Report Overview - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Market Performance Summary 1.1 Futures Market - On October 16, the main contracts of coke (J2601) and coking coal (JM2601) futures showed a strengthening trend after fluctuations, recovering most of the losses since September 29. The closing price of J2601 was 1,672.5 yuan/ton, up 2.26%, with a trading volume of 21,965 lots and a position of 42,547 lots (a decrease of 314 lots), and a capital inflow of 0.16 billion yuan. The closing price of JM2601 was 1,185.5 yuan/ton, up 3.36%, with a trading volume of 981,288 lots and a position of 623,751 lots (an increase of 21,901 lots), and a capital inflow of 5.61 billion yuan [5]. 1.2 Spot Market - On October 16, the spot market prices of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port were all 1,520 yuan/ton, with no change. The prices of low - sulfur main coking coal in different regions such as Tangshan, Lvliang, and Linfen also remained stable [8]. 2. Technical Analysis - On October 16, the daily KDJ indicators of both the coke and coking coal 2601 contracts showed golden crosses. The green bars of the daily MACD of the coke and coking coal 2601 contracts have been narrowing for 2 consecutive trading days [8]. 3. Market Outlook 3.1 News - On October 16, steel mills in Guangdong such as Zhongnan Iron and Steel, Yangchun New Iron and Steel, and Yufeng Iron and Steel issued price - support notices. Sichuan De Sheng and Dazhou Iron and Steel also sent letters to agents to resist the low - price dumping of speculators. - After China's counter - measures in restricting the export of medium and heavy rare earth - related raw materials, equipment, and technology and charging special port fees for US - related ships, the US authorities threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China, but on October 13, they lowered the tone of the Sino - US trade conflict. - BHP has reached an important agreement with Sinomine Resource Group and some Chinese steel manufacturers and traders. Starting from the fourth quarter of 2025, 30% of the amount in BHP's iron ore spot transactions with China will be settled in RMB [10]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **Coke**: As of last week, the coke production of independent coking plants has been slightly declining for 4 consecutive weeks after reaching a new high since late May. The coke production of steel mills has increased significantly after reaching a new low since August 2023 in early September, but the growth rate has narrowed. Port coke inventory has rebounded slightly after falling to a new low since mid - July, while steel mill inventory has started to decline after reaching a new high since late May. Coking plant inventory has rebounded from a new low since late October last year. The profit per ton of coke has turned profitable after 3 consecutive weeks of losses, and the first round of spot price increases for coke was implemented on October 1 [11]. - **Coking Coal**: From January to August, the year - on - year decline in China's coal and lignite imports narrowed by 0.8 percentage points to - 12.2%, and the year - on - year decline in coking coal imports slightly narrowed to - 7.6%. As of last week, the inventory of clean coal and raw coal in mines has dropped significantly in the past 16 weeks, with overall declines of 60.8% and 36.4% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has significantly declined from a new high since the end of January, and the inventory of steel mills has declined for 2 consecutive weeks to a new low since late June. Port inventory has rebounded to the level of late July. With the significant inventory reduction of coking plants after restocking, the prices of the main coking coal spot market have continued to be strong [11]. 3.3 Comprehensive Outlook - Geopolitical factors have increased market volatility, but the fundamentals of the coke and coking coal spot markets have supported the futures market. The overall trend of coke and coking coal futures is oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - US relations, changes in the supply of the iron ore spot market, the path of steel profit recovery, and the differences in the re - inflation rhythm of precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and energy and chemical commodities caused by macro - asset allocation [12]. 