Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of various energy and chemical options, including fundamental aspects, market trends, volatility analysis, and provides corresponding option trading strategies and suggestions for different types of energy and chemical options [3]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Energy and Chemical Option Classification - Energy and chemical options are mainly divided into five categories: basic chemicals (methanol, rubber, synthetic rubber, styrene options), energy (crude oil, liquefied gas options), polyester chemicals (paraxylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber options), polyolefin chemicals (polypropylene, PVC, polyethylene options), and other chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash, urea options) [3]. 3.2 Basic Chemicals Sector - **Methanol Options**: Last week, port inventory decreased to 46.32 tons, and enterprise inventory was 30.98 tons. The market has been in a wide - range rectangular consolidation. Implied volatility is above the historical average. A bullish + bearish option bearish portfolio strategy is recommended, such as S_MA2506P2275, S_MA2506P2300, S_MA2506C2350, S_MA2506C2375 [3]. - **Rubber/Synthetic Rubber Options**: The market price of high - cis butadiene rubber in various regions has decreased. The market shows a weak consolidation pattern under bearish pressure. Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. A bearish volatility - selling strategy is recommended, such as S_RU2509P14250, S_RU2509P14500, S_RU2509C15250, S_RU2509C15500 [3]. - **Styrene Options**: Both factory and port inventories have decreased, but the rate of decline has weakened. The market has been volatile after a decline. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high historical level. A volatility - selling option portfolio strategy is recommended, such as S_EB2506P6900, S_EB2506P7000, S_EB2506C7200, S_EB2506C7300 [4]. 3.3 Oil and Gas Sector - **Crude Oil Options**: OPEC plans to increase production, and US supply has declined. The market has shown large fluctuations under bearish pressure. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high level. A bear put spread strategy is recommended, such as B_SC2506P485 and S_SC2506P465 [4]. - **Liquefied Gas Options**: Port inventory has rebounded, and the production capacity utilization rate of related industries has changed. The market has shown a short - term weak rebound. Implied volatility is above the historical average. A bearish call + put option selling strategy is recommended, such as S_PG2506P4350, S_PG2506P4300, S_PG2506C4450, S_PG2506C4500 [4]. 3.4 Polyester Chemicals Sector - **PX/PTA Options**: PTA load is 78.9%, and multiple devices are in maintenance. The market has shown a mild bullish trend. Implied volatility is at a relatively high level. A volatility - selling strategy is recommended, such as S_TA2506P4450 and S_TA2506C4600 [5]. - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: Last week, the EG load was 68.5%. The market has shown large fluctuations under bearish pressure. Implied volatility has rapidly risen to a relatively high historical level. A volatility - selling strategy is recommended, such as S_EG2506P4100 and S_EG2506C4250 [5]. - **Short - Fiber Options**: Port inventory has increased, and downstream factory inventory days have risen. The market has shown a rebound after a decline. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high average level. A volatility - selling call + put option selling strategy is recommended, such as S_PF2506P6000, S_PF2506P6100, S_PF2506C6400, S_PF2506C6500 [5]. 3.5 Polyolefin Chemicals Sector - **Polypropylene Options**: PP production enterprise inventory has decreased this week, and the market has shown a wide - range volatile pattern under pressure. Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. A bearish call + put option selling strategy is recommended, such as S_PP2506P7100, S_PP2506P7000, S_PP2506C7200, S_PP2506C7300 [6]. - **Polyethylene Options**: PE production enterprise inventory has increased, and the market has shown a weak consolidation pattern under pressure. Implied volatility has rapidly risen to a relatively high level. A bearish directional strategy is recommended, such as B_L2506P7200 and S_L2506C7300 [6]. - **PVC Options**: Factory and social inventories have changed, and the market has shown a volatile rebound pattern under pressure. Implied volatility remains at a relatively low level. A bearish directional strategy is recommended, such as B_V2506P4900, B_V2506P4950, S_V2506C5000, S_V2506C5100 [6]. 