文字早评 2025/06/25 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+1.15%，创指+2.30%，科创 50+1.79%，北证 50+3.65%，上证 50+1.16%，沪深 300+1.20%， 中证 500+1.62%，中证 1000+1.92%，中证 2000+2.22%，万得微盘+2.72%。两市合计成交 14146 亿，较上 一日+2920 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、伊朗和以色列已同意在 24 小时之内分阶段 "全面停火"，停火于周二开始，这场"持续 12 天的战 争"将正式结束。 2、央行：将研究制定新阶段金融科技发展规划，出台深化运用金融科技推动金融数字化智能化转型的 政策文件。 3、商务部将组织开展 2025 年千县万镇新能源汽车消费季活动，活动时间为 2025 年 7 月至 12 月。通知 指出，各地要认真落实汽车以旧换新政策，在新能源汽车消费季活动场地内普遍设置汽车以旧换新专区， 更好满足县乡地区群众多样化购车需求。 资金面：融资额+42.24 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+0.30bp 至 1.370%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.40bp 至 2.8716 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/24 | -185.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/23 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/20 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/19 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/18 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 25 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：李金（甲醇） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635 ...

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 石油石化 证券研究报告 伊以冲突，对能源化工品影响几何？ 伊朗石油&炼厂 我们估算 360 万桶产量=150 万桶原油出口（主要到中国）+80 万桶成品油 出口+130 本土消费。炼厂加工量约 210 万桶/天，新闻中起火的有油库和炼 厂，其中德黑兰炼厂能力 22.5 万桶/天。 首先，针对油田目标袭击，不如针对油库炼厂来的方便，类似俄乌也是对成 品油出口影响大于原油。其次，如果伊朗原油出口受影响，中国地炼油源或 将受损失。 天然气、LPG 和化工品 2022 年伊朗发电 85%靠天然气，天然气主要是南帕斯生产。伊朗的 LPG 基 本来自南帕斯，且 LPG 出口主要到中国，中国进口 LPG 有 27%来自伊朗。 中国进口伊朗甲醇、乙二醇分别占总进口量的 59%和 4%。 对以色列来说，袭击南帕斯气田效率非常高，对伊朗电力系统和民众的影响 力大。那么首先 LPG 潜在影响最大；其次气头的甲醇和乙二醇也有一定潜 在影响；第三对伊拉克电力系统也有潜在影响。 霍尔木兹海峡 2023 年霍尔木兹海峡的石油通过量 2090 万桶/天，占全球石油液体消费量 20%左右。沙特和阿联酋拥有少量绕过霍 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 24 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 股指期货：A 股低开高走， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of polysilicon dropped significantly. The closing price of PS2508 was 30,615 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.30%. The production is expected to increase slightly, while the demand pressure is gradually increasing, and the pessimistic expectation drives the market to weaken first [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The price of the main contract of polysilicon dropped significantly. The closing price of PS2508 was 30,615 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 88,450 lots and an open interest of 78,183 lots, a net increase of 10,054 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The expectation of concentrated production cuts has failed. The weekly production is expected to enter a stage of slight month - on - month increase. The terminal photovoltaic demand is expected to fall to about 40GW, and the inventory has been increasing since April. There is no positive news on the demand side during the policy vacuum period [4] 3.2 Market News - As of June 23, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - The transaction price range of N - type re -投料 was 32,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.27%. The transaction price range of N - type granular silicon was 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 33,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.90%. There was no bulk transaction of P - type polysilicon [5]

Group 1 - The company is exploring new paths for green development and accelerating its progress towards intelligent manufacturing [2] - The new PTMEG 08 unit has achieved a significant reduction in product color to below 10, marking a substantial improvement compared to the PTMEG 07 unit [2] - The company is actively engaging in technical exchanges in the new materials sector, focusing on the characteristics of Spandex 2.0, which offers advantages such as increased spinning speed and reduced production costs [2] Group 2 - The company is shifting from merely selling products to providing solutions, aiming to optimize product quality while maintaining cost advantages in the TPU industry [3] - Technical exchanges with Lianyungang Du Zhong New Ao Spandex Co., Ltd. have highlighted the need for innovation and lean management in the face of structural adjustments in the Spandex industry [3] - The company is committed to optimizing its industrial structure and enhancing its competitiveness in the energy chemical and liquid chemical logistics sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Junzheng Group is leveraging technology innovation and digital integration to drive industrial upgrades and green development in the energy and chemical sectors under the dual impetus of the "dual carbon" strategy and global industrial chain restructuring [1] Strategic Leadership: Building a Technological Innovation Ecosystem - By 2025, Junzheng Group aims to focus on "circular, low-carbon, green, and intelligent" directions, strengthening foundational capabilities through R&D investment and overcoming industry bottlenecks via technological breakthroughs [2] - The company has established an integrated circular economy industrial chain from coal, electricity, calcium carbide to PVC, caustic soda, environmentally friendly building materials, and silicon iron, creating a vertically integrated circular economy model [2] - Junzheng Group has implemented a unique "dual-wheel drive" model for innovation, promoting a technical innovation reward mechanism for all employees and building a collaborative innovation network through deep integration of industry, academia, and research [2] Technological Breakthroughs: Forging Industry-Leading Core Competencies - The company has continuously improved the value of its industrial chain through ongoing technological and management innovations, achieving significant reductions in industrial waste emissions and high-value utilization [3] - It has successfully reduced over 900,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually through waste management initiatives [3] - Junzheng Group has developed the world's first automated and intelligent control system for calcium carbide transfer, enhancing safety and efficiency in operations [3] Practical Challenges: A Multi-Dimensional Picture of Technological Breakthroughs - The company has made significant