1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment is mixed across different black building materials sectors. Steel prices are oscillating, iron ore prices face downward pressure despite a small increase, coking coal and coke prices are rising, and thermal coal prices are fluctuating in a narrow range [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market oscillated upward yesterday. The rebar futures main contract closed at 3074 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3219 yuan/ton. The national steel trading volume was 52,000 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the Two Sessions approach, macro - expectations are more volatile. Building materials are in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory increases and limited upside and downside. Plate production and sales have improved, but high intermediate inventory suppresses price performance [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect oscillation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices rose slightly yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports were basically stable. The total trading volume of iron ore at major national ports was 858,000 tons, a 22.37% increase from the previous day, and the total trading volume of forward - delivery iron ore was 729,000 tons, a 6.42% increase [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the Two Sessions approach, market sentiment is boosted. Supply remains high, and the daily average pig - iron output has increased slightly. High supply and inventory continue to suppress prices, and there is short - term downward pressure [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to be cautiously bearish, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures rose significantly yesterday. For coking coal, pit - mouth prices fluctuated, and imported coal prices were firm. For coke, steel mills' profitability is average, and some northern blast furnaces will be restricted [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, the market rebounded from oversold conditions, with expectations of tightened supply during the Two Sessions and cost - side support restored. For coke, the expectation of reduced production by coking enterprises has increased, and the pressure of high - level inventory accumulation has been alleviated [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: At the production sites, supply increased with the resumption of work, and some pit - mouth prices rose while others fell. At ports, traders were more willing to sell, but actual transactions were limited. Imported coal prices were strong, providing some support [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Post - festival demand has recovered, and affected by the supply issues in the import market, domestic coal prices have continued to rise slightly. In the short term, prices are fluctuating in a narrow range [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of March 2026, the steel industry is at a critical juncture where expectations are being reshaped and reality is being verified. The short - term core contradiction in the market lies in the actual verification of peak - season demand. Prices are expected to remain in a range - bound and weakly oscillating pattern under inventory digestion pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy tone of the Two Sessions and the actual resumption of work at construction sites [2][13]. - In 2026, the steel industry has entered a stage of parallel development of stock competition and structural upgrading. The marginal improvement in the real estate sector cannot support steel demand, and manufacturing and exports have become new demand pillars. The supply side is undergoing institutional optimization rather than simple production cuts, and the cost side is being reshaped by carbon constraints and mine expansion [12]. - During the "Golden March and Silver April" period, it is difficult to see a unilateral sharp rise in the market, but with policy support and structural transformation, the downside space is also limited. The black - series products are more likely to gradually increase their center of gravity in the oscillation [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Profit - repair - driven "Inertial Recovery" - Supply side: After the Spring Festival, hot - metal production has rebounded to over 2.33 million tons, and the blast - furnace operating rate has slightly increased. The production enthusiasm of long - process enterprises has recovered after marginal profit improvement. However, this round of recovery is more of an "inertial" nature rather than a trend - based expansion. There is a significant differentiation in product structure: hot - rolled coil production remains at a high level, supported by export orders and manufacturing prosperity, while rebar production is still in a contraction range year - on - year due to weak real - estate starts and continuous losses in electric - arc furnaces [5]. - Demand side: There is an obvious "time - difference dilemma". Although Shanghai has introduced the "Seven Measures for Optimizing the Real - Estate Market", the improvement in the sales end has a natural lag in being transmitted to the construction end. The apparent consumption of rebar is still at a seasonal low, and social inventory continues to accumulate. Peak - season demand still faces challenges [5]. 2. Main Themes of the Two Sessions: Supply Optimization Expectations, Structural Transformation, and Carbon - cost Visibility - Supply - side "Anti - involution" and Enterprise Classification Management: In late 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first batch of enterprises meeting the new industry - standard conditions, which is seen as the institutional basis for a new round of supply optimization. This round emphasizes classification evaluation and differential constraints, and if the Two Sessions further strengthen this direction, the expected phased contraction of the supply side will offset high inventory [8]. - Demand - structure Shift towards "New - quality Productivity": Policies have clearly increased support for equipment renewal and technological transformation. The focus of steel demand has shifted from real - estate - driven to manufacturing - driven. Steel used in high - end equipment, new - energy vehicles, and green home appliances remains resilient, and the profitability of sheet metal is relatively dominant. The premium difference between products may become the norm [8]. - Cost Reshaping due to the Expansion of Carbon Trading: The steel industry will be substantially included in the national carbon market in 2026. The visibility of carbon - emission costs will increase the marginal cost of high - carbon - intensity enterprises and enhance the competitiveness of electric - arc - furnace short - process and green metallurgical technologies. The "cost floor" of steel prices will no longer be determined solely by iron ore but will also be constrained by carbon costs [9][11]. 