Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market with a net inflow of nearly 15 billion yuan, ranking first among 31 Shenwan primary industries [1] - The Huabao non-ferrous ETF (159876) saw its price surge over 5.1% during the day, with a current increase of 3.85% and a transaction volume of 181 million yuan, setting historical highs in both volume and price [1] - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has attracted a total of 569 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - On January 25, Luoyang Molybdenum Company completed the acquisition of a Brazilian gold mine, expected to produce 6 to 8 tons of gold this year, with strong profitability and a short investment return period [2] - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to maintain high profitability for an extended period, driven by sustained demand, and domestic companies are undervalued compared to their overseas counterparts [3] - The Huabao non-ferrous ETF has reached a new scale of 1.892 billion yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the non-ferrous metal index in the market [3] Group 3 - Several stocks in the non-ferrous sector, including Vanadium Titanium Co., Silver Nonferrous, and Hunan Gold, have hit the daily limit, with significant gains observed in other stocks like Luoyang Molybdenum and Shandong Gold [4] - The Huabao non-ferrous ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, and lithium, allowing investors to capture various market cycles [6]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/01/26 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2026/01/19 -340 5424 213515 152655 -1653.61 29.24 28.0 27.0 67.55 147425 48550 2026/01/20 -365 5109 213515 148193 -1773.40 -160.48 26.0 25.0 101.84 156300 47800 2026/01/21 -350 5002 213515 145581 -1047.36 -10.15 22.0 22.0 -29.11 159400 46825 2026/01/22 -350 4773 213515 143173 -498.98 -11.07 22.0 22.0 -82.84 168250 47100 2026/01/23 -350 5022 225937 146793 -590.48 192.15 22.0 22.0 -66.06 ...

关注供给扰动带来的板块机会 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 有色金属《波动不改上行趋势》2026.01.19 有色金属《从商品到战略资产》2026.01.12 有色金属《地缘局势增加供给不确定性》 2026.01.06 有色金属《金属行业继续共舞》2025.12.28 有色金属《工业金属的三连击》2025.12.21 股 票 研 究 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 刘小华(分析师) | 021-38038434 | liuxiaohua@gtht.com | S0880523120003 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wangh ...

Macro - The US Q3 real GDP was slightly revised up to 4.4%, marking the fastest growth in two years, with core PCE inflation stable at 2.9% [3] - The November PCE price index in the US showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and a month-on-month rise of 0.2%, aligning with expectations, indicating stable inflation and robust consumer spending [3] - The resilience of the US economy and stable job market have led to significant divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with low probability for a cut in January [3] - Tensions in Greenland have exacerbated rifts between the US and Europe, leading some European sovereign funds to sell US debt, raising concerns about "dollar credit" [3] Copper Market - Domestic TC quotes for copper concentrate remain at historical lows, maintaining tightness in the copper concentrate market, which is a strong support factor [4] - Estimated electrolytic copper production for January is 1.1636 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% but a year-on-year increase of 14.7% due to tight copper concentrate supply [4] - In December, net imports of refined copper in China fell by 48.44% year-on-year to 201,800 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 14.81% month-on-month to 239,000 tons [4] - As of January 23, global visible copper inventories increased by 54,000 tons to 1.091 million tons, with LME and Comex inventories also rising [4] - Despite high copper prices leading to weaker consumption, the market sentiment remains bullish, suggesting a volatile upward trend in copper prices [5][20] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Indonesian nickel ore premiums remain at $25.5 per wet ton, while Philippine nickel ore premiums are at $8.0 per wet ton [6] - January refined nickel production is expected to increase by 18.5% month-on-month to 37,200 tons, while Chinese nickel pig iron production is expected to decrease by 1% [6] - The demand for new energy materials has increased, with weekly ternary material production rising to 18,256 tons [7] - The Indonesian government has indicated a potential 10-15% decrease in nickel ore production compared to last year, which may impact market dynamics [8] Aluminum Market - Alumina futures are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract settling at 2,724 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1% [9] - The average operating rate of processing enterprises has increased by 0.7% to 60.9% as downstream sectors prepare for the upcoming Spring Festival [10] - Inventory levels for alumina and aluminum ingots have shown mixed trends, with alumina inventories decreasing while aluminum ingot inventories are increasing [10][11] - The market sentiment is supported by pre-holiday stocking, but the sustainability of price rebounds remains uncertain due to ongoing production cuts [11][26] Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon futures are showing strong fluctuations, with a weekly increase of 2.5% [27] - The production of polysilicon has decreased, with P-type prices down to 48,000 yuan/ton and N-type down to 55,000 yuan/ton [28] - Supply disruptions in regions like Sichuan and Yunnan are raising concerns about future production levels [29] - The market is expected to face pressure from high inventory levels and potential demand saturation, despite short-term support for polysilicon prices [29] Lithium Carbonate - Weekly lithium carbonate production has decreased by 388 tons to 22,217 tons, with various sources of lithium showing declines [30] - Demand for ternary materials has increased, with production rising to 18,256 tons, while inventory levels have also increased [30] - Concerns over supply disruptions in Jiangxi and rising costs due to overseas tax policies are influencing market dynamics [31] - The market is expected to experience strong price fluctuations in the short term, with a focus on downstream performance and inventory movements [31]

Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence in views among international investment banks regarding copper prices indicates a potential volatility in the non-ferrous metal sector, with some institutions optimistic while others express caution [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts a bullish outlook for copper, forecasting a price of $12,500 per ton by Q2 [2] - UBS shares a similar optimistic view, projecting a year-end price of $13,000 [2] - Citigroup also maintains a positive stance, expecting prices to exceed $13,000 in Q2 [2] - Conversely, Goldman Sachs advises caution, suggesting a potential drop to $11,000 per ton in December [2] - Capital Economics leans towards a bearish outlook, indicating a possible price decline [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Copper prices surged from $11,000 in early December to over $13,300, surpassing some optimistic forecasts [3] - Goldman Sachs warns that the current high prices have attracted speculative investments, which may suppress short-term actual consumption [5] - The speculative enthusiasm for copper is linked to concerns over potential tariffs following the U.S. Section 232 investigation, which led to significant imports of refined copper [6] Group 3: Long-term Demand Drivers - The fundamental narrative supporting copper prices revolves around its role as a "green metal" and "AI metal," driven by global infrastructure upgrades, electric vehicle adoption, and AI data center construction [7] - The ongoing demand for copper is expected to remain strong, as long as the underlying growth story persists [7] - The non-ferrous metal ETF funds track A-share listed companies rather than futures prices, meaning the performance of mining and refining companies will directly benefit from rising copper prices [7][8] Group 4: Investment Considerations - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund tracks a diversified index, with copper comprising 33% of the index, followed by aluminum and gold, indicating a balanced exposure to various metals [8] - Given the current global economic landscape and rising risk aversion, the non-ferrous metal ETF fund is expected to maintain a strong investment rationale throughout the year [8]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 周四，美国至 1 月 17 日当周初请失业金人数 20 万人，预 期 21 万人，前值由 19.8 万人修正为 19.9 万人。美国第三季度 实际 GDP 年化季率终值 4.4%，预期 4.30%，前值 4.30%。美 国第三季度实际个人消费支出季率终值 3.5%，前值 3.5%。美 国第三季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率终值 2.9%，预期 2.9% ，前值 2.90% 。美国 11 月核心 PCE 物价指数月率 0.2%，预期 0.20%。美国 11 月个人支出月率 0.5%，预期 0.50%。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续 突破历史新高 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 8.30%至 4,983.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 14.80%至 103.26 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上 涨 8.07% 至 1,115.64 元 / 克 ，SHFE 白银上涨 11.04% 至 24,965.00 元/千克。 本周金银比下跌 5.66%至 48.26。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 27,574.43 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Beta factor and valuation factor achieved positive returns of 0.66% and 0.48% respectively, while the market capitalization factor recorded a negative return of -0.80%, indicating a small-cap market performance [5] - The quant stock selection strategy yielded significant excess returns, with the PB-ROE-50 combination achieving excess returns of 1.38%, 2.54%, and 4.23% for the CSI 500, CSI 800, and the overall market respectively [5] Group 2: REITs Market - The secondary market prices of publicly listed REITs in China showed an upward trend, with the CSI REITs closing at 806.72 and the CSI REITs total return index at 1047.51, reflecting weekly returns of 2.09% and 2.17% respectively [5] - Compared to other major asset classes, the return rates ranked as follows: Gold > Convertible Bonds > REITs > A-shares > Crude Oil > Pure Bonds > US Stocks [5] Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - The 2025 annual report from the banking industry indicated an increase in the scale of wealth management products by nearly 3.3 trillion, achieving a year-on-year increase despite a high base [6] - "Fixed income +" wealth management products have become a significant growth point, while the average yield on wealth management products has dropped below 2% [6] - The proportion of wealth management products in deposit asset allocation rose to 28.2%, with the market share of wealth management companies exceeding 90% [6] Group 4: Copper Industry Analysis - The TC spot price reached a new low, indicating continued tightness in copper concentrate procurement, while cable manufacturers' operating rates increased week-on-week [8] - Despite the rise in copper prices, domestic social inventory continues to grow, which may suppress demand [8] - The outlook for 2026 remains optimistic with a tight supply-demand balance expected to support copper prices [8] Group 5: Chemical Industry Trends - The price of spandex has seen a significant increase of 1000 yuan/ton due to pressure from losses, marking a turning point in the spandex market [8] - Spandex prices have dropped from a historical high of 83,750 yuan/ton in 2021 to 23,600 yuan/ton in early January 2026, representing a decline of 72% [8]

