Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Industry Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The international oil price is expected to oscillate in the short - term but face continuous oversupply pressure in the medium - term. For oil, it is advisable to try short - selling on rebounds. [7][8] - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand and a narrowing basis after the decline. [35] - The PTA market is expected to rise slightly, and the ethylene glycol market is expected to continue a slight rebound. [62] - The price of polyester staple fiber may rise slightly, with cost support and weak supply - demand factors. [71] - The soda ash market is expected to see the futures price drop to near the recent low, and it is advisable to short - sell on rallies if it breaks through the 1200 yuan/ton resistance level. [79] - The industrial silicon futures price will continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but there is strong resistance above. [101] - The polysilicon futures price will oscillate in a wide range, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the range and wait for policy signals for breakthrough opportunities. [123] - The pulp market will have a limited short - term rebound and is advisable for reverse arbitrage. [140] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: International oil prices oscillated this week with a narrowing amplitude. The market lacks short - term drivers and is expected to oscillate. Medium - term oversupply pressure persists. Operationally, try short - selling on rebounds. [7][8] - **Fundamental Changes**: US crude inventories increased, refinery inputs rose seasonally, and refined product inventories decreased. OPEC+ will stop increasing production in Q1 2026, but it's hard to reverse the oversupply. Supply growth far exceeds demand growth, and the inventory accumulation rate is accelerating. [9][10][11] Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The cost end (crude oil) lacks support. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the basis has narrowed after the decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [34][35] - **Fundamental Changes**: The cost end has mid - term oversupply pressure. The asphalt production capacity may increase slightly next week. Demand shows regional differentiation, with weak speculative demand. Factory and social inventories both decreased this week. [36][37][39] Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Crude oil fundamentals are mixed, and PX is expected to oscillate strongly, supporting PTA costs. PTA is expected to rise slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to rebound slightly. [61][62] - **Main Driving Forces**: Downstream consumption is stable in the short - term but has a weakening expectation. PTA supply may decrease, and its fundamentals are strong. Ethylene glycol has cost support and a rebound demand. [63][64][66] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The cost end supports the market, but supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. The price may rise slightly. [71] - **Main Driving Forces**: Downstream consumption support is limited. The short - fiber industry's operation is stable, and supply is sufficient. Cost support is strong, but supply - demand factors drag down the price. [72][73][74] Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The futures price oscillated weakly this week, with supply remaining high, demand weakening, and inventory slightly increasing. It is expected to drop further, and it is advisable to short - sell on rallies if it breaks through 1200 yuan/ton. [76][78][79] - **Market Conditions**: Supply is stable with a slight decline in production. Inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. Spot prices are expected to oscillate narrowly. Glass demand for soda ash is weakening, and exports decreased in September. [80][83][93] Industrial Silicon - **Futures Review and Outlook**: The futures price has been oscillating strongly recently. The main driving force is the seasonal production reduction in the southwest, but the supply - demand imbalance improvement is limited. The price may continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term with strong upper resistance. [101] - **Fundamental Overview**: The price of industrial silicon and its related products is stable. Inventory is slowly accumulating, and production is decreasing. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and other products is relatively stable. [102][103][105] Polysilicon - **Market Review and Outlook**: The price is weaker than other varieties this week. The supply - demand improvement drive is limited. The price will continue to be in a stalemate in the short - term and oscillate in a wide range. It is advisable to buy on dips in the range and wait for policy signals for breakthrough opportunities. [123] - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamentals**: The prices of main products in the industry are stable. Inventory has increased slightly. Production in the supply - end may decline in November, mid - stream demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. [124][125][126] Pulp - **Market Review and Outlook**: The futures price rebounded this week. Macro pressure has weakened, imports have decreased, and inventory has declined, but the industry profit improvement is limited. The short - term rebound space is limited, and reverse arbitrage is advisable. [139][140] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries in August increased. China's pulp imports decreased in October. Global and domestic pulp inventories have different trends. Downstream paper performance is still differentiated. [141][149][156]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for 2026 Russian needles, and the futures market may be priced based on Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp; maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy [11] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 6, 2025, SP2601 was 5368 with a daily increase of 0.15% and a weekly increase of 2.76%; SP2511 was 4880 with a daily decrease of 0.12% and a weekly increase of 0.91%; SP2605 was 5384 with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly increase of 2.28% [6] - **Spot Prices**: On November 6, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500 with no daily or weekly change; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 with no daily or weekly change; the price of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no daily or weekly change [6] - **Foreign Quotes and Import Costs**: The foreign quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars (down 2.86% month - on - month), and its import cost was 5559 (down 2.83% month - on - month); the foreign quote of Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars (up 3.92% month - on - month), and its import cost was 4344 (up 3.87% month - on - month); the foreign quote of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars with no month - on - month