Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the significant achievements of China's manufacturing and shipbuilding industries during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, showcasing advancements in technology and production capabilities that contribute to national strength and economic development [1][5][7]. Shipbuilding Industry - The successful construction of the second domestically produced luxury cruise ship, "Aida Huacheng," reflects China's growing capabilities in shipbuilding, with delivery expected by the end of 2026 [3]. - The shipbuilding sector has seen a 1:14 multiplier effect on related industries, involving over 500 global suppliers in the design and construction of cruise ships [3]. - The launch of the domestically produced aircraft carrier Fujian marks a new height in China's naval equipment capabilities [5]. Manufacturing Sector - China's total industrial output value increased from 31.3 trillion yuan to 40.5 trillion yuan, while manufacturing output rose from 26.6 trillion yuan to 33.6 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7]. - The manufacturing sector's contribution to global growth exceeds 30%, with its output accounting for nearly 30% of global manufacturing [7]. - Innovation has been a driving force, with R&D spending in large manufacturing enterprises exceeding 1.6% of revenue [7]. Advanced Manufacturing - The average annual growth rates for equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing are 7.9% and 8.7%, respectively, with new energy vehicle production surpassing 13 million units last year [9]. - Traditional industries still dominate, accounting for 80% of key manufacturing metrics, emphasizing the need for transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing [9][12]. Smart Manufacturing - The integration of digital and physical economies is exemplified by Nanjing Steel's smart factory, which utilizes AI for efficient production and cost reduction [11][12]. - Over 35,000 basic-level smart factories and 1,260 5G factories have been established, with industrial robots accounting for over 50% of global installations [14]. Specialized Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) - The number of specialized and innovative SMEs has exceeded 140,000, contributing significantly to employment and economic vitality [21]. - These SMEs are crucial for enhancing supply chain resilience and driving high-quality economic development [19][21]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen over 100,000 new specialized SMEs, with a focus on innovation and quality [21].

Economic Sentiment and Housing Market - The central bank's survey reveals a significant disconnect between GDP growth and the economic sentiment of ordinary people, particularly regarding housing prices [1][3] - By the end of Q2, only 8.9% of respondents expected housing prices to rise, a sharp decline from 36.5% in Q2 2018, while 21.7% anticipated a drop in prices [3][5] - The lack of confidence in personal income growth has led to the lowest net increase in household debt since 2012, as individuals are hesitant to borrow for housing purchases [3][5] Consumer Behavior and Corporate Challenges - Rising income and employment pressures have resulted in a historical peak in household savings, driven by fear of future uncertainties rather than interest earnings [5][9] - Despite a 5.3% GDP growth in the first half of the year, business owners generally perceive the economy as weak, with only 0.6% feeling optimistic about their business prospects [5][9] - Over 30% of businesses reported losses, leading to cash flow issues and a reluctance to hire, exacerbating employment market pressures [5][9] Fiscal Deficits and Structural Issues - The fiscal deficit reached a record high of 5.25 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, surpassing the U.S. deficit for the same period [9][10] - Tax revenue growth has stagnated, dropping from an average of nearly 9% annually (2012-2018) to just 0.09% since 2019, primarily due to struggling businesses [10][12] - Local governments are increasingly relying on non-tax revenue, which has risen to 19.6% of total revenue, indicating a growing fiscal imbalance [12][14] Long-term Economic Concerns - The declining birth rate, projected to fall below 1, poses a long-term threat to economic growth and housing demand, mirroring Japan's experience with population decline [7][9] - The reliance on land sales for local government revenue has diminished, with land income in the first half of the year at only 41% of the same period in 2021 [14][16] - The increasing visible debt of local governments, which rose by 8.34 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, reflects a reliance on borrowing to maintain fiscal stability [14][16] Reform and Recovery Strategies - Comprehensive reforms in the fiscal and tax systems are essential to address the underlying issues, including transitioning from indirect to direct taxation [16][18] - The government aims to create a more stable income source for local authorities, reducing dependence on land sales and non-tax revenues [16][18] - Investments in social welfare and public services are crucial for restoring consumer confidence and stimulating economic activity [20][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price fluctuations of steel futures will increase due to the seasonal improvement in steel demand and the strong spot prices of raw materials like iron ore and coke, but the uncertainty of trade conflicts has sharply increased. The secondary rebound of steel prices in the future market will be more volatile. It is expected to trade with a relatively controllable shock logic on October 13th, and the decline caused by the realization of risks is unclear. There will be a restorative rebound near the end of the month. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade war will escalate again, the internal profit trend of the industrial chain after steel profits reach the break - even point again, and whether the iron ore supply gap worried by the market will appear in the spot market [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review** - On October 15th, the main contracts 2601 of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated and declined, hitting new lows since July 3rd and July 11th respectively in the afternoon. The prices of some rebar and hot - rolled coil in the spot market also fell. The daily KDJ indicators of rebar and hot - rolled coil 2601 contracts continued to decline, and the daily MACD green columns continued to expand [5][6][8]. - The table shows the price, trading volume, and position of steel futures main contracts on October 15th, as well as the position of black - series futures. For example, the closing price of RB2601 was 3034 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.85%, and the trading volume was 1,018,136 lots [5][7]. - **Future Outlook** - In terms of news, after China's counter - measures, the US authorities first threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China and then lowered the expectation and tone of the Sino - US trade conflict. There are also unconfirmed news about the procurement of imported iron ore from BHP. The follow - up rebound of iron ore futures depends on the result of the game between the two sides and the real recovery of steel terminal demand [9][10]. - Fundamentally, the weekly output of the five major steel products in the past six weeks has declined compared with late August but remains at a relatively high level. After the demand reached a new high since early June in the week of October 3rd, it significantly shrank last week due to the long holiday, and the social inventory of the five major steel products reached a new high since mid - April. In the raw material market, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills and the imported ore sinter powder inventory of 64 sample steel mills have significantly declined. The shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has increased, and the arrival volume has also increased significantly. The profit per ton of coke has turned positive after three consecutive weeks of losses, and the first round of spot price increase of coke was implemented on October 1st [10][11]. 3.2 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang chaired an economic situation symposium, emphasizing the implementation of more proactive and effective macro - policies to promote economic recovery, and proposed measures such as expanding domestic demand and building a first - class industrial ecosystem [12]. - In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) showed that the year - on - year decline narrowed, and some industries' prices showed positive changes. For example, the price decline of coal processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries narrowed [13]. - According to statistics, in September 2025, the sales volume of various excavators increased by 25.4% year - on - year. From January to September, the total sales volume increased by 18.1% year - on - year [13]. - Hebei Province issued measures to support key industries' environmental performance to reach level A, and steel industry leading enterprises may not reduce crude steel production or reduce the reduction ratio [13]. - Shanxi Coking Coal Group and Hunan Iron and Steel Group held a symposium to strengthen cooperation in the "coal - steel - coke" industry chain [13]. - Some companies released production and sales data. For example, Lu'an Huaneng's coal production in September 2025 increased by 6.06% year - on - year, and Zhonglv Electric's power generation in the third quarter increased by 86.46% year - on - year [14]. - The first coal - to - natural - gas project in Northeast China achieved a breakthrough, and the first - phase project was fully connected [14]. - The freight volume of Tongjiang Railway Port exceeded 5 million tons 46 days earlier than last year, with significant increases in coal and iron ore imports [14]. - China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the US 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding industry, and relevant Chinese departments will launch investigations and include some enterprises in the counter - measure list [14]. - BHP will settle 30% of the amount in RMB in iron ore spot transactions with China starting from the fourth quarter of 2025, and will initiate long - term contract negotiations in RMB if the market acceptance of the Chinese RMB iron ore index reaches the standard [15]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the forecast of global economic growth rate for this year to 3.2%, and maintained the forecast of China's economic growth rate at 4.8% this year [15]. 3.3 Data Overview - There are multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and inventory of the five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and January contracts. The data sources are mainly Mysteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [17][18][21][28][32][36].

