投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 TG国贸期货 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年12月17日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月17日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5440 | 0. 78% | 1. 49% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5600 | 0. 00% | 1.82% | | (元/吨) | SP2609 | 5532 | 0.62% | 1.69% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5250 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 5506 | 0.69% | 1. 29% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4500 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银星 | 700 | 680 | 2.94% | 进口成本 | 智利银星 | 5721 | 5559 | ...

Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].

纸浆价格数据 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 TG国贸期货 ,数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 | 日环比 | | 2025年12月16日 | | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月16日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 针叶浆银星 | SP2601 期货价格 | 5398 | -1.75% | 0. 22% | 现货价格 | | 5600 | 0.00% | 1.82% | | SP2609 | (元/吨) | 5498 | -1.79% | 0. 77% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5250 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | SP2605 | | 5468 | -1.87% | 0.07% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4500 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | 上期价格 | | 本期价格 | | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 智利银星 | ...

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - Cotton: In the short term, both international and domestic cotton markets face supply pressure and weak demand, but the downside space is limited. In the medium - long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range. For domestic cotton, new - year supply - demand is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be optimistically viewed after seasonal pressure [1][2] - Sugar: The global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 25/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - medium - term rebound space of international sugar prices is limited. Zhengzhou sugar has low valuation, and the short - term downside space is also limited [4] - Pulp: Although the supply - demand situation has not been substantially improved, the previous negative factors have been digested, and the marginal incremental demand for pulp raw materials in the future may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually [7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 13,945 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,968 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. As of December 13, the planting progress of 2025/26 Brazilian cotton was 10.1%, up 4.8 percentage points month - on - month and 2.1 percentage points slower year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - International: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production and demand both decreased, and the ending inventory slightly increased. US cotton production continued to increase slightly, with obvious inventory - building pressure. In the short term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and in the medium - long term, the downside space is limited [1] - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton continued to increase in production. Short - term supply is abundant, but the hedging resistance on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downside space of cotton prices is limited [1] Strategy - Be neutral to bullish, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract at low prices. Focus on the change of the cotton target price policy next year [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,133 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton (-1.42%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,260 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 1.6008 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of December, a year - on - year increase of 37.65% [3] Market Analysis - International: The short - term rebound of raw sugar futures is supported, but the global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 25/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - medium - term rebound space is limited. - Domestic: The supply of Zhengzhou sugar is abundant in the short term, and the fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation limits the short - term downside space [4] Strategy - Be neutral. Pay attention to the impact of capital on the futures market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,468 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan/ton (-1.87%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,075 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. Most pulp prices were stable, and a few decreased slightly [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance plans. The Crofton paper mill in Canada will be permanently closed, and the Rauma pulp mill of Stora Enso will be temporarily shut down. - Demand: European port pulp inventory decreased in October. In China, although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is still at a high level, but it has decreased recently. The expansion of downstream paper production capacity in the future will increase the demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Be neutral. The previous negative factors have been digested, but the supply - demand situation has not been substantially improved, which limits the upward space of pulp prices. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the futures market [8]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 TG国贸期货 | | | 2025年12月15日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月15日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5494 | 0. 73% | 1. 89% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5600 | 0.00% | 1.82% | | (元/吨) | SP2609 | 5598 | 1.05% | 3.17% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5250 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 5572 | 0.69% | 2. 50% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4500 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银星 | 700 | 680 | 2.94% | 进口成本 | 智利银星 | 5721 | 5559 | 2.91% | ...

