1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: The recent typhoon in the main producing areas has caused some sugarcane lodging, raising concerns about production cuts and boosting the sentiment of Zhengzhou sugar futures. However, both international and domestic markets lack positive factors. Brazil's sugar production has continued to recover more than expected, and the large delivery volume of the October contract of raw sugar has led to strong bearish sentiment in the market under the expectation of global production increase. The domestic market has high imports of refined sugar, and new sugar is about to be launched, while the demand is expected to weaken. In this situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, the sugar futures and spot prices are still under pressure, and the main contract is struggling around the 5500 level [4]. - **Pulp**: The price of hardwood pulp is relatively strong, and the increase in the US dollar quotation has driven a slight increase in the domestic spot price. However, the external market of softwood pulp has remained stable and weak, causing the domestic spot price to adjust following the futures price. From the global shipping data, the supply of wood pulp is still high, and the shipping volume to China is also higher than the same period last year. Although some pulp mills have cut production, the impact is not obvious from the data, so the supply pressure in China may still be high in the future. On the demand side, the increase in the production of finished paper during the peak season supports the demand for wood pulp, but the price increase of finished paper is weak, which weakens the positive impact on wood pulp. Overall, the valuation of pulp is not high, but the improvement in the fundamentals is limited, and the upward driving force is not strong, so it will maintain a low - level operation in the short term [5]. - **Offset Paper**: After the National Day, the spot price of some brands of offset printing paper in some regions continued to decline. Although the market expects an improvement in demand as the peak season approaches, the current fundamentals are still weak. Without policy news on the supply side, the upward driving force is not clear. Even considering the peak season after October, with the current capacity utilization rate, it is still difficult for offset paper to achieve high profits and prices. After Chenming Paper resumes production, the supply pressure may increase. The increase in the US dollar quotation of hardwood pulp provides some support for offset paper, but the increase in wood pulp price may be limited before the supply further decreases. Overall, the improvement in demand during the peak season may support offset paper, but the seasonal improvement may not bring a significant increase in price, and it will run weakly in the medium term [7][8]. - **Cotton**: This week, the cotton futures price has fluctuated weakly. In the external market, the harvest of US cotton is progressing steadily, and although there is some weather interference, the high - yield situation remains unchanged. The change in Sino - US trade relations has increased consumption concerns, putting pressure on the US cotton price, and the futures price is in a downward trend. In the domestic market, the focus is on the realization of the new season's production. The high - yield situation in Xinjiang is basically determined, and the downstream consumption confidence is still insufficient, with seasonal pressure still existing. Although the slower - than - expected harvest rhythm has slightly supported the sentiment, the overall futures price is still expected to continue to decline due to the change in Sino - US trade relations [9]. - **Apples**: The market has recently focused on two aspects: the change in the new season's expectations, with a delay in the listing and prominent weather disturbances in the producing areas, and the festival consumption situation, which is mixed. The apple futures price fluctuates around the realization of the new season's situation. Currently, there are still differences in the new season's realization, and the futures price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Jujubes**: After the festival, the agricultural product sector has run weakly, but the jujube futures price has risen slightly after breaking through the resistance. In the fourth quarter, as the weather trading window for jujubes to be harvested shortens, the futures price of the 2601 contract has turned into a shock after failing to break through, and the premium of futures over spot warehouse receipts has converged. In October, the inventory removal speed of jujube spot has slowed down, and the terminal replenishment enthusiasm has improved, with the dried fruit consumption gradually transitioning to the seasonal peak season. The price of high - quality jujubes in the sales area is running strongly, and the price of ordinary jujubes is stable and firm [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2601**: Adopt a bullish strategy. The main logic is that the difference between the new season's expected and actual situation and the speculation on the delivery value increase, and the futures price may rise in the short term. The support range is 7500 - 7600, and the pressure range is 9000 - 9200 [20]. - **Jujube 2601**: Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. The main logic is that the overall sentiment of commodities is strong, and in the third quarter, jujubes enter the production - forming period, and the market is prone to focus on weather - related price premiums. The support range is 10500 - 11000, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [20]. - **Sugar 2601**: Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. The main logic is that Brazil's production rhythm has accelerated, the futures price has limited upward momentum, and the supply - side pressure has increased. The support range is 5424 - 5437, and the pressure range is 5560 - 5574 [20]. - **Pulp 2511**: Adopt a strategy of shorting within the range. The main logic is that although the short - term valuation is not high, the supply is high, and the weak price of domestic finished paper makes the upward driving force of pulp weak, and it will run weakly within the range. The support range is 4700 - 4800, and the pressure range is 5100 - 5200 [20]. - **Offset Paper 2601**: Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. The main logic is that as the peak season approaches, it supports the short - term price, but with high supply elasticity, the price increase may be limited by relying solely on peak - season demand. The support range is 4100 - 4200, and the pressure range is 4400 - 4500 [20]. - **Cotton 2601**: Hold short positions cautiously. The main logic is that new cotton is about to be launched, the high - yield expectation is strong, and the change in Sino - US trade relations has put pressure on the short - term futures price. The support range is 12800 - 13000, and the pressure range is 13600 - 13700 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.57%. As of September 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 121,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,400 tons. As of September 25, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 147,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,200 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 30,700 tons [21]. - **Spot Market Situation**: The inventory apple market in Shandong is stable, and the cold - storage goods are rarely traded. New - season late - maturing Fuji apples have not been widely supplied due to weather reasons, and the listing time has been postponed by about 10 days. In Shaanxi, there are few red apples, and only some merchants have started to order high - quality orchards. The market in the sales area is generally stable, and the shipment is smooth [21][22][23]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9167 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39%, and a year - on - year increase of 93.89%. During the double festivals, the arrival of goods in the sales area was small, and the number of merchants inspecting and purchasing goods was average due to the holiday mood and rainfall. Attention should be paid to the circulation of old - season goods and the change of spot price before the new - season jujubes are harvested [24]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' forecast of the sugar supply - demand situation for the 2025/26 season remains the same as last month, with a total sugar production of 1.12 billion tons and an expected import volume of 500,000 tons. In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia was not conducive to sugar beet sugar accumulation and harvesting, and the impact on sugar beet sugar production needs further assessment. In late September and early October, typhoons in the main sugarcane producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi caused sugarcane lodging. As of September 30, 2025, Yunnan's cumulative sugar sales were 2.214 million tons, with a sales rate of 91.54%, a year - on - year slight decrease, and an industrial inventory of 204,700 tons, an increase compared to last year [26]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market Chinese traders have counter - offered to purchase imported NBSK at $650 per ton, but sellers have refused to reduce the price. An European supplier sold NBSK at $650 per ton, far below the market level. A supplier said that the demand for imported bleached softwood pulp has been weak for several months. The price of Canadian and Nordic NBSK remains at $680 - 700 per ton. Suzano has announced a $20 per ton increase in the price of South American bleached hardwood pulp orders in the Asian market for October, the third consecutive increase since August, and will also increase the price for the European and North American markets [28]. 3.2.5 Offset Paper Market In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price of high - white offset paper is 4700 - 4800 yuan per ton, and the price of some natural - white offset paper is 4300 - 4550 yuan per ton, with a price decrease compared to the previous day. In Guangdong, the mainstream transaction price of high - white offset paper is 4600 - 4800 yuan per ton, and the price is stable compared to the previous day. In Beijing, the mainstream transaction price of high - white offset paper is 4800 - 4850 yuan per ton, and the price of some products has decreased. In Sichuan, the mainstream transaction price of high - white offset paper is 4900 yuan per ton, and the price is stable compared to the previous day [29][30]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market In August, Turkey's cotton imports were 78,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20% and a year - on - year increase of 35.0%. Turkey's clothing export volume in August was $1.47 billion, a month - on - month flat and a year - on - year decrease of 9%. As of recently, the cotton processing work in Australia in the 25th season is nearly 90% complete. The October report of the Cotton Information Network has lowered the forecast of the new - season import volume and the ending inventory [31]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 8744 | 111 | 1.29% | | Jujube 2601 | 11145 | 185 | 1.69% | | Sugar 2601 | 5496 | - 32 | - 0.58% | | Pulp 2511 | 4788 | - 16 | - 0.33% | | Cotton 2601 | 13325 | 30 | 0.23% | [31][32] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.20 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5800 | 0 | - 740 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5650 | 0 | - 500 | | Offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4450 | 0 | - 550 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 14775 | 18 | - 797 | [38] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis is provided, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 10 - 1 | 431 | - 116 | - 147 | Fluctuate repeatedly | Wait and see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | 235 | 255 | - 170 | Fluctuate within a range | Wait and see | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 27 | 0 | 14 | Fluctuate within a range | Wait and see | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | - 50 | 0 | 25 | Fluctuate within a range | Wait and see temporarily | [57] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific data analysis is provided, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Sugar | 8867 | - 31 | - 1050 | | Pulp | 231693 | - 413 | - 173345 | | Cotton | 2942 | - 88 | - 1831 | [82] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data analysis is provided, only relevant figures are mentioned.