第 5 周成交震荡，房企降杠杆有利未来高质量发展 [Table_Industry] 房地产 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 涂力磊(分析师) | 021-23185710 | tulilei@gtht.com | S0880525040101 | | | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 010-83939826 | xiehaoyu@gtht.com | S0880518010002 | | | | 谢盐(分析师) | 021-23185696 | xieyan@gtht.com | S0880525040098 | | | 本报告导读： 上周（1 月 23 日-29 日）地产成交涨跌互现。上市公司业绩逐步进入披露期，近年 来房企持续降杠杆有助于未来高质量发展。维持行业"增持"评级。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 房地产《商业不动产 REITs，资产出表再添工具》 2026.01.31 房地产《核心销售趋于均衡，投资开 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 宏观量化经济指数周报 20260201 春节错位对经济数据读数造成扰动 2026 年 02 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 经济高频数据： 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《市场短期进入结构混沌期，但大盘 指数仍然稳健》 2026-02-01 《1 月 FOMC：平安夜——2026 年 1 月 FOMC 会议点评》 2026-01-29 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数：从周度数据来看，截至 2026 年 2 月 1 日，本周 ECI 供 给指数为 50.09%，较上周回升 0.03 个百分点；ECI 需求指数为 49.86%， 较上周回升 0.02 个百分点。从分项来看，ECI 投资指数为 49.91%，较 上 ...

[Table_Title] 政策保驾护航，中长线资金入市仍是大趋势 证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 01 日 ·行业配置上，建议关注：1）高景气科技主线：如 AI 算力链、机器人、存储、储能等；2）逢低布局涨价相关周 期品种，如化工、有色等；3）受益于 AI 应用产业趋势方向，如港股互联网。 风险提示：全球经济超预期波动、政策效果不及预期、海外流动性风险，地缘政治风险等。 | 分析师：李立峰 | 分析师：张海燕 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱：lilf@hx168.com.cn | 邮箱：zhanghy5@hx168.com.cn | | SAC NO：S1120520090003 | SAC NO：S1120521040002 | 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周 A 股主要指数分化，红利指数和上证 50 涨幅居前，北证 50、中证 2000 和科创 50 指领跌。资金 面上，市场日均成交额维持在 3 万亿元附近，显示投资者风险偏好高位运行。一级行业中，石 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The latest data shows a significant decline in the area of second-hand housing contracts, with a year-on-year decrease of 10% in the most recent week [1]. - New housing contracts have also seen a year-on-year decline of 26% in the latest week, while second-hand housing contracts have decreased by 10% [3]. - The overall trend indicates that the new housing market is experiencing a more substantial contraction compared to the second-hand market, with new housing contracts down 57% and second-hand contracts down 19% since January [3]. Summary by Sections New Housing Contracts - The year-on-year decline in new housing contracts has expanded, with a decrease of 24% across sample cities [4]. - The performance of new housing contracts in first-tier cities shows a decline of 21%, while second-tier cities have seen a 27% drop [4]. - The overall new housing contract area is at a low level compared to the same period over the past five years [9][12]. Second-hand Housing Contracts - The second-hand housing market has shown a year-on-year increase of 7% in contract areas, indicating a recovery trend [4]. - First-tier cities have reported a 9% increase in second-hand housing contracts, while second-tier cities have seen an 8% increase [4]. - The second-hand housing market is currently performing better than the new housing market, with a higher year-on-year performance [14]. Market Indicators - The average number of viewings for second-hand properties in 12 sample cities has increased by 60.9% compared to December, indicating a positive shift in market activity [5][40]. - The liquidity outlook for January 2026 suggests a tightening trend, which may impact market dynamics [5][45]. - The proportion of listings with price increases has risen slightly, indicating a potential stabilization in pricing trends [5][47]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative area of land transactions in 2025 has shown a year-on-year decline of 13%, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous months [20]. - The average transaction price for land has increased by 1% year-on-year, reflecting a slight recovery in land values [20]. - The land acquisition data indicates varying performance across different city tiers, with first-tier cities experiencing a more significant decline [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, suggesting to focus on leading companies and those experiencing price increases from the bottom [2][3] Core Insights - The chemical market experienced fluctuations, with the Shenwan Chemical Index declining by 0.86%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.94%. However, price increases were noted in various products, including dyes and para-nitrochlorobenzene, driven by the