Report Title - Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Copper [1] Report Core View - Sino-US economic and trade negotiation easing and expected tight supply of copper mines support copper prices. The expectation of future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction by the Fed, the preliminary agreement reached in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline, and pay attention to support and pressure levels for different copper contracts [2][3]. Group 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis of Shanghai copper is negative and at a relatively low level, while the monthly spread is positive and basically within a reasonable range. Due to high copper prices suppressing downstream demand and leading to mainly rigid - demand purchases, but considering the Fed's future interest rate cut and end of balance sheet reduction expectations, continuous tight global copper concentrate supply, and more maintenance capacity of domestic copper smelters in October, investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, low - buying arbitrage opportunities for the basis of Shanghai copper [9]. - The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME copper is negative and basically within a reasonable range, and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and at a relatively high level. The ratio of Shanghai - LME copper prices is at the 50% quantile of the past five years. Due to the continuous accumulation of overseas electrolytic copper inventory, but with an increase in the expected number of future interest rate cuts by the Fed and continuous tight global copper concentrate supply, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME copper [10]. - The spread between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX copper is negative and basically within a reasonable range; the spread between LME copper and Shanghai copper, and between COMEX copper and Shanghai copper is positive and basically within a reasonable range, while the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper is negative and basically within a reasonable range. This is because the inventory of COMEX copper is at a high level and still accumulating, and future South American electrolytic copper may still be transported to the US [12]. - The closing prices of near - and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper show a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper show a Contango structure [14]. - The closure of the import window may limit the import volume of domestic electrolytic copper, resulting in a decrease in the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas compared with last week, an increase in China's social inventory of electrolytic copper, and a decrease in the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange [19]. - The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX copper decreased month - on - month. Both non - commercial long and short positions increased, as did commercial long and short positions [22]. Group 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The inventory of copper concentrates at Chinese ports decreased compared with last week. The large - scale wet ore spill accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia on September 8 may reduce the copper and gold production in 2026 by about 35% compared with pre - accident estimates, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production (import) of domestic copper concentrates in October. The Chinese copper concentrate import index is negative and decreased compared with last week, and the port copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volume in the world (China) increased (decreased, decreased) compared with last week [27][29]. - The positive spread between refined and scrap copper in China may boost the economy of scrap copper. Due to restrictions on the export of high - quality scrap copper in Europe, uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations, and a positive spread between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper, the production (import) of domestic scrap copper in October may increase (decrease) month - on - month, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight [30][32]. - The 1st smelting furnace of Jiangxi Keli Copper Industry's 150,000 - ton anode plate project was ignited on August 11. The weekly processing fees for crude copper in northern (southern) China decreased month - on - month, and the rough - smelting maintenance capacity of domestic smelters in October may increase month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production (import) of domestic crude copper in October [33]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of China's scrap - produced anode plates decreased compared with last week, and the processing fees for anode plates also decreased [35][37]. - The production (import) of China's electrolytic copper in October may decrease month - on - month. Although some new domestic projects are under construction, domestic production may decrease in October. Overseas, due to maintenance and project construction progress, the import volume may also decrease [38][40]. Group 3: Downstream Demand Situation - The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined (recycled) copper rods decreased (increased) compared with last week. The daily processing fees for refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China decreased, leading to a decrease (increase) in the capacity utilization rate of refined (recycled) copper rods. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (increased), and that of recycled copper rod enterprises also decreased (increased). The capacity utilization rate (production, import, export) of domestic copper product enterprises in October decreased (decreased, decreased, decreased) month - on - month [44][46]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory decreased. The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable in October may increase month - on - month due to stable orders in the automotive wiring harness and expected release of construction and power grid orders [57][64]. - The order volume and capacity utilization rate of China's copper enameled wire increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate of copper enameled wire in October may increase month - on - month because of stable orders in new energy and transformers, and a warming expectation in the home appliance demand, although high copper prices suppress new orders [61][64]. - The weekly processing fees for China's brass plate and strip decreased, and the capacity utilization rate (production) of copper plate and strip samples decreased (decreased) compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased (increased). However, the capacity utilization rate of copper plate and strip in October may increase month - on - month due to good demand in new energy vehicles, power, and high - end electronics despite weak demand in home appliances and photovoltaics [66][74]. - The processing fees for China's lithium - ion (HTE) copper foil remained flat (increased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper foil in October may increase month - on - month because of a significant increase in the demand for HVLP ultra - low profile copper foil in the AI field, saturating the orders of many copper foil enterprises [68][74]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tube samples increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased. However, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes in October may decrease month - on - month due to the slow recovery of demand in the refrigeration industry and weak demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors [76][83]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod samples increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased. However, the capacity utilization rate of brass rods in October may decrease month - on - month due to the slow recovery of demand in the refrigeration industry and weak demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors [78][83].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong and A-share markets experienced a synchronized rise, influenced by a preliminary consensus in US-China trade relations, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.05% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.83% [1][2] - The markets have rebounded for three consecutive days, indicating a positive trend [1] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks generally saw gains, with notable increases in Baidu (up over 6%), Huahong Semiconductor, and NIO (both up over 4%) [4][5] - Semiconductor stocks led the market, with significant gains from companies like Brainhole Technology (up over 13%) and InnoCare (up over 13%) [6] - The pharmaceutical outsourcing sector also performed well, with Zhaoyan New Drug rising over 8% and WuXi AppTec increasing over 4% [7] - Copper stocks showed strong performance, with China Daye Nonferrous Metals leading with an increase of over 11% [9] - Nuclear power stocks were generally up, with China National Nuclear Corporation rising over 10% [10] Investment Trends - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of 2.873 billion HKD, indicating strong investor interest in the Hong Kong market [13] - Analysts suggest that the short-term volatility may not alter the long-term trend, with potential for improved market conditions in the fourth quarter [15]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a significant upward trend, particularly in copper futures, which have shown a slight increase of 1.76% to 88,400.00 yuan/ton [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has initiated interest rate cuts, with market expectations for two more cuts within the year; the "Big and Beautiful" plan is expected to stimulate U.S. fiscal policy, leading to a macro environment of dual easing in both fiscal and monetary policies [1] Supply and Production - According to Jinrui Futures, production disruptions at Indonesia's Grasberg mine have exceeded expectations, and TECK's mines have also revised down their production guidance, reinforcing the logic of raw material tightness; domestic smelting maintenance has increased in October, maintaining expectations for a downward shift in smelting output [1] Demand Analysis - Hualian Futures indicates that the traditional peak season is nearing its end, leading to a potential decline in copper downstream operating rates, primarily affected by sluggish performance in construction materials, home appliances, and real estate; however, demand from the new energy sector remains strong [1] Market Outlook - Wuzhong Futures suggests that progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, coupled with weak U.S. inflation data, are likely to result in a dovish stance from the Fed, maintaining a generally positive market sentiment; on the supply side, expectations for tight copper raw material supply, along with low LME and domestic inventories, indicate that copper prices are likely to continue a strong performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant price increases, driven by supply shortages and strong demand from technology and energy sectors, positioning copper as a strategic resource akin to "new oil" [3][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On