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts. Pulp futures are running weakly. It is recommended to consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, SP2601 was 5078, down 0.51% day - on - day and 4.44% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4788, down 0.33% day - on - day and 5.38% week - on - week; SP2505 was 5136, down 0.19% day - on - day and 3.60% week - on - week [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5520, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.30% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5050, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.88% week - on - week; Hardwood pulp was 4250, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.71% week - on - week [5]. - **Outer - Disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars, down 2.78% month - on - month; Rizhao Beige was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [5]. - **Import Costs**: Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [5]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month - on - month; hardwood pulp imports were 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, up 4.50% [5]. - **Production**: In September 2025, hardwood pulp production was 23.8 tons; chemimechanical pulp production was 22.3 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, down 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decline; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 23.5 tons [5]. - **Demand**: In September 2025, the production of offset paper was 21.00 tons; copperplate paper was 8.50 tons; tissue paper was 28.07 tons; white cardboard was 35.90 tons [5]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 10, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 262, with a quantile level of 0.913; the Silver Star basis was 732, with a quantile level of 0.926 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On October 10, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 201, with a quantile level of 0.31; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.554 [5]. Market Situation - **Supply Side**: Arauco in Chile offered coniferous pulp Silver Star at 700 dollars/ton in September; hardwood pulp Star at 540 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; and beige pulp Venus at a flat 590 dollars/ton. Coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes decreased, while hardwood pulp quotes increased [5]. - **Demand Side**: Current paper product demand is basically stable, paper product prices have not rebounded significantly, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [5]. - **Inventory Side**: As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 203.3 tons, a 7.9 - ton reduction from the previous period, a 3.7% decline, showing a de - stocking trend [5].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - Pulp futures contract 01 decreased by 0.59%, and the pulp market showed a low - level volatile adjustment. The downstream demand was weak, and the supply pressure of double - offset paper remained due to new capacity [7]. Group 4: Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures 01 contract: The previous settlement price was 5108 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5078 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.59% [7]. - Shandong wood pulp market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 4810 - 6600 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5520 - 5550 yuan/ton [7]. - Arauco's September offer: Coniferous pulp Yinxing was 700 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from last month; natural pulp Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged from last month; hardwood pulp Mingxing was 540 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton from last month [7]. - August production and import data: The chemical pulp shipments of 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 10.3% year - on - year. China's pulp import volume was 265.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.6% [7]. - Inventory data: As of October 9, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 0.51% month - on - month [7]. - Downstream market: The enthusiasm of downstream paper mills to purchase pulp was low, and most maintained just - in - time purchases. The offer of double - offset paper still declined after the festival, and there was still supply pressure [7]. 2. Industry News - On October 10, the import of waste pulp attracted the attention of customs. Customs required importers to indicate the production process of recycled pulp in the customs declaration form from October 10, 2025 [8]. 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts were provided, including import softwood pulp spot price, pulp futures price, pulp spot - futures price difference, etc., with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [14][16][18]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts. Pulp futures are running weakly. It is recommended to consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread [5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices (October 9, 2025)**: SP2601 is 5104, down 0.74% day - on - day and 3.63% week - on - week; SP2511 is 4804, down 0.62% day - on - day and 4.76% week - on - week; SP2505 is 5146, down 0.73% day - on - day and 3.13% week - on - week [5]. - **Spot Prices (October 9, 2025)**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star is 5520, down 0.54% day - on - day and 2.30% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle is 5050, down 0.98% day - on - day and 2.88% week - on - week; Hardwood pulp is 4250, with 0.00% day - on - day change and 0.71% week - on - week increase [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star outer - disk quote is 700 dollars, down 2.78% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish outer - disk quote is 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus outer - disk quote is 590 dollars, with 0.00% month - on - month change. The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish is 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; that of Chilean Venus is 4830, with 0.00% month - on - month change [5]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month - on - month; that of hardwood pulp was 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in September 2025 [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, down 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decrease. The futures delivery warehouse inventory also showed a downward trend [5]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and cardboard fluctuated in September 2025, and the current demand for paper products remained stable, with no obvious rebound in paper prices [5]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 9, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 246, with a quantile level of 0.912; the Silver Star basis was 716, with a quantile level of 0.92 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On October 9, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 201, with a quantile level of 0.31; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.554 [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp fundamentals still show no signs of repair. Pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts have not significantly decreased, and pulp futures are running weakly. It is recommended to consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 30, 2025, SP2601 was 5142 with a daily decrease of 0.62% and a weekly decrease of 2.47%; SP2511 was 4834 with a daily decrease of 0.90% and a weekly decrease of 3.47%; SP2505 was 5184 with a daily decrease of 0.58% and a weekly decrease of 1.97% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 30, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550 with a daily decrease of 0.89% and a weekly decrease of 1.77%; Russian Needle was 5100 with a daily decrease of 0.97% and a weekly decrease of 1.92%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.71% [5]. - **Outer - Disk Quotes**: The outer - disk quote for Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars, a monthly decrease of 2.78%; Japanese - origin was 530 dollars, a monthly increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars with no monthly change [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, a monthly increase of 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830 with no monthly change [5]. 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 61.4 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.95%; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 125.8 tons, a monthly decrease of 6.88%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 162 tons, a 4.50% increase. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed certain fluctuations [5]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed certain fluctuations, but the overall demand for paper products was basically stable, and the price of paper products had no obvious rebound [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 203.3 tons, a decrease of 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decrease, showing a destocking trend [5]. 3.3 Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 30, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 266 with a quantile level of 0.915; the Silver Star basis was 716 with a quantile level of 0.92 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On September 30, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 171 with a quantile level of 0.359; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.554 [5].

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have no signs of repair, the inventory at pulp ports and the number of warehouse receipts have no obvious reduction, and pulp futures are oscillating. It is recommended to consider the 11 - 1 reverse spread [5][6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 26, 2025, SP2601 was 5272, down 0.79% day - on - day and 0.83% week - on - week; SP2511 was 5016, down 0.87% day - on - day and 0.04% week - on - week; SP2505 was 5296, down 0.60% day - on - day and 0.71% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5200, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4220, unchanged [5] - **Foreign Offer Prices**: In September 2025, the offer price of Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars, down 2.78% month - on - month; the offer price of a certain unnamed variety was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; the offer price of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5] 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China was 162 tons, up 4.50% [5] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, down 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decline. The inventory showed a de - stocking trend [5] - **Demand**: The current demand for paper products is basically stable, paper product prices have no obvious rebound, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [5] 3.3 Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 26, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 184, with a quantile level of 0.897; the Silver Star basis was 634, with a quantile level of 0.877 [5] - **Import Profit**: On September 26, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 71, with a quantile level of 0.497; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 124, with a quantile level of 0.523 [5] 3.4 Strategy - Consider the 11 - 1 reverse spread as the pulp fundamentals have no signs of repair, and the pulp port inventory and warehouse receipt numbers have no obvious reduction, with pulp futures oscillating [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term. Supply - side pressure is difficult to ease quickly, with increasing imports and slow inventory reduction at ports. The demand side has certain rigid support but lacks obvious growth momentum [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of September 25, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 452,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56,000 tons (11.0%); at Qingdao Port, it was 1.425 million tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons (0.5%); at Gaolan Port, it was 41,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons (16.3%). The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons (3.7%) [5][6]. - In August 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 614,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.1%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 5.74 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 1.258 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 11.152 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.7% [6][7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On September 26, 2025, the basis for Silver Star was 634 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 89.82%; the basis for Russian Needle was 184 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.10% and a year - on - year increase of 258.62%; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week or year - on - year change [16]. - The 11 - 01 month spread was - 256 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.09%; the 01 - 05 month spread was - 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 33.33% [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp was stable. On September 26, 2025, the spread between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,430 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 3.62%; the spread between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 980 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 5.38% [28]. - The import profit of softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On September 26, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 394.60%; the import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 171.