Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: January 19, 2026 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC ID: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC ID: S1340523120001) [2] Core Views - High - frequency economic data focuses: production end shows a differentiated heat, with the decline in the operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, and PTA, and the increase in the operating rates of asphalt, PX, and tires; the floor area of commercial housing transactions continues to decline while the land supply area slightly increases; price trends are also differentiated, with slight increases in the prices of crude oil, zinc, and rebar, and copper prices rising and then falling; the overall price of agricultural products continues to decline, but the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits all increase. In the short term, pay attention to the implementation of fiscal and monetary coordination policies [3][32] Section Summaries Production - Steel: The utilization rate of coke oven capacity decreased by 0.14 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.47 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 0.74 tons in the week of January 16. The inventory also decreased by 5.27 tons [9] - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate continued to rise by 1.8 pct from a low level in the week of January 14 [9] - Chemical Industry: The PX operating rate increased by 1.25 pct, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.65 pct on January 15 [9] - Automobile Tires: The operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 4.91 pct, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 7.55 pct in the week of January 15 [10] Demand - Real Estate: In the week of January 11, the floor area of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 107.21 square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased by 39.32 square meters, and the premium rate of residential land transactions increased by 0.62 pct [13] - Movie Box Office: It decreased by 711 million yuan in the week of January 11 [13] - Automobile: In the week of January 11, the average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 92,800 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales decreased by 175,200 vehicles [17] - Shipping Freight Rates: In the week of January 16, the SCFI index decreased by 4.45%, the CCFI index increased by 1.25%, and the BDI index decreased by 7.17% and has been falling rapidly since the peak in early December last year [20] Prices - Energy: The Brent crude oil price rose by 1.25% to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, while the coking coal futures price decreased by 0.34% to 1,184 yuan per ton [22] - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 1.5%, - 0.06%, and + 1.76% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price rose by 0.86% on January 16 [22] - Agricultural Products: The overall price continued to decline, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices decreasing by 0.37%. However, the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits increased by 0.56%, 3.31%, 0.18%, and 1.91% respectively compared with the previous week on January 16 [25] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: In Beijing and Shanghai, the seven - day moving average of subway passenger volume decreased by 484,700 and 287,100 person - times respectively on January 16 [28] - Flight Operations: On January 17, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight operations increased by 405.29 flights, domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) increased by 1.14 flights, and international flights decreased by 18.86 flights [30] - Urban Traffic: On January 17, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 0.03 [30]

摘要：【图】2025年8月海南省柴油产量统计分析 2025年8月柴油产量统计： 柴油产量：24.5 万吨 同比增长：-1.6% 增速较上一年同期变化：低1.8个百分点 据统计，2025年8月海南省规模以上工业企业柴油产量与上年同期相比下降了1.6%，达24.5万吨，增速 较上一年同期低1.8个百分点，增速较同期全国低6.2个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业柴油产量 1705.8万吨的比重为1.4%。 详见下图： 图2：海南省柴油产量分月（累计值）统计图 图1：海南省柴油产量分月（当月值）统计图 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 2025年1-8月柴油产量统计： 柴油产量：208.4 万吨 同比增长：25.3% 增速较上一年同期变化：高46.2个百分点 据统计，2025年1－8月，海南省规模以上工业企业柴油产量与上年同期相比增长了25.3%，达208.4万 吨，增速较上一年同期高46.2个百分点，增速较同期全国高28.3个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业 柴油产量12961.9万吨的比重为1.6%。详见下图： 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in pure benzene prices is driven by three main factors: the anticipated end of maintenance for styrene units, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting crude oil prices, and price adjustments by Sinopec to support benzene prices [6][9][10]. Group 1: Reasons for Price Increase - The first reason for the rise in pure benzene prices is the expected end of maintenance for two styrene units, which, combined with a high BZ-SM price spread, has led to increased buying interest in pure benzene [7]. - The second factor is the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed up crude oil prices, thereby providing a geographical premium to pure benzene [9]. - The third reason is Sinopec's two price hikes within the week to support benzene prices [10]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - The current fundamentals for pure benzene are not optimistic, with East China port inventories reaching 324,000 tons, surpassing historical highs. This inventory build-up