Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market shows a situation of increasing supply volume and decreasing price on the supply - side, weak support from the demand - side, and a de - stocking trend in inventory. The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely between 5100 - 5400 [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 1, 2025, SP2601 was 5416 with a daily decrease of 2.80% and a weekly decrease of 0.11%; SP2605 was 5364 with a daily decrease of 0.48% and a weekly increase of 0.22%; SP2509 was 5186 with a daily decrease of 0.88% and a weekly decrease of 6.05% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On August 1, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged daily and down 1.18% weekly; Russian coniferous pulp was 5300, unchanged daily and down 3.64% weekly; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4120, unchanged daily and down 0.72% weekly [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs**: In terms of outer - disk quotes (in dollars), Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 500, down 10.71% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged month - on - month. In terms of import costs, Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.09%. The shipment volume of pulp to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed certain fluctuations. Chilean Arauco announced new July wood pulp outer - disk quotes, with an increase in supply volume and a decrease in price [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 210.5 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%, showing a de - stocking trend [2]. - **Demand**: This week, the output of major finished paper decreased slightly, and the price of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [2]. Pulp Valuation Data - On August 1, 2025, the Russian needle basis was 114 with a quantile level of 0.858; the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34 with a quantile level of 0.545 [1]. Strategy This week, pulp futures returned to fundamental pricing and are expected to fluctuate widely between 5100 - 5400 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Pulp supply is increasing while prices are decreasing, with the Arauco company's new July wood pulp offers showing certain trends and the May shipment volume to China increasing by 3.3% [1] - The demand side shows a slight decline in the output of major finished paper products this week, and the low prices of finished paper provide weak support for pulp [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China is 210.5 tons, showing a destocking trend with a 1.8% month - on - month decrease [1][2] - Pulp futures are greatly affected by the macro - environment, and this week's commodity sentiment is expected to be volatile, with prices expected to fluctuate widely between 5200 and 5500 [2] Summary by Directory Price Data - On July 31, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2509 decreased by 1.45% and 1.76% respectively compared to the previous day, while SP2605 increased by 0.86% [1] - The spot prices of coniferous pulp such as Russian needle and broad - leaf pulp such as Goldfish decreased by 2.21% and 0.72% respectively [1] - The foreign market quotations of Chilean Silver Star and Chilean Star decreased by 2.70% and 10.71% respectively, and the import costs decreased by 2.68% and 10.60% respectively [1] Fundamental Data - In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, a 6.09% decrease compared to May [1] - The shipment volume of pulp to China in May increased by 3.3% compared to April [1] - The output of finished paper products such as offset paper, coated paper, toilet paper, and white cardboard decreased slightly this week [1] Valuation Data - On July 31, 2025, the basis of Russian needle pulp was 0.825, and the basis of Silver Star pulp was 0.889 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34, and that of broad - leaf pulp Golden was 19 [1] Inventory Data - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 210.5 tons, a 1.8% decrease compared to the previous period [1][2] Strategy - Pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely between 5200 and 5500 this week [2]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures 09 contract decreased by 2.50%, and the downstream paper manufacturers are under pressure in production and sales due to the off - season atmosphere. The pulp price is under pressure and declines affected by the commodity market atmosphere [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The pre - settlement price of the pulp futures 09 contract was 5366 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5232 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.50%. The 01 contract decreased by 1.95%, and the 05 contract decreased by 1.01% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of coniferous pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5230 - 6700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing was 5900 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: In May, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries in the world increased by 4.4% month - on - month and decreased by 8.2% year - on - year. In June, the wood pulp inventory in Europe increased by 2.4% month - on - month and 6.6% year - on - year, while consumption decreased by 9.9% month - on - month and 10.6% year - on - year. In June, China's pulp import volume increased by 0.4% month - on - month and 16.1% year - on - year. As of July 31, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 3.08% month - on - month [8]. 2. Industry News - **European Port Inventory**: In June 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 1.87% month - on - month and 27.23% year - on - year. Most European countries saw a month - on - month increase in port inventory [9]. - **Profit of Paper Industry**: From January to June 2025, the operating income of the papermaking and paper products industry was 6812.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%; the operating cost was 6017.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%; and the total profit was 175.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.4% [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including import bleached softwood pulp spot price, pulp futures price, pulp basis, price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp, inter - delivery spread, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, paper prices and their spreads, and USD - CNY exchange rate, with data sources from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [15][17][19][26][28][30].

