证券研究报告 | 2025年04月15日 轻工制造行业周报（25 年第 15 周） 优于大市 美国对等关税对轻工行业的影响梳理 本周研究跟踪与投资思考：近期美国"对等关税"政策反复，外销链出现大 幅回调。当前政策仍有博弈空间，考虑到轻工业海外其他地区的产能承接与 替代性较低、美国制造业回流难度较大与关税压力存在转移手段，具备美国 本土产能或品类加价倍率高的代工企业预计短期更安全。 美国"对等关税"政策反复扰动出口市场。4 月 3 日，美国宣布对所有进口 商品普遍性加征 10%"最低基准关税"，同时对与其贸易逆差较大的经济体 征收额外对等关税，其中柬埔寨 49%、越南 46%、泰国 36%、中国 34%、印尼 32%、印度 26%、韩国 25%、日本 24%、欧盟 20%，符合美墨加贸易协定的商 品免征关税。4 月 9 日，美国进一步宣布继续对我国产品加税至 125%，同时 对不采取报复行动的国家实施 90 天关税暂缓。本次美国对全球征税范围广、 幅度大，超出市场预期，高税额地区主要为我国与我国转口贸易地东南亚， 目前政策尚有博弈空间，若政策落地无论是国内直接出口或是转口贸易预计 均将受到较大冲击。 轻工外销公 ...

文 | 《BUG》栏目 罗宁 近日，红星美凯龙集团发布公开信称，"五一"全民消费在即，红星美凯龙拟全国投入超1个亿用于消费 补贴。公开信表示"我们相信，消费即力量，信心是长城。" 不过，就在这一公开信发布前不久，一起关于红星美凯龙集团原执行总裁高某涉嫌职务侵占罪的二审判 决书正式公开，受到行业高度关注。根据判决书，高某作为项目的主要负责人之一，利用负责外资引入 任务的职务便利，在与交易对方签订合同过程中，将原本10%的服务费增加到13%，套取公司资金501 万元，与谢某七三瓜分，此事暴露出红星美凯龙在企业治理，尤其高管管理方面存在的问题。 而更深层次的危机体现在财报数据中，根据红星美凯龙2024年财报，其营收和利润双双下降。不仅如 此，曾经头顶"中国最大家居卖场"光环的红星美凯龙，如今一方面面临用户信任危机，商户产品质量 差、卷款跑路等投诉屡见不鲜；另一方面，其二股东红星控股因自身债务清偿困境申请破产重组，红星 美凯龙股价也不断受挫，较一年来最高点已经跌去三成。 业内人士指出，随着房地产市场下行，家居行业仍需熬过"苦日子"。 高管职务侵占细节公开 根据裁判文书网对于《谢某，高某职务侵占罪二审刑事裁定书》的公示 ...

A股市场的回购潮仍在继续。4月14日，又有多家上市公司积极行动，或以回购增持等方式"硬核护 盘"，或积极通过各种举措提升对抗风险的能力，携手投资者共筑市场"信心墙"。 根据Wind统计，上周（4月6日至4月12日）共有134家A股上市公司实施回购，回购总金额达49.73亿 元。而2024年同期有72家A股上市公司实施回购，总金额为9.55亿元。 4月14日晚，又有上市公司公布上限为10亿元的大额回购。工业富联发布公告，拟使用不低于5亿元 （含）且不超过10亿元（含）的自有资金，以集中竞价交易方式回购股份，回购价格不超过20元每股， 回购的股份将用于注销以减少注册资本。 国电南瑞也在14日晚公告，公司拟使用自有资金以集中竞价交易方式回购股份，用于公司未来实施股权 激励计划。回购股份金额不低于5亿元（含）、不超过10亿元（含）。回购股份价格不超过34.13元每股 （含）。 这些企业的回购，也是基于自身优异的业绩表现。此前，工业富联发布2025年第一季度业绩快报，预计 营业收入1590亿元—1610亿元，同比增长34%—35.6%；归母净利润52亿元—53亿元，同比增长24.4%— 26.8%，均实现高双位数增长， ...

