2025 年 7 月 8 日星期二 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 日 水 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | | 4 | | 股指: | | 4 | | 贵金属: | . | C ST | | 螺纹、热卷: | | C ST | | 铁矿石: | | ( | | 焦煤焦炭: . | | | | 铁合金: | | 1 | | 原油: | | 1 – | | 燃料油: | | C | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | .. | 10 | | PVC: | .. | | | 尿素: | .. | | | 对二甲苯 PX: | ... 11 | | | PTA: 11 | | | | 乙二醇: . | | | | 短纤: . | | | | 瓶片: | .. | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 纸浆: | .. | | | 碳酸锂: ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being rated as "oscillating", including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and ferromanganese [7][10][12][14][15]. Core Viewpoints - The black spot market has been mediocre recently, with capital issues not significantly alleviated and weak terminal demand making it difficult for spot prices to rise. The futures market is more driven by expectations, and with the improving domestic and international macro - environment, the overall commodity valuation has increased. The furnace materials with relatively more certain demand perform better than finished products. After the price spike, it is advisable to wait and see for the next two weeks to observe the sustainability of steel demand [1]. - The "anti - involution" - related production cut expectations' positive impact has temporarily ended. The price increase has affected the export orders of finished products, and the spot price increase is weak. The black futures prices have slightly corrected. The industrial fundamentals are currently in a relatively balanced state, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the degree of demand weakening [2]. Summary by Variety Steel - Core Logic: On July 4, 2025, Vietnam imposed a final anti - dumping duty of 23.01 - 27.83% on Chinese hot - rolled coils, and the US President will not extend the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline. High prices have limited downstream purchasing willingness. After the rainy season, the supply and demand of rebar have both increased, and the inventory has continued to decline; the supply of hot - rolled coils has increased while the demand has decreased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased, and the inventory change is limited [7]. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of steel are not prominent, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. Overseas tariff disturbances are continuous. After the steel price increase, the steel export pressure shows signs of marginal weakening. It is expected that the short - term steel price will oscillate [7]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: This week, overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter production rush, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but is lower than expected. The steel enterprises' iron water output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrival volume and high demand, the port inventory has slightly decreased [7]. - Outlook: The iron ore demand is at a high level, and the fundamental contradictions are not obvious. After this round of increase, the futures price has reached an important pressure level. It is expected that the iron ore price will oscillate in the short - term [7]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel has decreased this week, and the demand has also declined. The long - and short - process total daily consumption of scrap steel has decreased, and the factory inventory has slightly decreased [8]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of scrap steel have both weakened marginally, and it is expected that the price will oscillate after the macro - environment cools down [8]. Coke - Core Logic: The supply and demand of coke have both declined. Most coke enterprises maintain normal production, while a small number have reduced production due to profit pressure. The steel mills' iron water output has decreased, but the demand for coke remains strong [10]. - Outlook: There is an expectation of a price increase in the coke market. It is expected that the short - term futures price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the iron water output and coal mine resumption [10]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: Two coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production, and the overall supply is gradually recovering. The Mongolian coal port transactions are active, but the port will be closed from this Friday to next Tuesday. The short - term demand for coking coal remains, but the market is waiting and seeing due to the expectation of coal mine resumption [10]. - Outlook: The coal mine supply is expected to recover, but the short - term demand remains strong. It is expected that the short - term futures price will oscillate [10]. Glass - Core Logic: In the off - season, the demand for glass has decreased, and the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line is planned to resume production. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased. The market is worried about supply - side production cuts, and the market is mainly in a wait - and - see state [12]. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, and the futures price has rebounded due to the expected production cuts. In the short - term, the positive feedback may be strong, but in the long - term, it still needs market - based capacity reduction. It is expected that the price will oscillate [12]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply capacity of soda ash has not been cleared, and the supply pressure remains. The heavy - soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand, while the light - soda ash demand is weak. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and it is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [12]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern of soda ash has not changed. There are planned maintenance in July. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the price center will decline in the long - term [12]. Ferromanganese - Core Logic: The price of manganese ore has slightly decreased. The supply of ferromanganese has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and the demand is expected to decline slightly as the steel production may decrease in the off - season [14]. - Outlook: The cost push is insufficient, and the supply - demand relationship of ferromanganese is becoming looser. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short - term [14]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The cost of ferrosilicon is stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand from the steel and metal magnesium industries has uncertainties. The current supply - demand relationship is healthy, but the future supply - demand gap may be filled [15]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, but the price increase driving force is insufficient. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short - term [15].