has been ongoing since mid-October 2025, indicating a significant surplus [11]. - China's imports of pure benzene remain high, with October imports at 496,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and November imports at 459,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.93% [11]. - Downstream demand has been weak, particularly for styrene, which has seen a drop in operating rates from 76.54% to around 66.60% due to maintenance, while the second-largest downstream product, caprolactam, has also seen a decline in operating rates from 91% to 72% due to low profits [12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Supply of pure benzene is expected to remain stable before the holiday, with maintenance primarily concentrated in late Q1 and Q2, leading to a gradual decrease in supply post-holiday [16]. - Demand may see a short-term rebound as styrene units are expected to resume operations, and the profitability of styrene suggests that planned maintenance may end on schedule or be completed early [16]. - The overall outlook indicates that while pure benzene inventories are currently tight, the potential return of downstream capacity could improve the weak market conditions, with a focus on changes in import volumes [16].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current trends in the chemical industry, focusing on price movements, supply and demand dynamics, and investment opportunities in undervalued leading companies amid a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and changing market conditions [1][4][8]. Industry Dynamics - In the week of January 12-18, 49 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 20 experienced declines, and 31 remained stable. The average monthly price of 49% of products rose compared to the previous month [3]. - The average price of WTI crude oil futures increased by 0.54% to $59.44 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose by 0.66% to $63.76 per barrel during the same week [4]. - As of January 9, U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.753 million barrels per day, a decrease of 58,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 272,000 barrels year-on-year. Total U.S. oil demand was 21.009 million barrels per day, up by 178,200 barrels from the previous week [4]. Price Movements - The price of butadiene rose by 4.04% to 9,663 yuan per ton as of January 18, with a month-on-month increase of 25.98% but a year-on-year decrease of 20.8%. The production of butadiene was 109,300 tons, down 2.85% from the previous week [5]. - Epoxy propane prices increased by 8.84% to 8,620 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year rise of 9.88%. The market operating rate was 65.38%, reflecting a 1.51% increase from the previous week [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - As of January 18, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the SW basic chemical sector is 14.68, at the 59.64% historical percentile, while the price-to-book ratio is 1.54, at the 40.20% historical percentile. The SW oil and petrochemical sector has a TTM P/E ratio of 13.44, at the 39.81% historical percentile [8]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on undervalued leading companies, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the growing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials amid rising prices [2][8]. - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, with a focus on sectors like semiconductor materials, OLED materials, and new energy materials [8][9].

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strength, with the Chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a price increase of 2.73% as of the latest update [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector include Haohua Technology, which reached the daily limit, and Junzheng Group, which surged over 9%, along with other notable gains from companies like Luxi Chemical and Huafeng Chemical [1][2] - Since 2025, the Chemical ETF has shown a cumulative increase of 47.53%, significantly outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (22.38%) and the CSI 300 Index (20.25%) [1][3] Group 2 - The chemical industry has seen negative growth in capital expenditure since 2024, but the "anti-involution" trend and the clearing of outdated overseas capacities are expected to lead to a contraction in supply [4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, which is anticipated to drive growth in chemical product demand, especially with the onset of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle [4] - A potential turning point for the chemical industry is expected in 2026, with a shift from valuation recovery to earnings growth, referred to as the "Davis Double Play" [4] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks, including Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co., allowing investors to capitalize on strong investment opportunities [5] - The ETF also includes exposure to various sub-sectors such as phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, fluorochemicals, and others, providing a comprehensive investment approach within the chemical sector [5] - The fund does not charge a sales service fee, with specific subscription and redemption fee structures outlined for investors [5][6]

