Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Iron Ore Morning Report on March 19, 2026 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is in a situation of stable supply and weak demand, with the fundamentals being weakly stable and the valuation relatively high. The upward driving force is not strong, and the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3] Key Points by Section Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias". It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line. The core logic is that the positive factors are still at play, and the ore price is operating at a high level [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Port inventories are continuously increasing, the terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining, and demand is weakening. Although subsequent production resumptions will improve demand, the profit situation of steel mills is not good, limiting the incremental space. Meanwhile, the arrival at domestic ports has declined, while the shipments from miners have increased again. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will be stable, and domestic ore supply is continuously recovering, so the ore supply remains stable [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a downward adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.95% to 4024.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.11% to 14030.34 points, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 0.11% to 3342.64 points [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 649 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4400 stocks declining [1][2] Sector Performance - The green energy and computing power sectors showed resilience, with stocks like Jinkai New Energy and Dongfang New Energy hitting the daily limit, while companies in the computing power hardware sector, such as Yuanjie Technology, also saw significant gains [5] - The energy and chemical sectors experienced a strong rally in commodity futures, with fuel oil contracts rising over 11%, methanol up over 10%, and crude oil increasing by over 8% [5] Stock Movements - The optical module index rose over 2%, with notable gains in stocks like Changguang Huaxin and Yuanjie Technology, which increased by over 13% and 8% respectively [6] - Conversely, the non-ferrous metals sector faced declines, with Longda Co. dropping over 9% and several other companies in the sector also experiencing significant losses [6] Corporate Announcements - Xiaomi Group announced the launch of its new electric vehicle, the Xiaomi SU7, with a pre-sale price ranging from 229,900 to 309,900 yuan, and introduced three self-developed large models [6] - Alibaba and Baidu both announced price increases, leading to a collective rise in computing power concept stocks [5] Institutional Activity - New institutional investments were reported, with social security funds entering 11 new heavy positions, indicating potential shifts in market sentiment [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a possibility judgment on various varieties, with a "cautiously bullish" outlook for stock indices (IH, IF, IC, IM), crude oil, methanol, rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, and corn, and a "cautiously bearish" outlook for螺纹, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, and apples [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, raised inflation expectations, and still expects one interest rate cut this year. The situation in the Middle East is tense, which has an impact on the prices of various assets. The prices of U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, gold, and digital currencies have fallen, while the prices of oil and gas and the U.S. dollar have risen [1]. - For precious metals, in the short term, the Fed's hawkish signal and rising inflation pressure suppress prices, but in the long term, factors such as geopolitical risks, anti - inflation needs, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases support the upward trend [2][18]. - For stock indices, in the short term, geopolitical risks affect market sentiment, and there are signs of weakness. In the long term, the trend will return to the domestic fundamentals and policies. The market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven" [3][12]. - For other varieties, the report analyzes the supply and demand, market environment, and price trends of each variety, such as the impact of supply and demand on the prices of rubber, polyolefins, glass, and soda ash, and the impact of production and policy on the prices of agricultural products [15][16][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.当日主要新闻关注 3.1.1 International News - Iran launched the "True Promise - 4" 63rd round of operations, attacking U.S. - related oil and energy facilities in the region as a retaliatory measure for the earlier attack on its energy infrastructure [6]. 3.1.2 Domestic News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a meeting on comprehensively strengthening Party discipline and anti - corruption work in 2026, emphasizing the need to deepen the special governance of corruption in key areas and crack down on those who disrupt the capital market order and harm the interests of small and medium - sized investors [7]. 3.1.3 Industry News - NVIDIA announced a cooperation with Qnity Electronics to jointly develop advanced materials for semiconductors and advanced packaging technologies for artificial intelligence and high - performance computing [9]. 3.2.外盘每日收益情况 - The report shows the daily income of various external market varieties on March 17 and 18, 2026, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, LME aluminum, LME copper, LME zinc, LME nickel, ICE No. 11 sugar, ICE No. 2 cotton, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean meal, CBOT soybean oil, CBOT wheat, and CBOT corn, along with their price changes and percentage changes [10]. 3.3.主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Indices**: Affected by the Fed's interest rate decision and geopolitical factors, the U.S. stock market declined. The stock index rebounded after hitting the bottom. The communication sector led the rise, and the petrochemical sector led the decline. The market turnover was 2.06 trillion yuan. The performance - driven market will gradually replace the expectation - driven market, and stocks without performance support may be weak. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to rise. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 6 billion yuan. The Fed's stance and the tense situation in the Middle East increased inflation expectations. Although the short - term Treasury bond futures prices are supported, the long - term Treasury bond futures prices will be under pressure [14]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical - **Rubber**: The natural rubber is in the low - production season. Although the supply pressure is expected to increase due to the early opening of the domestic Yunnan production area, the current output is still small. The demand for all - steel tires is stable, and the rubber price is expected to be weak in the short term [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins fluctuated widely on Wednesday and rose sharply at night. The situation in the Middle East has an impact on oil prices and the chemical market. The future trend depends on the actual start - up of devices and the support of demand [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass and soda ash futures prices declined. The inventory of glass production enterprises decreased last week, and the inventory of soda ash production enterprises also decreased. In the future, the digestion of glass inventory and the supply - demand pattern of soda ash need to be concerned [17]. 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals fluctuated downward in the short term due to the Fed's hawkish signal and rising inflation pressure. In the long term, the price center will continue to rise due to multiple factors [18][19]. - **Copper**: The copper price decreased at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the smelting profit is at the break - even point. The copper price may fluctuate in the short term, and factors such as the U.S. dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand need to be concerned [20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price decreased at night. The supply of zinc concentrates is temporarily tight, and the smelting output continues to increase. The zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals, and factors such as the U.S. dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand need to be concerned [21]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price remained flat at night. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, some aluminum plants are looking for alternative import and export routes, and two aluminum plants have announced production cuts. The aluminum price has support at the bottom [22]. 3.3.4 Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated at night. The supply pressure of coking coal is increasing, but with the end of environmental protection restrictions and the resumption of production, the iron water output is expected to increase, and the market should not be overly pessimistic [23]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The soybean meal price fluctuated and rose at night. Although the South American soybean harvest is in progress, some institutions have lowered their production forecasts for Brazilian soybeans. The U.S. biofuel policy may boost soybean demand, but the domestic supply is still abundant in the medium term, which suppresses the price [24]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price of oils and fats fluctuated strongly at night. The palm oil production in Southeast Asia will increase, but the geopolitical conflict may limit palm oil exports, and the U.S. biofuel policy will boost soybean oil demand. The price will fluctuate greatly in the short term [26]. - **Pigs**: The pig market is in a weak consolidation pattern. The supply exceeds the demand, and the terminal demand is weak, so the pig price lacks upward support and is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [27]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar price rose overnight. The situation in Iran may affect the ethanol - to - sugar price ratio, and the sugar production ratio in the 26/27 season may decline. The domestic sugar price is boosted by the external market, and the impact of the macro environment needs to be concerned [28]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price fluctuated overnight. The issuance of additional cotton import quotas may put short - term pressure on the cotton price, but in the long term, the supply is expected to be tight, and the overall trend remains unchanged [29]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index decreased by 1.71%. The shipping price of the European line has gradually returned to the supply - demand pricing, and the sentiment is still affected by geopolitical changes. The actual cargo volume is expected to increase in April, and the price increase by shipping companies needs to be concerned [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information regarding industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, and domestic economic recovery. Different sectors show various trends, and investors are advised to take different strategies according to the specific situation of each sector [6][9][12] - The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, and the market expects cautious monetary policy. The Middle - East conflict has a significant impact on the market, increasing uncertainty and volatility [6] 3. Summary by Directory Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - The previous trading day saw all treasury bond futures close higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.23%, 0.12%, 0.08%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank conducted 205 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 60 billion yuan on the day [5] - The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and the Middle - East conflict have increased the uncertainty of the US economy. The domestic macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond market is expected to face certain pressure, so it is advisable to be cautious [6] Equity Index Futures - The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 