change, and its import cost was 4830 with no month - on - month change [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons (up 12.54% month - on - month), and that of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons (up 7.79% month - on - month). The domestic production of hardwood pulp on November 6, 2025, was 25 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.5 tons. The pulp shipment volume to China was 162, up 4.50% [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 200.8 tons (a decrease of 5.3 tons from the previous period, a 2.6% decrease), and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 tons [6][11] - **Demand**: The production of offset paper was 20.80 tons, coated paper was 8.50 tons, tissue paper was 28.36 tons, and white board paper was 35.70 tons on November 6, 2025. White board paper showed an obvious increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper had frequent price increase letters, but overall demand was still weak [6][11] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 6, 2025, the Russian needle basis was 220 with a quantile level of 0.904; the Silver Star basis was 620 with a quantile level of 0.871 [6] - **Import Profit**: On November 6, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.557 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp futures. The futures price may be priced based on the price of Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. Maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy [10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On November 5, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2605 were 5360, 4886, and 5374 respectively, with day - on - day increases of 1.36%, 0.29%, and 1.09% and week - on - week increases of 2.25%, 1.20%, and 1.86% respectively. The spot prices of softwood pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and hardwood pulp Goldfish were 5500, 5100, and 4250 respectively, with no day - on - day or week - on - week changes [5] Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 680, 530, and 590 US dollars respectively. The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.86% month - on - month, while that of Brazilian Goldfish increased by 3.92%. The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5559, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish increasing by 3.87% month - on - month [5] Supply - Side Data - In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a 12.54% increase from August, and the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a 7.79% increase from August. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 increased by 4.50% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed little change in the period from September 4 to October 30, 2025 [5] Inventory Data - As of October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, showing a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend. The futures delivery warehouse inventory decreased slightly during the period from September 4 to October 30, 2025 [5][10] Demand - Side Data - The production of finished paper such as double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed little change from September 4 to October 30, 2025. White cardboard showed a significant increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper has issued frequent price increase letters, but whether the price increase can be implemented remains to be observed, and overall demand is still weak [5][10] Valuation Data - On November 5, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle pulp was 214 with a quantile level of 0.902, and the basis of Silver Star pulp was 614 with a quantile level of 0.868. The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513, and that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.557 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for SP2601, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained. [6][11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - On November 3, 2025, among the futures prices, SP2601 was 5306 with a daily increase of 1.80% and a weekly increase of 0.91%; SP2511 was 4890 with a daily increase of 1.07% and a weekly increase of 0.78%; SP2605 was 5346 with a daily increase of 1.63% and a weekly increase of 0.91%. [6] - Among the spot prices, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, Russian softwood pulp was 5100, and hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, all with no daily or weekly changes. [6] - In the foreign market quotes (in dollars), the price of Chilean Silver Star was 680, down 2.86% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 530, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590, unchanged month - on - month. [6] - In terms of import costs, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month. [6] Fundamental Data - In terms of imports, in September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.10 million tons, up 12.54% month - on - month, and that of hardwood pulp was 135.60 million tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 million tons, up 4.50% month - on - month. [6] - Regarding domestic production, on October 30, 2025, the domestic production of hardwood pulp was 23.7 million tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.5 million tons. [6] - For inventory, on October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 million tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 million tons. [6] - In terms of demand, on October 30, 2025, the production volume of offset paper was 20.60 million tons, coated paper was 8.60 million tons, tissue paper was 28.39 million tons, and white cardboard was 36.10 million tons. [6] Valuation Data - On November 3, 2025, the basis of Russian softwood pulp was 210 with a quantile level of 0.9, and the basis of Silver Star was 610 with a quantile level of 0.866. [6] - The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.512, and that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.557. [6] Supply - demand - inventory Situation - Supply: Chilean Arauco Company's softwood pulp Silver Star price in October was 680 dollars per ton, down 20 dollars per ton; hardwood pulp Star was 540 dollars per ton, unchanged; and chemimechanical pulp Venus was 590 dollars per ton, unchanged. [6][11] - Demand: White cardboard showed a significant increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper has issued frequent price increase letters, but it remains to be seen whether the price increases can be implemented. Overall demand is still weak. [11] - Inventory: As of October 30, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 206.1 million tons, a narrow - range inventory accumulation compared with the previous period. [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The supply of pulp is relatively loose, with the import quotes showing a decrease in softwood pulp and an increase in hardwood pulp. The domestic pulp production in October 2025 was 208.4 million tons, a 10.2% increase from the previous month [4]. - The demand is