Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **debt market** outlook for 2026, highlighting various strategies and market dynamics affecting bond yields and credit performance. Core Insights and Arguments - **Yield Predictions**: The mainstream view anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield will fluctuate between **1.7% and 2.0%** in 2026, with a cautious approach towards the **97 strategy** and a focus on institutional behavior [1][4] - **Market Dynamics**: The debt market is expected to experience a slight upward fluctuation, influenced by weak economic sentiment and insufficient social demand, with potential risks from equity market rallies and tightening monetary policy [1][6] - **Credit vs. Interest Rates**: Credit performance is currently superior to interest rates, with short-term credit bonds showing strong performance. The focus has shifted back to **yield strategies** rather than merely avoiding risks [3][12] - **Key Strategies**: The main strategies for 2026 include **low volatility**, **high yield strategies**, and a cautious approach to the **97 strategy**. Emphasis is placed on understanding institutional behaviors and market dynamics [5][8] Important but Overlooked Content - **Impact of Anti-Competition Policies**: The anti-competition policies have significantly reduced the leading indicators' effectiveness, particularly the PPI, which historically had a strong influence on the debt market [7] - **Financial Debt as Core Investment**: Financial bonds remain a core investment for non-bank institutions due to their safety, yield, and liquidity advantages, despite short-term impacts from redemption fee regulations [8][29] - **Sector-Specific Insights**: The real estate sector is under pressure due to demographic changes, with a declining number of new births affecting future housing demand. This demographic shift is expected to continue impacting the economy and real estate sector negatively [22][31] - **Credit Strategy Adjustments**: The strategy for credit bonds involves adjusting allocations based on yield levels, favoring high elasticity subjects during high yield periods and low elasticity subjects during low yield periods [28] Conclusion - The debt market outlook for 2026 is characterized by cautious optimism, with a focus on credit performance and strategic adjustments in response to evolving market conditions. The interplay between policy, economic indicators, and institutional behavior will be crucial in shaping investment strategies moving forward.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market dynamics, particularly focusing on the fourth quarter trends and potential investment opportunities in various types of bonds [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Characteristics**: The bond market in Q4 is characterized by a "weak early, strong late" pattern, with limited support for significant interest rate increases due to conservative institutional behavior [2][3]. 2. **Investment Opportunities**: There is a potential for a rebound in the bond market, particularly around the 1.85 support level, with short-term opportunities in high-rated credit bonds and perpetual bonds [1][5]. 3. **Historical Context**: Historical data suggests that the current market conditions present a chance for a rebound rather than a trend reversal, with economic data and issuance volumes having minimal impact on the bond market [2][3]. 4. **Technical Indicators**: The 30-year and 10-year government bond yield spread is nearing a bottom, indicating limited further downside potential. The technical patterns in government bond futures require confirmation through volume and price indicators [4][6]. 5. **Market Sentiment**: Recent announcements regarding government bond transactions and new public offering regulations are stabilizing market sentiment, although they are not expected to significantly enhance it [8]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Credit Bond Dynamics**: The supply of convertible bonds is expected to remain tight in 2025, with a projected issuance of over 2 billion, which may lead to a scarcity of convertible bonds and a shift in valuation logic towards equity-like characteristics [11][14]. 2. **ETF Market Challenges**: The narrowing of excess spreads in the Sci-Tech bond market is attributed to valuation adjustments rather than market rumors, with the growth of Sci-Tech ETFs facing challenges due to high foundational investor ratios and limited expansion potential [9][10]. 3. **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: For credit products like city investment bonds and Sci-Tech products, a focus on trading strategies rather than simple allocations is advised, utilizing price differences and arbitrage opportunities to enhance returns [12]. 4. **Future Market Indicators**: Key indicators to monitor include absolute and relative yield levels, particularly the 1.85 support level and the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds, as well as the technical patterns in government bond futures [6][7]. Conclusion The bond market is currently experiencing a phase of potential rebound rather than a trend reversal, with specific investment opportunities in high-rated credit bonds and perpetual bonds. Monitoring key technical indicators and market sentiment will be crucial for navigating the upcoming months.