3. Market Path: Direction Selection in Oscillation - In early March, the market is mainly engaged in policy gaming. Before the verification of real demand, prices are likely to remain range - bound. The real demand situation during the peak season from mid - to late March to April will determine the tone for the first half of the year. If the apparent demand for rebar recovers and inventory reaches an inflection point, combined with supply - optimization expectations, there is room for a corrective rebound in the black - series products; otherwise, a negative - feedback phenomenon may occur [12]. - In the context of the gradual repair of the credit environment, the differentiation trend among black - series products will be further strengthened. Rebar has certain bottom support under the "de - real - estate" policy framework but has limited upward driving force. The price performance of rebar is more of a valuation repair rather than a demand - driven trend. In contrast, the logic for sheet metal is clearer. Real - estate financing relaxation can indirectly drive sheet - metal demand through post - cycle links, and investment in infrastructure and manufacturing related to new - quality productivity provides medium - term support for sheet - metal products [12][13].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2026年03月04日08时22分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 周六美以对伊发动袭击以来，原油价格大幅上涨，但对黑色系商品影响有限。供需方面，上周 247家样本钢厂螺纹产量继续下降，表观需求环比回 落，总库存继续回升，五大品种总产量大幅下降，库存继续增加，表观需求处于一年中的最低。整体来看，目前市场整体仍处于供需双弱的状态 ， 产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位快速增加，预计下游需求将逐步启动，市场对 今年的需求预期相对偏弱。从技术面看，期价在低位维持震荡，显 示下方有较强支撑。由于当前估值低，下方的空间或有限。 操作建议： 维持观望，谨慎交易 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3067 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.39% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3219 | 4 | 0.12% | -3 | -0.09 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For rebar, the demand shows no improvement, the inventory has started to rise from a low level, the purchasing willingness of traders remains weak, the real estate industry is still in a downward cycle, and the price is expected to fluctuate with a bearish bias [1]. - For hot - rolled coil, both supply and demand have weakened, the inventory has continued to decrease but increased recently, export is blocked, and the price is also expected to fluctuate with a bearish bias [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Spot and Basis - Rebar: The spot price is 3190 yuan/ton, and the basis is 116, which is bullish [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price is 3240 yuan/ton, and the basis is 21, which is bullish [2]. Profit and Cost - Not provided Capacity and Inventory - Rebar: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 567.76 tons, with a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year decrease, which is neutral [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 357.37 tons, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, which is bearish [2]. Rebar Demand and Downstream - The real estate market is still weak, demand has cooled down, and there are domestic capacity - reduction plans impacting the market [1]. Hot - rolled Coil Demand and Downstream - Supply and demand have both weakened, and export is blocked [2]. Macro - Not provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Mid - term outlook: The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, the expectation of rising energy valuations is increasing, leading to a low - level upward repair of coking coal, alloys, and glass - soda ash futures prices. However, the off - season fundamentals lack highlights, with steel and iron ore inventories still under pressure, so the upward driving force for steel and iron ore prices is limited, and they will mainly operate in an oscillatory manner. Overall, it is still the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, the peak - season expectations are still cautious, the driving force for the futures price increase is limited, and there is a risk of a high - level correction after the price increase. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the fulfillment of peak - season demand [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have recovered and are at a high level, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to ease in the short term. Although there are uncertainties in the macro - environment due to the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, after the Spring Festival, the weight of fundamental pricing is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro - disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large, and iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly. The port inventory has increased, and the pressure on the inventory is still there. During the Two Sessions, some regions will implement production restrictions, which will affect the recovery rhythm of molten iron. Attention should be paid to the support strength of post - festival demand [2][7][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuation is small. The supply is gradually recovering, and it is expected to return to normal in about two weeks. The demand is at a seasonal low, and the inventory has decreased significantly during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the actual demand situation [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the long run, there is a slight growth expectation for both supply and demand of coke. In the short term, although there are disturbances, the supply - demand structure of coke will continue to be healthy. However, the cost support of coking coal has weakened, and the expectation of spot price reduction is strong. The futures price is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal. The supply may decrease slightly during the Two Sessions, the demand has rigid support, and the inventory pressure is acceptable [2][9][10] - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals of coking coal have pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. The spot price is expected to run weakly and stably, while the futures price is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation affected by capital sentiment. The supply has recovered rapidly, the import is at a high level, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market has strong supply and weak demand, the fundamental support is insufficient, there is resistance in the downward transmission of the cost end, and the upstream inventory is high. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the futures price. When the futures price rises above the cost line, the risk of correction should be guarded against. The cost is rising, the demand recovery is slow, and the inventory may further accumulate [3][14] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has weak supply and demand, the fundamental contradiction is limited but the driving force is insufficient. Continuous price increases may accelerate the resumption of production of manufacturers, leading to a marginal weakening of the supply - demand relationship. There is a risk of high - level correction when the futures valuation is quickly repaired above the cost line. The cost support is strengthening, the demand recovery is slow, and the manufacturers' willingness to resume production is increasing [3][15] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has a disturbance expectation, but the inventories of the middle and downstream are moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the demand does not improve significantly after the Lantern Festival, the high inventory will always suppress the price. The supply may decline in the long run, the downstream demand has not recovered, and the inventory pressure is large [3][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the high inventory and high supply always suppress the price [3][12] 3.5 Steel - The spot market is gradually recovering, but the overall production is at a low level. The demand is also at a low level, and the inventory is still accumulating. The fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated. Affected by the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, the macro - environment is still uncertain. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2482.90, up 1.00%; the commodity 20 index was 2847.65, up 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2364.70, up 1.43%. The steel industry chain index on the same day was 1915.51, with a daily increase of 0.33%, a 5 - day increase of 0.23%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.74%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.06% [100][102]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in industrial production, demand, and pricing, highlighting the recovery in construction and real estate transactions, as well as the mixed performance of various sectors in the economy [2][50][104]. Group 1: Industrial Production Tracking - The industrial production shows a divergence, with high furnace operation maintaining resilience while steel consumption has declined. The high furnace operating rate increased by 0.1% week-on-week and rose by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 2.3% [2] - In the petrochemical sector, the operation rate for soda ash decreased by 0.3% week-on-week and fell by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to -3.0%, while PTA's operating rate increased by 0.2% week-on-week and rose by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to -5% [14] - The construction industry saw a marginal recovery in cement production, with the grinding operation rate decreasing by 3.8% week-on-week but increasing by 3.6 percentage points year-on-year to 3.4% [26] Group 2: Demand Tracking - The real estate market showed improvement, with the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increasing year-on-year to 106.8%. Notably, second-tier cities experienced a significant recovery, with transactions rising to 137.8% year-on-year [50] - The transportation metrics related to domestic demand, such as railway freight volume and highway truck traffic, increased by 2.1 and 20.2 percentage points year-on-year to 3.1% and 26%, respectively [62] - The migration scale index rose by 36.8 percentage points year-on-year to 52.7%, indicating a strong recovery in travel activity [74] Group 3: Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices generally declined, with egg and vegetable prices dropping by 3.4% week-on-week, while fruit prices remained stable [104] - The industrial product price index decreased by 0.5% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index falling by 1.1% and the metal price index rising by 0.4% [116]

Group 1: Industrial Production Tracking - The industrial production shows a mixed performance, with a slight recovery in construction activity. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.1% week-on-week and rose by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 2.3% after the holiday [2] - Steel apparent consumption decreased by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to -6.4% compared to the week before the Spring Festival, while steel social inventory increased significantly by 9.6% [2] - In the petrochemical sector, the operating rate of soda ash decreased by 0.3% week-on-week and fell by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to -3.0%, while the PTA operating rate increased by 0.2% week-on-week and rose by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to -5% [14] - The construction industry saw a marginal recovery in cement production and demand, with the national grinding operating rate decreasing by 3.8% week-on-week but increasing by 3.6 percentage points year-on-year to 3.4% [26] Group 2: Demand Tracking - The transaction volume in the real estate market showed improvement, particularly in second-tier cities, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities increasing year-on-year to 106.8% [50] - The average transaction area in first-tier cities rose by 47.9% year-on-year, while second and third-tier cities saw even larger increases of 137.8% and 97.4% respectively [50] - Freight volume and port cargo throughput related to domestic demand both increased year-on-year, with railway freight volume rising by 2.1 percentage points to 3.1% and highway truck traffic increasing by 20.2 percentage points to 26% [62] - The nationwide migration scale index increased by 36.8 percentage points year-on-year to 52.7%, indicating a rise in travel intensity [74] Group 3: Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices generally declined, with egg and vegetable prices both decreasing by 3.4% week-on-week, while fruit prices remained stable [104] - The industrial product price index decreased by 0.5% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index falling by 1.1% and the metal price index rising by 0.4% [116]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a dynamic balance strategy that has achieved an annualized absolute return of 19.15% and a relative return of 12.37% from January 2015 to February 27, 2026, with a maximum drawdown of 10.18% [3][55] - Recommended industries for March 2026 include non-ferrous metals, electric