October 24, the copper futures market saw a net inflow of 3.871 billion yuan, with total funds in copper futures reaching 46.059 billion yuan, making it the second-largest commodity futures after gold [2][3]. - As of October 27, the main copper futures contract surpassed 88,000 yuan per ton, with spot prices in Shanghai exceeding 86,500 yuan per ton and LME prices nearing $11,000 per ton [2][3]. - The market sentiment remains bullish, with predictions indicating a return to supply shortages for copper for the first time in three years [2][3]. Group 2: Company Performance - The rising copper prices have led to significant gains in the performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous sector, with notable increases in stock prices, such as a 99.36% rise for Tongling Nonferrous Metals and a 178.76% rise for Luoyang Molybdenum from April 9 to October 24 [4]. - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen an overall increase of over 70% this year, approaching historical highs, with copper-heavy ETFs also experiencing substantial growth [4]. - Companies are reporting significant profit increases, with Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit for Q3 reaching 5.608 billion yuan, a 96.4% year-on-year increase, attributed to higher copper production and sales [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The copper market is entering a structural tightness phase, with demand shifting from traditional industries to technology and energy sectors, driven by global energy transitions and AI advancements [6][7]. - Factors contributing to supply constraints include insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining, declining ore grades, and extended development cycles, leading to increased uncertainty in supply [7]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts a supply shortfall of 150,000 tons by 2026, marking the first such occurrence in three years, with production growth slowing due to incidents at major mines like Grasberg [7].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Bullish Macro Sentiment, Persistent Support from the Mine End [1] Report Date - October 27, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market is supported by a weakening US dollar due to lower - than - expected CPI data, the start of the fifth round of Sino - US trade negotiations, and the optimistic expectations brought by the 15th Five - Year Plan. On the fundamental side, supply - side disruptions continue, and the long - term demand outlook for copper remains positive due to computing power construction. However, high copper prices are suppressing downstream demand. Overall, copper prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply**: The shortage of copper ore persists, with the spot smelting fee for copper concentrate at a historical low. As of October 24, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 404,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.68%. The spot smelting fee for copper concentrate was - $42.5/ton. Domestic electrolytic copper output decreased in September, and it is expected to decline further in October [5]. - **Demand**: The market is transitioning to the off - season, and high copper prices are suppressing demand. As of October 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 61.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.97 percentage points. In September, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively [5]. - **Inventory**: The accumulation of domestic copper inventory has slowed down. As of October 24, the SHFE copper inventory was 10.48 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.94%. As of October 23, the domestic social copper inventory was 181,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The LME copper inventory decreased, while the COMEX copper inventory increased [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering the bullish macro sentiment, the long - term tight supply of copper concentrates, and the suppression of downstream demand by high copper prices, copper prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term [7]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro Data**: China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the first three quarters. China's September social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3% year - on - year. The US September core CPI had the slowest growth rate in three months, strengthening the market's expectation of two interest rate cuts within the year. The US October Markit PMI reached the second - highest level this year [15]. - **Industry News**: China's September scrap copper imports increased by 14.84% year - on - year. The copper production of major mining companies such as BHP, MMG, and Vale increased in Q3 2025. Southern Copper's Tía María copper mine project was approved [17]. 3. Futures, Spot Market, and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: High copper prices weakened downstream purchasing sentiment, and the spot premium of SHFE copper decreased. The LME copper 0 - 3 maintained a slight discount, and the New York - London copper price difference fluctuated. The refined - scrap copper price difference first narrowed and then widened [24]. - **Domestic and Overseas Positions**: As of October 24, the SHFE copper futures open interest increased by 27.88% week - on - week, while the average daily trading volume decreased by 21.52% week - on - week. As of October 17, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased by 20.10% week - on - week [26]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The shortage of copper ore persists, and the spot smelting fee for copper concentrate remains at a historical