黑色建材日报 2025-07-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3061 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨（-0.35%）。当日注册仓单 36441 吨, 环比增加 7273 吨。主力合约持仓量为 219.733 万手，环比减少 41257 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3191 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 10 元/吨（-0.31%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 158.5555 万手，环比增 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 7 月 8 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stocks: Short - term shock, biased towards strong operation, short - term cautious long [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term high - level shock, cautious observation [2] - Commodities: - Black: Short - term low - level shock rebound, short - term cautious long [2] - Non - ferrous: Short - term shock correction, short - term cautious observation [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious observation [2] - Precious metals: Short - term high - level shock, cautious long [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US has postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date and imposed new tariffs on some countries, increasing short - term tariff risks and cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, the June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date from July 9th to August 1st, sent letters to 14 countries about new tariffs (25% on Japan and South Korea), increasing short - term tariff risks, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite cooled [2]. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated; domestic consumption policy stimulus increased, and the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized "anti - involution", which helped boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets, RMB appreciation, and continued warming of domestic market sentiment led to an increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks short - term shock, biased towards strong; treasury bonds short - term high - level shock; black commodities short - term low - level shock rebound; non - ferrous short - term shock correction; energy and chemicals short - term shock; precious metals short - term high - level shock [2]. 3.2 Stocks - Driven by sectors such as CSSC, power, and cross - border payment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. China's June PMI data continued to rise, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. The current trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward drivers weakened. Short - term cautious long [3]. 3.3 Precious metals - Trump's tariff announcements increased market risk - aversion sentiment, but the strengthening US dollar and better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data, as well as the Fed's cautious attitude, put pressure on precious metals. The "Big Beautiful Act" provides long - term support for gold. Tariff disturbances will be the main short - term influencing factor, and gold volatility is expected to rise [4]. 3.4 Black metals 3.4.1 Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets declined slightly, and trading volume remained low. The focus shifted to tariff negotiations. Vietnam imposed anti - dumping tariffs on Chinese hot - rolled steel, and the off - season affected demand. Supply - side production decreased, but finished product output increased slightly. Cost support was strong. Short - term range - bound thinking [5][7]. 3.4.2 Iron ore - Iron ore spot and futures prices declined slightly. Iron production decreased, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. After the end - of - quarter shipment peak, shipping volume decreased, and arrival volume increased slightly. If iron production continues to decline, ore prices may fall [7]. 3.4.3 Silicon manganese/silicon iron - Spot prices were flat. Demand for ferroalloys was okay due to the increase in steel output, but there was a possibility of a decline in finished product output. Manganese ore prices rose. The market was expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. 3.4.4 Soda ash - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the signal of "anti - involution" from the Central Financial and Economic Commission, there were concerns about production capacity withdrawal in the glass industry, which initially drove up the price, but then it fell due to the weak supply - demand situation. Supply decreased due to equipment maintenance, demand increased slightly, and profit decreased. In the long run, supply remained loose, and it was not advisable to go long [9]. 3.4.5 Glass - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, there were expectations of production cuts in the glass industry, which drove up the price. Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and profit was at a low level. Production - cut expectations on the supply side were expected to support prices [10]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and new energy 3.5.1 Copper - The market may fluctuate as the July 9th deadline approaches. The clarity of trade tariffs may help the market rise. China's refined copper production increased in 2025, and inventory was at a medium - low level due to high demand [11]. 