4. Industry News - According to the latest data from the State Tax Administration, in the first three quarters, the high - quality development of the manufacturing industry continued to advance, with sales revenue increasing by 4.7% year - on - year, accounting for 29.8% of the national corporate sales revenue. The high - end transformation of the manufacturing industry advanced rapidly, with the sales revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry increasing by 9% year - on - year, accounting for 46.9% of the manufacturing industry. In particular, the sales revenue of industries such as computer and communication equipment and industrial mother machines increased by 13.5% and 11.8% respectively year - on - year [13]. - Multiple companies released announcements, including power generation, coal production, and performance forecasts. For example, in the third quarter of 2025, Huaneng International's on - grid power generation decreased by 3.67% year - on - year; Shaanxi Energy's coal production in the third quarter increased by 17.83% year - on - year; Chongqing Iron and Steel expects to reduce losses by 1.12 - 1.14 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 compared with the same period last year [14]. - Shanxi's provincial - owned enterprises have built 137 intelligent coal mines, with advanced coal production capacity accounting for 95%. Enterprises such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Jinneng Holding are piloting the construction of "zero - carbon" mines [14]. - The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Three - Year Action Plan for Cultivating and Improving the National Advanced Manufacturing Cluster of Southern Jiangsu Special Steel Materials (2025 - 2027)". By 2027, the output value of the cluster's leading industries is expected to reach 1 trillion yuan, the output of special steel and high - end alloys will reach 35 million tons, the R & D investment intensity will be close to 4%, and a series of goals in innovation and enterprise cultivation will be achieved [15]. - On October 14, the US Trade Representative Office (USTR) officially implemented a revised port fee policy, significantly reducing the port fees for Chinese - flagged and Chinese - operated vessels, which alleviated the potential impact on the US coal export industry [15]. 5. Data Overview - The report also presents multiple charts related to the coke and coking coal markets, including spot price indices, production, inventory, and basis, with data sources from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][21][22][29][30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The steel market, particularly rebar, is experiencing weakened demand and price fluctuations due to ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector, leading to increased inventory pressure and a lack of significant improvement in demand [1][2]. Group 1: Rebar Market Dynamics - The traditional peak season for rebar, known as "Golden September and Silver October," has diminished, with inventory levels during the National Day holiday exceeding historical averages [1]. - Rebar prices are showing weak fluctuations, while raw material prices remain strong, indicating a lack of negative feedback in the supply chain [1]. - Steel mills are implementing production control measures to alleviate inventory pressure, resulting in lower rebar production levels this year [1]. Group 2: Hot Roll and Steel Billet Risks - The main risks for hot-rolled steel in Q4 include a decline in domestic demand and pressure on exports, with downstream orders for cold-rolled galvanized products shrinking [2]. - Hot-rolled steel inventory levels are higher than the same period last year, indicating potential oversupply [2]. - Steel billet exports have surged, reaching a historical high of 1.76 million tons in August, but production profits are now negative, raising concerns about future output [2]. Group 3: Raw Material and Cost Dynamics - High pig iron production is supporting raw material prices, with coal and iron ore prices outperforming finished steel since August [3]. - Rebar production profits are currently low, with long-process profits below 100 yuan per ton and short-process profits around -100 yuan per ton [3]. - The cost support for rebar remains intact due to healthy fundamentals in the raw material sector, despite the lack of significant upward momentum in rebar prices [3]. Group 4: Macro Factors and Market Sentiment - The market is closely monitoring macroeconomic factors, including upcoming political meetings and monetary policy decisions, which could influence rebar prices [3]. - There is a notable contradiction between weak demand and strong cost support for rebar, but the situation has not yet reached a level of negative feedback that would significantly impact prices [3]. - Overall, the rebar market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend, with caution advised regarding potential volatility due to changing market expectations [3].