（来源：中化新网） 此次吊装的EO反应器外径近9.3米、单台净重1540吨，吊装重量达1756吨，内含超3.2万根精密换热管， 是目前全球直径最大、单体最重的EO反应器，也是中沙古雷乙烯项目乙烯深加工环节的关键设备。吊 装过程采用4000吨级履带吊与1350吨级履带吊双机精准协同，通过转体、提升、直立等一系列高难度动 作，平稳将这两台"巨无霸"安装就位。 随着所有大型关键设备安装就位，中沙古雷乙烯项目总体建设进度超93%，预计将于2026年建成投产。 该项目建成投产后，对于降低我国高端化工品对外依存度、保障能源和产业供应链安全，推动古雷石化 基地加快建成世界一流高端智慧绿色石化基地都具有重要意义。 福海创：抢开局答好"第一卷" 从数字化升级到"巨无霸"设备就位，从战略布局到技术攻坚，2026年伊始，福建能源石化集团旗下福建 中沙、福海创、东南电化等企业齐头并进，以一系列关键突破拉开"十五五"发展序幕。无论是服务"一 带一路"的重大石化项目，还是契合节能降碳战略的技术革新，均彰显了福建省属国企的责任担当与核 心竞争力，为保障能源供应链安全、推动产业高质量发展注入强劲动能。 福建中沙：快行动跑好"第一棒" 新年刚 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term supply in the Middle East is tight, the domestic PDH operation rate remains high, and the demand supports the market. The domestic port inventory is decreasing. Recently, the EIA C3 inventory has turned to decline, the domestic civil LPG price has risen, and with the increase in risk premium and contract price, the PG price still shows a wide - range volatile and upward trend [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Energy Product Price Monitoring - Various energy products have different price changes. For example, the current price of LPG is 4137 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.27%, a weekly decline of 1.99%, a monthly increase of 0.93%, and an annual decline of 8.03% [3]. 3.2 LPG Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commercial volume was about 518,700 tons (a 0.12% increase). Among them, the civil LPG commercial volume was 216,500 tons (a 0.14% decrease), the industrial LPG was 189,300 tons (a 0.11% decrease), and the ether - after C4 was 167,100 tons (a 0.12% decrease). The LPG arrival volume last week was 540,000 tons (a 2.08% increase). In Xinjiang, enterprise out - put increased, while in Shandong, some enterprises reduced device loads or used resources internally [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - In winter, the heating demand remains, and the LPG combustion demand is gradually improving, reaching a relatively high level. PDH devices are operating at a high load, but the device profit loss is intensifying. The propane purchase demand of port chemical enterprises is relatively rigid, but there are news of device reduction, and the expected operating rate will gradually decline, and the propane chemical demand will fall. MTBE profit is in loss, the overseas olefin blending oil demand slows down, the domestic export window closes, and most orders have been executed, which restricts the civil LPG price trend [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was 156,700 tons (a 1.20% decrease), and the port inventory was 2,027,800 tons (a 4.89% decrease). The low - supply situation of refineries continues, the market trading atmosphere is mild, and the shipment of manufacturers in many places is smooth, so the storage capacity rate continues to decline. The port arrival volume has a slight increase but is still at a low level, the import resources are insufficiently replenished, and the inventory still shows a downward trend [4]. 3.2.4 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis is 288.80 yuan/ton in East China, 763.60 yuan/ton in South China, and 196.60 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume is 5977 lots, a decrease of 36 lots, and the lowest deliverable area is Shandong [4]. 3.2.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation are [not fully provided in the text]. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong are also [not fully provided in the text] [4]. 3.2.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio is [not fully provided in the text] (a 3.35% decrease), and the PG secondary - to - primary month spread is - 242 yuan/ton (a 26.04% increase). In the fourth quarter, the LPG price is firm, the crude oil shows a bearish trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread has a weakening trend [4]. 3.2.7 Other Factors - China's CPI year - on - year growth rate in December 2025 reached the fastest in the past three years; the US ADP employment data in December showed weak labor demand. Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel Group have implemented a restructuring. Trump's remarks have led to repeated fermentations of risk events in the US - Venezuela, Middle East, and Russia - Ukraine regions, greatly increasing the volatility of crude oil prices and driving up the price fluctuations of oil - chemical products [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to PG2 - 3 positive arbitrage, PG3 - 4 reverse arbitrage, long SC and short PG, long PP and short PG [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint There is no clear core viewpoint presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1. Basis and Spread - The daily change of Shandong basis (+80) (non - Jingbo) is 11, and the weekly change is 0. The value on 1/15 is -7 [4][12]. - The daily change of East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) is 1, and the weekly change is -10. The value on 1/15 is 1 [4][12]. - The daily change of South China basis (Foshan warehouse) is 1, and the weekly change is -10. The value on 1/15 is -37 [4][12]. - The daily change of 01 - 03 is 1, and the weekly change is -11. The value on 1/15 is -68 [4][12]. - The daily change of 02 - 03 is -6, and the weekly change is -6. The value on 1/15 is -21 [4][12]. - The daily change of 03 - 06 is -1, and the weekly change is -2. The value on 1/15 is -7 [4][12]. 