3.6 Data Summary - **Option Underlying Market Data**: Provides closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest for various option underlying assets [8]. - **Option Volume, Open Interest, and Turnover Data**: Includes volume, volume changes, open interest, open interest changes, turnover, and turnover changes for different options [9]. - **Option Volume, Open Interest, and Turnover PCR Data**: Presents PCR values and their changes for volume, open interest, and turnover of different options [10]. - **Option Maximum Open Interest at Strike Prices**: Lists the maximum open interest at call and put strike prices, as well as pressure and support levels for different options [11]. - **Option Implied Volatility Data**: Provides implied volatility, implied volatility changes, annual averages, call and put implied volatilities, and volatility differences for different options [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Most commodities are expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short term, with some showing potential for decline or upside. Amid uncertainties in tariffs and changing policies, investors are advised to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to market conditions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - For stock index futures, it's recommended to hold a light position and wait for a clear market direction. Due to high overseas uncertainties during the May Day holiday and low option volatility, consider a double - buy strategy for stock index options before the holiday [1]. - The bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Gold is in short - term oscillation adjustment, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper has decent downstream demand, but there is a risk of price correction due to trade frictions [1]. - Aluminum prices oscillate due to uncertainties in global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina's supply - demand pattern has improved, with limited downside but lack of upward momentum [1]. - Zinc has support from low near - month inventory but faces fundamental suppression, presenting short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices oscillate after bottom - up repair. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowon nickel and beware of policy changes [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see, and the industrial side should focus on policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - Tin has a risk of supply premium disappearing as the复产 expectation in Low - Bang strengthens [1]. Industrial and Energy - Related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a state of oversupply, with demand not improving and inventory pressure not relieved [1]. - Polysilicon's抢装潮 is ending, with demand expected to decline in the second half of the year. There is a need for a rebound after a large short - term decline [1]. - Carbonate lithium has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, with downstream maintaining just - in - time purchases [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil face downward pressure on opening prices due to trade disputes [1]. - Iron ore is under short - term pressure due to tariff policies and market sentiment [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron oscillate, with cost and supply - demand factors at play [1]. - Glass and soda ash face supply - demand imbalances, with prices under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and industrial customers can seize hedging opportunities [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by weather and market sentiment, and it's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1]. - Cotton prices may be affected by the trend of crude oil and the substitution effect between chemical fiber and cotton [1]. - Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply shortages and domestic high inventory [1]. - Corn may have a correction risk after the hype cools down, with a long - term bullish logic [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly, and M09 is recommended to be bought at low prices [1]. Forestry and Livestock - Pulp is recommended to be short - sold or hedged due to weak cost support and entering the off - season [1]. - Logs have high inventory and no short - term positive factors, expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Pigs have a clear downward expectation in the futures market due to increased supply and lack of downstream highlights [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as tariffs, OPEC + policies, and cost - demand relationships [1]. - Rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber oscillate, with weak fundamentals [1]. - PTA is bearish due to device maintenance and weak market sentiment [1]. - Ethylene glycol, styrene, urea, methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand and market sentiment factors affecting their price trends [1]. Others - For the container shipping European line, the peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report forecasts the trend of various futures on April 30, 2025, including their support and resistance levels, and also analyzes the market situation on April 29, 2025, along with relevant macro - news and commodity - related information [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate. IF2506 has resistance at 3748 and 3768 points, support at 3715 and 3705 points; IH2506 has resistance at 2640 and 2650 points, support at 2612 and 2605 points; IC2506 has resistance at 5530 and 5561 points, support at 5440 and 5420 points; IM2506 has resistance at 5820 and 5848 points, support at 5700 and 5668 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2506 and thirty - year TL2506 are likely to oscillate strongly. T2506 has resistance at 109.16 and 109.32 yuan, support at 109.00 and 108.88 yuan; TL2506 has resistance at 121.2 and 121.7 