固收：对股债何时破局的再思考 20250616 摘要 四月对等关税事件后，股市和债市的回踩幅度明显降低，上证指数在触 及 3,400 点以上时，回撤幅度仅为五六十个点，随后反弹，显示市场韧 性增强。 近期市场虽受中美伦敦会谈未取消芬太尼关税及以对伊精准打击等利空 影响，A 股全周累计跌幅约为 0.5%，十年国债利率在 1.6%附近有回踩 但稳住 1.7%左右，市场表现相对稳定。 基金久期中位数持续拉涨至去年底今年初高位，反映市场参与者看好曲 线平坦化趋势，机构倾向于长债以应对超低利率环境。 预计未来一两个月内，上证指数大概率有效突破 3,400 点，或冲击 3,450 点更高位置，十年国债利率可能向下突破 1.6%，或至 1.55 甚至 1.50，股票市场突破概率更大且时间领先。 债券市场有效突破 1.6%需满足 A 股大跌、央行重新买入国债并确认启 动、央行再次降息 10 个基点三个条件，否则难以断定直接跌破。 市场对 A 股短期走势存在悲观预期，但实际跌幅小于预期，表明当前市 场处于震荡上涨的牛市环境，除非出现重大利空，否则大幅下跌可能性 较低。 预计未来几周政策密集发布期，外部环境复杂，中国与美国对话中 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market and monetary policy in China, particularly regarding the central bank's actions and their implications for interest rates and economic support. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy and Interest Rates** - The central bank's reverse repo operations are stabilizing market expectations, with a potential for further rate cuts in the second half of the year to support economic growth [1][3][8] - A 10 basis point rate cut has already occurred in Q2, with expectations for additional cuts in Q3 [1][3][8] 2. **Market Expectations and Bond Purchases** - Large purchases of short-term bonds by major banks may indicate the central bank's intention to restart bond-buying operations, which could lead to lower interest rates [1][3][9] - The short-term government bond yield is expected to trend towards 1.1%, while the 10-year bond yield may break below 1.6% and approach 1.5% [1][6][9] 3. **Factors Influencing Interest Rate Movements** - A significant amount of maturing certificates of deposit and fluctuations in the funding environment may temporarily restrict interest rate declines [1][7] - Positive outcomes from US-China negotiations could slightly increase market risk appetite, potentially affecting rates by 2-3 basis points [1][4][5][7] 4. **Investment Strategies** - A bullish approach is recommended for the next two to three months, focusing on 3 to 5-year bullet bonds if the central bank resumes bond purchases [1][9][11] - In the absence of such expectations, a strategy favoring ticket interest or yield spread compression is advised [1][9][11] 5. **Long-term Credit Bonds** - Long-term credit bonds are viewed as having high certainty in the current market environment, with recommendations to focus on 8-year medium-term notes and 6 to 10-year subordinated capital bonds [1][15] 6. **Local vs. National Bonds** - The spread between local and national bonds is expected to remain stable, with local bond issuance anticipated to increase in Q3 [1][16][17] 7. **Liquidity and Trading Strategies** - Active bonds are reasonably priced and maintain good liquidity, making them suitable for trading [1][21] - Investors are advised to monitor changes in liquidity premiums and bond pricing dynamics [1][21] 8. **Floating vs. Fixed Rate Bonds** - Floating rate bonds are currently reasonably priced, but may not outperform fixed-rate bonds if short-term rates decline [1][24] 9. **Government Bond Futures** - Current pricing of government bond futures is considered high, but they still hold hedging value. Strategies may include shorting corresponding futures to capture yield [1][25] Other Important Considerations - The overall economic outlook remains dependent on continued monetary support, with expectations for the central bank to take action to stabilize market conditions amid significant government bond supply pressures [1][8] - The anticipated bond market dynamics suggest a cautious yet opportunistic approach to investment, with a focus on liquidity and yield optimization [1][9][15]

Core Insights - The rise in Japanese 10-year government bond yields has significant spillover effects on global fixed income markets, causing synchronized volatility in U.S. and German bonds [1][2] - The sensitivity of U.S. Treasury yields to changes in Japanese bond yields has increased sharply since the Bank of Japan began loosening its yield curve control in 2022 [1][2] - Japan's bond market, valued at $7.8 trillion, is experiencing its highest volatility in over two decades, impacting global bond investors [1][2] Group 1 - The correlation between U.S. and Japanese bond yields has reached a five-year high, particularly in the 10 to 30-year yield spread [1] - Japanese government bonds account for 16.7% of the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index, making their performance critical for global bond investors [2] - The recent volatility in Japanese bonds is reshaping global bond trading dynamics, with investors closely monitoring Tokyo's market movements [2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan is reducing its bond holdings at a record pace, with a reduction of ¥6.18 trillion ($4.3 billion) in the first quarter of this year, the largest drop since data collection began in 1996 [3][4] - The volatility is concentrated in ultra-long bonds, with significant increases in yields for 20 and 30-year bonds following a lackluster auction [4] - Concerns over persistent inflation are leading to a global aversion to ultra-long bonds, with Japan becoming a focal point for these concerns [4][5] Group 3 - The market is facing upward pressure on yields due to concerns over U.S. fiscal deficits exacerbated