low. Domestic electrolytic copper output decreased in September and is expected to decline further [35]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: As of October 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises decreased. In September, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively [40]. - **Imports and Exports**: As of October 24, the SHFE - LME ratio of electrolytic copper was stable, and the negative value of the spot import profit and loss of copper widened slightly. In September, China's refined copper imports increased by 2.91% year - on - year, scrap copper imports increased by 14.84% year - on - year, and unforged copper and copper products imports increased by 1% year - on - year [42]. - **Inventory**: As of October 24, the SHFE copper inventory decreased, the domestic social copper inventory accumulation slowed down, the LME copper inventory decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased [45].

Group 1 - Copper stocks collectively rose, with notable increases: China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals up 10% to HKD 0.099, Luoyang Molybdenum up 7.28% to HKD 17.38, Jiangxi Copper up 4.29% to HKD 35.04, and Zijin Mining up 4.29% to HKD 35.04 [1] - The U.S.-China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur led to preliminary consensus on several key economic issues, indicating a potential easing of tariff pressures [1] - The Grasberg copper mine has no news on resuming production, contributing to tight copper supply and challenging smelting profit environments, with downstream consumption not meeting last year's levels during the traditional peak season [1] Group 2 - Downstream acceptance of copper prices is gradually improving, with better procurement reported this week [2] - Codelco plans to raise the copper surcharge for the European market to USD 345 per ton by 2026, marking a historical high and reflecting market concerns over tight copper supply next year [2] - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive, with the sector's valuation at historically low levels, suggesting a buy adjustment [2]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.02%, gaining 267 points to close at 26,427 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.48% [1] - Baidu Group-SW (09888) surged over 5% as its recent project "萝卜快跑" launched in Switzerland, with institutions shifting valuation logic towards AI integration [1] - Copper prices approached highs due to positive sentiment from US-China tariff negotiations, leading to a collective rise in copper stocks, with Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) up 4.5% and Jiangxi Copper (00358) up 4.6% [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin surpassed $115,000, increasing by 3.35% in a day, which positively impacted cryptocurrency-related stocks, with New Fire Technology Holdings (01611) rising over 11% and Boya Interactive (00434) up 5.5% [1] - Chongqing Bank (01963) saw its stock rise over 4%, reporting over 10% growth in both revenue and net profit for the first three quarters, and plans to distribute cash dividends of approximately 585 million yuan [1] - Meitu Inc. (01357) increased over 7%, with its three core apps achieving record revenue growth year-on-year in September, benefiting from the overseas holiday season [1] Group 3 - Conant Optical (02276) rose over 5% as Alibaba launched its self-developed Quark AI glasses, with the company being the exclusive lens supplier [1] - Boleton (01333) increased by 4%, as the electric mining sector moves towards a market-driven phase, highlighting the company's product performance advantages [1] - Aux Electric (02580) surged over 7% after the board approved a three-year dividend payout plan, with stable domestic sales [1] Group 4 - Tiangong International (00826) rose over 6%, positioning itself in the scarce core materials sector, with significant growth potential in titanium alloys and nuclear fusion materials [1] - Qiming Medical-B (02500) increased over 12% after completing all clinical enrollments for the CARDIOVALVE TTVR confirmatory clinical study [1] - GAC Group (02238) fell by 2.6%, reporting a loss of approximately 4.312 billion yuan in the first three quarters, marking a shift from profit to loss year-on-year [1] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) declined by 2.7%, with Citigroup predicting its third-quarter performance may slightly underperform expectations [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 1.02%, gaining 267 points to close at 26,427 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.48% [1] - Baidu Group-SW (09888) surged over 5% as its recent launch in Switzerland shifted core valuation logic towards AI support [1] - Bitcoin surpassed $115,000, increasing by 3.35% in a single day, leading to a rise in cryptocurrency-related stocks [1] Group 2 - Chongqing Bank (01963) increased by over 4%, reporting over 10% growth in both revenue and net profit for the first three quarters, with a proposed cash dividend of approximately 585 million yuan [2] - Meitu Inc. (01357) rose over 7%, achieving record high revenue for its three core apps in September, with expectations for a boost during the overseas holiday season [3] - Kangnex Optical (02276) gained over 5% as Alibaba's self-developed Quark AI glasses went on sale, with the company being the exclusive lens supplier [4] Group 3 - Boreton (01333) increased by 4%, as the electrification of mining moves into a market-driven phase, highlighting the performance advantages of its products [5] - Aux Electric (02580) rose over 7% after the board approved a three-year dividend payout plan, with stable domestic sales [6] - Tiangong International (00826) increased