - The price range for Q4 is estimated to be between 3,800 - 4,600 yuan/ton [2] - Recommended strategies include range - trading for single - side operations, selling near - term contracts and buying far - term contracts at high prices for monthly spreads, and buying overseas and shorting domestic at low prices for the domestic - overseas spread [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - In Q3, the domestic LPG price showed a pattern of first falling and then rising, affected by the crude oil market and a large number of warehouse receipts. The main contract price dropped from 4,500 yuan/ton to 3,770 yuan/ton, and the overseas CP contract price dropped from $600/ton in June to $520/ton in September [4][5] - From April to September this year, the domestic PG warehouse receipt volume was continuously at a seasonal high. Near - month prices were suppressed, the basis was mostly at a seasonal high, and the monthly spread was in a contango pattern, with the 9 - 10 spread reaching a minimum of about - 720 yuan/ton [8] - In Q3, the overseas price relationship was CP>FEI>MB. The MB price was relatively weak, the CP - FEI spread narrowed, and the FEI - MB spread widened [9] Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Supply Still Has Resilience - **Middle East**: OPEC+ has been gradually increasing production since May, but the export increment is not obvious. From January to August, the total LPG export was 32,252 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.60%. It is expected that the monthly average export volume in Q4 will be around 3,800 - 3,900 KT, similar to that of last year's Q4 [11][12] - **United States**: In Q3, the US C3 production remained high, with an average of 2.85 million barrels/day. From January to August, the total LPG export was 45,455 KT, with a year - on - year increase of 3.62%. It is expected that the Q4 export volume will remain high, with an estimated C3 production of 2.8 million barrels/day [16] 3.2 Asian Demand Faces Challenges - **India**: From January to August, the total LPG import was 14,947 KT, with a year - on - year increase of 7.08%. In Q4, the import volume will remain high but the incremental growth will not be significant, expected to be around 2 - 2.1 million tons/month [21][23] - **South Korea and Japan**: South Korea's LPG import volume is expected to remain high in Q4, supported by seasonal demand and chemical demand. Japan's LPG production has been decreasing year by year, and the demand is highly dependent on imports. There will be a seasonal increase in Q4 [25][28] - **China**: The PDH industry is in an expansion cycle. As of now, PDH has suffered losses, and there is a risk of a decline in chemical demand in Q4. The C4 demand and MTBE demand are also expected to decline seasonally [31][34] 3.3 Freight Rates Expected to Fluctuate at a High Level - Since the Sino - US trade friction in April, the freight rate from the US Gulf to the Far East has been rising. In Q4, the freight rate is expected to remain at a high level due to the resilient US export and the number of ships detouring the Cape of Good Hope remaining higher than in previous years [39] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Valuation Feedback - **Gas - oil ratio**: It is relatively neutral to high and may continue to rise if crude oil production increases in Q4 [44] - **PN spread**: It is relatively neutral to low and is expected to remain low in Q4 [46] - **PDH profit**: It is currently in a loss state and is expected to remain low in Q4 [48] 4.2 Overseas Supply - Demand Outlook - Supply will remain resilient in Q4, while demand in the Asian market has limited growth, mainly from seasonal factors. Chemical demand may be suppressed by profit decline [50] 4.3 Domestic Supply - Demand Outlook - **Supply**: Domestic LPG production is expected to remain at a high level in Q4, but the import volume may be affected by PDH profit and maintenance [51][54] - **Demand**: Chemical demand will decline in Q4, while the increase in combustion demand will not be significant as this winter is likely to be a warm winter [55]

Report Scope and Title - The report is a weekly LPG report titled "Geopolitical Conflicts Heat Up Again, Cost drives LPG Higher", dated September 28, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Report Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions have flared up again, and in the short term, cost will drive LPG to strengthen to a certain extent [6] - OPEC+ is further increasing crude oil production. Although geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, the US and Iran, and the US and Russia may offset the increase to some extent, it does not change the fact that LPG supply remains abundant [6] - On the demand side, the peak season for the blending market is coming to an end, and it will be difficult to maintain high operating rates, so chemical demand may weaken [6] - PDH profits have significantly recovered, and subsequent operating rates may be supported [6] - Overall, LPG supply is very abundant. CP prices may be affected by peak - season stockpiling and strengthen periodically in the short term, but will follow oil prices in the long term. With high supply and the expectation that demand is unlikely to strengthen beyond expectations, the upside for LPG is limited, and a bearish view is maintained in the long term [6] Summary by Related Catalogs PART 01: LPG Market Review - Propane CP expected average price is $544/ton, down $4/ton from the previous period, a 0.73% month - on - month decrease; butane CP expected average price is $524/ton, down $4/ton from the previous period, a 0.76% month - on - month decrease [5] - Propane CFR South China average price is $587/ton, down $7/ton from the previous period, a 1.18% month - on - month decrease; butane CFR South China average price is $567/ton, down $7/ton from the previous period, a 1.22% month - on - month decrease [5] - Domestic LPG supply has increased slightly. This period's LPG commercial volume is 539,200 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous period, a 0.13% increase [5] - Domestic LPG market demand is expected to increase. With the National Day holiday approaching, downstream still has restocking needs before the holiday, and the holiday will boost combustion consumption. In the chemical field, there are plans to start up plants for olefin and alkane deep - processing, including one alkylation unit and three PDH units, and the demand for ether - after C4 and propane is expected to increase [5] PART 02: LPG Fundamentals LPG Supply - Domestic - Data on the operating rates of major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, comprehensive refining profits of major