Core Viewpoint - The cotton market is experiencing fluctuations, with the main Zheng cotton contract showing a slight increase of 0.52% after initially declining, driven by expectations of reduced planting area and concerns over future supply constraints [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The anticipated decrease in domestic planting area for the new year has heightened market concerns regarding future supply shortages, providing strong support for cotton prices [1] - Despite the expected abundant cotton yield this year, supply pressure remains, compounded by the traditional off-season for the textile industry, leading to weak new orders from weaving factories [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - Domestic textile enterprises are facing significant pressure, as the rise in cotton prices has not been matched by an increase in downstream yarn prices, resulting in squeezed profits for yarn manufacturers [1] - The motivation for textile companies to replenish raw materials is weakening due to these profit pressures [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, Zheng cotton is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short term, driven by a combination of strong expectations and strong realities, which differs from previous purely expectation-driven trading [1] - The likelihood of turning positive expectations into negative outcomes is lower this time, and there are still favorable policy developments anticipated in the future [1]

经济观察网据央视新闻客户端消息，记者今天(12月31日)从国家发展改革委了解到，多部门印发《再生 材料应用推广行动方案》，其中明确： 提升再生材料供给保障能力；推动汽车制造应用更多再生材料，提高电器电子产品再生材料应用水平， 加大电池生产中再生材料应用力度，鼓励纺织、包装等生产企业应用再生材料。到2030年，我国废弃物 循环利用体系进一步健全，再生材料推广应用等标准和认证体系逐步建立。 ...

金猴数字化智能制鞋工厂只是威海高新区产业升级浪潮中一个缩影，同样深度发展智能化的还有威海君奥电气有限公司。企业自主研发工艺管理系统，同 步导入ERP系统，实现仓储环节数字化精准管理。 丛晓伟表示，高效的主控系统将智能机器人与MES系统深度联动，针对性破解了车间订单排产、任务跟踪、数据汇总等长期存在的痛点难题，真正实现 生产全流程可追溯、产品质量全周期有保障的智能化生产模式。 齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点记者田佳玉通讯员谢菁 帮脚刷处理剂机器人涂刷均匀无外溢、帮脚胶水机器人高速均匀刷胶……12月5日，在金猴集团威海鞋业有限公司数字化车间，高速运转的全自动生产线 上，11台机械臂围绕鞋坯灵活作业。而过去，这些环节高度依赖工人的手感和经验。 去年年末，金猴数字化智能制鞋工厂顺利完成试产。"我们联合意大利研发的胶粘类制鞋流水线，引入了国际顶尖的机械手、圆盘注射等智能设备，工作 人员只需在电脑中预设参数，机械臂即可精准完成帮脚打粗、涂胶等关键工序。"金猴集团鞋业公司设备部部长丛晓伟介绍，智能设备模拟人工操作手 法，不仅将单双鞋成型时间从20分钟压缩至4分钟，更实现人工成本降低30%以上、生产效率提升30%的成效。 "管理人员在办 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 31 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏强 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多，轻仓过节 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 触底返弹 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines strategic opportunities and challenges for China's economic and social development, emphasizing high-quality growth and a focus on various key sectors [2][3]. Economic Opportunities - The plan identifies numerous new opportunities, including the development of a modern industrial system and the strengthening of the real economy, with specific mentions of sectors such as mining, metallurgy, chemicals, and advanced technologies [3]. - The goal is to achieve significant results in high-quality development, with economic growth maintained within a reasonable range and an increase in domestic consumption driving economic growth [2][3]. Economic Challenges - Challenges include unbalanced development, insufficient effective demand, and pressures on employment and income growth, which need to be addressed to convert challenges into opportunities [4]. - The plan sets a target for per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, requiring an average annual GDP growth of approximately 4.17% from 2025 to 2035 [4]. Consumer Income and Spending - The plan aims to increase residents' income through various channels, including wage, operational, property, and transfer income, with a focus on enhancing the share of labor remuneration in national income distribution [7][11]. - There is an emphasis on improving the structure of income distribution to promote a more reasonable allocation of income among residents [7]. Investment and Consumption - The plan suggests that increasing government spending on social welfare and implementing direct consumer support policies will enhance residents' consumption capacity [8][11]. - The importance of stabilizing the stock market to increase residents' property income and subsequently boost consumption is highlighted [14]. Capital Market Development - The stability of the capital market is crucial for enhancing investor confidence and ensuring sustainable income growth, which in turn affects consumer behavior [14][15]. - Encouraging long-term funding sources for technological innovation is essential for fostering a robust capital market and supporting economic growth [15][18]. Technological Innovation and Global Competitiveness - The plan emphasizes the need for China to cultivate high-quality listed companies with international competitiveness, particularly in the technology sector, to participate in global competition [18]. - The focus is on creating a favorable investment environment for companies to grow and attract long-term capital into the market [18].

