2025年11月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期利空暂充分，关注产地去库进程 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆企稳，豆油偏强震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：新棉上市压力仍压制期价 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：近弱远强，反套格局 | 10 | | 生猪：降温涨价预期落空，压力逐步释放 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,708 | 涨跌幅 0.32% | 收盘价（夜盘） 8,846 | 涨跌幅 1.58% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 0.62% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,320 | 0.46% | 8,366 | 0.55% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,874 | -0.06% | 9,935 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [2][6][9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short term, cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may decline after cost solidification. In the long - term, due to low initial inventory and resilient consumption, the supply - demand situation won't be too loose, and cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure [2] - For sugar, in the short term, the support at around 5400 is strong, and it will fluctuate before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price may hit a new low next year [6] - Regarding pulp, the fundamental improvement is insufficient, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [9] Group 3: Summary According to Cotton - Related Content Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,395 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,558 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1163, up 29 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 14,789 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1394, up 38 from the previous day [1] - In October 2025, China's cotton import volume was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (10%) from September and 20,000 tons (15.6%) from the same period last year. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 770,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.4%. From September 2025 to August 2026, the cumulative cotton imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.4% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA November report significantly increased the US cotton production. The global cotton production, consumption, and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season all increased compared to September, with a bearish adjustment. After the data release, the US cotton futures price fell. With the new cotton concentratedly listed in the Northern Hemisphere, the supply pressure is still being released, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak, so the short - term external market is expected to be under pressure [2] - Domestically, since the National Day holiday, as the harvesting progress accelerated, the market's expectation of new cotton production declined, and the purchase price of seed cotton gradually stabilized and rebounded, supporting the previous upward trend of the futures price. However, the new cotton is still expected to increase in production overall, and the downstream "Golden September and Silver October" peak season was not prosperous, with limited order increments mainly in small and short orders. Now in the off - season of the textile industry, textile enterprises purchase cotton raw materials as needed, and the demand support is insufficient [2] Group 4: Summary According to Sugar - Related Content Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5407 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton (-0.93%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5600 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 193, up 21 from the previous day [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season. The sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% year - on - year to 181.77 million tons, while the consumption will only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The global sugar market had a supply - demand gap of 2.92 million tons in the 2024/25 season [3] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, Brazil's supply remains strong, and the production outlook for the next season is optimistic. India's sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to rebound significantly, and the export expectation increases. Thailand's sugar production is also expected to increase, and the global bumper harvest pattern suppresses the futures price. However, India's exports are still difficult to increase in the short term, and the supply pressure in the later stage of Brazil's sugar - crushing season is gradually weakening, so the short - term decline space of raw sugar may be limited. In the long - term, the surplus pattern restricts the rebound momentum of raw sugar, and it is difficult to break away from the low - level oscillation range [4] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the domestic sugar production in the new season is still expected to increase strongly. However, the current price has fallen to near the sugar - making cost line, and sugar mills have the intention to support the price at the beginning of the season. Coupled with the stricter control policy on syrup, it provides short - term support for sugar prices, and the decline space of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited [4] Group 5: Summary According to Pulp - Related Content Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5408 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton (-1.21%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP01 + 142, up 66 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5125 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP01 - 283, up 66 from the previous day [7] - Yesterday, the spot prices of imported wood pulp mostly stabilized, with some pulp varieties showing a weak trend. The price of the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange weakened. The shipment of imported softwood pulp by traders was still slow, and the prices of some grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The imported hardwood pulp market traders continued to hold prices, and downstream enterprises mostly purchased on a just - in - time basis. The trading in the imported natural pulp and imported chemimechanical pulp markets had no obvious fluctuations, and the prices were stable [7] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The de - stocking speed of domestic ports was lower than expected, and the port inventory remained high for a long time, so the supply - loose pattern has not changed substantially [8] - In terms of demand, the pulp consumption in Europe and the United States remained weak, and the inventory pressure of global pulp mills gradually emerged. Weak domestic demand is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. Although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation this year, the terminal effective demand was always insufficient, the paper was in a surplus state, the paper mill operating rate declined, and the overall output of finished paper did not increase significantly. The