Core Viewpoint - BHP, Australia's largest iron ore giant, faces a critical business threat as China halts all US dollar-denominated iron ore purchases, impacting over 100 billion AUD in annual revenue [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - China demands that any resumption of iron ore trade must be conducted in RMB, marking a significant shift in trade practices [3]. - The iron ore trade has been dominated by the Platts index and US dollar settlements, positioning China as a "price taker" despite being the largest buyer [6]. - The establishment of China Mineral Resources Group in 2022 has unified procurement efforts among Chinese steel companies, enhancing negotiating power [6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Alternatives - China is diversifying its supply sources, with companies like Vale in Brazil already accepting RMB for iron ore purchases [8]. - New mining projects, such as the Simandou mine in Guinea, are set to produce significant quantities of iron ore, further reducing reliance on Australian imports [8]. - The proportion of iron ore imported from Australia by China has decreased by 12 percentage points in the first eight months of 2025 [8]. Group 3: Pricing Mechanisms - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore futures, priced in RMB, have a trading volume over 20 times that of the Singapore market, establishing a new pricing benchmark [9]. - The "Beijing Iron Ore Index," based on actual transaction data, is emerging as a competitor to the Platts index [9]. Group 4: Currency Settlement Implications - The suspension of purchases in September 2025 represents China's first public stance in this pricing power struggle, putting BHP's reliance on the Chinese market at risk [11]. - The shift to RMB settlements allows Chinese companies to avoid exchange rate risks and save billions in currency conversion costs [13]. - The trend of RMB settlements is growing, with 45% of Sino-Russian iron ore trade and 28% of Vale's transactions with China now conducted in RMB [15]. Group 5: Broader Economic Impact - The increasing use of RMB in commodity trading is challenging the dominance of the US dollar, providing a replicable model for de-dollarization in various sectors [15]. - The share of RMB settlements in global metal trade has risen from 2.1% in 2020 to 9.2% by the third quarter of 2025, indicating a rapid acceleration of this trend [15].

Market Overview - The Chinese asset market experienced a collective pullback, with the A-share market declining significantly after a strong opening on the first trading day post-holiday. The Shanghai Composite Index fell approximately 1% to below 3900 points, while the ChiNext Index dropped over 5% before slightly narrowing its losses at the close [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased by 137.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day, totaling 253.45 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector saw a substantial decline, with companies like Aojie Technology and Dongxin Co. dropping over 10%, and SMIC falling nearly 8% [2][3] - Conversely, resource sectors such as gas, coal, steel, and oil experienced gains, with companies like Dazhong Public Utilities and Hongtong Gas hitting the daily limit up [2][7] - The coal sector is expected to see improved performance in Q3 due to rising coal prices, with potential further increases in Q4 as winter demand rises [8] Semiconductor Sector Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent adjustment in the semiconductor sector is a short-term fluctuation driven by profit-taking, rather than a fundamental shift in the industry's long-term growth prospects. The trend of domestic substitution remains a key focus [3][5] - Domestic wafer fabs are progressively establishing high levels of localization, particularly in advanced storage, with expectations for stable expansion needs through 2025 and rapid growth anticipated by 2026 [5] Brokerage Sector Dynamics - The brokerage sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Guosen Securities reaching their daily limit. The sector's growth is supported by favorable policies, improved market confidence, and a shift towards high-value-added services [9][10] - The current environment is seen as enhancing the brokerage sector's profitability outlook, making it an attractive investment opportunity [10]

Core Viewpoint - The number of low-priced stocks in the A-share market has significantly decreased, with only 30 stocks closing below 2 yuan as of October 9, compared to nearly 100 a year ago, indicating a market trend towards higher quality stocks and the impact of regulatory reforms [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Overview - As of October 9, there are 30 stocks in the A-share market with closing prices below 2 yuan, a decrease of nearly 70% compared to the same period last year [2] - Among these 30 low-priced stocks, 5 are ST stocks and 8 are *ST stocks, accounting for over 40% of the total [2] - The reduction in low-priced stocks is attributed to the natural result of a rising market and the deepening of delisting and registration system reforms [2][3] Group 2: Performance of Low-Priced Stocks - Nearly 70% of the 30 low-priced stocks reported losses in the first half of the year, with 22 stocks showing negative net profits [4] - *ST Jinkang reported the highest loss, with a net profit of approximately -75.23 billion yuan, marking a decline of 85.28% in revenue [4] - The real estate sector has the highest number of low-priced stocks, totaling 8, followed by the construction and decoration sector with 4 [4] Group 3: Specific Company Analysis - Yongtai Energy has the largest decline in net profit among the few profitable stocks, with a net profit drop of 89.41% to approximately 1.26 billion yuan [6][7] - The company attributes its performance decline to falling coal prices and reduced power generation due to maintenance [7] - Yongtai Energy has implemented measures such as stock buybacks and cash dividends to support its stock price, but it still struggles to reflect its actual value in the market [8]

