Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. The price of industrial silicon may fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton in the short - term. For polysilicon, the spot price may remain firm under the narrative of capacity restructuring, and the price may operate between 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 355 yuan/ton to 8,390 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot average price of East China oxygen - passing 553 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,050 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8,450 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1,850 yuan/ton to 49,555 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 47,900 yuan/ton [8][9] 2. Slow Resumption of Large Factories in Xinjiang and Fierce Game at the Component Terminal Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated and declined this week. Xinjiang and Ningxia added 8 and 1 furnaces respectively, while Yunnan and Sichuan reduced 1 furnace each. Large factories in Xinjiang resumed 4 furnaces, with slow increase in operation, lower than expected. Southern operation remained stable, and some silicon factories may reduce production in the dry season at the end of October. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 0.16 million tons. It is estimated that industrial silicon will destock about 10,000 tons in August. If the operation of large factories in Xinjiang remains unchanged, it may accumulate about 30,000 tons from September to October and destock about 100,000 tons from November to December. However, if large factories in Xinjiang resume full production, it may be difficult to destock during the dry season [1][10] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon fluctuated this week. Due to equipment maintenance, the weekly output decreased. The overall enterprise operation rate was 72.71%, and the weekly output was 48,100 tons, a decrease of 4.37% week - on - week. New orders were limited, and inventory slightly accumulated. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will oscillate at a low level [10][11] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward this week. The average spot transaction price increased due to downstream restocking. As of the end of August, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 213,000 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory may rise to 220,000 - 250,000 tons. The production in September may increase to 132,000 tons. There are rumors of strict production and sales restrictions starting from September. The first - stage price regulation of polysilicon "anti - involution" is basically determined, and the second - stage upward force may come from the relief fund and capacity restructuring plan [2][12] Silicon Wafers - The transaction price of silicon wafers increased this week. The inventory of silicon wafer factories was 18.05GW as of August 28, an increase of 0.64GW month - on - month. The production in September may increase, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [13] Battery Cells - The transaction price of battery cells increased this week. The inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 7.03GW as of August 25, an increase of 1.22GW month - on - month. The production in September may increase, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [13] Components - The component price increased slightly this week. New orders were few, and most were executing previous orders. The centralized project delivery price was around 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/watt, and some distributed projects could accept prices above 0.7 yuan/watt. Component and terminal are in a fierce game. Component prices are expected to rise, but terminal demand may decline [14] 3. Investment Suggestions - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption progress of large factories in Xinjiang and focus on range - trading opportunities. - Polysilicon: Adopt a callback - buying strategy. Consider 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunities at around - 2,000 yuan/ton [3][15] 4. Hot News Sorting - The winning candidates for the second batch of photovoltaic project component procurement of China Resources Power in 2025 were announced. - Daquan Energy's revenue in the first half of 2025 was 1.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 67.93%. The company will continue the production - reduction strategy in the third quarter [16] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - The report provides multiple charts to track high - frequency data of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, inventory, and profit data [17][26][30][34][40][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the supply side is expected to continue to resume production, and there are expectations of production cuts in downstream polysilicon. The pressure on the inventory side has not improved, so the futures prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. For polysilicon, the fundamentals show an increase in both supply and demand, with expectations of double production cuts later, and the terminal installation willingness continues to shrink. The price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [9][10]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side disturbances are cooling down, and the demand schedule for September is relatively optimistic. However, the inventory transfer from upstream to downstream continues, and the return of goods from downstream weakens the transmission of increased demand. The fundamentals have limited support for the futures price, and it is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [83][84]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the dollar index, exchange rate CNH, copper (both Shanghai and London), aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel. For example, the dollar index is at 