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所长 早读 2025-05-08 期 国泰君安期货 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 符合市场预期，美联储继续按兵不动 观点分享： 美东时间 5 月 7 日，美联储在货币政策委员会 FOMC 会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区 间保持 4.25%至 4.5%不变。这是美联储连续第三次货币政策会议决定暂停行动。特朗普今年 1 月上任以来，尽管一再喊话呼吁降息，但美联储还是一直保持观望并未降息，还暗示目前 关税等政策有引发滞胀的风险。相比 3 月的 FOMC 会后声明，在 3 月"经济前景相关的不确 定性增加"的表述上添加了"进一步"这个词，强调了"不确定性"的增加。并判定"失业 率上升和通胀上升的风险已经增加"。并且在声明开头提到"净出口波动已影响数据"，尽 管接下来依然使用了"最近的指标显示经济活动继续稳健扩张"的表述。另外，声明没有再 次提到"进一步放慢缩减资产负债表（缩表）这一量化紧缩（QT）行动的步伐"。再有，本 次既不调整利率也不再改动缩表的决策，全体 FOMC 的投票委员都表示支持。 宏观：5 月7 日，国新办发布会官宣一系列金融稳市场、稳预期政策。首先从政策内容上看， 所 长 ...

Report Information - Date: May 8, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has a specific outlook, such as price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and the impact of macro - economic and industry news [2][4]. Commodity Summaries Precious Metals - **Gold**: Slight progress in Sino - US negotiations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The prices of different gold contracts showed various changes, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings [5][6][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to decline in a volatile manner. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Silver prices also showed fluctuations in different contracts [5][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories limit price declines. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. There are supply - demand changes in the copper market, and some companies' production has increased [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Some alumina enterprises plan to cut production [14][15]. - **Zinc**: Operating under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Zinc prices and inventory data have changed [16][17]. - **Lead**: Weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19][20]. - **Nickel**: The price range has narrowed, and nickel prices have returned to narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Some Indonesian nickel projects' production capacity utilization is increasing [22][24]. - **Tin**: Prices weakened during the holiday. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [25][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Weak demand, with a weak performance in the futures market. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Panasonic is exiting the solar and energy storage business, affecting the industry [30][32]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price hit a new low since listing. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [30][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The cost center continues to move down, and the inventory build - up pattern restricts price rebounds. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, with wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policies [36][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Poor demand expectations, with prices fluctuating at low levels. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [40][41][44]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by macro factors, prices are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [45][48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and coking coal is affected by the sentiment of coal terminal desilting, also showing a weak trend. The trend strength of both is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [49][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Affected by the sentiment of forced desilting at ports, prices are oscillating weakly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [53][55]. Other Commodities - **Glass**: The price of glass original sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [56][57][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Positive spread arbitrage between months, with expanding processing margins. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply disruptions and trade negotiations affect the price [60][63][65]. - **PTA**: Long PTA and short SC. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The supply - demand pattern is changing, with some device maintenance [60][64][66]. - **MEG**: Long PTA and short MEG. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply is expected to increase, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory [60][66][67]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Vietnam's rubber export situation is changing, and the new supply is expected to increase gradually [68][70][72].

欧盟贸易官员：如果扩大关税范围，美国可以征收超过1000亿美元的关税 金十数据5月6日讯，欧盟最高贸易谈判代表表示，如果白宫对医药产品和半导体等商品的新调查导致更 多关税，美国可能会从欧盟收取超过1000亿美元的关税。欧盟委员会副主席谢夫乔维奇表示："目前的 情况是不可接受的，我们不能坐视不管。"美国官员目前以国家安全为由，正在研究对几个行业征收关 税的可能性，包括铜、木材和药品的进口。谢夫乔维奇说，如果所有可能的关税都实施，欧盟对美国出 口的约5490亿欧元（6212.8亿美元）将受到关税的影响。"预计美国现在可能会获得多达1000亿欧 元，"他说。 ...

港股铜业股震荡上行，万国黄金(03939.HK)涨超10%，中国黄金国际(02099.HK)涨4.6%，江西铜业股份 (00358.HK)、中国有色矿业(01258.HK)均涨超1%。 ...

