2025 年 10 月 09 日 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3927 | -4（-0.10%） | na na | | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2928 | -9 （-0.31%） | na na | | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1029.75 | +8.75（+0.86%） | 注：连盘指9月30日收盘， 夜盘休市； | 美盘 | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 278.1 | +1.4（+0.51%） | 收盘指10月8日收盘价。 | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） （节前9月30日报价） | | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2940～2980； M2601+40/+50/+80， | 10月基差M2601+0/+50， 持平； 持平； 12-1月M2601+50， 持平； 5-7月M2605+10， | 持平； 11-1月 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Views - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks in summer, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The overall growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is good, but the sugar production in some beet - producing areas in China is affected. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3]. - In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was at high risk of heat damage. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the cotton price has bottom - support. The import of cotton is lower than expected, and the demand for cotton is expected to recover seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with potential for price increase. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3]. Summaries based on Related Content Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,780 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,810 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,950 yuan [1]. Market Trends - U.S. sugar closed at 16.32, with a change of - 1.92%. U.S. cotton closed at 64.94, with a change of 0.78% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the summer demand for cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets [1]. - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increased the risk of heat damage to cotton. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, providing bottom - support for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8,968, with a change of 0.00%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 3,081, with a change of 0.00% [2][4]. Data Quick View - **External Market Quotes**: U.S. sugar decreased from 16.64 to 16.32, a change of - 1.92%. U.S. cotton increased from 64.44 to 64.94, a change of 0.78% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged. The cotton index 328 decreased slightly by 0.01%, and Xinjiang cotton spot price remained unchanged [4]. - **Price Difference Quick View**: Most price differences and basis points remained unchanged, with only a slight increase in cotton basis points [4]. - **Import Prices**: The cotton cotlookA price remained unchanged [4]. - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged [4]. - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5500, SR601P5500, CF601C13200, and CF601P13200 are 0.1034, 0.0929, 0.1347, and 0.1294 respectively [4]. Conclusions - Sugar: The overall growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is good, but the sugar production in some beet - producing areas in China is affected. Brazil's sugar production progress has accelerated, and the market expects production to exceed consumption. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating [3]. - Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is reduced. The overall growth of new - season cotton is better than last year, and the demand for cotton is expected to recover seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with potential for price increase [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Mainly wait and see [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the need for more risk management options in the global soybean trade, particularly in light of changing market dynamics and the shift from U.S. to Brazilian soybean exports [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures prices have traditionally been the core pricing benchmark for global soybean trade, especially in Brazil [1] - Brazil's soybean exports to China accounted for 74.6% of its total soybean exports in the first half of the year, amounting to $19 billion [3] - The correlation between South American soybean offshore prices and CBOT futures prices has significantly decreased since 2018, indicating a growing price divergence [3] Group 2: Challenges Faced by Brazilian Farmers - Brazilian farmers are facing increased costs due to drought conditions and high labor costs, which have kept local soybean purchase prices elevated [2] - Political changes, particularly U.S. presidential policies, have introduced significant market price volatility, prompting Brazilian farmers to use derivatives for hedging [2] Group 3: Interest in Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) - The DCE's Yellow Soybean No. 2 futures contract has garnered attention from Brazilian representatives as it closely matches the quality of soybeans exported to China and allows for foreign participation [3] - The DCE's pricing in Renminbi reflects the procurement costs of Chinese crushing enterprises, making it a potentially more relevant pricing tool for Brazilian exporters [3] - Brazilian industry representatives are beginning to consider the DCE's products for pricing reference and potential arbitrage opportunities between U.S. and Chinese markets [3]