3.5.2 Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum fell due to tariff concerns. LME inventory increased, and domestic inventory also increased slightly [11]. 3.5.3 Aluminum alloy - Entered the off - season, demand was weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supported prices. Short - term shock, biased towards strong, but limited upside [11]. 3.5.4 Tin - Supply increased as the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded. Demand was weak in most sectors, and inventory increased. Short - term shock, but high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weakening demand would limit the upside in the medium term [12]. 3.5.5 Lithium carbonate - The main contract price fluctuated slightly. Supply faced a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. Cost support was strong. Viewed as shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.6 Industrial silicon - The main contract price was stable, and the spot price rebounded. Total production decreased due to reduced furnace - opening in the north. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.7 Polysilicon - The main contract price was strong, especially in the far - month contracts. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, expected to be strong, with high price elasticity [13][14]. 3.6 Energy and chemicals 3.6.1 Crude oil - Strong demand offset concerns about OPEC+ production increase and US tariffs. Short - term shock [15]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Oil prices were low, asphalt prices were in shock. Shipping volume decreased, factory inventory decreased slowly, and social inventory increased slightly. Followed crude oil at a high level [15]. 3.6.3 PX - After the decline in crude oil premium, the PX price weakened, and the PXN spread narrowed. PTA production recovery would support PX, and the weakening trend might slow down [15]. 3.6.4 PTA - Spot liquidity improved, inventory increased, and the basis and 9 - 1 spread weakened. Downstream operating rates continued to decline, and PTA prices had room to fall [16]. 3.6.5 Ethylene glycol - Port inventory decreased, supply pressure weakened, but downstream demand limited further inventory reduction. Short - term bottom - building, followed the polyester sector weakly [16]. 3.6.6 Short - fiber - Crude oil price decline drove down short - fiber prices. It followed the polyester sector, with weak terminal orders and high inventory. It would be in a weak shock pattern in the medium term [16]. 3.6.7 Methanol - Domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals provided short - term support, but international production recovery and expected downstream maintenance led to a poor supply - demand outlook. It rebounded slightly under policy influence, with limited upside [16]. 3.6.8 PP - Production - restriction and new capacity coexisted, supply pressure eased slightly. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and oil prices were weak. Prices were expected to fall further [17]. 3.6.9 LLDPE - Equipment maintenance increased, but production was still high year - on - year. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and inventory was expected to increase. Prices were under pressure [17]. 3.7 Agricultural products 3.7.1 Palm oil - As of July 4, 2025, domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in June, exports increased, and inventory was expected to decrease. Concerns about the US EPA hearing [19]. 3.7.2 Corn - Imported corn auctions and new wheat substitution increased supply, and futures prices were expected to weaken. However, it was difficult for futures to trade at a discount. The expected import volume was not expected to affect the new - season market, but there were concerns about pests and diseases [19][21]. 3.7.3 US soybeans - The price of CBOT soybeans fell. The planting area was determined, and weather in the 7 - 8 key growth period was crucial. The current growing environment was good, but the risk of tariff implementation increased export uncertainty [20]. 3.7.4 Soybean and rapeseed meal - Soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal inventory increased. Oil mills had high operating rates, and supply was abundant. The supply pressure in the 09 contract period was difficult to relieve, but short - term stability in US soybeans provided some support [20]. 3.7.5 Soybean and rapeseed oil - Soybean oil production decreased, rapeseed oil inventory decreased slightly. Rapeseed oil was supported by policies and the international market, and soybean oil inventory increased. They lacked an independent market and were affected by palm oil [20]. 3.7.6 Pigs - Leading enterprises had low willingness to increase sales volume and reduce weight. Supply in July was expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea in spring. There was a weak supply - demand situation, and the expected profit in the 8 - 9 peak season was low. Second - fattening was cautious, and the concentrated supply at the end of July and August would limit price increases [21].