by the Trump administration's tax cuts [5] - There is no evidence that the 30-year yield has peaked, and further increases in yields are anticipated as inflation remains stubbornly high [5] - The global bond market is entering a new financial ecosystem where movements in Tokyo can significantly impact trading in New York [5]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3388.73 points, up 0.35%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10163.55 points, up 0.41% [1] - The trading volume reached 481.59 billion yuan for Shanghai and 733.49 billion yuan for Shenzhen [1] - Wind power, gaming, and mining sectors led the gains, while precious metals and jewelry sectors lagged [1] Geopolitical Impact - Israel launched an attack on Iran's largest gas field, marking the first direct strike on Iranian energy infrastructure, raising concerns about escalating conflict and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz [1] - Several oil tankers have delayed their arrival at Iran's Kharg Island, which is crucial for Iran's daily export of 1.5 million barrels of oil [1] - Despite the limited intensity of the attack, traditional safe-haven assets like oil and gold saw fluctuations, indicating the need to monitor the military confrontation's effects on global energy markets and financial stability [1] Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.1326 trillion yuan in May, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, the highest growth rate since December 2023 [2] - Policies such as "trade friction" support and "trade-in" initiatives have positively influenced consumption, particularly in basic living and some upgraded goods [2] - Retail sales for food, gold and silver jewelry, and sports and entertainment products saw significant growth, with increases of 14.6%, 21.8%, and 28.3% respectively [2] Real Estate Sector - From January to May, national real estate development investment saw a year-on-year decline of 10.7%, with new housing sales area down by 2.9% [4] - In May 2025, second-hand housing prices in 70 major cities continued to decline, with first-tier cities seeing a 0.7% drop [4] - The spokesperson from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that while policies to stabilize the real estate market are being implemented, market confidence still needs to be restored [4] Credit and Industrial Prices - Credit data shows significant room for improvement in the real estate sector, while industrial product prices have decreased by 7.2% since the end of March [5] - The People's Bank of China announced a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating relatively ample liquidity [5] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated around 1.65%, with expectations of a downward trend as deposit rates adjust [5] Entertainment and IP Market - The gaming ETF and film sector saw notable increases, driven by the performance of major stocks like Light Media [6] - At the Shanghai International Film Festival, it was revealed that the animated film "Ne Zha" is expected to surpass $100 million in overseas box office, setting a record for Chinese films [7] - The IP derivative market in China is rapidly developing, with a retail market size of 71.5 billion yuan in 2022, but still significantly lower than developed countries [8][14] IP Derivative Market Insights - The IP derivative market meets consumer emotional needs, social interaction, and offers collectible value [11] - The market faces challenges such as the scarcity of quality IP and high piracy rates, which hinder long-term growth [16][14] - Companies that can consistently create quality IP are prioritized for investment, while monitoring the progress of market supervision against piracy is essential [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Credit Bond Outlook**: The recent performance of the credit bond market is better than that of the interest - rate bond market, with narrowing term spreads of various grades and most credit spreads of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds. Although there are potential negatives, the central bank's current supportive attitude makes it difficult to cause significant negative impacts. However, due to the poor liquidity of credit bonds, short - term liquidity disturbances, especially institutional behavior at the end of the quarter, need attention. Short - end coupon strategies are preferred, and long - term ordinary credit bonds should be treated with caution [5][8]. - **Convertible Bond Outlook**: The style of the convertible bond market has changed recently, with high - price, double - low, and high - rating convertible bonds performing well, while medium - and low - rating and low - price convertible bonds are relatively weak. Since May 12th, the market sentiment has weakened. But in 2025, there are three major unchanged logics in the convertible bond market, and it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [5][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit Bond and Convertible Bond Views - **Credit Bonds**: The credit bond market outperforms the interest - rate bond market, with narrowing term and credit spreads. Potential negatives include cross - quarter repatriation of wealth management products, peak CD maturities, and tariff policy fluctuations. Due to poor liquidity, short - term liquidity disturbances and institutional behavior at the end of the quarter need attention. Short - end coupon strategies are preferred, and long - term ordinary credit bonds should be carefully considered [5][8]. - **Convertible Bonds**: The market style has changed, with high - price, double - low, and high - rating convertible bonds performing well. Since May 12th, market sentiment has weakened. Three major logics in 2025 remain unchanged, and it is advisable to reserve positions for right - side adding [5][10]. 