yuan, support at 120.8 and 120.4 yuan [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures AU2506 are likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance at 792.2 and 795.0 yuan/gram, support at 780.0 and 774.5 yuan/gram; Silver futures AG2506 are likely to oscillate widely, with resistance at 8296 and 8329 yuan/kg, support at 8159 and 8113 yuan/kg [3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures CU2506 are likely to oscillate widely, with resistance at 78200 and 78600 yuan/ton, support at 77600 and 77200 yuan/ton; Aluminum futures AL2506 are likely to oscillate strongly, attacking resistance at 20100 and 20190 yuan/ton, with support at 19930 and 19880 yuan/ton; Alumina futures AO2509 are likely to oscillate weakly, with support at 2650 and 2600 yuan/ton, resistance at 2770 and 2787 yuan/ton [3]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, iron ore, crude oil, PTA, PVC, and soybean meal futures are likely to oscillate weakly; Glass and soda ash futures are likely to oscillate weakly [1]. 3.2 Macro - news and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping emphasized Shanghai's role in building an international science and technology innovation center; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the US Treasury Secretary's remarks on the tariff war; the Ministry of Commerce commented on Boeing's situation; the central financial institutions supported Shanghai's construction of an international financial center; the central bank increased capital injection to ensure market liquidity; the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments carried out a market access barrier cleanup campaign; the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security proposed reform measures; the central bank mobilized the implementation of the financial "five - article" statistical system [9]. - **International News**: The US Secretary of Commerce mentioned trade agreements and tariff policies; the US Treasury Secretary planned to have talks and proposed tax - related measures; the "helmsman" of the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund warned of global economic risks; global investors sold ESG sustainable funds; US economic data such as job vacancies, consumer confidence, and housing prices were released; euro - zone economic data such as industrial and economic sentiment were released [11]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - **Domestic Futures Night Session**: Most domestic commodity futures closed lower at night, with energy - chemical products, black series, and some agricultural products falling, while some base metals had mixed performance [13]. - **International Futures**: International precious metal futures and oil futures closed lower on April 29, 2025; London base metals mostly fell; Chicago Board of Trade agricultural product futures closed lower [14]. - **Industry News**: The China National Coal Association called for regulating coal imports; the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a plan for the livestock - breeding grain - saving action; the World Bank predicted commodity prices; US API crude oil inventories increased; the US dollar index rose [15]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 29, 2025, major stock index futures contracts showed different trends, with some falling slightly and some having short - term rebounds, but most faced resistance and support levels [17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On April 29, 2025, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the ten - year and thirty - year contracts showing strong upward trends, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations to inject capital [40]. - **Other Futures**: Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and other futures also had their respective trends on April 29, 2025, and their future trends were predicted, including support and resistance levels [46].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-04-30 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250331 | 2025/03 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.50 | 50.20 | 50.80 | | 20250331 | 2025/03 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.80 | 50.40 | 53.00 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250401 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 51.20 | 50.80 | 51.10 | | 20250403 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 | % | 51.90 | 51.40 | 52.70 | | | | 活动指数 | | | | | | ...

Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue increased by 29.37% year-on-year [4] - The expected revenue for the first half of 2025 is anticipated to show significant growth compared to the previous year [4] - The company aims to avoid a repeat of the 2024 revenue shortfall, which was a significant lesson learned [4][8] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to enhance sales operations and focus on small molecule fertilizer projects to drive growth [4][8] - There is an emphasis on mergers and acquisitions to seize opportunities for expansion [4][8] - The company is optimizing its asset structure and integrating inefficient assets to improve profitability [5] Group 3: Market and Product Development - The small molecule functional fertilizer technology has matured, with the first production line already operational and receiving positive market feedback [3][5] - Future R&D will focus on developing more application scenarios and formulations for small molecule fertilizers [3] - The company is leveraging its 37-year brand foundation to promote small molecule fertilizers through various platforms [3] Group 4: Risk Management and Stock Performance - The management is actively monitoring stock market performance and aims to stabilize stock prices through improved operational performance [3][4] - The company is addressing liquidity risks by potentially selling stakes in joint ventures or financial assets [4][6] - There are plans to mitigate risks associated with potential delisting if revenue falls below 300 million and profits are negative [4][6] Group 5: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The agricultural input industry is shifting towards technology, service, and ecological competition, with a focus on digitalization and green products [7] - The company is exploring partnerships in the hydrogen energy sector to enhance its market position [9][10] - The overall industry is expected to see increased concentration and transformation driven by policy and market forces [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Energy Chemical Options Daily Report 2025 - 04 - 29 [2] - Report Type: Energy Chemical Options Strategy Morning Report - Analyst: Lu Pinxian, with qualification number F3047321 and trading consultation number Z0015541 [3] Group 2: Energy Chemical Options Classification - Basic Chemicals: Methanol options, rubber options, synthetic rubber options, styrene options [3] - Energy: Crude oil options, liquefied gas options [3] - Polyester Chemicals: Paraxylene options, PTA options, ethylene glycol options, staple fiber options [3] - Polyolefin Chemicals: Polypropylene options, PVC options, polyethylene options [3] - Other Chemicals: Caustic soda options, soda ash options, urea options [3] Group 3: Basic Chemicals Sector Analysis Methanol Options - Fundamental Analysis: Last week, port inventory was 46.32 tons, a decrease of 12.24 tons; enterprise inventory was 30.98 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons; enterprise orders to be delivered were 30.27 tons, an increase of 2.83 tons [3] - Market Analysis: Methanol has been weak since the high in March, accelerating its decline in April before rebounding. It has been consolidating in a wide - range rectangle in the past two weeks [3] - Volatility Analysis: The implied volatility of methanol options remains above the historical average [3] - Strategy: Construct a bearish combination strategy of call + put options to obtain time - value and directional returns. For example, S_MA2506P2275, S_MA2506P2300, S_MA2506C2350, S_MA2506C2375 [3] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber Options - Fundamental Analysis: The mainstream prices of high - cis butadiene rubber in Shandong, North China, East China, and South China have all decreased [3] - Market Analysis: Rubber shows a weak consolidation pattern under bearish pressure [3] - Volatility Analysis: The implied volatility of rubber options is currently at a relatively high historical level [3] - Strategy: Construct a bearish volatility - selling strategy to obtain directional and time - value returns. For example, S_RU2509P14250, S_RU2509P14500, S_RU2509C15250, S_RU2509C15500 [3] Styrene Options - Fundamental Analysis: Both factory and port inventories of styrene have decreased, but the de - stocking intensity has weakened. It is expected to turn to inventory accumulation next week [4] - Market Analysis: Styrene has been in a downward trend since the high in late February, accelerating its decline in early April before rebounding and oscillating in a range [4] - Volatility Analysis: The implied volatility of styrene options continues to fluctuate at a relatively high historical level [4] - Strategy: Construct a volatility - selling options combination strategy to obtain time - value and directional returns. For example, S_EB2506P6900, S_EB2506P7000, S_EB2506C7200, S_EB2506C7300 [4] Group 4: Oil and Gas Sector Analysis Crude Oil Options - Fundamental Analysis: OPEC plans to increase oil production in May, while US supply has declined [4] - Market Analysis: Crude oil rebounded in March, but its upward trend was blocked in April. It has been falling rapidly recently [4] - Volatility Analysis: The implied volatility of crude oil options remains at a relatively high level [4] - Strategy: Construct a volatility - selling strategy: sell put + call options combination strategy to obtain time - value returns. For example, S_SC2506P475 and S_SC2506C500 [4] Liquefied Gas Options - Fundamental Analysis: Port inventory has rebounded. PDH capacity utilization has reached a one - year low, and profits have dropped significantly [4] - Market Analysis: Liquefied gas rebounded in March, but has been falling since April, with a short - term weak rebound [4] - Volatility Analysis: The implied volatility of liquefied gas options remains above the historical average [4] - Strategy: Construct a bearish call + put options combination strategy, adjust the position delta dynamically according to market