Group 1 - Germany is planning to provide billions of euros in subsidies to energy-intensive industries as part of Chancellor Merz's commitment to enhance the competitiveness of German heavy industry, with an estimated investment of around €4 billion [1] - The number of German companies eligible for electricity price subsidies is set to increase from 350 to 2,200, aimed at reducing electricity costs for industrial enterprises [1][2] - The German government emphasizes that supporting industrial enterprises is crucial for maintaining employment amid weak economic growth [1][2] Group 2 - The subsidy plan will cover up to 50% of electricity costs for companies over the next three years, particularly benefiting the chemical, glass, and plastics industries [2] - The plan aligns with the new EU state aid framework, which allows member states to subsidize industrial electricity costs to aid decarbonization efforts [2] - There is ongoing debate regarding the electricity subsidy, with some factions arguing for broader relief measures that include households and smaller businesses [2][4] Group 3 - The expansion of the subsidy reflects Germany's increased support for its industrial sector, particularly in light of significant job losses in the past year [3] - The chemical industry, seen as a barometer for the economy, has shown improved business sentiment, with the business climate index rising significantly [3] - However, there are concerns that the subsidy may undermine incentives for long-term renewable energy contracts and could negatively impact small businesses [4] Group 4 - Germany has one of the highest electricity prices globally, with an average price of €0.38 per kWh in the first quarter of this year [5][6] - The current electricity tax structure places a heavier burden on households compared to industrial users, raising concerns about the government's commitment to reducing energy costs for the public [6] - The new spending plans may conflict with EU fiscal rules, as Germany's federal deficit is projected to increase significantly over the coming years [6]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with a high furnace operating rate holding steady at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][9] - Chemical production shows signs of recovery, with operating rates for soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament increasing by 1.9 percentage points to -3.5%, 0.4 percentage points to 2.2%, and 0.5 percentage points to 4.2% respectively [2][17] - However, the operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires has significantly declined, down 7.7 percentage points to -9.0% [2][17] Group 2: Construction Industry - Asphalt production shows marginal improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2 percentage points to 6.8% [2][41] - Cement shipment rates remain low, down 1.8 percentage points to -4.2% year-on-year, while the national grinding operating rate is up 0.6 percentage points to -1.3% [2][29] Group 3: Demand Trends - Real estate transactions have significantly decreased, with average daily transaction area for new homes down 37.8% year-on-year to 32.7% [2][53] - Freight volumes related to exports have declined, with port cargo throughput down 3% year-on-year to 0.6% [2][62] - Conversely, travel intensity remains high, with the national migration scale index up 0.3 percentage points to 14.5% [2][74] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally decreased, with prices for eggs, fruits, vegetables, and pork down by 2.2%, 0.8%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [3][104] - Industrial product prices have seen a slight increase, with the South China industrial price index rising by 0.3% [3][116] - The metal price index increased by 1.8%, while the energy and chemical price index fell by 1% [3][116] Group 5: Transportation and Logistics - Railway freight volume has increased, up 0.9 percentage points to 3.3% year-on-year, while port cargo throughput has decreased [2][62] - Domestic flight operations have increased, with domestic flights up 1.9% year-on-year to 3.4% [2][74] Group 6: Consumer Behavior - Movie attendance has slightly decreased, down 2.6 percentage points to 5.7% year-on-year, but box office revenue has increased by 0.3% [2][80] - Automobile sales have shown a significant recovery, with retail and wholesale volumes up 9% to 26.7% and 23.8% to 48.7% respectively [2][80] Group 7: Export Trends - Container shipping prices have decreased, with the CCFI composite index down 1.9% [2][92] - The freight rate for the US West Coast has dropped significantly, down 10.5% [2][92]