3.2 Credit Bond Review - **Negative Information Monitoring**: There were no bond defaults, overdue payments, or downgrades of corporate or bond ratings during June 9 - 15, 2025, except for several companies announcing major negative events such as lawsuits, regulatory penalties, and debt repayment difficulties [14][15]. - **Primary Issuance**: The primary issuance volume of credit bonds reached 314.1 billion yuan from June 9 - 15, 2025, with a net financing of 99.6 billion yuan. The total repayment amount was 214.5 billion yuan, a 45% increase from the previous period. Four bonds with a total scale of 3 billion yuan were cancelled or postponed. The issuance costs of medium - and high - grade bonds increased by about 10bp [15][16][18]. - **Secondary Trading**: Credit bond valuations were flat at the short - end and declined at the long - end. The risk - free rate curve only slightly increased at the long - end. Short - term spreads of various grades widened slightly, mid - term spreads remained flat, and long - term spreads narrowed by 3bp. The turnover rate increased to 2.04%. High - discount bonds were mainly from real - estate companies such as Country Garden, Sunshine City, and Vanke [20][29]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Review - **Market Overall Performance**: From June 9 - 13, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, and other major indices mostly declined, except for the ChiNext Index, which rose 0.22%. The leading convertible bonds generally performed weaker than their underlying stocks. The top - rising convertible bonds were Jinling, Jinji, and Haibo Convertible Bonds [33]. - **Convertible Bonds Slightly Declined, Defensive Varieties Performed Well**: Last week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index declined 0.02%, the parity center increased 0.1% to 96.0 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center increased 0.5% to 26.5%. The average daily trading volume significantly increased to 69.298 billion yuan. Large - cap, high - rating, and double - low convertible bonds performed well [38].

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 6 月 16 日 大类资产运行周报（20250609-20250613） 地缘冲突升温 国际油价短期攀升 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 0.60% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -0.35% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.81% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.78% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.90% | | 美元指数 | 分析师 -1.07% | | SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 2.99% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 4.86% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（202 ...

Market Overview - Global markets are dominated by geopolitical conflicts, particularly the Israel-Iran situation, leading to a surge in safe-haven assets like oil and gold, with Brent crude rising by 9% to $75.18 per barrel and gold surpassing $3,452 per ounce[4] - The VIX index has rebounded, indicating increased market volatility, while A-shares have shown a decline in price but an increase in trading volume, with small-cap growth stocks outperforming[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Bonds: Maintain a focus on leverage and duration strategies supported by loose monetary policy, while closely monitoring central bank liquidity operations and U.S. CPI data[5] - Overseas equities: Overweight non-U.S. market assets, such as Hong Kong and South Korean stocks, to capitalize on a weaker dollar and resilient fundamentals[5] - Commodities: Overall underweight due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on specific commodities like oil that may experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions[7] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6] Economic Indicators - The Chinese Business Conditions Index (BCI) recorded a slight increase to 50.30, indicating a marginal improvement but a significant drop from the March peak of 54.75, suggesting ongoing economic expansion challenges[40] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) expectations have reached new lows, indicating persistent price pressures at the production level, compounded by two consecutive months of negative CPI growth, reflecting weak consumer demand[49] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased by 13.1% to 1.341 trillion yuan, indicating heightened investor participation and a favorable liquidity environment for market valuation recovery[59] - The current valuation of A-shares is near historical averages, with the CSI 800's price-to-earnings ratio at the 48th percentile and price-to-book ratio at the 61st percentile, reflecting cautious optimism in economic fundamentals[64]