conditions, and close the position if the market rises or falls sharply. For example, S_PG2506P4350, S_PG2506P4300, S_PG2506C4450, S_PG2506C4500 [4] Group 5: Polyester Chemicals Sector Analysis PX and PTA Options - Fundamental Analysis: PTA load is 78.9%, a 3.5% increase. Multiple devices are in the maintenance season [5] - Market Analysis: PTA has gradually rebounded since last week, showing a moderate bullish trend under bearish pressure [5] - Volatility Analysis: The implied volatility of PTA options remains at a relatively high level [5] - Strategy: Construct a volatility - selling strategy to obtain time - value returns. For example, S_TA2506P4450 and S_TA2506C4600 [5] Ethylene Glycol Options - Fundamental Analysis: Last week, EG load was 68.5%, a 2.3% increase. Synthetic gas - based load increased, while ethylene - based load decreased [5] - Market Analysis: Ethylene glycol shows a short - term weak bearish and volatile pattern [5] - Volatility Analysis: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options has rapidly risen to a relatively high historical level [5] - Strategy: Construct a volatility - selling strategy to obtain time - value returns. For example, S_EG2506P4100 and S_EG2506C4250 [5] Staple Fiber Options - Fundamental Analysis: Port inventory is 77.5 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons. It is expected to continue to accumulate next week [5] - Market Analysis: Staple fiber has been in a downward trend since late February, accelerating its decline in April before rebounding [5] - Volatility Analysis: The implied volatility of staple fiber options remains at a relatively high average level [5] - Strategy: Construct a volatility - selling call + put options combination strategy to obtain time - value returns. For example, S_PF2506P6000, S_PF2506P6100, S_PF2506C6400, S_PF2506C6500 [5] Group 6: Polyolefin Chemicals Sector Analysis Polypropylene Options - Fundamental Analysis: PP production enterprise inventory is 60.44 tons, a 2.37% decrease this week compared to last week, and an 8.18% increase compared to the same period last year [6] - Market Analysis: Polypropylene shows a weak and volatile pattern under pressure [6] - Volatility Analysis: The implied volatility of polypropylene options fluctuates at a relatively high historical level [6] - Strategy: Construct a bearish call + put options combination strategy, adjust the position delta dynamically according to market conditions, and close the position if the market rises or falls sharply. For example, S_PP2506P7100, S_PP2506P7000, S_PP2506C7200, S_PP2506C7300 [6] Polyethylene Options - Fundamental Analysis: PE production enterprise inventory is 52.61 tons, a 5.86% increase compared to last week, and a 9.40% increase compared to the same period last year [6] - Market Analysis: Plastic has been in a downward trend since March, with a low - level consolidation after a sharp decline in April [6] - Volatility Analysis: The implied volatility of plastic options has rapidly risen to a relatively high level [6] - Strategy: Construct a bearish directional strategy to obtain directional returns. For example, B_L2506P7200 and S_L2506C7300 [6] PVC Options - Fundamental Analysis: Last week, factory inventory was 42 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons; social inventory was 68.8 tons, a decrease of 3.7 tons [6] - Market Analysis: PVC has been in a wide - range weak oscillation for more than a month, and then gradually turned weak [6] - Volatility Analysis: The implied volatility of PVC options remains at a relatively low level [6] - Strategy: Construct a bearish directional strategy to obtain directional returns. For example, B_V2506P4900, B_V2506P4950, S_V2506C5000, S_V2506C5100 [6] Group 7: Data Summary Option Underlying Market Data - Includes closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various option underlying assets such as methanol, rubber, etc. [8] Option Volume, Open Interest, and Amount Data - Volume, open interest, and amount data of various options, including their changes [9] Option Volume - Open Interest - Amount PCR Data - PCR data of volume, open interest, and amount of various options, including their changes [10] Option Maximum Open Interest at Strike Prices - The strike prices with the maximum open interest for calls and puts of various options, as well as pressure and support points [11] Option Implied Volatility Data - Implied volatility, its changes, annual average, call and put implied volatilities, and historical volatility data of various options [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Policy implementation will be focused in the second quarter, and China is well - prepared for the impact of US tariff measures [8] - The People's Bank of China will use a moderately loose monetary policy, including potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, to support the economy [8] - China's energy, food supply is sufficient, and the impact of reducing imports from the US is limited [16][28] Summary by Category Overnight Night - Market Trends - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Most closed down. Energy - chemical products mostly declined, with butadiene rubber down 1.18%, crude oil down 1.15%, etc.; black - series mostly fell, with coking coal down 1.57%; agricultural products generally dropped, while basic metals showed mixed results, and precious metals rose [2] - **International Precious Metals Futures**: Generally closed up, with COMEX gold futures up 1.71% at $3354.