Core Viewpoint - The demand issue has become the most decisive factor affecting the sustained and stable growth of China's economy, with expanding domestic demand ranking first in economic work for two consecutive years [2][3]. Group 1: Demand Issues - The main contradiction in China's economic operation has gradually shifted from the supply side to the demand side, indicating that resolving demand issues is crucial for achieving stable and sustainable economic growth [3]. - Despite various external shocks, China's economy has shown resilience, with major macroeconomic indicators remaining stable, laying a good foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [2][3]. Group 2: Consumption Demand - The insufficient consumption demand in China is attributed to both short-term market fluctuations and deeper structural issues, necessitating both immediate stimulus policies and long-term solutions [4]. - Structural reasons for low consumption rates include a long-term low consumption rate among residents, estimated to be 10-20% below the international average, indicating significant potential for expanding domestic demand [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Demand - Investment demand remains significant and should be supported through institutional and policy innovations, emphasizing that effective investment is still crucial for economic growth [8]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests that effective investment should focus on new urban construction models and enhancing rural infrastructure, with a notable emphasis on revitalizing idle rural land and improving the investment environment for private and foreign investments [8].

生娃真的"奖房子"了！近日，湖北竹山县奖励生育的政策引发关注。 因此，舆论关注的生娃"奖房子"的另一面，或许也能带动当地房地产去库存，进而降低农业转移人口市 民化的门槛。这种模式对人口基数小、城镇化需求迫切的中小城市，也不无借鉴意义。 从各地实践看，当前生育补贴的形式涵盖现金补贴、托育券、税收减免、购房优惠等，此次生娃直 接"奖房子"，等于在以实物鼓励生育方面又进了一步。这对地方政府而言，确实是一件需要拿出真金白 银的事情，而且政策一旦定下，就须形成可持续的投入保障机制。但鼓励生育从来不是"花钱打水漂"。 无论是现金补贴，还是购房补贴，受惠家庭要么会把钱花在养育孩子的日常支出里，不仅惠及新生儿， 还能带动婴幼儿相关产业发展；要么会用于购房，从而带动房地产去库存，对稳定楼市也有积极意义。 事实上，类似这种"生育刺激消费—消费拉动经济—经济反哺生育"的正向循环，在一些地方已经实现。 比如，湖北天门市通过生育补贴与购房补贴叠加，不仅带动房地产投资增速连续14个月位居湖北省第 一，更实现了财政收入13.7%的增长。 12月25日，竹山县卫生健康局工作人员告诉纵览新闻，当地的确有该政策，具体为二孩奖补25平方米、 三孩 ...

推广 新西兰房价连涨三月，买房更难了？ 根据新西兰房地产协会（REINZ）的最新数据，11月份全国房价的下四分位数（lower quartile price）——即代表市场最低端25%房价的水平——从10月 份的60万纽币上涨至62万纽币，单月上涨了2万纽币，涨幅为3.3%。 这已经是该数据连续第三个月录得上涨。自今年8月以来，全国低端市场的房价已从58万纽币上涨至62万纽币，短短三个月内累计上涨了4万纽币，涨幅高 达6.9%。 与此同时，市场上也并非全是坏消息。主流银行的两年期固定抵押贷款平均利率在11月从4.51%微降至4.49%。然而，这看似利好的降息，在房价上涨的 巨大压力面前，显得微不足道。 那么，房价上涨和利率下降这两股力量的博弈，最终给首次购房者带来了什么呢？答案是：情况变得更糟了。 根据最新测算，对于一个支付10%首付的首次购房者来说，购买一套价格为下四分位数的房产，其每周的抵押贷款还款额将从8月份的720纽币增加到11月 份的746纽币。如果支付20%的首付，周还款额也从560纽币增加到了579纽币。 对于新西兰成千上万的首次购房者来说，11月的房地产市场数据传递了一个令人沮丧的信号：买房似 ...