weak. Except for white cardboard, the production and prices of other wood - pulp papers have not risen significantly. Paper mills maintain just - in - time replenishment, which does not boost the pulp price [4]. - The inventory has a narrow - range accumulation trend. As of October 30, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 206.1 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period [4]. - The investment view is to adopt a 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage strategy for pulp futures. The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force and the pressure of old warehouse receipts is high, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The import quotes from Chile's Arauco in October showed a decline in softwood pulp and an increase in hardwood pulp. The domestic pulp production in October 2025 was 208.4 million tons, a 10.2% month - on - month increase, indicating a relatively loose supply [4]. - **Demand**: Except for white cardboard, other wood - pulp papers' production and prices did not rise significantly. Paper mills maintained just - in - time replenishment, having no positive impact on the pulp price [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 206.1 million tons, a 0.6 - million - ton increase from the previous period and a 0.3% month - on - month increase, showing a narrow - range accumulation trend [4]. - **Investment View**: A 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage strategy is recommended for pulp futures. The pulp futures are at an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force and high pressure from old warehouse receipts, so it is advisable to wait and see. The risk to focus on is the de - stocking of pulp warehouse receipts [4]. 2. Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Market Trend**: Pulp prices fluctuated at a low level this week. The fundamentals remained stable, and some spot price bases increased slightly. The problem of old warehouse receipts was not resolved, suppressing the near - month contract prices. The 01 contract was close to the cost of Canadian softwood pulp warehouse receipts, with limited upward space [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week and down 100 yuan/ton from the previous month. The price of softwood pulp Buzhen was 4,880 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous week and down 50 yuan/ton from the previous month. The price of hardwood pulp Jinyu was 4,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week and the previous month [16]. - **External Quotes**: In October, the price of hardwood pulp increased, while the external quotes of softwood pulp decreased. Chile's Arauco quoted 680 US dollars/ton for softwood pulp Silver Star, 540 US dollars/ton for hardwood pulp Star, and 590 US dollars/ton for natural pulp Venus [19]. - **Open Interest**: As of October 31, 2025, the total open interest of pulp futures contracts was 325,633, a 7.73% decrease from the previous week. The open interest of the main pulp futures contract was 155,284 lots, a 1.97% decrease from the previous week [24]. 3. Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In September, the import volume of pulp and wood chips increased. The total pulp import volume was 2.952 billion tons, a 11.27% increase. The softwood pulp import volume was 691 million tons, a 12.54% increase, and the hardwood pulp import volume was 1.356 billion tons, a 7.79% increase [5]. - **Inventory**: The pulp port inventory slightly decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts was stable. Overseas, the inventory of softwood pulp mills increased, while that of hardwood pulp mills remained stable. As of the end of August, the inventory of commodity pulp suppliers in 20 countries was 48 days, with 52 days for bleached softwood pulp and 46 days for bleached hardwood pulp [35][40]. - **Downstream Demand**: The price of white cardboard increased, while other paper types remained stable. In September 2025, the production of double - offset paper was 729 million tons, a 0.7% month - on - month increase; copperplate paper was 385 million tons, a 2.7% month - on - month increase; tissue paper was 840 million tons, a 14.8% month - on - month increase; and white cardboard was 984 million tons, a 2.8% month - on - month increase. The inventory of white cardboard decreased, while other paper types remained stable [41][48]. 4. Pulp Futures Valuation - **Basis and Spread**: As of October 31, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian softwood pulp was - 332 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis of Shandong Silver Star was 308 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous week. The 11 - 1 spread of pulp was - 374 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [82]. - **Import Profit**: As of October 31, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp was 3.58 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The import profit of hardwood pulp was 35 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous week [87].

Group 1: Report Summary - The investment strategy is to maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy as the pulp fundamentals have no significant improvement, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for 2026 Russian needles, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp [11] Group 2: Price Data Futures Prices - On October 31, 2025, the price of SP2601 was 5212, with a daily decrease of 0.23% and a weekly decrease of 0.53%; SP2511 was 4838, with a daily decrease of 0.17% and a weekly decrease of 0.49%; SP2605 was 5260, with a daily decrease of 0.08% and a weekly decrease of 0.34% [6] Spot Prices - On October 31, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, unchanged; Russian Needle was 5100, unchanged; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, unchanged [6] Outer - Disk Quotes - In October 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.86% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6] Import Costs - In October 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, a decrease of 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, an increase of 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6] Group 3: Fundamental Data Supply - In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%; hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79% [6] - The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [6] Production - From September 4 to October 30, 2025, the domestic production of hardwood pulp fluctuated between 20.7 - 23.8 tons, and chemimechanical pulp between 20.9 - 23.6 tons [6] Inventory - As of October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 tons, a slight increase compared to the previous period, showing a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend [6][11] - From September 4 to October 30, 2025, the futures delivery warehouse inventory fluctuated between 22.4 - 24.7 tons [6] Demand - From September 4 to October 30, 2025, the production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated, with