Core Viewpoint - The successful commissioning of the 110 kV substation by Lanxin Steel Group marks a significant milestone for its 1.2 million tons coking project and associated high-value utilization of coke oven gas, aligning with national strategies for carbon neutrality and industrial modernization [2][4]. Group 1: Project Details - The 1.2 million tons coking project is expected to produce 1.2 million tons of metallurgical coke, 80,000 tons of LNG, 100,000 tons of synthetic ammonia, and 40 million standard cubic meters of hydrogen annually [2]. - The project is projected to generate an additional industrial output value of 5 billion yuan and create over 1,000 jobs [2]. Group 2: Service and Support - State Grid Lanzhou Power Supply Company has prioritized this project, forming a dedicated service team to meet the company's needs and providing comprehensive support [4]. - The company optimized the process from a serial to a parallel approach, ensuring safe power supply and facilitating the project's timely launch [4][7]. Group 3: Future Plans - Moving forward, State Grid Lanzhou Power Supply Company aims to focus on local key industry development needs, enhancing tailored services for individual enterprises and optimizing power supply processes [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: In Q3, influenced by coal production cuts, coking coal drove up the black - metal price center. However, steel prices were not strong due to weak demand. In August, domestic real - estate and infrastructure investment declined, and manufacturing investment growth weakened. Although coal supply interference persisted, steel and raw materials did not move in tandem, and Q4 had significant macro - policy disturbances. In September, steel apparent demand seasonally recovered, and high exports digested production, leading to inventory reduction. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with rebar between 3100 - 3350 yuan and hot - rolled coil between 3300 - 3500 yuan. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options [1]. - Iron Ore: As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a downward - fluctuating trend. Supply - side: last week, global iron ore shipments decreased, and 45 - port arrivals increased. Future arrivals are expected to first rise and then fall. Demand - side: steel mill profit margins slightly declined, but molten iron production increased, and steel mills' restocking demand grew. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient in the peak season, with raw materials stronger than finished products. Port inventories increased, and the dredging volume decreased, while steel mills' equity ore inventories rose. In the future, molten iron production will remain high in October, and low port inventories support iron ore prices, but beware of port inventory accumulation risks in Q4. Iron ore is in a balanced - to - tight situation, but weak finished products drag down raw materials. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a range of 750 - 830. Short the iron ore 2601 contract on rallies, and recommend the spread strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [4]. - Coke: As of the previous day's close, coke futures showed a weak downward trend, with a divergence between spot and futures prices. Mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, and port trade quotes fluctuated with futures. On the spot side, after the second price cut by mainstream steel mills on September 15, prices rebounded on September 25. It is expected that the spot price of coke will gradually rebound, with 2 - 3 rounds of increases possible. On the supply side, rising coking coal prices led to some coke enterprises' losses and reduced production. On the demand side, steel mills continued to resume production, and molten iron production increased slightly. In terms of inventory, coking plants and ports reduced inventory, while steel mills increased inventory. The market is mainly trading pre - holiday restocking progress and future supply - demand changes. Due to rising coking coal costs and high molten iron production, the futures price has already priced in potential price increases. Speculate by shorting the coke 2601 contract on rallies, with a range of 1550 - 1750, and recommend the spread strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke [6]. - Coking Coal: Yesterday, coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend, with a divergence between spot and futures prices. Spot auction prices generally rose, and Mongolian coal quotes followed the futures up and then down. The domestic coking coal market is running strongly, with improved downstream procurement willingness and better market transactions. On the supply side, main - producing area coal mines continued to resume production this week, logistics improved, and coal mines sold at discounted prices. Imported Mongolian coal prices rose, and the border port will be closed for 7 days during the National Day holiday. On the demand side, molten iron production continued to rise, and coking plant operations were stable, with increased downstream restocking demand. In terms of inventory, mines and ports reduced inventory, while ports, coal - washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills increased inventory. After significant restocking, downstream restocking demand will decline, and coking coal prices may peak and fall. Short the coking coal 2601 contract on rallies, with a range of 1150 - 1300, and recommend the spread strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 yuan, and futures prices for 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 16, 17, and 17 yuan respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 yuan, and futures prices for 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 22, 3, and 24 yuan respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Costs: Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar cost increased by 1 yuan, and Jiangsu converter rebar cost decreased by 1 yuan [1]. - Profits: East China rebar profit increased by 1 yuan, North China rebar profit increased by 11 yuan, South China rebar profit increased by 11 yuan. East China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 1 yuan, North China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 1 yuan, and South China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 1 yuan [1]. Production - Daily average molten iron production increased by 1.0 to 242.0, a 0.4% increase. Five - major steel product output increased by 9.4 to 864.9, a 1.1% increase. Rebar output remained unchanged at 206.5, with electric - furnace output decreasing by 4.0 to 22.7 (- 15.0%) and converter output increasing by 4.0 to 183.7 (2.2%). Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.3 to 324.2, a - 0.7% decrease [1]. Inventory - Five - major steel product inventory decreased by 9.1 to 1510.6, a - 0.6% decrease. Rebar inventory decreased by 14.0 to 636.3, a - 2.1% decrease. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.5 to 380.5, a 0.7% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 0.4 to 11.0, a - 3.3% decrease. Five - major steel product apparent demand increased by 23.7 to 874.1, a 2.8% increase. Rebar apparent demand increased by 10.4 to 220.4, a 5.0% increase. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 0.1 to 321.7, a 0.0% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs: Costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines decreased by 4.4, 7.7, 5.4, and 8.6 respectively, with decreases of - 0.5%, - 0.9%, - 0.6%, and - 1.0% [4]. - 01 contract basis: The basis of Carajás fines increased by 1.6 to 56.7 (2.9%), while the basis of PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines decreased by 1.7, 2.6, and 2.6 respectively, with decreases of - 4.0%, - 1.2%, and - 4.9% [4]. - Spread: 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 19.5 (2.6%), 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1.5 to - 41.0 (- 3.8%), and 1 - 5 spread increased by 1.0 to 21.5 (4.9%) [4]. Supply - 45 - port weekly arrivals decreased by 314.5 to 2360.5, a - 11.8% decrease. Weekly global shipments increased by 150.6 to 3475.4, a 4.5% increase. Monthly national imports increased by 61.5 to 10522.5, a 0.6% increase [4]. Demand - 247 steel mills' weekly average daily molten iron production increased by 1.4 to 242.4, a 0.6% increase. 45 - port weekly average daily dredging volume decreased by 2.8 to 336.4, a - 0.8% decrease. Monthly national pig iron output decreased by 100.5 to 6979.3, a - 1.4% decrease. Monthly national crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9, a - 2.9% decrease [4]. Inventory - 45 - port weekly inventory increased by 69.3 to 14000.28, a 0.5% increase. 247 steel mills' weekly imported ore inventory increased by 427.0 to 9736.4, a 4.6% increase. 64 steel mills' weekly inventory available days increased by 2.0 to 24.0, a 9.1% increase [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained at 1200, and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained at 1613. Coke 01 and 05 contracts decreased by 46, with decreases of - 2.7% and - 2.5% respectively. 01 and 05 basis increased by 46 [6]. - J01 - J05 spread remained at - 143. Steel - union coking profit decreased by 11 to - 64 [6]. Supply - Full - sample coking plant average daily output decreased by 0.4 to 66.3, a - 0.6% decrease. 247 steel mills' average daily output increased by 1.3 to 242.4, a 0.6% increase [6]. Demand - 247 steel mills' molten iron output increased by 1.4 to 242.4, a 0.6% increase [6]. Inventory - Total coke inventory increased by 5.2 to 920.4, a 0.6% increase. Full - sample coking plant coke inventory decreased by 3.4 to 63.0, a - 5.1% decrease. 247 steel mills' coke inventory increased by 16.6 to 661.3, a 2.6% increase. Steel mills' available days increased by 0.2 to 11.7, a 2.1% increase. Port inventory decreased by 8.0 to 196.1, a - 3.9% decrease [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - Coke supply - demand gap decreased by 1.2 to - 4.6, a - 27.1% decrease [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained at 1270, and Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) decreased by 5 to 1160, a - 0.4% decrease. Coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decreased by 43 and 42 respectively, with decreases of - 3.6% and - 3.3% respectively. 01 and 05 basis increased by 38 and 37 respectively. JM01 - JM05 spread decreased by 1 [6]. - Sample coal mine profit increased by 31 to 452, a 7.4% increase [6]. Supply - Fenwei sample coal mine raw coal output increased by 4.1 to 876.6, a 0.5% increase. Clean coal output increased by 1.4 to 452.0, a 0.3% increase [6]. Demand - Full - sample coking plant average daily output decreased by 0.4 to 66.3, a - 0.6% decrease. 247 steel mills' average daily output increased by 1.3 to 242.4, a 0.6% increase [6]. Inventory - Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory decreased by 10.0 to 104.7, a - 8.7% decrease. Full - sample coking plant coking coal inventory increased by 58.7 to 999.1, a 6.2% increase. 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory increased by 5.7 to 796.1, a 0.7% increase. Steel mills' available days increased by 0.2 to 12.9, a 1.2% increase. Port inventory decreased by 16.7 to 265.5, a - 5.9% decrease [6].