main contracts changed by 0.14%, - 0.38%, 0.77%, and 0.68% respectively [8] - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, asset valuations are low, and there is room for repair. The policy environment is favorable, but the Iran situation has high uncertainty, so it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [9] Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw gold and silver main contracts decline by 0.24% and 1.62% respectively. The US February PPI data exceeded expectations [11] - The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term logic of precious metals is strong. However, due to the high market pricing and the uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [12] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day saw rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuate. The Middle - East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the long - term, the real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is decreasing. In the medium - term, it is necessary to focus on the peak season. The supply pressure has been alleviated, and prices may rebound but with limited space. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [14] Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw iron ore futures fluctuate. The Middle - East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. After the key meeting, the daily output of molten iron may increase, which is positive for prices. The inventory is at a high level in the past five years. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [16][17] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw coking coal and coke futures decline slightly. The Middle - East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, and the demand may increase. The prices of coke and coking coal are in a volatile pattern, and investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [19] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts decline by 1.51% and 2.19% respectively. The cost of ferroalloys is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the supply is still in a surplus state. After a rapid price rebound, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [21][22] Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil rise and then fall. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of oil and gas rigs in the US increased. The conflict between the US and Iran has intensified, and the global crude oil supply shortage is still a concern. Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities in the main crude - oil contract [23][24] Polyolefins - The previous trading day saw the PP market in Hangzhou decline, and the LLDPE market in Yuyao adjust. In the short - term, polyolefins show a contraction trend. In the long - term, the import volume may decrease in April, but new production capacity is planned to be put into operation at home and abroad, and the supply pressure will gradually increase. The demand shows the characteristics of "rising production but cautious purchasing". Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [26] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw the synthetic rubber main contract decline by 1.62%. The cost support has weakened. The supply pressure is high in the short - term, and the demand is affected by the Middle - East conflict. The inventory has changed from accumulation to depletion. The price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile pattern [28][29] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw the natural - rubber main contract decline by 2.55%, and the 20 - rubber main contract decline by 2.67%. The Middle - East conflict has increased the cost of synthetic rubber, which strengthens the substitution demand for natural rubber. However, the expectation of new - rubber supply and slow demand recovery suppress the price increase. The price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern [31] PVC - The previous trading day saw the PVC main contract decline by 1.31%. The market is driven by overseas geopolitical conflicts and domestic spring demand. The cost support is strong in the short - term, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile pattern [34] Urea - The previous trading day saw the urea main contract decline by 1.70%. The market is facing high supply and policy restrictions. The demand is weak, and the export is strictly controlled. The price is expected to be in a weak volatile pattern, with limited downward space [36] PX - The previous trading day saw the PX2605 main contract decline by 0.42%. The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed. The PX supply is expected to be tight, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. The price is expected to be in a slightly strong volatile pattern, and investors can consider cautious long - entry at low positions [37] PTA - The previous trading day saw the PTA2605 main contract decline by 0.76%. The PTA processing fee has been adjusted, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve in March. The price is mainly affected by the cost. Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, investors can consider cautious long - entry at low positions [38] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw the ethylene - glycol main contract rise by 1.11%, and the night - session rise by 8.73%. The supply is expected to decrease due to the Middle - East conflict, and the inventory is expected to be depleted. The price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile pattern [39] Short - Fiber - The previous trading day saw the short - fiber 2606 main contract decline by 0.39%. The supply is gradually increasing, and the terminal demand is recovering. The price is mainly affected by the cost. Investors should pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [40] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw the bottle - chips 2605 main contract decline by 2.35%. The processing fee has increased significantly, and the supply is expected to decrease. The demand is recovering, and the price is expected to follow the cost and be in a volatile pattern. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the restart of the maintenance device and cost changes [41] Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw the 2605 main contract close at 1211 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.57%. The production is stable, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand is weak. The market sentiment is weak, but the decline in the number of warehouse receipts may lead to market fluctuations. Investors should control risks [42][43] Glass - The previous trading day saw the 2605 main contract close at 1066 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.74%. The production line is shrinking, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand is recovering slowly. The market is in a state of high - level long - short game, and the price is volatile. Investors should control positions and pay attention to the Middle - East situation and fundamental changes [44] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw the 2605 main contract close at 2442 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.01%. The supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. The price of high - concentration caustic soda is rising due to export orders. The market may fluctuate due to the decline in the number of warehouse receipts. Investors should pay attention to overseas device dynamics, export orders, inventory changes, and device maintenance progress [45][46] Pulp - The previous trading day saw the 2605 main contract close at 5040 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.10%. The domestic production may decrease, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the market lacks substantial positive support [47][48] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw the lithium - carbonate main contract decline by 4.43%. The global lithium - resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and the supply is expected to be tight. The demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price has strong support, but the short - term volatility may increase [49] Copper - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai copper main contract close at 96340 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.58%. The geopolitical conflict has increased inflation expectations, and the supply pressure is high in the short - term. The downstream demand has recovered to some extent, but the high inventory and macro - pressure may lead to a weak volatile pattern [50][51] Aluminum - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai aluminum main contract close at 24835 yuan/ton, unchanged; the alumina main contract rose by 0.85%. The supply pressure of alumina is high, and the Middle - East conflict has increased the cost. The supply is expected to tighten, and the domestic consumption is recovering. The price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile pattern [53] Zinc - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc main contract close at 23000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.84%. The domestic supply has increased, and the overseas supply is disturbed. The demand is expected to recover, but the actual recovery strength needs to be verified. The inventory is increasing, and the price may be under pressure and in a volatile pattern [55] Lead - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai lead main contract close at 16585 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.57%. The production of primary lead has increased, and the recovery of secondary lead is slow. The demand for lead - acid batteries has recovered, but the geopolitical risk affects exports. The inventory is increasing, and the price may be under pressure and adjust [57] Tin - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai tin main contract decline by 3.39%. The geopolitical conflict has increased price volatility. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand in emerging fields is strong. The inventory has decreased, and the price has support, but investors should control risks due to overseas uncertainties [59][60] Nickel - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai nickel main contract decline by 0.69%. The geopolitical conflict has increased price volatility. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be tight, and the cost is rising. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The market is in a surplus state, and investors should pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events [61] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw the soybean - meal main contract decline by 0.26%, and the soybean - oil main contract decline by 0.93%. The Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching 60%, and the crude - oil price rise provides support. The domestic soybean import is slowing down, and the supply may be tight in the short - term, but it is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East conflict [62][63] Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm - oil market has declined for two consecutive days. The export demand in April is a concern. The domestic palm - oil import has increased, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. Investors can consider reducing or closing long positions [64][65] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures have declined. The domestic import policy has changed, and the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal has decreased, while the inventory of rapeseed oil has increased. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines [66][67] Cotton - The previous trading day saw domestic cotton futures decline slightly, and the overseas market fluctuated. The global cotton production is expected to decrease in the new season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long - term, and the price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile pattern [69][70] Sugar - The previous trading day saw domestic sugar futures decline slightly, and the overseas market rose. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the import volume is high. The overseas sugar production is lower than expected, and the crude - oil price rise is beneficial to the sugar price. The long - term sugar price bottom may rise [71][72] Apple - The previous trading day saw apple futures fluctuate strongly. The spot market is stable, and it is in the consumption off - season. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The market is expected to be stable and strong, and investors should pay attention to inventory reduction and weather conditions [73] Live Pigs - The previous trading day saw the main contract decline by 2.29%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The government has started the purchase and storage mechanism, but the short - term effect may be limited. It is advisable to hold short positions [74][75] Eggs - The previous trading day saw the main contract rise by 0.29%. The egg supply is expected to be at a high level in March, and the long - term supply improvement is uncertain. It is advisable to hold short positions in the far - month contracts [76] Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day saw the corn main contract rise by 0.08%, and the corn - starch main contract decline by 0.51%. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced. The new - season corn cost may be revised down, and the wheat substitution effect may increase. The corn - starch demand has recovered slightly, and the price may follow the corn market. Investors can pay attention to put - option opportunities [77][79] Logs - The previous trading day saw the 2605 main contract close at 806.0 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.68%. The supply of New Zealand logs has increased, and the downstream demand has improved. The cost pressure has increased, and the market is in a high - level volatile pattern. Investors should pay attention to external quotes, shipping dynamics, and downstream consumption [80][82]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the threat from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to attack multiple energy facilities in the Middle East led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices and inflation pressure; the US PPI data exceeded expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting had a hawkish tone, causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to rise and global risk appetite to cool significantly. Domestically, China's economy rebounded better than expected from January to February, with exports far exceeding expectations and inflation continuing to recover. The government's work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. In the short term, the stock index will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to changes in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the implementation of the Two Sessions policies, and market sentiment [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index and government bonds will fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude; among commodity sectors, black metals will have a short - term oscillating rebound, non - ferrous metals will oscillate in the short term, energy and chemical products will be oscillating and strong in the short term, and precious metals will oscillate in the short term, all requiring a cautious approach [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, the threat to energy facilities and the hawkish Fed led to a rise in inflation and a decline in risk appetite. Domestically, the economy and inflation were better than expected, but policy targets and intensity were lower than in 2025. The stock index will oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and policy changes. Assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities will have different short - term trends [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors like communication services, AI, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The economy and inflation were better than expected from January to February, but due to geopolitical shocks and the hawkish Fed, the stock index will oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - On Wednesday night, the precious metals market fell sharply. Due to the threat to energy facilities, rising inflation expectations, and the hawkish Fed, the US dollar index strengthened, and precious metal prices weakened. They will oscillate in the short term, and a cautious wait - and - see attitude is recommended [4]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot market rebounded slightly, and the futures price rose and then fell. The decline in crude oil prices led to a slowdown in the rise of steel prices. Demand was weak but improving, and supply would remain high. It is recommended to treat it with an oscillating mindset and beware of the risk of a fall after a rise [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices fell slightly. The daily average pig iron output decreased, but there was an expectation of resumption of production after the Two Sessions. The global iron ore arrival volume decreased, and the shipping volume increased. The short - term upward space of iron ore prices may be limited, and attention should be paid to the risk of a fall after a rise [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices rebounded slightly, and the futures prices fell. The manganese ore spot was firm. The supply of silicon manganese had a slight change in production capacity utilization, and the downstream demand was recovering. The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [7]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Since 2026, copper prices have been oscillating at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mine end, but the probability of extreme shortage is low. Refined copper production has a high growth rate, and downstream demand is suppressed, with inventories accumulating [8]. - **Aluminum**: The non - ferrous sector was weak. Domestic aluminum supply was high, and inventories were accumulating. Overseas supply was tight due to the Middle East situation, resulting in a large price difference between domestic and overseas [8]. - **Zinc**: The zinc ore processing fee in some regions rebounded, and the import ore TC decreased. Domestic smelting production was at a relatively high level, and overseas production will recover in 2026. Demand was not optimistic, and inventories were accumulating [9]. - **Lead**: The production of primary and secondary lead increased seasonally, and demand entered the off - season. LME and domestic lead inventories were at high levels [10]. - **Nickel**: The cost supported the MHP price, and the RKAB quota in Indonesia decreased. Nickel prices had strong support below but limited upward momentum. Inventories at home and abroad were at high levels [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin increased as the resumption of production in Myanmar accelerated and smelting enterprises resumed work. Demand was differentiated, and inventories increased [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate fell. The price of lithium ore decreased, and the social inventory was de - stocked. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is not advisable to chase the rise [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price of industrial silicon fell. It was priced close to the cost, and attention should be paid to the cost support [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price of polysilicon fell. The inventory was at a high level, and the price was expected to be weakly oscillating [14]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Iranian oil and gas facilities were attacked, causing the oil price to rise significantly. The short - term oil price will remain strong and volatile [15]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price followed the rise in oil price. The inventory was low, and the supply was low. The short - term absolute price will fluctuate with the oil price [15]. - **PX**: The PX price was high due to the shortage of naphtha. Although there were some factors suppressing the upward trend, the oil price was the main logic [16]. - **PTA**: The PTA price followed the rise in PX, and the inventory pressure decreased. However, the profit of the middle and lower reaches was suppressed, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol rose, but the inventory was high. If exports are used for de - stocking, the price may rise [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price followed the energy and chemical sector to be strongly oscillating. The downstream profit was suppressed, and the inventory increased [17]. - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market was strong, and the port market had a weakening basis. The supply was worried due to the conflict, and the inventory decreased. The overall pattern was strong [18]. - **PP**: The PP price was sorted out in a small range. The supply decreased, and the price was supported. Attention should be paid to the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE was adjusted. The downstream demand was increasing, but the profit was compressed. The supply was tight, and the price was firm [19]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market was weakly adjusted. The daily output was high, and the price was expected to return to an oscillating range [19][20]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight soybean price rose. The rise in oil price and the expected biofuel policy supported the price. Attention should be paid to the estimated planting area at the end of the month [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The import of soybeans decreased seasonally, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased, supporting the soybean meal basis. The supply of rapeseed was expected to be loose, suppressing the market sentiment [21]. - **Oils and Fats**: The international oil price and biofuel policy supported the performance of oils and fats. The palm oil price was supported by increased exports and decreased production. The soybean oil basis was stable, and the rapeseed oil basis was slightly down [22]. - **Corn**: The corn price oscillated, and the bullish sentiment slowed down. The increase in imported barley and the release of grain sources limited the upward risk preference [22]. - **Pigs**: The pig industry was in a period of capacity adjustment. The demand was improving marginally but still in the off - season. The price had a sign of stopping falling, and the futures price was expected to oscillate weakly in a range [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoint - The report maintains a bearish outlook on natural rubber, considering that although the Middle - East situation has triggered bullish sentiment, natural rubber has entered a bearish season [4] Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral with strong spot prices, inventory accumulation in Qingdao, and high tire operating rates. The basis is bearish with a spot price of 16,250 and a basis of - 150. The inventory situation is neutral, with the SHFE inventory increasing week - on - week and decreasing year - on - year, and the Qingdao inventory increasing both week - on - week and year - on - year. The market trend is neutral with the 20 - day line upward but the price running below it. The main positions are net long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish. The overall view is bearish [4] Fundamental Data Spot Price - The spot price of 2024 full - latex (not for delivery) decreased on March 18 [8] - The US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also mentioned [11] Inventory - The exchange inventory has changed little recently [14] - The Qingdao area inventory is accumulating [17] Import - The import volume has declined [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have declined [23][26] - Tire production has increased year - on - year [29] - The tire industry's exports have rebounded [32] Basis - The basis weakened on March 18 [35] Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points Bullish Factors - High downstream consumption [6] - Resilient spot prices [6] - Domestic anti - involution [6] - Rising synthetic rubber prices [6] Bearish Factors - Bearish domestic economic indicators [6] - Trade frictions [6] - Higher crude oil prices leading to reduced consumption [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP主力合约盘面 are expected to continue strengthening. Due to the Iran situation disturbing oil prices, the external crude oil is strong, the inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that the PE and PP will show a strong trend today [4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East, especially the Iran situation, remains