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the inclusion of electronic savings bonds into the personal pension product range, effective from June 2026, which enhances investment options for personal pension accounts [1][2]. - The addition of savings bonds is expected to attract more participants to the personal pension system by offering low-risk and stable returns, thus broadening the appeal and coverage of the system [1][3]. - The expansion of personal pension products is significant for individuals, the industry, and society, as it diversifies investment channels, encourages long-term capital inflow into the market, and helps address the challenges of an aging population [2][3]. Group 2 - As of November 2023, over 72 million personal pension accounts have been opened, indicating a growing trend in personal pension participation [3]. - The current personal pension product offerings include 1,245 products across various categories, such as savings, wealth management, insurance, and funds, reflecting a diverse supply structure [2][3]. - Experts suggest that the inclusion of savings bonds will lower the cognitive barrier for investors and optimize asset allocation, benefiting individuals, institutional development, and national growth [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in global stock markets, driven by changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve, and highlights the potential for investment opportunities in U.S. Treasury bonds and global stock indices. Group 1: Market Trends - Last week, global stock markets experienced a significant decline due to decreased probabilities of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to short-term liquidity tightening [3] - However, positive news over the weekend increased the likelihood of a rate cut in December, resulting in a substantial rebound in global stock markets this week, with a 3.4% increase in global stock indices [5][6] - U.S. and European stocks saw notable gains, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks also rose overall [7][8] - Future market fluctuations due to short-term liquidity tightening are anticipated, but the overall trend suggests a continued need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [9][11] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Bonds - The expectation of interest rate cuts has positively impacted U.S. Treasury bonds, with the bond market index currently rated at 5 stars, close to 4.9 stars [15] - Since the Federal Reserve began cutting rates last year, U.S. Treasury bonds have entered a bullish phase, with the overall market index fund rising by 5.7% over the past year [16][17] - The primary factors influencing the returns on U.S. Treasury bond funds include annual interest income and price fluctuations, with interest income being the major contributor [20][22] Group 3: Investment Considerations - For investors in U.S. Treasury bond funds, returns may be slightly lower when investing from mainland China due to currency depreciation and management fees [24][27] - The expected yield for mainland investors in U.S. Treasury bond funds is around 3-4% after accounting for these factors [30] - The article notes that there is currently a high demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to purchase limits on funds in mainland China [30] Group 4: Global Stock Market Valuation - A star rating chart for the global stock market indicates that previous low valuation phases occurred in 2018, 2020, and 2022, with the market currently at around 3.1 stars, suggesting a relatively low valuation [31][32] - The article emphasizes that global stock indices can be accessed through investment funds, although there are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China [35] - The company has introduced a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across various stock markets to track global stock performance [36] Group 5: Book Release - The article mentions the release of a new edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide," which has gained significant attention and sales, highlighting its historical impact on investment strategies [41] - The book emphasizes that, over the long term, stock assets are the best means of wealth accumulation, advocating for a certain proportion of family assets to be allocated to stocks [42][43]

Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market experienced a significant pullback this week, with short-term bonds supported by central bank liquidity and demand, maintaining stable yields[1] - Long-term bonds faced pressure due to policy concerns and profit-taking, but later recovered as fundamental expectations solidified and institutional buying resumed[1] - The recent actions of major banks to withdraw large-denomination certificates of deposit have raised expectations for interest rate declines, providing policy support for a potential bond market recovery[1] Group 2: Market Performance Overview - From November 22 to November 29, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.65%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.54%, and the S&P 500 gained 3.73%[2] - The 10-year China bond yield increased by 2.47 basis points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 4 basis points[2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.72%, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.49%[2] Group 3: Inventory and Fund Behavior - The latest weekly crude oil inventory stood at 44,355 million tons, up by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest data shows a decrease in long positions in the U.S. dollar by 177 contracts, while short positions increased by 1,611 contracts[3] - The gold ETF size rose to 3,361 million ounces, an increase of 160,000 ounces from the previous week[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints - 11 - month bond market was in a volatile pattern without strong policy and fundamental drivers, and 12 - month important meetings and key economic data will be key variables for market direction [2][9] - 12 - month stock market's impact on the bond market may weaken due to recent weak equity market performance and year - end institutional factors [2][9] - 12 - month interest rates are likely to decline, but the continuation of the calendar effect needs further information [2][10] - Market bulls still have concerns, and the year - end allocation market awaits the implementation of redemption rules [3][13] 3. Summary by Directory 12 - month Bond Market Outlook - After 10 - month trading, the year - end bond market tends to be conservative. In November, the bond market was volatile, and future direction depends on 12 - month meetings and data [9] - The impact of the stock market on the bond