以下文章来源于真叫卢俊 ，作者真叫卢俊 真叫卢俊 . 认认真真聊地产，实实在在谈买房。 本文来自微信公众号： 真叫卢俊 ，作者：真叫卢俊 这已经快成为一个哲学问题了 所以也允许我笼统的回答一下吧 从目前的趋势来看确实如此 这是一个好事情 加上11月的2.2万套，上海已经连续两个月成交破两万 而且是在年底 01 坊间一直有个数据信号，关于12月上海楼市成交又破2万套，大概会站上2.2万套的数据 这样的成绩可喜可贺 其实今年一整年的上海二手房数据都很好，月均成交能够达到2万套 这在大家意识中的淡市周期里这是一个了不起的结果 放眼全国，这是唯一 02 但是为什么很多人体感上感觉不到 核心逻辑在于 现在的主力成交不是我们身边的大多数 不知道各位有没有意识到 最近咱们手机里的中介兄弟很多的微信名都加了一个后缀（亲属过户代办） 包括不少门店门头都开始醒目的写着高品质的亲属过户代办只要2000 上海的手拉手交易一直都存在，而且占比一直庞大，中介为什么突然看上了这个蛋糕 简单来说，也是迫于无奈 第一，各家中介为了做市占率 其他的二手房交易做不上去，用这个做点市占率提升下数据规模 第二，不少朋友过户完之后可能就是再买房，也是一 ...

有人预测：2026年开始，手里有两套房的家庭，可能面临4个大麻烦 前几年，很多人心里都有一条"财富公式"：只要手里有两套房，一套自己住，一套租出去或者将来卖 掉，基本就躺赢了。 那时候亲戚朋友一聊天，话题离不开： "你家几套了？""在哪个区又买了一套？" "房子比啥都靠谱，存钱不如买房。" 但这两年，风向悄悄变了。越来越多家庭发现，手里的房子，从"财富仓库"变成了"烫手山芋"： 价格不涨反跌，挂出去没人看，物业费和房贷照样得交，租不出去就算了，还得担心未来会不会收什么 房产税。 有分析就预测：如果照着现在的趋势走下去，到2026年开始，手里有两套房的家庭，会明显感受到4个 大麻烦。如果你家也是"两套房家庭"，这几个问题一定要提前想清楚，不然可能真会被打个措手不及。 一、房子不一定还能"躺着增值"，有些甚至还在缩水 过去二十多年，楼市走了一个超级大牛市。很多人自然而然觉得：房价就是"永远涨"。但从最近两年的 数据来看，这个错觉已经被打破得很彻底了： 2025年，全国70个大中城市二手房价格指数，已经是连续多月全部下跌 ； 对两套房家庭来说，最尴尬的是什么？ 往往： 第一套是自住的，位置、配套还凑合； 第二套多半 ...

"从家到苏州北站不到20分钟，坐高铁半小时就能到上海，比在上海挤地铁舒服多了！"钱女士作为 在相城置业的代表，分享着她上海工作、相城居住的跨城生活体验。为了进一步推动沪苏两地在住房、 旅游、文化和商贸消费等领域的交流与合作，昨天（12月26日），2025"沪相联"双城冬季消费嘉年华活 动在上海正大乐城（徐汇店）拉开帷幕。来自沪苏两地房地产、美食、旅游等相关行业的商会协会代 表、企业代表参加活动。 此次双城冬季消费嘉年华活动聚焦汽车、商综、家居、文旅、住餐等重点领域，联动推出各类特色 主题促消费活动，聚力打造特色消费新业态、新模式、新场景，进一步跨越地理界限，为两地市民打造 更加普惠便捷、乐享优品的消费新体验。 市集区域，不少上海市民将相城产品带回家。"没想到草莓酒这么受欢迎，准备的货全卖完了！"苏 州御亭现代农业产业园发展有限公司副总经理林亚萍笑着说，此次带来的大米、油面筋、水果胡萝卜等 特产销量喜人。 活动现场还进行了相城区冬季文旅资源推介。相城区依托丰富的文旅资源、优质的商业配套与领先 的数字人民币试点基础，创新推出"相城数智文旅"硬钱包并进行发布。手持硬钱包，不仅能够享受相城 区文旅、餐饮、住宿、娱乐的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Beijing's real estate market is experiencing a significant policy adjustment aimed at stimulating consumption and addressing housing needs, particularly for non-local residents and families with multiple children [3][5][42]. Policy Adjustments - The new policy, effective immediately, focuses on key areas such as purchase restrictions, credit, and housing provident fund adjustments [3][5]. - The requirement for non-local families to purchase homes within the Fifth Ring has been reduced from three years of social security or tax payments to two years, and outside the Fifth Ring, it has been further relaxed to one year [7][9]. - Families with two or more children are now allowed to purchase an additional property within the Fifth Ring, addressing their housing needs [10][12]. Financial Implications - Financial institutions will no longer differentiate between first and second homes, implementing a unified mortgage interest rate, which is currently around 3.2% [14]. - The minimum down payment for second homes using the housing provident fund has been reduced from 30% to 25%, easing the financial burden on homebuyers [14][16]. Market Dynamics - The adjustment in land auction processes aims to lower the barriers for companies to acquire land, potentially increasing new housing supply [16]. - Compared to other cities, Beijing's policy changes are not the most aggressive, but they serve as a significant signal for national market trends [20][22]. Broader Context - The adjustments reflect a broader trend of easing restrictions in major cities, with other cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen already implementing more lenient policies [20][26]. - The policy changes are designed to balance the local market with surrounding areas, avoiding excessive pressure on neighboring cities [28]. Future Outlook - The overall impact of these policy changes on the housing market remains uncertain, as many potential buyers are still hesitant due to concerns about falling prices and income stability [30][32]. - The long-term goal of these adjustments is to stabilize housing prices and ensure that the real estate market serves the public's housing needs effectively [40][42].