unresolved, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz basically interrupted. Many countries have confirmed the release of strategic reserves, and the external crude oil is continuously strong. On the supply - demand side, the spring plowing demand for agricultural films has started, but high - price raw materials have led to many downstream enterprises waiting and watching, with few transactions. Packaging films are mainly for rigid demand, with limited improvement. The operating rate of pipes remains low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8300 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 131, and the premium - discount ratio is - 1.6%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.3 tons (down 0.2 tons), which is neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main positions**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Likely factors**: Cost support and significant crude oil fluctuations are bullish factors, while geopolitics is the main bearish logic [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East, especially the Iran situation, remains unresolved, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz basically interrupted. Many countries have confirmed the release of strategic reserves, and the external crude oil is continuously strong. On the supply - demand side, multiple PDH units have stopped for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic weaving has increased, but enterprises are cautious in production due to poor profit margins. The operating rate of bopp has decreased abnormally, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - price raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 8650 (down 50), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 22, and the premium - discount ratio is 0.3%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.6 tons (down 6.1 tons), which is neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main positions**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - **Likely factors**: Cost support and significant crude oil fluctuations are bullish factors, while geopolitics and international policy games are the main bearish factors [8] Spot and Futures Market Information - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 8300 (unchanged), the price of the 05 contract is 8431 (down 65), the basis is - 131 (up 65), the warehouse receipt is 7851 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 62.3 tons (down 0.2 tons), and the PE social inventory is 61.9 tons (down 4.4 tons) [9] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 8650 (down 50), the price of the 05 contract is 8628 (down 43), the basis is 22 (down 7), the warehouse receipt is 17610 (down 60), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 59.6 tons (down 6.1 tons), and the PP social inventory is 30.7 tons (down 1.7 tons) [9] Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a significant increase in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also shown certain fluctuations. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a 11.0% increase in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also changed over time, and the import dependence has generally decreased [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the escalation of the Middle - East situation and the hawkish stance of the Fed Chair, the US dollar strengthened, leading to significant drops in gold and silver prices. The US and European stock markets closed lower, and US Treasury yields rose across the board. The 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 6.65 basis points to 4.267%, and the US dollar index rose 0.74% to 100.30. COMEX gold futures fell 3.68% to $4823.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 5.63% to $75.42 per ounce. Inflation concerns are high, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts continues to cool, increasing the downward pressure on gold and silver prices [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 - Gold: The price dropped significantly due to the Middle - East situation and the Fed Chair's hawkish stance. The US stock and European stock markets closed lower, US Treasury yields rose, the US dollar strengthened, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 3.68%. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory increased, the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main net long position decreased [4] - Silver: Similar to gold, the price dropped significantly. COMEX silver futures fell 5.63%. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory decreased, the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main position changed from net short to net long [5] 3.2每日提示 - Today, focus on the interest - rate decisions of the Japanese, European, and British central banks, US new home sales in January, the first - time jobless claims last week, and the UK unemployment rate [4][5] 3.3今日关注 - 07:50 Japan's core machinery orders in January; 08:30 Australia's employment report in February; time TBD 2026 Huawei China Partners Conference; time TBD Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision; 14:30 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference on monetary policy; 15:00 UK's three - month ILO employment change and unemployment rate in January; 16:30 Swiss National Bank's interest - rate decision; 16:30 Sveriges Riksbank's interest - rate decision and SNB President Thomas Jordan's press conference; 20:00 Bank of England's interest - rate decision; 20:30 US first - time jobless claims for the week ending March 14; 21:15 European Central Bank's interest - rate decision; 21:45 ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference on monetary policy; 22:00 US new home sales in January; 23:15 Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's visit to the US and meeting with US President Donald Trump, and they will have dinner together at 07:15 (Beijing time on Friday); next day 00:00 US household net worth in Q4; next day 05:45 New Zealand's imports, exports, and trade balance in February [12] 3.4基本面数据 - Gold: The basis is - 1.52, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures (neutral); the inventory of gold futures is 106,845 kg, an increase of 1,530 kg (bearish) [4] - Silver: The basis is - 32, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures (neutral); the inventory of Shanghai silver futures is 346,920 kg, a decrease of 6,843 kg (bullish) [5] 3.5持仓数据 - Gold: The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased [4] - Silver: The main net position is long, and the main position changed from net short to net long [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - **沪镍**: The outer market continues to decline slightly, showing a weak and volatile trend. In terms of supply, the production schedule in March is increasing, and domestic inventory is piling up, indicating sufficient market supply. On the industrial chain, the sentiment of bullish on nickel ore is strong, the RKAB policy in Indonesia continues to ferment, and there is a sharp contrast between the strong demand in Indonesia and the sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. The price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the cost line is firm. The inventory of stainless steel continues to decline slightly, and the demand is weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles meet expectations, but the month - on - month decline is large in the off - season. The conclusion is that Shanghai Nickel 2605 will run weakly in a volatile manner [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of spot stainless steel has decreased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, the demand in Indonesia is strong, the price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the cost line has strong support. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the demand is weak. The conclusion is that Stainless Steel 2605 will run in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On March 18, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 135,200, down 740 from March 17; the price of LME Nickel was 17,160, down 95; the price of stainless steel's main contract was 14,020, down 75. The nickel index was 134,050, down 1,200, and the cold - rolled index was 13,563, down 68 [9]. - **Spot Prices**: On March 18, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 138,000, down 1,950; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 141,350, down 2,000; the price of 1 imported nickel was 134,700, down 2,050; the price of nickel beans was 137,250, down 2,000. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged, while the price in Foshan was 14,900, down 100 [9]. 2. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **LME and SHFE Inventory**: As of March 18, LME nickel inventory was 283,950, an increase of 210 from the previous day; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 57,194, a decrease of 53. The total inventory was 341,144, an increase of 157 [12]. - **Previous Inventory Data**: As of March 13, the SHFE nickel inventory was 63,681 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,462 tons, an increase of 1,912 tons and 2,894 tons respectively [11]. 3. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Futures Inventory**: On March 18, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 53,481, a decrease of 421 from March 17 [17]. - **Regional Inventory**: On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1,142,500 tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons month - on - month. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 707,100 tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons month - on - month [16]. 4. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - **Nickel Ore Prices**: On March 18, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 80 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni0.9% was 34.5 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 15 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.5; the sea freight from the Philippines to Tianjin Port was 17 US dollars per ton, an increase of 1.5 [20]. - **Nickel Iron Prices**: The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 1,093.48 yuan per nickel point, a decrease of 0.75; the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3,675 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [20]. 5. Stainless Steel Production Cost - **Cost Types**: The traditional production cost was 14,186, the production cost using scrap steel was 14,081, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 17,882 [22]. 6. Nickel Import Cost - The calculated import price was 133,893 yuan per ton [25].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: March 19, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and operating rates year-on-year, expected to remain at high levels. Industrial demand is recovering, but agricultural demand has entered a lull. The inventory has accumulated, and the external price is rising due to geopolitical factors, widening the export price gap [4]. - The UR2605 contract basis is 5, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, indicating neutrality [4]. - The UR comprehensive inventory is 114.7 million tons (-14.2), indicating a bearish trend [4]. - The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with high daily production year-on-year, differentiated industrial demand, and a peak in agricultural demand. The inventory is accumulating, and the UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Urea Overview 利多 - Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season [5] - Overseas prices continue to strengthen [5] 利空 - Daily production is at a historical high [5] Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Main Risk Point - Changes in export policies [5] Group 5: Market Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | - Spot delivery price: 1860 (0)<br>- Shandong spot price: 1880 (-10)<br>- Henan spot price: 1860 (0)<br>- FOB China: 4433 | | Futures Market | - 05 contract price: 1855 (-23)<br>- UR01 price: 1866 (-22)<br>- UR05 price: 1855 (-23)<br>- UR09 price: 1894 (-25)<br>- Basis: 5 (23) | | Inventory | - Warehouse receipts: 8499 (444)<br>- UR comprehensive inventory: 114.7 million tons (0)<br>- UR factory inventory: 95.8 million tons (0)<br>- UR port inventory: 18.9 million tons (0) | [6] Group 6: Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependency | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]