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.20% at $33.40 per ounce [3] - **International Oil Prices**: Weakened, with US crude futures down 1.79% at $61.89 per barrel and Brent crude futures down 1.87% at $64.57 per barrel [4] - **London Basic Metals**: Most rose, such as LME lead up 1.65% at $1977.00 per ton [4] - **CBOT Agricultural Products Futures**: Most closed down, except for soybeans up 0.19% at 1061.25 cents per bushel [4] Macro - Information - **Policy Announcements**: Policy implementation will peak in Q2; the central bank will use monetary tools and introduce incremental policies; relevant departments will promote project construction and address capital shortages [8][9] - **Diplomatic Responses**: There was no recent call between the two heads of state, and no negotiations on tariffs between China and the US [8] - **Industry Data**: As of March 2025, there were 151 futures companies in China; Shanghai's export container freight index declined [13][14] - **International News**: The US and Ukraine may sign a mineral framework agreement; tensions between India and Pakistan escalated [14] Energy - Chemical Futures - **Supply Situation**: Domestic energy supply is sufficient, and reducing imports from the US has no impact; inventories of some products like styrene and natural rubber changed [16] - **Company Response**: Yuanxing Energy's Alxa natural soda project phase II is progressing as planned [16] Metal Futures - **Gold Market**: China increased its gold reserves in Q1; domestic gold ETF holdings grew significantly; Hong Kong's gold exports to the mainland changed [19][20] - **Other Metals**: The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026; SHFE is soliciting casting aluminum alloy futures delivery products [19][21] Black - Series Futures - **Policy Measures**: Promote automobile consumption, stabilize the capital and real estate markets, and support the real economy [23] - **Iron Ore Data**: China's iron ore arrivals and global shipments changed in a certain period; Brazil's iron ore shipping data showed an increase [23][24][26] Agricultural Product Futures - **Supply Security**: Reducing US agricultural imports has little impact on China's food supply [28] - **Market Data**: Prices of pigs, corn, and other products changed; soybean processing, inventory, and trading data were reported; overseas agricultural production and shipping data were also provided [28][29][32] Financial Markets Commodities - **Commodity Futures**: Domestic and international commodity futures showed various trends; gold reserves and consumption data in China were reported; rice prices in Japan hit a record high [39][40][44] Bonds - **Bond Market**: Treasury futures mostly rose; convertible bond indices fell; government bond issuance data was reported; yields of US and European bonds changed; some bond events occurred [45][46] Foreign Exchange - **Exchange Rates**: The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar changed; major RMB exchange rate indices rose; the impact of US bond fluctuations on China's foreign exchange reserves is limited [49] Upcoming Events - **Domestic**: The People's Bank of China has reverse - repurchase maturities; many companies will release financial reports [52] - **International**: Central bank officials will give speeches; some international meetings will be held; the Japanese market is closed for a holiday [52][54]

中原期货研究所 中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（76）期 发布日期：2025-04-29 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 宏观要闻 1、我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措。在支持就业方面，主要包括鼓励 企业积极稳定就业、加大职业技能培训力度、扩大以工代赈等支持、加强就业公共服务等举措； 在稳定外贸发展方面，主要包括"一业一策""一企一策"加大支持力度、帮助出口企业规避 风险、扩大服务产品出海、鼓励外资企业境内再投资等；在促进消费方面，主要包括扩大服务 消费、强化失能老年人照护、推动汽车消费扩容、构建技能导向的薪酬分配制度等；在积极扩 大有效投资方面，主要包括完善消费基础设施、大力提振民间投资积极性、设立新型政策性金 融工具等；在营造稳定发展的良好环境方面，主要包括持续稳定和活跃资本市场、持续巩固房 地产市场稳定态势、加大对实体经济的金融支持等。这些若干举措将成熟一项、出台一项。 2 ...

据国是直通车，中国黄金协会28日发布的数据显示，2025年1季度，中国国内黄金ETF持仓增长23.47 吨，较2024年1季度增仓5.49吨同比增长327.73%。至3月底，国内黄金ETF持有量为138.21吨。 银河证券基金研究中心统计，股票ETF（含跨境ETF）过去一周资金净流出接近100亿元。在各大类ETF 中，黄金ETF继续成为最"吸金"的品种，过去一周资金净流入前四的ETF被黄金ETF包揽，全市场黄金 ETF过去一周资金净流入超180亿元。 3.公募基金年内分红超800亿元，ETF分红猛增182% 一、ETF行业快讯1.三大指数震荡下挫，公用事业板块ETF逆市上涨 今日，三大指数震荡下挫，上证综指下跌0.2%，深证成指下跌0.62%，创业板指下跌0.65%。多只公用 事业板块ETF上涨，其中，公用事业ETF（560190.SH）上涨1.23%，绿电ETF（562550.SH）上涨 0.94%，公用事业ETF基金（560620.SH）上涨0.88%。