（编辑 姚尧） 证券日报网讯 2月9日，索通发展在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，2025年12月公司与阿联酋环球铝 业公司（EGA）签署合资协议，在阿联酋建设30万吨预焙阳极项目（一期），目前各项工作推进顺 利；公司与华峰集团合作的江苏32万吨项目、与华阳集团合作的山西20万吨项目，相关合作事宜也在有 序推进中。后续若有重要进展，公司将严格按照相关规定及时履行信息披露义务，具体信息请以公司发 布的公告为准。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors on metal prices, particularly in a tight supply-demand balance, with monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions being critical influences [1] - Recent adjustments in precious metal prices are attributed to a decline in risk appetite, influenced by disappointing earnings reports from US tech stocks and expectations of a strong dollar and Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction [1] - China's central bank continued gold purchases in January, and the increase in gold ETF holdings will support gold prices [1] Group 2: Copper - Ongoing macroeconomic pressures are impacting copper prices, with expectations of strategic reserves providing some support [2] - The establishment of a "copper concentrate strategic reserve" aims to enhance resource control and mitigate overseas supply disruptions, while AI-driven infrastructure demands are expected to support copper prices [2] - Despite macroeconomic pressures, copper prices are anticipated to stabilize due to strategic premium support [2] Group 3: Aluminum - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to a combination of macroeconomic factors and seasonal demand weakness, with a decline in processing rates observed [2] - The ISM services PMI in the US returned to expansion, but lower-than-expected ADP employment figures contributed to price fluctuations [2] - Social inventory trends indicate a continued accumulation during the off-season [2] Group 4: Tin - Tin prices are experiencing downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and reduced funding, but there is resilience in downstream purchasing as prices decline [2] - Increased activity in the Indonesian tin market and supply recovery in Myanmar may lead to marginally looser supply conditions [2] Group 5: Energy Metals - Demand for lithium remains strong despite a four-week inventory reduction, with expectations of preemptive battery demand due to changes in export tax policies [3] - The cobalt sector faces high prices due to tight raw material supplies, while companies are extending their reach into downstream markets to enhance competitive advantages [3] - Rare earth prices, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxides, are rising due to tight supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 6: Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are on the rise due to long-term contracts and supply-demand dynamics, with a notable increase in prices across the industry [3] - The uranium market is seeing long-term contract prices reach a ten-year high, driven by rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development [3]

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客 为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 23,540.00 | 环比 数据指标 +225.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 2,868.00 | +44.00↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | -165.00 197,639.00 | -60.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) -1843.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | -108.00 333,870.00 | +71.00↑ -7930.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 5 ...

Investment Themes - The report identifies several investment themes based on market trends, including "right-side breakout" for Huangjiu, soybeans, and epoxy propylene, which are showing sustained performance [4][10] - "Right-side trends" are noted in sectors such as photovoltaics, power IoT, target materials, new energy equipment, and aluminum, indicating ongoing positive momentum [4][10] - New themes showing signs of stabilization at the bottom include generic drugs, service robots, consumer finance, smart logistics, and electric vehicles [4][10] - Newly identified themes indicating a bottom reversal include lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium battery electrolytes, and mobile phone batteries [4][10] Right-Side Breakout Opportunities - The Huangjiu index has shown a 5% increase over 20 days, while the soybean index has experienced a 3% increase, indicating potential investment opportunities [11] - The epoxy propylene index has a 12% increase over 20 days, suggesting strong performance in the basic chemical sector [11] Right-Side Trend Opportunities - The photovoltaic index has shown a 13% increase year-to-date (YTD), indicating strong growth potential in the power equipment sector [13] - Other indices such as the BC battery index and the power IoT index have also shown positive trends with YTD increases of 17% and 9%, respectively [13] Bottom Stabilization Opportunities - The CAR-T therapy index and the generic drug index have shown signs of stabilization, with the latter having a 3-day performance of 0% [17] - The electric vehicle index has also stabilized, with a slight increase of 1% over 5 days, indicating potential for recovery [17] Bottom Reversal Opportunities - The mobile phone battery index has shown a 2% increase over 5 days, while the lithium hexafluorophosphate index has a 3% increase, suggesting a potential turnaround in these sectors [19] - The lithium battery electrolyte index has also shown a 3% increase, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [19]

