Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and risks. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [4] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 46.09 in July 2025, down 6.16% from the previous month [4] - The London gold spot price increased by 0.79% compared to the previous week [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The steel PMI new orders index reached a 9-month high in July [5] - Weekly price changes included rebar down 2.90%, cement price index down 1.37%, rubber down 2.33%, coke up 3.94%, coking coal up 0.98%, and iron ore down 2.55% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tire operating rates changed by -0.57 percentage points, +0.20 percentage points, +3.0 percentage points, and -3.94 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide and flat glass prices changed by -0.77% and 0.00% respectively, with flat glass gross profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1409 CNY/ton [6] - The flat glass operating rate was 75% this week [6] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for July was 49.40%, down 0.8 percentage points [7] - Major commodity prices showed cold-rolled down 0.19%, copper down 1.43%, and aluminum down 1.49%, with corresponding gross profit changes of +12.77%, -18.19%, and -10.26% [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate was 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points [7] Subcategories - Tungsten concentrate prices reached a new high since 2011 [8] - Graphite electrode price was 18,000 CNY/ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1357.4 CNY/ton, down 10.61% [8] - Electrolytic aluminum price was 20,490 CNY/ton, down 1.49%, with estimated profit at 2926 CNY/ton (excluding tax), down 10.26% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.27 this week [9] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 80 CNY/ton [9] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 390 CNY/ton, up 20 CNY/ton [9] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in July 2025 was 47.10%, down 0.6 percentage points [10] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1232.29 points this week, down 2.30% [10] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 78.40%, up 0.40 percentage points [10] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 1.75%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being commercial vehicles at -0.51% [11] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 index was 46.36% and 64.79% respectively [11] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 index is 0.57, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is in its final year of ultra-low emission transformation, with significant progress made in reducing carbon emissions and enhancing green development [1][2][3] Group 1: Ultra-Low Emission Transformation - As of July this year, 197 steel enterprises have completed ultra-low emission transformations, with 600 million tons of crude steel capacity achieving full-process ultra-low emissions, and 350 million tons undergoing key engineering modifications, representing over 80% of the national total capacity [1] - The investment for ultra-low emission transformation per ton of steel is approximately 474.35 yuan, with an average environmental operating cost of about 218.43 yuan per ton [1] - An estimated additional investment of around 200 billion yuan is required to achieve the target of over 80% capacity completion by the end of this year [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges and Strategies - The steel industry faces structural contradictions, including excess low-end products and insufficient high-end products, indicating a need for continuous optimization of product structure and energy-saving transformations [3] - The long-process steel enterprises are the main source of carbon dioxide emissions, accounting for about 98% of total emissions in the steel production sector [4] - There are challenges in data management, carbon emission management capabilities, and balancing emission reductions with growth, necessitating a phased and organized approach to market entry and quota control [4] Group 3: Carbon Market and Future Directions - The national carbon market now includes the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, covering over 8 billion tons of emissions from approximately 3,700 key emitting units, making it the largest carbon market globally [3] - The steel industry is encouraged to actively participate in the voluntary carbon market to effectively reduce compliance costs and enhance green development momentum [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the stock performance of Sangang Minguang on August 4, with a closing price of 4.75 yuan, a decrease of 0.02 yuan or 0.42% from the previous trading day [1] - The stock opened at 4.71 yuan, reached a high of 4.82 yuan, and a low of 4.65 yuan, indicating a trading range of 3.56% throughout the day [1] - The trading volume was 290,413 hands, with a total transaction amount of 137 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.20% [1] Group 2 - Sangang Minguang operates in the steel industry, primarily engaged in steel smelting, rolling, and processing, with products including construction steel and industrial steel [1] - The company's production bases are mainly located in Fujian Province [1] - On the morning of August 4, the stock experienced a rapid rebound, with a rise of over 2% within five minutes, peaking at 4.78 yuan and a transaction amount of 21.03 million yuan [1] Group 3 - In terms of capital flow, on August 4, the net outflow of main funds was 26.93 million yuan, accounting for 0.23% of the circulating market value [1] - Over the past five trading days, the cumulative net outflow reached 32.82 million yuan, representing 0.28% of the circulating market value [1]