refineries, and LPG commercial volume in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [11][12] LPG Supply - Import - Data on LPG arrivals in China, import trade margins in the South China region, total monthly LPG imports in China, and LPG imports from different countries from 2021 - 2025 are presented [14][15][16] LPG Inventory - Data on LPG port inventory, refinery capacity utilization ratio, port capacity utilization ratio, factory - level inventory, and sales - to - production ratios in different regions in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [22][23][25] LPG Downstream Industry - Data on PDH unit operating rates, PDH production margins, MTBE isomerization etherification production margins, MTBE export factory capacity utilization rates, alkylation oil capacity utilization rates, and alkylation oil production margins in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [27][29][31] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data Import Cost: CP Forward and Current - Month Prices - Data on propane and butane CP contract prices, CP crude oil price trends, and propane spot prices in South China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [35][36] Spot: Domestic Refinery Civil Gas Prices and Import Premiums - Data on the ex - factory prices of civil LPG at Guangzhou Petrochemical, Jinan Refinery, and Shanghai Gaoqiao from 2021 - 2025 are presented [38][39][40] PART 04: LPG Other Data - Data on LPG main contract basis, the price difference between the first - and second - month contracts, and registered warehouse receipts at major delivery warehouses from 2021 - 2025 are presented [43][45] Key Strategy Recommendation - Futures strategy: Try shorting at high prices [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [4] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability in the market) [4] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [4] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (indicating a relatively balanced short-term bullish/bearish trend, with poor market operability and suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [4] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors are having a significant impact on the energy market, and the key window period for geopolitical games may occur around the National Day holidays, affecting the supply and price trends of various energy products [2] - For different energy products, their price trends are affected by a combination of geopolitical factors, supply and demand conditions, and seasonal factors, with each having its own characteristics and short - to medium - term outlooks [2][3] Summary by Categories Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded sharply, with the SC11 contract rising 1.72% during the day. There are potential impacts on oil prices from the geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - nuclear issues. The short - term upward risk of oil prices remains, and hedging short positions in crude oil - related futures should be combined with call options [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market continued to rise, driven by geopolitical factors affecting the cost side and supply tightening expectations. However, in the medium term, with the arrival of the off - season and supply easing, a bearish view is maintained. The current supply - demand contradiction of low - sulfur fuel oil is not prominent, and its price is still suppressed, but the overall fuel oil market may be affected by the development of the geopolitical situation [2] Asphalt - The terminal in the northern region has pre - holiday rush - work demand, while the typhoon affects the demand in the southern region. The inventory has slightly accumulated, and the supply - demand tight - balance pattern continues, providing support for the price of asphalt [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG oscillated strongly at a low level today. The supply decreased due to factors such as increased refinery self - use and the impact of typhoons on imports. With the arrival of the gas consumption peak season, the overall consumption is expected to increase, and the bottom of the LPG price may have emerged [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including finance, commodities, and shipping, providing insights into market trends, news events, and investment suggestions for different assets [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, significantly above expectations. The US and EU finalized a 15% tariff agreement, leading to a gold price correction of over 1% and a strong rise in the US dollar index [12][13] - Short - term gold prices face a correction risk due to profit - taking, and investors are advised to reduce positions before the holiday [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Intel is seeking investment and cooperation from Apple, and the US has officially lowered tariffs on EU cars. Fed official Daly's remarks indicate uncertainty in future interest rate cuts [15][16][17] - While there may be short - term disturbances due to valuation concerns, an overall bullish approach is recommended [18] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's president met with the US Treasury Secretary, and the UK central bank has internal policy differences. The US has reduced tariffs on EU cars to 15%, and the US dollar is expected to trade in a short - term range [20][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Eight departments jointly issued a document to promote digital consumption, and Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure. The STAR Market has strengthened, driving the broader market up. The current market is rising on low volume, and investors are advised to take partial profits [22][23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation and a 401.