cancellation of export tax rebates, which accelerated export activities [2] - The AI industry shows strong demand, positively impacting the entire supply chain. Notable performances include ASML's Q4 results, which exceeded expectations, and SK Hynix's Q4 operating profit doubling year-on-year, marking the strongest performance in history [2] - The real estate sector is stabilizing as the "three red lines" policy ends, indicating a healthier market moving forward [2][3] Summary by Sections Chemical Market Overview - The chemical market saw a mixed performance, with the Shenwan Chemical Index down 0.86% while the CSI 300 Index rose 0.08%. The textile chemical products sector led gains with a 14.33% increase [11][12] - Key price movements included a rise in disperse dyes to an average of 19 CNY/kg and reactive dyes to 23 CNY/kg, reflecting a 5.56% and 4.55% increase respectively [3][29] AI Industry Developments - The AI sector is witnessing robust growth, with major players like ByteDance and Alibaba planning to launch new AI models around the Spring Festival, and significant investments in AI and cloud computing expected to rise from 380 billion CNY to 480 billion CNY over the next three years [2][4] Real Estate Sector Changes - The end of the "three red lines" policy is expected to lead to a more stable and resilient real estate market, as risks from the previous cycle are gradually cleared [3][4] Price Trends in Key Chemical Products - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with disperse dyes and reactive dyes showing notable upward trends due to rising raw material costs and limited supply [29][30] - The report also notes that the PA66 market is experiencing upward pressure, with prices rising to 14,954 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.48% increase [33][34]

Core Viewpoint - Yuyuan Group is expected to report a net loss of approximately 4.8 billion yuan for the year 2025, primarily due to the downturn in the real estate sector, policy adjustments, and significant fluctuations in commodity prices [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is around -4.8 billion yuan, with a net profit excluding non-operating gains and losses also expected to be about -4.7 billion yuan [1] - The company is focusing on reducing its debt ratio and optimizing its financial structure while concentrating on high-potential, high-growth, and high-profit core industries [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Yuyuan Group is committed to its "Oriental Lifestyle Aesthetics" strategy, aiming for sustainable development through refined operations and enhancing product capabilities via technology and cultural empowerment [1] - The company is actively exploring new business models, including the diamond sector in jewelry, cross-industry collaborations in dining, and integrating technology into cultural experiences [2] Group 3: International Expansion - Yuyuan Group has made significant strides in international markets, with the opening of its first overseas restaurant in London and hosting a successful lantern festival in Thailand that attracted over 4 million visitors [2] - The company plans to expand its jewelry brand into Southeast Asia, starting with a new store in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and is set to open another restaurant in Bangkok [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts from Open Source Securities and Guosheng Securities are optimistic about Yuyuan Group's recovery, citing the company's focus on cultural and technological empowerment, product innovation, and overseas expansion as key growth drivers [3] - The anticipated disposal of non-core assets and the commencement of major projects are expected to positively impact the company's performance moving forward [3]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月01日 港股市场速览 优于大市 大盘风格传统行业估值拉升 股价表现：大盘风格传统行业带动市场显著上涨 本周，恒生指数+2.4%，恒生综指+1.8%。风格方面，大盘（恒生大型股+2.2%） ＞中盘（恒生中型股+0.3%）＞小盘（恒生小型股-1.2%）。 主要概念指数分化。上涨的主要有恒生高股息（+4.2%）；下跌的主要有恒 生生物科技（-2.5%）。 国信海外选股策略分化。上涨的主要有红利贵族 50（+2.8%）；下跌的主要 有自由现金流 30（-1.7%）。 16 个行业上涨，14 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：石油石化（+8.7%）、综合 （+6.3%）、建材（+6.3%）、房地产（+5.8%）、非银行金融（+5.8%）；下 跌的主要有：国防军工（-4.5%）、电力设备及新能源（-3.4%）、医药（-2.8%）、 钢铁（-2.3%）、汽车（-2.2%）。 估值水平：红利估值拉升，多数概念下降 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）+1.8%至 12.0x； 恒生综指估值+1.2%至 12.0x。 