行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 相关研究 - 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 07 日 供应格局趋紧，工业金属价格大幅 上行 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251201-20251205 本期投资提示： 行 业 点 评 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 有色金属 、 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37% ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and rare earths, indicating high market activity and potential for growth [12][33][34]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton on LME, with domestic prices rising by 6.12% to 92,800 yuan per ton, driven by supply constraints and high demand [1][13]. - Aluminum prices rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton on LME, with domestic prices up 3.4% to 22,300 yuan per ton, reflecting stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [2][14]. - Gold prices decreased by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and market volatility, while SPDR gold holdings increased [3][15]. - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxide, rose by 2.79%, with expectations of increased demand due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][34]. - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the outlook remains positive due to anticipated recovery in exports [4][35]. - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, supported by low inventory levels and supply disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar [4][36]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton, with domestic prices at 92,800 yuan per ton [1][13]. - Supply constraints are evident with a decrease in copper inventory and processing fees [1][13]. - Downstream demand is weakening due to high prices, leading to a decline in new orders [1][13]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton, with domestic prices at 22,300 yuan per ton [2][14]. - Inventory levels remain stable, but processing rates have decreased slightly [2][14]. - Demand is cautious due to high prices affecting transaction volumes [2][14]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fell by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, with geopolitical factors influencing market dynamics [3][15]. - SPDR gold holdings increased, indicating a slight uptick in investor interest [3][15]. Rare Earths - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices increased by 2.79%, with expectations of higher demand due to supply constraints [4][34]. - Export conditions are improving, contributing to a positive outlook for the sector [4][34]. Antimony - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to potential export recovery [4][35]. Tin - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, driven by low inventory levels and supply disruptions [4][36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that copper prices are on the rise due to macroeconomic catalysts and significant inventory reductions in China. The prices of copper in London, Shanghai, and New York have increased by 5.74%, 6.12%, and 3.33% respectively. The report suggests that the copper supply-demand balance may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage in the medium to long term, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions [4][23] - The aluminum sector is also experiencing upward price movement, with aluminum prices rising by 3.28% to 22,215 CNY/ton. The report indicates that while alumina prices are under pressure, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow, potentially leading to a shortage next year [4][36] - Lithium prices are under short-term pressure due to seasonal demand declines and supply recovery expectations, with carbonate lithium prices dropping by 0.53% to 93,250 CNY/ton. However, the report anticipates a demand-driven upward cycle for lithium prices in the future [4][79] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to a tight raw material supply, with MB cobalt prices increasing by 1.05% to 24.15 USD/pound. The report notes that the supply chain disruptions in the Democratic Republic of Congo are likely to maintain upward price pressure [4][91] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report indicates that the U.S. manufacturing PMI for November was 48.2, below expectations, and the ADP employment figures also fell short, suggesting a cooling economy [8] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector shows a significant increase, with the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.98 percentage points [10][11] 2. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have seen significant increases, with London copper up 5.74% and Shanghai copper up 6.12%. The report notes a decrease in Shanghai copper inventory by 9.22% [20][23] - Aluminum prices are also rising, with a reported increase in aluminum profits by 11.02% to 6,220 CNY/ton, despite a slight decline in alumina prices [36][50] - Lead and zinc prices have increased, with lead prices up 1.10% and zinc prices up 1.54%. However, the report notes that smelting margins for lead are negative [50][62] 3. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are experiencing short-term adjustments, with carbonate lithium down 0.53% to 93,250 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices have increased slightly [79] - Cobalt prices are on the rise, with domestic cobalt prices increasing by 1.97% to 414,000 CNY/ton, supported by tight supply conditions [91][103]

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/12/05 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...

每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 展望后市，信达证券指出，当期支撑流动性牛市的基础依然坚实，后续可能有盈利全面改善和资金 流入共振拉长牛市时间。战略上，业绩空窗期、经济数据偏弱和海外市场调整均可能带来市场宽幅震荡 过程中的波动。但年底到明年初仍可以布局政策或资金积极变化带来的上行机会。未来一年市场短期的 波动可能来自监管政策和供给放量速度，需要关注监管政策变化对市场的影响。流动性牛市的核心基础 是股市供需结构扭转，如果股权融资规模放量速度很快，股市供需格局再次转弱，那么市场也存在波动 加大的可能。 A500ETF基金（512050）助力投资者一键布局A股核心资产，把握A股估值抬升红利。该ETF具有 费率低（综合费率仅0.2%）、流动性好（近一月日均成交额超50亿元）、规模大（规模超200亿元）等 核心优势。其跟踪中证A500指数，采取行业均衡配置与龙头优 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

资料显示，洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司位于河南省洛阳市栾川县城东新区画眉山路伊河以北，成立 日期1999年12月22日，上市日期2012年10月9日，公司主营业务涉及主要从事钼、钨及黄金等稀贵金属 的开采、选冶、深加工、贸易、科研等。生产所需原辅材料、机械设备、仪器仪表、零配件的进口(上 述进出口项目凭资格证书经营)。金属贸易。主营业务收入构成为：精炼金属产品贸易48.56%，精矿产 品贸易38.31%，铜27.14%，钴6.04%，钼3.12%，磷2.23%，铌1.88%，钨1.17%，其他(补充)0.11%。 洛阳钼业所属申万行业为：有色金属-工业金属-铜。所属概念板块包括：铌概念、有色铜、钴镍、黄金 股、稀缺资源等。 来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 12月5日，洛阳钼业盘中上涨2.01%，截至09:43，报18.26元/股，成交7.52亿元，换手率0.24%，总市值 3906.60亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出5502.77万元，特大单买入1.26亿元，占比16.74%，卖出1.70亿元，占比 22.60%；大单买入1.60亿元，占比21.31%，卖出1.71亿元，占比22.76%。 洛阳钼业今年以来 ...