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 294.01% [31]. - The prices of different types of pulp showed different trends. On September 26, 2025, the prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Kalip, and Northwood were 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,800 yuan/ton, and 6,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change; the prices of hardwood pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird were 4,220 yuan/ton, 4,250 yuan/ton, and 4,200 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [34][38]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price in East China was generally stable, with a slight decrease in the purchase price of poplar chips by Champion Paper [43]. - The price of domestic chemimechanical pulp decreased slightly this week, the price of hardwood pulp was stable, and the supply increased. On September 25, 2025, the daily average price of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 3,825 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%; the weekly output of domestic hardwood pulp was 131,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.34% [47][49]. - In July 2025, the European port inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and the global pulp out - port volume increased seasonally month - on - month but was relatively low year - on - year [52]. - The W20 softwood pulp shipment volume was at a low level with high inventory, while the hardwood pulp shipment volume remained high, but the inventory days continued to decline [54]. - In July 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from Canada, Finland, Chile, and the United States to China increased significantly month - on - month, and in August, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China decreased month - on - month [58]. - In July 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile increased month - on - month, and in August, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp to China decreased seasonally month - on - month, while the export volume of Uruguayan hardwood pulp to China increased significantly [62]. - In August 2025, China's total pulp import volume decreased, with softwood pulp down 5.01% month - on - month, hardwood pulp down 6.92% month - on - month, and chemimechanical pulp down 27.41% month - on - month [66]. 3.3.3 Demand - The price of offset paper was weakly sorted this week. The supply was sufficient, but the downstream demand was weak, and the market was in a stalemate [70]. - The average price of coated paper was slightly adjusted. The supply increased, but the consumption was still sluggish due to the macro - environment and electronic media impact [74]. - The supply and demand of white cardboard both showed an upward trend. The large manufacturers planned to increase the order - taking price by 100 yuan/ton in October, and the market low - price increased [78]. - The market of tissue paper was flat, the terminal demand was weak, and the industry's overall operating rate remained low [82]. - In August 2025, the retail sales in the pulp terminal demand area recovered slightly seasonally month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth of cultural office supplies, daily necessities, and books and magazines was significant [86]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On September 26, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (warehouse) was 226,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.18%; the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (factory) was 9,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49.34% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.47% [89]. - The port inventory was at a medium - low level within the year, and the inventory of domestic mainstream ports showed a destocking trend this period [98].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations, Sino - US trade negotiations, and geopolitical issues. Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a complex supply - demand situation. With increasing supply and weak pre - holiday demand, the spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][4]. - The fuel oil market has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from high inventory, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and weak demand [5][6]. - The PX & PTA market has a tight balance in the short - term, but the supply is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the price is affected by macro and cost factors [8][9]. - The ethylene glycol market has an expected increase in supply and a weakening demand, with a risk of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - The short - fiber market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, but the processing fee is expected to remain low [13][14]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][15]. - The pure benzene and styrene market has different supply - demand situations. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be volatile; styrene supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - The propylene market has an increasing supply and weak downstream demand, and the price is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [19][20]. - The plastic and PP market has a short - term price volatility due to rising oil prices and a medium - term bearish outlook [21][23]. - The PVC market has a large inventory pressure, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook in the short - and medium - term [23][26]. - The caustic soda market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term is weak, and the medium - term is expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [31][32]. - The glass market is expected to be volatile before the holiday, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand [34][36]. - The methanol market has an increasing supply and a high port inventory, and the price rebound is limited [39]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and export [40][41]. - The log market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the price can be slightly long - tried near the integer level [43]. - The pulp market has a high port inventory and weak demand, and the price can be slightly long - bought at the low point of last week [44][46]. - The offset printing paper market has a slight increase in supply and weak demand, and the price of the 01 contract can be short - sold near the lower limit of the spot price [47][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market has different trends for different types of rubber, and the trading strategies vary for different contracts [49][51]. - The butadiene rubber market has a decreasing capacity utilization rate, and the price of the 11 - contract can be short - tried [52][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 contract settled at $64.98, down $0.01 (- 0.02%); Brent2511 contract settled at $69.42, up $0.11 (+ 0.16%); SC2511 contract rose 6.6 to 488.9 yuan/barrel, and rose 2.2 to 491.1 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: A new Fed governor called for significant rate cuts, but other colleagues advocated caution. US initial jobless claims decreased, and investors thought it did not support further rate cuts. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affected oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US trade negotiations improved the macro - sentiment, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation increased the risk premium. The short - term oil price is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel; gasoline and diesel crack spreads are weak; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3440 points (+ 0.41%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3386 points (+ 0.39%) at night. The spot price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, rising crude oil prices and reduced rainfall increased demand, but the supply - demand pattern did not change significantly. In the Yangtze River Delta market, pre - holiday project rush increased demand, but low - price resources from some merchants affected the price. In the South China market, typhoon and rainfall affected sales, but the expected reduction in production in October supported the price [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic asphalt plant operating rate increased, the refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The high - level oil price supported the cost, but the pre - holiday demand was weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be weak; sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2893 (+ 0.35%) at night, and LU11 closed at 3455 (+ 0.58%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [5]. - **Related News**: The ARA fuel oil inventory decreased, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot windows had no or few transactions [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Russian energy facilities were attacked, but the refineries and transportation facilities recovered. The high - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand decreased. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand had no specific driver [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and LU near - month contract is expected to be range - bound with crude oil; consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [8]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 72/+ 1.09%) during the day and 6636 (- 38/- 0.57%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4678 (+ 52/+ 1.12%) during the day and 4652 (- 26/- 0.56%) at night. The PX spot price increased, and the PTA basis was stable [8]. - **Related News**: The PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The PTA production and sales increased [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The PTA supply is expected to increase slightly in October, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is affected by macro and cost factors [9][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to rising oil prices and market sentiment, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [10]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4246 (+ 12/+ 0.28%) and 4224 (- 22/- 0.52%) at night. The spot basis was stable [10][11]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol production and sales changed, and the operating rate decreased [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase due to planned maintenance and new device commissioning, and the demand is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be loose, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weak and volatile; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [12]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 76/+ 1.21%) during the day and 6326 (- 46/- 0.72%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [12][13]. - **Related News**: The polyester production and sales increased, and the terminal operating rate increased [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber processing fee fluctuated narrowly. The raw material price increase and terminal operating rate increase promoted inventory reduction, but the terminal cash flow was in deficit, and the processing fee was expected to remain low [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [14]. PR (Bottle - Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5840 (+ 56/+ 0.97%) and 5808 (- 32/- 0.55%) at night. The spot market had a good trading atmosphere [14]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip factory export price increased slightly [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream terminal bid for next - year's first - quarter orders, a bottle - chip device was under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory was expected to decrease, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5922 (+ 15/+ 0.25%) during the day and 5894 (- 28/- 0.47%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6958 (+ 30/+ 0.43%) during the day and 6927 (- 31/- 0.45%) at night. The pure benzene spot price increased slightly, and the styrene port inventory increased [16]. - **Related News**: The pure benzene and styrene production and sales and operating rates changed [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The styrene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. The price is affected by inventory and downstream demand [17][18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to geopolitical and macro factors, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; long pure benzene and short styrene in arbitrage; options are on hold [18]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 15/+ 0.24%) and 6371 (- 1/- 0.02%) at night. The spot price in different regions remained stable [18][19]. - **Related News**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propane market entered the peak season, and the demand for PDH devices was expected to increase. The propylene supply increased due to device restart, and the market was loose. The downstream product profit was poor, and the load increase was limited [19][20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is recommended to short - sell on rebounds; arbitrage is on hold; sell put options [21]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price partially weakened, and the PP spot price in different regions was stable or slightly changed. The linear futures increased slightly [21]. - **Related News**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios decreased, and the operating rates changed. The downstream industry operating rates increased slightly [21][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand was in the peak season, and the pre - holiday inventory was concerned. The supply was expected to increase due to reduced maintenance and new device commissioning. The near - term cost increase supported the price, and the medium - term price was recommended to be short - sold on highs [23]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be volatile, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was strong and volatile, and the futures price was also strong and volatile. The trading was light [23]. - **Related News**: The PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, the预售 volume increased slightly, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory increased [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC inventory was at a high level, and the supply was expected to increase due to new device commissioning. The demand was weak due to the real - estate market weakness, and the export was expected to decrease. The short - and medium - term outlook was bearish [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is bearish in the short - and medium - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price in different regions remained stable [26]. - **Related News**: The caustic soda production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory increased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: The caustic soda market was in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term was affected by inventory and price reduction, and the medium - term was expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term is weak, and medium - term is long after a sufficient correction; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 01 contract closed at 1315 yuan (+ 8/+ 0.6%) during the day and 1306 yuan (- 9/- 0.7%) at night. The spot price in different regions changed slightly [29][31]. - **Related News**: The soda ash production, inventory, and profit changed. The market was weak and stable [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply was at a high level, and the demand was stable. The price was affected by inventory, downstream demand, and policy. The price was expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday [32]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [32][34]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 01 contract closed at 1270 yuan (+ 33/+ 2.67%) and 1264 yuan (- 6/- 0.47%) at night. The spot price in different regions increased [34][35]. - **Related News**: The glass production, inventory, and profit changed. The market trading atmosphere was good [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass production increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price was affected by production, inventory, and demand. The price was expected to be volatile before the holiday [36]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile before the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [36][37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2341 (- 16/- 0.68%). The spot price in different regions was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The methanol production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device operating rate decreased, and the import recovered. The domestic supply was loose due to the end of autumn maintenance. The port inventory increased rapidly. The price rebound was limited due to supply and inventory [39]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stop loss on short positions; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1674 (+ 1/+ 0.06%). The spot price was stable with small changes [40]. - **Related News**: The urea production and operating rate changed [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The export had a certain

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp fundamentals still show no signs of recovery, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts. The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate, and an 11 - 1 reverse spread is recommended [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 25, 2025, SP2601 was 5314 with a daily increase of 0.34% and a weekly decrease of 0.15%; SP2511 was 5060 with a daily increase of 0.32% and a weekly increase of 0.92%; SP2505 was 5328 with a daily increase of 0.30% and a weekly decrease of 0.34% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650, Russian Needle was 5200; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4220, all with no daily or weekly changes [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.78% to 700 dollars; Japanese quotes increased by 3.92% to 530 dollars; Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 590 dollars [5]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.75% to 5721; Brazilian Goldfish increased by 3.87% to 4344; Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 4830 [5]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 61.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95%; broad - leaf pulp imports were 125.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.88%. The pulp shipment volume to China in August was 162 tons, a 4.50% increase [5]. - **Production**: Domestic broad - leaf pulp production on September 25, 2025, was 23.8 tons; chemimechanical pulp production was 22.3 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, a decrease of 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decrease. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 23.5 tons [5]. - **Demand**: On September 25, 2025, double - offset paper production was 21.00 tons; coated paper production was 8.50 tons; tissue paper production was 28.07 tons; white cardboard production was 35.90 tons [5]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 25, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 140 with a quantile level of 0.867; the Silver Star basis was 590 with a quantile level of 0.86 [5]. - **Import Profit**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star had an import profit of - 71 with a quantile level of 0.497; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish had an import profit of - 124 with a quantile level of 0.523 [5]. Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Arauco's September quotes showed a decrease in coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes and an increase in broad - leaf pulp quotes [5]. - **Demand Side**: Current paper product demand is stable, prices have not rebounded significantly, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on pulp demand has not been reflected [5]. - **Inventory Side**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp inventory showed a de - stocking trend [5].