Report Information - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: December 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Liu Youran, Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Feng Zeren [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The pulp market shows a situation of strong pulp and weak paper. Recently, the excessive increase in raw material prices has increased the processing pressure on downstream paper mills, and the cultural paper market price is still under pressure. In the short term, funds are gambling on the pricing of old and new warehouse receipts, and it is recommended to wait and see [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 05 contract was 5,548 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,572 yuan/ton, a overall increase of 0.43%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,850 - 6,300 yuan/ton, a price increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price. Among them, the quotation of Shandong Arauco Silver Star was 5,550 - 5,580 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco's December pulp export quotation: the price of softwood pulp Silver Star increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 700 US dollars/ton; the price of unbleached pulp Venus remained flat at 620 US dollars/ton; the price of hardwood pulp Star increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 570 US dollars/ton. According to PPPC, in October, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp-producing countries decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with softwood pulp down 7.1% and hardwood pulp down 1.9%. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly year-on-year. According to Europulp data, in October 2025, the total inventory of wood pulp in European ports decreased by 10.2% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year. In November 2025, the total pulp imports were 3.246 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 24% and a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. As of December 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 1.9817 million tons, a decrease of 3.00% from the previous week [8] 2. Industry News - On December 11th, Suzano's board of directors approved a capital increase plan of 5 billion Brazilian reals, which was achieved by capitalizing the remaining capital increase reserve and part of the investment reserve without issuing new shares. After this capital increase, the company's share capital increased to 24.27 billion Brazilian reals, with a total of more than 1.26 billion shares. At the same time, the pulp producer released its latest cost estimate for its pulp business in 2027, which considered the expected currency adjustment next year, the change in the inflation rate in 2025, and the adjustment related to the previous scenario [9] - On December 11th, according to the previous project announcement of Nine Dragons Paper, in order to further improve the product raw material structure, it plans to carry out technological transformation on the existing project at the Beihai base, and build a 800,000-ton unbleached chemical pulp production line, a 500,000-ton kraft linerboard production line, and supporting alkali recovery systems (including lime kilns), environmental protection supporting projects, etc. After the expansion and renovation, the newly added unbleached chemical pulp will replace part of the waste paper raw materials of the existing papermaking lines, produce higher-quality papermaking products that better meet market demand, achieve the balance of pulp and paper in the whole plant, and lay a foundation for expanding high-end paper types [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of imported bleached softwood pulp in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot-futures price differences, softwood-hardwood price differences, inter-period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, copperplate paper and offset paper prices and price differences, white cardboard and whiteboard paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar to RMB exchange rate. The data sources are mainly Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][15][24]

TG国贸期货 ,数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | 2025年12月14日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月14日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5454 | -0. 98% | 0. 07% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5600 | 0.00% | 0. 00% | | (元/吨) | SP2609 | 5540 | -0. 82% | 1. 28% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5250 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 5534 | -0.93% | 0. 80% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4500 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月坏比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银 ...

