值得注意的是，蒋睿补充道，近日白银价格回调的核心原因，还是在于彭博商品指数（BCOM）年度再 平衡引发了被动抛售。作为全球大宗商品核心基准的彭博商品指数于2026年1月8日至1月14日进行年度 权重调整。2025年，白银价格迎来爆发式上涨，使其在该指数中占比提升，而2026年目标权重将降至 4%以下。相关被动型基金为了符合新权重，需大额抛售白银持仓，直接构成白银回撤的核心压力。 2026年伊始，开年以来连涨3日的金银价格出现连续下跌。 机构看好金银资产长期表现 Choice数据显示，1月8日，黄金期货与白银期货的价格再度回调。截至当日15点发稿，COMEX黄金期 货价格跌至4440美元/盎司附近，盘中最低触及4423.6美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货价格回落到75美元/ 盎司附近，跌逾2%。受此影响，黄金、白银类基金净值也纷纷下挫，国投白银LOF当日跌幅相对较 大。 不过，机构普遍继续看好金银的长期投资价值。 短期回调的原因是什么？ 刘庭宇认为，在当前宏观环境下，美国出现滞胀的概率较高，欧洲主要经济体也同样面临财政状况恶化 与滞胀风险的双重压力。从历史数据来看，黄金在滞胀周期中，相对其他大类资产始终具备显著优 ...

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver ETF, reported a holding of 16,099.83 tons of silver as of January 7, a decrease of 18.33 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On January 7, the spot silver price closed at $78.17 per ounce, down 3.74%, with an intraday high of $82.73 and a low of $76.32 [1] Group 2 - Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will undergo a one-week annual rebalancing from January 9 to 15, 2026, which will trigger over $14 billion in precious metal sell-offs [3] - The weight of silver in the index will be significantly reduced from 9.6% to 3.94%, forcing funds and ETFs tracking the index to sell large amounts of silver positions [3] - Deutsche Bank and TD Securities estimate that between $7.1 billion and $7.7 billion in silver sell-offs will occur in the next two weeks, equivalent to 13% of the total open interest in the COMEX silver market [3]

| 1月8日 | 收盘价（元/千克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 18450 | -5.90% | 2142360 | 281631 | 美国务卿称下周将与丹麦举行会晤，讨论格陵兰岛议题。 美国12月ADP就业人数增加4.1万人，低于市场预期的中值4.7万人。 【白银期货最新行情】 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 数据显示，1月8日上海白银现货价格报价19420元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（18450元/千克）升水 970元/千克。 彭博大宗商品指数(BCOM)将进行为期一周的年度再平衡调整（2026年1月9日至15日）。这场牵动全球 大宗商品市场神经的指数权重调整，将令超过140亿美元的贵金属卖盘涌入市场。根据彭博公布的2026 年权重配置，白银权重将从目前市场权重的9.6%大幅下调至3.94%，意味着追踪该指数的基金和ETF将 被迫抛售大量白银头寸。 泽连斯基称有望在2026年上半年结束俄乌冲突。 【机构观点】 金属全面下撤，市场情绪降温，沪银冲高回落。沪银溢价收敛至1400元/克，国内有所降温 ...

Group 1 - Bloomberg Commodity Index (BOCM) will undergo rebalancing from January 9 to January 15, with adjustments in commodity weightings [1] - The index includes six major categories: energy, industrial metals, precious metals, grains, livestock, and soft commodities, with a maximum single commodity weight of 15% [1] - Gold's weight will decrease from 20.4% to 14.9%, while silver's weight will drop from 9.6% to 3.94%, leading to significant sell-offs in both metals [1] Group 2 - An estimated $7.7 billion in sell orders for silver and $6 to $7 billion for gold are expected due to the rebalancing, based on the current and target weights [1] - The sell-off is attributed to the need for tracking funds to adjust their positions in response to the index changes, potentially leading to market panic [1] - The impact on gold and silver prices may result in significant adjustments in the coming weeks, with the effects expected to dissipate after the new weights are implemented on January 15 [1] Group 3 - Current gold prices are influenced by risk events, with a recent upward trend characterized by a lack of strong momentum, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish forces [2] - The key resistance level for gold is identified at $4,480, with potential downward movement expected if this level is breached [4] - The market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with traders cautious about entering positions ahead of the index weight adjustments [4] Group 4 - The strategy suggested is to follow the downward trend, using $4,480 as a stop-loss level, with targets set for $4,430 and potentially $4,410 to $4,406 [5] - A significant correction is deemed necessary to pave the way for a bull market in 2026, emphasizing the cyclical nature of market trends [5]

Market Overview - Financial markets are experiencing a significant downturn, with the Asia-Pacific markets showing a notable correction [1] - The Nikkei 225 index closed down by 1.63% [1] A-shares and Hong Kong Market - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are also facing a clear pullback, with the ChiNext index down over 1% and the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.8% and 1.97% respectively [3] US Futures Market - US stock index futures are collectively declining, indicating a negative sentiment in the market [4] Metal Market Performance - The metal market is experiencing widespread declines, with international spot silver dropping over 3% and domestic silver futures down over 6% [6] - International spot gold fell by 0.69%, while domestic gold futures dropped nearly 1% [6] Specific Metal Prices - London gold is priced at 4425.480, down by 0.69%, and London silver at 75.795, down by 3.30% [7] - COMEX gold is at 4428.0, down by 0.77%, and COMEX silver at 75.580, down by 2.62% [7] - In the domestic futures market, polysilicon main contracts hit the limit down, while nickel main contracts fell over 7% and industrial silicon dropped over 4% [6][8] Additional Metal Futures - The main contracts for aluminum and copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange both fell by 3.52% [8] - The main contract for tin decreased by 2.81% [8]