文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 侯倩楠 报告正文 （一）中财办解读 2025 年中央经济工作会议精神 中央财办有关负责同志12月16日接受中央主要媒体采访，围绕宏观政策、提振消费、扩大投资、全国统 一大市场建设、高质量充分就业等主题深入解读中央经济工作会议精神。财政政策方面：政策力度上，保持 必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量；政策质效上，提高精准性和有效性；实施时机上，主动靠前发 力。货币政策方面：把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量；加力支持扩大内需、科 技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 | 图表 18: 中财办同志解读 2025年中央经济工作会议精研 | | | --- | --- | | 时间 主题 | 解读内容 | | | 展望明年，世界经济有望延续温和增长态势，但变数较多。从国内看，我们面临的困难挑战不少，但经济基础稳、优势多、和性强、潜 | | 经济形势 | 能大等长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变...投资和消费增速明年有望恢复，产业转型升级加快，科技和产业创新进入成果集中爆发 | | | 阶段,我国经济发展前景是十分光明的。 | | | 政策力度上，保持必要的财 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of monitoring the real estate market and financial conditions, aiming to ensure stable and healthy development in the sector through various financial policies [1] Group 1: Financial Policies - The PBOC will continue to implement financial policies such as re-loans for affordable housing to support the real estate market [1] - There is a focus on enhancing macro-prudential management of real estate finance to mitigate risks [1] Group 2: Market Stability - The report highlights the need for a steady and orderly improvement of the foundational credit system in real estate [1] - The PBOC aims to promote a new model for real estate development, contributing to the overall stability of the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators in November show a divergence characterized by "strong production but weak demand, strong external demand but weak internal demand," indicating significant short-term downward pressure on the economy. Industrial production and export resilience are supported by ongoing industrial upgrades, while consumption growth is slowing, and investment continues to decline, highlighting insufficient domestic demand [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Dynamics - The economic indicators reflect a need for policy intervention to stabilize domestic demand as consumption growth slows and investment remains at low levels [3]. - Industrial production remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 6.0% from January to November, slightly above last year's growth rate [4]. - The service sector shows signs of slowing down, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% from January to November, indicating pressure from real estate and travel-related sectors [5]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year, reflecting increased pressure on consumption [8]. - The decline in consumption is notably influenced by the automotive sector and the "old-for-new" policy, which have both turned negative [8]. - Despite the overall slowdown, consumption among low- and middle-income groups remains stable, with service retail growth slightly improving [8]. Group 3: Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.7% year-on-year from January to November, with a notable decline in real estate investment [12]. - Manufacturing investment shows initial signs of stabilization, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9% from January to November, indicating a potential recovery [14]. - Infrastructure investment remains steady, supported by new policy financial tools and fiscal funding, although traditional sectors face ongoing challenges [14]. Group 4: Export Performance - November exports saw a significant year-on-year increase of 5.9%, driven by low base effects and improved export volumes [18]. - Exports to the EU rebounded significantly, while exports to the US continued to decline due to previous import surges [18]. - The overall export resilience is supported by improvements in various product categories, including home appliances and textiles [18]. Group 5: Inflation Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, supported by low base effects and rising food prices [22]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month increase, indicating a mixed inflationary environment [22]. - Future inflation is expected to continue rising, influenced by domestic policies aimed at expanding demand [24]. Group 6: Financing Conditions - Social financing data in November showed a year-on-year increase of 160 billion yuan, indicating marginal improvements in financing demand driven by policy tools [28]. - However, credit growth remains weak, with new loans significantly lower than previous periods, reflecting ongoing challenges in consumer and housing market confidence [28][29]. - The M1 and M2 money supply growth rates continued to decline, indicating underlying weaknesses in the economy [29].