over - capacity in the paper sector led to continuous contraction of industry profits. Now in the traditional peak season of the industry, downstream paper mills are cautious in purchasing raw materials and have not carried out large - scale stockpiling [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is in a stage of game between cost - driven factors and industrial chain pressure. For soybean meal, there is a divergence between domestic and foreign markets, with a pattern of strong foreign and weak domestic prices. For soybean oil, it is affected by raw material costs and external market prices, and the high inventory is the main resistance to price increases. For palm oil, it is in a stage of bottom - building with limited rebound space [5][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly oscillating; Reference view: weakly oscillating [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The US soybean futures price is supported by strong crushing and good export expectations, providing cost support for domestic imported soybeans. However, the abundant domestic soybean arrivals and high inventory of soybean meal in oil mills suppress the basis to be continuously negative. Short - term attention should be paid to South American weather and domestic inventory reduction rhythm [5] Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strongly oscillating; Reference view: strongly oscillating [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The soybean oil market is affected by the cost change of raw material soybeans and the price of US soybean oil in the external market. The domestic supply is very loose, with high inventory (up to nearly 1.2 million tons) and weak terminal consumption, resulting in light spot market transactions. Before there are obvious signals of supply - demand change, the price is expected to oscillate strongly within the current range [7] Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strongly oscillating; Reference view: strongly oscillating [6][8] - **Core Logic**: The BMD crude palm oil rebounds from a low level, but the increase in Malaysian production and sluggish exports in November are the main drags. The domestic palm oil inventory continues to accumulate, and the futures price is in a stage of bottom - building, with limited rebound space [8]

新华财经纽约11月18日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价18日涨跌不一。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳4.4850美元，比前一交易日上涨0.50美分，涨 幅为0.11%；小麦2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳5.5900美元，比前一交易日上涨0.50美分，涨幅为 0.09%；大豆2026年1月合约收于每蒲式耳11.5050美元，比前一交易日下跌6.75美分，跌幅为0.58%。 美国农业部18日发布的数据显示，美国玉米收割率已达91%，比去年同期下降7%，五年平均水平为 94%。这意味着仍有高达15亿蒲式耳的玉米尚未收割。美国大豆收割率达95%，低于去年同期的98%和 96%的五年平均水平。目前仍有2.1亿蒲式耳大豆待收割。美国冬小麦播种率达92%，低于去年同期的 94%和95%的五年平均水平。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2460 - 2520. The market has returned to a state of oscillation while awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season for rapeseed meal has passed, but low inventory supports the market. In the short term, it is influenced by soybean meal and maintains range - bound fluctuations. The market is currently focusing on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of a tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [9]. 3. Summary According to Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2460 - 2520 range - bound oscillation. The market is influenced by soybean meal and is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak has passed, but low inventory supports the market [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing market expectations. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From November 7th to 17th, as the date progresses, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuates slightly, and the trading volume also shows significant fluctuations. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal gradually decreases, and the trading volume is 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually widens [13]. - From November 7th to 17th, the prices of rapeseed meal futures (both the main 2601 and far - month 2605 contracts) and the spot price of rapeseed meal (in Fujian) all show a downward trend [15]. - From November 6th to 17th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remain at 2745 or 2755, with only a slight change on November 6th and 7th [16]. - The import of rapeseed has no ship schedule forecast in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory remain at a low level, and the rapeseed crushing volume also stays low. Aquatic fish prices decline slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [22][24][34]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within 2460 - 2520, with a neutral fundamental view. The basis is positive, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory is decreasing, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main long positions are increasing while the capital is flowing out, all of which are bullish signals. Due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the recent rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, it will return to an oscillating pattern in the short term [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - **For Bean Meal (M2601)**: The domestic bean meal is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern between 3080 and 3140. It is influenced by the US soybean trend, with short - term demand in the off - season and spot price discount suppressing the upward movement. Although China's purchase of US soybeans supports the short - term US soybean market, there are uncertainties in the purchase volume, and the overall good US soybean harvest weather restricts the upside. Additionally, the relatively high arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China also affects the domestic bean meal market [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2601)**: The domestic soybean price is expected to fluctuate between 4160 and 4260. The US soybean trend, the cost support of imported soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price. However, the high production of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppress the price [11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are uncertainties in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is expected to be range - bound above the thousand - point mark in the short term, waiting for further guidance on the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the planting weather in South American soybean - producing areas. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from a high level. The relatively normal harvest weather of US soybeans and the China - US trade negotiation agreement led to the short - term range - bound pattern of domestic bean meal, waiting for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bean Meal Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' bean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bean Meal Bearish Factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in November, the listing of harvested US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a good US soybean harvest [14]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: High production of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases, and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: Spot price is 3000 (East China), with a basis of - 43, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill bean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: Not specifically elaborated on fundamental data other than the price range and influencing factors 5. Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The main short positions increased, and the funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: Not specifically elaborated on position data other than the price range and influencing factors 6. Bean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies - **Bean Meal (M2601)**: The short - term trend is neutral. The basis is bearish, the inventory is bearish, the price on the chart is bullish, the main position is bearish, and the overall short - term expectation is a range - bound pattern [9]. - **Soybeans (A2601)**: The short - term trend is neutral. The basis is bearish, the inventory is bearish, the price on the chart is bullish, the main position is bearish, and the overall short - term expectation is a range - bound pattern [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][8][10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The cotton market lacks obvious upward drivers, with international and domestic markets facing supply - demand imbalances. In the short - term, cotton prices are under pressure, while in the long - term, they are expected to be more optimistic. The sugar market is in a globally over - supplied situation, but short - term price declines are limited, and long - term trends are not optimistic. The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance, with supply remaining loose and demand weak, limiting the rebound of pulp prices [2][7][9] Group 3: Summary by Different Commodities Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,445 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.04%. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,579 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 14,801 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. According to the USDA's November report, the 2025/26 US cotton planting area is 56.427 million mu, the harvest area is 44.729 million mu, with a constant abandonment rate of 20.7%. The expected yield per mu is 68.7 kg, up 6.7% from September, and the expected output is 3.073 million tons, an increase of 194,000 tons from September. The expected consumption is 370,000 tons, and the expected export volume is 2.654 million tons, an increase of 44,000 tons from September. The ending inventory increases by 152,000 tons to 936,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's November report significantly increased the US cotton output, and the global cotton output, consumption, and ending inventory in the 2025/26 season all increased compared to September, with a bearish adjustment direction. The northern hemisphere's new cotton is concentrated on the market, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak. Domestically, the expected new cotton output has declined, and the seed cotton purchase price has stabilized and rebounded. However, new cotton is still expected to increase in production, the downstream "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is not prosperous, and it is currently the off - season for the textile industry, with insufficient demand [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - term, cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may decline after cost solidification. In the long - term, the beginning inventory of the new year is low, consumption is resilient, and the supply - demand is not too loose. After the seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,458 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.22%. Spot: The sugar spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the second half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 31.108 million tons, an increase of 3.902 million tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 14.34%. The sugar production was 2.068 million tons, an increase of 292,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 16.40%. From the beginning of the 2025/26 crushing season to the second half of October, the cumulative sugar production was 38.085 million tons, an increase of 611,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.63% [4][5] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in a pattern of over - supply, with Brazil's supply remaining strong, India's sugar production expected to rebound significantly, and Thailand's sugar production also expected to increase. However, in the short - term, India's exports are difficult to increase, and Brazil's supply pressure is gradually weakening. The domestic new crushing season has a strong expectation of increased sugar production, but the current price is close to the cost line, and the sugar mills have the intention to support the price, and the syrup control policy is tightened, so the decline space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [6][7] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - term, the support around 5,400 is strong, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price may not be optimistic next year, with the possibility of new lows [8] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5,474 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.11%. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Baikal) was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market fluctuated slightly, with only a few pulp types showing a strengthening trend [9] Market Analysis - Supply: The European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port inventory removal was slower than expected, and the supply remained loose. Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was increasing. Domestic demand was weak, and although there was a large amount of finished paper production capacity put into operation this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper mills' operating rate declined [9] Strategy - Neutral. The fundamental improvement of the pulp market is insufficient, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [10]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: Short - term negative factors are fully priced in, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [1]. - Soybean oil: With the stabilization of US soybeans, soybean oil will fluctuate strongly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume** - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,680 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.42%, and (night session) 8,688 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.09%. Trading volume is 585,987 lots, a decrease of 1,258 lots, and open interest is 419,635 lots, a decrease of 13,845 lots [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,282 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.31%, and (night session) 8,284 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.02%. Trading volume is 275,749 lots, an increase of 29,309 lots, and open interest is 452,776 lots, a decrease of 6,967 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,880 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.43%, and (night session) 9,894 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.14%. Trading volume is 251,460 lots, a decrease of 12,202 lots, and open interest is 245,352 lots, a decrease of 3,228 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis** - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price is 8,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and basis is - 110 yuan/ton [1]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price is 8,640 yuan/ton, unchanged, and basis is 358 yuan/ton [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price is 10,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and basis is 430 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads** - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: Previous trading day was 1,279 yuan/ton, and the day before was 1,223 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: - 398 yuan/ton, compared with - 388 yuan/ton previously [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Malaysia** - From November 1 - 15, 2025, palm oil yield per unit area increased by 1.82% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.43% month - on - month, and production increased by 4.09% month - on - month [2]. - AmSpec: Export volume from November 1 - 15 was 702,692 tons, a 10% decrease compared with the same period last month [3]. - SGS: Estimated export volume from November 1 - 15 was 334,295 tons, a 44.9% decrease compared with the same period last month [5]. - Malaysia set the reference price for palm oil exports in December at 4,206.38 ringgit/ton, with an export tax rate of 10.0%, compared with 4,262.23 ringgit/ton in November [5]. - **US Agriculture** - The USDA corrected the cumulative daily sales announcement. The sale of 130,000 tons of corn to Japan on October 24, 2025, was removed, and the sale of soybeans to China on November 3, 2025, was corrected from 232,000 tons to 132,000 tons [5]. - The USDA did not republish the weekly US crop growth report after the federal government resumed operation [5]. - **US Soybean Crushing** - In October, NOPA member companies crushed 227.647 million bushels of soybeans, a 15.1% increase from September and a 13.9% increase from October 2024, setting a new record. As of October 31, soybean oil inventory reached 1.305 billion pounds, a 5.0% increase from the end of September and a 21.5% increase from the same period last year [6]. - **Brazilian Soybeans** - As of November 15, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 69.0%, compared with 58.4% last week, 73.8% last year, and a five - year average of 67.2% [7]. - In the first two weeks of November, Brazil exported 2,302,124.10 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 230,212.40 tons, a 71% increase compared with the average daily export volume in November last year [7]. - **Ukrainian Crops** - As of November 13, Ukraine harvested 47.937 million tons of grains and legumes on 9.826 million hectares of land, with an average yield of 4.88 tons per hectare. Among them, 4.654 million tons of soybeans were harvested on 1.96 million hectares of land, with an average yield of 2.38 tons per hectare [8]. 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [9].

每经AI快讯，当地时间11月17日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨，大 豆期货涨2.93%报1157.50美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨1.05%报434.75美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货涨3.19%报 558.75美分/蒲式耳。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - One-star ratings (indicating a bullish or bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market): Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, eggs [1] - White-star ratings (indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend with poor market operability, suggesting a wait-and-see approach): Corn [1] - Three-star ratings (indicating a clearer bullish or bearish trend with relatively appropriate current investment opportunities): Not specified in the text - Other ratings (not clearly defined in the text): Soybean, palm oil, soybean oil, live pigs [1] Core Views - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, supply and demand, and trade policies. Different agricultural products show different price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean futures prices are strong. High-protein soybean supply is tight due to adverse weather, and the price difference with imported soybeans is widening. The number of domestic soybean warehouse receipts is increasing. Imported soybean prices are expected to be volatile and strong, with attention on US soybean exports and South American soybean planting [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The USDA November supply and demand report shows a decline in US new soybean production and other indicators, but the market has fully priced in the bullish expectations before the report. South American soybean planting progress is slow, and attention should be paid to the impact of La Nina. The domestic market has sufficient soybean supply and poor crushing profits. The strategy is to wait for the price to stabilize and then go long [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The USDA report's bullish factors are exhausted, and the price is in a sideways shock. The domestic soybean oil is strong, and the oil-to-meal ratio and the soybean-palm oil price difference are increasing. Palm oil supply and demand pressure continues, and the price trend needs clear supply and demand guidance [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed series has declined recently due to the impact of the US soybean slump after the US agricultural report. The global rapeseed production has increased, and the export volume of some countries has also increased. The rapeseed series has a statistical premium, and the demand is weak. The futures price is under short-term pressure [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures are weakly volatile. The increase in new corn in the Northeast has decreased, and the price is slightly stronger. The USDA report is neutral to bearish, and the domestic market needs to pay attention to the impact of the import auction and the signing of the trade agreement. The futures price is expected to wait for a pullback [7] Live Pigs - The spot and futures prices of live pigs are weak. The short-term price is under pressure, and the long-term price may form a double bottom [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is stable and weak, and the futures price of the near-month contract is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in the near-month contract [9]