market in December may weaken, and interest rates are likely to fall [2][9][10] - Market participants' concerns remain, and the start of the year - end allocation market depends on redemption rules [3][13] 11 - month Bond Market Review 2.1 Bond Market Trend Review - Throughout November, the 10Y treasury bond rate had different trends each week, influenced by various factors such as policies, data, and stock market performance [24][25] 2.2 Funding Situation - The central bank net - injected 438 billion yuan. In November, the funding situation was generally balanced, with early convergence and month - end easing [26] 2.3 Secondary Market Performance - In November, bond yields fluctuated upwards. Most key - term treasury bond rates increased, and most term spreads widened [34] 2.4 Bond Market Sentiment - In November, bond fund durations slightly decreased, and the 50Y - 30Y treasury bond spread significantly widened. Bank - to - bank leverage decreased, while exchange leverage increased [42] 2.5 Bond Supply - In November, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased, while the net repayment of inter - bank certificates of deposit rose. The issuance scale of different types of bonds had various changes [52][53][57] Economic Data - In October, the growth rate of industrial enterprise profits slowed down. Since November, real - estate transactions have been weak year - on - year, while port throughput has been strong [63] Overseas Bond Market - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a decline in US consumer spending, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts has increased. US bonds rose, while bond markets in China, Japan, and South Korea fell [73][74] Major Asset Classes - In November, the Shanghai Gold Index strengthened, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the South China Pig Index weakened. The performance ranking of major asset classes was Shanghai Gold > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Shanghai Copper > US dollar > Chinese bonds > Rebar > Convertible bonds > Crude oil > CSI 1000 > CSI 300 > Pig [79] Policy Summary - Multiple policies were introduced in November, covering areas such as real - estate investment trusts, medical insurance, science - finance cooperation, consumption support, and capital market reform. Future impacts of these policies need to be monitored [82][83][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the A - share market rebounded continuously. Vanke's debt extension dragged down the bond market sentiment. On Friday, rumors that the six major banks stopped selling five - year large - value certificates of deposit and cut the interest rates of three - year deposit products led to an increase in domestic interest - rate cut expectations, causing a slight rebound in the bond market. Overall, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, while ultra - long bonds continued to fall. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds remained stable and was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][3][11]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of November 30, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 34BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic data and other factors, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate at a low level, and the spread repair between the 30 - year and 10 - year bonds is expected to end [2][12]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of November 30, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 12BP, at a historically extremely low level. Given the economic situation, the bond market is likely to fluctuate at a low level, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The A - share market rebounded continuously last week. Vanke's debt extension affected the bond market sentiment. The rumor of banks' deposit - product adjustments on Friday led to a slight rebound in the bond market. Ultra - long bonds continued to fall. Trading was active, with stable activity. The term spread remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: The 30 - 10 spread is at a low level. In October, economic downward pressure increased, with GDP growth slowing and deflation risks. The bond market is likely to have low - level fluctuations, and the spread repair is expected to end [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: The 20 - year CDB - treasury spread is extremely low. Similar to the 30 - year situation, the bond market is likely to fluctuate at a low level, and the CDB bond variety spread is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, reaching 173.5 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds dominated. By term, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance [19]. 3.2.2 This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for this week is 55.8 billion yuan, including 27 billion yuan of ultra - long treasury bonds and 28.8 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds [25]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were actively traded, with a turnover of 913.6 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of all bonds. Compared with the previous week, the overall turnover decreased slightly, but there were different trends among varieties [27]. 3.3.2 Yield - The bond market first declined and then rebounded last week, and ultra - long bonds continued to fall. Yields of different - term bonds changed, and yields of representative individual bonds also changed [37][41]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: It remained flat last week, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 treasury bond spread was 34BP, unchanged from the previous week [48]. - **Variety Spread**: It narrowed last week, with an absolute low level. The 20 - year CDB - treasury spread was 12BP, and the 20 - year railway bond - treasury spread was 18BP [49]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 closed at 114.46 yuan, a decrease of 0.81%. Trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous week [54].

Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market experienced a significant pullback this week, with short-term bonds supported by central bank liquidity and demand, maintaining stable yields[1] - Long-term bonds faced pressure due to policy concerns and profit-taking, but later recovered as fundamental expectations solidified and institutional buying resumed[1] - The recent actions of major banks to withdraw large-denomination certificates of deposit have raised expectations for interest rate declines, providing policy support for a potential bond market recovery[1] Group 2: Market Performance Overview - From November 22 to November 29, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.65%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.54%, and the S&P 500 gained 3.73%[2] - The 10-year China bond yield increased by 2.47 basis points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 4 basis points[2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.72%, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.49%[2] Group 3: Inventory and Fund Behavior - The latest weekly crude oil inventory stood at 44,355 million tons, up by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest week saw a decrease in long positions in the U.S. dollar by 177 contracts, while short positions increased by 1,611 contracts[3] - The gold ETF size rose to 3,361 million ounces, an increase of 160,000 ounces from the previous week[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the bond market will still strengthen seasonally in December this year, and although the "front - running" rhythm will be later, it will still occur. As short - term constraints such as profit - taking and indicator pressures ease, allocative institutions will gradually increase their bond allocations, and it is expected that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will drop to around 1.7% (new bonds) by the end of the year [5][22]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Bond Market Adjustment This Week - This week, the bond market adjusted again. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose by 2.5bps and 2.7bps to 1.84% and 2.19% respectively. The yields of 3 - year and 5 - year secondary capital bonds rose by 5.5bps and 3.2bps respectively. The yield of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit rose slightly by 0.5bps to 1.64% [1][8]. - The adjustment is due to institutional behavior changes. Banks face year - end indicator pressures and profit - taking needs, resulting in insufficient allocation power. Meanwhile, the reform of public fund fees has led to increased short - term selling pressure from passive redemptions of public funds, and some trading institutions such as securities firms have boosted the market trend [1][8]. Seasonal Strengthening of the Bond Market in December in Previous Years - In the past five years, the bond market in December has generally strengthened. From 2020 to 2024, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined in December, with an average decline of 14.0bps. In 2024, the decline was the largest at 34.5bps. Excluding 2024, the average decline from 2020 - 2023 was 8.9bps. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield also declined significantly in December, with an average decline of 18.2bps from 2020 - 2024 [8]. - The front - running effect occurred not only in bull markets (e.g., the end of 2021 and 2024) but also in bear markets (e.g., the end of 2020 and 2022). In bull markets, the yield decline started earlier. In 2024, the yield started to decline significantly in the last week of November, while in 2021 and 2023, it started around early December. In bear markets (2020 and 2022), the decline started in mid - December [8]. Reasons for the Weak and Volatile Bond Market in the Fourth Quarter - Banks have been continuously reducing their long - bond holdings since October due to indicator pressures (including interest - rate sensitivity and liquidity indicators) and profit - taking needs, with large banks facing the most significant pressure. These factors, combined with the impact of public fund fee reform, have led to the phased redemption of public funds by banks and wealth management products, resulting in selling pressure on public funds and constraining the bond market [2][12]. Easing of Current Pressures - Bank indicator pressures and profit - taking needs are more concentrated in the middle of the quarter, especially in the year - end quarter. Near the end of the quarter or year, these pressures tend to ease, and banks will have new allocation space at the beginning of a new year or quarter. The significant decline in the net financing volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit in the past two weeks indicates that the indicator pressures of joint - stock banks may have started to ease, and allocation demand will gradually recover [3][12]. - The impact of public fund fee reform has been digested to a large extent. The scale of public bond funds has significantly shrunk, decreasing by 51.27 billion shares from the end of June to October, nearly a 10% reduction. If the new regulations provide a sufficient transition period, the short - term impact may be limited [3][15]. Reasons for Allocative Institutions to Increase Bond Allocation - From a quantitative perspective, allocative institutions face the pressure of rising liability growth but insufficient asset supply. Banks are experiencing rising deposit growth and falling loan growth. Near the end of the year, if financial institutions expect low financing demand in the first quarter of next year, they may increase bond allocation in advance. The weak fundamental data in November (both manufacturing and service PMI are below the boom - bust line) indicates that corporate financing demand may be suppressed, and there is a possibility of a year - on - year decrease in credit and social financing in the first quarter of next year. At the same time, due to reduced residential housing purchases, residents' savings will accumulate more in low - risk assets, increasing the possibility of an asset shortage [4][18]. - From a price perspective, bond yields are more cost - effective. The spread between the same - term mortgage loan and the 30 - year Treasury bond in the third quarter of this year was 81bps, the lowest since mid - 2017, indicating that bonds are more cost - effective than loans and other assets [4][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The probability of a rate cut in early next year is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the central bank's statements around the Central Economic Work Conference. The downward break of DR001 below 1.31% on the last trading day of November may have strong signaling significance, and the liquidity