by over 6%, positioning itself in the scarce core materials sector, with significant growth potential in titanium alloys and nuclear fusion materials [7] Group 4 - Qiming Medical-B (02500) surged over 12% after completing all clinical enrollments for its CARDIOVALVE TTVR confirmatory clinical study [8] - GAC Group (02238) fell by 2.6%, reporting a loss of approximately 4.312 billion yuan for the first three quarters, marking a shift from profit to loss year-on-year [9] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) declined by 2.7%, with Citigroup predicting its third-quarter performance may slightly underperform expectations [10]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: The upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged. Buy long positions on dips [1] Report Author - Researcher: Wang Wei - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03143400 - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0022141 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The copper price has reached a resistance level near the previous high. In the future, the callback range of copper may become smaller, and it is likely to break through upwards. It is recommended to buy long positions in batches on dips [9] Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Macro - aspect**: Sino - US leaders maintain close contact. There were economic and trade consultations between China and the US from October 24th to 27th, 2025, in Malaysia. Attention should be paid to the APEC summit [5] - **Supply - side**: - **Copper Ore**: In September 2025, China imported 258.7 million tons of copper ore and its concentrates, with a cumulative import of 2,263.4 million tons from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. Supply - side disturbances increased, and the output of Grasberg and QB Phase II was lower than expected. On October 24th, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was - 42.7 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.73 dollars/ton from the previous period. Port inventory increased to 67.81 million physical tons, a decrease of 0.26 million physical tons from the previous period [7] - **Scrap Copper**: Import of scrap copper has tightened in some regions. Since July this year, Uzbekistan has imposed a 100% tariff on scrap metal exports (including scrap copper). In the domestic market, due to the suspension of production in most recycled copper rod factories in Jiangxi waiting for the tax refund policy, the demand for含税 recycled copper raw materials in Jiangxi is strong. From January to September 2025, the domestic supply of scrap copper increased by 4.18%. In September, China imported 19.59 million tons of scrap copper, with a cumulative import of 169.89 million tons from January to September, a year - on - year increase of 1.53% [7][42] - **Refined Copper**: In September 2025, the electrolytic copper output was 112.1 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05 million tons or 4.31%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.62%. From January to September, the cumulative output increased by 109.55 million tons or 12.22%. SMM expects the output in October to decrease by 3.85 million tons or 3.43% month - on - month, and there is a probability that the output in November will continue to decline [7] - **Demand - side**: From the terminal perspective, domestic demand has weakened marginally. The real estate market continues to drag down the market, and the production schedules of photovoltaic and air - conditioning have declined significantly. The main support for the later market comes from orders from the two power grids, the automotive industry, and energy - storage batteries. The consumption peak season is not prosperous, and downstream acceptance of high prices is insufficient. Purchases increase when the price is below 85,000 yuan/ton [6] - **Inventory and Spread**: - The comex - lme spread remains at 3% - 4%. South American copper is still being shipped to the US in large quantities. The LME copper inventory has decreased to 13.7 million tons, and the comex inventory has increased to over 34 million tons. As of October 23rd, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 18.16 million tons compared with Monday, and increased by 0.41 million tons compared with last Thursday. The bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.49 million tons to 9.28 million tons [9] - In the long term, when the non - US supply is generally tight and the inventory declines, consider inter - period positive spreads, mainly buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts. When the comex continues to attract South American copper, the LME inventory growth is relatively slow, and the export window may open periodically. It is recommended to exit the inter - market positive spreads position periodically after the export window opens and then re - enter at an appropriate time [9] 2. Price Trends of Domestic and Overseas Markets - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai Copper Main Contract and LME 3 - Month Copper, and lists important events affecting copper prices from 2024 to 2025, such as changes in tariffs and production plans [11][12] 3. Copper Fundamental Analysis and Weekly Data Tracking - **Copper Concentrate Market**: - In August 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 193.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.47%. Peru's copper production in August 2025 was 419.