Group 1 - The EU's recent decision to significantly increase tariffs on steel imports is perceived as a targeted action against China, despite not explicitly naming it [4][10][22] - The EU's steel industry struggles are attributed more to internal issues such as high energy costs and outdated production lines rather than foreign competition [5][20] - The timing of the EU's tariff announcement, shortly after Trump's global tariff declarations, suggests a political motive rather than purely economic considerations [8][10][22] Group 2 - China's immediate response to the EU's tariffs was to implement export controls on rare earth materials, which are crucial for various modern industries [10][11][15] - The EU relies heavily on China for rare earth imports, and any restrictions could severely impact its industrial capabilities, particularly in the electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors [11][20] - The ongoing trade tensions reflect a critical juncture in China-EU relations, with the EU's actions potentially undermining its own industrial interests while trying to align with U.S. policies [22][24] Group 3 - The EU's approach to trade with China is characterized by a struggle between wanting to assert strategic autonomy and the influence of U.S. policy directions [10][24] - The economic interdependence between China and the EU is significant, with daily trade amounts reaching $2 billion, indicating that any trade disruptions could have widespread consequences [17][20] - The current trade disputes may ultimately harm the EU's industrial reputation and economic stability, as retaliatory measures from China could lead to production halts in key sectors [20][22]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Steel (SH 600022) anticipates a significant improvement in its operating performance for the first three quarters of 2025, projecting a total profit of approximately 632 million yuan, an increase of about 2.196 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of around 140 million yuan, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.591 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - The main reasons for the performance improvement include value creation, operational transformation, efficiency enhancement, cost reduction, and effective collaboration [1] Cost Management - Shandong Steel has implemented a rigorous cost control strategy, achieving a reduction of over 60 yuan per ton of steel [1] - The company emphasizes a three-tier cost management approach to deepen operational efficiency [1] Revenue Composition - For the year 2024, the revenue composition is projected to be 87.27% from the steel industry and 12.73% from other businesses [1] Market Capitalization - As of the report, Shandong Steel's market capitalization stands at 16.8 billion yuan [1]

Core Points - The Argentine government has temporarily eliminated export taxes on aluminum, steel, and their derivatives, effective until the end of 2025 [1] - This exemption applies to metal products exported to countries that previously imposed at least 45% import tariffs on such goods [1] - The decision aims to enhance export capacity and improve the competitiveness of the domestic production sector, reflecting Argentina's intention to adopt a more open trade policy [1] Summary by Category Export Policy - The export tax exemption is valid until December 31, 2025, or until the relevant countries reduce their tariffs below 45%, whichever comes first [1] - This measure follows a previous temporary cancellation of export taxes on soybeans, corn, wheat, and their by-products in September, which aimed to accelerate overseas sales and stabilize the weakening peso [1] Economic Impact - The government emphasizes that the decision is part of a broader strategy to boost exports and attract foreign currency [1] - The earlier measure on agricultural products was short-lived, lasting less than a week, indicating potential volatility in trade policy [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed may further ease monetary policy this year, which has an impact on various financial and commodity markets [1][11]. - During the National Day holiday, the cross - regional passenger flow in China increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and Chinese equity assets rose slightly but underperformed globally [2]. - The supply side is the key factor affecting the price trends of various commodities, and different commodities face different supply and demand situations [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump announced that Israel and Hamas signed the first phase of the peace plan, and the Fed's meeting minutes indicated that further easing might be appropriate this year [10][11]. - Gold prices rose to a record high of $4059 and then fell back, increasing by about 5% during the holiday due to risk - aversion sentiment. Short - term, the positive factors are fully priced, and there is a risk of a pullback [11]. - Investment advice: Be cautious of the risk of a decline due to long - position profit - taking after the price hits a new high [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Macron plans to appoint a new prime minister, Trump said Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on hostage release and troop withdrawal, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting minutes showed internal differences on the number of interest - rate cuts [13][14][15]. - The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term, and the market's risk appetite continues to rise [16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will remain volatile in the short term [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Meta and Apple are about to reach a settlement with the EU Commission on antitrust cases, and the US Senate rejected the bipartisan temporary appropriation bill again [19][20]. - The Fed's meeting minutes showed internal