equipment and new energy, basic chemicals, steel, telecommunications, and machinery [3][55] - The macro-driven strategy has generated an annualized excess return of 4.75% since January 2016, with a maximum drawdown of 9.51% [4][45] - The multi-strategy approach has yielded an annualized relative return of 6.23% since May 2011, with a maximum drawdown of 13.44% [5][67] - The extreme style high Beta strategy has achieved an annualized relative return of 10.05% since July 2013, with a maximum drawdown of 13.44% [5][79] Market Review - In February, the overall A-share market rose, with the small and mid-cap indices outperforming large-cap indices. The CSI 300 index had a return of 0.09%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices returned 3.44% and 3.71%, respectively [16][17] - The top five performing sectors in February were steel, building materials, machinery, coal, and defense industry, while the bottom five were media, non-bank financials, consumer services, retail, and telecommunications [16][17] Industry Configuration Dynamic Balance Strategy - The dynamic balance strategy achieved an absolute return of 3.89% in February, outperforming the benchmark with an excess return of 1.98% [3][55] - The strategy's performance since the beginning of 2026 has resulted in an absolute return of 13.83%, with an excess return of 5.39% relative to the mixed equity fund index [3][55] Macro-Driven Strategy - The macro-driven strategy recommended industries for March 2026 include oil and petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, food and beverages, telecommunications, defense industry, and banking [4][45] - The strategy achieved an absolute return of 2.43% in February, with an excess return of 0.16% [4][45] Multi-Strategy Configuration - The multi-strategy approach recommended industries for March 2026 include telecommunications, real estate, construction, banking, textiles and apparel, pharmaceuticals, basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals [5][57] - The strategy's absolute return in February was 1.48%, with an excess return of -0.83% [5][65] Extreme Style High Beta Strategy - The extreme style high Beta strategy recommended industries for March 2026 include banking, electric utilities, coal, transportation, basic chemicals, and automobiles [5][79] - The strategy achieved an absolute return of 4.27% in February, outperforming the benchmark with an excess return of 2.06% [5][79] Industry Crowding Indicators - In February, crowding indicators showed fewer triggers across industries, with coal, electric utilities, steel, basic chemicals, building materials, and electric equipment and new energy showing signs of crowding [6][83]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the closure of Qatar's LNG plant, global energy prices have strengthened, with the coking coal contract rising sharply today, and steel maintaining a volatile and moderately strong trend. However, the overall spot trading volume of steel is generally weak, and the speculative sentiment is low. The fundamentals of the steel industry continue to weaken, with high inventory, uncertain post - holiday demand recovery, and potential pressure on raw materials. After the Two Sessions, steel prices may return to fundamentals and face pressure. [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian thread steel is 3160 yuan, Beijing Jingye thread steel is 3100 yuan, Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3240 yuan, and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3140 yuan [4] Market Judgement Related Prices - Shanghai Zhongtian thread steel is 3160 yuan, Beijing Jingye thread steel is 3100 yuan, Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3240 yuan, and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3140 yuan [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to thread steel spread [6] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7] Important Information - After the Spring Festival in 2026, coal and coke enterprises have gradually resumed production, with a good capacity release trend. The proportion of enterprises with a capacity utilization rate of over 50% is 62.8%, 31.75% for 10% - 50%, and 5.45% for less than 10%. Compared with the same period last year, the industry's order pattern is balanced and operating smoothly, with 30.69% of enterprises having increased orders, 45.85% having flat orders, and 23.47% having decreased orders [8][9] - From February 23 to March 1, 2026, global shipyards received 49 new ship orders, with Chinese shipyards receiving 31, South Korean shipyards receiving 3, and shipyards in Italy, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and India also receiving relevant orders [9] Related Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including those related to the basis of thread steel and hot - rolled coil contracts (01, 05, 10 contracts), price spreads between different contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 10, 10 - 01), volume - to - thread spreads, contract disk profits, cash profits of different steel products in different regions, and cost - related charts [14][16][19]

Group 1 - The report highlights two main investment themes: cyclical price increases supported by economic recovery and the technology manufacturing sector [1] - In February, the A-share market experienced a volume contraction with small-cap and dividend stocks outperforming, while the technology sector shifted focus from AI to advanced manufacturing [8][4] - The report indicates that the semiconductor price increase trend continues, with the DXI index rising by 6.1% month-on-month and over 12 times year-on-year [2][3] Group 2 - In the upstream cyclical sector, prices for non-ferrous metals are fluctuating at high levels, while most petrochemical products are experiencing price increases [12][14] - The report notes that the cost pressure in the midstream manufacturing sector, particularly in new energy materials, is easing, but the recovery of domestic demand remains to be observed [17][2] - In the consumer sector, overall domestic demand is still weak, but there are optimistic signals in certain industries such as liquor and second-hand housing [3][11] Group 3 - The valuation comparison shows that the cyclical, manufacturing, and electronic sectors are experiencing valuation expansion, currently at historically high levels [5][6] - The report suggests that macroeconomic events and fundamental impacts will increase in March, with recommendations to focus on cyclical price increases and technology manufacturing as key investment themes [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of domestic demand and the performance of specific sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and second-hand housing [3][11]