97.8477, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a weekly increase of 0.13%, and an annual decrease of 9.80%. Industrial silicon is at 8390 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.10%, a weekly decline of 4.06%, and an annual decline of 23.62% [6]. - **New Energy Metals**: The price of industrial silicon is 8390 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.10%, a weekly decline of 4.06%, and an annual decline of 23.62%. The price of lithium carbonate is 77180 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.23%, a weekly decline of 2.25%, and an annual increase of 0.10% [6]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 9.00 tons, a 2.25% increase from the previous week. The number of operating furnaces is 281, an increase of 12 from the previous week. In the main production areas, Xinjiang's weekly production is 4.13 tons, a 2.23% increase, with 8 more operating furnaces; Inner Mongolia's weekly production is 1.05 tons, remaining the same, with 1 more operating furnace; Yunnan's weekly production is 1.32 tons, a 3.12% increase, with 2 more operating furnaces; Sichuan's weekly production is 1.29 tons, a 1.57% increase, with the same number of operating furnaces [9]. - **Demand Side**: For polysilicon, the weekly production is 2.99 tons, a 0.67% increase, the factory inventory is 23.30 tons, a 4.91% decrease, and the profit per ton is about 61.54 yuan, a 45 - yuan increase. For organic silicon, the DMC weekly production is 4.81 tons, a 4.37% decrease, the factory inventory is 4.93 tons, a 1.02% increase, and the gross profit per ton is - 1859.38 yuan, a 200 - yuan increase per ton [9]. - **Inventory Side**: The explicit inventory is 68.82 tons, a 0.34% decrease, with a 19.32% increase compared to the same period last year. The industry inventory is 43.59 tons, a 0.34% decrease. The market inventory is 17.45 tons, remaining the same, and the factory inventory is 26.14 tons, a 0.57% decrease. The warehouse - receipt inventory is 25.23 tons, a 0.34% decrease [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9092 yuan, remaining the same, and the profit per ton is 123 yuan, a 12 - yuan decrease per ton. In the main production areas, the average profit per ton in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan is 504, 131, and 200 yuan respectively, a decrease of 33, 0, and 5 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [9]. - **Investment View**: The supply side continues to resume production, there are expectations of production cuts in downstream polysilicon, and the inventory pressure has not improved. It is expected that the futures price will be weak in the short - term [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation [9]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 2.99 tons, a 0.67% increase. In the main production areas, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan have weekly productions of 1.09, 0.57, 0.29, and 0.40 tons respectively, with Xinjiang having a 0.88% increase [10]. - **Demand Side**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.73GW, a 1.22% increase. The factory inventory is 18.05GW, a 3.68% increase. In July, the production of silicon wafers was 52.75GW, a 10.35% decrease compared to the previous month and a 0.60% decrease compared to the same period last year. In August, the scheduled production is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase compared to the previous month and a 2.04% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. - **Inventory Side**: The factory inventory is 23.30 tons, a 4.91% decrease, and the registered warehouse receipts are 20640 tons, a 5.20% increase [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41368 yuan, a 0.21% decrease, and the profit per ton is 6109 yuan, a 2324 - yuan increase [10]. - **Investment View**: Fundamentally, both supply and demand increase, with expectations of double production cuts later. The terminal installation willingness continues to shrink, and there is no significant positive news in the short - term. The price may oscillate weakly, with support considered at the full - cost level [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation [10]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 1.90 tons, a 0.56% decrease. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene is 12249 tons, a 0.57% increase; from lithium mica is 2500 tons, a 5.66% decrease; and from salt lakes is 2515 tons, a 1.45% decrease. In July, the production of lithium carbonate was 8.15 tons, a 4.41% increase compared to the previous month, a 26.00% increase compared to the same period last year, and 0.47% higher than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is about 8.42 tons, a 3.27% increase compared to the previous month and a 37.29% increase compared to the same period last year [84]. - **Import Side**: In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 1.38 tons, a 21.77% decrease compared to the previous month and a 42.67% decrease compared to the same period last year. The import volume of spodumene concentrate was 57.61 tons, a 34.73% increase compared to the previous month and a 4.82% increase compared to the same period last year [84]. - **Demand Side**: For lithium - iron materials, the weekly production is 6.99 tons, a 1.03% decrease, and the factory inventory is 9.45 tons, a 0.91% increase. In July, the production was 29.07 tons, a 1.86% increase compared to the previous month, a 50.00% increase compared to the same period last year, and 1.07% lower than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is 31.14 tons, a 7.12% increase compared to the previous month and a 47.24% increase compared to the same period last year. For ternary materials, the weekly production is 1.76 tons, a 0.17% increase, and the factory inventory is 1.78 tons, a 1.22% increase. In July, the production was 6.86 tons, a 5.75% increase compared to the previous month, a 16.70% increase compared to the same period last year, and 4.38% higher than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is about 7.08 tons, a 3.07% increase compared to the previous month and a 14.34% increase compared to the same period last year. In July, the production of new energy vehicles was 124.30 million, a 1.95% decrease compared to the previous month and a 26.27% increase compared to the same period last year; the sales volume was 126.20 million, a 5.05% decrease compared to the previous month and a 27.41% increase compared to the same period last year. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in July was 48.67%, a 2.91 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous month [84]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 14.11 tons, a 0.29% decrease. The inventory of lithium - salt factories is 4.33 tons, a 7.49% decrease, and the inventory of downstream sectors (cathode factories, battery factories, and traders) is 9.78 tons, a 3.28% increase. The cathode - factory inventory is 5.28 tons, a 2.51% increase, and the inventory of battery factories and traders is 4.50 tons, a 4.19% increase. The inventory center continues to shift from upstream to downstream, and the actual production consumption is small, mostly belonging to inventory transfer between different links. The warehouse - receipt inventory is 2.99 tons, a 22.89% increase [84]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium mica is 80022 yuan/ton, a 5.71% decrease, and the production profit is - 3245 yuan/ton, a 250 - yuan decrease. The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene is 76440 yuan/ton, a 4.92% decrease, and the production profit is 2418 yuan/ton, a 1195 - yuan decrease. The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from integrated production using lithium mica is 61721 yuan/ton, and from spodumene is 52787 yuan/ton [84]. - **Investment View**: The supply - side disturbances are cooling down, and the demand schedule for September is relatively optimistic. However, the inventory transfer from upstream to downstream continues, and the return of goods from downstream weakens the transmission of increased demand. The fundamentals have limited support for the futures price, and it is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [84]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting saw the Fed Chair's dovish stance, increasing the certainty of a September rate cut, but short - term leveraged funds flowing in too quickly pose risks to the stock index, which may face a slight shock adjustment [3]. - The bond market lacks its own drivers, and its sentiment is significantly suppressed by the equity market. It is in a range - bound state, and the short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates [3]. - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continues to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals are strengthening and approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range [3]. - The EC main contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a weak trend [3]. - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and iron ore follows steel prices, with a trading range of 770 - 820 [3]. - Copper prices have weak short - term drivers and are in a narrow - range shock [3]. - The supply and demand pressure of PX is not large, but the short - term driver is limited; PTA is under short - term pressure in a weak market atmosphere, but the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - The inventory of bottle chips has decreased, and it follows the raw materials, with limited short - term processing fee upward space [3]. - The overseas supply outlook for sugar is relatively loose, and the short - selling position should be held [3]. - The issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas for cotton is lower than expected, and the 01 contract is short - term strong [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 0.05%, 0.06%, - 0.36%, and - 0.67% respectively. The technology main line strongly pulled up, and the stock index reversed intraday. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next - round direction [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market is strong, and the bond market sentiment is weak again, in a range - bound state. The short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract around 107.4 - 107.6. The short - term bond futures can be temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is in a shock - strengthening trend. Hold the bull spread strategy of buying gold option AIU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792; hold the long position of silver [3]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract shows a weak trend. Short the 12 - contract on rallies [3]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and it is recommended to wait and see. Iron ore follows steel prices, with a range of 770 - 820, and a strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be adopted. Coking coal and coke can be short - sold on rallies, and long iron ore and short coke/coal strategies can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are in a narrow - range shock, with a reference range of 78000 - 80000. Aluminum should pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled, with a reference range of 20400 - 21000 and pay attention to the 21000 pressure level [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX, pay attention to the support around 6800 and look for low - buying opportunities; for PTA, pay attention to the support around 4750 and look for low - buying opportunities, and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [3]. Agricultural Products - Short - sell sugar. Cotton's 01 contract is short - term strong. Eggs are still bearish in the long - term, and short positions should be held [3]. Special Commodities - For glass, the previous short positions can be closed out at a stage. For rubber, if the raw material supply increases smoothly, short