differences among officials, but the market's optimistic sentiment towards AI and interest - rate cuts remains high, and the market is expected to remain strong [21]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to maintain a strong trend after a small adjustment [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's Ambassador to the US called for expanding China - US cooperation, and the cross - regional passenger flow during the National Day holiday increased by 6.2% year - on - year [23][24]. - Chinese equity assets rose slightly during the holiday but underperformed globally. The market is still in a structural pattern, and the rhythm is more important than the position [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market is in a structural pattern, and rhythm is more important than position [26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, and the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 2422 billion yuan [27][28]. - The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the first half of October and may strengthen after the 14th Five - Year Plan policies are implemented [28]. - Investment advice: The bond market is expected to fluctuate and bottom out in the short term. Short - term trading should be cautious, and medium - term long positions can be considered on dips [28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is about to start the B50 road test [29]. - During the holiday, Malaysian palm oil led the rise in the overseas oil market. The market predicts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline slightly in September [30]. - Investment advice: The domestic market is expected to make up for the rise after the holiday, but be cautious of a pullback after a high opening. In the long - term, go long after the clear signal of production reduction in the producing areas in the fourth quarter [30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The safety inspection in the Ordos steam coal market remains strict, and the coal price is expected to remain weak seasonally in October [31]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain weak in October, and pay attention to the policy game after the long - term agreement price [31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Japan's Nippon Steel and Champion Iron are promoting the Kami iron ore project [32]. - During the holiday, the iron ore price fluctuated narrowly around $104. The downstream finished - product market was weak, and the iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [32][33]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In September, China's soybean imports and crushing volume decreased month - on - month, and the US soybean old - crop inventory as of September 1 was lower than expected [34][35]. - The Brazilian soybean sowing progress reached 8.2% as of October 4. The CBOT soybean price rose slightly during the holiday. The US government shutdown suspended the release of relevant reports [37]. - Investment advice: The soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate temporarily, and Sino - US relations are the main influencing factor [37]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The EU plans to impose a 50% tariff on steel imports outside the quota [40]. - During the holiday, the overseas metal prices rose slightly, and the steel price is expected to rise slightly after the holiday, but the inventory accumulation during the holiday will suppress the spot price. Pay attention to the terminal demand [40]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a range - bound mindset after the holiday and pay attention to the demand intensity [41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The red date price in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market was stable, and the futures price of the main contract CJ601 fell [42]. - The supply in Xinjiang is normal, and the demand in the north - south distribution areas is stable. The new - season output and old - crop inventory are still being debated [42]. - Investment advice: Hold a wait - and - see attitude or conduct short - term operations in the short term, and pay attention to the fruit development in the producing areas and downstream consumption [42]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The ICSG predicts that the global copper mine production will increase by 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, and there will be a supply surplus in 2025 and a shortage in 2026 [43][44]. - Teck Resources lowered its copper production forecast for its Chilean flagship mine, and Aurubis raised the European copper premium for 2026 [45][46]. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - position strategy unilaterally, and pay attention to the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [47]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The resumption of production of a small lead - zinc mine in Fujian was postponed to the end of October [48]. - The supply of lead has improved, and the demand is stable. The Shanghai lead price may fluctuate upward [50]. - Investment advice: Go long on dips unilaterally and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the monthly spread [50]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - 29Metals withdrew its zinc production guidance due to an earthquake, and the resumption of production of a small lead - zinc mine in Fujian was postponed to the end of October [51][52]. - The LME zinc price is supported, and the domestic zinc export window may open. The inventory is expected to rise after the holiday [53]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude unilaterally, and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity brought by the opening of the export window [53]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The expansion project of Xinjiang Dongfang Hope New Energy Co., Ltd.'s polysilicon plant is under environmental