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market has declined due to tightened liquidity and rising stock markets. A strategy of holding a steepening curve is recommended [25][26][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market anticipates that the USDA's weekly export sales report will show a net increase of 60 - 160 tons in US soybean exports. China is rumored to continue purchasing Argentine soybeans, and ANEC has lowered Brazil's September soybean export forecast [29] - The bearish impact of Argentina's export tax exemption may be fully reflected in the price, and the price is expected to trade in a range. Continued attention should be paid to policy changes [29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's July palm oil exports decreased, and production and inventory increased. The oil market rebounded slightly, but the short - term rebound space is limited. Investors are advised to wait and see or take small long positions [30][31] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Japanese carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils. Global crude steel production in August increased slightly year - on - year. Steel prices have rebounded, but the upward space is restricted by fundamentals. A range - bound approach is recommended before the holiday, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand [32][33][35] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch production rate has increased, and inventory has decreased. The current inventory pressure is manageable, and the price difference between rice and flour may be undervalued. Buying to widen the spread may have a safety margin [36][37] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn inventory at the four northern ports has decreased. The price of the 11 - contract has rebounded, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. The 11 - contract is expected to decline more than the 01 - contract after the holiday [37][38] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at northern ports has remained stable. After the pre - holiday restocking, the coal price is expected to trade in a range around the long - term agreement price [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - Some jujubes in Xinjiang are starting to wrinkle, and there are still some green fruits. The futures price is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the development of jujubes in the production area and the purchasing situation in the sales area [40][41] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - SNIM plans to increase iron ore production by 2031 and has discovered new resources. The terminal finished product inventory has some pressure, but the raw material side is strong. The iron ore price is expected to be well - supported, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and inventory [43] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Orient Hope is conducting maintenance on its polysilicon production line. The polysilicon price is expected to be stable in October. The short - term futures price is expected to trade in a wide range between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [44][48] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's August import and export data of primary polysiloxane showed mixed trends. The price of industrial silicon is expected to trade between 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but chasing the price up should be done with caution [49][50] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The global copper market had a supply surplus of 101,000 tons from January to July. Grasberg copper mine's accident will lead to a significant production loss, and the copper price is expected to rise in the short term. A short - term long strategy is recommended [51][54][55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Trump administration is seeking to acquire up to 10% of Lithium Americas. The short - term price may be supported by pre - holiday restocking, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. A short - term cautious approach and a medium - term short - selling strategy are recommended [56][57] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has suspended 190 mining enterprises, including 39 nickel mines. The nickel price lacks upward momentum, but it has long - term investment value. A positive spread arbitrage opportunity is recommended [58][59] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market is in a deep contango. The domestic lead market is expected to trade in a bullish range. A strategy of buying on dips and a positive spread arbitrage strategy are recommended [60][61] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market has a high cash concentration, and the domestic zinc market is under pressure from the exchange rate. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and a positive spread arbitrage strategy is recommended [61][62] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China has declined. The price is expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term [63][66][67] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased, and a Russian refinery was attacked. The oil price is expected to be affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term [68][69][70] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The terminal demand for PX has improved structurally, but the PX market is expected to trade in a weak range in the short term [71][73][74] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA market has seen a partial increase in sales, but the short - term outlook is weak. The price is expected to trade in a weak range [75][76][77] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea inventory has increased. The supply pressure is rising, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the export situation and the price range of the 2601 contract [78][79] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has declined locally. The market is expected to be stable, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [80][81][82] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is stable. The market is expected to trade in a weak range due to poor fundamentals [83][84][85] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price is oscillating in a narrow range. The fundamentals are weak, but the low price limits the downward space. Attention should be paid to domestic policy support [86] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export price has increased slightly. The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and attention should be paid to production cuts and new capacity [90][91] 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market price is stable. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [92][93] 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass market price in Shandong is stable. The futures price has risen due to policy expectations, but the fundamental pressure may limit the upward space. A long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy is recommended [94] 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The China - Europe Railway Express has resumed operation. The container freight rate futures market is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see or short - selling strategy for the October contract is recommended [95][96]