advancements in process optimization, successfully addressing challenges in its PTMEG 08 unit and achieving superior product quality compared to industry peers [4] - A project for the resource utilization of industrial salt from coking by-products has been implemented, achieving 100% recycling of by-product industrial salt [4] - The company has pioneered a "non-stop technical transformation" model, reducing the maintenance cycle of calcium carbide furnaces and extending electrode lifespan, setting a new industry standard [4] Ecological Co-Building: From Technology Output to Value Co-Creation - Junzheng Group's technological innovations resonate with industrial chain upgrades, transforming from a product supplier to a solution service provider by aligning R&D with downstream customer environmental needs [5] - The company is committed to optimizing its BDO distillation process to meet EU environmental regulations and is collaborating with customers to develop green materials [6] - Junzheng Group is fostering cross-industry integration by partnering with Huawei for a one-stop digital platform and implementing advanced ERP systems for seamless supply chain collaboration [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, BR rubber [1] - Bearish: Silver, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Coking coal, Coke, Styrene [1] - Sideways: Stock index, Treasury bond, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda ash, Canola oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, Shanghai rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, PP, PE, PVC, Calcined alumina, LPG, LPG shipping on the European line [1] Core Views - The domestic economic fundamentals have weak support, short - term domestic policy expectations are not strong, and overseas disturbances have intensified. The stock index will mainly fluctuate weakly. Use options to hedge uncertainties. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks restricts the upside space. The escalation of the Middle East situation may support the gold price, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains solid [1]. - For non - ferrous metals, the market risk preference is volatile. Copper inventories may decline further, and the copper price will maintain a high - level sideways movement. Aluminum prices will run strongly due to low inventories and potential squeeze risks. Zinc prices face upward pressure, and nickel prices will oscillate weakly in the short term. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, supply - side factors and weak demand lead to a bearish outlook. For lithium carbonate, weak demand and high inventory pressure the price [1]. - In the black - metal sector, the transition from peak to off - peak season, loose supply - demand, and cost factors lead to a lack of upward drivers for rebar and hot - rolled coil. Iron ore may face supply increases in June. The supply - demand of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is relatively loose, and glass and soda ash prices are under pressure due to weak demand. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to decline [1]. - In the agricultural products sector, the U.S. biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten the global oil and fat supply - demand, but the impact of crude - oil fluctuations needs to be noted. Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Sugar production in Brazil may reach a record high in the 2025/26 season, and the price may be affected by the crude - oil price. Corn prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and soybean - meal prices will show different trends for different contracts [1]. - For energy and chemical products, the Middle East geopolitical situation and the summer consumption peak may support crude oil and fuel oil prices. Asphalt prices are affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors. Shanghai rubber prices are affected by factors such as the narrowing of the spot - futures price difference and inventory changes. PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber prices are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East. Styrene prices are bearish due to factors such as increased device load [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Weakly supported by domestic fundamentals and affected by overseas disturbances, it will mainly fluctuate weakly. Hedge with options [1]. - Treasury bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but central - bank warnings restrict the upside [1]. - Gold: Supported by the escalation of the Middle East situation, with a solid medium - to - long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: May fluctuate weakly in the short term [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The market risk preference is volatile. With the opening of the export window, inventories may decline, and the price will maintain a high - level sideways movement [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventories and potential squeeze risks lead to a strong price. Alumina futures are at a discount, restricting the downside [1]. - Zinc: The refinery output is recovering, and the price faces upward pressure. Pay attention to the Middle East situation [1]. - Nickel: High nickel - ore premiums, increasing LME inventories, and medium - to - long - term oversupply pressure. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - Stainless steel: The market risk preference is volatile. With weak downstream demand and increasing inventories, the price will oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and there is supply pressure in the long term [1]. - Tin: Pressured by photovoltaic production cuts and the off - season. Pay attention to the impact of rising oil prices [1]. - Industrial silicon: Supply - side复产 and weak demand with high inventory pressure lead to a bearish outlook [1]. - Polysilicon: Rapid decline in downstream production, sufficient warehouse receipts, and insignificant supply - side cuts [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Declining ore prices, high downstream inventories, and weak purchasing [1] Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - rolled coil: In the transition from peak to off - peak season, with loose supply - demand and cost factors, there is no upward driver [1]. - Iron ore: There is an expectation that iron - water production has peaked, and there will be an increase in supply in June. Pay attention to steel - price pressure [1]. - Manganese silicon: Slightly increased short - term production, weakening demand, relatively loose supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Affected by coal costs, production decreases due to profit pressure, and demand weakens marginally [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are both weak, and the price will continue to decline weakly with the arrival of the off - season [1]. - Soda ash: Supply may be excessive due to the resumption of maintenance, weak terminal demand, and weakened cost support [1]. - Coking coal: Spot prices continue to decline, and the futures price rebounds to repair the discount. The upper limit is the warehouse - receipt cost of 780 - 800, and it can be short - sold [1]. - Coke: The cost of coking coal is decreasing, and the coke price will decline accordingly [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil and Rapeseed oil: The U.S. biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten the global oil and fat supply - demand, but beware of crude - oil fluctuations [1]. - Canola oil: Affected by biodiesel factors like palm oil, but the friendly Sino - Canadian talks may ease trade relations [1]. - Cotton: Affected by trade negotiations, weather premiums, and macro uncertainties. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and the price will oscillate weakly [1]. - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. The price may be affected by the crude - oil price through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1]. - Corn: The start of the minimum - price purchase of wheat in Anhui boosts the market. The wheat - corn price relationship needs attention, and the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - Soybean meal: MO9 will oscillate, while M11 and M01 are expected to be stronger due to import - cost support [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downside is limited. Consider a 7 - 9 reverse spread [1]. - Logs: High positions near the delivery of the main contract lead to intense capital games. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live pigs: With the recovery of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is good. The futures price is at a discount, and it will remain stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and Fuel oil: Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and the summer consumption peak [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors. The cost drags down, inventory accumulation slows down, and demand is slowly recovering [1]. - Shanghai rubber: The spot - futures price difference has narrowed, raw - material prices have declined, and inventories have decreased significantly [1]. - BR rubber: Supported by the increase in raw - material prices, it will oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - PTA: Affected by the U.S. bombing of Iran, the spot basis is strong, and there are issues with PX device maintenance and supply [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Continuing to reduce inventory, affected by the Middle East situation and polyester procurement [1]. - Short - fiber: The cost is closely related to the tense situation in the Middle East, and factories have maintenance plans [1]. - Styrene: The device load has increased, and the price is bearish [1]. - PP: Affected by maintenance and geopolitical factors, the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - PE: The maintenance support is limited, and the price will oscillate weakly [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases with the end of maintenance and new device production. Affected by geopolitical factors, the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - Calcined alumina: The spot price is strong, but the futures price has factored in the price - cut expectation. Pay attention to the alumina market [1]. - LPG: Affected by geopolitical factors, it is recommended to wait and see. The price will oscillate strongly. Consider spreads [1]

Group 1 - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Heilongjiang Province focuses on technological innovation to lead comprehensive industrial revitalization, contributing to national strategic tasks such as manned spaceflight and Mars exploration [1][2] - The province has established a unified leadership for scientific and technological work, forming a Provincial Science and Technology Committee led by key provincial leaders [1] - Heilongjiang has achieved significant breakthroughs in various technologies, including shale oil and gas exploration, which supports the Daqing Oilfield in achieving a daily oil and gas equivalent production of over 1,000 tons [1][2] Group 2 - The province has secured 101 projects under the National Natural Science Foundation's regional innovation development joint fund, with direct funding of 260 million yuan, and has undertaken a total of 3,867 projects [2] - A total of 793 technology research projects have been organized in key areas such as modern agriculture and advanced manufacturing, with project funding amounting to 1.7 billion yuan [2] - The province has supported 100 major technology achievement transformation projects, resulting in new sales revenue of 9.429 billion yuan and new tax revenue of 1.698 billion yuan [3] Group 3 - An AI platform has been established to match scientific research teams with enterprise needs, leading to the transformation of 1,434 major technological achievements and generating economic benefits of 24.266 billion yuan [3] - The province is building innovation and entrepreneurship ecosystems around universities and research institutions, with 1,021 technology-based enterprises gathered in these ecosystems [3] - High-tech achievements such as smart surgical robots and carbon fiber ski equipment are being transformed into enterprises, injecting strong momentum into local economic development [3]