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.05%. In the first 8 months of 2025, Peru's copper production was about 181 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [32] - In August 2025, Chile's copper production decreased due to the collapse of a new mine area of El Teniente [32] - **Scrap Copper Market**: As of this Friday, the refined - scrap spread is 3,798 yuan/ton. This week, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 18.69%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 8.8 percentage points year - on - year [38] - **Crude Copper Market**: In July 2025, the crude copper output was 105.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import of anode copper was 57.87 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15.58%. On October 24th, the average domestic southern crude copper processing fee was 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week [44][48] - **Domestic Copper Supply**: From January to September 2025, China imported 254.16 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.06%. From January to September, China exported 48.95 million tons of refined copper [53] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: - In September 2025, the operating rate of refined - copper rod enterprises was 70.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.21 percentage points. It is expected to be 63.35% in October [59] - In September 2025, the operating rate of copper tube enterprises was 67.68%, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.33 percentage points. It is expected to be 67.34% in October [59] - In September 2025, the comprehensive operating rate of the enameled wire industry was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 1.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.15 percentage points. It is expected to be 67.66% in October [59] - In September 2025, the operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 72.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. It is expected to rise to 72.3% in October [59] - In August 2025, the operating rate of Chinese copper foil enterprises was 82.17%, a month - on - month increase of 3.73 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.54 percentage points. It is expected to continue to rise to 83.72% in October [59] - In September 2025, the operating rate of SMM copper plate and strip enterprises was 66.02%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.37 percentage points. It is expected to be 65.11% in October [59] - **Consumption Areas**: - **Air - conditioning**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales of air - conditioners were 15,257 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.91%. In August, the total sales of Chinese household air - conditioners were 1,302.3 million units, a year - on - year slight decline of 1.0%. In October 2025, the production schedule of household air - conditioners was 1,153 million units, a decrease of 18% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [64] - **Automotive**: In September 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9%. From January to September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9% [68] - **Power Grid Investment**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative investment in China's power grid was 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14%. From January to August, the investment in power - source projects of major power - generation enterprises nationwide was 499.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [72] - **Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing nationwide was 658 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. From January to September, the completed area of national housing was 311 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [77] - **Overseas Data**: - From January to August 2025, the sales of new - energy vehicles in the US were 1.0983 million, a year - on - year increase of 4.99% [89] - From January to August 2025, the sales of new - energy vehicles in the world were 9.625 million, a year - on - year increase of 36.7% [89] - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: - From January to August 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 230.61GW, a year - on - year increase of 90.62GW or 64.73%. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has raised this year's new installed capacity forecast to 270 - 300GW [83] - From January to August 2025, China's new wind - power installed capacity was 57.84GW, a year - on - year increase of 72.09%. It is expected that China's new wind - power installed capacity this year will be about 105 - 115GW [83] - **Industry News and Macro Data**: - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing from October 20th to 23rd, studying suggestions on formulating the "15th Five - Year Plan" [90] - China and the US agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [90] - Japan, Spain, and South Korea expressed deep concern about the continuous decline of copper processing and refining fees (TC/RCs) [90] - In September 2025, China's new - energy vehicle production was 1.58 million, a year - on - year increase of 20.3% [90] - From January to September 2025, Zijin Mining's mineral copper production was 830,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5% [90] - China's GDP in the third quarter of 2025 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year [90]

2025 年 10 月 27 日 铜：宏观情绪改善，价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 87,720 | 1.92% | 87660 | -0.07% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,947 | 1.20% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 301,579 | 109,298 | 583,612 | 38,667 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 25,665 | 1,628 | 319,000 | 3,718 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 35,071 | -977 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 136,350 | -575 | 7.59% | -0.28% | | | | | 昨 ...