主要概念指数估值普遍下降。上升幅度较大的是恒生高股息（+4.2 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月01日 港股市场速览 优于大市 大盘风格传统行业估值拉升 股价表现：大盘风格传统行业带动市场显著上涨 本周，恒生指数+2.4%，恒生综指+1.8%。风格方面，大盘（恒生大型股+2.2%） ＞中盘（恒生中型股+0.3%）＞小盘（恒生小型股-1.2%）。 主要概念指数分化。上涨的主要有恒生高股息（+4.2%）；下跌的主要有恒 生生物科技（-2.5%）。 国信海外选股策略分化。上涨的主要有红利贵族 50（+2.8%）；下跌的主要 有自由现金流 30（-1.7%）。 16 个行业上涨，14 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：石油石化（+8.7%）、综合 （+6.3%）、建材（+6.3%）、房地产（+5.8%）、非银行金融（+5.8%）；下 跌的主要有：国防军工（-4.5%）、电力设备及新能源（-3.4%）、医药（-2.8%）、 钢铁（-2.3%）、汽车（-2.2%）。 估值水平：红利估值拉升，多数概念下降 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）+1.8%至 12.0x； 恒生综指估值+1.2%至 12.0x。 主要概念指数估值普遍下降。上升幅度较大的是恒生高股息（+4.2 ...

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In January, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down from 50.1% in December[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4%, compared to 50.2% in the previous month[2] - The decline in PMI is attributed to the upcoming Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous month[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-tech and midstream equipment manufacturing PMIs remain above the threshold at 52.0% and 50.1% respectively, despite slight declines[2] - Downstream consumer goods manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3%, indicating a significant decrease of 2.1 percentage points[2] - The construction PMI fell to 48.8%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points, reflecting seasonal impacts and a high base from the previous month[2] Group 3: Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points, while the factory price index reached 50.6%, up by 1.7 percentage points[2] - This marks the first time in 20 months that the factory price index has risen above the critical point, suggesting a potential narrowing of PPI declines[2] Group 4: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The production index decreased to 50.6%, down by 1.1 percentage points, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, down by 1.6 percentage points[2] - The new export orders index also declined to 47.8%, indicating a slowdown in export momentum compared to the previous month[2] Group 5: Policy and Economic Outlook - The first batch of "two new" funds has been allocated, and a coordinated fiscal and financial policy to boost domestic demand has been deployed[2] - Continued attention is needed on marginal changes in investment, consumer performance during the Spring Festival, and new policies from the upcoming Two Sessions[2]

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In January, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down from 50.1% in December[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4%, compared to 50.2% in the previous month[2] - The decline in PMI is attributed to the upcoming Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous month[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-tech and midstream equipment manufacturing PMIs remain above the threshold at 52.0% and 50.1% respectively, despite slight declines[2] - Downstream consumer goods manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3%, indicating a significant decrease of 2.1 percentage points[2] - The construction PMI fell to 48.8%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points, reflecting seasonal impacts and a high base from the previous month[2] Group 3: Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points, while the factory price index reached 50.6%, up by 1.7 percentage points[2] - This marks the first time in 20 months that the factory price index has risen above the critical point, suggesting a potential narrowing of PPI declines[2] Group 4: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The production index decreased to 50.6%, down by 1.1 percentage points, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, a drop of 1.6 percentage points[2] - New export orders also declined to 47.8%, indicating a slowdown in external demand[2] Group 5: Policy and Economic Outlook - The first batch of "two new" funds has been allocated, and a coordinated fiscal and financial policy to boost domestic demand has been deployed[2] - Continued monitoring of investment trends, consumer performance during the Spring Festival, and policy developments during the Two Sessions is advised[2]