美国国债延续跌势，10年期国债收益率上升6个基点至4.46%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report is optimistic about the subsequent bond market. It believes that incremental funds for the bond market may come from the expansion of fixed-income asset management products and the increase in insurance allocation willingness. When market concerns fade, bond market interest rates may follow the decline of funding rates [5][15]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Interest Rate View: Where Do the Incremental Funds in the Bond Market Come From? - Since June, the funding situation has been looser than expected, with both funding rates and bond yields declining, but the decline in bond yields is smaller. The market is mainly worried about two issues: no more incremental funds in the bond market in the second half of the year and the unsustainability of the loose funding situation [5][8]. - The report is optimistic about the first issue, believing that there will still be incremental funds in the bond market in the second half of the year, mainly from two sources. First, fixed-income asset management products will continue to expand due to factors such as the lack of low-risk, high-return financial assets, stable market risk preferences, and the cyclical nature of fixed-income asset management products. Second, the insurance allocation demand will increase. The impact of the insurance product interest rate cut on premiums may be limited, and factors such as the deposit maturity rhythm and the search for capital gains in a low-interest rate environment may increase insurance bond allocation [5][8][11]. 2. Fixed Income Market Outlook: Release of Domestic Economic Data 2.1 This Week's Attention Points and Important Data Releases - This week, China will release economic data for May and the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for June, while the US will announce its interest rate decision for June [16][17]. 2.2 This Week's Estimated Supply of Interest Rate Bonds - This week, it is expected to issue 841.8 billion yuan of interest rate bonds, which is at a high level compared to the same period. Among them, 430 billion yuan of treasury bonds, 261.8 billion yuan of local government bonds, and about 150 billion yuan of policy bank bonds are expected to be issued [17]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest Rate Bonds: Yields Fluctuate Downward 3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Funding Situation - The central bank has net-repurchased reverse repurchases and continued to inject funds through outright repurchases. The net injection of open market operations this week was a net withdrawal of 7.27 billion yuan. The central bank plans to conduct an outright repurchase injection of 40 billion yuan for six months on June 16 [23]. - Funding rates have shown slight fluctuations. The trading volume of interbank pledged repurchase has continued to rise, and the medium- and long-term secondary yields of certificates of deposit (CDs) have declined rapidly [24][26]. 3.2 The Funding Situation is Favorable for the Bond Market - Last week, the bond market fluctuated slightly around the China-US trade talks. The progress was slightly lower than expected, which was favorable for the bond market. Coupled with the loose funding situation and the central bank's support, most bond yields declined. On June 13, the yields of 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year treasury bonds decreased by 1bp, 1bp, 0.1bp, 0.6bp, and 1.1bp respectively compared to the previous week [39]. 4. High-Frequency Data: Improvement in Automobile Retail Data - On the production side, the operating rates are divergent. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, while the semi-steel tire operating rate increased significantly. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and PTA also increased slightly. The year-on-year growth rate of average daily crude steel production in late May further declined [44]. - On the demand side, the year-on-year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail sales by manufacturers have increased. The year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing transaction area has fluctuated significantly. The export indices have shown mixed changes [44]. - On the price side, crude oil prices have increased, while copper and aluminum prices, as well as coal prices, have shown divergent trends. The prices of some midstream and downstream products have also changed to varying degrees [45].

021-38676666 跨季扰动可控，久期行情渐显 [Table_Authors] 张紫睿(分析师) 本报告导读： 登记编号 S0880525040068 理财季末回表是确定性趋势，但考虑到目前信用债供需结构仍有支撑、跨季前后资 金面宽松预期，整体信用债回调压力或较小，跨季后信用债配置需求或快速修复， 中长端利差仍有压降空间。 投资要点： 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 研 究 专 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.16 [Table_Summary] 银行理财规模呈现明显的季末回落、季初回升特征，这与银行季末 考核压力密切相关，同时对信用利差产生一定扰动。季末时，理财 产品需将部分资产回表以满足存款等监管指标，导致理财规模下降， 信用债配置需求阶段性减弱，可能引发短期抛售压力。我们观察历 史季末理财规模变化和信用利差走势可以发现，季末两周的信用利 差上行概率较大，跨季后伴随理财配置力量回升，信用债配置需求 明显增加，带动信用利差有所压降。 二季度理财对信用债净买入规模并不突出，或与平滑估值整改有 关。4、5 月理财对信用债净买入规模分别为 ...