Cotton Market Insights - The cotton futures contract 2601 closed at 13,835 CNY/ton, an increase of 85 CNY/ton, or 0.62% week-on-week [2][17] - In Xinjiang, the spot price of cotton reached 14,896 CNY/ton, up 23 CNY/ton, while the national weighted average spot price was 15,062 CNY/ton, increasing by 40 CNY/ton [2][18] - As of the end of November 2025, China's commercial cotton inventory stood at 4.6836 million tons, up 175.3 thousand tons, a 59.82% increase from the previous month [3][18] International Market Analysis - The USDA reported a 36% decrease in net cotton contracts for the week of November 7-13, with a total of 42,547 tons signed [2][18] - The U.S. cotton production is under pressure due to increased inventory levels, while global textile consumption remains weak, leading to short-term pressure on cotton prices [4][18] - The cotton market is expected to face seasonal supply pressures as new cotton is harvested in the Northern Hemisphere [4][19] Domestic Market Analysis - Domestic cotton production is expected to increase as the harvest in Xinjiang nears completion, contributing to a seasonal rise in commercial inventory [5][19] - The demand side shows weakness as the textile industry enters its off-season, although spinning profits have improved, limiting downward pressure on cotton prices [5][19] - The strategy suggests a neutral to slightly bullish outlook, focusing on buying opportunities in the 05 contract due to expected tight supply in the new year [6][20] Sugar Market Insights - The sugar futures contract 2605 closed at 5,214 CNY/ton, down 19 CNY/ton, or 0.36% week-on-week [7][21] - In Guangxi, the spot price of sugar was 5,370 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton, while in Yunnan, it was 5,295 CNY/ton, down 75 CNY/ton [7][22] - Brazil's sugarcane planting area is projected to be 9.398 million hectares, a 0.2% decrease from the previous month, with sugar production expected to decline by 1.4% year-on-year [8][22] Market Dynamics - The global sugar supply remains in surplus, with no immediate signs of reversal, limiting the potential for price rebounds in the short to medium term [9][23] - Domestic sugar supply is currently ample as factories in Guangxi begin production, although the market remains under downward pressure [9][23] - The strategy is neutral, with attention on market dynamics that could lead to new lows, while maintaining a low-level consolidation approach [10][24] Pulp Market Insights - The pulp futures contract 2605 closed at 5,534 CNY/ton, an increase of 44 CNY/ton, or 0.80% week-on-week [11][25] - The average price of needle pulp in Shandong was 5,590 CNY/ton, up 90 CNY/ton, while Russian needle pulp averaged 5,090 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY/ton [11][26] - Recent announcements of mill closures and maintenance in North America are expected to impact supply, while demand in Europe shows signs of improvement [13][27] Supply and Demand Outlook - Despite high inventory levels in domestic ports, recent declines in stock levels indicate potential marginal demand growth for pulp as paper production capacity expands [13][27] - The strategy remains neutral, with recent price increases driven by market adjustments, although fundamental supply-demand conditions have yet to show significant improvement [14][28]

