Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Olefins: ★★☆ (suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Plastics: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish or bearish bias, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally affected by macro - policies, and different sectors show different trends and influencing factors. Some sectors are driven by policies, while others are restricted by supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures rose on the day, with macro - positives still boosting the market. The restart of propylene plants and downstream start - up rhythms are in a game, with increased propylene supply weakening the fundamentals and suppressing price rebounds. The market may remain weak in the short term [2] - Polyolefin futures continued to rise. For polyethylene, although macro - policies are positive, demand is weak and domestic supply is abundant. For polypropylene, after the sale of low - price resources, the price center has risen, but short - term demand is affected by the off - season, and the short - term increase may be limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of unified benzene has strengthened significantly due to the rebound of oil prices and domestic commodity sentiment and policies. The weekly output has declined, and the expectation of hydrogenated benzene is strong. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the mid - to - late third quarter, but it will face pressure again in the fourth quarter. Band operation of monthly spreads is recommended [3] - Styrene futures rose, hitting the half - year line. The macro - aspect continues to boost the market. Downstream buyers operate according to the market, mainly digesting existing raw materials, and spot procurement is on - demand, with poor spot trading [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rose significantly, driven by oil prices, market sentiment, and policies. PX has limited fundamental drivers. The inventory pressure of filaments has eased, and the drag on upstream raw materials is expected to weaken. PTA processing margins are low and have room for repair, waiting for the recovery of downstream demand [4] - Ethylene glycol continued to rise with increased positions, boosted by the positive sentiment in the coal market and domestic policies. Downstream demand is stable on a weekly basis, domestic supply has increased slightly, and ports have slightly accumulated inventory. Overseas device operation is unstable, which may disrupt the market [4] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices rebounded with raw materials. Short - term demand for short fiber is still in the off - season, but new capacity is limited, and the recovery of future demand is expected to boost the industry. For bottle chips, the load continues to decline, and price repair is limited under low - start conditions [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures continued to rise, mainly affected by relevant policies. The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and ports are expected to see unexpected destocking this week. Domestic main - producing area enterprises are starting autumn maintenance, but some enterprises may resume work early or postpone maintenance due to good profits. Downstream procurement is for rigid demand, and enterprise inventory has decreased slightly [5] - Urea futures fluctuated strongly. The peak season of agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the current operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is still low. Domestic downstream demand is weak. Export goods are being shipped to ports, and production enterprises are continuously destocking, but the destocking rate has slowed down. The market supply remains sufficient, and with policy support, the urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices were pushed up by cost due to the fermentation of anti - involution policies, and the futures price was strong. The demand of downstream product enterprises is in the off - season, and social inventory has been accumulating since July. Domestic demand is weak, and export deliveries have decreased. Supply is expected to increase next week. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with cost; in the long term, if the elimination of backward production capacity does not meet expectations, the price may not rise continuously [6] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. Upstream salt has issued an anti - involution document, and attention should be paid to whether it will affect the raw salt industry and drive up the price of caustic soda raw materials. Downstream buyers resist high prices, supply has increased, and inventory has increased month - on - month. Alumina demand provides some support, but non - aluminum downstream demand is average. The short - term market is greatly affected by the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the elimination of backward production capacity [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continued to be strong due to the temporary shutdown of Haitian's device and positive sentiment. Inventory continued to decline, and the spot price increased. The supply is under high pressure. The photovoltaic industry is suffering large losses and is reducing production due to anti - involution policies. In the short term, the market is mainly affected by macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to whether actual policies will be introduced for the small amount of backward production capacity [7] - Glass prices continued to rise, with a 50 - yuan increase in Shahe today. Middle - stream buyers are stocking up, and the industry is in a destocking mode. Industry profits have slightly recovered, and production capacity has fluctuated slightly. Processing orders are weak. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash at low levels can be considered [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Author: Shi Lei, Shi Zhuoran [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long term, due to the continuous fermentation of anti - involution policies and the confirmation of coal mine production inspections, the black series futures showed an upward trend in the market, but the impact on iron ore was relatively small. Steel mills' profitability continued to increase, daily average pig iron production slightly declined, and foreign ore shipments rebounded. The black series is expected to operate in a volatile and upward - trending manner, and attention should be paid to relevant policy announcements and implementation [52]. - In the short term, the black series will continue its upward trend, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and macro - sentiment changes [53]. - For glass and soda ash, in the medium to long term, the float glass start - up rate has slightly declined, with potential future production cuts, continuous reduction of in - factory inventory, and cost - side support for prices, but limited improvement in demand. Soda ash production has decreased, but the oversupply situation persists, and the recent price increase is mainly due to macro - level disturbances [56]. - In the short term, the glass futures contract has risen significantly, and a bullish view is maintained in the short term. The soda ash 09 contract has also risen, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and excessive chasing of the rise is not recommended [57]. Summary by Directory Black Series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | July 18, 2025 | July 25, 2025 | Change | Percentage Change (%) | Spot Price | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2510 | 3147 | 3356 | 209 | 6.64 | 3380 | 24 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | HC2510 | 3310 | 3507 | 197 | 5.95 | 3580 | 73 | | Iron Ore | I2509 | 785 | 803 | 17.5 | 2.23 | 806 | 3.5 | | Coke | J2509 | 1518 | 1763 | 245 | 16.14 | 1090 | - 673 | | Coking Coal | JM2509 | 926 | 1259 | 333 | 35.96 | 1280 | 21 | | Glass | FG509 | 1081 | 1362 | 281 | 25.99 | 1180 | - 182 | | Soda Ash | SA509 | 1216 | 1440 | 224 | 18.42 | 1250 | - 190 | [3] Rebar - **Profit**: On July 24, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was reported at 256 yuan/ton, a 93 - yuan increase compared to July 17 [7]. - **Supply**: As of July 25, the blast - furnace start - up rate was 83.46% (unchanged from the previous week), the electric - furnace start - up rate was 62.18% (an increase of 3.21 percentage points), the daily average pig iron production was 242.23 tons (a decrease of 0.21 tons), and the rebar production was 2.1196 million tons (an increase of 29,000 tons) [12]. - **Demand**: In the week of July 25, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 2.1658 million tons, a 104,100 - ton increase from the previous week. As of July 24, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 111,473 tons, a 16,597 - ton increase compared to July 17 [16]. - **Inventory**: In the week of July 25, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 3.7297 million tons, a 21,800 - ton increase from the previous week, and the in - factory inventory was reported at 1.6567 million tons, a 74,300 - ton decrease [21]. Float Glass - **Supply**: As of July 25, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 222, a decrease of 1 compared to the previous week; the weekly output was 1,108,175 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; as of July 24, the capacity utilization rate was 79.48%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points; the start - up rate was 75%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points [26]. - **Inventory**: On July 25, the in - factory inventory of float glass was reported at 61.896 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million weight - boxes compared to July 18, and the in - factory inventory days were 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days [31]. - **Demand**: As of July 15, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 9.3 days, a decrease of 0.2 days compared to June 30 [35]. Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of July 25, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was reported at 83.02%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points compared to the previous week, and the output was 723,800 tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons [40]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was reported at 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons compared to July 18 [45]. - **Production and Sales Ratio**: As of July 25, the production and sales ratio of soda ash was reported at 105.66%, an increase of 11.42 percentage points compared to July 18 [49].

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 日期 2024 年 7 月 25 日 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 7 月 24 日，纯碱主力期货 SA509，低开高走，大幅上涨。收盘价 1408 元/吨，上 涨 59 元/吨,涨幅为 4.37%，日减仓 110401 手。 纯碱基本面情况来看，供应下降，需求回升，累库情况仍存。7 月 24 日当周中国 纯碱周度产量为 72.38 万吨，环比减少 1.28%，仍处 70 万吨以上高位区间；中国 纯碱周度产能利用率为 83. ...

Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Views - Market sentiment is high, and steel prices are oscillating strongly. The glass and soda ash market transactions have improved, leading to a significant increase in the glass and soda ash futures market. The high - price sentiment in the ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon manganese markets is strong, and the market maintains on - demand procurement [1][3] Market Analysis and Strategy for Different Products Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market rose significantly yesterday. The downstream procurement sentiment has warmed up, and spot sales have improved. This week, the开工 rate of float glass enterprises was 75.1%, a decrease of 0.43% month - on - month. The manufacturer's inventory was 61.896 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 46,900 heavy boxes month - on - month, with significant destocking. However, the overall inventory remains high, and the destocking pressure is still large. In the long term, the glass supply - demand is still relatively loose [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market rose significantly yesterday. The downstream transactions were stable, mainly in a wait - and - see state. This week, the soda ash开工率 was 83.02%, a decrease of 1.28% month - on - month; the output was 723,800 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons month - on - month; the inventory was 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% month - on - month, with obvious destocking. Currently in the summer maintenance stage, the soda ash开工率 is expected to remain at a low level. With the production cut of photovoltaic glass, the demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further, and the annual inventory pressure is large [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Ferrosilicon Manganese: The ferrosilicon manganese futures slightly corrected yesterday. The market sentiment was mainly wait - and - see, and the overall price was firm. The price in the northern market was 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was about 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon manganese output remained stable, the hot metal output rebounded, and the overall demand for ferrosilicon manganese maintained resilience. The inventory of ferrosilicon manganese manufacturers and registered warehouse receipts were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of ferrosilicon manganese. The shipment from the Australian end of manganese ore has basically recovered [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated strongly yesterday. The market sentiment in the ferrosilicon spot market was okay, and the price of ferrosilicon was running steadily and strongly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area was 5,400 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was reported at 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. The output increased month - on - month, the demand slightly decreased, and the factory inventory was at a medium - to - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment improved, and the price fluctuated following the sector. In the long term, the ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively loose [3] Strategy - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6] Core View of the Report - Macro - level positive factors are frequent, but black commodities show differentiated performance. The market sentiment has become cautious after continuous sharp rises since July. The draft amendment to the price law is favorable for bulk commodities. In the industrial aspect, due to concentrated replenishment in the mid - stream, spot resources are tight, but there is no obvious turnaround in the terminal sector, and negative factors may be reflected in the steel inventory accumulation pressure during the off - peak to peak season transition [1]. - Overall, with continuous macro - level positives, the continuous rally in the futures market stimulates mid - stream players such as those involved in futures - cash operations to build positions, forming a positive feedback in the industrial chain. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased as expected. Steel mills' profitability has increased significantly, and iron - making water production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting ore demand. The inventory at 45 ports is stable, with an increase in berthing vessels and a slight increase in total inventory. There are limited negative fundamental drivers, and continued upward movement requires new drivers. It is expected that the price will oscillate [2]. Carbon Element - Market expectations for "anti - involution" in the coal industry have deepened. Some previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, but there are still disruptions in domestic coal supply. The Sino - Mongolian border ports have fully resumed customs clearance, and the clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing. Two rounds of coke price increases have been implemented, but coke producers still face losses. Coke supply has tightened, while downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing inventory. Futures are at a significant premium, and futures - cash traders are actively diverting supplies. Coke inventories at coke producers are continuously decreasing. It is expected that the short - term futures market will oscillate with a slight upward trend [2]. Alloys - As coke enters the price - increase cycle, it strengthens the cost support for ferromanganese - silicon. The market sentiment is positive, port ore traders are actively supporting prices, and manganese ore prices are firm. On the supply side, the daily output of ferromanganese - silicon has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, and manufacturers' profitability has improved significantly, with an increased drive for resumption of production. On the demand side, steel mills have good profit conditions, and the output of finished steel products remains high. It is expected that the short - term futures price will follow the overall trend of the sector [3]. Glass - During the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has decreased month - on - month. The current good sales - to - production ratio may be due to speculative purchases. There are 2 production lines yet to start producing glass and 1 line for cold - repair, and the daily melting capacity is expected to remain stable. Real - world demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and speculative demand is high. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, there may be a wave of inventory replenishment and price increases. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the market is expected to oscillate [3][6]. Soda Ash - The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged, but short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures market. After the positive feedback, a large amount of inventory is locked in by futures - cash operations, resulting in significant delivery pressure. In the short term, prices are likely to rise but difficult to fall, and in the long term, the price center will decline [6]. Steel - The "anti - involution" sentiment is high, and the draft amendment to the price law is favorable. After the continuous rally in the futures market, market transactions have improved, but the increase in spot prices has slowed down. This week, the supply and demand of five major steel products have both decreased, and inventory has slightly decreased. The inventory level is at a relatively low position in history, and the fundamental contradictions during the off - season are not obvious. In the off - season, with strong support from furnace materials under the background of high iron - making water production and high "anti - involution" sentiment, the futures market is likely to rise and difficult to fall. Future focus should be on policy implementation and off - season demand performance [8]. Iron Ore - Port transactions have increased. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased as expected. Steel mills' profitability has increased significantly, and iron - making water production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting ore demand. The inventory at 45 ports is stable, with an increase in berthing vessels and a slight increase in total inventory. Ore demand is at a high level, supply is stable, and there are limited negative fundamental drivers. Continued upward movement requires new drivers, and it is expected that the price will oscillate [8]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume has slightly decreased, and steel mills' daily consumption has increased. The fundamentals of scrap steel are acceptable. On the supply side, the arrival volume has decreased this week, and resources are tight. On the demand side, the profit of electric arc furnaces during off - peak electricity hours has improved, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process steel production has increased. The factory inventory has slightly decreased. Scrap steel demand is high, resources are tight, but there is a lack of independent driving factors, and it is expected that the price will follow the trend of finished steel products [9]. Coke - On the futures side, the main contract is oscillating with a slight upward trend; on the现货 side, prices have increased. After two rounds of price increases, coke producers still face losses, and a third round of price increases is on the way. Coke supply has tightened, while downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing inventory. Futures are at a significant premium, and futures - cash traders are actively diverting supplies. Coke inventories at coke producers are continuously decreasing. The current supply - demand structure of coke is tight, and price increases are accelerating. Coke demand is strong, cost support is strengthening, and it is expected that the short - term futures market will oscillate with a slight upward trend [9][11]. Coking Coal - On the futures side, there are strong expectations for coal supply - side reform, and the market sentiment is positive. On the supply side, there are still disruptions in production in the producing areas, and supply is restricted. On the import side, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is around 1,000 trucks, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Downstream and traders are actively purchasing, and coal mine inventories are significantly decreasing. In the short term, under the influence of market sentiment, coking coal still has upward potential [12]. Ferromanganese - Silicon - The futures price of ferromanganese - silicon is oscillating. On the cost side, coke price increases strengthen cost support, and manganese ore prices are stable. On the supply side, the daily output has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, and manufacturers' profitability has improved, with an increased drive for resumption of production. On the demand side, steel mills have good profit conditions, and the output of finished steel products remains high. The short - term futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the sector [16]. Ferrosilicon - The futures price of ferrosilicon is weak. On the supply side, manufacturers' resumption of production is accelerating. On the demand side, steel production remains at a high level, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steel - making is resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, and the short - term futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the sector [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of anti - involution narratives and expectations of incremental policies, the overall stock and commodity markets remain strong, while long - term bonds are under pressure. The market is affected by factors such as trade negotiations, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in put options on MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, and reduce positions, maintaining a moderately bullish stance. On the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies [2]. Treasury Bonds - The risk assets suppress long - term bonds. With the tightening of the capital market, the short - selling sentiment in the bond futures market has increased, and the redemption pressure on bond funds may start to rise, which still suppresses the bond market. In terms of the curve strategy, it is possible to continue to bet on the steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and its commodity attributes, and it oscillates above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential due to the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflows, and long positions can be held. Gold continues to correct as the European Central Bank pauses rate cuts for the first time in a year and the risk - aversion sentiment eases [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract rebounds slightly. With the increasing expectation of anti - involution, the price continues to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - The iron ore has insufficient upward momentum as the molten iron output slightly decreases and the port inventory slightly increases. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The steel price continues to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be held [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of production - restriction documents is rising, the resumption of coal mines is lagging, the spot market is strong, and the transaction is picking up. The third round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has started, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to take profits on long positions step by step at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term sentiment fades, and high copper prices suppress demand. - Aluminum: The market sentiment is bullish, and the aluminum price oscillates at a high level, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. - Other non - ferrous metals also have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on factors such as macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply - demand [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The macro - sentiment eases, and the demand expectation recovers, pushing up the oil price. - Other energy and chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions according to factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The document on air pollution prevention boosts market sentiment, and the spot transaction is strong. - Rubber: The macro - sentiment is positive, and supply disruptions due to rainy weather in overseas production areas and conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia drive up the rubber price. - Other special commodities also have corresponding market trends and trading suggestions [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures oscillate and rise to a new high, but attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to the increase in warehouse receipts. - Recycled lithium: The market sentiment is boosted, but the fundamental change is not significant. It is recommended to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-25 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面： "反内卷"政策持续发酵，提振市场情绪；碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮 法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量大幅下滑，终端需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1390元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1408元/吨，基差为-18元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存186.46万吨，较前一周减少2.15%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，政策利好持续提振情绪，短期预计震荡偏强运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策持续 ...