行情数据显示，现货白银涨超7%,最高报约103美元/盎司。现货黄金一度上涨1%,最高报约4988美元/盎 司。伦铜一度上涨3.4%,达到13187.50美元/吨,接近本月早些时候创下的历史新高。伦锡上涨9.5%。伦镍 上涨4.2%。 西南证券金属研究团队建议把握四条主线:一是分母端扩张:黄金中长期看多方向较一致,把握交易节奏, 主要关注美联储降息预期和贸易战边际变化。金银比价较高,带来白银上涨动能较大,白银标的也应重点 关注。二是分子端改善:2025年氧化铝下跌带来电解铝单位盈利明显改善,吨铝盈利或将继续维持较高位 置,但是也应警惕短期需求走弱带来的价格回落,铜铝都是如此。三是稀土等关键优势矿产,稀土、锑、钨 板块或有更好表现。四是反内卷带来供给侧的扰动机会,碳酸锂板块周期反转。 公司方面，据上证报表示， *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 山东黄金：公司持续增储扩产,2023年以来进行了多项股权和探矿权收购,大幅增加了公司的资源储备。 兴业银锡：旗下银漫矿业为国内最大的白银生产矿山之一,锡精矿产量全国排名第二位,宇邦矿业单体银 矿储量排名位列亚洲第一位。 ...

要点 本周小结： 2026 年供需偏紧仍支持铜价上行。截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 101340 元/吨，环比 1 月 16 日+0.57%；截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，LME 铜收盘价 13129 美元/吨，环比 1 月 16 日+2.54%。（1）宏观：市场对美联储 2026 年 1 月不降息已经基本定价。（2）供需：TC 现货价续创新低，显示铜精 矿现货采购依然紧张；线缆企业开工率本周环比回升，但国内社会库存继续增长， 铜价大涨对需求有压制；但展望 2026 年，供需依然偏紧，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+2.9%，LME 铜库存环比+16.9%。（1）港口铜精矿库存： 截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 71.9 万吨，环比上周+4.1%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，全球三大交易所库存合计 96.0 万吨，环比 1 月 16 日+6.2%。截至 1 月 22 日，LME 铜全球库存 17.2 万吨，环 比+16.9%；SMM 铜社会库存 33.0 万吨，环比 1 月 16 日+2.9%。截至 ...

有色金属 2026 年 1 月 25 日 有色金属周报 避险情绪发酵，贵金属价格冲高 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 25/01 25/04 25/07 25/10 26/01 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 核心观点： 贵金属-黄金：避险情绪发酵，贵金属价格冲高。截至 1.23，COMEX 金主力合约达 4983.1 美元/盎司，环比上涨 8.3%。SPDR 黄金 ETF 环比增加 0.1%为 1087 吨。美国宣布向反对美国得到格陵兰岛的欧洲 国家加征关税。此外，欧洲方面还在考虑抛售美债。美元信用削弱趋 势短期加速抬升，避险情绪发酵下，黄金等贵金属价格上涨。长期来 看美国债务问题未解，美元信用走弱的主线逻辑持续，央行购金以及 黄金投资需求增长，贵金属价格重心或仍将继续抬升。 工业金属：看好工业金属上涨行情。 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 行 业 报 告 告 行 业 报 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编 ...