黄金方面：近期美联储降息的预期有所升温，美元维持偏弱运行。一方面是美国总统极有可能在近期宣布新一任美联储主席， 甚至暗示哈赛特就是主席人选；另一方面，日本央行极有可能在12月加息，美元弱势将限制金价跌幅。 本文出自百利好 转载请注明 原油方面：原油价格近期恐将延续震荡调整。从地缘政治方面看，俄乌谈判出现反复，甚至仍然有陷入僵局的风险；同时委内 瑞拉极有可能爆发实质性冲突，这将对油价形成支撑。 不过原油供给过剩的风险依旧存在，当前原油库存水平有所升高，即使欧佩克明年第一季度暂停减产，但其产量仍然维持在较 高水平；美国的产量也在历史新高附近；从需求端看，美国近期公布的经济数据偏弱势，恐将对需求不利，供给过剩的担忧依 旧限制油价上行空间。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情收较长下影线K线，显示下方有一定的支撑。指标上看，行情站上20日均线，后续存在进一 步走高的机会。日内关注上方61美元一线压力，下方关注58.50美元一线支撑。 铜方面：日线上，近期铜价较为强势，整体维持偏强运行。指标上看，20日均线和62日均线形成金叉，后续行情延续强势将是 大概率事件。日内关注行情回调测试下方5.23美元一线支撑情况。 日经22 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading opportunities for A - share index futures are limited due to low trading volume and volatility [2]. - The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September, and the allocation value of bonds within 10 years is relatively improved. The 30 - year bonds may be oversold under emotional drive. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees [2]. - Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits [2]. - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - For steel, it is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage. Iron ore is in high - level consolidation, and coking coal and coke are also in a consolidation state [2]. - Copper prices are rising again, and aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for various non - ferrous metals [2][3]. - For new energy and chemical products, different products have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited [3]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different market situations, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different trends, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share index futures have low trading volume and volatility, and the short - term trading space is limited. The dividend sector is firm, and the index futures are trading weakly [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September. The 30 - year bonds are relatively weak, and the short - term market driver may come from the policy expectation difference. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. The positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract is recommended for the spot - futures strategy [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits. Platinum and palladium should be traded with a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy, and the long - platinum and short - palladium hedge should take profits at high levels [2]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. It is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage and narrow the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment is increasing, the arrival is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. It is in high - level consolidation, with the range from 750 to 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The price reduction range of coal in the production area is expanding, and the price of Mongolian coal is stable. The futures price is falling again, with the range from 1050 to 1150, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts in December has been implemented, and the port trading price is falling. It is in a consolidation state, with the range from 1550 to 1700, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. Non - Ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The LME cancelled warehouse receipts are increasing significantly, and copper prices are rising again. The short - term decline space is limited [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for aluminum, waste aluminum, and aluminum alloy, with corresponding price ranges [2][3]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: For zinc, supply reduction and interest - rate cut expectations provide support, but the spot trading is dull [4]. For other non - ferrous metals such as tin, nickel, and stainless steel, different market trends and trading suggestions are provided [3]. New Energy and Chemical Sector - **New Energy**: Different new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as polysilicon futures rising while the spot price is stable [3]. - **Chemical Products**: Different chemical products have different market situations, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Different energy and chemical products such as LLDPE, PP, and methanol have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - Different agricultural products such as palm oil, sugar, and cotton have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 有色金属类 铜： 隔夜内外铜价大幅拉升，均创历史新高，国内精铜现货进口亏损扩大。宏观方面，美国11月ADP就业人 数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月以来最大降幅，劳动力市场疲软迹象正在显现；但美国11月份ISM服务业 PMI指数升至52.6，创九个月来新高，预期52.0，服务业指数受到供应商交付时间延长以及商业活动进 一步改善的支撑。国内方面，关注即将召开的中央经济工作会议。库存方面，LME库存增加350吨至 162150吨；Comex库存增加2127吨至393979吨；SHFE铜仓单下降1599吨至28969吨；BC铜仓单维系 4879吨。昨晚LME铜注册仓单大量转为注销仓单，被市场认为即将大量被提货的表现，佐证投资者对 未来铜价的看好，也凸显了LME库存紧张和全球显性库存结构性问题，成为内外铜价联袂创新高的理 由。当前来看，短期的宏观和基本面问题已然被精矿短缺、长协高升水和库存流动性问题所取代，市场 情绪也逐渐朝着外盘挤仓演进，表现或持续偏强，关注持续性。 镍&不锈钢： 隔夜LME镍涨0.92%报14875美元/吨，沪镍跌0.02%报117 ...