3.2. BU Main Contract (02) - The daily change of the BU main contract (02) price is -1, and the weekly change is 10. The price on 1/15 is 3167 [4][12]. - The daily change of trading volume is -59540, and the weekly change is -95562. The trading volume on 1/15 is 240295 [4][12]. - The daily change of open interest is -3970, and the weekly change is -33549. The open interest on 1/15 is 427132 [4][12]. - The daily change of the contract is 1270, and the weekly change is 750. The contract value on 1/15 is 16910 [4][12]. 3.3. Price of Relevant Entities - The price of Brent crude oil on 12/17 is 59.7, on 1/12 is 63.3, and on 1/14 is 66.5 [4][12]. - The price of Jingbo on 12/17 is 2950, on 1/12 is 3110, and on 1/15 is 3130, with a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 20 [4][12]. - The price of Shandong (non - Jingbo) on 12/17 is 2830, on 1/12 is 3070, and on 1/15 is 3080, with a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 10 [4][12]. - The price of Zhenjiang warehouse remains 3170 from 1/12 to 1/15, with no daily or weekly change [4][12]. - The price of Foshan warehouse remains 3130 from 1/12 to 1/15, with no daily or weekly change [4][12]. 3.4. Profit - The asphalt Maru profit on 12/17 is 405, on 1/12 is 409, and on 1/13 is 310, and on 1/14 is 279 [4][12].

"改革不是简单简化流程，而是在严守安全底线的前提下，实现监管效能的提升。"杭州萧山机场海关监 管一科科长许琰丹介绍，在杭州海关的统筹指导下，杭州萧山机场海关按"一品一策""一企一策"开展全 流程调研，核查企业质量管控体系与安全生产台账，实地评估航煤输送、存储风险，梳理申报节点并形 成具有针对性的监管方案。同时，海关组织开展多轮实操培训，指导企业熟练掌握电子申报流程、精准 核对检验标准，把政策红利转化为企业的实操能力。 相较于传统模式，"分运集检"模式实现了多种突破。该模式由组货地海关统一受理申报、集中开展检 验，将以往"多次分散监管"升级为"一次集中办结"，流程时间缩短40%以上；实现统一取样送检，从源 头精准把控油品质量；在单证流转环节全面推行电子化快速签发，提升通关便利度；更让企业无需跨关 奔波，告别"两头跑"，降低人力时间成本。 据统计，自2025年9月该模式落地以来，杭州萧山机场海关以"分运集检"模式监管出口航煤20批、13.23 万吨、货值6.83亿元，为企业节省综合成本超百万元，为航空煤油出口注入了强劲动能。 商报讯（记者 汤佳烨 通讯员 周雨亮）"13100吨航煤，申报到通关仅用5天，以前至少要 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously chase up [3] - Urea: Cautiously chase up [4] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market of energy and chemical products is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand relationship, and cost. Most products face downward pressure due to factors like supply overhang, seasonal weak demand, or geopolitical easing [1][3][7]. - Some products show a game between weak reality and strong expectation, such as methanol, where the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, but there are expectations for future changes [3]. - For fertilizers like urea, although there are some positive factors like export and spring fertilization expectations, the downstream demand in the festival season is weakening, and the supply pressure is rising [4]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On January 16, WTI rose 0.44%, Brent rose 0.58%, and SC fell 2.81%. As of January 9, US crude oil inventory increased by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million barrels [10][11]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased but remains uncertain. There is a supply surplus in the off - season, with increasing global crude oil inventory and inventory of US crude oil and refined products. OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle [1][12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production to lower prices, and the oil price is in a low - price range. Pay attention to non - OPEC+ production changes. In the short - term, there is a rebound, but it is under pressure in the medium - and long - term. Focus on the range of SC [430 - 445] [14]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 16, the PG main contract closed at 4,144 yuan/ton, down 2.36% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed to varying degrees [16][17]. - **Core Logic**: It is mainly anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is under pressure in the long - term. The supply and demand are relatively stable, with downstream chemical demand showing resilience. As of January 16, the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 36 lots [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to continue to decline. In the short - term, the cost - end oil price is uncertain, and the fundamentals are bearish. Focus on the range of PG [4,100 - 4,200] [19]. L - **Market Performance**: The L05 contract price and related data changed. The L05 basis was 0 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 35 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Core Logic**: The upstream and mid - stream are destocking, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly following the cost in the short - term. In 2025, from January to November, Iran accounted for 8.7% of China's imports. The shutdown ratio increased to 14%, and production is expected to increase slightly [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of L [6,650 - 6,800] [23]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 contract price and related data changed. The PP05 basis was - 117 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 43 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Core Logic**: The warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and the supply is slightly increasing. It will fluctuate weakly following the cost in the short - term. The supply and demand are weak, and the demand is in the off - season in January. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of PP [6,450 - 6,600] [27]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract price and related data changed. The V05 basis was - 218 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 124 yuan/ton [29][30]. - **Core Logic**: The social inventory is increasing at a high level. Although there is an expectation of rush - exporting in the short - term, the long - term supply and demand are expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse. The domestic operation rate has increased to 80%, and the internal and external demand is in the seasonal off - season [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of V [4,700 - 4,900] [31]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract price and related data changed. The TA05 basis was - 58 yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was 44 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee was 401.6 yuan/ton [32]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply - side devices are under planned maintenance with a relatively high intensity. The downstream demand is seasonally weak. The cost - end PX supply and demand are in a weak balance. There is a slight inventory accumulation from January to February, but the expectation is positive from the perspective of production and demand [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term driving force is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for TA05. Focus on the range of TA05 [5,020 - 5,120] [34]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract price and related data changed. The EG05 basis was - 101 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 104 yuan/ton [35]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation is relatively low. The domestic device load has increased. The downstream demand is seasonally weak. The port inventory is rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation from January to February. It lacks upward driving force and follows the cost to fluctuate [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG05 [3,730 - 3,820] [37]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol comprehensive profit was - 215.5 yuan/ton, and the East China basis strengthened [40]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic methanol device operation rate has declined from a high level. The overseas devices are slightly under - loaded. The supply pressure is expected to ease in January. The demand is slightly weakening. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and the demand is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Close long positions. Focus on the range of MA05 [2,225 - 2,285] [42]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The urea main contract price and related data changed. The Shandong small - particle urea basis was - 31 yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 29 yuan/ton [43]. - **Core Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The supply - side operation rate is rising, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period. The short - term demand is strong, but the downstream demand is entering the festival off - season. There is a ceiling and a floor for the price under relevant policies [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter storage has limited positive effects, the supply pressure is rising, and the demand is seasonally weak. Focus on the range of UR05 [1,780 - 1,810] [46]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 16, the NG main contract closed at 3.128 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.26% month - on - month. The US Henry Hub spot price and other prices changed [48][49]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is stable, and the price is under pressure. The domestic LNG retail profit increased. The US natural gas rig count decreased [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, although the demand has support, the supply is relatively abundant, and the price is under pressure. Focus on the range of NG [3.355 - 3.991] [50]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 16, the BU main contract closed at 3,130 yuan/ton, down 1.17% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed to varying degrees [52][53]. - **Core Logic**: The export of Venezuelan crude oil is uncertain, the raw material is tight, and the Middle East geopolitical situation has eased, leading to a decline in oil prices. The profit has decreased, the supply has increased, and the inventory has risen [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to geopolitical risks. Focus on the range of BU [3,100 - 3,200] [55]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract price and related data changed. The FG05 basis was - 66 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 110 yuan/ton [57][58]. - **Core Logic**: The enterprise inventory is slowly decreasing from a high level, and the market is weakly oscillating. The supply and demand are both weak, the profit of three processes has turned negative, and the weak demand suppresses the upside [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of FG [1,080 - 1,130] [59]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract price and related data changed. The SA05 basis was - 43 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [61][62]. - **Core Logic**: The production enterprise operation rate has increased, the factory inventory has accumulated against the season, and the market has returned to weak oscillation. The demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [63]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the cost operation, focus on the range of SA [1,180 - 1,230] [63].