protection acceptance [54][55]. - The polysilicon price may remain flat, and the component price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [55][56]. - Investment advice: The market may fluctuate widely between 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton in October. Pay attention to the range - bound operation opportunities [57]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The SASAC called for抵制 "involution - style" competition [58]. - The inventory of industrial silicon is expected to accumulate slightly in September - October and decrease slightly in November - December [59]. - Investment advice: It is more cost - effective to go long on dips, but be cautious when chasing the price [59]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia will re - implement the annual RKAB system in 2026 [60]. - During the holiday, the LME nickel price was strong. The nickel ore price is expected to rise, and the nickel iron and intermediate product prices are expected to remain strong, but the refined nickel inventory is under pressure [61]. - Investment advice: Conduct range - bound trading in the short term, and go long at low levels from a configuration perspective [62]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Saudi Arabia's October CP official prices fell, and the US C3 inventory decreased [63][64]. - The PG price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. Pay attention to the start - stop changes of PDH plants after the import cost drops [64]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the start - stop changes of PDH plants after the import cost drops [64]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia will gradually increase oil production, and the US EIA crude oil inventory increased [65][66]. - International oil prices rebounded after falling during the holiday. The release of supply by oil - producing countries is the key factor affecting the price [66]. - Investment advice: The decline of oil prices depends on whether the supply of oil - producing countries can be effectively released [67]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export prices of bottle chip factories were mostly stable, with some slight decreases [68][69]. - The polyester raw material prices fell, and the bottle chip prices were under pressure. The demand is expected to be weak in the long term [70]. - Investment advice: The absolute price of bottle chips is at a low level, and the inventory of factories has decreased. Pay attention to the sustainability of production cuts and new capacity launches [70]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk said that the freight volume from China to Latin America and Africa has increased [71]. - During the National Day holiday, the spot index fell below 1050, and the short - term market may be weak. Pay attention to the low - buying opportunities after the over - decline of the 12 - contract [71]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the low - buying opportunities after the over - decline of the 12 - contract [72].

Group 1 - Fushun Special Steel held its first temporary board meeting on September 29, 2025, to discuss the election of the chairman and other documents [1] - For the year 2024, Fushun Special Steel's revenue composition is as follows: 98.69% from the steel industry, 1.26% from other businesses, and 0.05% from the service industry [1] - The current market capitalization of Fushun Special Steel is 10.4 billion yuan [2]

Economic Performance - The PPI growth rate is expected to continue to rise slightly in the short term, but the momentum for recovery is slowing down, with an anticipated year-end PPI growth rate unlikely to exceed -2%[2][40] - In September, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 11.39% compared to August, with a year-on-year growth of 10.91%[11][12] Industrial Demand and Supply - The rebar production rate decreased to an average of 42.21% in September, down 1.65 percentage points from August, indicating a slowdown in industrial demand[17][18] - The average price of rebar fell by 1.88% year-on-year, while inventory levels rose by 7.59% compared to August, suggesting a supply-demand imbalance[18] Export and Trade - Exports are expected to face marginal pressure, particularly due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, with a notable "rush to export" behavior observed in the first half of the year[3][40] - From January to August 2025, Xinjiang's total foreign trade value reached 356.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%[3][40] Consumer Behavior - The inbound tourism sector is showing robust growth, with tax refund sales increasing by 97.5% year-on-year in the first eight months of the year, indicating a conversion of inbound flow into consumer spending[27][41] - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased by 1.98% year-on-year, reflecting sustained consumer activity despite a slight month-on-month decline[23][24] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts and the possibility that policy effects may not meet expectations[4]

Core Insights - The Canadian steel and related manufacturing industry has experienced significant declines in both output and export volumes due to the ongoing impact of high U.S. tariffs [1] Output Summary - Since the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum in March, the output of Canada's steel and iron alloy manufacturing sector decreased by 24.8% in July compared to February [1] - Following the increase of the tariff rate to 50% in June, the industry saw a monthly output contraction of 19.1% in July, marking the largest monthly decline of the year [1] Export Summary - In July, the export volume of unrefined steel and iron alloys from Canada fell by 25.5% compared to February [1] - Exports of basic and semi-finished steel products experienced an even more substantial decline, dropping by 34.4% compared to February [1]