on rallies [3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Carbonate Lithium**: The spot price of carbonate lithium is falling, and the futures price has also dropped significantly. The "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season is approaching, and downstream demand has certain rigid support. The supply reduction speed has slowed down, and the inventory decline rate is slower than expected. The price is still hard to stabilize, and it is recommended to seize hedging opportunities [2][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply is steadily increasing, while the demand is weak. The inventory is difficult to decrease, and the spot price is expected to continue to operate weakly and stably. The futures price is in a confrontation between weak reality and strong policy expectations, and is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Polysilicon**: There is a confrontation between strong policy expectations and weak reality, and the support of policy expectations has weakened. The demand is weak, but the spot price has not changed yet. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider participating with a stop - loss [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Pressure Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 11 | Driven by news | 72,000 - 75,000 | 88,000 - 90,000 | Wide - range volatile operation | Seize selling hedging opportunities, downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stockpiling or buying hedging [15] | | Industrial Silicon 11 | Confrontation between weak reality and strong policy expectations | 8,200 - 8,300 | 8,900 - 9,000 | Range - bound oscillation | Adopt a range - bound thinking, and it is more recommended to sell slightly out - of - the - money put options at low levels [15] | | Polysilicon 11 | Insufficient support from policy expectations, increasing concerns about weak demand reality | 45,000 - 46,000 | 52,000 - 53,000 | High - level oscillation | Wait and see [15] | 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 78,140 | - 0.91% | 805,585 | 347,063 | - 4,259 | 28,957 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,570 | 0.53% | 293,193 | 273,754 | - 1,804 | 50,656 | | Polysilicon | 49,665 | - 0.10% | 376,304 | 143,912 | - 10,625 | 6,880 | [16] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: This week, the production of carbonate lithium was 19,030 tons, a decrease of 108 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory was 141,136 tons, a decrease of 407 tons. The supply reduction speed has slowed down, and the inventory decline rate is slower than expected [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season is approaching, and downstream demand has certain rigid support. After the rapid increase in downstream inventory, the probability of further large - scale replenishment may decrease [2]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: The supply is steadily increasing, and the industry operating rate has recovered to over 60%. The inventory is difficult to decrease, and the exchange warehouse receipts increased last week [6]. - **Downstream Situation**: Downstream demand is weak. The demand for polysilicon is mainly for rigid procurement, the demand for organic silicon is weak, and the aluminum alloy is in the traditional off - season. Although the export of industrial silicon is increasing, it has limited impact on the overall demand [6]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: No specific production and inventory data are provided, but it is mentioned that the battery cell inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks [9]. - **Downstream Situation**: The new photovoltaic installed capacity has declined significantly since June, and domestic installation projects have been postponed. The overseas stocking window for battery cells is coming to an end, and the demand is weak [9].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights a significant decline in China's polysilicon imports in June 2025, with a volume of 0.11 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 70.4% [1] - The import value for the same period was $0.31 billion, which reflects a year-on-year drop of 65.4% [1] Industry Overview - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services, including feasibility studies and customized reports [1] - The firm has over a decade of experience in the industry research field, emphasizing quality service and market insight to support investment decisions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Affected by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, market sentiment is positive, driving up rubber prices. However, the trading atmosphere in the spot market has cooled, and tire factories are cautious about purchasing high - priced raw materials, limiting the upside of rubber prices. It is expected that rubber prices will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the 01 contract's range referring to 15,000 - 16,500. Follow the raw material supply situation during the peak production season in the main producing areas, and consider short - selling at high levels if the raw material supply is smooth [1]. Polysilicon - In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increased, but the supply growth rate was larger, still facing inventory accumulation pressure. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit likely to be between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. When the price is high, consider buying put options to short when the volatility is low [3]. Industrial Silicon - From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, raising the cost center of industrial silicon. Although the current output of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will weaken. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and the main price fluctuation range may be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Logs - The current main contract has switched to the 2511 contract, and the disk valuation fluctuates around the delivery cost and the receiving value range. There is an expectation of marginal improvement in the follow - up fundamentals. The demand is currently firm, maintaining at the level of 60,000 cubic meters. The inventory continues to decline due to less unloading at ports and strong outbound volume. It is expected that the overall shipment in September will be the same as that in August. The new warehouse receipts being registered may suppress the disk. It is recommended to go long on dips [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The impact of the coking coal event is gradually weakening, and the futures market continues to weaken. The weekly output has rebounded significantly, and the inventory is in a continuous pattern. The current weekly output corresponds to an obvious excess of demand. In the medium - term, after the photovoltaic rush installation in the second quarter, the growth of photovoltaic glass capacity has slowed down, and the float glass capacity has remained flat. There is still pressure on supply and demand in the future, and there may be further cold - repair expectations. Therefore, there is no growth expectation for the overall demand of soda ash. It is recommended to hold short positions [7]. - **Glass**: The impact of the coking coal event is gradually weakening, and the futures market continues to weaken. The middle - stream continuous shipment suppresses the spot price, and manufacturers are forced to cut prices. The market negative feedback continues. The near - month 09 contract has a weak reality, and the far - month 01 contract has a weak expectation. The deep - processing orders are weak, and the low - e glass production rate is continuously low. There is a certain pressure on the rigid demand side of glass. In the long - run, at the bottom of the real estate cycle, the completion volume is shrinking, and the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply dilemma. High - level short positions established earlier can be closed for profit, waiting for new logical drivers [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 50 yuan to 14,900 yuan, a decline of 0.33% from August 26th. The full - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 75 yuan to - 860 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.02% [1]. Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 40 yuan, a rise of 4.02%; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5 yuan, a rise of 5.56%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 45 yuan, a decline of 4.15% [1]. Production and Consumption Analysis - In June, Thailand's production was 392,600 tons, a 44.23% increase from the previous value; Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, a 12.03% decrease; India's production was 62,400 tons, a 30.82% increase; China's production was 103,200 tons, a 7.05% increase. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.13%, a 1.06 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires was 64.76%, a 1.67 - percentage - point increase. In July, domestic tire production was 94.364 million units, an 8.16% decrease; tire exports were 66.65 million units, a 10.51% increase. The total import volume of natural rubber was 474,800 tons, a 2.47% increase [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory decreased by 3,121 tons to 616,731 tons, a 0.50% decrease; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 1,612 tons to 44,857 tons, a 3.47% decrease [1]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 49,000 yuan; the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 2,295 yuan to 310 yuan, a 115.62% increase [3]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The main contract price decreased by 2,295 yuan to 48,690 yuan, a 4.50% decrease. The spread between the current month and the next - month contract increased by 160 yuan, a 266.67% increase [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The silicon wafer output was 12.29 GW, a 1.57% increase; the polysilicon output was 2.91 kilotons, a 0.68% decrease. Monthly: The polysilicon output was 101 kilotons, a 5.10% increase; the polysilicon import volume was 0.12 kilotons, a 47.48% increase; the polysilicon export volume was 0.21 kilotons, a 3.92% decrease [3]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.7 kilotons to 24.9 kilotons, a 2.89% increase; the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.39 GW to 17.41 GW, a 12.07% decrease; the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 10 lots to 6,880 lots [3]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 9,300 yuan, a 0.53% decrease; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) decreased by 80 yuan to 775 yuan, a 7.19% decrease [4]. Inter - month Spread - The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan to - 25 yuan, a 16.67% increase; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 5 yuan to - 12 yuan, a 25.00% increase [4]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon output was 338.3 kilotons, a 3.23% increase; the Xinjiang industrial silicon output was 150.3 kilotons, a 15.21% decrease; the Yunnan industrial silicon output was 41.2 kilotons, a 153.86% increase [4]. Inventory Change - The Xinjiang inventory increased by 0.31 kilotons to 12.01 kilotons, a 2.65% increase; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.05 kilotons to 3.19 kilotons, a 1.59% increase [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - The price of log 2509 decreased by 9.5 yuan to 792 yuan, a 1.19% decrease; the 09 contract basis increased by 9.5 yuan to - 42 yuan [6]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.156, an increase of 0.002; the import theoretical cost was 815.74 yuan, an increase of 0.20 yuan [6]. Supply (Monthly) - The port shipment volume was 1.733 million cubic meters, a 1.51% decrease; the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 