Group 1: Commodity Price Movements - Chicago futures market saw a broad increase in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on October 8, with corn closing at $4.22 per bushel, up 2.25 cents (0.54%) from the previous trading day [1] - Wheat for December delivery settled at $5.07 per bushel, rising by 0.5 cents (0.1%) [1] - November soybean futures closed at $10.30 per bushel, gaining 7.5 cents (0.73%) [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Trends - November soybean prices broke through the 20-day and 50-day moving averages but faced resistance at $10.28 [1] - Market analysts expect significant volatility in the coming days, despite average trading volumes [1] Group 3: Ethanol Production and Inventory - The U.S. ethanol production for the week ending October 3 was reported at 315 million gallons, an increase from 293 million gallons the previous week, marking a 3% year-over-year growth [1] - Ethanol inventory stood at 954 million gallons, down 2 million gallons from the previous week but up 3% year-over-year [1] Group 4: Weather Conditions Impacting Agriculture - Weather forecasts indicate increased rainfall in central Brazil, particularly in Mato Grosso and South Mato Grosso states, expected to last until the end of October [2] - Southern Brazil, including Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná states, will also experience rain until October 18, creating favorable conditions for crop growth in South America [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates mixed price movements in the Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans on October 7, with corn and wheat prices declining while soybean prices increased slightly [1] - The most active December corn contract closed at $4.20 per bushel, down 2 cents or 0.47% from the previous trading day; the December wheat contract closed at $5.07 per bushel, down 6 cents or 1.17%; and the November soybean contract closed at $10.22 per bushel, up 4.25 cents or 0.42% [1] - The corn and soybean prices are experiencing a rebound but are stagnating near major moving averages, with expectations of a seasonal decline in U.S. export demand and the upcoming harvest in the Southern Hemisphere starting in November [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown has led to delays in the release of crop growth, export, and final yield data from the USDA, resulting in low market trading volumes [1] - It is anticipated that the market will likely exhibit a volatile trend for the remainder of the week [1] - The international crop year began on October 1, and the market will closely monitor global corn trade in the coming weeks [1] Group 3 - Brazil's soybean exports in September reached 7.3 million tons, up from 6.4 million tons in the same period last year; corn exports were 7.6 million tons, also higher than last year's 6.4 million tons [1] - Weather forecasts indicate that the southern plains of the U.S. and states like Iowa and Wisconsin will receive rainfall in the next 4-5 days, which will benefit newly planted hard red winter wheat [2] - The rainfall is expected to have minimal impact on grain harvesting in the Midwest [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index experienced a decline of 0.27%, closing at 28.8115 points, after reaching a daily high of 29.0398 points earlier in the day [1] Summary by Category Market Performance - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.59% [1] - CBOT wheat futures decreased by 1.37% [1] - CBOT soybean futures increased by 0.32%, reaching $10.21 per bushel [1] - Soymeal futures declined by 0.14% [1] - Soybean oil futures rose by 1.35% [1]

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw most contracts rise on October 3, with raw sugar futures increasing by 0.61% to 16.50 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures rose by 0.32% to 65.30 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell by 4.77% to $6,172.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures increased by 2.71% to 388.35 cents per pound [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a decline in major agricultural futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on October 3, with soybean futures down by 0.66% to 1017.00 cents per bushel, corn futures down by 0.53% to 419.50 cents per bushel, and wheat futures remaining unchanged at 514.75 cents per bushel [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures experienced a decrease of 0.66% [1] - Corn futures saw a decline of 0.53% [1] - Wheat futures remained stable with no change [1]

Group 1 - Chicago futures market saw an overall increase in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on October 2, with corn rising to $4.22 per bushel, wheat to $5.15, and soybeans to $10.24, reflecting increases of 1.26%, 1.08%, and 1.06% respectively [1] - Market optimism is driven by expectations of discussions on U.S. agricultural trade between Chinese and U.S. leaders in South Korea at the end of October, contributing to the rebound and stability of agricultural futures prices [1] - Current market conditions indicate record corn production and a surge in physical supply, while demand for U.S. soybeans and sorghum from China remains insufficient, and there is an oversupply in the wheat export market [1] Group 2 - Weather forecasts predict warm and dry conditions in two-thirds of Brazil's northern soybean planting area until October 12, facilitating rapid soybean planting in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul [2] - Argentina's main wheat-producing regions are expected to receive more rainfall, which has increased the potential wheat production for 2024 from 18.5 million tons to between 21 million and 22 million tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) saw a mixed performance in agricultural futures, with sugar futures rising while cotton, cocoa, and coffee futures experienced declines [1] Group 1: Agricultural Futures Performance - Sugar futures increased by 1.80%, closing at 16.42 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 0.73%, closing at 65.11 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell by 3.48%, closing at $6,443.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures dropped by 1.09%, closing at 379.70 cents per pound [1]