海关总署公布的数据显示，今年一季度国内家用电器出口额241.65亿美元，同比增长8.7%，以人民币 计，出口额同比增长9.9%；家具及其零件出口额159.34亿美元，同比下降8%，以人民币计同比下降 7%；陶瓷产品47.66亿美元，同比下降19.3%，以人民币计下降18.5%。 相较于农产品、工业制造类产品，家具、陶瓷类产品的出口量近年持续下降，但家用电器的制造优势仍 在呈现，在今年一季度仍保持增长态势。 由于早在数年前就曾遭遇一轮关税加增，因此家居行业近年来在关税压力下，已经经历过一番调整。一 方面整体出口额难以避免的出现下降，部分产能被淘汰，另一方面家居行业也更早地在压力下寻求转型 出路。 根据海关总署今年1、2月份的数据显示，虽然从年初开始，主要家居品类对美国、墨西哥市场的出口额 就有所下降，但对德国市场的出口额同比就出现超过10%的增幅。 具体到细分领域，在今年1-2月，弹簧床垫的对美出口额仍有接近370%的增速；办公金属家居对英国市 场出口额同比增长超过60%；竹制家具至法国市场出口额同比增长43.68%。 不难看出，在对美市场出口额出现下降的同时，国内家具企业也在寻求向欧洲等其他更多市场的开拓和 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant shift in U.S. tariff policy, with tariffs on Chinese goods raised to 145%, while tariffs on other countries are postponed for 90 days at a 10% rate. This creates a favorable environment for leading companies with global production capabilities and efficient management to capture market share [2] - The report anticipates strong performance in H1 financial reports for leading companies due to preemptive orders driven by tariff disruptions, with specific companies like Craft Home, Yongyi Co., and others being closely monitored for their overseas expansion and low valuations [2] Summary by Sections Light Industry Manufacturing - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on the light industry manufacturing sector, emphasizing the advantages of companies with global production and local supply chains [2] Paper Industry - The paper market is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with cultural paper prices stable and packaging paper prices showing signs of recovery. Companies like Sun Paper and Wuzhou Special Paper are highlighted for their stable profitability and capacity expansion [3] New Tobacco - The report notes that Smoore's Q1 performance is stable, with revenue growth expected despite increased costs. The company is well-positioned to gain market share due to its compliance and overseas production capabilities [4] Home Furnishing - The real estate sector is expected to improve, with leading home furnishing companies like Mousse and Gujia showing better order growth than the industry average. The report suggests that the home furnishing sector is well-positioned for growth due to supportive policies [4] Consumer Goods - The toy industry is experiencing high demand, with significant participation in trade shows and a focus on innovative products. Companies like Pop Mart are expected to perform well with new product launches [5][6] Packaging - Companies like Yongxin Co. and Yutong Technology are noted for their stable operations, with expectations of price stabilization in the metal packaging sector as demand recovers [7] Electrical Lighting - The report highlights the importance of product innovation and channel expansion for companies like Bull Group, which is expected to accelerate its market presence [8] Two-Wheeled Vehicles - Ninebot's market share is increasing, with strong sales figures reported. The report suggests continued growth in the electric bicycle sector driven by government subsidies [9][10] Gold and Jewelry - Rising gold prices are expected to boost sales of premium gold jewelry, with companies like Chaohongji showing positive sales trends [10] Cross-Border E-commerce - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas supply chain layouts for companies like Anker Innovations, which are expected to benefit from tariff advantages [11] Maternal and Child Products - The report notes significant profit growth for Kid King, driven by improved store performance and a focus on live-streaming e-commerce [12] E-commerce - The report discusses the restructuring of rural commercial ecosystems through AI and supply chain integration, with companies like Huitongda leading the way [13] Beauty Products - The report highlights the growth of top beauty brands on platforms like Douyin, with a focus on innovative marketing strategies [14] IP Retail - The report notes improvements in same-store sales for Miniso, driven by supply chain diversification and IP collaborations [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued companies with strong fundamentals, particularly those driven by domestic demand, such as Sun Paper, Xianhe Co., Sophia, and others [2] - Recent buyback announcements from companies like Yutong Technology and Simoer International reflect confidence in their growth prospects, suggesting opportunities for investment in oversold stocks [2] - The report highlights the potential for Chinese companies to gain greater influence in the IP licensing space, particularly in the IP toy industry, as they scale up and