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月6日） 1. 据上海航运交易所数据，截至2025年5月5日，上海出口集装箱结算运价指数（欧洲航线）报1379.07 点，与上期相比跌3.5%。 4. 印尼能源部官员Edi Wibowo周一表示，截至4月24日，印尼今年生物柴油消费量为444万升。在1月至 3月期间，生物柴油消费量为320万升。印尼今年生物柴油的棕榈油强制掺混比例为40%，高于去年的 35%。 5. 据CONAB，截至5月3日，2024/25年度巴西大豆收割率为97.7%，上周为94.8%，去年同期为94.3%， 五年均值为96.3%。 6. 美国农业部（USDA）周二凌晨公布的每周作物生长报告显示，截至5月4日当周，美国大豆种植率为 30%，此前市场预期为31%，此前一周为18%，去年同期为24%，五年均值为23%；出苗率为7%，上年 同期为8%，五年均值为5%。 7. 印度矿业部表示，2024-25财年原铝产量从2023-24财年的41.6万吨增至42万吨；2024-25财年精炼铜产 量环比增长12.6%，从2023-24财年的50.9万吨增至57.3万吨。 2. 据Mysteel，2025年04月2 ...

Group 1 - The company anticipates that tariffs initiated by President Trump will lead to a cost increase of 1%-3% [1]

0 1 观点摘要 0 2 宏观经济 0 3 盘面情况 0 4 供应和需求 0 5 总结和展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 观点摘要 01 沪铜月度报告 关税风暴中的铜，警惕库存危机 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-04-30 目录 Contents ➢ 特朗普关税政策反复无常暴露了美国纸老虎的本质，市场预测关税对全球经济影响将在5月逐渐显现，如果 后续中美对抗继续螺旋升级，全球经济衰退预期或再次重演，而在关税成本暴涨下，美国二次通胀概率大 增，降低美联储降息预期，美国6月国债兑付危机逼近，市场恐慌情绪或再次出现，届时市场风险资产或泥 沙俱下，铜将再次承压，但同时美国铜进口关税悬而未决，刺激贸易商抽干全球铜库存，要警惕国内铜库 存骤降带来的逼仓风险，铜深跌的可能性较小，短期回调蓄力后反而会弹的更高。 ➢ 短期建议铜前期多单逐渐止盈兑现，落袋为安，轻仓或者空仓过节。五一假期后，关注宏观经济数据指引， 若经济数据低于预期，中美对抗加剧，铜或二次探底，可等待铜价企稳后回调逢低再入场，若中美对抗缓 和，铜库存去化加速，铜重心或缓慢上移。中长期看，中美博弈进入新阶段，全球铜矿紧 ...

Group 1 - In April, copper prices initially fell to 72,000 yuan/ton before recovering to around 77,000 yuan/ton due to rising market risk aversion and subsequent easing of trade tensions by the U.S. government [2] - The U.S. is negotiating trade agreements with 15 to 18 key partners, with India likely to be the first to reach an agreement, while the trade negotiations with China are intensifying [3] - The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, with processing fees declining significantly, and major mining companies have lowered their production guidance for 2025 [4] Group 2 - The import of scrap copper from the U.S. has dropped sharply, with March imports falling to 22,000 tons, a 29% decrease, as China imposes high tariffs on U.S. goods [5] - Social copper inventory has decreased for eight consecutive weeks, with a total of 155,100 tons, reflecting a tightening supply and increasing domestic demand [6] - The domestic copper market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with increased production in the face of limited imports, and the operating rate of major copper rod enterprises has risen to 79.56% [6] Group 3 - Overall, the copper market is facing weak supply, but demand is marginally improving due to domestic policies and overseas exports, although the sustainability of this demand recovery is in question [8] - The high tariffs imposed by both the U.S. and China are expected to severely impact consumer demand for durable goods, with potential negative effects on future demand [8] - The progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations will be crucial for copper prices, which may continue to rise if negotiations go smoothly, but could face downward pressure if they stall [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-04-30 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250331 | 2025/03 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.50 | 50.20 | 50.80 | | 20250331 | 2025/03 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.80 | 50.40 | 53.00 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250401 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 51.20 | 50.80 | 51.10 | | 20250403 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 | % | 51.90 | 51.40 | 52.70 | | | | 活动指数 | | | | | | ...