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows signs of seasonal weakness, but infrastructure construction is experiencing a slight recovery. The blast furnace operating rate and apparent consumption have both increased year-on-year, with a rise of +1.1 and +0.5 percentage points to 2.2% and -0.3% respectively [2][6] - The social inventory of steel has seen a rebound [2] - In the textile sector, operating rates are higher than the same period last year, while the polyester filament and automotive sectors have seen a decline in operating rates [14][20] Group 2: Cement and Construction Industry - Cement production and demand are recovering, with grinding operating rates increasing significantly by +6.0 percentage points to -0.2% year-on-year. Cement shipment rates have also improved by +0.8 percentage points to -2.2% [25][29] - The cement inventory ratio has slightly decreased by -0.5 percentage points to -0.2% [32] Group 3: Glass and Asphalt Production - Glass consumption has decreased, with production slightly rebounding but still down by -7.7% year-on-year. Apparent consumption has also fallen by -5.0 percentage points to 8.7% [37][41] - Asphalt operating rates have increased year-on-year, up by +2.5 percentage points to 8.0% [37] Group 4: Real Estate and Demand Trends - The transaction volume of commercial housing has declined, with a year-on-year decrease of -13.6 percentage points to -19.6% in 30 major cities. The largest drop is observed in third-tier cities, with a decline of -44.0 percentage points to -31.5% [49][50] - National railway and highway freight volumes have also decreased, with year-on-year declines of -0.5 percentage points to 6.5% and -0.8 percentage points to 2.8% respectively [60][64] Group 5: Export and Shipping Trends - The shipping prices continue to decline, with the CCFI composite index dropping by -2.3% week-on-week. The Southeast Asia route has seen a significant price drop of -3.9% [89][90] - The BDI average price has also decreased by -3.1% [89] Group 6: Price Trends in Agriculture and Industry - Agricultural product prices are showing divergence, with pork and fruit prices falling by -0.3% and -0.2% respectively, while vegetable and egg prices have increased by +0.6% and +3.6% [101][105] - The industrial product prices have generally declined, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index dropping by -1.4% [113][114]

Group 1 - The European Union will suspend two countermeasures against U.S. tariffs within six months based on an agreement reached with the U.S. [1] - The U.S. and EU have agreed on a trade deal that includes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S. [1] - The EU is expected to increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [1] Group 2 - The trade agreement is anticipated to provide stability to the market, according to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [1] - The agreement will maintain the current tariffs on steel and aluminum, with energy being a key component of the deal [1] - The deal is expected to have significant impacts on the automotive and agricultural sectors [1]

Market Performance - Domestic commodity market stabilized after a significant correction, with some products like coking coal and iron ore showing slight increases of 2.3% and 0.8% respectively[1] - Industrial silicon experienced a notable decline of 3.5%, while other products like glass and polysilicon saw reduced declines, generally under 2%[1] Price Trends - Following the "倒 V" market trend since July 18, the price resilience among various commodities has become evident, with some products like live pigs and industrial silicon completely offsetting previous gains[2] - Coking coal, polysilicon, and coking coal showed relatively smaller pullbacks of 26%, 44%, and 52% respectively, indicating stronger market consensus[2] Futures Structure - The long-term contracts for most commodities outperformed short-term contracts, reflecting market expectations for long-term improvements, with coking coal's long-term contract priced 3.46% higher than the short-term[2] - Cumulative excess gains since July for coking coal, glass, and soda ash relative to short-term contracts reached 9.43%, 6.38%, and 6.15% respectively[2] Inventory Insights - Steel inventory increased by 1.60% this week, while coking coal inventory decreased by 2.07%, indicating a significant reduction despite high absolute levels[3] - Float glass inventory fell by 3.9%, suggesting a healthy production and sales situation, while caustic soda inventory rose by 3.1%, indicating weaker fundamentals[3] Market Outlook - The commodity market has entered a new phase of differentiation among products, with short-term pressures but strong expectations for long-term improvements[3] - Continued monitoring of supply and demand dynamics across industries is essential for future assessments[3]