品种投资策略报告 2025 年 7 月 7 日 正信化工团队 策略提供 黄益 Tel：027-68851659 Email: huangyi@zxqh.net 投资咨询编号：Z0020858 赵婷 Tel：027-68851659 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 服务公众号 正信期货研究院 纯碱：供需宽松，弱势难改 摘要 中期看，纯碱大方向的趋势走弱并没有改变，依旧是以偏空思路对 待。目前上游库存偏高，由于库存分布较为集中，三季度检修季内 若供应端大装置出现意外情况或者宏观政策出台，可能阶段性刺激 盘面，但整体供应压力下预计难有反弹空间。到三季度末随着年度 检修基本结束，纯碱行业将面临较明显的库存压力，届时也可以选 择逢高做空 01 合约，不过由于绝对价格相对低位，轻仓操作为佳。 请仔细阅读最后一条免责条款 1 专业成就未来 半年度报告 品种投资策略报告 目录 请仔细阅读最后一条免责条款 2 专业成就未来 一、行情回顾 二、供给端分析 三、需求端分析 四、库存端分析 五、成本利润端分析 六、总结与展望 品种投资策略报告 一、 行情回顾：供需过剩格局难改，阶段性检修支 ...

Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - The summer travel season has initiated, with Baidu migration index showing a year-on-year increase of 18.2% and domestic flights up by 2.9%[2] - The production of raw materials is recovering, supported by stable prices, with steel output and apparent demand increasing by 0.5% and 1.4% respectively this week[2][5] Group 2: Industrial Sector Insights - The production of five major steel varieties has increased, with glass and asphalt operating rates also improving[2] - Cement clinker capacity utilization has shown marginal adjustments, while the textile polyester operating rate has rebounded[2] Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - New home sales in 30 major cities have seen a decline in average daily transaction area, with a month-on-month decrease noted at the beginning of July[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index has decreased by 0.28% as of June 23[2] Group 4: Domestic Demand Indicators - Retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.032 million units in June, marking a 15% year-on-year growth[2] - Major home appliance retail sales increased by 10.9% year-on-year as of June 27, indicating sustained consumer demand[2] Group 5: External Demand and Risks - Port cargo throughput increased by 0.7% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 3.1%[2] - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[2][32]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with a high furnace operating rate holding steady at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][9] - Chemical production shows signs of recovery, with operating rates for soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament increasing by 1.9 percentage points, 0.4 percentage points, and 0.5 percentage points respectively [2][17] - The automotive sector experiences a significant decline, with the operating rate for semi-steel tires dropping by 7.7 percentage points to 9.0% [2][17] Group 2: Construction Industry - Asphalt production shows marginal improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2 percentage points to 6.8% [2][41] - Cement shipment rates remain low, down 1.8 percentage points to 4.2% year-on-year, indicating weak demand [2][29] - The national grinding operating rate for cement is up 0.6 percentage points to -1.3% year-on-year, but overall demand remains subdued [2][29] Group 3: Demand Trends - Real estate transactions have significantly declined, with average daily transaction area for new homes down 37.8% year-on-year [2][53] - The freight volume related to domestic demand shows a slight increase, while port cargo throughput related to exports has decreased by 3% [2][62] - Travel intensity remains high, with the national migration scale index up 0.3 percentage points to 14.5% year-on-year [2][74] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally decreased, with eggs, fruits, vegetables, and pork prices down by 2.2%, 0.8%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [3][104] - Industrial product prices show a slight increase, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index rising by 0.3% [3][116] - The metal price index increased by 1.8%, while the energy and chemical price index fell by 1% [3][116] Group 5: Transportation and Logistics - Railway freight volume has increased by 0.9 percentage points to 3.3% year-on-year, while port cargo throughput has decreased [2][62] - Domestic flight operations have increased by 1.9% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in travel [2][74] - Container shipping prices have declined, with the CCFI composite index down by 1.9% [2][92]