Carbon Neutrality Policy - China announced a new round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) at the UN Climate Change Summit on September 24, aiming for a 7%-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared to peak levels, with non-fossil energy consumption exceeding 30% of total energy consumption [1][2] - The NDC outlines commitments to enhance forest carbon storage to over 24 billion cubic meters and to make new energy vehicles the mainstream of new vehicle sales, while establishing a national carbon trading market covering major high-emission industries [1][2] Carbon Market Development - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment emphasized the importance of a unified national carbon market, which has become a key mechanism for carbon pricing and achieving carbon neutrality goals [3] - The national carbon market has been operational for four years and is seen as a core driver for carbon peak and neutrality initiatives, with plans to enhance market vitality and expand coverage [3] Extreme Weather and Climate Adaptation - Extreme weather events, including high temperatures and heavy rainfall, are becoming the new normal, posing challenges for meteorological warnings and disaster prevention [4][5] - The need for a dual approach of "mitigation + adaptation" is highlighted, with recommendations for improving climate resilience, especially in rural areas [4][5] Corporate Practices - Chongqing plans to establish over two municipal-level battery recycling industrial bases by 2027, aiming for a 90% coverage rate of the battery recycling network across districts and counties [6] - The policy aims to optimize the layout of battery recycling projects and promote technological upgrades to address industry pain points [6] Local Developments - Hitachi Energy provided a 200 MVA electric arc furnace transformer to support Baosteel's decarbonization efforts, marking a significant advancement in the steel industry's green transition [7] - The transformer, the largest of its kind in China, utilizes next-generation technology to enhance operational efficiency and support the industry's shift towards low-carbon solutions [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6] 2. Core Views Steel - Steel supply and demand have increased month - on - month, with the apparent demand of five major steel products rising to 8.74 million tons and inventory starting to decline. The supply - demand gap has narrowed. Considering high steel exports, seasonal improvement in demand, and a positive macro - environment, steel prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory range. The recommended operation is to try long positions with a light position and hold short positions on the January hot - rolled coil and rebar spread [1] Iron Ore - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a strong oscillatory trend. Supply - side global shipments decreased week - on - week while port arrivals increased. Demand - side, steel mill profit margins slightly declined, but daily hot - metal production increased. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient for the peak season. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory also rose. Iron ore is in a tight - balance situation, with a recommended trading range of 780 - 850. The strategy is to go long on iron ore 2601 on dips and recommend an arbitrage of long iron ore and short coke [4][6] Coke - As of the previous day's close, the coke futures rebounded. Spot prices are expected to gradually rise, with a possible 2 - 3 round increase. Supply - side, rising coking coal prices led to some losses for coke enterprises and a decline in production. Demand - side, steel mills continued to resume production, and hot - metal production increased. Inventory - side, coke plants and ports reduced inventory, while steel mills increased inventory. The strategy is to go short on the coke 2601 contract at high levels in the range of 1650 - 1800 and recommend an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [6] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed little change, with some contract prices fluctuating slightly. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price increased by 3 yuan/ton to 3074 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets remained stable, while the cost of some steel products changed slightly. Profits of different steel products in various regions also changed, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 1 yuan to 143 yuan [1] Production - The daily average hot - metal production increased by 1.0 to 242.0, a 0.4% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 1.1% to 864 tons. The production of rebar remained unchanged, while the production of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.7% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.6% to 15.106 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 2.1% to 6.363 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7% to 3.805 million tons [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 12.9% to 104,000 tons. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 2.8% to 8.741 million tons, and the apparent demand of rebar increased by 5.0% to 2.204 million tons [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices of different iron ore varieties increased slightly, with the 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread decreasing by 2.4%, and the 9 - 1 spread increasing by 2.4% [4] Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrivals increased by 13.2% to 26.75 million tons, while the global weekly shipments decreased by 6.9% to 33.248 million tons. The national monthly import volume increased by 0.6% to 105.225 million tons [4] Demand - The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6% to 242.4 tons, and the 45 - port daily average unloading volume increased by 2.4% to 339.2 tons. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively [4] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.9% to 139.3097 million tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 3.5% to 93.094 million tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 9.1% to 24 days [4] Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal contract prices increased, with the coking profit decreasing by 11 yuan/ton and the sample coal - mine profit increasing by 4.2% [6] Supply - Coke production decreased by 0.6%, while coking coal production increased, with raw coal production increasing by 1.3% and clean coal production increasing by 1.8% [6] Demand - The hot - metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6%, and the demand for coke was supported [6] Inventory - Coke inventory increased slightly, with coke plants and ports reducing inventory and steel mills increasing inventory. Coking coal inventory also increased, with coal mines and ports reducing inventory and coke plants and steel mills increasing inventory [6]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the RB2601 contract fluctuated. The central bank announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on September 25, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan this month, a seventh consecutive month of increased roll - overs. The weekly output of rebar remained low with a capacity utilization rate of 45.26%. During the consumption peak season, inventory continued to decline and apparent demand increased. Overall, the steel market was mixed. With the approaching long - holiday, there would be a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and the market might range - bound. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were near the 0 - axis with shrinking green bars. Short - term trading was recommended, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - RB main contract closing price was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; RB main contract open interest was 1,870,449 lots, down 11,775 lots; RB contract top 20 net positions were - 171,227 lots, up 20,425 lots; RB1 - 5 contract spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; RB SHFE warehouse receipt daily report was 277,122 tons, up 7,616 tons; HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 191 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,426 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged. RB main contract basis was 173 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread was 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 789 yuan/wet ton, down 3 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 138.0422 million tons, down 489,100 tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 422,100 tons, down 15,500 tons [2] Industry Situation - The sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.449 million tons, up 112,900 tons; the Tangshan billet inventory was 1.225 million tons, up 7,700 tons. The 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate was 84%, up 0.15 percentage points; the 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.38%, up 0.18 percentage points. The sample steel mill rebar output was 2.0646 million tons, up 100 tons; the sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate was 45.26%, unchanged. The sample steel mill rebar inventory was 1.6441 million tons, down 6,600 tons; the 35 - city rebar social inventory was 4.7189 million tons, down 133,200 tons. The independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate was 67.71%, down 2.08 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1.518 million tons, down 23,000 tons; the net steel export volume was 901,000 tons, down 38,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.05, down 0.28; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 0.5%, down 1.1 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 12.9%, down 0.9 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 2%, down 1.2 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.43109 billion square meters, down 43.78 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 398.01 million square meters, down 45.95 million square meters; the commercial housing unsold area was 402.29 million square meters, up 3.07 million square meters [2] Industry News - On September 25, Mysteel reported that the actual rebar output was 2.0646 million tons, up 100 tons week - on - week; the mill inventory was 1.6441 million tons, down 6,600 tons; the social inventory was 4.7189 million tons, down 133,200 tons; the total inventory was 6.363 million tons, down 139,800 tons; the apparent demand was 2.2044 million tons, up 104,100 tons. Also, on September 25, rainfall affected 2 tailings ponds in Guangxi with over 100 mm of rain (0 "over - head" ponds), and 65 tailings ponds in Guangxi, Guizhou and Yunnan with 50 - 100 mm of rain (1 "over - head" pond) [2]