in December is worth looking forward to. The supply - demand relationship is becoming more favorable for the bond market, and it is recommended to seize the long - buying opportunity before mid - January, with the 10 - year Treasury yield potentially breaking below 1.7% (250016) [3]. - The Political Bureau meeting in December is expected to continue the combination of "more proactive fiscal policy + moderately loose monetary policy" and support technological innovation and consumption development in the industrial direction. Historically, interest rates usually decline around the Central Economic Work Conference. Attention should be paid to the central bank's relevant statements and the demand for a good start in the economy [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in December is low, but there is still a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut this year and a rate cut early next year. The central bank's purchase of Treasury bonds may increase in November - December, with the scale possibly exceeding 100 billion yuan. The liquidity is expected to be looser, and a reserve requirement ratio cut can be anticipated [3]. - The supply - demand structure is favorable for the bond market. The net financing of government bonds in December is expected to decline significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, and the credit will not strengthen significantly. It is necessary to wait for the sentiment of non - bank institutions to improve and focus on the cross - year allocation opportunities around the Central Economic Work Conference [3]. Summary by Directory 1. 11 - month Incremental Benefits Limited, Interest Rates Oscillated Upward - In November, interest rates oscillated upward and the curve steepened. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 4.58bp to 1.84%, and the term spread between 1 - year and 10 - year Treasuries widened 2.67bp to 43.95bp. The main reasons were limited incremental benefits in the bond market, unclear signals of monetary policy easing, and the impact of multiple factors such as the news of the fund sales new regulations, the Sino - US presidential call, Vanke's debt extension announcement, and the increasing redemption pressure of fixed - income + products [7]. - The market logic was similar to that at the end of June and early July this year. After the interest rate decline and spread compression, there were limited new benefits, and the profit - taking orders promoted a phased adjustment in the bond market. The new regulations on fund sales had not been implemented, and related news repeatedly affected the bond market sentiment [7]. 2. Will December Be Similar to July? - It is considered unlikely that December will follow the market trend of mid - to late July. In the third quarter, interest rates continued to rise due to factors such as Sino - US trade frictions and a looser liquidity environment. Currently, although there are limited new benefits in the bond market, there are also insufficient incremental negative factors. The interest rate ceiling is clearer, and the liquidity in December is worth looking forward to [8][14]. 3. How Has the Bond Market Performed in December Historically? - Historically, Treasury yields mostly declined in December, especially since 2018. The main reasons were the weak winter production, economic pressure, and the promotion of monetary policy expectations and loose liquidity. The release of macro data in November had an impact on the bond market trend in December, with financial and export data being more prominent [16][17][18]. - The key logics to focus on in December's bond market are the expectation of loose monetary policy around important meetings, whether the weak fundamentals will trigger a rate cut, whether the central bank's bond - buying can increase, and whether the cross - year allocation market can be successfully staged [18]. 4. Will the Important Meetings Lead to Expectations of Loose Monetary Policy? - In December, there will be the Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. Historically, around the Central Economic Work Conference, interest rates usually declined. The market should focus on the central bank's relevant statements around the meetings and the demand for a good start in the economy. The combination of "more proactive fiscal policy + moderately loose monetary policy" is expected to continue, and the industrial direction will support technological innovation and consumption development [3][19][20]. 5. Will There Be a Rate Cut in January with the Continued Weak Fundamentals? - The manufacturing PMI in November rebounded slightly to 49.2%, but it did not exceed market expectations. The market's trading of the November PMI may be limited. The probability of a rate cut in December is low, but considering the current situation, the probability of an early - next - year rate cut is relatively high [28][35][36]. - In November, the prices of black and chemical products were weak, while non - ferrous metals continued to be strong. The subsequent CPI may rise year - on - year, mainly due to the base effect, the Spring Festival misalignment, and cost - push factors [30][32]. 6. The Net Purchase of Treasury Bonds Is Expected to Increase, and the Interest Rate of Funds May Break Downward - The central bank's purchase of Treasury bonds may be an important tool to cooperate with fiscal policy and guide market expectations. It is expected that the central bank's purchase scale of Treasury bonds in November - December will increase, possibly exceeding 100 billion yuan. The liquidity is expected to be looser, and a reserve requirement ratio cut can be anticipated [37][38][40]. 7. The Supply - Demand Structure Is Becoming More Favorable for the Bond Market 7.1 Asset Supply Continues to Decline Year - on - Year - The net financing of government bonds in December is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year. It is estimated that the issuance of government bonds in December will be 2.1007 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 496 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 642.9 billion yuan. The credit is not expected to strengthen significantly, and the social financing growth rate may continue to decline [42][43][44]. 7.2 The Cross - Year Allocation Market Will Not Be Absent, Waiting for the Recovery of Non - Bank Sentiment - In November, the net purchase of insurance companies for interest - rate bonds over 7 years significantly exceeded the seasonal level, while the purchase scale of funds, securities firms, and other product categories decreased. It is necessary to wait for the recovery of non - bank sentiment and focus on the central bank's statements around the Central Economic Work Conference to trigger the cross - year allocation market [47].