improve their product offerings [2] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Performance - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 5.84% compared to a 2.87% drop in the CSI 300 index [16] - Sub-sectors such as home goods, paper, and entertainment products also showed significant declines [16] Home Furnishing - The report notes a narrowing decline in residential sales and construction, with a 1-2 month drop of 17.8% in residential completion and a 3.4% decrease in sales [35] - Companies like Oppein Home and others are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of improving industry dynamics [5] Paper and Packaging - Paper prices have shown mixed trends, with double glue paper at 5387.5 CNY/ton, down 37.5 CNY/ton, while corrugated paper prices increased slightly [5] - The report indicates a 1.9% year-on-year decline in revenue for the paper industry in the first two months of the year [70] Consumer Goods - The report suggests a focus on cultural and creative product leaders like Morning Glory, which are expected to benefit from a recovering domestic consumption environment [5] - Companies in the personal care sector are also recommended for their channel expansion and price increases [7] Export Chain - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports, noting that some countries have received a 90-day delay on tariffs, which benefits companies with established overseas production [7] - Companies like Zhejiang Natural and others are highlighted as potential investment opportunities in the export chain [7] New Tobacco Products - The report mentions Simoer International's stock buyback as a sign of confidence amid regulatory changes in the e-cigarette market [7] - The focus on compliance and harm reduction in the tobacco industry is emphasized as a growing trend [7] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector also underperformed, with a 5.72% decline in the index [25] - Companies like Hailan Home and others are recommended as potential investments due to their brand strength [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In Line with the Market" for the light industry manufacturing sector [6]. Core Insights - The light industry manufacturing sector experienced a decline of 1.34% in March 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.27 percentage points, ranking 21st among 30 sectors [12][14]. - The sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio as of March 31, 2025, is 30.70, which is at the 40th percentile historically, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade [20][21]. - The report highlights the impact of various factors on the paper and home furnishing segments, including fluctuating raw material prices and the influence of government policies on market demand [6][68]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The light industry manufacturing index underperformed the broader market in March 2025, with a trading volume of 366.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.63% decrease month-on-month [12][13]. - Sub-sectors showed mixed performance, with "Other Home Furnishings" and "Metal Packaging" gaining 2.39% and 1.79% respectively, while "Furniture" and "Other Light Industry" fell by 4.25% and 7.46% respectively [14][17]. - Nearly half of the stocks in the sector saw gains, with 70 out of 171 stocks rising, while the median decline was -1.74% [17][18]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking 2.1. Paper Industry - The paper and paper products industry reported a cumulative revenue of 209.05 billion yuan in January-February 2025, down 1.9% year-on-year, with total profits declining by 17.7% [24]. - The average price of waste yellow board paper was 1,415 yuan/ton as of March 31, 2025, reflecting a 0.86% increase from the previous month [29]. - The production of corrugated paper and boxboard continued to face downward price pressure, with average prices dropping by 3.51% and 6.54% respectively [35][36]. 2.2. Home Furnishing - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization, with cumulative sales area for new residential buildings declining by only 3.4% year-on-year in January-February 2025, a significant improvement from previous months [74]. - The furniture manufacturing sector faced challenges, with cumulative revenue of 91.22 billion yuan in January-February 2025, down 2.7% year-on-year, and profits down by 29.7% [83]. - The furniture retail sector saw a growth in sales, with a 15.63% increase in sales for building materials and home furnishings in February 2025 [88][89].