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Logs: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (Short - term long/short trends are in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and logs, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, weather factors, inventory levels, and other aspects [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract reducing positions and the 01 contract increasing positions at a lower rate. The enthusiasm for long - positions was hit. Cotton inventory digestion slowed in July, downstream demand was weak, and processing profits were under pressure. There were concerns about the quality of warehouse receipts. The anti - involution trading cooled, and the Sino - US economic and trade negotiation situation was still uncertain. Xinjiang has a strong production increase expectation for the new year. The 9 - 1 spread dropped significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production progress in the main producing areas was slow, and the cane crushing volume and sugar production decreased significantly year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. After July, rainfall in Guangxi was better than usual, but the later rainfall may decrease, increasing the uncertainty of sugar production in the 25/26 season. The US sugar trend is downward, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It is expected that the sugar price will remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but there were quality problems due to high - temperature weather. Traders were bullish. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.57%. The cold - storage apple destocking volume last week was 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.66%. The market's focus shifted to the new - season output estimate. There are still differences in output forecasts, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU, MR, and BR continued to decline. International trade risks increased, and the Fed remained on hold, weakening the sentiment in the rubber market. The current prices of domestic natural and synthetic rubber generally decreased. The global natural rubber supply entered the high - yield period, and there was more heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded, and some plants planned to conduct maintenance. The demand for tires was average, and inventories increased. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to decline. As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.105 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period. The domestic port inventory was relatively high year - on - year, the supply was relatively loose, and the demand was weak. The anti - involution sentiment cooled, and the pulp price may return to low - level fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price was stable. The supply from New Zealand was low. As of July 25, the average daily delivery volume of national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 2.72%. The total port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters. The inventory pressure was relatively small. The supply - demand situation improved, and it is expected that the futures price will continue to rise. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view [8]

Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Summary 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 09 closed at 5374 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the previous settlement price of 5422 yuan/ton [7] - The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5300 - 6700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price unchanged from the previous trading day. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5930 - 5950 yuan/ton [7] - Chile's Arauco announced its July quotation. Yinxing had no new offers as all transactions were completed. The net price of Uruguay hardwood pulp Xinmingxing was 500 US dollars/ton [7] - In May, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries was 1.69 million tons, up 4.4% month - on - month and down 8.2% year - on - year [7] - In June, the inventory of wood pulp in Europe increased by 2.4% month - on - month and 6.6% year - on - year; consumption decreased by 9.9% month - on - month and 10.6% year - on - year [7] - In June, China's total pulp imports were 3.03 million tons, up 0.4% month - on - month and 16.1% year - on - year [7] - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 0.39% month - on - month, and the overall shipment speed was stable [7] - Affected by the off - season atmosphere this week, the production and sales pressure of downstream paper manufacturers remained high. In the short term, pulp prices declined under pressure due to the influence of the commodity market atmosphere [7] 2. Industry News - From January to June 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. From January to June, the operating income of the paper and paper products industry was 681.21 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%; the operating cost was 601.73 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%; the total profit was 17.57 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.4% [8] - Shandong Yinhe Ruixue Paper Co., Ltd. plans to eliminate its existing 102,000 - ton wheat straw chemical pulp production facilities in the first, second, and third - phase continuous cooking, washing, screening, and bleaching workshops, as well as the supporting alkali recovery workshop and white mud refined calcium carbonate workshop [8] 3. Data Overview - The report includes various data charts, such as the spot price of imported bleached softwood pulp in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [7][25][27]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Pulp futures are currently significantly affected by the macro - environment, and the commodity sentiment is expected to be volatile this week. It is recommended to observe cautiously [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 29, 2025, SP2601 was 5544, up 1.02% day - on - day and 0.76% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5406, down 0.55% day - on - day and up 0.96% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5374, up 0.26% day - on - day and 0.11% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 29, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5420, down 0.55% day - on - day and 0.37% week - on - week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4150, unchanged day - on - day and up 1.22% week - on - week [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes (USD)**: In July, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 500, down 10.71% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged month - on - month [1]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in May was 140 tons, up 3.30% month - on - month [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 214.3 tons, down 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 25.60 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The production of major finished papers decreased slightly this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 29, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 46, with a quantile level of 0.796; the Silver Star basis was 546, with a quantile level of 0.864 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On July 29, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36, with a quantile level of 0.684; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 49, with a quantile level of 0.69 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ★☆★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides operation suggestions such as temporary observation or intraday trading based on their respective market conditions [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton dropped significantly, funds shifted to far - month contracts, and the 9 - 1 spread continued to decline. Spinning mills' point - price improved. As of July 15, cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons compared to June. In June 2025, cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a new low in nearly 20 years. From January to June 2025, cumulative imports were 460,000 tons, a 74.3% year - on - year decrease. The cotton yarn market had average trading, with downstream rigid - demand procurement. Macroscopically, attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday trading [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production progress in the main producing areas was slow this year, with a significant year - on - year decline in sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production. In July, rainfall in the main producing areas decreased. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In July, rainfall in Guangxi was better than usual, but the European Meteorological Center's medium - term forecast predicted a possible decrease in later rainfall, increasing the uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season. Overall, the US sugar trend is downward, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It's expected that sugar prices will remain volatile in the short term, and operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price corrected. For early - maturing apples, bagged Qinyang apples were sporadically on the market with high opening prices. Affected by high - temperature weather, early - maturing apples had poor coloration and some quality problems. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a 44.57% year - on - year decrease. Last week, the national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 86,000 tons, a 20.66% year - on - year decline. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. In the western producing areas, although affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the low - temperature impact on production was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in production estimates. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU fluctuated weakly, NR and BR continued to decline, and the rubber market sentiment was weak. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, the synthetic rubber spot price decreased, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price generally declined. Globally, natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period, and there is more heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to rise, and some plants had restart or load - reduction plans. In August, several petrochemical plants plan to conduct centralized maintenance, and the upstream butadiene plant operating rate increased. The domestic all - steel tire operating rate decreased slightly, the semi - steel tire operating rate declined slightly, terminal market demand was average, and tire finished - product inventory continued to increase. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 640,400 tons, the bonded - area inventory decreased while the general - trade inventory increased. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 12,800 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory continued to decline to 15,700 tons. Overall, demand is weakening, supply is increasing, rubber inventory is rising, trade negotiations are going smoothly, there are potential policy benefits, and the hype sentiment has cooled down. Strategically, it's advisable to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR has support [6] Pulp - Today, pulp dropped slightly. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of Russian needles in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,450 yuan/ton; the price of eucalyptus pulp Jinyu was 4,150 yuan/ton. On July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.143 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% month - on - month decline. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, pulp demand is still weak, downstream buyers tend to bargain, and demand is in the traditional off - season. With the cooling of anti - involution sentiment, the pulp fundamentals remain weak, and the price may return to low - level fluctuations. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated at a high level. In terms of supply, the shipment of New Zealand logs was at a low level. As of July 25, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1,700 cubic meters, a 2.72% increase. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume fluctuated around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound situation was good. As of July 25, the total national port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 cubic meters. Among them, the radiata pine inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 cubic meters. The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. As the peak season is approaching, logs will gradually destock, the short - term spot price will rebound, and it's expected that the futures price will continue to rise. Operationally, it's advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market shows a situation of increasing supply volume and decreasing price on the supply - side, weak support from the demand - side, and a slight inventory reduction trend. Pulp futures are currently greatly affected by the macro - environment, and with expected intense commodity sentiment this week, it is recommended to observe cautiously [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 28, 2025, SP2601 was 5488 with a daily decrease of 1.51% and a weekly increase of 0.15%; SP2605 was 5376 with a daily increase of 1.38% and a weekly increase of 1.19%; SP2509 was 5360 with a daily decrease of 2.90% and a weekly increase of 0.49% [1] - **Spot Prices**: On July 28, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920 (unchanged daily and weekly), Russian coniferous pulp was 5450 with a daily decrease of 0.91% and a weekly increase of 2.83%, and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4150 (unchanged daily and a weekly increase of 1.22%) [1] - **Foreign Market Quotes**: The foreign market quotes of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.70% month - on - month to 720 dollars, Chilean Star decreased by 10.71% month - on - month to 500 dollars, and Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 620 dollars [1] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.68% month - on - month to 5884 dollars, Chilean Star decreased by 10.60% month - on - month to 4101 dollars, and Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 5073 dollars [1] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons (a 6.09% decrease from May), and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 143.5 tons (a 10.98% increase from May). The shipment volume of W20 to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemical mechanical pulp fluctuated slightly in July [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 214.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, with a 1.7% decrease. The inventory showed a slight de - stocking trend [2] - **Demand**: The production of major finished papers decreased slightly this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, with weak overall support for pulp [1] 3.3 Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 28, 2025, the Russian coniferous pulp basis was 90 with a quantile level of 0.839, and the Silver Star basis was 560 with a quantile level of 0.869 [1] - **Import Profit**: On July 28, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36 with a quantile level of 0.685, and the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 49 with a quantile level of 0.69 [1] 3.4 Strategy - Pulp futures are currently greatly affected by the macro - environment. With expected intense commodity sentiment this week, it is recommended to observe cautiously [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures are currently greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the commodity sentiment is expected to be volatile this week. It is recommended to observe cautiously [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 25, 2025, SP2601 was 5572, up 0.47% day - on - day and 2.39% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5450, up 0.22% day - on - day and down 0.59% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5520, up 1.17% day - on - day and 4.31% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: On July 25, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5500, up 1.48% day - on - day and 3.77% week - on - week; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4150, unchanged day - on - day and up 1.22% week - on - week [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs**: The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 500 dollars, down 10.71% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged month - on - month. The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% month - on - month [1] - **Domestic Output**: The domestic output of broadleaf pulp on July 24, 2025, was 21 tons; the domestic output of chemimechanical pulp was 21.5 tons [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 214.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% decline [1] - **Finished Paper Output**: This week, the output of major finished papers decreased slightly, with double - offset paper at 19.60 tons, copper - plate paper at 7.90 tons, tissue paper at 27.90 tons, and white cardboard at 31.10 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 25, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was - 20, with a quantile level of 0.646; the basis of Silver Star was 400, with a quantile level of 0.793 [1] - **Import Profit**: On July 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36, with a quantile level of 0.685; that of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 49, with a quantile level of 0.69 [1] Supply - demand - inventory Analysis - **Supply**: The Arauco company in Chile announced the new outer - disk quotes for July wood pulp. The supply side showed an increase in volume and a decrease in price, with the W20's shipment volume to China in May up 3.3% month - on - month [1] - **Demand**: This week, the output of major finished papers decreased slightly, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports showed a slight de - stocking trend [1] Strategy - It is recommended to observe pulp futures cautiously due to their high sensitivity to the macro - environment and the expected volatile commodity sentiment this week [2]