Core Viewpoint - China will implement strict export controls on silver starting January 1, 2026, elevating its management level to that of rare earths, aiming to prioritize domestic demand and ensure supply chain security for key industries [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The new policy will maintain export controls until at least the end of 2027, providing a stable strategic adjustment mechanism for long-term planning by enterprises [1]. - The export management will continue under a licensing system, with an increase in the number of state-owned trading enterprises involved, indicating no substantial changes in the policy framework [1][2]. Group 2: Industrial Demand and Supply - China is the world's largest silver refining country, with an annual production of approximately 3,300 tons, which is insufficient to meet the industrial demand of around 8,000 tons, leading to a focus on domestic supply for high-tech industries [2][3]. - Silver's role has shifted from a traditional precious metal to a critical strategic resource, necessitating enhanced export management to secure raw material supplies for key industries [2][3]. Group 3: Market Impact and Price Trends - The anticipated export controls may lead to a global supply reduction of 4,500 to 5,000 tons annually, exacerbating existing supply shortages in the market [4]. - Analysts expect silver prices to fluctuate between $66 and $85 per ounce in the first quarter of 2026, with potential upward pressure later in the year, possibly challenging the $100 mark [4]. - Current high silver prices are driven by low global inventories and strong paper demand, with market tensions highlighted by the ongoing consumption of COMEX inventories and low domestic futures stock [5].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are preparing for the upcoming annual rebalancing of commodity indices, leading to significant sell-offs in gold and silver futures, causing prices to decline for the second consecutive day [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - Spot gold prices fell below $4,420 per ounce, with a nearly 1% drop in the previous trading day, while silver prices decreased over 3% to $76.11 per ounce [1]. - The rebalancing is expected to trigger approximately $6.8 billion in silver futures sell-offs, equivalent to 12% of the total open interest in COMEX silver futures [1][2]. - The scale of the fund flows during this rebalancing is unprecedented, according to Citigroup strategist Kenny Hu [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - Gold and silver prices have not shown significant corrections despite recording their best annual performance since 1979, supported by central bank purchases and inflows into gold ETFs [2]. - In November, global central banks added a net 45 tons of gold, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month, which has been a crucial support for gold prices [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Traders are focusing on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, as weak data could strengthen expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, benefiting non-yielding precious metals [2]. - Despite short-term price pressures from the rebalancing, silver is expected to have stronger upward momentum in the long term [3].

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will undergo an annual rebalancing adjustment from January 9 to January 15, 2026, impacting the global commodity market significantly [1] - The weight of silver in the index will be reduced from 9.6% to 3.94%, leading to forced sell-offs of substantial silver positions by funds and ETFs tracking the index [1] - Deutsche Bank and TD Securities estimate that between $7.1 billion and $7.7 billion worth of silver will be sold in the next two weeks, which is approximately 13% of the total open interest in the COMEX silver market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The metal market is expected to be the most prominent sector in commodities for 2025, with silver and copper experiencing significant price increases due to tight supply, resource competition, and investment demand, following a slowdown in gold prices after three years of growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - COMEX copper has achieved a monthly increase for five consecutive months, with a monthly growth rate expanding to nearly 8% [1]. - COMEX silver surged over 30% in December, leading to an annual increase of approximately 170% [1]. - The trend of "gold as an anchor, silver and copper in motion" is likely to continue in the foreseeable future, driven by the global trend of "de-dollarization" and the rapid development of new industries such as AI and renewable energy [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for silver is being driven by the rapid growth in the photovoltaic industry and electronic components, leading to a structural shortage in the global silver market for five consecutive years [6]. - Copper demand is stabilizing due to the AI boom, which increases computational needs, while supply constraints are reinforcing copper price stability [6][7]. Group 3: Price Volatility and Future Outlook - Despite the inherent logic supporting metals, short-term volatility is expected to decrease after a year of high fluctuations in 2025 [7]. - The gold price is projected to reach $5,000, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years [7]. - The copper market is transitioning from a tight balance to a shortage expectation, with prices around $12,000, indicating that further increases will require new narratives [7][8]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The metal market is moving towards a phase of "value reshaping," where refined risk management will replace simple directional bets [8]. - Investors can utilize diversified futures tools, such as micro silver and copper futures, to capture long-term allocation opportunities in strategic assets while navigating a period of reduced volatility [8].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a liquidity shock triggered by the rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), leading to significant price declines in gold, silver, and other metals [1][15][17]. Group 1: Market Adjustments - On January 8, the precious metals market saw a collective adjustment, with spot gold dropping to around $4,415, COMEX silver falling over 2%, and spot silver declining more than 3% to a low of $75.58 [1]. - The rebalancing process, which began on January 8 and will continue until January 14, involves a reduction in the weight of gold from 20.4% to 14.9% and silver from 9.6% to 3.94% in the BCOM index [15][18]. Group 2: Market Impact - Deutsche Bank and TD Securities anticipate a surge of $7.7 billion in silver sell orders over the next two weeks, equating to 13% of the total open interest in the COMEX silver market [15]. - The rebalancing is expected to result in futures sell-offs that will account for 9% of total silver positions and 3% of total gold positions [15]. Group 3: Historical Context - The decline in precious metals follows a rare and significant price surge, with gold increasing over 70% and silver rising nearly 150% in 2025, leading to a fragile market environment [17]. - The rebalancing is characterized as a large-scale technical sell-off, with analysts noting that the sell pressure on silver will be the most significant, followed by aluminum and gold [18][19]. Group 4: Future Projections - Estimates suggest that a sale of 2.4 million ounces of gold could lead to a price drop of 2.5% to 3%, depending on the sensitivity model used [19]. - Analysts predict that the upcoming sell orders will lead to a substantial repricing of silver, exacerbated by a liquidity vacuum in the market [20].