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend and poor trading opportunities, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend and poor trading opportunities, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] Core Views - The medium-term bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, with expected price drops for Brent and SC crude. However, geopolitical risks around the Iran nuclear negotiation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict may still intensify around the National Day holiday, so the strategy of combining high-level short positions with call options can be maintained [1]. - Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil will mainly follow the weakening cost side due to the unchanged medium-term bearish trend in crude oil. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure, while high-sulfur fuel oil may be relatively stronger and is susceptible to geopolitical news [2]. - The asphalt market maintains a tight supply-demand balance, with the BU contract having support below due to factors such as increased pre-holiday demand in the north, expected production increases, and inventory declines [2]. - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with marginal improvements in supply and demand and expected better import costs [3]. Summary by Industry Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the SC11 contract rising 1.94% during the day. Iraqi Kurdish oil exports remain suspended, and there are discussions about a possible Russian diesel export ban. Negotiations between three European countries and Iran to avoid UN sanctions on September 27 have no clear progress [1]. - The medium-term bearish trend continues, with the expected average price of Brent crude dropping from $68 per barrel in Q3 to $63 per barrel, and the SC average price falling from 500 yuan per barrel to around 465 yuan per barrel [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors affect supply expectations, causing a rebound in crude oil-related products. However, the unilateral trend of fuel oil will follow the weakening cost side [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil faces low加注 demand, increased domestic quotas, and overseas refinery RFCC accidents, intensifying supply pressure. High-sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to be loose in the medium term, but Russian refinery attacks may support supply expectations and make it relatively stronger [2]. Asphalt - The latest weekly shipment volume increased significantly compared to the previous period. The north has pre-holiday construction demand, while the south is affected by typhoon weather. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm [2]. - The initial production plans of refineries in October show a significant year-on-year increase but limited month-on-month growth. Factory inventories remain stable, and social inventories decreased by 57,000 tons, with the overall inventory level decreasing [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Crude oil rebounded, and LPG fluctuated. Refinery self-use of LPG increased, squeezing external supply, leading to a decline in commercial volume compared to last week [3]. - Typhoon weather in the South China region affects imports, while the import volume in East China increased but remains at a low level. Combustion demand is stable, and overall consumption increased slightly [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly indicated in the given content - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct long - term trend with appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly indicated in the given content - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct long - term trend with appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct long - term trend with appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Views - The medium - term bearish trend of crude oil prices remains unchanged, with limited upside potential for short - term rebounds due to geopolitical factors. A strategy combination of high - level short positions and call options is recommended [2] - For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, the high - low sulfur spread has limited further compression space, and a strategy of expanding the high - low sulfur spread on dips is recommended [3] - The bottom support for asphalt futures prices still exists, with the futures continuing the range - bound trend and the spot price decline pressure in East China alleviated [4] - The short - term LPG price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong, with good bottom support at the spot end, and attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking market [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC11 contract dropping 1.6% during the day. Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 9.285 million barrels due to a significant increase in exports, while the increase in middle - distillate product inventories raised market concerns about demand. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut did not bring more than expected positive effects [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, fuel - related futures followed the decline of crude oil. Since Russian refineries were frequently attacked, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline. The continuous increase in the operating rate of Shandong refineries is beneficial to the feedstock demand for fuel oil, and the incremental ship - fuel consumption in the Singapore market is also concentrated in the high - sulfur ship - fuel field [3] - The third batch of low - sulfur fuel oil export quotas in 2025 is only 700,000 tons, lower than the 1 million tons in the third batch last year. Cumulatively, the low - sulfur export quotas in 2025 have increased by 900,000 tons year - on - year. However, considering the still - low quota utilization rate, the low - sulfur supply pressure is limited [3] Asphalt - Today, crude oil declined, while asphalt futures continued the range - bound trend. Today's data showed that factory and social inventories continued to decline, with the decline slowing down compared to the beginning of the week. The warehouse receipts in East China warehouses decreased by 350 tons today, and a total of 3,050 tons have been reduced so far this week. The downward pressure on the spot price in East China has been alleviated, and the spot prices in South China and Hebei remained stable [4] LPG - The overseas market remains strong. Under the circumstances of strong import demand and rising geopolitical risks, the overall sentiment is positive. In South China, the impact of typhoons has reduced imported goods. At the same time, the chemical industry's profit margin remains good, and the high - operating - rate pattern can still be maintained. The short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong [5]