该危机可能威胁约130万个非洲就业岗位，尤其是轻工业领域。尽管美国国会两党支持延期至2028 年，但特朗普政府仅倾向于延期一年，并可能将南非排除在外。南非约占AGOA进口总额的一半，其汽 车产业尤为关键，一旦被剔除，将冲击相关产业并影响美国关键矿产供应链。 在此背景下，AGOA的不确定性正削弱美国在非洲的战略布局。非洲拥有丰富的钴和铂族金属资 源，对美国新能源和国防产业至关重要。这一局势凸显了加快推进非洲大陆自由贸易区（AfCFTA）的 必要性。该市场覆盖14亿人口、规模达3.4万亿美元，是非洲实现贸易自主与长期增长的关键路径。 目前，AfCFTA已就92%以上税则项目达成原产地规则协议，跨境支付系统（PAPSS）也已在多个 国家运行。但专家指出，其全面成效仍需5至10年才能显现。作为AfCFTA秘书处所在地，加纳亟需展 现更强的政治意愿，推动区域一体化进程，将非洲大陆市场转化为可持续增长动力。 （原标题：AGOA动荡或使非洲贸易格局重构） 据"加纳广播公司"12月29日报道，美国已启动将《非洲增长与机遇法案》（AGOA）延期三年的程 序。该法案已于2025年9月30日到期，美众议院筹款委员会警告称，若长期失 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 时值年末，各方就来年各方面工作做出部署，要点如下： 2、财政： 1）政策基调 ：12月27日，全国财政工作会议召开，提出： 一是扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力 度（去年为"提高财政赤字率，加大支出强度、加快支出进度"）。二是优化政府债券工具组合，更好 发挥债券效益（去年为"安排更大规模政府债券"） ……五是加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。 2）债务分配： 12月24日，全国人民代表大会常务委员会预算工作委员会关于2025年财政预算事项备 案审查工作情况的报告提出，" 提出新增专项债额度进一步向项目准备充分、投资效率较高、资金使 用效益好的地区倾斜，用于支持地方政府隐性债务化解的专项债额度分配要统筹考虑地方化债压力和 风险化解需要，以及尽早下达债务限额等建议 "。 3）债务： 12月22日，财政部、央行、金融监管总局发布关于地方政府债务风险问题的整改情况，"紧 盯'变形走样'化债行为，指导金融机构支持融资平台化债"，"将把不新增隐性债务作为'铁的纪律'，严 格地方政府违规举债终 ...