Core Insights - The core barrier for consumer goods and retail across cycles is the development of channels and brands, with a focus on how companies leverage these elements to create sustainable growth. Group 1: Channel Development - Super channels incubate super brands, with successful brands like Coca-Cola and Nestlé relying heavily on channel strength [2][10] - Companies like Lusi Co., which initially focused on international markets, have shifted to domestic markets by building strong channel networks rather than solely relying on social media platforms [5][8] - Lusi Co. has established a comprehensive channel presence, including major retail systems and online platforms, to support its brand growth [6][7][8] Group 2: Product Focus - The concept of "super products" is crucial, as seen in brands like Mixue Ice City and Luckin Coffee, which focus on strategic single products to drive brand recognition [11][12] - The case of "Boss Loves Fish" illustrates how focusing on a single product can lead to brand success, emphasizing the importance of product quality and differentiation [17][12] Group 3: Brand Power - The essence of consumer goods barriers lies in brand strength rather than just channel or product power, as highlighted by historical examples from Coca-Cola [40][41] - The evolution of brand competition has transitioned from product competition to marketing competition, emphasizing the importance of storytelling and content in brand development [43][50] Group 4: Content Strategy - Effective content strategy is essential for brand growth, with a focus on creating engaging narratives that resonate with consumers [51][62] - Brands must adapt their content to different platforms, understanding that each medium has unique characteristics and audience expectations [106][100] - Successful brands like Banmu Huatian have leveraged targeted content strategies across platforms to achieve significant sales growth [108][110] Group 5: Market Trends - The rise of new media platforms has transformed consumer engagement, with brands needing to adapt their strategies to remain relevant in a rapidly changing market [106][125] - The case of Zibo barbecue demonstrates how viral marketing can create significant brand awareness and consumer interest [70][72] Group 6: Case Studies - The example of "Ren Yang Yi Tou Niu" illustrates how storytelling and community engagement can enhance brand value and consumer loyalty [168][171] - The strategic use of KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) in marketing campaigns can effectively drive brand recognition and sales [120][119]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [17]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the home furnishing sector is primarily driven by domestic demand, with improving fundamentals and low valuations. The report suggests that the industry is at a turning point, with many companies currently valued at historical lows, presenting a buying opportunity [2]. - In the consumer discretionary sector, companies with low exposure to foreign markets are expected to benefit from industry recovery and consumption promotion policies. Specific companies are highlighted for their growth potential [3]. - The paper industry is anticipated to see cost increases due to tariffs on imported wood pulp, which may benefit domestic high-end corrugated paper manufacturers. The report suggests that domestic companies can adjust their supply chains to mitigate cost impacts [4]. - The metal packaging sector is primarily focused on domestic demand, with companies actively exploring Southeast Asian markets. The report predicts that as domestic demand recovers, the industry's profitability is likely to improve [4]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - Domestic sales are the main focus, with companies like 欧派家居 (13x PE), 索菲亚 (11x), and 志邦家居 (9x) highlighted for their low valuations and potential for growth. The report notes that the domestic market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the second-hand housing sector [2]. Consumer Discretionary - Companies such as 晨光股份 (16x), 登康口腔 (31x), and 稳健医疗 (22x) are recommended due to their low foreign sales exposure and strong growth prospects driven by domestic consumption and strategic initiatives [3]. Paper Industry - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on imported wood pulp, suggesting that domestic high-end corrugated paper manufacturers like 山鹰国际 (16x) and 太阳纸业 (11x) may benefit from a potential demand gap created by these tariffs [4]. Metal Packaging - The report highlights that companies like 奥瑞金 (12x) and 昇兴股份 (10x) are primarily focused on domestic sales, with limited foreign exposure. The expectation is that as domestic demand improves, the industry's profitability will also recover [4].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors, particularly recommending companies in the home furnishing, new tobacco, light consumer goods, and paper packaging industries [5][23][24][26]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to stabilize with the introduction of consumer subsidies, leading to improved order intake for many companies [5][19]. - New tobacco products, particularly from Smoore International, are anticipated to benefit from market expansion despite tariff challenges [23]. - The paper packaging industry is facing high pulp inventory levels, which may slow down profit recovery, but consolidation efforts are expected to improve competition [24]. - The light consumer goods sector, especially in pet products, is likely to see accelerated domestic brand growth due to increased tariffs on imports [26]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic sales are improving as consumer subsidies are rolled out, with expectations for further stimulus policies [5][19]. - Companies like Gujia Home and Sophia are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential [5][19]. - Export challenges due to increased tariffs are noted, but companies with strong domestic sales channels are expected to perform well [5][19]. New Tobacco - Smoore International is positioned to adapt to tariff impacts due to its production capabilities in Indonesia [23]. - The electronic cigarette market is expected to maintain consumer demand despite potential price increases from tariffs [23]. - The overall market for compliant brands is projected to expand, providing growth opportunities [23]. Paper Packaging - High pulp inventory levels are suppressing price increases, with a slow recovery in profitability expected [24][25]. - The acquisition of Zhongliang Packaging by Aorijin is expected to enhance competitive dynamics in the industry [24]. - The introduction of new consumer electronics subsidies is anticipated to benefit leading packaging companies [24]. Light Consumer Goods - The pet food market is expected to see a shift towards domestic brands as tariffs on imports increase [26]. - Companies like Guibao Pet are positioned to capture market share due to their competitive pricing and product quality [26]. - The AI glasses segment is highlighted for its growth potential, with recommendations to focus on key supply chain players [26].