Core Points - The AMAC Black Metal Index (AMAC Steel, H30058) experienced a slight decline of 0.01%, closing at 1542.15 points with a trading volume of 9.617 billion [1] - Over the past month, the AMAC Black Metal Index has increased by 17.10%, by 16.81% over the last three months, and by 18.54% year-to-date [1] Index Composition - The AMAC Black Metal Index is composed of 10 major stocks, with Baosteel Co., Ltd. holding the largest weight at 20.04%, followed by Baotou Steel (17.81%) and Hualing Steel (7.38%) [1] - The market share of the AMAC Black Metal Index is predominantly from the Shanghai Stock Exchange at 71.04%, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 28.96% [1] Industry Classification - The AMAC Black Metal Index is entirely composed of the raw materials sector, with a 100.00% allocation [2]

随着反内卷行动扩展到医疗健康和金融服务等领域，瑞银试图了解近期反内卷行动在其各自所在行业的影响范围和潜在影响。 尽管瑞银分析师的反馈喜忧参半（总结见下图），但从股价走势以及瑞银与投资者的交流来看，市场似乎对这些行动的潜在影响仍持一定怀疑态度。 | Figure 2: Comparison across potential beneficiaries of anti-involution campaign | | --- | 1）在食品配送和汽车行业，监管机构召集了相关从业者，敦促他们整改某些促销行为，开展理性竞争； 6）在化工行业，监管机构要求提供落后产能的相关信息； 7）在医疗健康行业，监管机构表示，在药品和医疗器械的集中采购中，需要考虑其他非价格因素。总而言之，与 2014-2015 年的情况相比，当前的措施 干预性较弱、力度较小，但范围似乎更广。 股价上行概率较大 瑞银认为，实施这些举措有着重要的动机：在国内，这将提高公司盈利能力和政府税收；在国际上，其他国家一直在抵制中国的工业过剩供应。话虽如 此，这很可能是一个长期过程，其力度会有起伏，投资者很可能需要围绕这一主题进行交易。 在现阶段，瑞银认为风险仍 ...

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2025.8.4 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、铁矿石、煤焦、铁合金） 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025.8.1 | 2025.7.25 | 价格变动 | 涨跌幅 | | 2025.8.1 | 2025.7.25 | 价格变动 | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2510 | 3203 | 3356 | -153 | -4.56% | HRB400E: Φ20:汇总价格:上海 | 3360 | 3430 | -70 | -2.04% | | 热轧卷板 | HC2510 | 3401 | 3507 | -106 | -3.02% | Q235B: 5.75*1500*C: 市场价: 上海 | 3410 | 3500 | -90 | -2.57% | | 铁矿石 | 12509 | 783 | 802.5 | | - ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Bayi Steel closed at 4.02 yuan on August 4, 2025, down 0.74% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 4.69% [1] - Bayi Steel is a significant steel production enterprise in Xinjiang, involved in steel smelting, rolling, and sales, with products widely used in construction and machinery manufacturing [1] - The company has a certain market influence in the northwest region of China [1] Group 2 - On August 4, the stock price of Bayi Steel experienced notable fluctuations, with a quick rebound in the morning where the price increased over 2% within 5 minutes, followed by a rapid decline of over 2% in the next 5 minutes, indicating active market trading [1] - On the same day, the net outflow of main funds was 21.36 million yuan, accounting for 0.35% of the circulating market value, while the cumulative net inflow over the past five trading days was 118 million yuan, representing 1.91% of the circulating market value [1]