47, an 11.32% decrease [6]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - The national log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a 0.33% decrease; the Shandong inventory was 1.86 million cubic meters, a 0.32% increase [6]. Demand: Daily Outbound Volume (Weekly) - The national daily outbound volume was 64,500 cubic meters, a 2% increase; the Shandong daily outbound volume was 34,900 cubic meters, a 3% decrease [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass quotation remained unchanged at 1,140 yuan; the glass 2505 contract price increased by 1 yuan to 1,267 yuan, a 0.08% increase; the 05 contract basis decreased by 1 yuan to - 127 yuan, a 0.79% decrease [7]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quotation remained unchanged at 1,350 yuan; the soda ash 2505 contract price decreased by 2 yuan to 1,375 yuan, a 0.15% decrease; the 05 contract basis increased by 2 yuan to - 25 yuan, a 7.41% increase [7]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate was 88.48%, a 1.33% increase; the weekly soda ash output was 771.4 kilotons, a 1.33% increase; the float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 159,600 tons [7]. Inventory - The glass market inventory increased by 18 kilotons to 6,360.6 kilotons, a 0.28% increase; the soda ash factory inventory increased by 17 kilotons to 1,910.6 kilotons, a 0.89% increase [7]. Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year Monthly) - The new construction area growth rate was - 0.09%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points; the construction area growth rate was 0.05%, a 2.43 - percentage - point decrease; the completion area growth rate was - 0.22%, a 0.03 - percentage - point decrease; the sales area growth rate was - 6.55%, a 6.50 - percentage - point decrease [7].

Core Viewpoint - Daqo Energy (688303) reported a significant decline in financial performance for the first half of 2025, with total revenue dropping by 67.93% year-on-year to 1.47 billion yuan and a net loss of 1.15 billion yuan, a 71.1% decrease compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.47 billion yuan, down from 4.58 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 67.93% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.15 billion yuan, compared to -670 million yuan in 2024, marking a decline of 71.1% [1] - Gross margin fell to -34.05%, a decrease of 1392.89% year-on-year, while net margin dropped to -78.0%, down 433.5% [1] - The total of selling, administrative, and financial expenses reached 159 million yuan, accounting for 10.82% of total revenue, an increase of 776.53% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share were -0.53 yuan, a decrease of 70.97% from the previous year [1] Changes in Financial Items - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by 66.86% due to funds being allocated to time deposits and structured deposits [3] - Accounts receivable increased by 118.26% as the semiconductor business expanded [3] - Contract liabilities decreased by 44.64% due to falling prices and sales volumes of polysilicon [4] - Accounts payable rose by 267.9% as new bank acceptances were issued for operational expenses [3] Cost and Expense Analysis - Operating costs decreased by 55.84% due to lower sales volumes [4] - Selling expenses fell by 27.0% as overall spending decreased with reduced sales scale [4] - Administrative expenses decreased by 16.44% due to the expiration of employee stock incentives [5] - Financial expenses increased by 106.12% due to lower bank deposit balances and interest rates [6] - R&D expenses decreased by 61.12% as project scales were reduced [7] Cash Flow Analysis - Net cash flow from operating activities improved by 53.6% due to lower unit cash costs and reduced output [7] - Net cash flow from investing activities decreased by 83.15% as there were no new projects [7] - Net cash flow from financing activities decreased by 99.97% as there were no cash dividends due to last year's losses [7] Market Position and Future Outlook - Analysts expect Daqo Energy's performance for 2025 to be a net loss of 1.58 billion yuan, with an average earnings per share of -0.74 yuan [8] - The company's historical financial performance shows a median ROIC of 14.44%, but the worst year recorded a ROIC of -5.91%, indicating a fragile business model [7]

Core Viewpoint - The multi-crystalline silicon market in China remains stable with slight price fluctuations, driven by supply-demand dynamics and production adjustments by manufacturers [1][2]. Price Summary - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 46,000 to 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,900 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week [1]. - The average transaction price for n-type granular silicon is 47,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.17% [1][2]. - The main order prices for rod silicon remain stable, while smaller orders and granular silicon prices have increased by 1 yuan/kg [1]. Market Dynamics - The number of main signing enterprises in the multi-crystalline silicon market has decreased to 3-4, indicating a reduction in market activity [1]. - One new silicon material enterprise has resumed production, bringing the total number of operating multi-crystalline silicon enterprises in China to 10 [1]. - Companies are independently reducing production and controlling sales, while downstream demand for inventory has increased, contributing to a bullish sentiment in the industry [1]. Production Outlook - The expected production volume for September is around 125,000 to 130,000 tons, down from the original planned production of 140,000 tons [1]. - Silicon wafer enterprises plan to reduce their operating rates to alleviate supply-demand pressure in the silicon wafer segment [1]. - The multi-crystalline silicon segment continues to face inventory accumulation risks, indicating that the supply-demand fundamentals have not significantly improved [1].