每经AI快讯，焦作万方2月9日晚间发布公告称，焦作万方铝业股份有限公司（以下简称"焦作万 方"或"本公司"）于近日收到本公司持股 5%以上股东焦作市万方集团有限责任公司（以下简称"万方集 团"）《焦作市万方集团有限责任公司股权质押告知函》，结合中国证券登记结算有限责任公司下发变 动明细，获悉万方集团将其持有的本公司部分股份办理了质押业务，本次质押股份数量为610万股。截 至本公告日，万方集团累计质押股数为3060万股，占其所持股份比例为49.21%。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——美国名校毕业刚回国，26岁"金少"空降成董事长和总经理，父母隐退！A股 多位"00后"执掌要职，"不负投资者"成重大考验 （记者 曾健辉） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, macro factors continued to dominate the financial market. Concerns about the AI bubble resurfaced, leading to a sharp decline in global markets, including stocks, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals. However, Shanghai copper rebounded due to news of increased state purchases and then declined again with the external market, finally stabilizing at around 100,000 [4]. - The copper market's sharp decline was mainly driven by sudden panic in the macro - level, and some factors that previously pushed copper prices to new highs have changed. But copper will remain a focus of global strategic resource competition, and its structural shortage may continue. Before the Spring Festival, copper prices may stabilize after a rapid release of risks [4]. - The aluminum market shows mixed trends. Alumina production capacity has some fluctuations, and electrolytic aluminum supply is increasing unexpectedly. The demand of downstream enterprises is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating [4]. - The zinc market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to macro - sentiment disturbances and pre - holiday capital outflows [4]. - The lead market has sufficient supply and weak demand. Affected by the decline in precious metal prices, lead prices hit a new low in 2026. After the pre - holiday profit - taking of short - selling funds in precious metals, the market may stabilize [4]. - The nickel market has a strong support at the mine end, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend [5]. - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore, and the downstream demand maintains rigid procurement. It is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the supply resumption and downstream demand [5]. - The industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are affected by production cuts on both the supply and demand sides, and are expected to fluctuate [5]. - The lithium carbonate market is affected by factors such as mine risks and changes in supply and demand. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the power demand off - season [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - **Economic data of the current week (2/2 - 2/8)**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, higher than the previous value; the eurozone's January manufacturing PMI was 49.5; the US January ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, reaching a new high since February 2022; the US January ADP employment increase was 22,000, lower than expected; the US January ISM services PMI was 53.8, reaching a new high since 2024 [12][13][15][17][18]. - **Policy and news**: China's Non - ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to include copper concentrates in the national reserve; US President Donald Trump plans to invest $12 billion in strategic key mineral reserves [14][16]. - **Next - week economic data calendar (2/9 - 2/15)**: It includes data such as China's January M1 and M2 money supply year - on - year, the US January NFIB small business optimism index, and the US January unemployment rate [20]. 2. Copper - **Market review**: Shanghai copper first rebounded and then declined, and finally stabilized at around 100,000. The copper market was mainly affected by macro factors and inventory changes [4]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes LME copper spot/three - month spread, Shanghai copper inter - period spread curve, COMEX institutional positions, and global visible copper inventory [30][33]. 3. Aluminum - **Market review**: Shanghai aluminum showed a trend of rising and then adjusting, with the overall upward trend temporarily maintained [37]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes 6063 aluminum rod inventory, alumina port inventory, aluminum bauxite port inventory, electrolytic aluminum social inventory, electrolytic aluminum cost and profit, and alumina production cost and profit [41][42][43][45]. 4. Zinc - **Market review**: Shanghai zinc showed a trend of rising and then adjusting, with the upward trend of shock temporarily unchanged [50]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory/warehouse receipts, global visible zinc inventory, 0 zinc ingot premium, zinc forward curve, and zinc - related product prices [52][53][58][59]. 5. Lead - **Market review**: Shanghai lead showed a downward trend of shock, with overall range fluctuations [65]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventory/warehouse receipts, global lead inventory, lead forward curve, lead spot premium, and LME lead (spot/three - month) spread [67][70][74]. 6. Nickel - **Market review**: Shanghai nickel fell from a high level and was under pressure from the lower edge of the upper shock area [78]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory, LME nickel global inventory, high - nickel iron and Jinchuan nickel plate prices, nickel and nickel sulfate prices, and stainless steel inventory [81][82][87][88][90][91][92]. 7. Tin - **Market review**: Shanghai tin continued to decline after rising, and was temporarily supported by the lower trend line [95]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes tin futures closing prices, Shanghai tin premium, tin smelting profit, LME tin (spot/three - month) spread, tin - related product prices, Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory, and LME tin inventory [98][99][100][101][104]. 8. Other Metals (Gold, Silver, etc.) - **Trend analysis**: Shanghai gold rebounded after falling from a high level, maintaining an overall upward trend; Shanghai silver fell again after a rebound, breaking through the previous low, and the trend weakened; platinum and palladium showed wide - range fluctuations; industrial silicon showed wide - range fluctuations and broke through the lower limit of the range; alumina showed small - range fluctuations; polysilicon showed small - range fluctuations and stabilized; aluminum alloy showed small - range fluctuations and the downward trend changed; stainless steel and lithium carbonate fell from high levels, and the upward trend changed [109][111][112][114][116][118][119][122].