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as crude oil, asphalt, polyester, etc. [4] Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The energy and chemical market is generally under pressure. Crude oil and asphalt markets face supply - demand imbalances with potential mid - term downward risks. Polyester, short - fiber, and related products are affected by seasonal demand weakness and cost factors. Polyolefins are in a supply - surplus and demand - weak pattern, while纯碱 remains in a state of oversupply. Paper pulp lacks a clear trend due to supply - demand mismatches [7][31][85][124][143] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices declined. The US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers affected the market sentiment, but the impact on total supply was limited. The 4Q supply surplus deepened, and the market inventory accumulation accelerated [7] - **Fundamental Changes**: IEA and EIA adjusted supply and demand expectations. IEA slightly lowered the global crude oil supply growth rate, while EIA made different adjustments for 2025 and 2026. Demand growth was mainly driven by non - OECD countries, especially China. The inventory accumulation rate in 4Q 2025 and 1Q 2026 increased after the December report adjustment [9][10] - **Outlook**: Short - term market has no clear driver, mainly trading on news. Mid - term, there are still downward risks [7] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices showed some declines. The cost was affected by the situation of Venezuelan oil, and the supply and demand were both weak. The overall market was in a state of shock [30] - **Fundamental Changes**: Cost was influenced by the Venezuelan oil situation. Supply side: the overall开工 rate increased slightly, but regional differences existed. Demand was affected by cold weather and seasonality, and the inventory of factories and social warehouses decreased. The production profit increased slightly [32][33][34] - **Outlook**: The oil price has no strong support, and the asphalt market is expected to continue to fluctuate [31] Polyester - **Market Review**: PTA prices were affected by crude oil and inventory expectations. Ethylene glycol faced supply - demand pressure and weakening spot support [57] - **Main Drivers**: Downstream consumption was expected to be stable in the short - term but would weaken gradually. PTA was expected to have a slight price increase due to potential new polyester capacity. Ethylene glycol was expected to maintain a weak trend due to supply - demand imbalance and market caution [59][60][62] - **Outlook**: PTA was expected to have a slight price increase, while ethylene glycol was expected to be weak [58] Short - fiber - **Market Review**: Last week, the price of polyester short - fiber declined due to cost and supply - demand factors. This week, it is expected to be slightly warmer due to cost support [67] - **Main Drivers**: Downstream consumption support was weakening. Short - fiber production was expected to be stable, with relatively loose supply and weakening demand [68][69] - **Outlook**: The price of polyester short - fiber is expected to be slightly warmer [67] Polyolefins - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices of polyolefins declined. The market was in a state of supply surplus and demand weakness [84] - **Fundamental Changes**: The impact of plant maintenance on supply decreased, and the supply pressure increased. The demand was weak, with most PE downstream loads declining and PP开工 remaining stable. Production profits varied by raw material type, and inventory management faced challenges [85][92][99] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin market is expected to continue to operate weakly at the bottom, with attention to support levels [85] 纯碱 - **Market Review**: The price of the main 纯碱 contract declined, and the supply increased while the demand was weak. The inventory decreased significantly [119] - **Market Situation**: Supply: production and开工 rate increased. Inventory: the decrease was not sustainable due to weak demand. Spot price: remained stable in a narrow range. Downstream: the demand for 纯碱 from float glass and photovoltaic glass was weak [125][131][137] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the market may continue to grind at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is taken [124] Paper Pulp - **Market Review**: The price of the paper pulp contract increased, and the spot price of wood pulp also showed an upward trend. However, the demand was weak, and there was no clear trend [142] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries, import volume, and inventory showed different trends. The downstream market faced cost - transfer difficulties [144][149][156] - **Outlook**: Short - term, it is recommended to be cautious and observe due to lack of a trend [143]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures 05 contract rose 2.95% to 5586 yuan/ton. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market increased by 100 yuan/ton. The price of Arauco's pulp in December showed a mixed trend. The shipment volume of chemical pulp from 20 pulp - producing countries in October decreased year - on - year. European port pulp inventory decreased in October 2025. Pulp imports in November 2025 increased. The weekly pulp inventory in major areas and ports as of December 4, 2025, increased slightly. Downstream paper prices had narrow adjustments, with cost pressure remaining. Due to the strong pulp and weak paper situation and short - term capital speculation, it is advisable to wait and see [7][8] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The pre - settlement price of the pulp futures 05 contract was 5426 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5586 yuan/ton, a 2.95% increase. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4850 - 6300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The Shandong Yinxing quotation was 5580 - 5600 yuan/ton. Arauco's December pulp quotes: softwood pulp Yinxing rose 20 dollars/ton to 700 dollars/ton; unbleached pulp Jinxing remained at 620 dollars/ton; hardwood pulp Mingxing rose 20 dollars/ton to 570 dollars/ton [7][8] - **Industry Data**: In October, the shipment volume of chemical pulp from 20 world pulp - producing countries decreased 3.5% year - on - year, softwood pulp decreased 7.1% year - on - year, and hardwood pulp decreased 1.9% year - on - year, with a significant decline in shipments to the Chinese market. In October 2025, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased 10.2% month - on - month and 6.5% year - on - year. In November 2025, pulp imports were 324.6 million tons, a 24% month - on - month and 15.9% year - on - year increase. As of December 4, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.0429 billion tons, a 0.09% month - on - month increase [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: Downstream base paper prices had narrow adjustments, with processing cost pressure remaining. The spot transaction center of cultural paper remained stable, and social demand was still limited. Due to the strong pulp and weak paper situation and short - term capital speculation, it is advisable to wait and see [8] 2. Industry News - On December 3, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment solicited opinions on the revised draft of the "Catalogue for the Classification Management of Environmental Impact Assessments of Construction Projects". Compared with the 2021 version, there are 56 first - level categories, 199 second - level industry categories, and 4 general processes after the revision. The second - level industry categories increased by 30. The "paper products manufacturing" is no longer in the catalogue, which is a major benefit for the base paper processing industry and will expand paper consumption. The opinion - soliciting period ends on January 5, 2026 [9] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, copperplate paper and offset paper prices and price differences, white cardboard and whiteboard paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources are mainly Wind and Zhuo Chuang Information [15][17][19]