Group 1: Company Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.775 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.34% due to losses in the photovoltaic sector and inventory write-downs [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was -397 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 140.60%, marking a shift from profit to loss compared to the same period last year [1] - Despite the losses, the company's operating cash flow net amount reached 3.524 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 1,987.93% [1] Group 2: Industry Trends and Challenges - The overall demand for industrial silicon is weak, leading to low operating rates for polysilicon and a downward trend in prices, creating a negative feedback loop of "high inventory - low prices - weak demand" across the industry [2] - In the first half of 2025, domestic industrial silicon capacity was approximately 1.85 million tons, with new capacity in the northwest filling the gap during the southwest's dry season, but high inventory levels continued to push prices down [2] - The polysilicon production volume decreased by 44% year-on-year due to inventory accumulation and self-discipline in production limits within the photovoltaic industry [2] Group 3: Policy and Strategic Responses - A recent meeting by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aimed to regulate competition in the photovoltaic industry, with agreements among several silicon material companies on production cuts and sales volume control [3] - The company plans to focus on the progress of the photovoltaic industry's "anti-involution" measures and changes in polysilicon operating rates, as well as the demand from emerging industries for organic silicon [3] - The company has implemented several "anti-involution" strategies, including optimizing production processes and enhancing digital transformation to improve efficiency and reduce energy consumption [4] Group 4: Research and Development Initiatives - The company has made significant advancements in new downstream products, including amino silicone oil and silicone emulsions, which meet international standards and cater to the textile and cosmetics industries [5] - The company is actively developing new products in the organic silicon sector, with a focus on applications in electric vehicle battery sealing, 5G base station cooling, and medical-grade silicone [5] - The company has achieved a leading position in the domestic carbon silicon industry, with a 95% yield for 6-inch carbon silicon substrates and ongoing development of 8-inch and 12-inch substrates [6]

Core Insights - The price range for n-type polysilicon recycled materials is between 46,000 to 51,000 CNY per ton, with an average price of 47,900 CNY per ton, remaining stable week-on-week [1] - The average transaction price for n-type granular silicon has increased by 2.17% week-on-week to 47,000 CNY per ton [1] - The number of main signing enterprises in the polysilicon market has decreased to 3-4, indicating a reduction in market activity [1] Price Trends - The price of n-type recycled materials is stable, while n-type granular silicon prices have seen a slight increase [2] - The average price for n-type recycled materials is 47,900 CNY per ton, with no fluctuation [2] - The average price for n-type granular silicon is 47,000 CNY per ton, reflecting a 0.10 CNY increase [2] Market Dynamics - There has been a reduction in the signing volume of polysilicon, with some downstream companies extending their delivery periods to October to secure supply [1] - The market sentiment remains optimistic due to self-reduction in production by companies and increased stocking demand from downstream [1] - The total production of polysilicon in September is expected to be around 125,000 to 130,000 tons, down from the original plan of 140,000 tons [1] Industry Participants - The price statistics are based on data from nine polysilicon production companies, which account for 87% of domestic production [2][3] - The companies involved include Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited, and Xinjiang Goin Technology Co., Ltd., among others [3]