Group 1: Internet Media - Google's advertising revenue exceeded expectations in Q2 2025, indicating overall active economic activity in the U.S. and alleviating concerns about AI's impact on traditional search engine advertising [2] - Google Cloud's revenue and profitability were strong, leading to an upward revision of the annual capital expenditure guidance, with AI demand continuing to outstrip supply [2] - The full-stack AI industry chain comprising data centers, ASICs, algorithms, and products gives Google a solid and differentiated advantage in the AI field, suggesting continued attention is warranted [2] Group 2: Petrochemicals - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to launch a growth stabilization plan for the petrochemical industry, which is expected to promote the elimination of outdated capacity and lead to healthier industry development [3] - Key companies to watch include: in the soda ash sector, Boyuan Chemical, Shandong Haihua, China Salt Chemical, and Shuanghuan Technology; in the PVC sector, Xinjiang Tianye, Sanyou Chemical, and Chlor-alkali Chemical [3] Group 3: Non-ferrous Metals - The recent Central Financial Committee's emphasis on legally governing low-price disorderly competition is expected to facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacity in the copper smelting industry [4] - If the "anti-involution" theme is implemented, it may limit new copper smelting capacity and accelerate the exit of small smelting capacities, leading to improved profitability for smelting enterprises [4] - Companies to focus on include Tongling Nonferrous Metals, China Daye Nonferrous Metals, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper [4] Group 4: Construction - The commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station is expected to generate new demand for construction and materials [5] - Recommended companies include China Power Construction, China Energy Construction, China Communications Construction, and China Railway, along with material suppliers like Huaxin Cement and Tibet Tianlu [5] Group 5: Pharmaceuticals - The precise adjustment of medical insurance policies is reshaping the pharmaceutical industry ecosystem, with the "anti-involution" in procurement clearing low-quality capacity and creating market space for quality enterprises [6] - Focus on two types of companies: those that continue to be selected in procurement with dual advantages in quality and cost, and innovative drug companies with rich R&D pipelines [6] - Recommended companies include Heng Rui Medicine, Jingxin Pharmaceutical, and Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical, with attention to MicroPort Medical, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, and Fangsheng Pharmaceutical [6] Group 6: Automotive - Tesla's Q2 2025 performance showed a recovery, with a shift in focus towards AI-driven initiatives like Robotaxi and humanoid robots [8] - Due to uncertainties in overseas policies and market sales, the 2025E/2026E/2027E Non-GAAP net profit estimates have been adjusted to $6.06 billion, $8.77 billion, and $11.28 billion respectively [8] - Tesla's leading position in AI technology iteration and commercialization capabilities remains a positive outlook [8] Group 7: Internet Literature - The online reading business of the report's subject company remains stable, but revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 7.39 billion, 7.95 billion, and 8.14 billion yuan due to uncertainties in new series and adjustments in short drama revenue recognition [9] - The company's proprietary profit continues to improve, supported by the strong performance of new businesses like short dramas and IP derivatives [9] - The full-year performance growth remains highly certain, with adjusted net profit forecasts of 1.35 billion, 1.53 billion, and 1.66 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [9]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the chemical and coal industries, discussing the impact of government policies and market dynamics on various sectors within these industries [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Chemical Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is conducting assessments of outdated production capacity, particularly in Hunan, where the lifespan has been reduced to 20 years. This could lead to significant elimination of outdated capacity in the chemical sector, enhancing market confidence in future profit reversals [1][2]. - In the soda ash industry, natural soda ash is expected to increase its market share to 60% due to environmental advantages, aiding in price recovery. Companies to watch include Yuanxing Energy and Zhongyan Chemical [1][2]. - The urea industry has an operating rate exceeding 80%, with about 30% of old facilities over 20 years old. The elimination of outdated capacity is expected to benefit supply-demand balance, with a focus on companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Hubei Yihua [1][2]. - Glyphosate and glufosinate prices are showing signs of bottoming out, driven by low overseas inventory and seasonal demand peaks. Domestic and international companies are voluntarily halting production, which may lead to price increases. Key companies include Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Lier Chemical [1][3]. - The organic silicon sector is experiencing strong demand, with DMC apparent demand growth exceeding 20% year-on-year from January to May. The industry operating rate is around 70%, and if this growth continues, rates may exceed 80% in the second half of the year. Companies to monitor include Xin'an Chemical and Xingfa Group [1][3]. Coal Industry - The coal industry is responding to overproduction issues through regulatory measures. A recent document from the Energy Bureau indicates that production exceeding approved capacities will be scrutinized, marking the beginning of a "de-involution" phase aimed at reducing excessive competition and improving resource utilization [4][5]. - The coal market has seen a relatively loose supply-demand balance this