Core Insights - The offshore RMB has officially broken the "7" mark against the USD for the first time since October 2024, indicating a significant shift in the currency's trend [1][2] - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to both external factors, such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift, and strong internal economic fundamentals [3] External Factors - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts have led to a weakening of the USD, contributing to the RMB's rise [3] - The RMB's appreciation is also supported by China's economic resilience, with a notable trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in the first eleven months of the year [4] Corporate Impact - Importing companies benefit from the RMB's appreciation, as it reduces procurement costs. For instance, a large manufacturing firm estimates saving 10 million RMB monthly due to favorable exchange rates [5] - Conversely, export-oriented companies face pressure on profit margins due to the stronger RMB, necessitating a reassessment of order feasibility [5] - Over 30 A-share companies have announced plans to engage in foreign exchange hedging to mitigate risks associated with currency fluctuations [5] Consumer Impact - The appreciation of the RMB has tangible benefits for consumers, particularly for families planning to study abroad, as it reduces the cost of tuition significantly [6] - Travel and shopping costs for overseas consumers are also decreasing, enhancing the affordability of international experiences [7] Policy Stance - Financial regulatory bodies emphasize maintaining the RMB's stability at a reasonable level, with recent meetings reinforcing the need for market resilience and preventing excessive fluctuations [8] Future Outlook - Market analysts express cautious optimism regarding the RMB's future, with expectations of continued strength in the short term [9] - Predictions for 2026 suggest a moderate appreciation trend, with estimates indicating the RMB could approach the 6.9 mark by year-end [9]

Core Viewpoint - The "Action Plan" for the Yangtze River Delta aims to establish a model for ecological protection and green development, marking a significant step towards building a "Beautiful China" [1] Group 1: Green Development - The plan emphasizes the deep integration of digitalization, intelligence, and greening in traditional industries such as petrochemicals, steel, and textiles to enhance production efficiency and reduce emissions [2] - Achieving standardized shore power facilities at regional docks will help reduce fuel emissions from ships during port stays, improving air quality [2] - The overall elimination of National III diesel trucks in the region is expected to significantly lower exhaust emissions in the transportation sector, contributing to better air quality [2] Group 2: Ecological Protection - The Yangtze River Delta faces challenges like water pollution despite its rich water resources; enhancing water ecological protection and restoration is crucial for sustainable development [3] - The plan sets targets for improving water ecological environments, with the construction rate of beautiful rivers and lakes reaching 44% and beautiful bays over 40% [3] Group 3: Reform and Innovation - The expansion of pollutant trading pilot programs is aimed at incentivizing companies to reduce emissions through market mechanisms, enhancing resource allocation efficiency [3] - Exploring financial support models for beautiful city construction will provide funding for ecological protection and green development projects, addressing funding shortages [3] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - The plan acknowledges challenges in regional collaborative governance, particularly in breaking down administrative barriers for deeper cooperation [3] - Traditional enterprises may face pressures related to technological upgrades and funding during the green transition, necessitating supportive government policies [3] Group 5: Overall Impact - The implementation of the "Action Plan" is expected to yield significant results in ecological protection and green development, positioning the Yangtze River Delta as a pioneering and exemplary region for "Beautiful China" initiatives, offering replicable experiences for other areas [4]

但如果你再往下一层看，就会发现另一组完全不同的现实，工业企业利润在下滑，传统出口行业普遍承 压，很多企业"忙了一年，账却不好看"。 人民币对美元再次站上"7"以内，贸易顺差首次突破1万亿美元，乍一看，这像是所有宏观叙事里最让人 安心的组合：货币稳、出口强、国家账面漂亮。 现实情况是，人民币对美元确实保持了相对稳定甚至偏强的走势，但与此同时，对欧元、日元以及不少 新兴市场货币，却呈现出明显的阶段性走弱。这种"分裂式"表现，本身就说明了一点：这不是一次简单 的市场自发波动，而是一种更具方向性的调节结果。 这不是数据打架，也不是谁算错了账，而是一场已经开始、但尚未完成的结构性换轨。真正的变化，往 往就藏在这种"不舒服"里。 在这种情况下，如果人民币对所有货币同步走强，反而会直接压缩出口企业的价格空间。于是我们看到 的，是一种更精细的状态，对美元稳住金融预期，对非美货币留出贸易弹性。 更关键的是，中国出口结构本身已经发生变化。很多人依然停留在"低端制造"的旧印象里，但现实是， 电子设备、机械、化工等核心出口行业，大量使用的是进口零部件和原材料。当人民币相对稳定甚至偏 强时，这些以外币计价的中间品成本反而会下降，形成天 ...