机械设备板块多只ETF下跌，机器人ETF （159770.SZ）下跌1.62%，机器人ETF基金（562360.SH）下跌1.55%，工业母机ETF（15 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Energy Chemical Options Daily Report 2025 - 04 - 28 [2] - Author: Lu Pinxian [3] - Main Content: Analysis of various energy chemical options including fundamental, market, and volatility analysis, and provides strategy recommendations [3] Group 2: Industry Classification and Options - Energy chemical options are mainly divided into 5 categories: basic chemicals, energy, polyester chemicals, polyolefin chemicals, and other chemicals [3] - Specific options include methanol, rubber, synthetic rubber, styrene, crude oil, liquefied gas, etc. [3] Group 3: Basic Chemicals Sector Methanol Options - Fundamental: Last week, port inventory was 46.32 tons, down 12.24 tons; enterprise inventory was 30.98 tons, down 0.26 tons; enterprise orders to be delivered were 30.27 tons, up 2.83 tons [3] - Market: After falling from the March high, it continued to weaken, accelerated decline in April and then rebounded, and has been consolidating in a wide - range rectangular interval in the past two weeks [3] - Volatility: Implied volatility remained above the historical average [3] - Strategy: Construct a bullish + bearish option bearish combination strategy [3] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber Options - Fundamental: The mainstream price of high - cis butadiene rubber in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,700 yuan/ton, etc. [3] - Market: Rubber showed a weak consolidation trend under the bearish pressure line [3] - Volatility: Implied volatility was at a relatively high historical level [3] - Strategy: Construct a bearish short - volatility strategy [3] Styrene Options - Fundamental: Both factory and port inventories decreased, but the decline weakened, and it may turn to inventory accumulation next week [4] - Market: After falling from the late - February high, it continued to weaken, accelerated decline in early April and then rebounded, showing a large - fluctuation weak market [4] - Volatility: Implied volatility continued to fluctuate at a relatively high historical level [4] - Strategy: Construct a short - volatility option combination strategy [4] Group 4: Oil and Gas Sector Crude Oil Options - Fundamental: OPEC plans to increase oil production in May; US supply declined [4] - Market: It rebounded in March, rose and then fell in April, and showed a large - fluctuation market under the bearish pressure line this week [4] - Volatility: Implied volatility remained at a relatively high level [4] - Strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy: sell put + sell call option combination [4] Liquefied Gas Options - Fundamental: Port inventory rebounded; PDH capacity utilization decreased, etc. [4] - Market: It rebounded from March to April, then fell and rebounded weakly [4] - Volatility: Implied volatility remained above the historical average [4] - Strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy [4] Group 5: Polyester Chemicals Sector PX and PTA Options - Fundamental: PTA load was 78.9%, up 3.5%; multiple devices had maintenance plans [5] - Market: After the previous bearish release, it rebounded last week, showing a mild bullish trend under the bearish pressure line [5] - Volatility: Implied volatility remained at a relatively high level [5] - Strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy [5] Ethylene Glycol Options - Fundamental: Last week, EG load was 68.5%, up 2.3%; different production methods had different load changes [5] - Market: It showed a large - fluctuation weak bearish market under pressure [5] - Volatility: Implied volatility rapidly rose to a relatively high historical level [5] - Strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy [5] Short - Fiber Options - Fundamental: Port inventory was 77.5 tons, up 0.4 tons; downstream factory inventory days increased [5] - Market: It declined continuously since late February, accelerated decline in April and then rebounded, showing an oversold rebound market under pressure [5] - Volatility: Implied volatility remained at a relatively high average level [5] - Strategy: Construct a short - volatility sell call + put option combination strategy [5] Group 6: Polyolefin Chemicals Sector Polypropylene Options - Fundamental: PP production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.37% this week; trade and port inventories had different changes [6] - Market: It showed a large - fluctuation weak market under pressure [6] - Volatility: Implied volatility fluctuated at a relatively high historical level [6] - Strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy [6] Polyethylene Options - Fundamental: PE production enterprise inventory increased by 5.86%; trade inventory decreased [6] - Market: It declined continuously since March, fell sharply in April and then consolidated weakly [6] - Volatility: Implied volatility rapidly rose to a relatively high level [6] - Strategy: Construct a bearish directional strategy [6] PVC Options - Fundamental: Last week, factory inventory increased by 0.9 tons; social inventory decreased by 3.7 tons [6] - Market: It consolidated weakly in a wide range for more than a month and then turned weak [6] - Volatility: Implied volatility remained at a relatively low level [6] - Strategy: Construct a bearish directional strategy [6] Group 7: Data Summary - Option underlying market data includes closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest for each option [8] - Option volume, open interest, and amount data are provided for each option [9] - Option volume - PCR, open interest - PCR, and amount - PCR data are presented for each option [10] - The maximum open interest strike price, pressure point, and support point are given for each option [11] - Implied volatility data such as implied volatility rate, change, and average are provided for each option [13]