Group 1: Precious Metals - The decline in market risk appetite has led to adjustments in precious metal prices, with gold supported by continued purchases from the People's Bank of China and rising ETF holdings [2] - Silver prices are influenced by stable leasing rates and a rapid decline in U.S. silver inventories [2] Group 2: Copper - The expectation of strategic reserves for copper provides support despite macroeconomic pressures, with a focus on upstream resources to counter overseas supply disruptions [3] - The demand for copper is driven by AI computing infrastructure and grid modernization, indicating strong resilience in pricing [3] Group 3: Aluminum - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to seasonal demand weakness, with a decline in processing rates and an increase in social inventory [4] - The macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with the ISM services PMI returning to expansion but ADP employment figures falling short of expectations [4] Group 4: Tin - Tin prices are under downward pressure due to overseas macroeconomic factors and reduced funding, but there is increased purchasing interest from downstream sectors as prices decline [5] - The supply side may see marginal easing with increased activity in Indonesian tin transactions and the resumption of production in Myanmar [5] Group 5: Energy Metals - Lithium demand remains strong despite a four-week inventory reduction, with expectations of preemptive battery demand due to changes in export tax policies [6] - Cobalt prices are high due to tight upstream raw material supply, while companies are extending their reach into electric new energy sectors to enhance competitive advantages [6] Group 6: Rare Earths - The supply-demand balance for light rare earths remains tight, with prices continuing to rise due to pre-holiday stocking needs [7] - The investment value of rare earths as a strategic resource is highlighted, with specific companies recommended for investment [7] Group 7: Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are experiencing a systematic increase driven by supply-demand dynamics, with significant price hikes reported by leading companies [8] - The market for uranium is expected to continue rising due to persistent supply-demand gaps and the development of nuclear power [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions in influencing metal price trends [2] - The report highlights the need to focus on investment opportunities following stabilization in the market [8] Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 8.51% last week, underperforming major indices [14][16] 2. Metal Prices and Inventory - Copper prices decreased by 3.45% to 100,100 CNY/ton, while aluminum prices fell by 5.07% to 23,315 CNY/ton [24] - SHFE gold prices dropped by 8.92% to 1,090.12 CNY/gram, while COMEX gold rose by 5.13% to 4,988.60 USD/ounce [26] - SHFE silver prices decreased by 37.17% to 18,799 CNY/kg, with COMEX silver down by 1.28% to 77.53 USD/ounce [26] 3. Macro Data Tracking - The report tracks key macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. CPI and PCE, which show a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and 2.79%, respectively [29][30] - China's CPI and PPI for December were reported at 0.8% and -1.9%, respectively [30] 4. Precious Metals: Low Inventory Disturbances - The report notes that low inventory levels continue to disrupt precious metal prices, with significant fluctuations observed in both gold and silver markets [52][53] 5. Copper: Price Fluctuations - The report indicates that copper prices are expected to fluctuate, with supply-side adjustments and demand dynamics playing crucial roles [65][72] 6. Aluminum: Price Adjustments - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to macroeconomic sentiment and seasonal demand fluctuations, with a noted decrease in processing rates [10][80] 7. Energy Metals: Strong Demand - The report highlights robust demand for energy metals, particularly lithium, despite some price pressures due to macroeconomic factors [89][92] 8. Rare Earths: Price Trends - Prices for rare earth elements, particularly praseodymium and neodymium oxides, continue to rise, supported by tight supply conditions [11]

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2026-02-09 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 9431.31 | | 52 | 周最高 | 11180.33 | | 52 | 周最低 | 4295.55 | 高波行情渐退，逢低布局有色板块 l 投资要点 贵金属：波动率预计已达到极致，黄金企稳。贵金属继续波动， 伦敦金最低点跌至 4400 美金左右，沪金最低跌至 1000 元左右，波动 率在周一放大到极致后开始减退，也为本轮调整找到了最低点——伦 敦金 4400 美元/沪金 1000 元。白银 ETF 的增持可能是短期折价带来 的套利机会所致，不能简单作为企稳信号。短期来看，黄金基本见底， 以市场给出的前低作锚进行交易。长期来看，沃什的降息+缩表政策 的实施，会对长端美债带来难以对冲的风险，美债走出牛陡的情况下， 黄金值得增配。 行业相对指数表现 2025-02 2025-04 2025-07 2025-09 2025-11 2026-02 -8% 7% 22% 37% 52% 67% 82% 97% 112% 12 ...

铝产业链月报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 风险情绪下行供需季节性弱 铝价震荡向下调整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 25 进入休假，铸造铝检修增多开工率逐步下滑。海外 ADC12报价维持高位震荡，受国内价格下跌影响，进 口盈利空间持续收窄并一度转为小幅亏损，进口货 源对国内市场的冲击减弱。下游需求偏弱，高价备 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 ⚫ 氧化铝方面，1月氧化铝出现部分减产检修，涉及产 能约500万吨，不过这些减产多以焙烧炉检修为主， 后续产能将陆续恢复。临近春节物流运力将有大幅 下降，氧化铝厂库 ...