white cardboard showing an obvious increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper having frequent price increase letters but uncertain implementation, and overall demand remaining weak [6][11] Group 4: Valuation Data Basis - On October 31, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 262, with a quantile level of 0.913; Silver Star was 662, with a quantile level of 0.888 [6] Import Profit - On October 31, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59, with a quantile level of 0.512; hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.557 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in foreign investment in Brazil's strategic sectors, particularly in natural resources and infrastructure [1] - Foreign investments are primarily concentrated in energy, mining, agriculture, and pulp industries [1] - Brazil faces challenges in advanced industrial competition, particularly in semiconductors and electric vehicles [1] Group 2 - The main driver of Brazil's economic growth in recent years has been population growth rather than productivity improvement [1] - Brazil has been undergoing a "de-industrialization" process, lagging behind larger and more competitive countries like the United States and China [1] - McKinsey suggests that Brazil should increase investments in technology and artificial intelligence to drive productivity leaps [1] Group 3 - Tax reform and regulatory improvements could help Brazil attract more foreign investment [1] - Brazil needs to address issues related to public debt sustainability and security to further enhance its business environment [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp fundamentals have not significantly improved, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp contract, and the futures price may be priced according to the price of Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 30, 2025, SP2601 was 5224, down 0.34% day - on - day and 0.50% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4846, up 0.21% day - on - day and down 0.16% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5264, down 0.23% day - on - day and 0.49% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian needle pulp was 5100, unchanged; and hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, unchanged [6]. - **Foreign Quotes**: The quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars, down 2.86% month - on - month; the quote of a certain product type was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; and the quote of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% month - on - month; and the import cost of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [6]. 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month, and the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, up 4.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 tons, up 0.3% month - on - month, showing a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend [11]. - **Demand**: The current demand for paper products is basically stable, and paper prices have not rebounded significantly. The positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [11]. 3. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 30, 2025, the Russian needle pulp basis was 254, with a quantile level of 0.912; the Silver Star basis was 654, with a quantile level of 0.881 [6]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59, with a quantile level of 0.512; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.556 [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weak oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Range operation [6] - Palm oil: Range operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range operation [6] - Soybean meal: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [8] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Report's Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and black prices are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, and the coal and coke market is affected by policies and supply concerns. The steel market's price stop depends on production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market has inventory pressure and weak demand. The financial market has different trends for various indexes, and the precious metal market is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases and geopolitical risks. The light industry and agricultural product markets have their own supply and demand characteristics, and the soft commodity and polyester markets also face different situations [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The main line is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation." The supply has room for impulse, and the demand is weak due to the low level of real estate new construction. Follow-up attention should be paid to four main lines that may trigger price revaluation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Driven by multiple news, the price has risen. The market is concerned about demand-side policies, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit level of steel mills [2] - Rolled steel: The price is affected by the demand for steel, and the stop of the decline depends on production cuts and policy implementation [2] - Glass: There are contradictions in the market, with weak demand and increasing inventory pressure. The solution depends on reducing the daily melting volume and the support of policies [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: Different indexes have different trends, and the market is short-term consolidated with increasing bullish sentiment [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market has a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [4] Light Industry - Logs: The supply is increasing seasonally, while the demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Pulp: The cost support is weakening, and the demand is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: There is supply pressure, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oil and Fat - Oils: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The overall is expected to continue range operation [6] - Meal: Supported by trade optimism and the rise of US soybean futures, it is expected to rebound in the short term [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The trading average weight may increase slightly, and the settlement price may rise. The market is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [8] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is improving. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [10] - PX: The trade dispute risk is weakening, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost support is weakened, and the supply and demand are marginally improved. The price follows the cost [10] - MEG: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is worrying. The price is suppressed by the inventory pressure [10] - PR: The market may oscillate weakly [10] - PF: The market may be sorted narrowly [10]