year, with prices declining until a slight rebound in late June due to seasonal demand. The current price range of 600-650 RMB/ton is seen as a price floor, with expectations that further declines are unlikely [5][7][8]. - The policies implemented are primarily focused on managing production rather than capacity, similar to past measures taken to address severe oversupply issues. The current market is not in a state of excess, with overproduction mainly observed in Xinjiang [6]. Construction Materials Industry - The construction materials sector is experiencing a "de-involution" phenomenon, characterized by overcapacity leading to intensified price competition. Companies are collaborating to limit production and stabilize prices, particularly in the cement and glass industries [9][10]. - The future focus for the cement industry includes strict enforcement of production limits and carbon emission management, with expectations for stricter policies starting in 2026 [12]. Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate market is facing significant internal competition, with production costs varying widely. Prices have dropped from a peak of 600,000 RMB/ton to a low of 60,000 RMB/ton, leading to many hard rock lithium mines operating at a loss. The government aims to increase self-sufficiency in strategic resources, which may lead to supply-side adjustments [15][16]. - Companies to watch in the current market environment include Zhongkuang Resources, which is expected to stabilize its business valuation as prices recover. Other companies with lighter historical burdens, like Shenxinfu, are also worth monitoring [17]. Other Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the chemical and coal industries is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for price recovery and improved profitability as outdated capacities are phased out and regulatory measures take effect [1][2][4][8]. - The construction materials sector is anticipated to benefit from economic recovery and demand rebound, presenting potential investment opportunities [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished products continue to be strong. The cost side provides significant support for steel prices. With low inventory levels and supply - demand stimuli, the futures market is expected to strengthen. The market should focus on policy signals, terminal demand repair, and cost support [3]. - The short - term price fluctuations of various commodities are mainly driven by market sentiment and expectations. It is difficult to determine if the prices have reached a short - term peak. Speculators should be rational, and industrial players can consider hedging [9][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.610%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2995 tons, and the main contract open interest decreased by 16348 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai changed differently. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3456 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.523%). The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 296 tons, and the main contract open interest increased by 12461 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai also had different changes [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost side supports steel prices. In the short term, supply - demand factors and low inventory levels are expected to drive the market up. The demand for rebar increased slightly this week, and inventory decreased, while the demand for hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, and inventory increased. The inventories of both are at a five - year low. The market should pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 811.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.12% (- 1.00), and the open interest decreased by 17104 lots to 56.28 million lots. The weighted open interest was 103.95 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 29.04 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.46% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Market Analysis**: Recent overseas iron ore shipments rebounded, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average molten iron output was high but decreased slightly. Port and steel mill inventories increased slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand and supply changes [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On July 24, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.17% at 5948 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5860 yuan/ton, with a premium of 102 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 1.34% at 5754 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, with a discount of 54 yuan/ton [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: The long - term fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are bearish, but short - term price fluctuations are dominated by market sentiment. It is recommended that speculators be rational, and industrial players can consider hedging [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position Data**: On July 24, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 1.73% at 9690 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China increased, with different basis relationships [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Industrial silicon still faces over - supply and insufficient demand. The short - term price may be affected by market sentiment, and there is a risk of a short - term peak [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China changed differently. The total inventory of national float glass decreased, and the short - term price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to avoid short positions. In the long term, the price trend depends on real estate policies and supply - demand balance [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but the medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction remains. It is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment cools down [16].